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Author Topic: Serious climate change  (Read 8040 times)

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Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #40 on: December 28, 2010, 02:23:40 AM »
Just last week they complained no ice on the Arctic to seal hunt yet this year. I don't know exactly what it means. Could very well have been many years like that, they only report on the now and memory gets a little foggy looking back 25-30. I've had to go to climate records from NOAA to prove how foggy some memories about the past weather was around here. :D In 1981, we had to mildest winter ever, locust trees leaved out in February. Later they died from frost in March, but it wasn't real cold, just below freezing.



Snow at Serpentine Lake (c. 1960's). Grandfather clearing the roof.
Move'n on.

Offline Bandmill Bandit

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #41 on: December 28, 2010, 09:27:07 AM »
Hey Brucer
On the Greenland thing, if you do a little research you will find that one of the primary reasons for that ice loss is most likely caused by ever increasing volcanic activity UNDER the glacial ice than from global warming of any kind. Studies under way in Greenland are pointing that direction as more and more data is gathered.

As far as the poles being cooler that last few years all you have to do is talk to a couple of the ice road truckers that work up there and you will get about the most honest and objective answer you will find. Their livelihood depends on the cold as well as their very life.

 At south pole the last few years has had wider ice pack to the point that it has affected the mortality level of the penguins during the nesting and brooding season. Some of this is thought to be the marginally  cooler temps lasting from 2 to 6 weeks longer and the ocean current having deviated some what the last few years. That same deviation is affecting the great barrier reef and kelp forests along the south coast of Austrailia. for the most part he affect in the open water areas has been positive and the kelp forests are show significant signs of recovery. AND yet again it appears to be a cyclical thing that may well be occurring through out the entire global ocean.

You may well be having a "warmer" winter out there but i can tell you that this has been one of the coldest winters with and early start on this side of the rockies out here on the prairies for many years. Average snow so far is less, at least on the prairies but the mountains are slightly above average so far. Before you say it has been a warmer winter you better wait till you see when it warms into the spring time.

The number of frost free or near frost days has a much greater affect on annual average temp than the how cold the average daily temp is. We have had one very short Chinook so far this winter that didn't even get us warm enough to get barely slushy for more than 2 or 3 hours. Winter started here a week before Halloween and it been *DanG cold ever since.   

 
   
If you ain't livin on the edge you are takin up way to much room. Of course at my age if I get too close to that edge any more theres a good chance I may fall off.
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Offline Brucer

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #42 on: December 29, 2010, 02:05:50 AM »
On the Greenland thing, if you do a little research you will find that one of the primary reasons for that ice loss is most likely caused by ever increasing volcanic activity UNDER the glacial ice than from global warming of any kind.

I frankly dislike the term “global warming”. It’s completely misleading. What concerns me is the practical effects of climate change. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet, whatever the cause, is the canary in the coal mine. And so I do a lot of research on Greenland.

There’s a 2007 reference to a thinning crust in northern Greenland causing accelerated ice loss, and there are several recent references to increased earthquake activity (probably due to  ice loss). However, I’ve not come across any references to volcanic activity. If you can point me at any studies on volcanic activity, I would very much appreciate it.

There have been quite a few new discoveries this year regarding Greenland. Two independent studies in February found that there is a steady flow of warm water (i.e., 4 C / 39 F) into the glacial fjords, and that subsurface melting is about 100 times greater than surface melting. No one suspected this.

A report out this month shows that sudden surges of water (large rainstorms, sudden drainage of surface lakes) have a major effect on glacier travel. Again, completely unexpected.

And not so much a new discovery, the latest ice balance numbers show that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet continues to accelerate.

Quote
As far as the poles being cooler that last few years all you have to do is talk to a couple of the ice road truckers that work up there and you will get about the most honest and objective answer you will find. Their livelihood depends on the cold as well as their very life.

I would very much like to talk to some ice road truckers. If you have any contacts, I’d be interested.

Quote
At south pole the last few years has had wider ice pack to the point that it has affected the mortality level of the penguins during the nesting and brooding season.

