How is the log inventory in your area?

[Bibbyman]

Anytime we're out on the road and we see a sawmill operation,  we try to take note of their log inventory.

As we were coming back from Indy we passed a sawmill between Louisiana, MO. and Bowling Green, MO.   It's log yard was filled to the roof.   Looked like they sawed mostly soft hardwood like sycamore and cottonwood.  Many of the logs looked old. The bark had fallen off of some we saw.

Then we've been up in north central Missouri where the Amish have a bunch of mills.  They too looked like they have full log yards.

We've had a dry summer but maybe recent rains may slow up the loggers for a bit.  Then it'll be deer season. 

[DanG]

The log inventory in my area is "full to capacity", and is spilling over into Linda's area. ;D

I really gotta get busy and do some sawing. :-\

[Sunfield Hardwood]

 Theres a large mill in my town that saws a little over 50 thousand feet per day, all summer they have been waiting on the next log truck to pull in, they immediately unload it right into the mill. But they say they have lots of timber bought  that has to wait for crop harvest in order to cut and haul it. I have about 10 thousand feet of walnut and cherry on hand but more bought waiting till after deer season.

[Deadwood]

My Grandfather used to say he could tell what the economy was going to be like in 6 months by two factors...the logs in the log yards, and the milk check from his dairy farm.

Around here the log yards are bare. Not just low, bare right to the ground. The Canadian companies are not buying wood, and with the housing market flat, and in almost a crisis, I don't see it picking up anytime soon. Cedar shingles were so plentiful a few months ago they were dropping the price to an unbelievable low just to keep their stocks down and mills working. The bigger companies said they sold all out of shingles this spring, but the local lumber guy thought they were just witholding their supplies from the general public for awhile just to drive up the price. I thinks he close to being accurate because no shingles are around now. Such a swing in 5 months...kind of makes you wonder?

As for the milk check, they are paying really well right now...24 bucks a hundred weight (1.92 a gallon roughly for the farmer). That is up by at least a third what it was a year ago if not closer to half. That is an indicator that more people are buying ice cream and milk products, more than just the milk staples they need. Generally if the milk price goes up, the economy is starting to gain a little speed.

So what does all this mean, well I think housing market is going to drag the economy down some, and with American's now being completely out of cash (most American's anyway) the interest rates will fall a bit to stave off inflation and the economy will pick up a bit, in 6 months time or so.

Scoff at my Grandfather if you will, but it always amazed me how milk prices and logs in  log yard  could predict the economy with such accuracy.

[ronwood]

I'm not sure how the supply is in my area. Rumors has it that one of the local loggers is quiting the business. On of his workers was killed and he lost his Dad a number of years ago logging.

Ron

[inspectorwoody]

Our yard is low also. We normally are sitting on a couple months of Red and White Oak but at this time we only have a few days worth.

Veneer yard is full and has stayed full for a few weeks now. That time of the year.

Wait and see type of thing I guess.

[Ron Wenrich]

Our log yard is pretty full.  But, that's due to having 10 loads of logs that are ready to be shipped overseas.  Each load has to be separate.

Typically, mills load up during October.  Logs don't spoil from now until April/May, so you can yard them.  Inventories build as an insurance against bad winter logging weather.  Some guys shut down during hunting season. 

I've also seen concentration yards build inventories to help insure a steady flow of material throughout the winter.  However, if their inventories are too high in the spring, they'll shut off buying lumber for a few weeks or months.  That will eventually back up into the woods.

Veneer buyers seem to be harder on the grade than in the past.  But, with our cheap dollar, our logs and lumber become attractive to foreign markets.  But, our cheap dollar is causing problems for European exporters, and they are talking about an economic slowdown.  With a slowdown, the demand will drop for the logs.  Seems like a catch 22.

[Brucer]

Things have gotten a little wierd here. THE major lumber manufacturer has shut down for 2 weeks, and probably won't start up again -- bankrupt. They own 4 sawmills spread across this corner of the province. That means (in theory) there ought to be plenty of logs out there.

Here's the catch. A couple of years ago, the Ministry of Forests made a rule requiring that all logs harvested had to be removed from the forest -- even the junk. It's called the "take or pay" rule. The intent was to eliminate the huge smokey slash fires every fall.

That was OK, because the soon-to-be-defunct lumber company would buy all the junk logs. They'd chip them up and blow the good chips across the road to a local pulp mill. The low quality chips would be shipped across the "line" into Washington state, where a major sawmill runs a co-generation plant.

