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Future of the Timber Industry

Started by BlaBla, August 07, 2003, 09:11:03 PM

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BlaBla

I'm of the younger generation and am looking to the future of timber. Will timber keep its share of the market for the future?
Is demand high now or is there too much available supply? How is the future looking overall?

Thanks

Ron Wenrich

That's a pretty good question.  

I think the future for timber products is good.  There really isn't much that you can use that can replace wood.  For construction, there isn't much to beat plywood and dimension lumber.  Steel may make inroads as a replacement, but I don't see it as a universal replacement.

Plastics can be made to look like wood.   In many cases, they will wear better than wood.  But, plastic is an oil based product.  Oil supllies continue to dwindle, pushing prices higher.  Plastic will not be an economic replacement for wood.

There has been talk of replacement fiber for the making of paper, notabley hemp and kenaf.  The problem arises in the seasonality of the growing season and the storage of fiber.  Wood continues to deliver as a year round supply.  With the higher use of computers, paper demand has increased, not diminished.

If global warming is a problem and carbon sequestration becomes a goal, then growing trees will become a priority.  To keep a lock on the carbon, then trees will have to be cut and stored (read that as used) to enable other trees to be grown.  Faster growth will be needed, and that means more managed forests - good for foresters.

Logging will take on a different appearance.  I think clearcutting will probably wane as a predominant type of harvest in many areas.  Mechanized felling and skidding will be more the norm, meaning less workers will be needed.  Logging damage will be minimized as machines are being developed that make less impact in the woods.

Milling will probably continue at large milling complexes.  This will keep unit cost production down.  But, there will be a push for standardization of the resource.  Something that isn't necessarily good for the forests.  

Different areas of the world will need different types of forests.  Wood is still the number fuel for heating and cooking in many areas of the world.  A new source will have to be found to allow those areas to recover.

Industrialization in other countries will put heavy demands on their resources.  That may or may not be good for our export markets.  Russia has vast, untapped reserves and is closer those markets.

The pressure will be put on our forests to get them to almost a parklike state in the West - no fires and limited clearcuts.  Eastern forests will have the constraints of urbanization put on them in many areas.  Think green backgrounds.  Southern forests will be pushed away from plantations and towards "natural" forests.  Biodiversity will continue to be the trend.  

How well industry can adapt to these trends is a question and a challenge.  We need to figure out how we can accomodate public demands for forests and industry demands for fiber.

The biggest challenge facing the industry is the use of low grade material.  There are growing amounts of this, but limited use.   Technology will play a key role, as will industry and consumer attitude.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Kevin

What we see up here is the farming method where the government clears entire townships and mono cultures jack pine for its fast maturity rate.
This will  ensure there is a supply for future demand.

Jeff

Thanks Ron. Lots of Insight.

Blah Blah, I think our Industry can have a very bright future when we have someone of your age with an interest, asking such a question in the manner that you have.

Thank you for the great question, and welcome to the Forestry Forum. Glad to have you as a member.
Just call me the midget doctor.
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Commercial circle sawmill sawyer in a past life for 25yrs.
Ezekiel 22:30

Frank_Pender

Welcome, BlaBla.  Nice to have some more young thinkers around here.  That brings me to the point of what Jeff had to say.  With that kind of questioning and seeking of new a  innovative ideas, such as Ron was discussing, I too feel that the global economics  of wood fiber use will be on an incline for at least the next 150 to 200 years. It will truly be a challenge to find a material that is as durable and yet still be a resouce that is quickly and easily renewable sucvh as wood fiber.  One might equate it to what many were trying to do in the centuries past; change led into gold.

   Good stewardship is going to be one of the main keys to the future of wood fiber production.  Much of that idea begins with how we small woodlot owners cause outselves to be percieved in not only the local, state or even regional, but on a global basis.  

  Here in Oregon a little over 51% of the forested land is owned by small woodlot people.   We all need to take an accounting of the influence and productability that the small woodlot owners possess.  Getting involved in your local woodlot chapters, state legislative issues with wood fiber all helps to inhance a continued postive spin of fiber production and sustainablity.  I guess I had better goet of the soapbos, it is getting a bit slick. ;D  
Frank Pender

BlaBla


Thanks

And I ran into this article surfing the web. Has stuff like the emerald ash borer caused severe problems nationwide. Do you all think this will be controlled by the quarantine? Anybody here involved with this project of milling the infested trees?

