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Jobs vs Economy

Started by Furby, December 26, 2007, 08:47:46 PM

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Furby

I've been meaning to ask this for a while and trying to figure out just how to do so.
Now that more and more folks around the country are seeing the falling economy in the US, how are the jobs?

Here's what I'm looking for:
Roughly where are you speaking from (state/county)?
What type of jobs are you speaking of?
How are those jobs doing and how do you think they will be doing in a few years?

bitternut

Seems to be lots of jobs. There must be or we would not have a few million illegals running around the country.

DanG

Well, I ain't totally sure what you're asking, but I'm saying that from Gadsden County, Florida. ;D

I'm not convinced that the US economy is falling, but it is moving in some direction.  Things shift with the times, and the times are shifting right now.  This is the sort of time the Gov't workers and others in stable business seem like the smart ones.  When times are booming, they tend to look lackluster because they aren't cashing in on the dollar frenzy.  If you intend to spend your working years toiling away for a wage, your choice is pretty much a crapshoot.  You can do like I did and work for a stable corporation for 34 years, and see all your retirement security yanked out from under you at the last minute.  Or, you can go it on your own and risk having all you've worked for zapped by a lawsuit or a change in technology, or your own loss of health.  

Construction is a field that offers some big paydays, along with some lean times.  Trucking seems to be lucrative, if your name is J.B. Hunt.  Maybe the tire business or truck repair would be the way to go.  Who knows?  The only thing I can say for sure is, you better be putting something aside for the future, because you never know what the future will bring.  Don't go into debt, and don't fail to save something out of every paycheck, whether you're slinging burgers or brokering mortgages.
"I don't feel like an old man.  I feel like a young man who has something wrong with him."  Dick Cavett
"Beat not thy sword into a plowshare, rather beat the sword of thine enemy into a plowshare."

J_T

Furby  Here Ky Tenn border If it weren't for Goodyear at Union City Tenn and two chicken plucking plants neer us you couldn't park on any bank parking lot. Of course we got MTD at Martin Tenn and a few other. It's bad and could get worse fast  :-\ Now I been out Colorado way and they booming  I mean booming had to have some payment money  :'( Got me some Me and the boss didn't gee haw to well  >:( They paying truck drivers 50 & 60 bucks an hour if you got your own truck they pay fuel & plates ect be sure you got a good sleeper cause there is no room in the inn  :o. Building is booming too This be at Rifle Co Halaburton got more trucks there than you can count . Grey Wolf got a bunch of rigs just a drilling 24/7 They think 10 to 15 more years of this .If I were younger I would of stayed may have to go back in the summer . Yep we stood on a little hill one night and counted 11 rigs Ps that hill was around 11thousand foot it was 7 miles of road  and took 1 hour 45 minnets to get there wide open.
Jim Holloway

sawguy21

The economy is strong here and trades jobs are plentiful but the nay sayers are spouting that it will end sooner than later due to the slumping U.S. market. I went through the oil boom collapse in Alberta in 1981 and don't want to do that again.
old age and treachery will always overcome youth and enthusiasm

Furby

This is what I'm looking for.
I want to see where the jobs are and aren't and what those jobs are.
Also what you feel the future holds for those jobs.


By all major indicators nation wide, the economy is falling.
Local economys may be stable or rising and by looking at the jobs, that's what I'm looking too compare around the country.

Trucking on average nation wide has been falling like a rock.
Between the slowing economy and high fuel prices, truckers and trucking companies are scaling back where ever they can. It also has historicly followed the economy perfectly and it is.

logwalker

Keep your powder dry boys, the tough times are just getting started. With the current crop of idiots in Washington we don't stand a chance. Sorry if that viewpoint depresses anybody. One bit of advice if anyone cares to listen: Be a jack of many trades. The one thing they can't outsource is construction. In the words of Sophie  Tucker"s depression era song..."keep Smilin' Thru"   :) :) :)
Let's all be careful out there tomorrow. Lt40hd, 22' Kenworth Flatbed rollback dump, MM45B Mitsubishi trackhoe, Clark5000lb Forklift, Kubota L2850 tractor

Kansas

I think the hardest part of predicting the economy of the future rests on one thing....whats the dollar going to do? I personally think it will continue to collapse over the next few years, with the usual spikes and dips, but the general trend will be down.  If the dollar continues to get weaker, here is what I think will happen.
1).   Energy.   The low dollar will keep oil prices high, no matter how much or little we use. Oil services, drilling etc. will be very strong.  No matter who gets elected president, you will see a heavy emphasis on alternative energy sources. There will be a lot of spending on new technology, be it wind, solar, fuel cell, etc. New technology means jobs manufacturing those products. Wether you believe in global warming or not, that doesnt change the fact that spending, and jobs, in those areas, are coming.
2)  Agriculture.   A low dollar, plus the ethanol craze, means a very strong economy. I think you will see all agriculture commodity prices strong, and the low dollar will also eventually lift the meat industry. Its kind of hard to imagine strong beef exports right now, but I think in a couple of years, you will see very strong demand on all meats. One bright spot in manufacturing right now is agriculture machinery, and I  think that will continue to be very strong.
3). Commodities in general.   A cheap dollar will make the price of metals high, and I think it will eventually lift up the price of basics in this country-including logs and lumber. I know with the current train wreck of prices in the forestry industry its hard to imagine that, but a weak dollar will eventually lift those prices. It might take 2-4 years, but I do think good times in the sawmill/logging businesses are on the way.
4). Building.. residential housing.... I would hate to own a hammer, its going to be awful for quite a while.  Commercial construction-plants etc. should be fairly strong. With the changes of the weaker dollar, new manufacturing plants will have to be built to accomodate new industries.
I think you will see a good upturn of exports and the manufacture of heavy equipment, higher tech equipment. I think anything associated with manufacturing low tech  products will be gone. No matter what you think of immigrants, legal or otherwise, we are losing the cheap labor pool they provide. Its not talked about that much in the news, but with the hostile climate towards illegals, plus the fact that the american dollar isnt worth near what it was when they send those dollars back home, a lot of illegals are headed back south, or other directions, for that matter.
5). Military Spending..  Again, no matter who gets elected president, they are going to be confronted with a falling dollar, a whopping bill for our past wars that we have put on credit,  a serious budget deficit. Eventually, its going to have to be dealt with-to some extent, the rest of the world is making us deal with it by devaluing our dollar. My guess is, you will see serious cutbacks in military spending. It might be a few years down the line, but it is coming.
6). Health Care. We keep getting older.... A lot more dollars, a lot more spending.
Thats what my crystal ball says, bear in mind this advice is worth exactly what you paid for it.

