Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic

[mills]

I know everything is still a big unknown, but does anyone have any insights or theories on what our timber markets will look like once we work our way through this virus pandemic?

[Jeff]

There are 3 topics currently running on the virus. One in the restricted topic area and one in health and safety and one in full member business.  This will be the last  new topic allowed as it is a different theme. Post accordingly.  Any posts outside of the restricted board that becomes political or requires a foil hat will be deleted. If that person  does it twice causing an admin to take action, you will become unable to post until this ordeal is over or under control.  

Order here will be maintained as  it always has.

[nativewolf]

Well we actually have seen some recent upticks in pricing, for RO.  WO is still strong/hot.  Walnut good but not hot.  We hear China is out of logs and ready to buy but not much in the way of orders yet, the tariffs on oaks are off though.  For the spring/summer market you are looking at two sets of impacts that are reinforcing.  The traditional pull back of the hardwood market pricing in the summer and the demand side of things; the conflict between reductions caused by the virus and the positive impact of China becoming a buyer.  Which one wins out?  Probably the virus because we had a long long growth spurt.  Too long to not get hit by a recession without the virus.  Now that the virus is here and sucking up all the monies and savings I doubt the timber market in China can replace that.  For many Asian companies the purpose of buying logs was to make furniture to send back to the USA.  So, even some Asian demand could fall as the customers stay home (a joke  ;D).  

Now that is all hardwood related.  Softwoods I have no idea.  Does building pickup with free money? 

In summary...I think the required recession is here, might last a bit longer than 2 quarters..maybe a full year.  I don't see China offsetting a recession in the USA.  

Just my thoughts and worth what you paid..or a bit less.  

[bushmechanic]

One thing is for sure and certain... it will be a long time before anyone in Canada needs toilet paper!!! :D

[jmouton]

i ve got my foil hat on ,just in case jeff,   2 layers of foil too

[nativewolf]

Hearing from some big mills that they expect things to be quite busy in 2 weeks and demand is picking up from China.  Nearly every mill in Ohio and PA  are still milling inventory and log yards will be empty very soon.  2 PA mills have a concentration yard in VA and they are stocking up here for when they are allowed to bring logs into the facilities in PA.  Ohio mills that buy from us are back to work already but 1 large mill is out of logs so I guess they stay closed.  I hear that there were going to be price increases at several mills for RO.  We'll see how that plays out.  Also high end WO moving higher.

That's all the news I got.

[timberking]

Down here pine logs are very tight with mills holding down inventory.  Hardwood logs are getting soft as we are having a tough time moving flooring and hoping the tie market doesn't crater from oversupply.  Economy will probably bounce back at the end of the building season and we  tuff it out another winter

[ehp]

here they just told us tonight to figure most things to be shut down until summer at earliest and it most likely will be longer than that

[Skeans1]

How's the squeeze affecting everyone else so far? Most of our domestic mills are pretty much stuff full we're all on quotas of a trickle but export isn't a problem or pulp go figure.

[nativewolf]

pulp is a bit recession proof and of course....someone bought all the toliet paper.. :D

Our export buyers are mixed, some shut some open.  Mostly the good stuff is worth cutting..the bad stuff is turned into timbers which is still moving and it is the middle sawlog that is harder to profit from today.

[timberking]

We just found out that Domtar is delaying restarting a machine in Ashdown Ar. and one in Tenn.  The Ashdown mill buys our sawmill chips so now we hustle something up or shut the mill down 

[Firewoodjoe]

All the big mills here are shut down or on quotas and thats very little. And other mills are just having trouble selling products. Orders are way down or being canceled so the mills fill up. It's not good for sure. 

[WDH]

Per the Hardwood Market Report this week, soft maple, yellow poplar, and white oak lumber are moving well, red oak has picked up a little bit as China has been re-started buying but is still slow domestically.  Ash is very hard to move, and cherry is a total dog.  FAS soft maple is selling at a higher price ($1.95/bf) than FAS cherry ($1.50/bf) for kiln dried tractor trailer loads, Appalachian Region.  Cherry is selling for only a nickle more than hickory.   Here is a quote on cherry, "Residential and commercial fittings and furnishings with red appearances remain unfashionable in the US and Canada."  If you have cherry timber, it would be prudent to let it keep growing for the time being. 

[nativewolf]

What's the green YP going for @WDH ?  The summer plan is to cut YP til fall.

[Stephen1]

Per the Hardwood Market Report this week, soft maple, yellow poplar, and white oak lumber are moving well, red oak has picked up a little bit as China has been re-started buying but is still slow domestically.  Ash is very hard to move, and cherry is a total dog.  FAS soft maple is selling at a higher price ($1.95/bf) than FAS cherry ($1.50/bf) for kiln dried tractor trailer loads, Appalachian Region.  Cherry is selling for only a nickle more than hickory.   Here is a quote on cherry, "Residential and commercial fittings and furnishings with red appearances remain unfashionable in the US and Canada."  If you have cherry timber, it would be prudent to let it keep growing for the time being.

Whoops, I just put 1000 Bd Ft of 1x 8 cherry in the kiln, I'm making flooring for my new house. 

[WDH]

Yellow Poplar, tractor trailer load quantity, F.O.B sawmill (means freight on board, does not include shipping/trucking cost):

Green:
4/4 FAS $765 per MBF (thousand board feet).
4/4 #1C $370
8/4 FAS $810

Kiln Dried, Rough:
4/4 FAS $1120
4/4 #1C $690
8/4 FAS $1245

[lazyflee]

Just reading because of interesting topic. What is RO & WO?

[bwstout]

RO Red Oak  WO  White Oak

[BargeMonkey]

The latest price sheet I got for logs would make you sick. Its roughly 2/3 what it was 4wks ago and that wasnt good. Anything beyond a #1A is 150per mbdft, so basically a short #1-#2 goes for firewood. Guys here who can afford to shutdown are, I've got some ash to finish for the buyer and that's it for good wood for me for a while. 

[BAN]

Idaho Forest Group and Stimson have stopped buying  until early to mid May hopefully. Next month is gonna be interesting 

[PoginyHill]

Any thoughts on the softwood market (spruce/fir). I know of one yard that reduced their price from $300/mbf to $225. Any guesses if/when it might go back up?

[nativewolf]

Glad to see the YP pricing.

[nativewolf]

at a certain level, and some of the pricing seems to be there already, it is simply not worth harvesting.  As @BargeMonkey says if you can afford to shutdown you do.  

The only thing keeping us waking up at 4am is the WO market.

[Bandmill Bandit]

At this point we are seeing a steady rise as export orders of SPF to the Asian market is recovering and actually increasing. Not sure how long it will hold but looking good right now. Prices generally up in the range 15%+ so far.

[ehp]

what is going to kill us up here is everything else is shut down so you need parts good luck getting them what should take an hour takes a week now or longer , mill here is still taking logs but for how long I cannot say and its not up to the mill. If govt says your closed your closed