Lumber price predictions?

[gspren]

 Over the next 4 months do you predict lumber prices to stay high, get higher or start to go back down? I will need to get a pole building put up in a few months but can't proceed until settlement on the new property probably about June 1st, but then won't want to delay very long. 

[Southside]

Next 4 months folks are getting another stimulus check, more benefits, and then tax return money. Lumber isn't dropping during that time frame. Who knows what a year from now will bring. 

[mike_belben]

Agreed.  The next stimulus will print even more money. The retailers will simply demand more of it for their wares.

Its more like asking will the dollar strengthen.  Well...  It really cant unless they take a bunch out of circulation.  Has that ever happened?  My memory doesnt go back to pre-1911.

[21incher]

It's most likely  going  to rise. I just watched a video about trucking costs. They talked about loads are now being  quoted at $4.50 a mile due to driver shortages and rising  fuel costs. Almost doubled in the last few months from around$2.50 for major grocery chains. They are predicting over $8.00 a mile by mid summer with  food prices and everything  else going up from shipping  charges passing along. Apparently many driver training schools have been shut from Covid and those still operating have greatly  reduced  class numbers. Another issue  is the extra unemployment payments bring benefits higher then many starting  drivers make. Then there is a problem with many drivers failing  the drug testing that includes  marijuana screening for the CDL.  This is not something  that is going  to go away in 6 months and increased transportation charges will definitely be passed on to consumers.  

[mike_belben]

Its alarmism.  Sells papers, gets hits that generate ad revenue, helps keep a crisis alive that shoulda never been.  

Sign up for DAT and youll see spot rates arent so bad yet.  The high fuel will bankrupt the first round of debt riddled hand to mouth owner ops but theyll be quickly replaced.  

At $8/mile the number of trucks on the road would double instantly.  It wont happen.  The same story was pushed hard in 2018 and 250K new MC #s were issued to all sort of paper chasers, leading to the over capacity that pushed me out of the truck in may 2020 over horrible rates.  Stuff was moving at $1 mile and it cost $1.50/mi avg to run a truck. 

[snowstorm]

It's most likely  going  to rise. I just watched a video about trucking costs. They talked about loads are now being  quoted at $4.50 a mile due to driver shortages and rising  fuel costs. Almost doubled in the last few months from around$2.50 for major grocery chains. They are predicting over $8.00 a mile by mid summer with  food prices and everything  else going up from shipping  charges passing along. Apparently many driver training schools have been shut from Covid and those still operating have greatly  reduced  class numbers. Another issue  is the extra unemployment payments bring benefits higher then many starting  drivers make. Then there is a problem with many drivers failing  the drug testing that includes  marijuana screening for the CDL.  This is not something  that is going  to go away in 6 months and increased transportation charges will definitely be passed on to consumers.  

after doing a little looking into to this you are right. already seeing flatbed in some cases at 6 bucks a mile. mike can say its wrong all he wants but i have inside imfo

[Tacotodd]

I'm not, and never will be, a trucker. But I'd not doubt Mike a single bit on this. He's makes to much good sense about every other thing I've seen him comment about.

[moodnacreek]

Common lumber and milk are easily over produced in north America. The soil, the climate and the machinery are always waiting to do more. There are men who where born to do this always wanting to do more. So at some point the cost of these items will drop dead.

[Southside]

To the producer the price of milk is and has been dead for years.  It's only the mega players or niche market that survive.  

[snowstorm]

I'm not, and never will be, a trucker. But I'd not doubt Mike a single bit on this. He's makes to much good sense about every other thing I've seen him comment about.

the cfo for the largest trucking co in this state is sitting rite here. if she says 6 bucks a mile for some flatbed freight she knows what it pays. thats why she bought several new trailers last week. the price we pay for everything is going up 

[Walnut Beast]

To the producer the price of milk is and has been dead for years.  It's only the mega players or niche market that survive.  

That's pretty sad about a lot of them family operations. Then they got to compete with almond milk

[Walnut Beast]

I'm not, and never will be, a trucker. But I'd not doubt Mike a single bit on this. He's makes to much good sense about every other thing I've seen him comment about.

the cfo for the largest trucking co in this state is sitting rite here. if she says 6 bucks a mile for some flatbed freight she knows what it pays. thats why she bought several new trailers last week. the price we pay for everything is going up

The minimum the hot shot guys are charging is 1.75 per mile 

[21incher]

Right now most trucking  companies have at least 25% of their trucks sitting in the yard due to lack of drivers. The corporate profits  can't  drop this year so pricing must rise. Another  issue  supposedly  is the government  is starting  to use quite a few trucks for vaccine and ppe equipment distribution pulling  them from retail distribution service . Plus there will be demand for moving oil in the future that will remain with pipe lines being  shut  down. There  may be some great opportunities for small guys  in the near future until driverless trucks start to roll out.