BlaBla


Ron Scott

Practicing sustainable forestry will continue to provide and improve quantity and quality of the "renewable" resource to meet demand.

The quarantine area on the emarald ash bore has been extended to some more counties. No fire wood can be taken in to Canada. No controls have been found to date by the research currently in progress. A serious problem for ash, at present.

Check the Forum Search for more info on the emarald ash bore.
~Ron

hosslog

Ron wrote"Logging damage will be minimized as machines are being developed that make less impact in the woods."
You just described horse logging and that has been around for years ;) I really don't think any thing manmade will have less impact than a team of horses. Not to mention that any technology is going to come with a hefty price tag and a team of horses already cost less than putting new tires on a skidder.

shopteacher

And you get those free horse apples to help with the regrowth. :D :D
Proud owner of a LT40HDSE25, Corley Circle mill, JD 450C, JD 8875, MF 1240E
Tilt Bed Truck  and well equipted wood shop.

Ron Scott

Horse logging can also cause damage if not well managed.
~Ron

hosslog

Yup a sloppy operator is a sloppy operator :( . I guess what I don't understand is why that forester/managers tend to ignore horses as a management tool but try to reinvent  "low impact " methods and equipment.?                      

Tom

Hosslog,
As new generations are born they look upon the way the older generation did things as a rung in the ladder.  That means, in their mind, that things only get better.  I've had teachers that think like that and forget to study the history of how things have been done in the past and whether they still work.

Contrary to popular belief, old fishing lures still catch fish too. :D

Kevin

I think I have the horses beat for low impact ...



But time is money and nobody will hire me.  :D

BlaBla

How much longer does using horses take than conventional methods?

hosslog

Cutting and skidding by myself I can do a load a week, With someone cutting for me I can do 2 to 3 loads in a week. 2 teams working together  with a cutter can easily do a load or more a day. Not real impressive  production wise when compared to mechanical methods. The real advantage is the fact that there is less long term damage to the ecosystem of the stand  using horses.

hosslog

Kevin New ideas take time to catch on, maybe you just need to sellit more. :D

Kevin

There seems to be an increase in the number of loggers horse logging these days.
There was a television show on last week that featured a horse logger and when I spoke with Ron about it last weekend he informed me that there were a few in northern Michigan.
Definately a viable alternative to commercial methods where impact on the land is a concern.

hosslog

Tom,That is the attitude that I am talking about. And I don't normally say to much , but when some one says"trying to develop a low impact logging system" Its kinda like saying they are are inventing the wheel. Most of the North East had been logged twice before apractical means of mounting an engine to a transmission was developed. I am not dead set against skidders, I have worked right along beside them with my horses.But just like your old lures there are always places where they will work better than anything else.

beenthere

Any cost numbers ($/mbf) to log with horses?  
Around here, seems like the horse loggers do it for exhibition, and no one stays with it to finally make a good business, i.e. profit.

Maybe less impact (seems I have heard that per mbf, the impact of the horses is higher than with rubber tires) with horses, but maybe too few board feet are (can be) logged. I don't know if this fits the old fishing lure analogy, but something to consider.

Helicopters may have less impact, and are used in some situations to log, but I don't think there is a payoff there (except Govt. payments using our tax $$'s).  Maybe when the value of the product gets relatively higher than what it is now, there will be new, low impact developments (including horses maybe) that will come along. Right now, I think we are seeing the lowest impact for the current value of the timber in the woods.

south central Wisconsin
It may be that my sole purpose in life is simply to serve as a warning to others

smwwoody

QuoteThat's a pretty good question.  

.  Russia has vast, untapped reserves and is closer those markets.
.

