Sappi paper

[nativewolf]

Brookfield is a crook with an agenda 21 implementation program.  Theyre the 1% class of climate warriors who are strip mining old industry to death on purpose because it does not suit their ideology.

Hmmm, the ideology is Brookfield is the $.  That's about it.  Housing, pipelines, windmills, etc etc.  They don't give a flip.  They'll cut up main woodlands and sell off as HBU, strip small towns of revenues, hold slum apartments in baltimore, scam taxpayers on dams or windmills,etc etc.  They manage 700 billion in assets so this dam is so far down the list of things they care about that decisions are being made by a junior analysts
They truly just don't care, if the spreadsheet works that's what they do.  They expect 12-15% return on equity.   5-9% dividends.  99 billion in market cap.  So if they touch anything in forestry it is because the parts are worth more than the whole because forestry does not return these numbers.  Just typical PE folks  where there is a guy in NYC (one of barge's clients  :D) or Toronto that created a model to buy old papermills in Maine and Canada.  They'll work that model until it does not work.  By work I mean until it can't pay a 12% return on equity and deliver a very strong dividend.  They'll borrow huge sums against an asset to pay dividends and then bankrupt it.  That works for them.  They are Canadian BTW so remember that when they leave the canadian mill workers with no pensions.  Summary: they have nothing to do with any UN sustainable development goals.  
Prayers to all the folks needing the Sappi mill to stay open.  I hope they find a way to get the salmon around the dam and for the fish to become commonplace again.  In the long term the fish are probably going to be the future.  

[WDH]

The type of wood fiber available to a mill determines what product they can make.  Southern pine fibers are long and can be weaved into a highly absorptive mat to make absorptive products like baby diapers, adult diapers, and products that need strength like linerboard ( the two layer cardboard with the waffle like layer sandwiched between those two layers of Kraft paper) for shipping materials like cardboard and Amazon Prime boxes, etc.  

Hardwood fibers are short and cannot compete in absorption and strength.  They excell in making a very fine mat for products like paper, copy paper, writing paper, etc.  Well guess what, southern yellow pine does not grow in the frigid, glaciated North.  What does?  Hardwoods do. So if you are up in the Cold, Desolate, Glaciated North where it snows and where winter lasts for 6 months, you have to pulp hardwood primarily for paper products.  

Guess what happened to paper?  Who uses much paper anymore except to wipe your backside where the cold North sun don't shine?  Computer Technology, The Internet, The Cloud, and the Gazillion Megabyte Hard Drive have left poor old paper in the dust snow.  The Northern Pulp Industry is struggling with the "buggy whip" syndrome.  Who buys buggy whips anymore after Henry Ford came along?  So the Northern Pulp Paper Industry is going to have to battle product obsolescence and to survive, will have to develop new and innovative products that use the short hardwood fiber to compete in the world.

Another hurdle is even if you can use the short hardwood fiber, they can grow eucalyptus to 8" to 10" in diameter and 90 feet tall in 7 years in South America.  I have seen it personally in Brazil.  The Marketplace is a World Marketplace, particularly in Forestry.  Right now, I am not buying stock in Northern Paper Mills. 

Here is a pic that I took in 2003 in Brazil of a 7 year old eucalyptus plantation being harvested near San Paulo, Brazil.  



 

[wisconsitom]

Lots of red pine gets pulped in these parts also, not just hardwoods.  In all other respects, I agree with your statements.

Similar dynamics in play all across the forest products spectrum.  I belong to the group Larch Research.com and here is yet another once-promising  initiative-to get a really great softwood tree type in greater general use-but then along comes China or Indonesia or Brazil, able to liquidate the tropical forest, often below cost, to grab market share.  Why invest time and toil into developing great trees for New Hampshire or Wisconsin or Ontario or......you get my point, some overseas supplier is able to ship product here cheaper than we can cut and mill it ourselves.

