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couple pics... post what your currently cutting

Started by RunningRoot, January 27, 2015, 08:41:27 PM

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quilbilly

Quote from: nativewolf on March 25, 2020, 06:48:54 PM
Quote from: quilbilly on March 25, 2020, 04:00:07 PM
As someone who lives in a tourist area, tourism was the worst possible thing to happen for the timber industry. We became Seattle's weekend playground and soon thereafter the wilderness acts came about locking up 80,000 acres of NF, then spotted owl which shut down ONF for 2 year's and no clear-cuts since really, and now another 100,000 acre wilderness bill up for vote. Then people take pics and share on social media with words like primordial Grove, ancient forest, and they're just looking at big second growth half the time.

I hope they open up business but limit vacations. Help contain the spread while keeping most businesses going. It will hurt the service sector, but they're getting killed right now anyway.
With stumpage and log prices so low the more they restrict the better, help move log prices up.  Actually I'm kind of surprised anyone on the west coast would want to see more supply hitting the market..it would kill log prices I'd think.  But maybe our revenue models are different and your just getting paid on production?  We are paid on revenue sharing, so the more supply restrictions the higher the revenue and then it is a race for good supply and that's better for us.
We get paid on production, our issue is lack of Mills and supply for them. For example the beaver Mill that was owned by interfor shut down due to lack of supply, the state had promised X amount per year to supply the mill, interfor promised to supply X amount of jobs, state couldn't hold up their end due to litigation. Most Mills here that shut down did so due to lack of supply not an oversaturated market. The Mills that are shutting people off right now is BC of too much wood. We need more mills but without the biggest landowner, the feds, providing a constant supply nobody puts them in. Too much ebb and flow. There used to be gobs of mills and log dumps out here. 
BTW all the Mills with oversupply are 1+ hours away. There are only two mills on the north Olympic peninsula.
a man is strongest on his knees

nativewolf

I guess I don't quite get the mills situation...too much in BC...not enough in Olympic; crazy world.  Heck I ship logs 6 hours away quite frequently.  For the pics you were showing earlier I think shipping wouldn't matter too much.  In fact I don't have a good buyer within 100 miles...some log yards, some small mills but the premium buyers are a long way away and the low end buyers are quite a ways.  Our bridge timber logs (about as low as I want to cut) go 110 miles, about 2 hours.  Our Tie logs only go 60 miles and we only cut them to cleanup the sites.  
Liking Walnut

quilbilly

Your prices are much higher. For folks in Port Angeles to ship cns is 2 hours to the nearest mill. The whole load might be worth $1200 after trucking $850 maybe. 

The mills thing is hand in hand with supply. They won't implement the northwest forest plan from the early 90's so there is limited supply, which leads to fewer mills, which means less competition, which means lower prices for stumpage which has been used as an excuse by enviros to cancel all timber sales since they don't bring in money. 

Those poles we went out, nearest yard was 2.5 have hours from the job with only two potential buyers to bid on wood. One has 2 months supply right now and no room in their yard.  They are however having a heck of a time getting longer poles with the short rotations on private ground. State and national Forest have tons of them though, if they ever get put up for sale. 
a man is strongest on his knees

Skeans1

@nativewolf 
It's a completely different world out here, the farthest we've hauled was to Madras before it shut down and that was a 4+ hour haul one way. Trucking out here is a killer if the truck isn't making a minimum of say 90+ an hour you will see them sit depending on the region. Another issue is when some of the big boys get cranked up they'll flood the mills the mills will shut them off as well as possibly everyone else. We use to have 10 in our little area now we're down to 5 including the pulp yard most due to buy outs and then the new owners shutting down the mills to drive competition out of their business, same with land owners there use to be a couple of larger owners here in this area now it's all one running the same colors we all know so well.

