Meteorologist

[Captain]

I used to be able to say "Weatherman" when I was a child, but today they are called meteorologists and there is as many Weatherwomen as there are men, so that is no longer Politically Correct.  Just a rant about the job of the meteorologist.
Now I understand that meteorology is not an exact science.  However, I can't remember when a forecast of a storm was agreed upon by so many in the business, and was so wrong in the end.

The forecast for the area south of Boston yesterday was a winter storm warning.  Heaviest percipation in the hours before the afternoon commute, 12 to 15 inches of snow with the storm epicenter in Taunton, Ma on the south chore (next town over from me) possibly getting as much as 18 inches.  Schools were cancelled based on the forecast the previous day, resulting in parents across the region now scrambling to arrange care for their children.  Many decided to stay at home altogether.  Governor Deval Patrick told all non essential State Employees to stay home, and sent the entire State Government home at 12 noon.  He also urged all businesses in the private sector to do the same.  Well, many did and it was evident on the highway yesterday on the way to a consulting job I had in Weymouth.  Many people were staying home with the kids or working from home, whatever the case may be.

It rained yesterday afternoon.  It began to snow at about 6pm last night.  I just opened the door to check if I need to go snow plowing before work (at 5 AM) we got a grand total of 2".

It really bothers me that the meteorologists will shrug it off and plainly be able to describe what happened now that it has, but nobody got it right in the beginning.  Think of the small businesses yesterday that lost money because their workers had to stay home with their children.  The snow plowing contractors hired by the hour by the state and local municipalities that were sitting in their trucks on the side of the road getting paid by the hour to watch it rain.  I can go on and on.  The can not imagine the total cost estimates in business losses and wasted monies.

Now the kids get and extra day of school in June.  Brendan won't like that when the time comes.

Captain

[Ron Wenrich]

But, suppose he was right.  How much would businesses have lost had they had their employees stuck at work?

Back in 2003 we had a storm that stranded a couple of thousand people on I-78.  Truckers should have stayed off the roads, but they kept on trucking to make schedule.  The snow got deep, they got stuck, and blocked roads and plow crews.  Lots of lost time, wasted fuel, and money.

This storm, they shut down the roads and let the truckers sit in truck stops.  But, it started in the AM and they warned us about how bad it was going to get.  Had we gone ahead about our business as if nothing was going to happen, we would have had worse problems.

We always remember the forecasts that are wrong, but rarely remember the ones they get right. 

[Brad_S.]

Captain,
I drove through the great state of Mass. last night. There were platoons of DOT plows driving down I90 with the plows down, sparks flying and there wasn't a flake of snow on the road! Must be management figured they mobilized them, were paying them, so they might as well go out and do something and wear the equipment out in the process so they don't get their budgets cut next year. Your tax dollars at work.

[Chuck White]

Hey Brad, maybe they figured that they were supposed to sharpen the plows before they really needed to use them! :D

[Jeff]

Here is my typically weird way of looking at things.

On the forum, we basically have enough data from Captain's posts over the years that we could look back on to use as a model, if for some reason we wanted to predict what he might post about in the future.   My best guess would be an upcoming post would contain information about swing mills, but almost a good a guess would be that he was making a post to add some of his mechanical insight and expertise to help someone with a problem. He might simply make a short post of encouragement to someone that has or is facing some sort of change or challenge in their life. He might be posting about being on the road and meeting a forum member. Because of some of the newer postings and the things we have come to know, Captain might be posting about something related to fire and rescue. 

With all we know, we could make a pretty good educated guess. Never would I have guessed that a commentary on Meteorology would be the latest topic, but there it is. Who would have known? Probably not even Captain himself until a few moments before he hit the new topic button.  Now that he has made the post, we might expect him to talk about it a little more, but eventually, he won't, but he will more then likely go back to making posts about the things that we know make him our Captain. But then again, maybe he will make a post next time about trimming an elephants toenails.