Floating Antarctic ice has been increasing for a few years now. Grounded ice is decreasing. The East Antarctic ice shelf appears to be in balance, but the West Antarctic ice shelf is showing a net loss of ice. Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf is losing ice (at least for now). Floating ice doesn't affect sea levels -- grounded ice does, when it melts.

Quote
Before you say it has been a warmer winter you better wait till you see when it warms into the spring time.

I was just trying to illustrate that while the East has been experiencing colder weather to date, the opposite is happening in the West. Neither condition is a valid indicator of planetary temperature change.

Quote
We have had one very short Chinook so far this winter that didn't even get us warm enough to get barely slushy for more than 2 or 3 hours.

I read a report last year that described the Chinook as a north-south band of warm air that shifts slightly east or west. That’s why it can cause such sudden temperature changes. Apparently this band has move further west (to our side of the rockies) and that’s why we’re seeing these sudden melting events.

Bruce    LT40HDG28 bandsaw with two 6' extensions.
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Offline D Hagens

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #43 on: December 29, 2010, 03:58:27 AM »

 Yeah so like after reading all of this I'm under the impression that it's going to keep raining for the next two weeks?  :) :D And how will all this global warming affect the swamp loggers. ::) ::) :)

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #44 on: December 29, 2010, 04:44:13 AM »
The volcano activity is in Iceland, not Greenland. And has been a threat to settlement there for a very long time. Baffin Island in Canada is a huge store of glacial ice to and there are huge mountains there that people go and climb for recreation.
Move'n on.

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #45 on: December 29, 2010, 04:55:45 AM »
According to the 30 year data used to update the frost hardiness zones we haven't change any here in NB since the last updates in 1967.  ;D Our biggest threat has been higher incidence, than the national average, of cancer due to pollutants coming east in the wind from the more industrial areas. Can't see it, can't smell it, can't be.  ::)
Move'n on.

Offline Bandmill Bandit

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #46 on: December 29, 2010, 10:00:39 AM »
Hey brucer

That 2007 study you are talking about is the same one i am talking about. I watched a discovery channel bit on green land.  I think it was 2 show event if i remember right.

One theory on the thinning crust is that there is an increasing heat build up from deep volcanic activity and that is causing the crust to turn molten because of the extra heat. So i guess it would be a combination thinning/crust deep volcanic activity.

On the chinook thing; Give that sucker a good hard push so it gets over on this side of the Rocks for a week or two.

On the ice road. My Brother has a couple of friends that drive it every winter. I will check with him and see where they are at. I don't think they would have a problem talking to you. The one that I talk to about once a year when i drive up north to visit my brother says the last 10 years or so have been colder winter temps with less snow and more wind. I guess this year the colder temps are about the same as last year so far and getting to be some pretty heavy snow as well.

One other thing i heard from a research assistant on the glacial project that is helping compile that data is that the total ice on the planet does not appear to be to be changing so much as relocating. She didn't give me the details as we were at a formal function and couldn't chat a lot but she says the data on global ice totals from ALL known ice reserves is changing but it is more shifting location than disappearing. Actual total Ice is about the same as it was in the 1950s and yes there is more floating ice the last few years but there was a lot more floating ice for a few years in the early 1900s as well 1915 still holds a significant position as one of the worst ice flow years in naval transport history. more later

I am going to Europe in March and I will be staying with her parents for a week so will get a chance to go to the university with her and talk to a couple of the profs involved in the project. Her mom is my Cousin.       
If you ain't livin on the edge you are takin up way to much room. Of course at my age if I get too close to that edge any more theres a good chance I may fall off.
2001 Dodge 1500 4x4. 2018 F150
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2 Logrite 36 inch cant hooks and a bunch of stuff I built myself

Offline jim king

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #47 on: December 29, 2010, 10:45:38 AM »
I just did a Google on - volcanic warming - and as always with this topic there is something there for everyone.  I think in another thousand years humans may be smart enough to know what is happening and why.

