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Author Topic: Lumber prices too high  (Read 19169 times)

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Online mike_belben

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #360 on: May 15, 2021, 02:53:11 AM »
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices.  Theyre very temporary.  

Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything. 
Psalm 37:16

Offline Ianab

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #361 on: May 15, 2021, 04:30:30 AM »
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices.  Theyre very temporary.  

Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
This is true, but there is the other stupid people that will decide they can get rich on this price bubble. Investing too much, based on the crazy prices. If you do your business plan on $10 boards and the price comes back to $5, people go broke. 
NZ has tried price controls in past, and you are right, they don't work, and have been abandoned as a dumb idea. So, "recover" is possible, but they are a bad idea still. It was a bad political experiment. 
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Online SwampDonkey

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #362 on: May 15, 2021, 04:33:28 AM »
They keep feeding us demand is up with all this COVID money. Well, if you're not working and you're getting that, how are you further ahead? Only way we get that money up here, as a non-business entity, is if not working, kind of unemployment. We don't get a $900 a week cheque from work, plus $2000 a month extra unless you have 4 kids (and you already had that money anyway before COVID). So the math don't work for higher demand unless you guys down south get paid from your employer plus government COVID on top. All construction around here is commercial, so steel not wood. Not a single house being built in my travels. Crabbe's mill yard is stuffed full of wood that has sat for months uncovered and getting a little grey around the edges. Still sawing and kilning. When it gets to a point of no return, they can shove it through the pellet mill. :D

Only the filthy rich are building with $2000/mbf 2 x's and $120 a sheet 1/2" spruce plywood. :D

Somebody is the gate keeper and it ain't the consumer, nor is it the loggers. If it were me I'd shut down logging until I got my share. It's just equipment, so tell the financier to come get it if they want it that bad. :D  

Had a guy suggest you can sell biomass (low quality wood) for $60/cord. I said why would I do that when firewood is $300+ a cord? I wasn't raised a fool. :D
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Offline Al_Smith

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #363 on: May 15, 2021, 04:53:26 AM »
The last time price controls were enacted it didn't work .I doubt seriously if they ever will .It was comical in a way .The controls put on the auto industry didn't control extras such as whitewall tires, air conditioning  etc .All they did was make those standard items  and thus raised the prices .
Controls on wages caught me because I was an apprentice electrician at the time .Two  or three of my periodic increases were stopped and I really could have used the extra money at that time .

The brotherhood of railroad engineers stopped that .It only took a four day strike and they got their raise and soon after there were no more price controls .
Need I remind the boycott dubbed the house wives protest on sugar .It only took two weeks and the bottom fell out of sugar prices .So it's simple enough don't buy any lumber .
The stock market, as I've said is ink on paper or rather a computer file some place .Historically it ebbs and flows but still long term returns about 11 percent .If you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen they say .That in 401K's you're ahead of the game any way ,the money was tax deferred .You have to draw out 4 percent yearly so that  could fluctuate .BTW one of mine this year returned 37 percent and I have 4 of them .For that matter I don't even need them to still live good .If they tanked 40 percent I'm still ahead of the game and they will come back given enough time .I don't lose any sleep over the whole messy situation the world is in. I certainly cannot change it . ---more --- 

Offline Al_Smith

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #364 on: May 15, 2021, 05:00:13 AM »
I won't get into the politics of it but it wasn't that long ago they enacted a 20 dollar surcharge on credit cards .I just fired everyone of them .It wasn't too long they all wanted to be my buddy .If they do it again ,I'll fire them all again ,it's that simple .I've  worked my entire life time for what I've got and I get greatly offended if some body tries to get their hands on my wallet .Actually junk yard dog furious .

Offline jimbarry

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #365 on: May 15, 2021, 05:07:42 AM »
...
Had a guy suggest you can sell biomass (low quality wood) for $60/cord. I said why would I do that when firewood is $300+ a cord? I wasn't raised a fool. :D
Or sell it for kindling at $900 a cord  :D
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Offline Ianab

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #366 on: May 15, 2021, 06:24:17 AM »
The stock market, as I've said is ink on paper or rather a computer file some place .Historically it ebbs and flows but still long term returns about 11 percent .If you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen they say



While it is just numbers on computer screen, the safer investments are actually a "share" in some real assets. You know, a factory, power station, something "real". Something that both generates profit, and gains (or at least retains) value. The more "speculative" shares tend to have less asset backing, and it becomes less clear what you actually own. 


My late Father sold out of a high flying "investment" company before a Stock Market crash, because he realised all the "assets" it held were shares in other "investment" companies. House of cards stuff, there was no "real" assets or profit making business involved. The "profits" they recorded were merely other "house of cards" stocks going up in value.


As you say, if you invest in a "genuine" business, then it's assets should be increasing along with inflation, AND the business is is making a profit to either grow (increase in value) or pay a dividend. That will all go up and down with economic fortunes, but long term a spread portfolio should steadily increase. 
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Offline Ed_K

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #367 on: May 15, 2021, 06:25:04 AM »
 Price of spf 1k on bloomberg dropped to $1435. From a high of $1800.or $1900. a week ago.

Offline Al_Smith

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #368 on: May 15, 2021, 06:50:09 AM »
That's what I don't get about  this underground "bit coin " thing .Sounds like a game for suckers and I don't want any part of it .
It wasn't that long ago they thought gold ,like krugerrands was the hot deal .A lot of hot air, they just wanted a brokerage fee out of the deal .
If I'm not mistaken good old Ben of kite flying fame once said a fool and his money are soon parted .He also said where there is not good drinking there is also not good living .Now mind you this was at the same time Mr Franklin thought he was a teenager with a twinkle in his eye using his charm on the cute little French ladies  .Ben being Ben but he got his picture on a $100 bill which must say something . ;D

Offline woodroe

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #369 on: May 15, 2021, 06:59:23 AM »
Quote from: Al_Smith
.So it's simple enough don't buy any lumber

Like
Not from the big retail lumber yards anyway, local mom and pop mills might still be good though.