Bibbyman

In our area(Mid-MO), the jobs are construction and service – especially health services.

You can't hardly throw your hat out the window as you drive down the road without it landing on a new housing development,  shopping mall, or something.  We had a nuclear power plant go in in the early 70's.  The whole area just exploded with new growth.  Lots of high-paying jobs and people that wasn't afraid to spend it. Now they are planning to put in a second one.

We have the state hospital in our town (lucky us). And there are a dozen other big hospitals in our area plus countless retirement homes, etc. All are short of health care providers and staff of all kinds.  The prison system is a big employer too.

Then every pizza place, fast food joint, and gas station has a sign up wanting help.
Wood-Mizer LT40HDE25 Super 25hp 3ph with Command Control and Accuset.
Sawing since '94

customsawyer

I don't have any answers as far as what jobs there are and all of that. My thoughts on the matter are that alot of the country is going through what the southeastern forestry industry went through about 8 years ago.
If you are in a certain job market you might have to go out and learn a new trade or get a different job to make ends meet. This will mean that you will go through lean times as you learn that trade or work your way up through a new job. If you are one of the lucky ones that are in a work field that is booming, brace yourself as the only thing that is constant is constant change.

Two LT70s, Nyle L200 kiln, 4 head Pinheiro planer, 30" double surface Cantek planer, Lucas dedicated slabber, Slabmizer, and enough rolling stock and chainsaws to keep it all running.
www.thecustomsawyer.com

Haytrader

Here in southwest Kansas, things are about like they have been for a long time. And I expect that will continue. Agriculture being the core business, most concern is not enough rain, too much rain, or other weather related things. Wheat prices are at an all time high but nobody has any to sell due to a poor harvest. Corn prices are high mostly because of all the ethanol plants being built.

With my hay business I get to see what is going on away from home. We cover an area basically from Denver to Amarillo to Oklahoma City to mid Mosouri and southern Nebraska. When I hear the economy is bad, I wonder where. I don't see it at all. I hear  housing is in a slump. Where?  Definately not in the area mentioned above. I have three girls and a boy. All the girls built new homes in the last year. One in Tulsa, one in Wichita, and one in N.J.. My son works for me and lives in a nice remodeled house I bought for $15,000. We just finished fixin up a small two story house I bought for $5000. Housing is cheap in the country. I bought a square block across from our home for the taxes a month ago. $568.00

As for jobs, there are plenty. From $6.50 at the C store to $9 to $12 at the rest home or a couple small manufacturing places. Trying to find a truck driver is almost impossible. The oilfield industry keeps the papers fulll of help wanted ads. Diesel is high but I-40, 35, and 70 are full of trucks. Meat packing plants, big dairys (that moved here from Ca. and Az.) and feedlots are always looking for workers.

I read newpapers online from some of the cities in the area I mentioned earlier. Not everyday but often there are articles talking about teacher shortages, nurse shortages, and the need for management personel.

Cedarman has mentioned lately about selling some quipment to a startup company that will be buying logs. There are plenty of cedar to be cut so the logging industry will be born just across the line in Ok.

There is a lady here in my hometown the makes small wooden religous figurenes (Worship woodworks) and employs six or seven full time.

LIFE IS GOOD IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE

Haytrader

Faron

Dubois County just east of me (Flip's neighborhood) has the lowest unemployment rate in Indiana.  OUr area has seen major shifts over the years.  Jasper has always been big in furniture making.  That is still true, but many old businesses shut down the last few years, and the ones that remain hire fewer people, and are more mechanized. I believe a round of layoffs was recently announced by one of the larger factories.  Jasper Engines rebuilds engines and transmissions, and has a large workforce.  I don't know how their wages compare, but far as I know they have never had a layoff in their long history.  Many local support businesses have shifted to a regional or national focus rather than strictly local.
  The union coal miners around here under produced and over paid themselves for many years.  Many of them used to brag about how many hours sleep they expected to get in on a shift.  They were then surprised and outraged when the union mines closed.   ::)  The non union mines that are left here seem to be doing well.  They do seem to have trouble getting employees who want to show up for work, according to some friends of mine who work there.  It is hard work and the mines expect a lot from their employees. 
Toyota builds trucks southwest of here, and those jobs are highly sought after.  Pay is high, but working the line is difficult, and several workers are finding their body doesn't stand up to the pace very well.
Although it may not be exactly the job or the pay one would like, so far around here the only ones conpletely unemployed are those who either don't want to work, or can't pass a drug test. >:( Believe me, we have plenty of those. 
A new bio fuel ethanol and power plant is supposed to be built here, which will employ around a hundred people, plus construction, if the local idiots don't manage to stop it >:(
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner.  Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote. - Ben Franklin

Larry

Furby, as you know I moved from north Missouri last year.  I would have been hard pressed to find a minimum pay job there and I have an excellent work record.