[Skip]

IMHO having run the road for a number of years it's NOT a driver shortage, it's a driver PAY shortage .

[nativewolf]

IMHO having run the road for a number of years it's NOT a driver shortage, it's a driver PAY shortage .

And the Fed agrees with you

[nativewolf]

It's most likely  going  to rise. I just watched a video about trucking costs. They talked about loads are now being  quoted at $4.50 a mile due to driver shortages and rising  fuel costs. Almost doubled in the last few months from around$2.50 for major grocery chains. They are predicting over $8.00 a mile by mid summer with  food prices and everything  else going up from shipping  charges passing along. Apparently many driver training schools have been shut from Covid and those still operating have greatly  reduced  class numbers. Another issue  is the extra unemployment payments bring benefits higher then many starting  drivers make. Then there is a problem with many drivers failing  the drug testing that includes  marijuana screening for the CDL.  This is not something  that is going  to go away in 6 months and increased transportation charges will definitely be passed on to consumers.  

after doing a little looking into to this you are right. already seeing flatbed in some cases at 6 bucks a mile. mike can say its wrong all he wants but i have inside imfo

I'm paying $5/mile and thrilled to get it.  Thrilled.  I just want a truck, inflation be darned I just want trucking, I'd pay $6.
My veneer buyers say find trucking, they are tapped out and want to buy logs but can't get trucks either.  

Covid took several truck drivers off the market in WV.  Lots of older guys just hanging it up.  If the rates can make it to the drivers I'll be happy.

[nativewolf]

Over the next 4 months do you predict lumber prices to stay high, get higher or start to go back down? I will need to get a pole building put up in a few months but can't proceed until settlement on the new property probably about June 1st, but then won't want to delay very long.

If an ag building can you use unstamped lumber?  If so, this may be a rare time when it is cheaper to have it sawn for you.  

[Ron Wenrich]

I follow the lumber futures market.  It seems to have peaked, and the new contracts are about 10% lower, and falling.  That seems to indicate a supply market problem in the short term.  Better logging conditions will probably help the supply side.

Drivers for the futures market increase was the low interest rates, especially on mortgages.  Interest rates are rising, and that will probably lower new home building demand.  It doesn't mean it won't be strong, just that some of the pressure is off.  

Market conditions can change quickly if there are some major natural disasters like tornadoes, hurricanes, and the like.  They put on an unexpected market demand.

[hedgerow]

Over the next 4 months do you predict lumber prices to stay high, get higher or start to go back down? I will need to get a pole building put up in a few months but can't proceed until settlement on the new property probably about June 1st, but then won't want to delay very long.

I ran into a pole shed builder at the fuel stop last week that has done work for my in the past and he said they are booked up until next winter on sheds. The up tick in lumber prices hasn't slowed any thing up and the up tick in grain prices has the farmers putting up pole sheds again. He said they had been doing a lot of acreage and commercial buildings the last five years. He runs three crews year around.  

[mike_belben]

the cfo for the largest trucking co in this state is sitting rite here. if she says 6 bucks a mile for some flatbed freight she knows what it pays.

Well ol buddy since you thought enough to summons me by name, i'll play but only to irk you. And ill make it extra long on purpose too.   ;)

She knows how HIGH she can get from some shippers, zero dispute from me there.  

Now call a bottom feeder broker when you want to find out how LOW others will simultaneously haul it. Theres always a pretty big window.  If you want i will ask a few and record it on speaker phone so we can find out together what ends up happening.  We're just casting future bets right?  



"Some flatbed freight" is not the same as all freight.  $4.50 a mile is astronomical for cross country dryvan and dirt cheap for a lowboy local move.  House movers can be hundred$ per mile.  Short jobsite drops in metro atlanta might be cheap at $10.  Theyre all different.


Will flatbed aircraft engines hit $6 or $8mile longhaul for a while?  Probably.  Raytheon is gonna pony up to top haulers demands because precious cargo gets precious insurance at precious rates.  And because guess what.. Slob flatbeds dont carry 1million cargo coverage, they carry 100k so prime cargo doesnt go on pith poor carrier decks.  Triangle brick, hardie board, Canfor and Redimix are not gonna ever dream of coming up to what an engine or lowboy equipment hauler's rate is.  The commodity product will sit and sit and sit until lowes comes up $50 stinkin bucks on the rate and western express nabs a contract.   Its sorta like oil.  When prices rise big shippers are seeking reliable guaranteed future contract haul rates and mega dirtball carriers are taking those covetted reliable contracts to the bank for big credit lines to go to the dealer for a new terminal (to relay the load to a 2nd driver on a fresh ELD clock) and or new trucks to service the contract.