With that mill shut down, loggers don't have a place to dump their junk logs. A lot of them are thinking of just packing it in. One of our prefered suppliers has closed down for the winter and are making noises about not starting up again.

However ... a new supplier approached us about buying her logs. She wanted us to visit and check out the logs -- that's 4 hours of driving, plus a couple of hours on site. Not exactly something I want to do if the wood is junk. We asked her to send pictures over the net, but she was too busy to take the time for a small user like us. Stalemate. Then I suggested my customer send her a copy of the new spec we just wrote up.

Well, that really changed things. We're offering to pay her more than she was asking, but only for good logs. Now she's talking about changing her logging plans to accomodate us. Best of all, she's a licensed scaler, so she can be sure she's sending us the logs we're willing to pay top dollar for.

We're going to buy a load and see if it measures up. If it does, she can supply all our needs for the forseeable future.

[customsawyer]

The big mill I work at is running full steam ahead and then some. They are getting in so many logs that were oversized that there was no way for me to keep up so the put in the LT300 to off set some of what I couldn't do which was good but even with the 300 running 24 hours a day 5 1/2 days a week we still couldn't keep up so they took the 300 out and are putting in a big band head rig in I think it is a Mcdoungh  but not sure. This is going to be a good thing I think since I only have time to cut there oversized logs about 2 weeks out of each month as I now do alot of special cypress orders for timber frame houses and those are taking up the rest of my time. The thing I didn't know when I started there is that they run about 75-80 semi loads of logs a day and even if I have a good day and get 21 or 24 logs cut there doesen't have to be but one log on every 3rd truck for me and I am backing up real fast, needless to say there is alot more big logs than that coming in.
To get to the question of this thread if you look from the road you would think that the mill has logs enough for a year but I have seen it run through a yard full of logs in a very short time. All I can say is that there is no shortage on the log yard, no shortage of trucks coming in and there is no shortage of trucks and rail cars taking it back out.

[sawguy21]

As Bruce said, it is not pretty here. I was by a larger mill a couple of weeks ago and the yard was virtually empty, lot of what is there is blackened from age. The mills usually run their inventory down this time of year then haul like gangbusters after freeze up but that is unlikely to happen in the near future with lumber markets so soft. The coastal mill workers ended their strike but a lot of them may not have jobs to go back to.

[solodan]

Everybody's log yard around here looks pretty bare compared to the big guys in our area. They produce 1.3 billion board feet a year. That is over 3 million board feet a day.    That is not at just one mill, but they do have 3 mills in my immediate area. The owner is also the largest private land owner in north america. Scroll down to company history HERE and read about the owners. I think it is pretty interesting. ???

[Frickman]

Everyone is cutting and hauling lots of logs. We're doing like Ron says, load up now to get you through the wet winter weather.

[Cedarman]

I've never seen so many cedar logs come in before and the phone keeps ringing.  We are at max logs in the yard.

[Bibbyman]

I've never seen so many cedar logs come in before and the phone keeps ringing.  We are at max logs in the yard.

We even got about 10 cedar logs in last weekend.  First we've been able to buy in a year!

[Cedarman]

Got a call this morning.  A fellow has a semi of cedar.  Tell him it will be 2 to 4 weeks to get his money.  That will be just fine he says.  Be there tomorrow or Thur.
About noon  a regular shows up and says he has 2 big loads ready to come and wanted to know if I would take them.  Tell him the same thing.  Thats good he says.  I see you don't need them, but I'm glad you'll take them.  (He had been by the log yard and wondered where I'll put them.)  Starting to look like a good winter.

[WH_Conley]

OK, Come on, send some down this way. ;D. Aint seen, saw or looked at a cedar for a while.

[TexasTimbers]

As y'all know I am not a actual sawmill operation like most of you big boys on a scale large enough to be counted, but I do notice things.

One thing I have never mentioned because until this thread there has been no need, but whenever I drive through Dekalb (locally pronounced dee-cab) about two hour east of me, Phillips Lumber has proliferated over the last decade especially into a huge operation on both sides of the highway for roughly a mile long. They are strategically located so that they get pine as well with no long hauling like when I want to log it. But they buy anything and everytinhg that makes a sawlog.
They are sawing grade, buying pulp, cuttijng ties, dunnage, chipping, selling large timbers, treated wood, running big steam kilns 24/7/365, and gobbling up timberland every year.

I wouldn't know about the aggressive timberland purchases except that a guy that logs my pine in Winnsboro went to school with the owner. I have no idea how he can run an operation so huge and diverse and still continue to grow grow grow. I can't even keep a third of my logs from rotting before I can finally get to them.