Skeans1

@quilbilly 
What's long poles? Last time we had a buyer out looking for some we got told our stuff was too big for the dimensions they want now.

quilbilly

Quote from: Skeans1 on March 25, 2020, 07:38:40 PM
@quilbilly
What's long poles? Last time we had a buyer out looking for some we got told our stuff was too big for the dimensions they want now.
For our area 65+. They have pretty much cut off 35+40. Will only take a 45 if you've got longer to go with it. Our guy will take 125+ I think. We have an issue with too much height. We are sometimes having the issue of not a large enough butt. We made a 105' pole today. It will get deducted but if I cut it back it would be too big on topf the small butt size. 
a man is strongest on his knees

Skeans1

@quilbilly 
We use to do the 125' to 175' for the yard in Rochester years ago, last time they came down they said the height and top was their but the butt diameter is way too large anymore.

nativewolf

Yeah for that low value material the price is not much different here, if anything lower.  Those poles though...whew..I'd think they would bring more than they did.  Just amazing stuff.  What do they use them for?  Ship channel markers?  Or ?  I can't see them being used for terrestrial stuff so I am guessing marine applications.  

Re supply and demand I just don't see how more supply can help out in a world where relatively close by mills are over capacity and restricting purchases.  Lumber is all going to the same folks so a mill within a few hours of seattle is selling lumber to seattle (as an example).  They don't really care.

@skeans1- yes the consolidation among the REITs has been interesting.  I knew Matt Donegan when he was just getting going at US Forest Capital.  We only dreamed of consolidating timberland the way the big W has done.  They played their hand pretty well.  Tough on the loggers.  Matt did ok for himself too, email was just getting going back then and I lost touch.  At some point W becomes a victim of a raider and it all gets broken up all over again.  Just wait a decade or so.  
Liking Walnut

quilbilly

Not here, before export restrictions we had a massive export market. Being next to one of the largest ports on the west coast and close to China, relatively, we ship a ton of wood that way. The local mill prices for us are driven by the export market, when it goes up so do local mills. The only thing here that really stays local is cns stuff. We get and ship lumber to Canada and around the world. 

Skeans we need to mix wood, your butt size is too big, ours is too small. We are also shipping to Rochester. 

Native wolf, the Rochester pole yard is owned by Stella Jones, they used to have three and consolidated all down to one. They bought out McFarland Cascade. Another example of how there used to be competition out here for wood that just doesn't exist anymore. Also our trucks are more expensive than skeans. They're all looking for $100 an hour minimum and will sit if they don't get it. 
a man is strongest on his knees

nativewolf

What do they do with these long long poles?  
Liking Walnut

Skeans1

Quote from: nativewolf on March 25, 2020, 08:14:37 PM
Yeah for that low value material the price is not much different here, if anything lower.  Those poles though...whew..I'd think they would bring more than they did.  Just amazing stuff.  What do they use them for?  Ship channel markers?  Or ?  I can't see them being used for terrestrial stuff so I am guessing marine applications.  

Re supply and demand I just don't see how more supply can help out in a world where relatively close by mills are over capacity and restricting purchases.  Lumber is all going to the same folks so a mill within a few hours of seattle is selling lumber to seattle (as an example).  They don't really care.

@skeans1- yes the consolidation among the REITs has been interesting.  I knew Matt Donegan when he was just getting going at US Forest Capital.  We only dreamed of consolidating timberland the way the big W has done.  They played their hand pretty well.  Tough on the loggers.  Matt did ok for himself too, email was just getting going back then and I lost touch.  At some point W becomes a victim of a raider and it all gets broken up all over again.  Just wait a decade or so.  
REITs has been one of the worst thing that has ever happened to the forestry industry it's all about the turn around for as cheap as possible vs good forestry. When you run a Doug fir rotation of 40 years you loose a ton of value as well as it causes more disease to start running wild faster.

Skeans1

Quote from: nativewolf on March 25, 2020, 08:27:54 PM
What do they do with these long long poles?  
I've done special order sailing masts for ship restorations in Aberdeen, done a lot of fender/bumper logs, special utility poles north of the 125' length is still very common and required in many states.

quilbilly

Quote from: Skeans1 on March 25, 2020, 08:35:34 PM
Quote from: nativewolf on March 25, 2020, 08:14:37 PM
Yeah for that low value material the price is not much different here, if anything lower.  Those poles though...whew..I'd think they would bring more than they did.  Just amazing stuff.  What do they use them for?  Ship channel markers?  Or ?  I can't see them being used for terrestrial stuff so I am guessing marine applications.  

