Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[SwampDonkey]

A little daja vu.

Turns out New Brunswick has been in this 'social distancing' before. Dr. William F. Roberts led a provincial battle against Spanish flu pandemic more than 100 years ago. He'd received his education in the early 1880s at New York City's Bellevue Hospital Medical College.

The N.B. Public Health Act was passed on October 1918 and days later Dr. Roberts and CMO Dr. Melvin used its sweeping powers to impose physical distancing throughout New Brunswick during the Spanish flu pandemic. NB had 1500 deaths and 10 % infection rate, second lowest in the country.

He was later defeated in a provincial election over the pasteurization of milk. But soon after thought of as a hero.

source: CBC

[Bandmill Bandit]

I put this in the wrong place yesterday so i did a cut and paste to here. IF a mod could remove the other one that would probably be a good thing.

Some good news announced earlier today.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/spartan-covid19-test-kit-new-1.5530669

This may be a game changer for diagnostics at the very least.

[SwampDonkey]

Been dumping milk from the dairies up here now for a week. Stores limiting purchase amounts. Doesn't make sense to me. I think their supply/demand model has failed.

[alan gage]

Been dumping milk from the dairies up here now for a week. Stores limiting purchase amounts. Doesn't make sense to me. I think their supply/demand model has failed.

The large pork processor in Sioux Falls I mentioned a little higher in the thread has gone from 80 cases to nearly 500 cases in less than a week. They're shut down indefinitely. That leaves the farmers who were supplying them with 3000 hogs/week with nowhere to sell them. And if those farmers are selling 3000 hogs/week then they must be buying 3000 baby hogs/week from somewhere. If the farmers are not selling their hogs then surely they're not buying the little ones. And someone is supplying feed for all those pigs. Really screws things up all the way down the line.
A news story talking about this said that 60% of the bacon goes to restaurants, many of which are shut down or struggling, so overall demand for bacon is way off. But the places that have been supplying restaurants can't just flip a switch and start supplying grocery stores because of packaging differences (and probably contracts and other things) so they're stuck with all this bacon they can't sell. Some of it has been going directly to rendering plants.
Sounds like they're actually thinking of euthanizing a lot of baby pigs.
Alan

[Ljohnsaw]

Been dumping milk from the dairies up here now for a week. Stores limiting purchase amounts. Doesn't make sense to me. I think their supply/demand model has failed.

We don't drink a lot of milk.  I bought some a couple weeks back and then some yesterday.  Price went up about 50 cents a gallon ($3.09 now).  On the plus side, gas is down to $2.45 now (from $3.40ish a month ago).

[Bandmill Bandit]

Swampdonkey The supply model is working too good. When you take out the school milk programs, coffee shops and restaurants you eliminate about 40% of the fluid milk market. And when you add ice cream and cheeses etc. (industrial milk) to that for the same markets you can add another 20 to 25% so about 60%+/- of the milk market is gone for the time being. 

Its unfortunate that the dumping is happening BUT the marketing boards have been given provisions to compensate for the dumped product in the federal relief plan. The producers have to turn in the delivery slips to get paid for dumped product. A significant amount of it will be getting mixed into the daily feed rations for younger animals in the herd so "dumped", yes, wasted not so much.

Many of them are taking healthy but weary animals out of the production stream early in their lactation cycle for an extra month or 2 of rest and doing more aggressive herd culling of older animals to reduce short term production.       

[SwampDonkey]

Milk is one of them things that is stable in pricing. The supply and price is regulated up here. So if it is $4 today same next week. In fact if there is shenanigans on price at the store, the store won't fair too well.

I seen a guy in ND mentioned that his eggs has gone from $2/dz to $5 a dz during this. We don't see that going on here. But we don't have eggs any cheaper than $3/dz and $4.50 for free range. Canadian dollars. I'm sure if I was in the egg business $2/dz was probably the price back in 1986. :D

Now yeast, yeast is all sold out. Flour is even hard to get some weeks, but I guess a lot of pies and cookies are being made, since your not going to get the bread to rise too well. But then there is always pancakes, but baking power is pretty much gone to. Seen one bottle left in the stores, I grabbed it. :D

[DWyatt]

@ljohnsaw I do not envy where you live. I got gas at the expensive station (most convenient for me) this morning before work and it was $1.35! 

[Gary_C]

There are seven stations in MN under a dollar a gallon for gas with the lowest at 79 cents. Eggs are below a dollar also.

[SwampDonkey]

The mid west seems the cheapest, but even in central Maine it is $1.59/gallon.

Find The Nearest Gas Stations & Cheapest Prices | Save On Gas

[SwampDonkey]

Here's Bernstein on the price of eggs in ND. :D

The price of eggs - YouTube

[azmtnman]

The large pork processor in Sioux Falls I mentioned a little higher in the thread has gone from 80 cases to nearly 500 cases in less than a week. 

@doc henderson 
   How contagious is Covid-19? Compared to, say, most regular influenzas? 
  I saw early on it had a contagion??  factor of 2 compared to a well known disease (don't remember which one) that was 8. Probably just internet BS.
  I have followed the "keep your hands washed, don't touch you face" guidelines for many years and don't generally get sick (I screw up occasionally and get a cold.)
  Is the spread of this just due to bad individual disease prevention practices or is this one of those that's super contagious?
I appreciate your time in this thread. It's the only information I have taken with more than a grain of salt. 