Online Don P

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #370 on: May 15, 2021, 08:27:17 AM »
We (me and my board of directors) have been talking about building 3 new cabins. I sent a material list to one of them on March 21. 7/16 OSB was $12.25. We kind of drug our feet so I sent an updated price list on April 21. 7/16 OSB was $43.29!!! A quick glance at my price sheet shows everything else up from 10-15% in that same period of time.
Just checked Lowes again. It's $54.10. That's just ridiculous!

  
4'x8' is 32 bf, fire up the mill and tell Lowe's to pound sand. ;)
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Offline dgdrls

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #371 on: May 15, 2021, 09:19:01 AM »
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Interesting  explanation from a fiber trader
Stumpage is low and LUMBER futures are high however,  futures have been lowering for the past few days price I found was $1390/1000BF
Big chain Home store has treated 6x6x8's  $48.92/each

should give me some leverage to price my environmentally friendly black Locust a bit higher.

D

Offline rojen

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #372 on: May 15, 2021, 10:05:03 AM »
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices.  Theyre very temporary.  

Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
Last time we had national price controls was under Republican president Richard Nixon.
I mean, the plumber, electrician, excavator, framer, roofer, and landscapers I'm not hiring to work on my delayed new house build would probably appreciate the government stepping in and stopping commodities brokers (bipartisan campaign financiers) from driving the price of OSB to $60 a sheet, but the "stupid people" in this country don't realize it's actually the space lasers and critical race theory making lumber so high so here we are. 
There was a time when people who traded commodities in high volume had to be able to take delivery of the commodities they traded.  But regulations are bad and Buffy Richington the fourth can push lumber futures to $2000/mbf. 
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining. 
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Online mike_belben

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #373 on: May 15, 2021, 10:07:31 AM »
Bubbles make frenzied mal-investments.  


Those frenzied fools deserve independent liquidations.  Its all fun and games until lowes and home depot get a TBTF bailout.
Psalm 37:16

Online mike_belben

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #374 on: May 15, 2021, 10:08:18 AM »
 
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining.
Yeah, thats me.  You got me all figured out.  Crawl back under whatever socialized rock you came from.
Psalm 37:16

Offline Al_Smith

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #375 on: May 15, 2021, 02:26:00 PM »
Nearly every commodity given enough time will see a correction .Some will be gleeful some will pull their hair out .
I have enough steel bar joists, I beams, standing seam roofing and siding to erect a 40 by 60 building .I don't have the lumber it will take though for nailers .I can wait it out which it will come down .If not I still have the steel items which are worth something ,probably more than I paid for them .

Offline SPDM

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #376 on: May 15, 2021, 03:00:26 PM »
There was a time when people who traded commodities in high volume had to be able to take delivery of the commodities they traded.  But regulations are bad and Buffy Richington the fourth can push lumber futures to $2000/mbf. 
Last year around May, oil futures went negative. As in, people were so desperate to not have to take delivery of oil that they were paying people to take their oil futures off their hands before the end of the month.

The markets are now primarily a means to an end in-themselves (speculation). And the value "created" by speculators gets to be spread out among the schmucks that actually need the commodity i.e. us. 

Online stavebuyer

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #377 on: May 15, 2021, 07:26:00 PM »
 
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining.
Yeah, thats me.  You got me all figured out.  Crawl back under whatever socialized rock you came from.
Thank you for saying what needing to be said Mr. Belben. 

Offline nativewolf

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #378 on: May 16, 2021, 08:53:19 AM »
There was a time when people who traded commodities in high volume had to be able to take delivery of the commodities they traded.  But regulations are bad and Buffy Richington the fourth can push lumber futures to $2000/mbf.  
Last year around May, oil futures went negative. As in, people were so desperate to not have to take delivery of oil that they were paying people to take their oil futures off their hands before the end of the month.

The markets are now primarily a means to an end in-themselves (speculation). And the value "created" by speculators gets to be spread out among the schmucks that actually need the commodity i.e. us.
Very true we had chinese speculators (that went bellyup) buying all the oil they could saying it was cheaper than water (true also).  Then a group of very savvy english day traders figured out that they could squeeze the oil market on closing day by hammering the delivery price on end of quarter closing.  This was a recognized risk by many large companies but the new money (chinese entity) was not properly hedged and lost everything.  English day traders scored over $600 million that afternoon, very good write ups about that in one of the financial reports (FT, or WSJ or something).  The english day traders were a rough and tumble group of non college educated professional traders, not wall street types at all.  They had a score for the ages.  In the meantime...average joe at the gas pump was getting $1.50 gas and I had 3 offers for off road at less than a dollar a gallon.  No money then and a 2000 gallon double walled fuel tank.  Sigh...  
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Offline Al_Smith

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Re: Lumber prices too high
« Reply #379 on: May 16, 2021, 09:39:18 AM »
I would not have the nerve to be a day trader and for that matter I don't gamble on anything .I have private  investments ,mutual funds and 401 k's plus an inheritance in stocks .I have not touched them ,I don't need them .They are diversified enough if one tanks the  others rise .
Oh the bankers who think they know more than me try their best but it's not  their money it's mine .If I want to bury it in the back yard or stuff it in a mattress  that's my business not theirs .
The nay sayers try to preach doom and gloom which frankly I don't .They can jump out of buildings if they want .I'll just sit on my patio under the hot sun of summer under an umbrella and watch them --of course with a few cold ones to stay hydrated and keep Budweiser in business . ;D


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