When rates plummet the big shipper is paying a premium to stay in that now expensive contract, so they want to come out of it and go to the now cheaper spot market.. Meaning 1 time haul contracts made minute to minute with strangers who carry standard licenses and insurance. I loved the 40 phonecall truck stop wrestling match to book the best load i could within an hour or two.  Its an adventure to be like will i sleep in NJ or arkansas tonight? Who wants to pay me the most for their stupid crisis?



Will brick block and lumber hit $6 or 8 for more than a blip of time? In my opinion No.. Not for any extended time average. Its rarely an emergency outside of weather events.   jb hunt swift schneider saia werner western express and every other mega with an inhouse CDL mill parks their 2 or $3/mi dryvans and reefers to run flats if legal load commodity flatbed freight price spikes.  They generally dont do specialty flatbed or it ends in disaster when they try because good flatbedders just dont work for low level megas and low level drivers cant seem to keep specialty cargo oit of the ditch.  Megas have a low reputation and very hard times recruiting better than low employees.  Their debt based operations dont have the margins to pay well.  They never pay well. Good people never stay with them, its embarassing to a driver. Severe truckstop/CB shame comes with a swift logo on your door. Theyre ostracized.  Non english speakers arent bothered because they dont have CBs.  They dont know there are 15 people on the radio joking about their parking fails struggles every single night.  Sounds silly but this is all a factor in what megas haul.


If the spot price keeps going higher on legal, easy commodity flat loads the megas will just recruit more immigrants for a 3 week school and send them out in flatbed divisionswith a trainer who speaks englais.  Lease-on dryvan and reefer outfits will start owner op flatbed division leases like what mercer, bennet and tennessee steel haulers do for instance.  


Wherever the money spikes the trucks will follow, always.  Would you loggers not switch from pulp to tie if the money spiked?  Would you sawyers not switch from batten to framing lumber if the money spiked?  Theyre just spikes.



This is cyclical by price and has already happened many times, its not new at all. Its a repeat with numbers adjusted for inflation.  When the economy tanks the war of attrition from the sudden overcapacity in any boom bust industry begins.  2016 thru 2020 was one full cycle in trucking.  The $5 diesel years were another. Boom bust boom bust.



When the common person hears "trucking" they dont realize there are like 20 subclasses that fall under "trucking" all with different and changing rates that dont affect the other classes much until extremes.  

Wyatt needs special guys.  Interstate spread axle flatbeds with air scales that can pull 48k, have a mountain of pipe stakes, will drive off tarmac onto a matt road and will run a fairly short regional haul to the mill but not short enough to be home in bed every night like a daycabber.  then come back asap for another load, probably empty.  That is very rare in flatbeds. Its gonna probably cost him to hire the truck both directions.. Or to wait around on weather.  You cant just grab any old loadboard truck as wyatt will tell you.. They show up without the gear.  When you find a competent carrier you gotta pay enough to keep them coming back.  He has to offer big bait money to get his fish.  Ask him how rare pipestakes are. Ask him how much these simple pieces of C channel with stoppers welded on cost or how many drivers cant handle his site.


Amazon drop and hook power only with a condo volvo, where gps/qualcomm tells the non english speaking team drivers everything, coast to coast at terminals what space to drop and what trailer number to hook, what dock door to bump.. Totally different thing.  The operators are 3rd world dime a dozen and have no impact on wyatts cost at all.  A hundred thousand of those teams dont affect his rates.  But they change amazon drop and hook tremendously.  So do you see the insulation that exists all within trucking by trailer and cargo type?


"Some flatbed" includes RGN, stretch flats, connestogas, overdimension and multi-axle permit stuff.  $10 a mile isnt new territory for them at all so to make articles about omg $8 a mile! Is just alarmism.  I booked a low $7/mile to move a 8ft tarped load of keep dry maple from TN to KY on a friday off DAT.. Completely public with a broker cut ontop of that.  Its just supply, demand, desperation and timing. I missed an $11/mile lumber move from TN to nantahala nf region that same month.. It was a break the law and do the impossible to keep my customer from dropping me job that i only lost because it became completely impossible to do in the time window remaining.  6 months later i was coming out of florida for $1.30 tarped.  3 weeks later i was coming out of florida empty and couldnt even find a load in savannah or valdosta for a buck.  Boom bust guys. Rapid change.