Ron,

I is sad to say but when I left Russia 5 years ago Japan was moving in and to start a systematic rapeing of thier forests. between Japans grab the biggest chunk of the profit at no regaurd for someone elses forest method and the very very poor russian forest management program it may not be there for long.  not to mention the first 2 logs from most trees have more tramp metal in them than I cared to even try to saw around. from the wars   then there is the radiation levels of every thing within a 500 Km radius of chearnoble.  It can never leave that area.  and that is just one of the ones we heard about.  all of the test sites in the far north east are the same.  3 years  there in the forest products industry was more that enough for me :-/
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beenthere

Wouldn't that metal in those trees have 50-60 years of growth(over the metal), possibly meaning that there might be some quality wood before hitting the tramp metal? I know that Europe (France, Belgium, Germany, and others) has been fighting this problem for years. Apparently some sophisticated metal detectors used to find this hidden "treasure". Knowing its depth and boxing the heart are probably part of the decisions they need to make. Great looking trees with some real hidden problems.
However, I would think most of Russia's wood resource would be outside any war zone, but do not know that for sure. They had heavy fighting West of Moscow in the late thirty's, but once they started pushing the Germans back across Poland, there hasn't been much action since (or am I missing a lot of history here?) in their vast forests.  
south central Wisconsin
It may be that my sole purpose in life is simply to serve as a warning to others

smwwoody

I spent most of my time in Belarus That is where we set up most of the Kilns.  there was a lot of fighting in these areas and yes you are right as soon as you get east of moscow you run out of the War damaged trees  But russias Great ??? war machine covered most of thier country that has roads which is not a lot. testing every type of wepon they could dream up during the cold war days
Full time Mill Manager
Cleereman head rig
Cooper Scragg
McDonugh gang saw
McDonugh edger
McDonugh resaw
TS end trim
Pendu slab recovery system
KJ4WXC

Ron Wenrich

My understanding of the Russian forests are that they have vast, untapped areas in Siberia.  This is well away from any metal or radiation areas.  They dwarf softwood reserves in most other countries.

The big problem is transportation and regeneration.  Most of this stuff is virgin timber, but is small in size.  Growing seasons are pretty short.  What effect will clearcutting have in the area?

Japan does pretty well trash a country when looking for sawlogs.  But, their economy has been on the skids for well over 11 years.  They aren't the big players they were 20 years ago.  

China is the one to watch.  Their economy and production capacity will squash anything in their way.  Cheap labor is their calling card.

China has recently put in a policy where someone can "lease" a homesite from the government for 70 years.  This allows for home ownership.  What kind of demand do you think this is going to create?
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

oakiemac

I can't comment as intelligently as some have on the future of the timber industry, but let me say that the state of the forest (at least here in Michigan) is improving. It's hard to believe but we actually have more forest land in Michigan now then we did twenty years ago. A lot of marginal farm land has reverted back through sucession into forested land. I saw an airel photo of my property form 1934 and it was all farm land. Now it is mostly forest made up of Red Maple, Elm, Cherry, and in the higher ground, Red Oak.
For the timber industry to survive we need good forest managment and that includes harvesting and clear cutting. It just has to be done in an intelligent manner. The enviromentalist, tree huggers can't seem to understand this concept. They are against all forms of logging yet I bet most of their houses are framed with wood. In this society, they probably don't even realize where the 2X4's come from. Like most city kids have no idea where meat, eggs, and milk come from. For all they know there is a machine in the back of the super market that spits this stuff out!
Well enough of my rambling. If we can all use our heads, I think the future for timber industry is bright!
Mobile Demension sawmill, Bobcat 873 loader, 3 dry kilns and a long "to do" list.

smwwoody

Ron you hit it right on the head with Siberia.  I didn't make it into those areas but form what i learned while I was in russiais it was just like you said.  An 11" DBH sidka spruce was a very old tree.  china is somethin to worry about they were also there as I was leaving. As for thier cheep labor remember that in a manufacturing community in china some of the first english words a child will learn are "Pennsylvania Cherry".
Full time Mill Manager
Cleereman head rig
Cooper Scragg
McDonugh gang saw
McDonugh edger
McDonugh resaw
TS end trim
Pendu slab recovery system
KJ4WXC

Ron Wenrich

Woody

When I was at the lumberman's museum over the 4th, I talked to one of the state guys that is in marketing PA hardwoods.  He gave me some scary stories about China.

He was in a huge plant that would put any of ours to shame.  They were working in less than 25% of the plant.  Lots of capacity.

China is going to start marketing furniture stateside, under their own name.   Currently, China makes the furniture and it is marketed un a US company.  More dollars for the Chinese, less for us.