[Ron Wenrich]

That's pretty simple.  His into debt up over his eyes, and they are afraid not to lend him more money.  The large mill in our area had the same problem, at one time.  The banks leaned on him and he said he'll just close the door.  Th bankers blinked, and opened up their checkbook so there wouldn't be a huge default.  The mill survived.

The probable reason there's so much cedar moving is its the only market in town.  If things would be really booming, how much cedar would you have?

[Cedarman]

Ron, exactly.  I can tell when the economy is down.  I get lots of calls from people wanting to sell or bring in pickup loads of cedar.  The phone calls tell me the economy is down some.  When I get cedar from the big loggers I know the hardwood business is down and it is certainly down right now.  All things are cyclic and I know in a few months to a year or so things will turn around and these same guys will not lower themselves to cut cedar.

[TexasTimbers]

You might be right Ron on the debt. He also keeps his fleet of deliver trucks shiny and new never seen any junkers. I don't know about his logging equipment never seen any of it.

But he doesn't do alot of cedar. I called them up once a while back maybe 6 - 8 months just to see what they paid. "90 a ton but we are real picky. We don't grind it so we only accept top quality sawlogs" That is high. At the time I was paying 65 a ton. I wasn't calling to sell any but when I heard that I nearly decided to bust out the chanisaws! :D

[Gary_C]

Conditions are getting rather ugly around here. One large western Wisconsin mill was just shut down by their bank. Supposedly they were $9-12 million in the hole and still digging. Banker sent his men out and terminated all workers. He also went out to all active logging jobs and told the loggers to drop everything right where they were and have their equipment out within 30 minutes. Land owners were not getting paid for logs already hauled.

Another large mill in northern WI has shut down their largest mill. I know they own some DNR contracts that are not being cut.

Also one small mill in Minnesota is fighting with another mill. Seems one mill has told private landowners that his competitor has screwed some landowners with the help of a MN DNR Forester. The DNR Forester is threatening to sue but I don't think the state will allow it.

Yes, things are bad right now.

On the pulp side, the LP plant in Hayward (OSB and building siding) has shut it's doors untill the first of the year. The paper mills are still running well but getting too much wood offered so you can only get quota for about a third of what you ask for and at rock bottom prices.

At the same time those mills are buying up every timber sale they can get. They all expect this will turn around within the contract time (usually five years) and then they will have cheap raw material already purchased.

Hope they are right.

[sawguy21]

Our mills are struggling to get going after the strike because many people found other work, particularly mechanics. Pope and Talbot is on the ropes and offering to sell large parcels of land. Trouble is, it is a tree farm licence and not theirs to sell unless released by the provincial government.  Forestry department claims no application has been seen.
I love the bush and enjoyed being involved in logging but it is a rough road right now.

[sawguy21]

West Fraser just announced they are closing the Terrace mill, the last one in town.  :'( The planer will run another six weeks to clean up existing inventory. That is 80 mill jobs and 400 more in logging plus the local businesses that depend on them. The strike was the final nail in the coffin. Any one heard from Percy?

[Engineer]

There's only one commercial mill in my area that I drive by or to regularly, and they usually have an empty yard and are waiting for the next truck to come in. 

I have more logs in my piles than they do, and I don't have time to saw anything.   :(

I don't see too many log trucks around this time of year, and what ones that are, are heading to Canada.

[Ron Wenrich]

Weyerheuser has shut down a bunch of mills.  I thought I heard they were shutting down 3 more. 

[Bibbyman]

Mary and I took a drive up in Amish country in north central Missouri today.  They are heavy into pallet part production and have quite a few family run sawmill operations.  Their log inventory looks down from what it was a month or so ago.  It may be due to recent rains in that area last week.  Looks like they have a mix of old and new logs. 

We stopped and visited with one mill owner we know.  He also builds storage buildings.  He shut down his mill during the summer because most of his labor was busy farming.  But he had a few fresh logs on his lot and was going to get back to sawing this winter when help was available.

We've not received any more logs inthe past two weeks.  We've sawn a lot so we're starting to make a dent in our inventory.

[TexasTimbers]

I'm wondering if I am on the same page with everyone.

When I read some of these posts I think a big pile of logs means the economy is good.

When I read some of these posts I think a small pile of logs means the economy is good.

Since in my book it's always good, which is it . . big or small ???

