2007

[Ron Wenrich]

Time to dust off the crystal ball and make your 2007 predictions.  Poll expires 1-14-07

For what its worth, here is what we predicted last year:

A lot better - 13%
A little better - 23.5%
About the same - 32.2%
A little worse - 25.2%
A lot worse - 6.1%

[sjh]

I think a little worse. A good indicater to me is how many costruction workers are working. Around Rochester NY not many as should be.
Scott

[Furby]

I'd like to know the stats on this year if anyone knows them.

[Faron]

It is looking like the next several years may be very good for agriculture.  That can mean improvement in related sectors of the economy.

[DanG]

I checked "about the same" because I think things will continue to improve as they have in the past few years.  While it is true that construction starts are a bit down, I look for a boom in the "affordable" housing market.  From what I've seen, folks are beginning to realize that we cannot sustain the glut of $million homes that have been built recently, but there is a big need for more modest houses.

I see the family farm coming back, though it probably won't be seen all that much in just one year.  It will be, IMHO, a gradual change in the way agri-business is done, over the next few decades.

Mostly, though, I base my short term economic optimism on the fact that we are at war.  The domestic economy has always done well in wartime. :-\

[Ron Wenrich]

A lot depends on what you want to use as your indicator.  Although the GDP is increasing, it is doing it at a much slower pace.  Unemployment is down, but that's a lagging indicator.  Average hourly wages are up, but they are always up.

This past year has been pretty bumpy.  We've had some really high energy prices to contend with, now we are having high grain prices.  Will that end up as higher food costs?  Housing has dropped off by 25% and prices are starting to fall.  It has affected some parts of the wood industry, but not much in other parts.  Interest rates have gone up, but inflation hasn't fallen off that much. 

So, there's a lot that you can look at.  Its said that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job.  A depression is when you lose yours.

[DanG]

Yep, housing prices are starting to fall.  Is that bad?  Only if you're selling.  I look at a "good" economy as one where the common man can afford to better his situation.  Housing markets have been absurdly high, of late, and the average fellow couldn't find anything he could buy.  I view lower housing prices as a positive thing.

[Tom]

Jacksonville is booming with new construction.  The homes (starter homes?) are in the "low" $200,000's.

I don't know about you, but $200,000 and "low" don't belong in the same sentence.  When I was working, I could have afforded this price but would not have done it. Homes then were starting around $80,000 and still too much for a young couple starting off.

We are creating a society that will have no home or land.  The housing boom is self supporting and I think will crash inside of 5 years when the carpenters can no longer buy the houses to live in and the grocery stores can't sell groceries to workers who have no money.

This year will sustain more of the same "growth" that has been seen over the last 5 years.  I just see it as being to no avail.  If I were a young person, I would be trying to leave rather than invest in an overextended balloon.

[DanG]

That's exactly what I'm talkin' about, Tom.  Communities along the SE coast of Fla are already experiencing problems related to the high cost of land and housing.  They are going to fall over soon, because of it, too.  The trouble is, there is nowhere for the service class of people to live, so they are leaving in droves.  Now, there is nobody to run the convenience stores, or any other kind of stores for that matter, or to repair the autos and homes that have clogged the area.  Now, I know that doesn't sound very optimistic, but if that area goes down, the rest of the Country might just take heed, and see that EVERYBODY needs a place to live.  If they do, then the housing "crash" might just turn out to be a "boom" instead.

[Ron Wenrich]

Remember those good old days when you had to have 20% down just in order to buy a home?  That isn't the case anymore.  A lot of people have now gotten to the point where they have sucked all the equity out of their homes and then just make monthly payments to the bank.

But, when housing values drop, these folks are in a negative situation and have to make up the difference.  So, if their homes drop $10,000 in value, they need to come up with the difference just to satisfy their equity position.  If they had home equity, there wouldn't be a problem. 

Down in your area, there was a lot of speculation.  Housing values went way up, and people just refinanced so they had money to spend on other trinkets, instead of paying off the debt. 

If people want affordable housing, then they are going to have to settle for a lot smaller homes.  Things that don't have those high utility bills and high taxes.  But, builders don't make as much money on those, so they build the more expensive ones.  Then you run into the problem the car companies have.  They made a lot of expensive SUVs only to find that no one wanted them.  So, they got stuck with inventory.  Same thing with housing.

Things are going to start getting tougher as the boomers retire.  They will want to move to smaller housing due to needs and fixed incomes.  More of the big homes will be for sale, but there will be fewer buyers that can afford them.  You'll see the same thing in the stock market when boomers start to cash in their retirement accounts for a more stable income producer.

[dave7191]

 Well I'm going to be optimistic and say it will stay about the same  You were saying that ag was doing well that is only the grain farmer and even then the fuel prices have taken most of the price increase the meat and dairy industry is hurting because of the feed prices we have taken a .60 hit per rabbit in the last 4 months  was talking to the neighbor the other day and he said that his calf feed had gone up to 168 a ton fron 110  the dairys are having the same trouble with no increase in milk prices Housing cost are
starting down and that may help things some

[DanG]

Just call me a cockeyed optimist, but I think a crash might be a good thing, in the long run.  Sure, some hapless souls will lose their shirt, but maybe that will encourage them to start making shirts instead of just sitting there shuffling other people's money around.  The Constitution guarantees us the right to pursue happiness, but that doesn't ensure that we're gonna catch it.  I don't view it a tragedy if somebody who has been living high suddenly has to live like I do. :

Dave, that's exactly why I think the family farm is coming back.  My Grandpa had a little dairy, and he, along with my Uncles, raised all their own feed.  They were up before dawn to milk, and were out after dark milking.  In between, they tended the crops that fed the cows that fed them.  This notion that ya have to buy everything has got to go!