China likes the cherry, only because it sells it back to the US in secondary products.  What they want for their own use is 40 containerloads a month of PA walnut.   :o  I doubt if we even produce that much in the state in a month.  They use it in their homes to break up their native white woods.

Oakiemac

I don't mean to come down on you, but the industry is going to have to change.  Its pretty common in the industry to think that no one understands forest management better than those in the industry.  All other opinions should be left at the door.

I contend we really don't know what effect we really have on the land.  Most of the hardwood areas have yet to get through their first rotation since those fields have converted to trees.  Thats kinda like saying that we want to keep everything in corn since it did so well last year.  Keep it up, and you deplete your soil.

Forest management is still a pretty new.  It has been around about 125 years in the US, but hasn't been widely practiced.  I remember when they told us that fire was bad for the woods.  Current thinking is totally opposite.

There are more products in the forest than lumber.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Tom

I read Oakiemac's post as saying that he believed we needed to work on forestry management.

I think he's right and I think we must listen to anyone who has  an "idea" about management.  The Foresters and those in the industry are educating themselves because it is their livelihood.  There are many in this world that are just "against" everything.  If you read between the lines, they are saying I have mine now nobody else should have any.  That's the fringe of the enviro's or Wacko's.

Ron, you're right about this being a "new" venture.  Trees grow relatively slowly when compared to a human life.  It's the Foresters, in my opinion, that are making us aware that the goals should not be immediate satisfaction.  It will take a long time to determine what to do right and to determine just what the goals should be too.  It is the people in the industry that will eventually solve most of the problems because they are the ones working on them.  They have their livelihoods and futures at stake to make sure that future generations have futures.  These folks who do nothing but spout negativity and are against anything, climbing on whatever anti-establishment band-wagon that happens to be passing at the moment, are basically muddying the water and making intelligent decisions difficult for those who are actually doing something

I know that there is some good that comes from anything but there is also a point of diminishing returns that is quickly reached by factions who are spouting rather than doing.  I like the term "Lead, Follow or Get-out-of-my-way"

It's so easy to be so involved in the politics of the issues that we forget that our industries have educated, dedicated and intelligent people working on these problems.  Some, we are lucky to have on the Forum, but, the world is full of them.  

I believe that they have the education to solve the problems and stand behind them.

OneWithWood

I have a lot of faith in the private landowner.  The majority of our forests are owned by individuals.  The trend recently has been for the private landowners to band together under affiliations such as the Tree Farm System, Forestry and Woodland Owners Associations, etc.   These folks care about their forest and educate themselves to determine the best management practices for their particular forest.  Wonderful forums such as this one provide the opportunity to expand that knowledge and communicate with other landowners.  It is people like these who have a vision of the forests for future generations that will ultimately lead to improved forest conditions for all.  
One With Wood
LT40HDG25, Woodmizer DH4000 Kiln

Ron Wenrich

I didn't mean to single oakimac out, but I've seen the arguement used in a lot of posts in a lot of forums.

Lead, follow or get out of the way may be a good way to go, as long as everyone is headed in the same direction.  I'm know we're not all heading in the same direction, or if we even know which is the right direction.

I'm not sold on the idea that industry knows best when it comes to managing woodlots.  In my state, the state forests are much better managed than either private or corporate lands.  They also manage for a lot more than commercial interests.  The industry has removed the state from giving any resource assistance, other than information.

Industry may be able to solve problems, but there is always a corporate bias.  Their goals are very short term as compared to the landowner or the forest.  They shoulder very little risk in the growing of trees, but have taken on the responsibility of giving management advice.

I don't think that everyone that disagrees with current commercial management should be labeled a "whacko".  Some of these guys are coming from some pretty decent science.  Those are the ones I listen to and see if they have some merit to their arguements.  Some do, some don't.  I have changed my views on some things by looking at the science.  You just have to get beyond the emotion - on both sides.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

oakiemac

I agree that the industry as a whole might not always do the right thing, but there are responsible and intelligent thinkers that are part of the "industry". Just as the deer hunter opts not to shoot a doe in order to increase the size of the herd, the forestry industry needs to harvest in a manner that is good for the whole forest. Some times this can include clear cutting. What often is visually ugly to us is actually good for the land and the critters that live there. I have an article at home by a phd scienctist that helped start Green Peace. He now advocates clear cutting!
I think all wood lot owners can do their part by learning and practicing what is best for their land. The study of silviculture is doing just that.
Mobile Demension sawmill, Bobcat 873 loader, 3 dry kilns and a long "to do" list.

jrdwyer

My job as a forestry consultant pretty much depends on the hard work of loggers and sawmillers who buy the trees I measure and sell. I am glad there are still young people interested in entering the field because the industry workers are getting older.