But what a change 300 miles can make.  Here in northwest Arkansas things are booming.  We don't have a large population base but I have never seen new construction going this fast.  New housing starts are the only thing I can see that has slowed down.  Of course the engine for our economy is Walmart, Tyson, JB Hunt, UofA, along with a few others.  Walmart is still a home town company and commands a local corporate presence from there business partners.

A little to the south is the Fayetteville Shale play.  A rapidly growing natural gas exploration area.  Don't know much about it other than the glowing reports I have seen in the press about more fuel for the economy.  It appears production is going to require a big work force to support it.

Bottom line is if a person hasn't found a job in this area he probably hasn't gotten off the couch.

Along with the growing economy the quality of life is great in this area.  We almost always get ranked in the top 20 places in the nation to make a home.  Think the biggest reason is affordable housing.
Larry, making useful and beautiful things out of the most environmental friendly material on the planet.

We need to insure our customers understand the importance of our craft.

thecfarm

I'm in my own little world here and don't really know what is going on.That maybe a good thing.My job is we supply mostly interior trunk parts to cars.We are booming.People buy cars when they can't buy anything else.Some homes are going up here and there.Shopping malls are going up at a good rate.Two big ones are going up a little more than ½ hour from me in differant cities and the stores are moving into them as we speak.
Model 6020-20hp Manual Thomas bandsaw,TC40A 4wd 40 hp New Holland tractor, 450 Norse Winch, Heatmor 400 OWB,YCC 1978-79

flip

You can open the local paper here and if you are a nurse or truck driver you have the choice of working at about 10 different places.  Our unemployment is typically low so it is hard for somone to find a good paying $10-15/hr job easily.  You can usually find the odds and ends jobs but it is typically in some sort of service industry that starts at or near minimum wage.  I don't know what things are going to do but if our car sales guys don't get their butts in gear >:(   >:( >:(.  The service end of our business is going well and we are bussier than normal for this time of year.
Timberking B-20, Hydraulics make me board quick

Norm

Furby you can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a job. ;D

The industry that we're in is booming, healthcare is strong and has been for the 30 years I've been working in it. You do need to have an extended education but the money difference is well worth it. A friend of mine's son is an RN. He can almost name the money he makes by traveling to areas of shortages. He's been working in AZ in the winter and then moves up north for the hotter months. According to him he's making very good money.

The farm economy is strong in our area as well. For that you need to be a producer as the hired help is still low paying. Input prices have gone up but export markets are driving crop prices more than ethanol. Land prices are going up strong still. Our year on year increase was 20%.

Roxie

Here in Souteastern Pennsylvania jobs and the economy have stablized.  We were in a new housing building boom over the past eight years, but now those houses are getting harder and harder to sell.  The price was outrageously high on new homes, and I believe it's just settled into a more reasonable price range.  We were also losing alot of farms during those years, and that has stopped.  The price of milk has helped the dairy industry. 

Like flip, if you are a trucker or nurse, you can take your pick of hundreds of jobs in this area.  But, there are manufacturing jobs as well as clerical positions available.  In the trades category, plumbers, electricians, welders, etc., are making money.  On the lower side of the payscale, almost every convenience store has a sign posted for help wanted. 

The county that I live in is one of the wealthiest in the state, and I've noticed that the gap between the 'haves' and the 'have nots' is getting bigger and bigger.  Based on the foreclosure listings, even upper middle class people are struggling to pay their mortgages.  That problem could very well be because they just bought too much house and all the trimmings to go with it.  But, in some cases I've watched, these folks have mortages that are higher than the current value of their home.  The business that I work in (landscape design/build) has a client base that is at the very top of the earnings ladder, and those people are above the impact of oil prices and such.  I leave for work, and deal with clients that spend more for landscaping than my home is worth, and then I come home and tromp through the manure.  I'm happiest in the manure.   :)
Say when

bull

There are jobs everywhere, with applicable pay rates....... The average family is living outside of their means and refuse to take a lower paying job.... Many people will not take the ten dollar an hour job Because they feel they are better than that and would for go a pay check before they would stoop to a lower paying job...  The educators are teaching the kids today that they are better than everyone else and that when they graduate they will be earning $50,000 a year or better right out the door in a start up job"BS">>> even the teachert have forgotten that they had to start at the bottom and work their way up.... The parents won't allow their children to work minimum wage jobs because there kids are better than that... And the topper everyone has to go directly to college
from high school..... To many people haven't learned it take work to get anywhere and looking for a hand out or a freebee, will keep you in the same rut....... Also our schools have cut back Voc/ tech and are only teaching kids to go to college.....
There is very little value put on being the working man!!!!!

guess where I'm from,

ely

the situation is about the same here in se okla. atoka county, the oil and gas folks are here to stay it loks like. people that own land and minerals are leasing for more money than they have in the property. it is crazy right now. jobs are everywhere if you like driving trucks or working on a rig someplace. health care is always a great job for those who have the schooling. i would venture a guess that the people i just mentioned are 35% of the pie , probably another 35% are the ones others mentioned with state jobs and the like who are on a structered pay scedule. imo the ones who are not doing well are the people who are close to minimum wage and rent their homes. the fuel prices are eating them alive.

the gap that is between the haves and have nots that was mentioned, is fixing to start swallowing up all the people that do not have a concept of conserving money. i call them the "keeping up with the jones'"people. they all are living above their means, using credit cards to make up the difference. it is a sad state of affairs in reality. i can go to near about any town and buy a real decent vehichle in the 3k4k range. i am talking about suburbans and tahoes and pickups. mid to late 90's. it will get worse as time goes on.

