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Wildfires in California

Started by DeerMeadowFarm, August 07, 2018, 10:26:47 AM

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DeerMeadowFarm

I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this or not...? President Trump tweeted something about the lack of water being a major contributor to the cause of these wildfires in California. The liberals are saying that there's no lack of water to fight these fires but is that what Trump meant? I was always under the impression that these fires are happening due to poor forest management; lack of sustainable logging for example. The American Tree Farm system always talks about managed forests being essential to protect the natural aquifers as well and I wondered if that's what Trump was talking about. Liberals are of course, jumping all over him because they feel it's due to global warming. Who is right?

Texas Ranger

Cannot speak for the President, but, lack of rain is the prime cause, and building in areas prone to fire, and any other factor that humans contribute.
The Ranger, home of Texas Forestry

Ljohnsaw

Most of the media out here is jumping all over his comment about letting too much water down the rivers to the ocean.  CalFire people say they cannot comment on the Prez's comments but water does go down the rivers and eventually ends up in the ocean (duh).  I'm not bashing Trump, but this is another of his not-so-well-though-out-tweets.  I can't figure out what he really meant.

Yes, 4 years of drought weakened the forests and tons of beetle-killed trees.  There has been a scramble to cut them down and harvest what they can but too little, too late in some areas (difficult terrain).  There is lots of water in the reservoirs but plenty of controversy over releases to support the fisheries and the plans to divert even more water down to SoCal with the "tunnels" project. (target of Trump's comments?)

Right now, oppressive heat, changing wind directions and low humidity is making the big fires troublesome.  The Carr (Redding area) fire is now the largest fire ever in California.  That is said to have been ignited by a flat tire on a camper trailer.  The Mendicino Complex fire (Clear Lake area) is the same general area (little further north/west) of the fires 2 or 3 years ago that destroyed thousands of homes.  The Yosemite fire was an act of arson.

We go from high smoke (looks like high clouds) to fog-like smoke from day to day and the fires are 100's of miles from me.  Fire crews from Australia and NZ arrived yesterday.
John Sawicky

Just North-East of Sacramento...

SkyTrak 9038, Ford 545D FEL, Davis Little Monster backhoe, Case 16+4 Trencher, Home Built 42" capacity/36" cut Bandmill up to 54' long - using it all to build a timber frame cabin.

John Mc

The problem is not that they lack the water to fight the fire. The problem is that the forests are too dry, and there is a load of fuel that has built up, just waiting for the right conditions. The conditions now are very "right" for wildfires. It's incredibly dry out there.

I listened to a radio interview with an expert a couple of days ago. His statement was that their problem is not a lack of water in reservoirs and rivers, it's the dry conditions. Further he stated that even if they had a massive sprinkler system watering the forests, moisture is evaporating too fast for that to prevent these things. And he said the conditions have shown a worsening trend in recent years, and that trend is likely to continue.
If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.   - Abraham Maslow

John Mc

This could be an interesting discussion, if it doesn't devolve into a political rant.
If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.   - Abraham Maslow

Southside

Having lived in Oregon and traveled northern California as a result I have seen many places that were traditionally grass covered which transitioned to Juniper. Even the road side signs explain that historical, natural, fires kept the Juniper from establishing. They also detail how Juniper consumes a lot more water than grass, so there is some truth to the notion that human management is responsible for what we are seeing there today. 
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Ljohnsaw

Quote from: John Mc on August 07, 2018, 05:22:33 PMAnd he said the conditions have shown a worsening trend in recent years, and that trend is likely to continue.

Yeah, I'm getting tired of the news stations saying that lots of big fires "is the new norm".  Its the new norm because they don't let nature burn like its supposed to to (Tom) to clean out the debris.  Along one smaller highway, they have cleared the dead trees and made burn "piles" to set off when the rains return.  These piles are bigger than houses!
John Sawicky

Just North-East of Sacramento...

SkyTrak 9038, Ford 545D FEL, Davis Little Monster backhoe, Case 16+4 Trencher, Home Built 42" capacity/36" cut Bandmill up to 54' long - using it all to build a timber frame cabin.

DMcCoy

I live surrounded by douglas fir tree plantations.  The dead branches go right down to the ground.  Ladder fuels they are called, where a ground fire can become a crown fire.  I understand the economics but this is a disaster waiting to happen and I don't see any effort by the major and mid sized timberland holders to act proactively.  There have been cost share programs to get land owners to limb their trees to 12'.  I limbed my trees before I was aware of it.