Some,  like this link are interesting:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39632361/ns/technology_and_science-science/

Greenland:
http://www.medindia.net/news/Volcano-Deep-Down-Could-Be-Melting-Greenlands-Ice-30702-1.htm
http://www.physorg.com/news96823193.html

We have a long way to go.  Just ask old Al, he seems pretty quiet these days.  The very profitable global warming scare is no longer an easy sell .

Offline Brucer

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #48 on: December 29, 2010, 09:20:32 PM »
On the chinook thing; Give that sucker a good hard push so it gets over on this side of the Rocks for a week or two.

Looks like it's going to be heading your way around the end of the week. Don't know if it will make it over the Rockies or not.

Quote
... the total ice on the planet does not appear to be to be changing so much as relocating.

Ice shelves -- floating ice -- don't make any difference to ocean levels when they melt. Ice sheets -- grounded ice -- do make a difference. Greenland ice alone can raise the ocean levels 7 metres, which would shut down every seaport in the world.

There's good evidence in the ice record that when Greenland ice was melting, Antarctic ice was rising (and vice versa). But right now we're seeing Greenland ice melting and West Antarctic ice melting, well East Antarctic ice is in balance. So the big question is, will one of them turn around in the next few years?

Regarding the links Jim posted ...

Quote
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39632361/ns/technology_and_science-science/

Basically says that Volcanic activity in Alaska in 2008 fertilized the ocean, causing an enormous growth in phytoplankton. This stuff is the bottom of the ocean food chain and it also generates about half the planet's oxygen (and consumes a great deal more CO2). The authors' say that  the extra phytoplankton in 2008 hardly made a dent in atmospheric CO2.

Well, this years record Pacific salmon run on the west coast (totally unexpected) has been traced back to the 2008 eruption and the resulting growth of phytoplankton.

However, any notion that these tiny plants could have a short term effect on atmospheric CO2 is silly. Phytoplankton get their CO2 from gasses dissolved in the ocean, and there has been a great deal more CO2 added to the ocean than the atmosphere.

Quote
http://www.medindia.net/news/Volcano-Deep-Down-Could-Be-Melting-Greenlands-Ice-30702-1.htm

This is another report on the same event reported in 2007, about the earth's crust thinning in northern Greenland. The crust is already thinner there than in the centre of the island, so this could indeed explain the faster melting of the northern part of the ice sheet.

Quote
http://www.physorg.com/news96823193.html

Here's the summary for that 2007 report:

"A team of scientists announced today confirmation of a link between massive volcanic eruptions along the east coast of Greenland and in the western British Isles about 55 million years ago and a period of global warming that raised sea surface temperatures by five degrees (Celsius) in the tropics and more than six degrees in the Arctic."

The report is incomplete. What it doesn't say mention is that the amount of CO2 generated by that volcanic activity could not possibly have produced all the CO2 in the atmosphere at that time.

There has long been a link between the high temperatures and a massive release of Methane trapped in frozen Methane Hydrates found deep in the ocean. It's believed that high C02 levels raised ocean temperatures to the point where more and more methane was released, causing more warming, leading to more methane release, etc. -- a positive feedback loop.

The only flaw in this theory was that there was no satisfactory explanation for what started the runaway release of methane in the first place. The Greenland volcanic activity supplies the missing link.

The message on that web page seems to hint that runaway heating was generated only by volcanic activity (which isn't possible). When you add in the runaway Methane release to the picture, the story is different: any major heating of the ocean, by whatever means, can trigger another runaway release of Methane.
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Offline Bandmill Bandit

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #49 on: December 30, 2010, 09:19:09 AM »
Watched a discovery show last night on the Iceland volcanic eruptions of this past summer and what is currently under observation.

I guess the thing that should concern us the most is the way the information that is apparent is used and how the SPIN DRs try to articulate what based on incomplete data and is in reality nothing more then a theoretical opinion. With the volume of "theory" from this so called "scientific community" that is daily being debunked with much of the data proving to be out right fraud how can we really know what is truth?

do we really need this much "snake oil" in the world? Sure a lot of self appointed sales men peddling the stuff.


bottom line probably hasn't changed much over the last 10,000 (add as many zeros as you like) or so years.
If you ain't livin on the edge you are takin up way to much room. Of course at my age if I get too close to that edge any more theres a good chance I may fall off.
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Offline northwoods1

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #50 on: December 30, 2010, 10:01:33 AM »


bottom line probably hasn't changed much over the last 10,000 (add as many zeros as you like) or so years.

