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How is the log inventory in your area?

Started by Bibbyman, October 20, 2007, 08:30:04 AM

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Bibbyman

Mary and I took a drive up in Amish country in north central Missouri today.  They are heavy into pallet part production and have quite a few family run sawmill operations.  Their log inventory looks down from what it was a month or so ago.  It may be due to recent rains in that area last week.  Looks like they have a mix of old and new logs. 

We stopped and visited with one mill owner we know.  He also builds storage buildings.  He shut down his mill during the summer because most of his labor was busy farming.  But he had a few fresh logs on his lot and was going to get back to sawing this winter when help was available.

We've not received any more logs inthe past two weeks.  We've sawn a lot so we're starting to make a dent in our inventory.
Wood-Mizer LT40HDE25 Super 25hp 3ph with Command Control and Accuset.
Sawing since '94

TexasTimbers

I'm wondering if I am on the same page with everyone.

When I read some of these posts I think a big pile of logs means the economy is good.

When I read some of these posts I think a small pile of logs means the economy is good.

Since in my book it's always good, which is it . . big or small ???
The oil is all in Texas, but the dipsticks are in D.C.

semologger

Quote from: Bibbyman on October 20, 2007, 08:30:04 AM
We've had a dry summer but maybe recent rains may slow up the loggers for a bit.  Then it'll be deer season. 

you are not lying about slowing us up. 2 weeks ago i was snaping trees in half the ground was so hard and dry. this week i am leaving ruts and not working cause it is to wet. i am cutting on private job so deer season is out for sure. what part of mo you from bibby i forget. ron you know the manager of orchelns there. my wife is a district manager of orchelns and that is one of her stores.

Ron Wenrich

Log inventories can be a good indication of the health of the industry.  A lot depends on time of year, the size of the piles, and the species. 

Log lots that are full means either its really been a good logging period, or that things have slowed down that not as many logs are being used.  That means that the mills will be reducing their need for logs.  Bad for the logger and land owners.

Some guys have problems getting logs during good times.  Traditionally, its the guys that are producing a lower priced product, so they use a lower quality log.  During good times, loggers will be cutting better quality of timber and won't sell anything to those mills.  If they do, it is usually just to keep their foot in the door.  When markets go down, loggers will switch over to lower quality jobs, just to keep the cash moving and to save higher quality logs for better market conditions.

When all the markets are satisfied, prices drop or gates close.  Loggers have to walk a fine line not to over supply any one market, because it can close pretty quickly.  Then, there's no work at all.

Smart landowners and foresters would wait until market conditions are better to sell stumpage.  Selling in a falling or bad market will result in a much lower sale price.  There will be fewer bids and less money to put on a sale.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Bibbyman

Quote from: TexasTimbers on October 25, 2007, 11:18:03 PM
I'm wondering if I am on the same page with everyone.

When I read some of these posts I think a big pile of logs means the economy is good.

When I read some of these posts I think a small pile of logs means the economy is good.

Since in my book it's always good, which is it . . big or small ???

Yea,  I'm not sure how to interpret it either. 

The last post I made was about what I seen on the Amish mills near us.  They saw almost exclusively pallet stock. Thus, they are probably less effected by the housing market.

Again,  it looked like a mixed bag.  Overall their log inventories were down noticeably from the month before – therefore,  they must be maintaining a high level of production.  But they had a mix of old logs and new logs.  Kind of tells me they're not getting in logs as fast as they can saw them.

These Amish pallet mills are pretty much the dumping grounds (as I think we are sometimes) for the loggers.  They buy by the truck load and don't scale or weigh.  Usually (I take it) they negotiate the first load or two and then kind of set the price with the logger for a load of logs.  From then on, that's what he gets until they re-negotiate.

With their lots being light,  it also makes me guess that the loggers are not cutting as much.  Most won't go after the bottom end stuff.  It's mostly the pallet and blocking logs out of the tops of grade or stave logs that they and we get.  So if they don't have a market for higher grade logs, then they're not producing pallet and blocking logs.

The logger with the grapple truck delivered to us some really nice butt cut grade white oak logs on his last load. We bought them at our sawlog prices.  The problem was that by the time we got them they were old and already stained and cracking.  They all had one flaw someplace – a large knot on one face,  a little shake in the heart area, etc.  I would have thought that a grade log buyer would have bought them.  They must be getting pickier. They made some nice lumber and beam out of the middle.
Wood-Mizer LT40HDE25 Super 25hp 3ph with Command Control and Accuset.
Sawing since '94

StorminN

So how are your local big mills /log lots looking?

I drove by our big plywood mill (KPly) the other day, and it looks like a ghost town... it has been shut down since November or so, and now they are saying it's shut down for good, unless they can get new financing. Not good for our local economy, that's almost 200 jobs right there. That's just one of a few mills that are currently closed...

Here's some excerpts from the Peninsula Daily News, our local daily paper:
Another week of idle mills in Clallam County
Longtime KPly employees wonder about next step
Have a Plan A, B and C, KPly workers told

What's it like in your area?

-Norm.
Happiness... is a sharp saw.

getoverit

One of my best friends is a trucker here in Florida. He hauls for loggers in north Fl and South Ga.

It is a mixed bag of hauls to the big sawmill in Georgia or the pulp mills around my area right now. He is staying busy hauling veneer grade logs tot he veneer plant also.