Decades of fire suppression have bought us to this point out here in the west.  There are prescribed burns taking place on the east side of the cascades but these are small in the big picture.   In certain areas they will let naturally caused fires to burn. 
It doesn't take a great imagination to understand that 300 yrs ago fires ran unchecked by man across this land frequently after summer lightening storms.  Drought of course makes a bad situation worse.

There are not really good options other than to let this stuff burn (as much as possible) because it will eventually and more explosively if we don't.
My 2 cents.


DeerMeadowFarm

Quote from: John Mc on August 07, 2018, 05:23:40 PM
This could be an interesting discussion, if it doesn't devolve into a political rant.
It was my intent, and hope that this would NOT be a political rant.

BradMarks

This is not political, just a fact.  Of all the acreage burned in Oregon last year, over 90%, maybe close to 95% was federal land, either USFS or BLM.  Many reasons for this. For one, combined they "own" the largest land base in the state.  And due to the overall lack of forest management, road systems have deteriorated or even worse, been de-commissioned, hindering access. Private timberland in the state on the other hand generally have good roads throughout their land, multiple heli-spots established, designated water holes, on call aircraft and such. Fires, when they happen, are kept much smaller because of this.  I am not a fan of the let it burn policy, and then let it lay fallow.  One of the current fires in Southern Oregon is burning again in the footprint of the Biscuit Fire of 2002. 

Klunker

Fire is a management tool used and is very effective for certain types of ecosystems.
In fact some ecosystems can not survive or exist without it.

Has there been a change in the environment out west over maybe 100-150 years from more of a grassland to forest in many of these areas due to decades of fire suppression?
If this is true would we be better served to thin/remove some forest areas and change them back to grasslands or savanna?


John Mc

While the management of these lands undoubtedly plays a significant role in these fires, it can't be denied that lower rainfall and higher temperatures are a big factor as well
If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.   - Abraham Maslow

Ron Wenrich

I'm not sure about the rainfall being less than historical levels.  Looking at a historical record for Mendicino, the past 2 years were pretty wet for the area.  That leads to more grass and brush in many areas.  When it dries out, as this year has, you have more fuel for fire.  The Ranch fire was in Mendicino county.

The years of 2010-2011 were also wet years.  That followed by a dry year and an elevated fire season.  From the data I've looked at, the years with higher incidents of fire have followed a few years of elevated rainfall.  Seems to be a connection there.  I would expect it to be a normal cycle.

Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

RPF2509

A fire update - currently the Carr fire west of Redding is contained and almost out.  The Mendocino complex is now the largest fire in CA history at 400K+ acres.  My bet is it will get to 500K before going out.  It is of a size now that human intervention will do little.  Adjacent to the Carr fire we now have the Hirz fire started by human cause.  Instead of getting it out when small, it was monitored and is now 14K acres.  It will likely burn the lower McCloud canyon and will likely top out at over 100K acres.  It has huge potential to grow fast as it is in mountainous country with few roads.  The Sacramento and McCloud canyons can be wind funnels which will greatly increase the odds of it jumping containment lines.  Understand that most of the fires here started in the lowlands which endure hot summers and historically burned regularly (like once a decade).  Most of the areas where the fires started are oak woodland mixed with grass and brush or shrub fields.  The brush fields in the Mendocino complex go for miles and miles unbroken.  Only recently have the fires moved upslope into timber lands.  For as many people that live in CA there are huge areas that are empty of people and this is where most of the fire are burning.  Sure 1000 houses were lost in Redding but that was in about a day or so during an extreme weather event (100 degree+ heat).  Once the fire came out of the canyon where it was hottest, it calmed down and was able to be contained. Past decades of fire suppression and lack of prescribed burns in the shoulder seasons (spring -fall)has made the situation worse.  I used to prescribe burn quite a bit on private lands but the air quality permit system leaves few open windows to burn safely.  After I was fined by the CA air resources board for violating Air quality standards (one day of smoke in two towns) I decided prescribed burning was not worth if.  We have had unbroken smoke since July 5th with just a few hours here and there of clear air.  Obviously the system is broken and there will need to be action on many fronts to get a handle on the situation.  For now the Hirz fire has the potential to burn many acres of private timberland, the Carr fire burned 40K acres of private timberland which will be salvaged (estimate is 200 MILLION board feet to get before it rots) and replanted.  Untold acres of federal timberland has burned - little if any will be salvaged and replanted with the burned areas revegetating to brush fields (look at the Biscut fire from over a decade ago in southern Oregon for a good example of this).  The brushfields that have already burned will return to brush and will be primed to burn again in a decade or so.  It has taken decades for CA to get where it is with overstocked federal timberlands and over mature wildland brush fields.  It will take decades to get the landscape back to a fire resilient situation.  Don't get me wrong - CA needs fire, but at the proper time and place. July and August are particularly poor times to be burning.  Most of the burns this year are in northern CA but the central Sierras are primed for huge fires with the drought and dead overstocked forests - their turn is coming.  One wet winter won't solve anything -only a massive shift in the way the forests and fire are managed. Even then we are in for lots of summer smoke for decades to come.