Re supply and demand I just don't see how more supply can help out in a world where relatively close by mills are over capacity and restricting purchases.  Lumber is all going to the same folks so a mill within a few hours of seattle is selling lumber to seattle (as an example).  They don't really care.

@skeans1- yes the consolidation among the REITs has been interesting.  I knew Matt Donegan when he was just getting going at US Forest Capital.  We only dreamed of consolidating timberland the way the big W has done.  They played their hand pretty well.  Tough on the loggers.  Matt did ok for himself too, email was just getting going back then and I lost touch.  At some point W becomes a victim of a raider and it all gets broken up all over again.  Just wait a decade or so.  
REITs has been one of the worst thing that has ever happened to the forestry industry it's all about the turn around for as cheap as possible vs good forestry. When you run a Doug fir rotation of 40 years you loose a ton of value as well as it causes more disease to start running wild faster.
I tried explaining this on the ask a Forester board and was not received well. The 35-40 rotation is just not good. Really limiting markets. I had a friend who used to work for pope and Talbot which is a REIT,  that was just bought by rayonier also REIT, he said they would cut more on a down market to meet the minimum $ quota for the paper pushers running. A Forester who was around for the change and got out at the end said he just couldn't stand to watch it any longer and retired as soon as he could. He loves forestry and still does side work but won't go for the industrial 35-40 year garbage. 
a man is strongest on his knees

Skeans1

Quote from: quilbilly on March 25, 2020, 08:22:21 PM
Not here, before export restrictions we had a massive export market. Being next to one of the largest ports on the west coast and close to China, relatively, we ship a ton of wood that way. The local mill prices for us are driven by the export market, when it goes up so do local mills. The only thing here that really stays local is cns stuff. We get and ship lumber to Canada and around the world.

Skeans we need to mix wood, your butt size is too big, ours is too small. We are also shipping to Rochester.

Native wolf, the Rochester pole yard is owned by Stella Jones, they used to have three and consolidated all down to one. They bought out McFarland Cascade. Another example of how there used to be competition out here for wood that just doesn't exist anymore. Also our trucks are more expensive than skeans. They're all looking for $100 an hour minimum and will sit if they don't get it.


 We have a lot of this kind of second growth left

nativewolf

@quilbilly Complete Agreement!  That short rotation kills forestry and turns it into corn.  Forest are dead ecosystems...no complexity and ecologically devoid of any value other than a carbon sink.  No diversity of values/timelines, etc.  No forestry, etc.

I really enjoy the silvicultural challenge of growing mixed uneven age hardwood stands.  Really challenging and economically attractive.  We're able to generate much higher returns but it is not cookie cutter..reits hate it.  Reits are just the modern day timber barons.  They raped NE, then the appalachians, then the great lakes, then the PNW.  Now they are reinvented as REITs and doing all over again. 

The saddest thing is that they control so much of the PNW private lands.  1 nimnut decision can effectively destroy forest across millions of acres.  
Liking Walnut

Ljohnsaw

John Sawicky

Just North-East of Sacramento...

SkyTrak 9038, Ford 545D FEL, Davis Little Monster backhoe, Case 16+4 Trencher, Home Built 42" capacity/36" cut Bandmill up to 54' long - using it all to build a timber frame cabin.

donbj

I may be skinny but I'm a Husky guy

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quilbilly

Real estate investment trust. Most large timber companies have moved to this for tax purposes. I believe weyco was getting taxed %20+ then spin off a couple mills to qualify for REIT status and are now taxed around %15
a man is strongest on his knees

nativewolf

Yes a REIT is a special purpose LLC designed to allow real estate investments to flow back to owners easily.  They pay high dividends, used in commercial real estate-your local shopping malls might be owned by a REIT.  Anyhow, they are just dividend plays so they judged by ability to return $, it was not uncommon to see plum creek pay out 8%.  If the timber markets took a dive, they just cut more to deliver the same dividend %.  Lots of short term actors but really no reason it had to have been the case.  Managers were bonused based on the dividend payment rate.  In fact, in some years they would pay 10%...crazy high numbers.  They key point here is they are not judged on the value of the assets or other metrics that would reflect investments or value created by proper forest management.  Just dividends.