just yesterday i heard about a man that went to the bank to borrow money on a land deal.they told him that if he had 35% of the money they would loan him the rest. that is not how it was done in the past. i would think the owners that are selling the land could finance it them selves for 25% down, unless they are some of those in financial distress too.

times are ok right now here,but i do tend to aggree with logwalkers post overall.

ely

bull, you type faster than me ;D
i see the same thing here, if my kids will listen to what i have to say about money and learn from me they will be very rich men in the world, maybe not monetarily. but rich none the less. i do not care what my children choose to do for a career, but i do strive to teach them to do everything for themselves.

woodhick

I llive in the Kanawha Valley area of West Virginia.  We used to be considered the chemical vallley of the world.  Lots of chemical plants, Dupont,FMC, DOW(union carbide), Bayer, and others.   In the last 10 years this area has lost probably close to 6,000 jobs, most of which are $50,000 plus.  The economy in the area still keeps rooling along.  In the county I live in there are subdivisions going up right and left, most of which the homes are selling in the $200,000 range.  We have lost almost all of the manufacturing jobs so I don't know where the money is coming from.  Most appears to be Doctors or health care or sales.  I agree wholeheartedly with other posters that people are living way above there means.  I see it every day here in the schools where my kids go and even in my own family.  I do beleive that we are going to hit a big recession or depression if things keep going.  We are starting to see it with the major credit companies wanting help from our goverment now because they they made bad loans.  All of the car companies are screaming and look at how many jobs they have cut and retirement benifits they have cut from their retirees.  I also agree with others that we are raising a generation of youth that won't work for a decent wage but want to make $20+ hour and set on their butts while doing it.  I personally don't see how we can keep going at this rate without some fall somewhere. 
Woodmizer LT40 Super 42hp Kubota, and more heavy iron woodworking equipment than I have room for.

Frickman

Roxie lives in one of the wealthiest counties in our state, and I live in the poorest. At least that's what the numbers say. There are jobs everywhere, if you want to work. The same jobs you other folks have mentioned, health care, trucking, various service industries, you name it, even manufacturing. The only people I can find to work are older folks. Semi-retired types who took a pension somewhere but still like to get out and do something.
If you're not broke down once in a while, you're not working hard enough

I'm not a hillbilly. I'm an "Appalachian American"

Retired  Conventional hand-felling logging operation with cable skidder and forwarder, Frick 01 handset sawmill

Pretend farmer when I have the time

SPIKER

Here in Ohio
(northern center of state) there seems to be very little going GOOD.  read local papers there are 3~5 pages of foreclosures and 1/4 page of help wanted.   I am now unemployed as of friday the 14th.   I worked for the company 3 years in top wage job as an industrial electrician.    The company has been in business for 78+ yrs and has just about closed 2/3s of it;s operation only keeping enough going to keep business name here in states.  it is construction based and as most areas are experiencing a major construction down turn.  builders in this area are setting on multiple empty SPEC homes. loosing every thing.  If you want to buy used construction equipment come to northern ohio as very soon theres gonna be a ton of it for sale...  Ag around here is either Giant Farms or none, as all the smaller farms sold out to new developments and are now condos.  filled by doctors & nurses I guess and or truck drivers...   lots of those positions in papers. in fact I would say 90% of the help wanted ads are doctor/nurse/trucking with a few general mixed in.   Grain is being held high by the low dollar (cheap for over seas to buy our grain) and what was expected to be a high demand for ethanol but the overseas dollar is driving the ethanol plants out of business as they can't buy grains at a good enough price.  in fact if you check it out there are many plants that were/are in construction/design that are stopped simply due to poor economics of the end product (gas).   

What I've seen so far is that if you have good skill, willing to work for ave pay you can get a job.   If you are counting on construction in this area you are going broke (my brother is in drywall and hasn't worked full time in 2 years almost now, just a one or two jobs going broke in between.)   some places are going still but only hanging ON not making any profit, and with the weak dollar that means going backwards.   Lots of banks are going to start going under if you have over 100K in any one bank better diversify never know when it all can be going.  feds only insure up to 100K so if you have a good IRA or Pension in same bank as checking ect better count you're ducks...

mark
I'm looking for help all the shrinks have given up on me :o

bull

I think its about time for a depression... We are in the midst of the 100 year cycle... only the strong survive.... bring back family,church and reliance on the local community..... bring it all home....USA..
Seems people have forgotten the american dream and gotten fat an lazy....

Mr Mom

Now for the Northeast Ohio report(Ashtabula)........It sucks.Not many jobs But truck driving and nurses. Ag dont know havent talked to any farmers in a while.
Things will get worst before they get better. Lots of houses for sale around here.
I haved talked to some people and they Dont have high hopes for this county.
But we will have the longest covered bridge in the U.S when they get it built at 8.8 million dollars.

Thanks Alot Mr Mom

scgargoyle

Here in West Central FL, manufacturing is way off. There are very few jobs in the 'Trades' section of the paper. Construction is even worse, with a huge back-log of unsold houses on the market. Health care is always strong here, due to the elderly population. There are plenty of low-paying jobs.... if you speak Spanish. I am a tool maker working for a plastic molding company, and we are in the fight of our lives from foreign competition. I would leave the trade in a minute, but I'm a little old (54) to learn a new trade. The problem is, you start at the bottom, both pay-wise, and getting stuck with all the grunt work. I ain't got near as much grunt as I used to! Once this country loses it's manufacturing capability (and it will) China will be free to take over (and they want to). We're probably watching the decline of the American Empire- soon it will be someone else's turn. Read your history, then get ready to live it.
I hope my ship comes in before the dock rots!

ely

sad but true, we are losing the age rapidly of the folks that fought the germans when they were a great power. soon there will be no one who remembers the past and the words in the history books will be words without any meaning.

tcsmpsi

This is not a very good area to give any real indicator of jobs/economy.  There seem to be a few jobs available, but most pay notably below poverty level. 

