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Lumber prices too high

Started by livemusic, November 30, 2020, 09:06:33 AM

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Southside

I wonder if BOA is short steel stocks with talk like that.
Franklin buncher and skidder
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Woodmizer LT Super 70 and LT35 sawmill, KD250 kiln, BMS 250 sharpener and setter
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Woodmaster 725 and 4000 planner and moulder
Enough cows to ensure there is no spare time.
White Oak Meadows

mike_belben

i dunno but i smell blood in the water.  theres gonna be all sorts of bargains. 
Praise The Lord

Ed_K

 spf 1k bf hit $1600. this morning on the stock market, but I see it back down this afternoon  $1576.
Ed K

nativewolf

Significant expansions announced this week at multiple mills in the SE.  Combined with the big expansion up in Maine I suppose we are finally seeing some of the capacity expansion that could drive log prices higher, finally.

West Fraiser is expanding 5 mills and Interfor is rebuilding one.
Liking Walnut

Walnut Beast

Quote from: Southside on May 05, 2021, 06:17:23 PM
Tesla lost in the range of $200 million selling vehicles last quarter. Playing with credits and Bitcoin is what saved them.
Now Tesla announced they will not accept crypto currency anymore. They received much backlash from people about crypto because of the extreme energy it takes to mine it. That goes against there values Musk stated. They won't sell their Bitcoin they have now. But they will be looking into more energy efficient crypto or wait till Bitcoin can do it more efficient. A day after Musk announced no crypto 365 billion wiped off crypto 😂. You can mine for Bitcoin at home if you get the computer stuff to do it. If you think a I Dry pulls some some energy try mining for crypto 😂

btulloh

Beads and trinkets. Timeless. 
HM126

azmtnman

Talked to a buddy in southern Indiana today. He said he saw 3/4 OSB at Menard's for $95.00 a sheet!!!  smiley_huh ??? What the heck?? 95 bucks for glue and sawdust?? 
1983 LT 30, 1990 Kubota L3750DT, 2006 Polaris 500 EFI, '03 Dodge D2500 Cummins powered 4X4 long-bed crew cab, 1961 Ford backhoe, Stihl MS250, MS311 and MS661--I cut trees for my boss who was a Jewish carpenter!

mike_belben

Quote from: azmtnman on May 14, 2021, 11:11:32 PM
Talked to a buddy in southern Indiana today. He said he saw 3/4 OSB at Menard's for $95.00 a sheet!!!  smiley_huh ??? What the heck?? 95 bucks for glue and sawdust??
If there was 26.8 trillion shares of a company in circulation, theyd be pretty worthless too!  
Praise The Lord

Walnut Beast

Quote from: azmtnman on May 14, 2021, 11:11:32 PM
Talked to a buddy in southern Indiana today. He said he saw 3/4 OSB at Menard's for $95.00 a sheet!!!  smiley_huh ??? What the heck?? 95 bucks for glue and sawdust??
Not far off. I looked up Muncie and it was 61 and some change 🤬 WOW

azmtnman

We (me and my board of directors) have been talking about building 3 new cabins. I sent a material list to one of them on March 21. 7/16 OSB was $12.25. We kind of drug our feet so I sent an updated price list on April 21. 7/16 OSB was $43.29!!! A quick glance at my price sheet shows everything else up from 10-15% in that same period of time.
Just checked Lowes again. It's $54.10. That's just ridiculous! 

  
1983 LT 30, 1990 Kubota L3750DT, 2006 Polaris 500 EFI, '03 Dodge D2500 Cummins powered 4X4 long-bed crew cab, 1961 Ford backhoe, Stihl MS250, MS311 and MS661--I cut trees for my boss who was a Jewish carpenter!

mike_belben

The real danger here isnt the stupid prices.  Theyre very temporary.  

Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything. 
Praise The Lord

Ianab

Quote from: mike_belben on May 15, 2021, 02:53:11 AM
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices.  Theyre very temporary.  

Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
This is true, but there is the other stupid people that will decide they can get rich on this price bubble. Investing too much, based on the crazy prices. If you do your business plan on $10 boards and the price comes back to $5, people go broke. 
NZ has tried price controls in past, and you are right, they don't work, and have been abandoned as a dumb idea. So, "recover" is possible, but they are a bad idea still. It was a bad political experiment. 
Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

SwampDonkey

They keep feeding us demand is up with all this COVID money. Well, if you're not working and you're getting that, how are you further ahead? Only way we get that money up here, as a non-business entity, is if not working, kind of unemployment. We don't get a $900 a week cheque from work, plus $2000 a month extra unless you have 4 kids (and you already had that money anyway before COVID). So the math don't work for higher demand unless you guys down south get paid from your employer plus government COVID on top. All construction around here is commercial, so steel not wood. Not a single house being built in my travels. Crabbe's mill yard is stuffed full of wood that has sat for months uncovered and getting a little grey around the edges. Still sawing and kilning. When it gets to a point of no return, they can shove it through the pellet mill. :D

Only the filthy rich are building with $2000/mbf 2 x's and $120 a sheet 1/2" spruce plywood. :D

Somebody is the gate keeper and it ain't the consumer, nor is it the loggers. If it were me I'd shut down logging until I got my share. It's just equipment, so tell the financier to come get it if they want it that bad. :D  

Had a guy suggest you can sell biomass (low quality wood) for $60/cord. I said why would I do that when firewood is $300+ a cord? I wasn't raised a fool. :D
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Al_Smith

The last time price controls were enacted it didn't work .I doubt seriously if they ever will .It was comical in a way .The controls put on the auto industry didn't control extras such as whitewall tires, air conditioning  etc .All they did was make those standard items  and thus raised the prices .
Controls on wages caught me because I was an apprentice electrician at the time .Two  or three of my periodic increases were stopped and I really could have used the extra money at that time .