HUH? How could you ever expect this post to talk about elephants toenails?  Sometimes no matter what information and means you have at hand you can't. Many times in fact, you get the unexpected or vice-versa as in the case of the missing snow storm. 

[Norm]

With the amount of snow we've been having I'm not even sure you could find an elephant especially a white one....hmmm wonder what elephant tastes like. ;D

[woodmills1]

back on topic.....on our last storm many superintendants and others who make a snow closing call got chastized for using early release at the height of a storm that exceeded the predictions.........so now here comes predictions for a huge storm.....most ere on the side of caution and.......dust to an inch..so they will get chastized again

Ifin ya doesn't like the weather up here just wait a few minutes

[stonebroke]

I think that the responsiblity lies more on the people in power you make the decisions. They would rather err on the side of caution, Because they are not paying for it. Also the plow crews in the northeast need the overtime because it has been a very easy year snowwise.

Stonebroke

[Warbird]

Haha.  Well said, Jeff.  ;D  As for snowfall, you guys send that snow back up here where it belongs!

[beenthere]

Several years ago, our weather forecasters predicted 4" of snow. No big deal, but the storm produced about 16".
About a week later, another prediction of 4-6" of snow. No big deal, but the storm produced about 19".
A lot of disgruntled couch quarterbacks.   

The next snow prediction a couple weeks later was a full blown 12-16" snow storm, and for everyone to duck and head for cover. The city of Madison was at a complete standstill with everything cancelled....all for the very light dusting of snow that prevailed.  ;D ;D

On the side, I watched Glen Beck last night when he re-played a weatherman in the DC area explain how the heavy snow and cold was REALLY from global warming. It was hilarious.  Beck was showing how we need to change our regular glass thermometers by looping the top back around to the bottom, to show how the warmer the temps become, the colder we will get.  ;D

[Tom]

I tend to depend on the weather guessers when I already have formed an  opinion.  Sometimes, I use them to help me form an opinion.  But that is to provide for my own well being.  The Bureaucrats are dependent upon the weather guessers for the well-being of the population that depends on them for their decisions.   That's harder.  Now, the Bureaucrats want nothing to do with responsibility.  They hold to the letter of the law and use the opinions of others so that they aren't held responsible..

I understand the necessity to keep the roads clear and make rules for the general population to follow when it comes to institutions that could lay responsibility on the Bureaucrat in charge.  Schools are a good example.  It's better to come up with a "whoops" than a "Oh shucks".  The newspapers would never let the Bureaucrat get away with a mistake in the negative and will still harass them when they make a mistake in the positive.  It's just that a mistake in the positive is soon forgotten and a mistake in the negative eventually ruins the Bureaucrat's life.

I'm often reminded of the comment of a neighbor of mine who visited Montana.   He was looking for a place to retire and he and his wife flew there to see what it was like.  He had nothing but good to say of everything he found.  The people were friendly, the scenery beautiful, the cost of living acceptable, etc.   But one story has always stuck in my mind.

He was talking with a resident about rules and regulations, permits, inspections, fines, allowances and restrictions.  He told this analogy to me.

In Florida, if someone fell off of the side of the road and drowned in a roadside ditch, the people would be up in arms that the government do something to protect them. The Government would put up warning signs, paint stripes in the road, install barriers, threaten with incarceration, put up a guard shack and staff it with a State Policeman.  It would lead to educational programs at the school involving the police department, the fire department and the EMT's.

In Montana, they would say, "He shouldn't have stood so close to the edge of the road."

[isawlogs]

With those plows on the road ... was there any drifts out there that could of called for them being out . I have seen it here where ther would be a drift going across the road at only one place in fifteen miles ... that plow truck normally is parked at the other end, of course , he would not drive down there with the blade on the road unless he had a new cutting edge on it .