If standard sticks and bricks flatbed hits $4.50 a mile 3 new megas will be born to get after it and drag it back to $3 within a year.  Boom bust. Not sustained.  Just wait it out.

[mike_belben]

I'm not, and never will be, a trucker. But I'd not doubt Mike a single bit on this. He's makes to much good sense about every other thing I've seen him comment about.

Its okay.. Its not about right or wrong.. Trucking has a lot of segments that defy any blanket statement. 
 Snowstorm has just stayed pithy with me about a 13speed ratio dispute we had when i first started.  Its okay, i like him and slightly enjoy how much i still get under his skin.  Id like to buy him a moxie one day just to rib him a little extra.  
;D

[21incher]

The price info I saw was provided by a buyer at a major retail grocery chain using the same trucking companies they have for years. The store will not absorb the increase cost so it will be passed on to consumers.
There also are stimulus checks valued at up to $14,500.00 per family depending on number of dependents and household income starting to go out this weekend that will fund many projects adding to the demand for lumber in the next couple months. One way to save a little is find a store like Lowes that offers discounts for using their credit cards and one for veterans.

[mike_belben]

The price info I saw was provided by a buyer at a major retail grocery chain using the same trucking companies they have for years. The store will not absorb the increase cost so it will be passed on to consumers.

I cant remember who said it recently but that can be explained by price setters vs price takers.  Lowes is a price setter and credit extender.  Theyre gonna get what they say theyre gonna get.



You wanna know a flatbed trucking secret?  During very high fuel is the best time to be a stable owner op because theres money everywhere, loads everywhere and fewer carriers to bid them down.  Why are truck rates climbing?  Because fuel costs are.  High fuel only comes with high economy.  The higher the fuel gets the more the domestic oil producers are ordering every single thing under the sun that goes on a flatbed. 


The shipper during high fuel times pays all fuel in a fuel surcharge or FSC.. PLUS the linehaul rate which is ALWAYS very good with high fuel.  Why?  Because high fuel requires having big cash or credit reserves to stay operating.  300gallons a day at $4 wipes out all the marginal carriers in a month. Now the only guys running are the ones who have their money right.  


An operator who is maxed out on credit cards and overdue on his fuel cards gets shut off by pilot, loves, sheetz, liberty, petro.. Okay so now hes gotta buy even more expensive fuel at one off little independant truck diesel spots.. In cash.  So he can only haul loads from brokers who will offer cash advance.  Cash advances means lower rate on the haul.  One breakdown and this guy misses the truck payment.. has the repo man block him at the pilot and hes out .. Seen tons of this in 2020. That guy is a price taker. 


The dude i drove for sat on 100k all the time.  He doesnt need cash flow.  He sets a rate and holds to it.  If no one will meet his rate we take the week off. If a driver is gonna quit that he wants to keep, he will just cash advance him out of pocket to stay.  


Debt makes you a price taker.  Cash savings makes you a price setter.  Peak fuel is excellent for price setter owner ops.  There is no higher on the hog time be running a truck.  Post your empty truck on the board and name your price.  The calls wont stop. 


When the pendulum swings other way, park the truck.  Thats how the badash owner ops do it and always seem to be winning. Its fiscal management.. Never letting 'pent up demand' control their emotions.  

[stavebuyer]

Independent Stave and Brown-Forman sucked up most of the OTR veneer log haulers several years ago. 7/24/365 dedicated hauls at whatever they needed to pay to get the trucks.

[Sedgehammer]

IMHO having run the road for a number of years it's NOT a driver shortage, it's a driver PAY shortage .

Spot, spot, spot!!!

I remember when I was working in the patch we had to take a driving course even if we had a cdl before we could drive. Anyways, towards the end the class the course operators had some trucking firms come in to for those that weren't patch drivers. They got up front and told everyone how great of a company they were and there was a great opportunity to come drive for them. So I asked what the pay was. He said it was so much a mile and then I said that's about $44k a year. He said yes and that was a good living. I tried to hold my sarcasm down as I said I didn't know getting home late on every other Friday and leaving early on Sunday to spend time with ones family and earning $44k was a good living, then I was working for the wrong company. Some in the class chuckled. I don't think he got it.

I could never do that. My brother once was gone from home for 5 months. No thanks. I like my wife and kids, but one has to do what one has to do at times.