The resource is plentiful, on both public and private lands. The public lands generally have a hands-off approach for the time being, but that may change as the fire control costs get higher every year. Private lands are where the action currently is concerning timber harvesting and forest management.

Some serious concerns facing the timber industry are:

1. Secondary wood products being mostly produced overseas (China) reducing the need for US sourced lumber. We are at 50% imports right now for wood furniture. I was in Sam's Club the other day and saw a banner advertising  a "Maple hutch." I looked closely and the wood was not maple but rubberwood from SE Asia. In smaller print below the main banner were the words "Maple finish." To the general public, I believe the wood species isn't really that important. And if the wood species isn't that important, then cheaper woods from the tropcis will have an edge being closer to the production point (China).

2. Huge reserves of softwoods in Canada and Russia. Right now we have a big tarrif on Canadian softwood lumber and Russia is only getting its act together as far as production and exporting. So if countries sell their public timber at below prevailing market prices through long-term contracts in order to help support their own industires, then won't this have a negative effect on our own timber industry? Check out all the primed pine mouldings from Chile and New Zealand at Home Depot. My guess is that the trees used to make these products were almost "given away" to the local industries in the name of jobs.

How can US mills compete against this when our public's attitude is to treat National Forests as National Parks and private forest landowners just don't sell if the market prices are very low?

I don't mean to sound too negative, but "free trade" and large multi-national corporations are shaping the nature and source of the end products of the timber and secondary wood industries.

Bro. Noble

Today I met a couple of nice young employees with the Mo. Dept. of Conservation.  They are setting up plots to study the health and growth of Mo. Forests.

Wanted to let it be known that Mo. is doing something for the future and also to move this thread to the top where they can find it easier.  I told them about this topic and invited them to look in.
milking and logging and sawing and milking

Tillaway

The future of the industry... I have been wondering that myself.

One of the biggest threat to forestry, or any natural resource management, is regulation through the initiative process.  Making resource management decisions through the ballot box is detrimental to both the industry as well as the resource.  At any one time here in California there are bills before the state assemble and senate that could wipe out the timber industry, currently there are five last time I checked.

The iniative process requires voters to make very important decisions in a information "vacuum".  The only story that gets told is the one with the most money or carries the most emotional impact.  Hence trapping bans, bear baiting prohibition, heritage tree rules, cougar hunting bans, Oregons measure 64 (defeated) that would have wiped the timber industry from the state.

We, all of us, have to try to get our message out to the folks that have lost touch with land.  Basically what I see is a culture clash, Urban verses Rural.  Until the two cultures establish good communications resource mangement will be in peril.
Making Tillamook Bay safe for bait; one salmon at a time.

Scott

"Hence trapping bans, bear baiting prohibition, heritage tree rules, cougar hunting bans"


 With the exception of an all out trapping ban those regulations actually sound like good things.Around here you can only use traps by the name of Konnibear (?) or something like that. Theyre more humane as they strangle the animal instead of latching onto its leg and holding it.

David_c

a connibaer trap is actually a kill trap animal puts head through releases trigger trap catches animal behind neck. and you have some nice fur another renewable resourse. people dont want touched. i am sick and tiered of people thinking were not part of nature put somehow above it and we suddent touch anything. bull****

Tillaway

Scott
Yep they sound good, thats the problem.  There is absolutely no science that supports it.  Pure sentiment.  When you base resource management decisions on sentiment, you get what we have in California.  Not pretty.

You can only use live traps in California such as the "Have a Heart" traps.  The problem is you get what want in them you still have to kill it.  Most folks just drown the critters since it eliminates shooting your traps full of holes.
Making Tillamook Bay safe for bait; one salmon at a time.

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