  Maybe them guys was new to the job and needed some experience under there belt .  :P 

[Sprucegum]

With all thier new fangled graphs and moving charts and satelite photos the meteorologistd are getting real good at explaining "what just happened" and that's about all we can count on  ;)  :D

[stonebroke]

  Now, the Bureaucrats want nothing to do with responsibility.  They hold to the letter of the law and use the opinions of others so that they aren't held responsible..

So You are saying they are just engaging in   CYA.

Stonebroke

[isawlogs]

  Well I could tell ya what went wrong when I broke my finger last fall too  :  I am getting good at that too .  : Now dem guys with all there satelite imagery should be able to tell us something a little more usefull then .. " ya all got a pile of snow yesterday "

[Tom]

So You are saying they are just engaging in   CYA.

Stonebroke

Pretty much.  I just like using more words than that.  :D

[Slabs]

Holmes County Florida is closing the schools on the prediction of snow.  That's the next county east of here.  We're supposed to have the heaviest accumulation here in Walton and over in Okaloosa(immediately west).

I'll try to have pics tomorrow night.  Hope they aren't too dark.

[stonebroke]

Holmes County Florida is closing the schools on the prediction of snow.  That's the next county east of here.  We're supposed to have the heaviest accumulation here in Walton and over in Okaloosa(immediately west).

I'll try to have pics tomorrow night.  Hope they aren't too dark.

So do you have your snow plows ready?  :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Stonebroke

[DanG]

Believe it or not, I saw on the local news that the City of Bainbridge Ga, 10 miles from the Fla line, has 8 snowplow trucks ready to go! :D :D

[stonebroke]

what do they get them out once a decade?

Stonebroke

[Tom]

They are probably Tractors that aren't being used in this winter weather and have been volunteered for service by the farmers, box blades and all.  I doubt that there is anybody in Bainbridge that knows what a snowplow is.  It's been a long time since there's been a Yankee anywhere close.  ;D

[DanG]

There is one, Tom.  He came down here with a snow shovel tied to his car.  When somebody asked him what it was, he bought a house and moved in. :D :D

Stonebroke, it has actually been 17 years since we had enough snow to stick on the ground.  I imagine those "snowplows" are actually just motor graders and frontend loaders.

[stonebroke]

So you guys are cheating. The last plow truck my town brought was 185.000 $. We only have six of them but not all are that big. They can plow 37 miles of road in one and a half hours, up to two feet, after that it takes a little longer.

Stonebroke

[Ron Wenrich]

I heard on the news today that there was snow in all 50 states.  Hawaii gets snow on one of its high volcanoes, if I recall.

[SwampDonkey]

Yeah, there is snow at the observatory up there, over there, down there.  ;D

[Tom]

I'm thinking about hunting dinosaurs this summer.  Open season, I think.

[beenthere]

I heard that too... and we are sharing the global warming with everyone.  ;D

Sorry that it is making quebecnewf's winter so tough on him getting his wood out.  ;)

[SwampDonkey]

I told Newf not to get his hopes up the way them lows have been spinning around Newfoundland all winter, throwing warm air along the north Atlantic and keeping the snow down in DC. ;D

CBC climatologist said it was going to be below normal temps this winter? Where? :D My light bill was $40 less than last Jan and it's under $100 bucks, plus 3% rate hike since then. ;D

[Tom]

You have to flip that little on/off switch on the wall to the on position before they charge you, Swamp.  :D

[SwampDonkey]

That's only part of it. I meant to whole power bill. I have fridge, hot water and stove like everyone else, furnace and shop power tools. ;D

Of course we have to have a little fun tormenting. But, snow sleds go a whole lot easier in snow downhill and they pull a lot cheaper on man power. ;) ;D

[Tom]

You have a fridge?   Y'all must've had one of those New York style Yankee salesmen come through one time. They can sell one of those things to an eskimo.  What you do with it is stick that black string looking thing into the wall socket if the sun comes out and it'll keep your food from spoiling till the temperature drops back to normal again.