[semologger]

We've had a dry summer but maybe recent rains may slow up the loggers for a bit.  Then it'll be deer season. 

you are not lying about slowing us up. 2 weeks ago i was snaping trees in half the ground was so hard and dry. this week i am leaving ruts and not working cause it is to wet. i am cutting on private job so deer season is out for sure. what part of mo you from bibby i forget. ron you know the manager of orchelns there. my wife is a district manager of orchelns and that is one of her stores.

[Ron Wenrich]

Log inventories can be a good indication of the health of the industry.  A lot depends on time of year, the size of the piles, and the species. 

Log lots that are full means either its really been a good logging period, or that things have slowed down that not as many logs are being used.  That means that the mills will be reducing their need for logs.  Bad for the logger and land owners.

Some guys have problems getting logs during good times.  Traditionally, its the guys that are producing a lower priced product, so they use a lower quality log.  During good times, loggers will be cutting better quality of timber and won't sell anything to those mills.  If they do, it is usually just to keep their foot in the door.  When markets go down, loggers will switch over to lower quality jobs, just to keep the cash moving and to save higher quality logs for better market conditions.

When all the markets are satisfied, prices drop or gates close.  Loggers have to walk a fine line not to over supply any one market, because it can close pretty quickly.  Then, there's no work at all.

Smart landowners and foresters would wait until market conditions are better to sell stumpage.  Selling in a falling or bad market will result in a much lower sale price.  There will be fewer bids and less money to put on a sale.

[Bibbyman]

I'm wondering if I am on the same page with everyone.

When I read some of these posts I think a big pile of logs means the economy is good.

When I read some of these posts I think a small pile of logs means the economy is good.

Since in my book it's always good, which is it . . big or small ???

Yea,  I'm not sure how to interpret it either. 

The last post I made was about what I seen on the Amish mills near us.  They saw almost exclusively pallet stock. Thus, they are probably less effected by the housing market.

Again,  it looked like a mixed bag.  Overall their log inventories were down noticeably from the month before – therefore,  they must be maintaining a high level of production.  But they had a mix of old logs and new logs.  Kind of tells me they're not getting in logs as fast as they can saw them.

These Amish pallet mills are pretty much the dumping grounds (as I think we are sometimes) for the loggers.  They buy by the truck load and don't scale or weigh.  Usually (I take it) they negotiate the first load or two and then kind of set the price with the logger for a load of logs.  From then on, that's what he gets until they re-negotiate.

With their lots being light,  it also makes me guess that the loggers are not cutting as much.  Most won't go after the bottom end stuff.  It's mostly the pallet and blocking logs out of the tops of grade or stave logs that they and we get.  So if they don't have a market for higher grade logs, then they're not producing pallet and blocking logs.

The logger with the grapple truck delivered to us some really nice butt cut grade white oak logs on his last load. We bought them at our sawlog prices.  The problem was that by the time we got them they were old and already stained and cracking.  They all had one flaw someplace – a large knot on one face,  a little shake in the heart area, etc.  I would have thought that a grade log buyer would have bought them.  They must be getting pickier. They made some nice lumber and beam out of the middle.

[StorminN]

So how are your local big mills /log lots looking?

I drove by our big plywood mill (KPly) the other day, and it looks like a ghost town... it has been shut down since November or so, and now they are saying it's shut down for good, unless they can get new financing. Not good for our local economy, that's almost 200 jobs right there. That's just one of a few mills that are currently closed...

Here's some excerpts from the Peninsula Daily News, our local daily paper:
Another week of idle mills in Clallam County
Longtime KPly employees wonder about next step
Have a Plan A, B and C, KPly workers told

What's it like in your area?

-Norm.

[getoverit]

One of my best friends is a trucker here in Florida. He hauls for loggers in north Fl and South Ga.

It is a mixed bag of hauls to the big sawmill in Georgia or the pulp mills around my area right now. He is staying busy hauling veneer grade logs tot he veneer plant also.

His biggest complaint is that he is spending over $600/day on diesel fuel. He is saying that there is talk among the truckers about a shut down because their profit levels are so low it isnt worth hauling anymore.

I have been trying to accumulate top quality lumber for my guitar building and supply enterprises, but the high cost of shipping is making the slightly lower costs of lumber less of a bargain. There is still a shortage of saw mills willing to saw and/or cull top quality lumber for the stringed instruemnt wood supply businesses.