His biggest complaint is that he is spending over $600/day on diesel fuel. He is saying that there is talk among the truckers about a shut down because their profit levels are so low it isnt worth hauling anymore.

I have been trying to accumulate top quality lumber for my guitar building and supply enterprises, but the high cost of shipping is making the slightly lower costs of lumber less of a bargain. There is still a shortage of saw mills willing to saw and/or cull top quality lumber for the stringed instruemnt wood supply businesses.

Since it has been mentioned here I will elaborate on one possible market some of you may want to consider:

Because of the C.I.T.E.S. treaties, Honduran Mahogany, a traditional guitar neck wood, is dwindling and running out. Other woods are being used for guitar necks now such as cherry, Ash, Walnut, and Cedar.  Traditionally this is 3"x4" with the grain parallel to the 4" face. All of this is FAS with no defects showing and straight grained. You can expect the prices of this lumber to increase over the next few years as the Mahogany supply continues to dwindle.

For the elctric guitar markets you can expect Maple to rise in price as more builders are beginning to use this wood more and more to replace other CITES protected woods.
I'm a lumberjack and I'm ok, I work all night and sleep all day

big_sid

I was in Morehead, ky about 25 miles west of me, where there is a big mill ever 1/2 mile (hardwood mills), their yards were bare, one of the biggest buyers of logs, that had mounds of logs just a month ago said they had 2 wks. sawing, the weather here has been bad, but I can't remember ever seeing log lots so small. don't know if they are just trying to slow things down to drop their log prices, loggers quit, or no timber to buy,sure would like to know.things sure have been slow for me.
never been so happy to be so broke

StorminN

I drove by the local plywood mill (KPly) at lunch today... this is the one that is closed now and maybe closed for good... the log yard was completely empty... with the exception of a few old boom logs placed so people can't drive into the log yard anymore.

Here's a pic... those uprights in the pic would hold a bundle from a log truck, and normally you couldn't see the water in the background, because of the 30' tall piles of logs in the way...



-N.
Happiness... is a sharp saw.

Ron Wenrich

Our log yard is pretty full.  I was on vacation for a week, so that helped.  I don't know how the other mills are doing right now.  I don't see as many log trucks on the road as in the past.  I heard the large mill in the area has trimmed back their operating times to a few days per week.  That should put more logs on inventory.

From a mill perspective, we're looking at warmer weather in just a few more weeks.  For many of us, spring breakup is behind us.  Mills should be trimming their log inventory and gearing up to smaller summertime inventories to avoid log degrade.

The only problems ahead are in the marketplace.  I know of some pallet mills that aren't buying and have their warehouses full of material.  Bad sign.  I also expect that some of the wholesalers will be cutting back this spring.  Some have already shut down production, and that will be showing up real soon.  So, from an inventory perspective, why would the mill want to carry a large one into an unsettled market?

We have a ways to go in this market. 
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

big_sid

I can see why the big mills don't want a large inventory, I guess Ron Wenrich shed a little light on what I was thinking, "troubled times" just didn't want to admit it, to myself or my wife  :D  I'm  gonna have to regroup, try to find other markets, more niche markets. custom jobs are slow, and that don't pay all the bills, don't mean to be a whin bag, but this is the roughest patch I've seen in a while.
never been so happy to be so broke

Bibbyman

Quote from: big_sid on March 15, 2008, 03:17:45 PM
I can see why the big mills don't want a large inventory, I guess Ron Wenrich shed a little light on what I was thinking, "troubled times" just didn't want to admit it, to myself or my wife  :D  I'm  gonna have to regroup, try to find other markets, more niche markets. custom jobs are slow, and that don't pay all the bills, don't mean to be a whin bag, but this is the roughest patch I've seen in a while.

Ron has not answered so I'll give my thoughts.

There are a lot of reasons you don't want to build up a large inventory. 

For one thing,  you get a lot of money tied up in logs.  Our lot is full and starting to overflow.   That's all money not in the bank. 

For another,  you end up with logs that start to get old.  Some kinds of logs go "bad" real quick.  They start to sap stain or crack, bug infestation, sawing time increases, etc.  That's not only money not in the bank but money not ever going to get back into the bank.

Also, you end up with a lot of room being taken up.   You end up moving and sorting things because you run out of room.  You try to save the oldest logs first but then the new, fresh logs go bad.

The ideal situation would be to have a truck pull in and unload the logs you need right on the skid blocks (or debarker deck) and never have a log set on the ground.  But that's never going to happen.  The best you can hope for is to get what you need when you need it.  And that's a big problem.  So you end up buying what you can get and making what you can out of it. At least that's what we have to do because we can't dictate what the loggers bring in to any great degree.

I'd say it'd be good to have not over a month's supply in the winter time and not over a couple of weeks worth in the summer.
Wood-Mizer LT40HDE25 Super 25hp 3ph with Command Control and Accuset.
Sawing since '94

SAW MILLER

I talked to a logger today who was unloading at a mill close by.This mill has been shut down for at least three months.I told him I would like a load of mixed oak low grade logs 10 inches and up and I would pay 40.00 a ton. He said that sounded good and it will be about a week and He will deliver the load.I am not holding my breath because I have asked several loggers to bring me logs but they never come through.
   Every day I drive by this shut down mill and look at all the logs in their yard that I could be sawing.I heard that they are being bought out.Its too muddy to get in the woods around here to get out the logs.
LT 40 woodmizer..Massey ferg.240 walker gyp and a canthook

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