[barbender]

Spruce is the go to for long fiber length up here. We cut a lot of black spruce in the swamps in the winter,  and it almost all goes for pulp. Unfortunately, the growth rate is such that we harvest 8" dbh "timber" on a 75 year rotation😬

Gary, that hybrid eucalyptus is just otherworldly in its growth rate. I was amaze by the growth rate of timber in Georgia, it pales in comparison. 

[mike_belben]

@NW

122 year old asset company with 7 subsidiaries, 150k employees and one thousand investment advisors hires mark carney in october 2020. To be the #2 of the entire company behind CEO bruce flatt. Boy thats starting at the top, he is pretty influential id say.  

Mark is vice chair of the entire parent organization.  He is known more for being a central banker than an ecowarrior, but in brookfields own words:

He is a long-time and well-known advocate for sustainability, specifically with regard to the management and reduction of climate risks, and is currently the United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance.

THE one and only climate guru at the UN.  Thats like the throne of ecowarriordom.


He has also been one of the worlds biggest pushers of carbon exchange markets.  Do we think he will be any less of an eco warrior behind the helm of brookfield than he is at the UN or at the carbon credit task force he created? Thatd be a pretty foolish expectation.. that he would fail to use his influence to steer brookfield in a personally fulfilling way, from the tippity top of the organization.

The very first thing on their parent company home page is "getting to net zero."

Not netting a lot of zeros, getting carbon emissions to net zero. Top of the page. The blurbs on great returns come further down.

What is Marks title.. Vice Chairman and "head of transition investing."

Transition from what?   That smokey old diesel and coal powered world of old industries we grew up with like paper mills with lines of trucks waiting to be unloaded by a 988 or letourneau or whatever.. To the new era of solar farms and battery storage and all that net zero emissions stuff.

What ecowarrior wouldnt close a papermill that they bought with other peoples money after stripping more than they paid out of it..  Seriously ?

[snowstorm]

I don't think sappi is going anywhere. They have done a lot of building on since they bought it from Scott paper. And then there is Weyerhaeuser that owns a million ac. With a contract to supply them wood. Lots of lawyers be be on the job if it's needed. And if mills came out for it Paul would win by a landslide. Hopefully he dose anyway.      It appears someone doesn't know we have lots of softwood in the great white north. And if the southern pine is so good why dose so much of our spruce 2x4 and pine boards get trucked to the south?.

[Bruno of NH]

I'm no expert. 
I have been to very remote Maine with lots of land.
I seen nothing but softwood for miles and miles.
Northern New Hampshire as well mostly softwood .

[donbj]

They are Canadian BTW so remember that when they leave the canadian mill workers with no pensions.

Not sure why the Canadian comment is here, this goes far beyond us polite Canucks

[SwampDonkey]

Way up this way, spruce is king, in lumber and pulp. Hardwood is a 'weed' that has been gradually replaced. We have one hardwood pulp mill making rayon for Asia. On the pre-commercial thinning end of things, that hardwood mill is not organized at all or know which end is up. If you get a map, chances are someone else has already thinned it. :D

[Gary_C]

Gary, that hybrid eucalyptus is just otherworldly in its growth rate. I was amaze by the growth rate of timber in Georgia, it pales in comparison.

I'm not sure why I got credit for that picture but it was actually posted by the guy that is still fighting the northern red pine vs. southern yellow pine wars. I think he is a bit heat addled but he still doesn't like us poor folks that live in:

the frigid, glaciated North.  What does?  Hardwoods do. So if you are up in the Cold, Desolate, Glaciated North where it snows and where winter lasts for 6 months, you have to pulp hardwood primarily for paper products.  

:D :D

[nativewolf]

@NW

122 year old asset company with 7 subsidiaries, 150k employees and one thousand investment advisors hires mark carney in october 2020. To be the #2 of the entire company behind CEO bruce flatt. Boy thats starting at the top, he is pretty influential id say.  

