Log prices

[mike_belben]

Its hard to keep up anymore. 

Lumber is back down at lowes for me.  $4.x for 2x4. Around 8 for 2x6  If you correct for the currency printing of 2019, my local lumber retail price is completely normal now.  

[ehp]

Oh I'm sure a Huge Bang is coming . It has to as things are way way to far out of line to make this work . The amount of money being thrown around here right now is scarey . Farms are selling here for Huge Huge money that makes no sense but it's happening . Lots of the money is not from here . Its from over seas

[mike_belben]

Farms are selling here for Huge Huge money that makes no sense but it's happening . Lots of the money is not from here . Its from over seas

Look up de-dollarization.  Usa ruining its money is causing the world to exchange it in usa for other things that retain value better. They arent printing new land. 

[stavebuyer]

Prime farm dirt with the house lots already carved off from the road frontage was bringing 4500/acre locally in spring of 2020. Same ground is auctioning off now for $7500-10k per acre.

[ehp]

rules are alot different here , you can only divide a lot off a farm once period , we need more 1 acre lots here to build as they are crazy prices right where I live , its nothing for $350,000 to $450,000 for a acre building lot , as far as land farm prices here they are way way more than those prices you posted , like 5 years ago some farms here went for $28,000 a acre , that is not happening now 

[SwampDonkey]

It's not all foreign money increasing farm $$. Up here it is government and Ontario's Teacher's Fund (government guarantees) buying the farms. The farmer around me got all his money from Ontario Teacher's Fund, government backed of course, can't have any risk you know. :D He never had any money to even buy a house lot before that. Yes, lots of free money went into his house, that's the first thing. 'Money's no object.' My father (an old school farmer) would roll in his grave. The flow of money continues, government makes money every day from tax don't have to get returns off investment interest. Besides, all investment money goes to Ontario, not New Brunswick. :D

[ehp]

they bought alot of farms around here 4 or 5 years ago after they sold their share in the Toronto Maple Leafs , alot of people have no idea on how much money that teachers fund has , its billions 

[SwampDonkey]

16' 2x6" is still $5 more than 2019. It's drop more by spring.

[mike_belben]

in 1932 the soviets conquered their land holding, fertile capitalist cropping enemy ukraine by surrounding them and exporting all the food they produced until they starved them by the millions, it was called the holomodor and is how russia got its bread basket.  we are slowly gonna fall into the same trap. there wont need to be guns.  just a broken currency and high food prices. you priced peanut butter lately?  just wait until the next crash.  

the rich set our trends.  when the rich are buying farmland everyone else will follow.  the investment advisors that havent drank the print your way to prosperity koolaid all know that the bond returns are negative when corrected for inflation, the stock market is perched high atop mount calamity waiting for a banana peel on the step, and savings/CDs are bleeding out, they cant come close to maintaining your purchasing power, its just throwing money away slower than if you spent it on snickers bars.

  money managers are tasked with growing your wad and the only thing growing long term from here has to be on the inflation train.  so they are investing in farmland knowing that no matter how expensive now, the printing policy of fiat currencies will continually push it higher.  nice cars, houses, forests and vacations, we would like to have, but food we need to have so farmland will always remain an inflation leader.  acreage only gets smaller the longer you wait. price per acre only goes up.  land values really cant crash for long in a printing press environment.

what stock can you buy where the stock itself secures the super cheap loan to buy it?  

[nativewolf]

Ed's spot on about pension funds buying land.  They usually have some criteria and it may be canada only for the teachers fund.  There is a limited amount of land so they bid it up, up just keeps happening.  

Same in the midwest of usa, started with John Hancock decades ago but really got hot around the time of the housing crisis.  Farmland is still far over valued, very hard to get a return on capital that makes sense.  That said it's been a long ongoing trend.

