To gamble (start in march 2021) or gamble to wait till next year

Sedgehammer · February 25, 2021, 03:41:19 PM

As the heading mentions, many of you know we've been planning on building for a long while now. Will be building a morphydite monitor barn. Metal weld up with residential truss on the center portion and on one side 2x12 rafters or I-joists and on the other side mono truss on metal posts.

Wife wants to build now. I get that, but right now costs are about 40% higher over all. With all the money printing, not sure prices will really come done or at least won't come down all that much.

I wood buy almost all material next week.

What do most of you all think?

Thanks

SwampDonkey · February 25, 2021, 05:21:21 PM

I'm waiting another year myself unless I see prices on 2 x 6" fall this spring, by a lot.

stavebuyer · February 25, 2021, 05:29:16 PM

I think we have seen some currency manipulation and prices probably won't drop back all the way but I also think we have a demand spike that will be corrected. I'd wait but then I am generally wrong lol.

Lostinmn · February 25, 2021, 06:05:30 PM

I have been following this as it relates to stock prices affected by construction costs for my personal investments. Both retail stocks such as home depot and etc, along with real estate etfs and companies dependent (home builders). While there isn't a clear pattern and "expert" opinions are running the gamut, I've seen more consensus leaning towards prices will be lower in the 6 to 12 month range. Due to combination of current rising and likely to continue mortgage interest rates hampering the housing market which as been red hot, and softening (although still very very strong) demand for DYI and remodeling as people are vaccinated and the stay home demand effect is softened over the summer and fall.

Just my inexpert opinion, but if there was not a business loss incurred due to productivity constraints caused by waiting, the wait and see what prices next year looks like a reasonable course of action.

P.S. If you do proceed, double check availability of every needed component, there has been a lot of inventory issues even on what is typically standard or normally easy to stock items. Hate to have something backordered that holds everything else up.

Southside · February 25, 2021, 06:34:06 PM

It's a toss up. If minimum wage jumps to $15 prices are going even higher.

Tom King · February 25, 2021, 08:05:43 PM

If you need it for making money, build it. If you just want it, flip a coin.

Walnut Beast · February 25, 2021, 09:27:48 PM

With as high as construction lumber is now if and when it drops back I don't think it will be as low as we have seen it

Sedgehammer · February 25, 2021, 11:45:26 PM

Thanks everyone.

Prices never going back to what they were save a really bad recession or even maybe a depression. Retailer knows that people will pay a higher price and the big box stores control enough, that they will keep prices artificially high. Plus I think that with all the printing going on, that half of the price increases will stay no matter what.

There's also the possibility that inflation runs out of control or stays high due to all the printing. This is the one that worries me.

Wife wants her new house, so the barn must be built first. That will be our temporary living arrangements while the house gets built. When i say temporary, prolly five years as house being built without debt. We don't/won't carry any mortgage debt. I haven't mentioned anything to her yet. Maybe over the weekend.

low_48 · February 26, 2021, 01:00:49 AM

With the millions and millions of homes damaged in Texas, prices won't change for a long time. There will have to be shortages of plumbing supplies based on what I saw on TV.

Sedgehammer · February 26, 2021, 06:52:36 AM

Anyone know what the fall hurricane season will be........

Nebraska · February 26, 2021, 07:26:24 AM

say_what ....... I'm starting to lean towards holding your nose and taking a leap. Just get her done and get your cheap interest tied up. If the price of steel goes down the price of the folks welding will go up. If they can hire anybody to burn rods.

Sedgehammer · February 26, 2021, 08:20:27 AM

Quote from: Nebraska on February 26, 2021, 07:26:24 AM
say_what ....... I'm starting to lean towards holding your nose and taking a leap. Just get her done and get your cheap interest tied up. If the price of steel goes down the price of the folks welding will go up. If they can hire anybody to burn rods.

Building with cash. No debt. If borrowing, yes I agree 100%.

I do kinda want to just get it going and get it done. but then if that way, do I buy everything next week or as needed?

I did just talk to her while she was laying bed before getting ready for work and she is open to whatever I decide........ Thanks babes......I'm digging a hole

SwampDonkey · February 26, 2021, 08:55:55 AM

7/16" OSB went from $12 a sheet to $42, not paying those prices.