Mark is vice chair of the entire parent organization.  He is known more for being a central banker than an ecowarrior, but in brookfields own words:

He is a long-time and well-known advocate for sustainability, specifically with regard to the management and reduction of climate risks, and is currently the United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance.

THE one and only climate guru at the UN.  Thats like the throne of ecowarriordom.


He has also been one of the worlds biggest pushers of carbon exchange markets.  Do we think he will be any less of an eco warrior behind the helm of brookfield than he is at the UN or at the carbon credit task force he created? Thatd be a pretty foolish expectation.. that he would fail to use his influence to steer brookfield in a personally fulfilling way, from the tippity top of the organization.

The very first thing on their parent company home page is "getting to net zero."

Not netting a lot of zeros, getting carbon emissions to net zero. Top of the page. The blurbs on great returns come further down.

What is Marks title.. Vice Chairman and "head of transition investing."

Transition from what?   That smokey old diesel and coal powered world of old industries we grew up with like paper mills with lines of trucks waiting to be unloaded by a 988 or letourneau or whatever.. To the new era of solar farms and battery storage and all that net zero emissions stuff.

What ecowarrior wouldnt close a papermill that they bought with other peoples money after stripping more than they paid out of it..  Seriously ?

Mike that's 1) giving way too much credit to him.  2) giving far too little to the UN.  UN is a huge organization controlled by no one really- all very complicated consensus approach, the organization picked someone to be the voice.  He didn't really have much choice, it is good for business and bad for business if he says no.  Brookfield is making big plays for offshore wind, carbon deals, etc.  At the same time they own gas pipelines and are buying more.  They own oil and gas properties.   It is just about the $.  
The world is transitioning and we've got another thread for that but Brookfield only owns things to make profit.  Papermills anywhere don't make much profit, not in Sweeden or Switzerland or South Africa.  That's why a South African company, South African Pulp and Paper (SAPPI) owns the mill in Maine.  If it was a great business US pulp and paper companies would still own it but our capital centers are brutal and so bad businesses are sussed out.  Same issue in Brazil actually.  Even with great growth rates (and much of Brazil can't do Euc like WDH's picture but it is still good) thats just supply, the business itself is not good because as WDH stressed ...the world is moving on.  Boxs, toliet paper, some other packaging stuff, a few magazines at checkout counters.  Sappi has closed many mills around the world, hope this one stays but who knows.   I'd guess the world needs to shed quite a few more mills before it becomes a decent business again.  
Snowstorm is pretty close with guys up there and if he says it is staying open than that is a good bet.  SAPPI is a good company from everything I've heard.  

[mike_belben]

So youre saying brookfield is in it to make a huge profit, at the same time that youre saying there isnt much profit in papermills?  

Then why is brookfield buying into them?  Clearly, operating the mills does not deliver the profit levels they demand.


I will stand by my claim.  They are buying in not to operate, but to stripmine them for profit and close them for ideological, ecological satisfaction.  In my opinion a brookfield investment is a pulp mill's eventual kiss of death no matter what rosy vision BS they claim while buying in.  

[mike_belben]

2) giving far too little to the UN.  UN is a huge organization controlled by no one really- all very complicated consensus approach, the organization picked someone to be the voice.

Im giving huge credit to both of them.


I see the UN as the iligitimate government of planet earth.  And Carney as the UN's chosen figurehead for guerilla climate combat through vehicles like brookfield with unlimited funds, posing as regular businesses out to make a profit.  America loves hearing profit.  


The problem is brookfield is the 1% profiting for themselves by killing off the industries that employ lowly knuckle draggers like me and my kind.  I work on iron.  The kind they are phasing out, not in.  

I set my face against them.  

[WDH]

I see I ("someone" referenced earlier by Snowstorm in a seemingly disparaging way) struck a few nerves.  My comments were about paper as a pulp product which has seen a significant change in demand as a result of technological change.  Many Papermills were located in the Northern half of the Northern Hemisphere.  Hardwood was the primary fiber component in that product.  