The brotherhood of railroad engineers stopped that .It only took a four day strike and they got their raise and soon after there were no more price controls .
Need I remind the boycott dubbed the house wives protest on sugar .It only took two weeks and the bottom fell out of sugar prices .So it's simple enough don't buy any lumber .
The stock market, as I've said is ink on paper or rather a computer file some place .Historically it ebbs and flows but still long term returns about 11 percent .If you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen they say .That in 401K's you're ahead of the game any way ,the money was tax deferred .You have to draw out 4 percent yearly so that  could fluctuate .BTW one of mine this year returned 37 percent and I have 4 of them .For that matter I don't even need them to still live good .If they tanked 40 percent I'm still ahead of the game and they will come back given enough time .I don't lose any sleep over the whole messy situation the world is in. I certainly cannot change it . ---more --- 

Al_Smith

I won't get into the politics of it but it wasn't that long ago they enacted a 20 dollar surcharge on credit cards .I just fired everyone of them .It wasn't too long they all wanted to be my buddy .If they do it again ,I'll fire them all again ,it's that simple .I've  worked my entire life time for what I've got and I get greatly offended if some body tries to get their hands on my wallet .Actually junk yard dog furious .

jimbarry

Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 15, 2021, 04:33:28 AM
...
Had a guy suggest you can sell biomass (low quality wood) for $60/cord. I said why would I do that when firewood is $300+ a cord? I wasn't raised a fool. :D
Or sell it for kindling at $900 a cord  :D

Ianab

Quote from: Al_Smith on May 15, 2021, 04:53:26 AMThe stock market, as I've said is ink on paper or rather a computer file some place .Historically it ebbs and flows but still long term returns about 11 percent .If you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen they say



While it is just numbers on computer screen, the safer investments are actually a "share" in some real assets. You know, a factory, power station, something "real". Something that both generates profit, and gains (or at least retains) value. The more "speculative" shares tend to have less asset backing, and it becomes less clear what you actually own. 


My late Father sold out of a high flying "investment" company before a Stock Market crash, because he realised all the "assets" it held were shares in other "investment" companies. House of cards stuff, there was no "real" assets or profit making business involved. The "profits" they recorded were merely other "house of cards" stocks going up in value.


As you say, if you invest in a "genuine" business, then it's assets should be increasing along with inflation, AND the business is is making a profit to either grow (increase in value) or pay a dividend. That will all go up and down with economic fortunes, but long term a spread portfolio should steadily increase. 
Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

Ed_K

 Price of spf 1k on bloomberg dropped to $1435. From a high of $1800.or $1900. a week ago.
Ed K

Al_Smith

That's what I don't get about  this underground "bit coin " thing .Sounds like a game for suckers and I don't want any part of it .
It wasn't that long ago they thought gold ,like krugerrands was the hot deal .A lot of hot air, they just wanted a brokerage fee out of the deal .
If I'm not mistaken good old Ben of kite flying fame once said a fool and his money are soon parted .He also said where there is not good drinking there is also not good living .Now mind you this was at the same time Mr Franklin thought he was a teenager with a twinkle in his eye using his charm on the cute little French ladies  .Ben being Ben but he got his picture on a $100 bill which must say something . ;D

woodroe

Quote from: Al_Smith.So it's simple enough don't buy any lumber

Like
Not from the big retail lumber yards anyway, local mom and pop mills might still be good though.
Skidding firewood with a kubota L3300.

Don P

Quote from: azmtnman on May 15, 2021, 12:33:31 AM
We (me and my board of directors) have been talking about building 3 new cabins. I sent a material list to one of them on March 21. 7/16 OSB was $12.25. We kind of drug our feet so I sent an updated price list on April 21. 7/16 OSB was $43.29!!! A quick glance at my price sheet shows everything else up from 10-15% in that same period of time.
Just checked Lowes again. It's $54.10. That's just ridiculous!

 
4'x8' is 32 bf, fire up the mill and tell Lowe's to pound sand. ;)

dgdrls

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Interesting  explanation from a fiber trader
Stumpage is low and LUMBER futures are high however,  futures have been lowering for the past few days price I found was $1390/1000BF
Big chain Home store has treated 6x6x8's  $48.92/each

should give me some leverage to price my environmentally friendly black Locust a bit higher.

D

rojen

Quote from: mike_belben on May 15, 2021, 02:53:11 AM
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices.  Theyre very temporary.  

Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
Last time we had national price controls was under Republican president Richard Nixon.
I mean, the plumber, electrician, excavator, framer, roofer, and landscapers I'm not hiring to work on my delayed new house build would probably appreciate the government stepping in and stopping commodities brokers (bipartisan campaign financiers) from driving the price of OSB to $60 a sheet, but the "stupid people" in this country don't realize it's actually the space lasers and critical race theory making lumber so high so here we are. 
There was a time when people who traded commodities in high volume had to be able to take delivery of the commodities they traded.  But regulations are bad and Buffy Richington the fourth can push lumber futures to $2000/mbf. 
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining. 
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mike_belben

Bubbles make frenzied mal-investments.  


Those frenzied fools deserve independent liquidations.  Its all fun and games until lowes and home depot get a TBTF bailout.
Praise The Lord

mike_belben

Quote from: rojen on May 15, 2021, 10:05:03 AM
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining.
Yeah, thats me.  You got me all figured out.  Crawl back under whatever socialized rock you came from.
Praise The Lord

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