I see the actual 'available jobs' in different areas as perhaps a bit less enthusiastic than it may appear. 

Ultimately, the building of businesses is a speculative  endeavor, which ultimately depends on consumer participation.  Consumer participation is more and more dependent on credit, which is more and more a volatile industry.

Though an "employment rate" may look good, what is the employment pay scale as compared to the notably increasing cost of living, and specifically to the area in question?

What I use as a 'scale', are those folks at the counters who tell me of increasing numbers of declined credit cards and checks, smaller fuel purchases and more of those made with coins. 

For the "average citizen" who is responsible for the brunt of the tax burden, and depended upon to be the standing consumer, there are a lot of factors which are accumulating like clouds for a thunderstorm.

So, what is an economy based upon? 

Someone made mention of illegals being rather abundant.  I did a little research on my on some years ago, and with a little 'rithmatic came up with a pretty astronomical figure for how much money is sent to these folks' home country every week.  Most of this not being taxed the full extent as the average American worker.   So, with that much money, untaxed, leaving the USA every week....how can the economy possibly be "good"?

\\\"In the end, it is a moral question as to whether man applies what he has learned or not.\\\" - C. Jung

Ron Wenrich

I'm in South central PA.  We have a very stable employer in state government, and throw in a few military bases.  We also have a very large teaching hospital.  That means that a good deal of the population isn't going to be going into a recession any time soon (unless the tax money dries up).

But, we do have some problems with manufacturing.  Hershey chocolate has shipped a ton of jobs to Mexico, including 1,000 in Hershey.  Seems they want to expand Hershey park at the expense of manufacturing jobs.

Next to my house is a firm that puts bodies on the back of delivery trucks.  I use them as a guage of how bad the economy is doing.  If their business is down, then there aren't as many deliveries.  Their business is down.  No fall/winter increase in business this year, they didn't hire any temps, they had a layoff, and now an extended vacation over the holidays.  First time ever.  They have also eliminated all overtime. 

My wife works in the insurance industry.  Their company is starting to outsource jobs to India.  She's not overly concerned about her job, but the Indians are doing jobs similar to hers at half the rate, and she's underpaid by industry standards.  Beginning of a trend?  Also, there are more people who are working remote.  Less need for offices?

What I heard last night is that we are having sector recessions.  Housing and auto manufacturing are down.  However, medical, transportation, energy and a few others have no problems.  Seems to be the same everywhere.

The wild card right now is the credit industry.  Its causing some major headaches in Europe, who is probably our best trading partner.  They have been talking about a slowdown over there.  When the credit dries up or people actually start to pay down their credit, consumption will probably slow down.  There are a lot of families that are struggling on 2 incomes.  What happens if one of them lose their job?
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

logwalker

Quote from: tcsmpsi on December 27, 2007, 05:15:43 PM

Someone made mention of illegals being rather abundant.  I did a little research on my on some years ago, and with a little 'rithmatic came up with a pretty astronomical figure for how much money is sent to these folks' home country every week.  Most of this not being taxed the full extent as the average American worker.   So, with that much money, untaxed, leaving the USA every week....how can the economy possibly be "good"?



I don't think that amount would compare to the 40/50 Billion trade deficit every month, mainly to China. And look at the c--p we are importing. Most of it will be useless in a year or two. Like Bull said, we need to bring it home...NOW.
Let's all be careful out there tomorrow. Lt40hd, 22' Kenworth Flatbed rollback dump, MM45B Mitsubishi trackhoe, Clark5000lb Forklift, Kubota L2850 tractor

tcsmpsi

It has been probably 6 or 7 yrs ago, but one Fiesta market in the Houston area that I was aware of, actually kept up with the money orders sold that had high probability of being sent to a home country, and they had over a million a month going out.  That's just one market.  And, that's straight US dollars directly leaving the country, that could easily add to billions a month nationwide.

Just talking to a few of the places which sell money orders in this small town, even more aware of the regular money order purchases leaving the country add up to tens of thousands a week, from a small town (pop. 5,680 on the city limit signs).

All I know is simple calculations.  But, seems a pretty significant drain to me.
\\\"In the end, it is a moral question as to whether man applies what he has learned or not.\\\" - C. Jung

Polly

  :(   north ky and north east ky all factories that employed the lower medium encome people have moved out the state it appears to me is trying to make money with the county courts the biggest business in each county is the judical system  i know you have to have law and order but when you write tickets to drag people to court not to punish them but just to take their money to support the court house people to me it seams rediculas  sorry about my sour attidud :( :(

bull

Quit whinning about immigrants taking the jobs... Jamacians, Brazilians, Ecquadorians, can work circles around the average american today and if they need more money they work more jobs!!
If we made the dam teenager work those jobs and get off their fat butts we could solve many problems.... The unions aren't helping the employee any more, they're filling managements pockets. The lunk headed union guy who goes on strike for weeks and get no pay although he has paid dues for 20 years "well he's real schmart" Both my brothers are union men !!
Get rid of cost of living raises and go to merrit only incentives, do a good job your pay increases.
If you suck at what you do " good buy " no loafers allowed !!!! My youngest brother is a foreman and all I hear is him squawking about not being able to get rid of the NON Performing slouches on the job they are protected by the union but the guy who produces twice as much work isn't recognized....