I was wrong in saying that Northern pulp was primarily hardwood in my focus to comment on what has happened to the Paper Business, and left out all the wonderful, and as I stand heat addledly corrected, magnificent softwoods.  In doing that I apparently insulted every spruce, fir, red pine, lodgepole pine, jack pine, and every other softwood growing in the frigid, glaciated, grits abhorring, Northern frozen parts, and to those trees, I deeply apologize.

[nativewolf]

yes the business has been mostly going downhill. Brookfield makes huge profits by doing as was discussed by @peakbagger .  They buy a dam that has a guaranteed profit, they fight to dramatically lower tax assessments, they will also cut all the human capital out of the upkeep, they'll then borrow a bunch of money against the asset and pay a giant dividend.  Then you have a dam that is loaded to the gills with debt that goes bankrupt and forces some local entity to take it on and pay of debts.  Some version of that over and over.  You just have only to abandon morality to understand how they make money off a single tiny dam.  That's just the dam.  Mills they get tax breaks, they can sell off paper machines, they borrow against it to the hilt, twist state govt to invest, pay brookfield execs as management and on an on.  Paying brookfield managers on the books of the asset is a favorite.  One manager getting salary from 2-3 assets all of which are getting bent over so to speak.  

Terrible business.  The only thing like it that I know of is Satellite providers and steel mills.  These are 3 assets that you see the same story over and over and over.  Bad businesses that can pay dividends and have assets to mortgage.  

Not all of Brookfields investments are "bad" deals for someone.  They own run of the mill apartments all over, commercial real estate, the gas pipelines, solar is a new one for them.  However, all those assets are going to be highly leveraged and all the cash stripped out and no re-investments.  Some like a new gas pipeline can go a long time with little additional investment, or a solar farm.  Others like commercial real estate can start to slide.  

[mike_belben]

Yeah thats plain disgusting.  Theyre exactly the crowd who benefits from money printing.  I bet theyre right near the front of the line for liqidity injections. 

[SwampDonkey]

I was wrong in saying that Northern pulp was primarily hardwood in my focus to comment on what has happened to the Paper Business, and left out all the wonderful, and as I stand heat addledly corrected, magnificent softwoods.  In doing that I apparently insulted every spruce, fir, red pine, lodgepole pine, jack pine, and every other softwood growing in the frigid, glaciated, grits abhorring, Northern frozen parts, and to those trees, I deeply apologize.

We forgive you! That line of perpetual refrigeration keeps everyone in their rightful place. It thins out the populous as the snow and ice gets thicker with ogres and dragons on the loose. Sounds of frost bitten timbers cry out as the sun rises and another day of harvesting the mighty spruce commences in hopes the equipment holds together long enough to make them payments. :D

[Gary_C]

 Sounds of frost bitten timbers cry out as the sun rises and another day of harvesting the mighty spruce commences in hopes the equipment holds together long enough to make them payments. :D

It's not only the operators that get heat addled in the south but the machines get equally heat addled. It's never good for us frigid, glaciated, grits abhorring Northerners to buy one of the previously southern residing machines because the fuel filters will be full of water turning to ice and the seals will all be toasted.

That line of perpetual refrigeration must be respected.  

[Tacotodd]

That's for sure :-[

[peakbagger]

BTW Brookfield bailed out Jared Kushner's big real estate near disaster Timeline on Jared Kushner, Qatar, 666 Fifth Avenue, and White House Policy

Brookfield bought out the former FPL hydros (former CMP hydros). They walked in, sacked half the staff of their engineer and operations group and told the remaining staff that they had better pick up the work from their former coworkers or they would become former. They pay their local managers well and hand them good benefits but they usually do not last long, lots of ex Brookfield folks out there.

 

[nativewolf]

Yep that's Brookfield.  Just about as apolitical amoral as it gets.