BradMarks

RPF2509:  Thanks for the updates!  Brad

charles mann

i think what ole' mouth meant by lack of water, and it is my interpretation only, is, the lack of rain fall, not lack of water to combat the fire/s. lack of rain has set, along with many other factors, the conditions for the wildfires.
 earlier this year, we were on the 416 and burrows fire just north of durango, co. and that fore was started by the ole' steam loco that makes its daily run from silveton to durango and back. we spent many week there and dropped many a 1000s of gallons of water. rumor is once the morons hit colorado, we will be heading west. 
Temple, Tx
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Magicman

Knothole Sawmill, LLC     '98 Wood-Mizer LT40SuperHydraulic   WM Million BF Club Member   WM Pro Sawyer Network

It's Weird being the Same Age as Old People

Never allow your "need" to make money to exceed your "desire" to provide quality service.....The Magicman

BradMarks

Maybe it was auto correct for monsoons??  Do monsoons happen in Colorado?   Morons happen everywhere :o

John Mc

Quote from: BradMarks on August 22, 2018, 11:23:15 AM
Maybe it was auto correct for monsoons??  Do monsoons happen in Colorado?   Morons happen everywhere :o
Well, I don't know... if enough morons moved into my area, I might consider leaving as well.
If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.   - Abraham Maslow

charles mann

Yes, auto corrected for monsoons. 
Temple, Tx
Fire Fighting and Heavy Lift Helicopter Mech
Helicopter and Fixed Wing Pilot

Magicman

I thought monsoons but I am increasingly seeing more morons as Californians invade/inhabit Colorado.  Cannabis "factories" on main streets.  :o
Knothole Sawmill, LLC     '98 Wood-Mizer LT40SuperHydraulic   WM Million BF Club Member   WM Pro Sawyer Network

It's Weird being the Same Age as Old People

Never allow your "need" to make money to exceed your "desire" to provide quality service.....The Magicman

Ljohnsaw

Well the morons from California don't have to move to Colorado anymore.  Its legal to grow out here now ::)  The lawmakers said this will be a huge tax boom for the state.

It is strictly a cash business since banks can't handle money that is derived from a Federally unlawful operations.  So, the growers/sellers have to fill out forms to say how much they sold and pay the tax on it.  See anything wrong there?
John Sawicky

Just North-East of Sacramento...

SkyTrak 9038, Ford 545D FEL, Davis Little Monster backhoe, Case 16+4 Trencher, Home Built 42" capacity/36" cut Bandmill up to 54' long - using it all to build a timber frame cabin.

Claybraker

Haven't been back to Colorado since I was stationed at Ft Carson in the 80's. Don't know much about morons and their seasonal migration patterns but I do remember an annual weather event called the Chinook Winds that's associated with increased risk of fire.

Luciearl

Planting monoculture forests, as was done in British Columbia, makes them vulnerable to forest fires.  Yes, some of it is due to climate change, but plenty to blame on forestry mismanagement. If you have a single tree species and it's hit by a disease specific to that tree, you are left with a dead forest resulting in a timberbox. A diverse forest will still have shade from surviving trees to leave moisture in the ground. Also downed trees and understory help maintain  moisture. Leaving some snags help remedy by providing a habitat for predators of beetles (woodpeckers).  In BC, I believe they were overwhelmed by the expanse of dead forests that they were had stopped cutting down the trees and hauling away. Just getting them down on the ground may have prevented some of the fires. Similar to poles of dried kindling waiting to be hit by lightning. We need to plant more and more trees. Diverse forests. Trees cool the earth and help make rain through transpiration.

BradMarks

Perhaps another cup of coffee is in order.

timberking

I read my SAF news and see a team of scientist from USFS and U of Montana did a study of precip for the last 40 years and determined less rain means hotter fires.  I am shaking my head.