Take the University of Virginia- they have a $14 billion endowment.  That's just the 1 school, they keep that invested to get a 5% return.  When the stock market returns 30% they have an extra $4.2 billion.  They have to sell some of the stock asset to keep the portfolio balanced so they are buying bonds and real estate.  Urban land may have only been up 10% this year so they bought more urban land.  Pensions end up owning gas stations, shopping malls, condos, farms, forests, etc.  Our very own @wudman has seen this trend rise and fall in forestry.  It's one of the reasons that towns with centers of education are more stable and wealthier, the universities have traditionally just bought land in the cities/towns where they are based.  That's all changed but historically it was easy to see.  

[WDH]

The Ontario Teachers Retirement Fund bought a substantial part of the 350,000 acres of timberland that the company that I worked for sold in 2004.

That same fund has furiously been buying up independent Veterinarian Practices in this area.  The Vet business here has gone corporate.  

[wisconsitom]

Here, farm land-and that "farm land" can have pine trees and birch trees growing on it-is very high-priced.  Only Mr. Mega-Farmer can afford it when a chunk goes up for sale.

And buy he does, and clears, and grows more corn.  Rinse and repeat.

[SwampDonkey]

Meanwhile PEI potato farmers are in Ottawa today with potatoes to pass out to make citizens aware of a non issue with our trading partner to the south. If PEI potatoes are blocked, that also throws NB farmers in the same corral.

What new trade dispute will be drawn up next week?

This blockade is self imposed by Trudeau's government, I should add.

[ehp]

Well I bid on 2 more bushes cause I'm stupid as its not like I'm out of work but I bid what they were worth. Trees over the highway hard and lots of them.. lot of blew over trees so you know your going to loose lots when bucking them off the stumps and I know alot of butt rot . Trees are way to old and bush has never been taken care off so the main mill was abit higher than me but the other little mill to the north beat both of us so someone needs a lesson of how to read standing Trees cause they sure not going to make any money on those bushes . Your going to have to block the highway to cut about 8 or 10 of the bad trees over the rd  and hydro wires . Maybe a big excavator could push them over but no skidder using your cable will even come close to doing it 

[Ed_K]

 Checked Bloomberg business channel last night before going to bed an the price per 1k mbf was up over $1100. :(. What's going on here for it to jump $500. in two days  >:(

[mike_belben]

4 state tornado rebuilding. 

[SwampDonkey]

Since the bottoming out the first of September the price of lumber has been on a gradual incline, now over $1100 for 2 x 4's. Been happening before the tornado, but I'd say the hurricanes back then. Not that the tornadoes didn't push it higher. :-\ The jump was over a 3 month period. Still half what is was in May.

Mike probably has no trouble finding Irving covered lumber on the rail road yards.

[mike_belben]

Irving and idaho forest product very common in the world of cheap freight. 

[Ed_K]

4 state tornado rebuilding.

It's just not right for these Corporate Ceo's to take advantage of people in dire straights so they can get richer >:(

[nativewolf]

Most of the Timber companies are public or private and big statements of "family values"- the large private companies mostly lead off with that line.  Write them a letter and highlight that it is not a good family value.  Hampton, Idaho Forest, Sierra, etc.  

The public companies are pretty much obligated to make as much profit as they can, legally.  Competition is huge. Many years they have losses.  Is that not fair then either?  

[mike_belben]

Futures contracts are traded by the public so its as much the public identifying a place to make a buck themselves.

Once upon a time you had to take delivery of your futures contract order.  I think it may be the chicago mercantile exchange board who made the change to turn them to a trading toy that whiplashes the whole country. 

[beenthere]

It's either the companies or the Gov't that hire most people to work (have a job) or its the individual that self-employs. 
The companies have to make a profit to hire (pay for) more people. The Gov't just gets their money by taking a cut. 

Granted, seems like CEO's get a lot, but so do the sports players. I try not to be jealous.. i.e. not covet thy neighbor. 

[SwampDonkey]

Sometimes it's the government paying for the private jobs to. :D

[Ed_K]

 I'm sorry but the big public companies haven't lost money for a long time. I read bloom magizine weekly and read of a ceo wining he needs a 10 mil bonus because he got over another company's best quarter that's just greed.

[mike_belben]

He wont be taking any of it with him when he leaves earth. And it probably wouldnt bring much comfort where he might end up.