She'll come down, and come down hard. Won't be enough money to keep up with the payments. ;D

Southside · February 26, 2021, 08:56:32 AM

Well your cash purchasing power is decreasing the same way your interest would cost you more money on a note. Here the legislature just passed a 5% pay raise for teachers and all state employees, costs are not coming down.

Sedgehammer · February 26, 2021, 09:23:53 AM

You 2 @SwampDonkey @Southside need together and work an agreement which direction it's going to..... teeter_totter

firefighter ontheside · February 26, 2021, 09:33:18 AM

If my wife said do it now, I would just do it now. I'm often wanting to spend money that she doesn't, but when its her idea, she has usually evaluated what we have in the bank and calculated that now is the right time. She is usually right.

SwampDonkey · February 26, 2021, 09:54:14 AM

If you pull the trigger, hope the material supply is available, be nice to have it closed in. ;D

I never based anything on government job salaries, when everyone else has never had a decent raise in 30 years. ;D Local welders were getting $12-18/hr 30 years ago, still are. Minimum wage is far below the pulpmill, welder, saw mill workers, carpenter, trucker and steel work wage in this country. :D :D Carpenters here don't quote less than $40/hr a head. Minimum wage is service industry stuff. ;D That's why a $650,000 house in Ontario I can buy for $180,000 in NB. ;D

Sedgehammer · February 26, 2021, 09:55:11 AM

Quote from: firefighter ontheside on February 26, 2021, 09:33:18 AM
If my wife said do it now, I would just do it now. I'm often wanting to spend money that she doesn't, but when its her idea, she has usually evaluated what we have in the bank and calculated that now is the right time. She is usually right.

I must be married to your wife's older sister. She's that x2. Trouble is she kinda left it up to me as of this mornin, but she did say to wait until the engineer was done and then add up the shell costs.

hedgerow · February 26, 2021, 10:15:16 AM

I am from the school if your ready to do a project just do it. I have lived threw high interest, high cost of goods and never found waiting to work out in my favor. Two years ago almost three I had a chance to buy the farm next to my home place. Because of health things going on wasn't in the mood to be buying a farm. I was only going to have one chance and not much time to think about it. Got the price were we were both pretty happy and bought it. Like my tax guy said you didn't need another farm but why let someone else buy it and develop it. If it gets developed it just as well be you doing the developing and profiting from it. You have to decide your comfort level. Got a good friend that has farmed his whole life and only has the 80 his grandpa give him. Like he always has said for the last forty years land is too high, interest too high I will just wait for a better time. No time is better than now.

Sedgehammer · February 26, 2021, 10:19:11 AM

Quote from: hedgerow on February 26, 2021, 10:15:16 AM
I am from the school if your ready to do a project just do it. I have lived threw high interest, high cost of goods and never found waiting to work out in my favor. Two years ago almost three I had a chance to buy the farm next to my home place. Because of health things going on wasn't in the mood to be buying a farm. I was only going to have one chance and not much time to think about it. Got the price were we were both pretty happy and bought it. Like my tax guy said you didn't need another farm but why let someone else buy it and develop it. If it gets developed it just as well be you doing the developing and profiting from it. You have to decide your comfort level. Got a good friend that has farmed his whole life and only has the 80 his grandpa give him. Like he always has said for the last forty years land is too high, interest too high I will just wait for a better time. No time is better than now.

all solid points

I'm from that school, my wife is from the waiting school

SwampDonkey · February 26, 2021, 10:24:13 AM

When your building on your land, you have no pressure like you do competing for land purchase. You can wait it out a year or two and your land is still yours. Wait on buying that farm and you might be looking someplace else. That's the car salesman tactic, pressure to buy instead of dicker. ;D Two different things. There is just no way the pricing on material is sustainable. I've seen it come tumbling many times. ;D Some people have short memory. You're gonna work long and hard for my cash. :D

stavebuyer · February 26, 2021, 12:54:31 PM

Tip-toeing around the politics we just changed from pro-oil to anti-oil. Gasoline prices are climbing and so will electric rates. I expect taxes also to increase. The Covid money will soon be spent. I see less discretionary dollars to chase after 2x4s in the not so distant future.

Lumber prices will come down from the panic levels we currently see. Too much room for them to be under-cut not to. If not with the amount of projects you have ahead of you; you could justify a mill, planer and a kiln!