Someone mentioned " If we lose manufacturing we're all done" !! Question for ya, What's left??
We here on the Forum are burried deep in minority and are laughed at by the average american today for our thoughts !!!  Let us stand up and be heard, we are at war and this could be our contribution in saving this Country........ LETS PUT THE BOOT IN A FEW REARENDS !!!! 
The fight on our own soil started before we sent troops over seas!!
We should clean our own house before we try cleaning someone elses!!!!
Lets start with the Whitehouse!!!

Wow I'm on a rant........ Next

DanG

What is a "poverty line" anyway?  It used to be where you stood to get a bowl of soup, didn't it?  Somehow, folks have become convinced that if you have less than 4 bedrooms and 3 baths,  a TV that measures less than 52", or less than 3 SUVs in the driveway, you're living in poverty.  I grew up in a small 3br/1bath house with 7 people living in it.  We had one car, 1 radio and sometimes a 17" b&w TV.  We weren't considered to be living in poverty because my Daddy had a job, we had food and a roof over our heads.

As a nation, we are living way above our means.  While I'm in favor of people having a nice life, I don't feel that it is necessary for the typical blue collar worker to send his kids to private school or vacation in Hawaii, or have a second home at the beach.  One of the main reasons we are losing ground is that workers in other countries don't have these things and don't expect to.  They are happy to enjoy a more modest lifestyle...more akin to what we had 50 years ago.  Maybe in another 50 years, the shoe will be on the other foot.  There are indications that a swing may already be underway.  Japanese companies are coming to the US because labor is cheaper, and guess what?  50 years ago "Made in Japan" suffered the exact same derision that "Made in China" is going through right now.  Is China next in line to see their hard-earned wealth outbound to the next Mecca of cheap labor and shoddy goods?
"I don't feel like an old man.  I feel like a young man who has something wrong with him."  Dick Cavett
"Beat not thy sword into a plowshare, rather beat the sword of thine enemy into a plowshare."

flip

I may not see it in my lifetime but the Chinese people will eventually have enough of working for the scrappola wages they are now.  When their political system changes so will the days of sub cheap goods.  If overseas goods prices rise by 25% or more they won't be as attractive  as they are now to our Walmartian buying habbits.

We as a country have thrown ourselves into a hyper polictial correctness that has been the root of a lot of our issues.  Government is part of the issue and you can blame the whitehouse or the outhouse, doesn't matter.  One person does not control the entire sociopoliticoeconomicoenviro mess we've put ourselves into. 

Immigration is an issue, everyone from the pres. down to local governments know it, problem is they can't find a solution that is politically correct and no one's feelings get hurt.  Is it killing our economy, probably not.  There  may be a small impact due to the fact funds leave the country and are not being recirculated but there is no way to really know.

We need to quit selling our own oil to Japan and other countries, we need to start drilling.  Ethanol is not the answer, the byproducts and cost to make are too prohibitive.  Start by making fuel a non issue, quit begging the guys in the mid east for go juice.  If they want to sell it we need to be in the position to tell them what we are willing to give, not what they will sell it for.  Make other countries pay out the nose for the grains and food products we produce, what we don't sell we need to make single malt with ;)

Tarriff the heck out of goods that are going out of the country and comming in, so what if we have to pay a little more, we will live and not be on the life support of Asia and have to deal with substandard junk they send back to us.  Solidify the dollar and quit allowing the banks to loan people the stupid god awlful amounts they think they need to keep up with the family next door. 

Ok. I'm done. >:(

   

Timberking B-20, Hydraulics make me board quick

Ron Wenrich

It has already started, DanG.  China is outsourcing to Vietnam.  Their labor is even cheaper.

I'm not buying into the rant that kids are lazy.  That rant has come down on every generation that has existed.  My dad said about my generation.  Just a bunch of hippies that liked to party (which was true ;D).  And guess what, we turned out to be a bunch of hardworkers.  We're even putting in longer workdays than my dad's generation.  We're also abundantly more productive.  

Kids will become productive when they have to.  If they're sitting at home and sponging off of the parents, why is it the kids' fault?  If they're out of school, then they should be paying rent.  They should also be paying all their bills.  They'll learn pretty quick how to get a job and keep one.  

I always try to think back to what I was doing at that time in my life.  I was employed, not out of necessity, but because I like it.  I also remember how much things cost back then, and what the income level was.  When I went to college, a year's tuition was $450.   Now, its over $12,000 to the same college.  Minimum wage back then was $1.25, now its $6.25.  Minimum wage is up 500%, while school tuition is up over 2600%.  What's wrong with this picture?

And since Flip has posted while I was writing, I'm not that big on tariffs.  We export logs and some of our lumber goes by export.  Tariff that?  Do you really think we can drill our way out of our oil dependency?  We're already the #3 oil producing country in the world (last I checked).  Of course, maybe I'm just being politically correct.   ;D
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

thedeeredude

Quote from: Ron Wenrich on December 28, 2007, 03:20:15 PM
When I went to college, a year's tuition was $450.