Since it has been mentioned here I will elaborate on one possible market some of you may want to consider:

Because of the C.I.T.E.S. treaties, Honduran Mahogany, a traditional guitar neck wood, is dwindling and running out. Other woods are being used for guitar necks now such as cherry, Ash, Walnut, and Cedar.  Traditionally this is 3"x4" with the grain parallel to the 4" face. All of this is FAS with no defects showing and straight grained. You can expect the prices of this lumber to increase over the next few years as the Mahogany supply continues to dwindle.

For the elctric guitar markets you can expect Maple to rise in price as more builders are beginning to use this wood more and more to replace other CITES protected woods.

[big_sid]

I was in Morehead, ky about 25 miles west of me, where there is a big mill ever 1/2 mile (hardwood mills), their yards were bare, one of the biggest buyers of logs, that had mounds of logs just a month ago said they had 2 wks. sawing, the weather here has been bad, but I can't remember ever seeing log lots so small. don't know if they are just trying to slow things down to drop their log prices, loggers quit, or no timber to buy,sure would like to know.things sure have been slow for me.

[StorminN]

I drove by the local plywood mill (KPly) at lunch today... this is the one that is closed now and maybe closed for good... the log yard was completely empty... with the exception of a few old boom logs placed so people can't drive into the log yard anymore.

Here's a pic... those uprights in the pic would hold a bundle from a log truck, and normally you couldn't see the water in the background, because of the 30' tall piles of logs in the way...



-N.

[Ron Wenrich]

Our log yard is pretty full.  I was on vacation for a week, so that helped.  I don't know how the other mills are doing right now.  I don't see as many log trucks on the road as in the past.  I heard the large mill in the area has trimmed back their operating times to a few days per week.  That should put more logs on inventory.

From a mill perspective, we're looking at warmer weather in just a few more weeks.  For many of us, spring breakup is behind us.  Mills should be trimming their log inventory and gearing up to smaller summertime inventories to avoid log degrade.

The only problems ahead are in the marketplace.  I know of some pallet mills that aren't buying and have their warehouses full of material.  Bad sign.  I also expect that some of the wholesalers will be cutting back this spring.  Some have already shut down production, and that will be showing up real soon.  So, from an inventory perspective, why would the mill want to carry a large one into an unsettled market?

We have a ways to go in this market. 

[big_sid]

I can see why the big mills don't want a large inventory, I guess Ron Wenrich shed a little light on what I was thinking, "troubled times" just didn't want to admit it, to myself or my wife  :D  I'm  gonna have to regroup, try to find other markets, more niche markets. custom jobs are slow, and that don't pay all the bills, don't mean to be a whin bag, but this is the roughest patch I've seen in a while.

[Bibbyman]

I can see why the big mills don't want a large inventory, I guess Ron Wenrich shed a little light on what I was thinking, "troubled times" just didn't want to admit it, to myself or my wife  :D  I'm  gonna have to regroup, try to find other markets, more niche markets. custom jobs are slow, and that don't pay all the bills, don't mean to be a whin bag, but this is the roughest patch I've seen in a while.

Ron has not answered so I'll give my thoughts.

There are a lot of reasons you don't want to build up a large inventory. 

For one thing,  you get a lot of money tied up in logs.  Our lot is full and starting to overflow.   That's all money not in the bank. 

For another,  you end up with logs that start to get old.  Some kinds of logs go "bad" real quick.  They start to sap stain or crack, bug infestation, sawing time increases, etc.  That's not only money not in the bank but money not ever going to get back into the bank.

Also, you end up with a lot of room being taken up.   You end up moving and sorting things because you run out of room.  You try to save the oldest logs first but then the new, fresh logs go bad.

The ideal situation would be to have a truck pull in and unload the logs you need right on the skid blocks (or debarker deck) and never have a log set on the ground.  But that's never going to happen.  The best you can hope for is to get what you need when you need it.  And that's a big problem.  So you end up buying what you can get and making what you can out of it. At least that's what we have to do because we can't dictate what the loggers bring in to any great degree.

I'd say it'd be good to have not over a month's supply in the winter time and not over a couple of weeks worth in the summer.

[SAW MILLER]

I talked to a logger today who was unloading at a mill close by.This mill has been shut down for at least three months.I told him I would like a load of mixed oak low grade logs 10 inches and up and I would pay 40.00 a ton. He said that sounded good and it will be about a week and He will deliver the load.I am not holding my breath because I have asked several loggers to bring me logs but they never come through.
   Every day I drive by this shut down mill and look at all the logs in their yard that I could be sawing.I heard that they are being bought out.Its too muddy to get in the woods around here to get out the logs.