What do you mean , that the climate hasn't changed in 10,000 years?  ??? or more?

I hope that isn't what your are trying to say because that is so totally untrue it would be ridiculous.

Offline Bandmill Bandit

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #51 on: December 30, 2010, 12:44:32 PM »


bottom line probably hasn't changed much over the last 10,000 (add as many zeros as you like) or so years.

What do you mean , that the climate hasn't changed in 10,000 years?  ??? or more?

I hope that isn't what your are trying to say because that is so totally untrue it would be ridiculous.

I didn't say it "hasn't changed". I said it "hasn't changed MUCH". The problem with saying that way is that we then have to define the context of "much". That is where the pundits get all screwed up, because no one pundit is willing to sit down with the other pundits and define a standard context for "MUCH". There for we end up with too "MUCH" useless theoretical opinion based on too "MUCH" ass u me d theoretical knowledge.

Bottom line? NO ONE knows for sure! NEVER has! NEVER will!

Now let jsut get over it already and enjoy the beauty that there is in and on this planet and the life that occupies it.   
If you ain't livin on the edge you are takin up way to much room. Of course at my age if I get too close to that edge any more theres a good chance I may fall off.
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Offline Cedarman

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #52 on: December 30, 2010, 04:33:20 PM »
There is quite a bit of corn grown today where there was a mile or more thick sheet of ice just a few 10's of thousand years ago.  I do believe the climate is a tad different at those spots.  About 10,000 years ago the Mediteranian sea was rather empty because sea levels had dropped so much that land was above sea level between the Rock of Gibralter and Africa and the water in the Mediteranian dried up.  A little climate change around that area.  The Sahara desert has changed back and forth many times from lush green to arid dry.  Now that is a serious climate change.
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Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #53 on: December 30, 2010, 04:53:50 PM »
A lot of the Maritimes was under sea water one time and that was before the last ice age. I've found sea fossils on the River Don, which is about dead centre of New Brunswick (east west), but maybe 20 % further north than south. Nova Scotia was attached to Africa, same rock strata as North Africa and fossil evidence.
Move'n on.

Offline Bandmill Bandit

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #54 on: December 30, 2010, 11:01:34 PM »
i am not arguing any of that, but the last 10,000 years have been relatively stable according to SOME sources. Start moving out at the rate of 10,000 years per unit and the change is more pronounced but other than theoretical catastrophic events each unit of 10,000 years does not show "much" change. BUT every one does show steady change.
If you ain't livin on the edge you are takin up way to much room. Of course at my age if I get too close to that edge any more theres a good chance I may fall off.
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Offline Brucer

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #55 on: December 30, 2010, 11:53:37 PM »
9993 ... 9994 ... 9995

 ;D
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Offline Bandmill Bandit

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #56 on: December 31, 2010, 12:02:12 AM »
9993 ... 9994 ... 9995

 ;D

yea you got it! 8) 9996... 9997... 9998... 9999... 10,000... opps that was a catastrophic change!
or was it?
If you ain't livin on the edge you are takin up way to much room. Of course at my age if I get too close to that edge any more theres a good chance I may fall off.
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Offline sharp edge

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #57 on: December 31, 2010, 12:36:40 AM »
SD
At one time the earth was smaller and water cover a lot more land. Now the earth is warming up and getting bigger. To see if this true I'm watching the hi-line wires. Look like they are getting tigher and will break. On the + side people who have 80 will soone have 81 acres.  8) 8) 8)

SE
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Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Serious climate change
« Reply #58 on: December 31, 2010, 04:38:27 AM »
I think some folk's heads are swelling faster than the earth, to much knowledge stuffed up there. Something has to give. :D :D
Move'n on.


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