:o  dang thats a good deal.  I cant afford penn state nowadays.  If only I could play a sport Id get in for free >:(

scgargoyle

Semi-related- I read today that SC is going to pay Workmen's Comp to illegals injured on the job- and a lot of other states already do! I simply cannot figure out why people who are BREAKING IN to our country are getting full benefits!
I hope my ship comes in before the dock rots!

flip

Because some political think tank thought it would be mean if we excuded them, they might feel left out ::)
Timberking B-20, Hydraulics make me board quick

SwampDonkey

I'm with Dang. I just live a simple, quiet life and what I have is paid for and I didn't acquire it all in one lump sum accept for land and house which was an inheritance. As my grand parents said, the younger folks think they need everything all at once while their generation accumulated things as they were able to pay cash for it. Now there have been a few things I have not paid in cash, but they were paid for eventually before taking on unnecessary debt. I don't travel much and really no desire to unless I can drive there in a day. It costs too much to fly now when you don't live in big cities. I remember it cost $800 to fly from Prince Rupert to Vancouver and the flight across the country was only $600 from there.  ::)

I'd rather be in my shop in the winter months instead of sitting some place away from home paying rent wishing I was back home in my shop.  :D
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

saddletramp

Howdy Furby. I aint arguin with you but the trucking jobs around here are a plenty. Every out fit is hiring. Even the farmers are looking for hands with a cdl. Most farmers now have at least one semi. Must be the location, middle Kansas. Local paper has lots of jobs for truckers, nurses, used car salesmen, teachers and the rest of fast food jobs that go with a college town. If you want to be a REAL chicken hauler give me a call. Were hirin! Yes real live chickens! Mechanics are also in big demand. Just my opinion it looks like a kid from a trade school will have a better chance at a good job vrs a college grad. Sorry things are so rotten in your neck of the woods.
Horses dont git broke.Cowboys do.

Cedarman

Had a lady call me from Los Angelos yesterday looking for cedar to export to Shanghai.  The wood will be made into shoe trees.  We had about a 20 minute chat that I found very interesting.  I asked if the shoe trees and coat hangers were coming back to the US.  She said no.  The people in the US would not pay the price to get such nice coat hangers and shoe trees.  The wood was going to Italy where the folks there have expensive clothes and shoes and want to keep them looking as nice as possible.  She told me it would be a waste of money to spend $300.00 on a coat for her daughter because her daughter would wear it one season, it would be out of style and then given to Goodwill. So she buys a $30.00 coat at Walmart.  She said Americans want cheap stuff and use it and throw it away.

From talking with this lady, she was about my age and was born in Japan.  Her last name is Chen.  I would love to meet this lady and spend a few hours listening to her perspective on things.  She is very conservative, use things until they are used up. Buy only what you need, etc.  Her daughter derides her for wearing out of style clothes etc.



I am in the pink when sawing cedar.

SwampDonkey

My mother drives me nuts sometimes by wanting to always buy me a coat. I tell her 10 times a year at least that the closet is full of coats and I don't need any more. For some reason I always get a new coat whether it's needed or not. I have coats that range in price from $50 to $400. I'm quite content with a sweater and Jeff's Forum Jacket to tell you the truth and will probably wear that to rags and torment my mom to no end.  :D :D ;D

Got any more of those jackets Jeff? ;)
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

SPIKER

just read the paper today, that Mich is #1 and Ohio is #2 on the foreclosure lists.  What that means is that they are also probably #1 and #2 on the lost good jobs list at least the good paying jobs list...   reading the help wanted ads still same, 2~4 pages of foreclosures and 1/3 page of help wanted. 80% were CDL/medical required rest were at temp services.   That is something that is getting to be terrible around here, all the companies are hire temps only and keep them on payroll at lower wage that what they had paid the ave worker and have no tax/unemployment and insurance that ave worker gets...   Then the order/job is done ffire the temps/terminate temp contract until next order is needed...

this means that if the temp worker isn't doing what is wanted the company says send someone else and kick this non-performing guy out.   Which is OK if the guy isn't working but it is a way to get around unions and the union idea that you need 5 guys to do 2 guys work load.   which was the case where I just was let go from, out of 8 guys 3 of us would work & keep busy the other 5 would LOOK busy or disappear claiming to be working/doing something...   I was let go as the new hire, even though I was one of the 3 workers that performed and I had saved the company 5 times my salary in direct natural gas savings alone, this savings will be saved every month as long as they are in business but as long as they tolerate the non-performing people then they are not going to be long for the business world...   I didn't harbor any ill will towards the company for my job loss but I did/do when the others are being paid for doing next to nothing 4 out of 5 days a week.   I think this is where the other guys are kicking our buts on product costs, US companies have to build in extra costs to cover so many things, not just higher natural material costs and higher labor costs but higher costs for EPA Insurance, Taxes and the under performing individuals that can't be gotten rid of due to union/labor laws and people getting tenured situations.   While I have been a union member over 5 yrs in teamsters the general idea to only care about what YOU are doing and letting every one else screw off is why I'm back looking for work and why the big US automakers can't sell over priced under performing cars/trucks.   

anyhow younger generations ARE thinking that everything should be handed to them is pretty  much right on in this area.   I don't think I've met 2 guys under 30 who would actually work for honest pay for honest days labor...

seems there are a LOT of teenage mothers who get knocked up just so gov will give them free housing, cars, meals ect and don't give a dang about the kid the daddy's don't care or have jobs or support the girl/kids...   and then the reform gov aid so that they can only be on there for a few years  UNLESS they have a NEW kid every 3 years or git off welfare for a year!?!?  only means they get to keep having kids with little future and then get to stay on the gov dole that much longer!?!? 

argh now I'm all agitated
:o

Mark m
I'm looking for help all the shrinks have given up on me :o

Cedarman

There are young kids that won't work and I have had some go through the mill.  They don't last long.  When I do get a good one, I keep them as long as possible.  They are working the summer or a few days here and there as their schooling permits. 

Now, I am going to brag on my 20 year old son.  He works for me as he can when home from college. Studying automotive technology.  Every one needs cars and trucks worked on, so he should have job security.  He also is working to become a volunteer fireman by going to classes on Sunday and Tuesday evening where he has to drive 1 1/2 hour each way.