Ljohnsaw

The fires are getting a little too personal for me.  The 2003 Yuba Gap fire started near the North Fork campground - you can see the fire scar on Google Maps.  At 4:38 this afternoon a new fire started at almost the same location.  That is about 5 miles south of me.  It is at 650 acres at 10 pm with 0% containment.  No homes currently threatened.  On the plus side, there is still very little vegetation in the path from the fire to my (and my many neighbors') properties.  All the campgrounds (including the one adjoining me) for miles around were evacuated.  The fire seems to be going up the steep terrain to the east of the previous fire.
John Sawicky

Just North-East of Sacramento...

SkyTrak 9038, Ford 545D FEL, Davis Little Monster backhoe, Case 16+4 Trencher, Home Built 42" capacity/36" cut Bandmill up to 54' long - using it all to build a timber frame cabin.

Ron Scott

Keep alert of the local fire activity.
~Ron

Ljohnsaw

Quote from: Ron Scott on September 04, 2018, 04:19:35 PM
Keep alert of the local fire activity.
I wasn't clear in the above post.  The fire is near my cabin project, not my year-round home where I'm at now.  Just the same, I'm trying to keep up with it.
John Sawicky

Just North-East of Sacramento...

SkyTrak 9038, Ford 545D FEL, Davis Little Monster backhoe, Case 16+4 Trencher, Home Built 42" capacity/36" cut Bandmill up to 54' long - using it all to build a timber frame cabin.

Ljohnsaw

As of 0900 this morning, the North fire is at 1,274 acres.  A small fire and heading east (away from my cabin project), but only 17% contained.  Yesterday's I-5 fire north of Redding has taken quite the focus and resources to battle that one.  Both exits on I80 by my property are closed since Monday afternoon.

Map from this morning.  My property is up at the top about the "al" in Crystal Lake Road:


 
It started down buy the river (at a campground) around 4,800' and went over the peak at 7,000' yesterday afternoon.  The boundary of the fire is about 1 mile x 2 miles.
John Sawicky

Just North-East of Sacramento...

SkyTrak 9038, Ford 545D FEL, Davis Little Monster backhoe, Case 16+4 Trencher, Home Built 42" capacity/36" cut Bandmill up to 54' long - using it all to build a timber frame cabin.

Magicman

I get anxious for you every time I see this topic come up.  My hope is that your property continues to stay safe.
Knothole Sawmill, LLC     '98 Wood-Mizer LT40SuperHydraulic   WM Million BF Club Member   WM Pro Sawyer Network

It's Weird being the Same Age as Old People

Never allow your "need" to make money to exceed your "desire" to provide quality service.....The Magicman

Al_Smith

I just talked to my sister yesterday who is somewhere  in California .She said it was dry as a bone where she's at .

DDW_OR

this is the map i use
GeoMAC Wildfire Viewer

it has the following thermals
MODIS Fire Detection
VIIRS IBAND Fire Detection
HMS Fire Detection
Previous MODIS
"let the machines do the work"

RPF2509

The Geomac wildfire viewer is an excellent resource.  As of this morning I5 is still closed.  The Hirz and Delta fires have merged and the Delta and Carr fire will likely merge.  The Hirz and Carr fire are basically out.  The smoke here in N CA is overwhelming and everlasting, over 90 days with unhealthy air quality.  We thank our lucky stars when we get a wind shift and get some clear air.  I5 will likely be closed for at least a few more days.  Seems infrastructure has been damaged by heat - guardrails, light posts etc.  Hopefully bridges are ok as that would require an extended closure.  Know of truckers caught in the initial blowup and 300' flame length sheeting across the highway - 4 trucks destroyed more damaged but luckily no fatalities.  The detour around the fire adds a good 60 miles and at least 1 1/2 hours diverting interstate traffic onto a 2 lane state highway with few turnouts and passing lanes.  There have been 2 head ons already.  More accidents to come.  The weather is keeping thing slow.  Despite growing 20k acres in the first day the Delta fire has slowed due to cool weather.  Very challenging terrain as it is steep with few access roads.  Again the fire is fiercest in unmanaged national forest.  No communities at risk yet but if the weather changes, the fire will gain momentum.  Just so everyone knows  water does not put out a fire.  The typical strategy is to cut fireline to bare dirt ahead of the flame front then back fire from that line.  So fire is used to put out fire!  Water is only used to protect structures or mop up hot spots after the fire has passed.  New fires have broken out elsewhere in CA stretching resources.  I have seen fire crews from all over the US. here

DDW_OR

thank you for the update.

please add a location to your profile. state and nearest city is good enough.
"let the machines do the work"

BradMarks

Lets just say he is in the northern California area, call it good.

