Short - term lumber prices, mill damages?

[ellmoe]

   Friday I called the local treating plant (one location of a large company), to check on some lumberd I have in to be treated. To my surprise it was not ready. He explained that they were buried with orders by large companies (read Home Depot, Lowes, etc.) placing orders now fearing an upcoming price increase. He said they were driving him crazy. Additionally, he told me that the pine mills were not quoting prices now. Apparently, the mills all believe that a significant price increase is imminent. Later in the day I spoke with another broker that told me the same thing. I know there will be alot of rebuilding in the future, but this seems to soon for that. Was there much damage to the mills in the Mississippi and surrounding areas? I have not heard mention of this.

Mark

[Frank_Pender]

Mark, you can bet your bottom chip of sawdust that the slightest excuse for increasing prices is the boards at this time.   I can just about predict that some lumber prices will increase at a rate not equil to but close to the fuel prices, with fuel prices being used as the prime justification for an increase both in production and marketing.

[DanG]

Fact is, most of the lumber being imported from europe and S. America entered the country through N.O. and Gulfport.  I heard this on NPR a couple of days ago.

[ellmoe]

   Dang, your right.

Fact is, most of the lumber being imported from europe and S. America entered the country through N.O. and Gulfport. I heard this on NPR a couple of days ago.

I wasn't thinking about the imported lumber. I suspect that the Fla. ports, and the economy here in general will benifit from Katrina's damage. Not only will Tampa , Port Manatee, Jax., and Miami increase there port usage, Orlando will gain in convention and vacation business. On the downside, the farmers up the Mississippi that export their grain, etc. are going to have some problems. Railroads and trucking will increase to move these items to another port, but how much more can they move and at what price? Amazing what some wind and water can do. Of course all of this is of little interest to those directly impacted by the storm.

Mark

[DR Buck]

Mark ...You're dead on about this Mississippi.  Had a friend call from  St Louis the other day.   She said the barges were backed up as far as you can see.   Apparently no place to take them for unloading and shipping since most went to New Orleans in the past.

[Cedarman]

Katrina has put out some big ripples.  It will affect this country in ways unimaginable.  Those that get a jump will prosper, those that make the wrong decision will pay the bill.  For those companies that need employees, there are large numbers of qualified people that need a place to live and work. Great opportunity to help them and help yourself. Just one expample.
I believe there are websites being created to help with this sort of thing.

[ellmoe]

Cedarman,
  I was thinking the same thing. I have a place that I could put a mobile and always can use a good employee. Figured I let things settle a bit and then "look around".

Mark

[Cedarman]

One of the stations on TV was interviewing a mother who was given a room in Montogomery Al.  The lady was so thankful. The people giving the room had a restaurant and said they would hire the lady to do what ever she could.  It was one of the good stories of people helping people.

Once the people are over the shock of this disaster, I believe many will not want to go back.  Most will have some insurance money, most have skills, they will think. "Honey, we can go anywhere we want to go and start a new life, lets think about this opportunity".

[Ron Wenrich]

I did a quick check of the lumber futures market.  There has been a spike in the price of lumber, as expected.  But, the current prices are still lower than what they were in the beginning of July.  As you go out further in time, the spike isn't as dramatic.  Of course, these are wholesale prices for carload lots.  The amount you pay will also have other things tacked onto it, especially a fuel surcharge. 

There are a couple of things that are happening.  On the one hand, you have a recovery operation that is going to need a lot of lumber.  On the other hand, you have people who are leaving the home buying markets because prices are too high.  So, maybe they cancel each other out.  Our hardwood markets have been flat for awhile.  Building seems to be off due to high prices.

European lumber can come through other ports in the Northeast and Canada.  But, you get to a point where those other ports can't handle anymore material.  NO ports won't be up to 100% for quite some time.  Its going to kill a lot of commerce.

[DanG]

Lumber is pretty easy to divert to different ports.  Most any port is equipped to handle stuff like that.  A bigger problem is going to be produce.  We import a lot of fruits and veggies from S. America, and most of it came in through N.O. and Gulfport.  Dole had a huge facility at Gulfport, and it is gone.  This stuff requires special and prompt handling, and will be a lot harder to divert.  Look for higher prices in the supermarket.

[leweee]

Coffee.... the two main roasting & grinding plants were in that area :

[Tom]

Cedarman,
It's amazing how a smile changes the dregs of the disaster to an acceptable situation.  I watched an interview yesterday and the woman was bubbling over with inthusiasm.  She said, "We lost the house, the car, everything we own.  No more bills.  I'm going fishing".  Then she just laughed and so did the others in the picture.   Good humor is contagious, isn't it.  :D

[Cedarman]

Tom, it is so true.  Material possessions are gone and by working hard and moving forward new ones can be acquired.  Or maybe not acquire so many things, but spend time with family and friends and make new ones.  The people that lost everything still have their memories.  That is why it is important to make good ones.

Our minds control how we feel.  Compare the Vietnamese group with some others. It was a mind thing.  When we lose our loved ones, we can dwell on our tragic loss or can think of the good times.  There is the pain, but it helps the healing.

Maybe some of the of the donations could include a bunch of joke books.