They had to compete with someone owning a set of commercial buildings in san fran or LA during the hot .com period or the 2004-2008 real estate bubble where rents were ever increasing which made it easy for a real estate company to keep increasing dividends because renters just got sent higher bills every year.  In 2008 that all blew up and many went under.  It would have been good for the timber REITs but the housing markets stopped and profits declined until China ramped up buying.  Then lots of smaller timber REITs could not compete and Weyerhauser is back to being the majority owner of timberland in the US.  Today they own some incredible amount of private realestate and it is shocking that they were allowed to take over Plum Creek and others, way way too much market power, should have been stopped on anti-trust grounds but the anti-trust departments under Bush/Obama were very weak kneed.  No better today though so don't get hopes up.   Nobody looking out for the little guy and on the west coast there is very little independent private land ownership not called weyerhauser.  
Liking Walnut

Skeans1

Yes there was Plum Creek but it was a small company compared to say Longview Fibre or Willamete which they have bought out both and mainly had holding in the Oregon/Washington area. Plum Creek was a lot of eastern ground which they just sold off. The only nice thing about being a small guy is now some of the mills aren't taking their wood and we see higher prices. Just to give you an idea of some their contractors are running up to full steam it's not unheard of them to do around 50 loads a day so they can really plug up a mill quick.

nativewolf

Quote from: Skeans1 on March 26, 2020, 07:29:44 AM
Yes there was Plum Creek but it was a small company compared to say Longview Fibre or Willamete which they have bought out both and mainly had holding in the Oregon/Washington area. Plum Creek was a lot of eastern ground which they just sold off. The only nice thing about being a small guy is now some of the mills aren't taking their wood and we see higher prices. Just to give you an idea of some their contractors are running up to full steam it's not unheard of them to do around 50 loads a day so they can really plug up a mill quick.
Yeah...your timberground when it is good is so crazy productive that one crew can plug a mill.  SE lob can't compete except on the # of acres.  I really enjoy seeing the pics of the nice second growth!  Don't you west coast guys be shy about making us feel small time, neat to see them.  We have some nice grounds in old estates and the $/tree can be very nice but volume wise they are just normal stuff to you.  
Plum creek bought a bunch of WV timberland from the paperco divestments,  they sold off to ...guess...guess...
Liking Walnut

Clark

Quote from: Skeans1 on March 26, 2020, 07:29:44 AM
Yes there was Plum Creek but it was a small company compared to say Longview Fibre or Willamete...
I think Plum Creek was a minor player on the west coast but they had substantial amount of land in MT and the upper Midwest. I had the opportunity to work on their ground in WI and OR. The Oregon land was near Siletz, I'll let someone else reference the move, and not nearly as nice as that Nehalem River Country!

When they bought up land in WI they certainly pulled the wool over everyone's eyes. The foresters, who I am guessing were telling what they were told, were convinced PC would be around and owning that land for decades. The locals were worried they were going to slick it all off and then sell it. They certainly had no qualms about developing lake shore or other higher value parcels of land. I recall the hunting shack on a little lake that went by the name "Little Bethlehem" which was divvied up and lots sold to people from Illinois.

They liked to sell parcels that had pine on it. One guy even contacted me through this forum asking me what I thought of the deal. They would sell him the land but they would get to thin the pine two more times!

In the end they cut as much as they could which isn't to say their prescriptions were bad but they did milk it for what it was worth and then turn around and sold it all. I'm not sure who bought the Plum Creek land in WI or MI but they certainly had some nice stuff there.

So in retrospect, I'm not a fan of REIT's owning timberland.

Clark
SAF Certified Forester

barbender

I know of one group, Molpus I think it's called, that owns all of the former Boise timberland in northern MN. I was told that it is owned by teacher's union pension funds etc., as it was considered a safe spot to park money and still get a decent return. No idea if that would be an REIT?
Too many irons in the fire

barbender

Springtime hardwood thin. Primarily Basswood/hard maple.










There's a Scorpion hiding in there somewhere-



Too many irons in the fire

Skeans1

Quote from: barbender on March 27, 2020, 12:32:52 AM
I know of one group, Molpus I think it's called, that owns all of the former Boise timberland in northern MN. I was told that it is owned by teacher's union pension funds etc., as it was considered a safe spot to park money and still get a decent return. No idea if that would be an REIT?
That's exactly what a REIT is.

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