RPF2509

Norcal fire update - I 5 opened again after a 5 day detour.  6 people killed due to heavy traffic on back roads.  The most recent fire, the Delta is now 80% contained and should be wrapped up soon.  Smoke not so bad the past few days and we had beautiful blue sky yesterday.  The weather has turned to more fall like with cool days in the low 80s and cold nights.   The weather is what really puts the kibosh on fires.  There have been recent Septembers in the 90's and this would have stoked the fires well.  The Hirz, Carr and Delta fires can be considered one fire now at about 300K acres - not quite the record of 420K for the Mendocino fires.  Think about the size of that - A quick google maps measurement yielded a fire footprint of 25 x 35 MILES for the Mendocino.  As usual the fires are a mosaic of hot, medium and cool burns.  The Carr seems to have the greatest area of intense crownfire.  Talked to a forester who had seen it and he said you can see total canopy consumption for miles.  Sierra Pacific is rumored to have lost up to 400 million board feet of prime timber but worse is the thousands of acres of young regeneration units consumed. A high output mill will process 300 million board feet a year so all the nearby SP mills will be plugged.  Green timber sales will have to wait as the slug of burned wood is used up.  Trucks and loggers will be in short supply as SP monopolizes its clout to get them working on their land.  There are a few bright spots in the ash.  The National Forest road system will undergo badly needed repair, the deer herd will have an abundance of new growth to browse, and maybe politicians will get off their tuckus and get some badly needed reform in place.  I won't hold my breath on the last one as its hard to put a complex topic like fire ecology into short news bites for the general population and politicians to understand.

RPF2509

As of today the Delta fire is 98% contained at 60k acres.  We are being treated to another day of beautiful blue skies but have a red flag alert for winds and high temps - supposed to go to 90 for the next few days before a front moves in over the weekend and it cools again.  A bit of a nail biter now as the Tubbs fire started this time last year under similar conditions.  Drove I-5 over the weekend and saw the damage.  Mostly it looks OK from the highway as much of the I-5 corridor was subject to cool backburn which will bode well in the long run.  Still there are many areas alongside the highway that are overstocked and ripe for the next burn.  The segment around the point of origin was a different story - total crown consumption from the highway to the ridgetop.  This is where it went 20k acres in 24 hours.  Four main drainages completely burned out.  There were 3 huge chippers and a mountain of chips along the highway as the hazard trees are being cut, telephone and power linemen are resetting poles and restringing lines.  There will be a huge chance of mudslides this winter if it comes in fast and heavy.  They are saying 50 -50 % chance of an average winter which would be hard on the soil as most of the past few winters have been light.  Sierra Pacific Industries lost 57K acres to the Carr and Delta, another 10K or so was lost by other private owners.  Will hunt the edge of the Delta burn this weekend so will be able to see more.  Hopefully Caltrans will see fit to maintain the ROW a bit better so they can catch these things close to the road.

RPF2509

Yesterday N. Ca received its first wetting rains since early June.  Total acres burned is in the 1.3 million range.  Our local fire, the Delta seemed contained at 98% until we got some temps in the 90's and wind.  A spot fire quickly ballooned into another 3000 acre char.  Some say the FS firefighters had not gotten enough overtime for the year and let it go to fatten their checks.  In any case we are done with the smoke until next summer.  Economic losses from the lack of tourism have been substantial and widely spread.  Several local festivals were canceled, hotels were empty, the local ski park was hoping to go year round with mountain bike trails but nobody wanted to ride in the smoke.  Despite having a small city of firefighters spring up for a few weeks and pump some money into the local economies - it won't make up for the summer that was smoked out.  I talked to several foresters who are working in the burn and they have said that because the Carr fire was early in the year, the bugs got into the trees and there is already substantial degradation to the wood.  With winter coming on they say they will be lucky to recover half the volume and it will take about 5 years to reforest the burned area.  Much of what burned on the National forest had poor access so little to nothing will be recovered.  Right now chippers are lining I5 as hazard trees are removed and utilities restored.  7 miles of a major interstate power line burned and all the hazard trees must be cleared before they can reinstall it.  Green log prices are down - if you can get someone to buy it and log it as the burned wood from private land starts to flood in.

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