[TexasTimbers]

I am the sole vote for Alot Better!

You Naysayers can kiss my Grits!  ;D

But don't eat 'em I like 'em as much as DanG.  ;)

Probably more so now that they are on my "You can't eat that anymore" list

But back to the economy. It is going to be our best year yet in terms of almost everything. It might be our best worst year in terms of others. Pick your battles, praise God, and pass the ammunition (and the Girts!).

P.S. I think we will nab Osama on April fools day too. You heard it here first on the FF newswire . . . . . . .

[D._Frederick]

What about Exxon-Mobil paying a $400 million going away present to thier  ex-CEO? Our nation is out of balance in paying CEO's, the crooks have taken over our corporations.

[TexasTimbers]

. . . . the crooks have taken over our corporations. .. . .

Yep there will always be corruption and crime and sin. Even a cursory study of America's history of commerce and business endeavors of early entrepreneurs will point to a history of this from even before our country was officially founded. But there also comes a reckoning.

In the meantime do your best, be your best, live your best, forget the rest. Have a great year in spite of them.

[farmerdoug]

After the 911 attack I remember an government econimist say that the econmy would get back on its feet if the people would just step up to the plate and start borrowing with equity they still have and spend it.  : What a crock of DanG.

When I was in High School I remember them saying that you should save aleast 20% of you pay.  When I finished college that was down to 10%.  By the mid 90's they said the interest is to low so spend it all.  By 2000 they said borrow as the interest rates are so low you are stupid not too.  :( Now this generation has not saved a dime and penisons and SS are disappearing fast.  DanG if we do not reeducate people there will be alot of homeless to come. >:(

Farmerdoug

[dave7191]

 DanG that is one of the problems with raising rabbits is that they need the prosessed food to be produtive enough to pay to raise them and may be why we add to the goat herd and cut the rabbits way back at least till the market stablizes capasity for 150 working does don't have but 100 now and may cut it to 50

[Part_Timer]

What I'm wondering is where the dairy/cattle farmers are going to get their corn around here.  They are breaking ground on 5 ethanol plants within 45 minutes of the house one of which ( Jay county) is supposed to be the largest this side of the Mississippi river. 

I was talking to our Electric company rep at work the other day and he was telling me of 4 more bout 2 hours south of here.  I asked him where they were going to get the power for all of them, my lights go out here 2-3 times a week as it is.  Guess I better get a bigger generator.

[Paul_H]

Iowa Corn Link

Distillers dry grains can be fed to cattle after distilation and apparently the yeast adds extra protein.Does anybody here have experience with DDG's?
It sounds interesting.

[Fla._Deadheader]

FINALLY. Someone has said that you can get 2 times the value from Corn and also other grains. 

 

Distillers dry grains can be fed to cattle after distilation and apparently the yeast adds extra protein.

  I was trying to make that point on another thread a long while back, but, no one would listen. Same for Bio fuels, too.

  There is LOTS that can help with energy, right there in the States or anywhere.  8)

[DanG]

Yep, FDH!  You can take a 40lb bushel of corn, extract all the corn oil from it, then make all the alchohol you can out of it, and still have 32 pounds of cattle feed.  That's what all the naysayers are overlooking.  They are also ignorant of the fact that we can take all the manure that is produced by the cattle, as well as poultry, and compost it in methane digesters, then use the residue to fertilize the fields to grow some more.  We are already independant of petroleum, but don't even know it yet!  The so-called "farmers" around here are putting pine plantations in their fields to get that $42 per acre/per year from the CRP, and "working" at the university so they can buy their food at the supermarket! ??? :

[Norm]

An Iowa corn link! DDG's are an excellent source of feed for cattle, unfortunately other animals are not able to digest it as well (piggers poultry and such). Where's the energy come from to produce it? One place is on the main rail line out of Wyoming another is teaming up with a big cattle feed yard burning the backside of the cattle. Some are putting up windmills (Iowa is a windy prairie state). Even then there is only so much corn to be had and the holy grail will be using celluose products for ethanol. There's tons of dollars in research being devoted to it and my guess is we'll have it in 5-7 years.

No one renewable energy will stop our oil use or even cut it much but it amazes me when oil gets expensive through supply and demand (not taxes) people start finding other ways to run the car and heat the house.

Me I think the economy will be about the same, 06 will be hard to beat. I already had to buy another wheelbarrow to take all the cash to the bank. ;D

[farmerdoug]

I am not sure if the yeast really adds that much protien to distillers grain.  The biggest thing going for distillers grain for cattle is you can feed alot more of it at a time to the cows replacing other protein sources than you can feed of regular corn.  Corn still has the starches in it and the distillers grain the starches have been removed for the ethanol therefore increasing the protein percentage that route.  The sugars and starches cause a real problem with cows causing bloating and can kill them so the distillers grain is much safer.  Therefore there will be more feedstock available from corn for the cows than can actually be used now.  The real problem will be the shift to corn production on other grains.  This will probably cost us more at the supermarket as ussual.

Farmerdoug

[Fla._Deadheader]

The BIG picture is, there are BETTER crops to grow for fuel production than Corn. Don't know WHY everyone gets het up over Corn. It is HARD on the ground, taking LOTS of nutrients. There is LOTS of waste. You have to DRY it, for some applications or to store it for future use.

[Patty]

Yep, they are talking about converting several wasted acres of farm land into growing alternate crops for ethanal production. As long as oil prices stay high, alternate sources of fuel will be created. If oil prices drop, so does the incentive for alternate fuels. FOLLOW THE MONEY!   ;)

I used to actually listen to the chicken little doom sayers....what a downer! Once I learned to ignore them and follow my instincts, my world turned around and became a place of joy.   


The Future is so bright, I gotta wear shades!  8) 8)  (my favorite song)