But he can smell opportunity when he gets near it.  A collage professor told him about an antique car auction not too far from us and that they would need loaders to move these vehicles after they were sold. Some had been sitting so long they had 8" trees growing up through them.  He borrowed my loader and hauled it up with his truck and my trailer and with his friend made $1400.00 cash in less than a day and a half. Work was easy and they had them standing in line for their service.  He made them sign waivers etc.

He did the research weeks before the job so he could be very prepared to be efficient and be sure he could make money.

Those youngsters that are willing to think and work will do just fine in this world. Those that won't could be in for tougher times.

I am in the pink when sawing cedar.

Don_Papenburg

Cederman , that is good of your son .  I have  seen very little of that .  But laziness is not just the kids . I was blasting a manufacturing plant about 10 years ago . I needed some material moved so I could get to what I was suposed to blast .  I asked the guy sitting on the Towmotor right next to the stuff .   His reply: Thats not my job ,thats Danny'S job.    >:(
  Years before that I was working in a welding shop I was told that I could not do more than x or the boss would expect everyone to do that from then on . If  I did do more than x I would be kicked out of the union and then lose my job becaus ethey would not work with non union help.

My wifes cousin's little boy  5yo had his mom get him Tshirts last summer .  The two of them tiedied them and he sold them around his neighbor hood .  He made 140 dollars that week.   The funny part is that he hired his older brother to help sell .  His older brother got to goofing around so the young one fired him. :D
Frick saw mill  '58   820 John Deere power. Diamond T trucks

DanG

Quote from: Cedarman on December 30, 2007, 04:55:21 PM





Those youngsters that are willing to think and work will do just fine in this world. Those that won't could be in for tougher times.



Ain't that always been the way of the World?
"I don't feel like an old man.  I feel like a young man who has something wrong with him."  Dick Cavett
"Beat not thy sword into a plowshare, rather beat the sword of thine enemy into a plowshare."

blueduck

Ive been watching different areas like the great basin [oregon, idaho, nevada]  and the mining jobs are the ones that have been draging folks away from other areas for the past few years around this once big logging arena, and farming..... loggers are still paying wages that i worked for 20 years ago, very hard to make more than $15-20 per hour in the woods today unless working under a good helicopter outfit and most of those workers end up "tweekerz" from the  relentless moving around.

Wyoming is drawing many fellas to the coal feilds, rumour control sez the truck drivers willing to work 90-120 hours per week are making huge take home checks even though they are burning out, but living in the truck cab is better than paying rent or trying to find rentable housing there..... ranch jobs are suffering cause you can make more in the coal/oil/gas industries than any rancher is gonna pay for a top hand let alone a mediocre hand.  If a person has any skillz at all they are in demand in Wyoming, in several ways. 

Ive been offered a place to stay if i drag my portable mill up to North Pole Alaska [though i dont know what there is to cut available in the area] or just bring a welding helmet and the placer mines will hire a welder on for day work or week or permanent if they need em right now..... and if a person is a diesel mechanic there is always boat work to do up there too..... but the call of the North never quite has hit me, though i might just go visit if given the chance this spring/summer and make it a working vacation.

Here in North Central Idaho the exodus of jobs from the mills is of course the big news, rail cars sitting on the abandoned line [ok they are paying rent to the new owners if inded the mill did not buy the track as rumour control has it they did], 70 miles to the west in the seaport of Lewiston Idaho they are working 4 shifts in the ammunition factory, pay starts at $11 and goes up to about $15, non-union, work is 4 -10's one week 3 the next, and they are behind on their government contracts..... a little farther south of us the billionaires are still buying out the millionaires and pushing them to here amonst us lowly folks who scrape by, so the high end housing market is still flourishing near Tamarack, Cascade and McCall , shoot i hear even Carole King and Steve Miller have theri houses up for sale as the "new folks" moving in are just not to their liking...lol or the price is right who knows.

locally the housing market has hit a wall last July, bare ground is actually coming down as people who were asking many times the price it ought to be are now stuck paying taxes on un-soldd ground in a subdivision that the county is soaking them on after giving them 3 years to sell the lots..... I personally thinkit funny cause they took great ground for farming or growing timber and made 5 acres plots  for housing on it to "rake in the big dollars" hyped up by the realators [some of who are not able to pay all their bils now either].

Tourism and service economy jobs just wont keep the country afloat, it take manufacture jobs from agriculture to mechanical to keep the "extra" disposable cash flowing through the economy stream, when i farmed i understood that a agriculture dollar turned over  7 times in the local economy where the mill dollar only turned 4 times, then came along the age of non-local loans and credit cards and the dollars turned less locally than before as the products were mail ordered in, or the bills paid to companies far outside of the local reaches.... now those who received those dollars are finding themselves replaced with foreign outsourced workers and the dollars turning less in those areas as well..... all in favor of a corporation making a larger profit at the expense of the local people who once built it.

I may or may not pursue the expansion to another mill this year, I am still considering it, but it just does not look as potentially profitable as it did just a few months ago and i knew the economy was taking a downturn then..... It may be better to just become a "gypsy" worker and bounce around for a year or so, that is the great thing about being a GOAT [generalist of all trades]  just a fella dont want to be known as an OLD GOAT.....

William
Central Idaho
Upon the plains of hesitation bleach the bones of countless millions, who when on the dawn of victory paused to rest, and there resting died.
- John Dretschmer

Polly

 :) :)   ross pero when he was running for president said if the us signed the nafta agreement their would be a giant succking sound as us jobs left the us he was a very smart man it is a shame bill and hillory did not have the common sence to listen to him one has to wonder if they did not want this to happen :( :( :( 8)   

SwampDonkey

They didn't come here. I think per capita, it was an even bigger chew, gulp and spittle.  :-\
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

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