Sedgehammer · February 26, 2021, 10:11:51 PM

Quote from: stavebuyer on February 26, 2021, 12:54:31 PM
Tip-toeing around the politics we just changed from pro-oil to anti-oil. Gasoline prices are climbing and so will electric rates. I expect taxes also to increase. The Covid money will soon be spent. I see less discretionary dollars to chase after 2x4s in the not so distant future.

Lumber prices will come down from the panic levels we currently see. Too much room for them to be under-cut not to. If not with the amount of projects you have ahead of you; you could justify a mill, planer and a kiln!

I wood tend to agree if we weren't on the verge of MMT. They will print everyone free money (UBI) and all will be well. Inflation is already on the rise even if they aren't claiming it isn't. It's a conundrum. Normal or past history most likely will not play true here. In the end though, it will, but that end isn't a good one.

Cedarman · February 27, 2021, 07:11:55 AM

Ages ago when Ross Perot was running for president, he would say "Just do it". I was on the borderline of building a mill, buying several hundred thousand dollars of mill equipment and also building a house. Going 1/2 million in debt. I had put it off for several years waiting for the right time. Ross gave me the incentive to dive in. It was nerve wracking for many years. Still buying stuff. Should be out of debt in 3 months. What I did is not for everybody. If I had not listened to Ross, I would not have what I have today.
(The other day my little granddaughter asked me to sound like a frog. I asked her why. She said her mom told that when I croaked we would get all your money)

Watch the lumber trends, see what it does for a few months. If no change, make the decision to wait more or dive in.
The worst that happens is that you will have spent more money than if you waited. If you can afford that money, then you have your answer. If you dive in and prices go down, do not grieve over it.

Southside · February 27, 2021, 07:54:34 AM

Ahh - little kids and their honesty - getting parents in trouble since....

Sedgehammer · February 27, 2021, 08:45:52 AM

Quote from: Cedarman on February 27, 2021, 07:11:55 AM
Ages ago when Ross Perot was running for president, he would say "Just do it". I was on the borderline of building a mill, buying several hundred thousand dollars of mill equipment and also building a house. Going 1/2 million in debt. I had put it off for several years waiting for the right time. Ross gave me the incentive to dive in. It was nerve wracking for many years. Still buying stuff. Should be out of debt in 3 months. What I did is not for everybody. If I had not listened to Ross, I would not have what I have today.
(The other day my little granddaughter asked me to sound like a frog. I asked her why. She said her mom told that when I croaked we would get all your money)

Watch the lumber trends, see what it does for a few months. If no change, make the decision to wait more or dive in.
The worst that happens is that you will have spent more money than if you waited. If you can afford that money, then you have your answer. If you dive in and prices go down, do not grieve over it.

Thanks for the reply!

I don't really have an issue with debt that makes one money. I do have an issue with mortgage debt, especially in these times. I had built a half a million dollar home back in 98. Almost lost it. Not again.

Lil kids and their honesty..... that's sad, but you know your kids. As of right now, 2 of mine won't get a thing and I sleep well at night with that.

If I jump, I have a thought to buy everything at once, so I have it. I could though buy the metal posts, weld that up, as that will take a while, then it could even sit if need be. Still waiting on the engineer on exactly what is needed. Then I'll send that out for quotes.

farmfromkansas · February 28, 2021, 11:49:32 AM

Things could change quickly if the stock market continues to go down. Friday the dow dropped by 4 hundred something, and the grain markets and cattle dropped as well. Expect all the markets would follow, as that is the way it works. And a stock market crash is over due. Having money and being in the market when everyone else is running away is being in the right place at the right time.

SwampDonkey · February 28, 2021, 04:42:37 PM

Buy low and sell high is where the money is. ;D

Hilltop366 · February 28, 2021, 07:45:05 PM

One thing that I think has been the biggest contributor to the high material prices is covid, people working from home has freed up time and people not traveling/vacationing has freed up money so might as well stay home and do some renovations combine that with supply interruptions and companies willing to charge all the public are willing to pay.

When (or if) the public are not willing to pay and the supply improves the prices should fall.

Southside · February 28, 2021, 09:10:24 PM

Now would be a good time to build a SYP mega mill, automated, chip-n-saw. Don't have to worry about increasing log prices due to the supply side, but the downside will be energy. Costs, carbon penalty issues, etc. I don't think you will see many breaking ground of that caliber until some of those issues find a direction.