[doc henderson]

good question.  Just like a lot of the science people the honest answer is we do not know.  influenza is very contagious and all health care folks are supposed to get the vaccine.  this is so they are not passing it to immunocompromised folks, or those with comorbid conditions.  most healthy people survive.  We "think" C19 is very contagious as well. It also tends to be mild and or asymptomatic in healthy younger people.  It is possible that everyone in the US will show antibodies basically saying it is 100% transmittable.  Kids seem to do better and this could because they are young and healthy, or because they have had 3 other corona viruses in the past few years and have some cross immunity.  these are detailed and complex questions that will take several years to sort out.  If it turns out that this mutation to C19 is stable and it does not continue to change, it may be this is a one year deal.  In other word one and done, and or a vaccine can be the same for years like the MMR.  Or if it mutates yearly, need to try to predict and develop annual vaccines like the Influenza that is changed each year.  Until we can test large numbers and extrapolate to the general population, we do not know the infection rate.  If you develop antibodies, you have had the infection, but may of had no symptoms.  You may of had some virus this past winter with symptoms, but was not C19.  If we continue with hand washing and social distancing on a volunteer basis next year, we should she drastic reduction in influenza deaths as well.  this is why I have not been posting each day.  Ask me again next year and I think we can say for sure.  Be Safe and Strong.  Help those in need.  I can tell you I do not get anxious when I go to work, although we have not had (and may not have)  a surge.  we are prepared, but not being an urban area, we may be spared.  The degree of contagiousness, my be due to it being novel (new)  and no vaccine.  So the flu may be just as contagious, but the shots and prev. infection is helping reduce those numbers.

[doc henderson]

We would need a large randomized trial.  meaning select a group at random, and check them all.  we may find an antibody that identifies the virus as having been present, but it has to also be a virus that destroys the virus or prevents attachment to provide immunity.  so the other question when you develop and antibody test, is , if positive, does it protect you.  some of the current test have a 30% (estimated, still unknown)  false negative rate.  so it would mean you have the virus, but test negative anyway in 30% of cases with the virus.  way too much unreliable information.  Dr. Oz has touted a lot of unproven retail remedies in the past, but he has stepped up as a medical person for this.  The medication talked about is another story, and we should try them if needed for the sick, but collect data to review when it is available.  We have enough people saying all kinds of stuff, we do not need the medical profession causing more confusion.  

[Ianab]

I think the transmission rate between Covid and Flu might be similar, but a lot of folks have some resistance to the flu via vaccination or exposure to previous similar strains. So if you get exposed to flu, you might fight it off, or get a mild case. Most folks probably get exposed multiple times
If you get exposed to Covid, you will probably get it, and the severity depends on "things" that aren't really known yet. Some folks get it so mild they don't notice, they have the virus, but not enough to create any real symptoms, others get it real bad. 

Covid is a similar virus to the common cold, just 99.999% of the population have decent resistance to that. We get a mild symptoms for a few days, then shrug it off and carry on. Because of this there is no big push to find a cure for the common cold. Easier to stock up on tissues / paracetamol and live with it.  

I suspect it will be a slow year for flu and colds, just due to all the extra precautions being taken.

BTW, only 8 new cases here in NZ, unfortunately  2 more deaths, but again older folks with other health issues. Looking forward to lockdowns hopefully easing a little next week. 

The isolation / social distance thing seems to be the only real defence at the moment. So if you are in it, keep at it. 

[SwampDonkey]

New study using data from several countries suggests that those with the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin tuberculosis vaccine are 10 x less likely to get COVID-19. I've been vaccinated for this since I had TB when I was 2 years old. The US has not had a universal vaccine for this. The study comes from the Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas. The largest cancer centre in the US.

BCG vaccination policies make a ten times difference in Covid-19 incidence, mortality: New study

[SwampDonkey]

Current evidence on wearing face masks is a different message than 4 weeks ago.

Masks Save Lives - COVID-19

[Ron Scott]

Montana Public Radio, April 15, 2020

The U.S. Forest Service is allowing loggers more time to meet their contracts in national forests due to the novel coronavirus, according to a notice published in the federal register. The move is meant to lend a helping hand to the timber industry as operations shut down across the country, the notice says.READ MORE

[Bill]

While I agree with the need for social distancing I do not think it is sufficient but rather a first step to get folks to buy in to prevention .

What I remember is that virus ( CV19 + ) is transmitted by contact through a body opening - cuts, nose, mouth, eyes,  etc etc . I am told/believe it cannot penetrate skin which is why we wash our hands after being out.  In my humble opinion we are still too vulnerable .

My point is that you can be wearing a cloth  ( or n95 mask or ??? ) then go for gas. The person 5 minutes before you ( and now miles away ) sneezed and some got on his/her hand right before they picked up the gas pump handle. Now you, with or without gloves, pump your gas, pay and leave . You then  rub your eye ( before you take off your gloves ) .  Ooops - I pretty much believe it is likely in your eye.

Ditto for ATM's , change from the store, etc etc .

My thinking is that our ( initial ) social distancing needs the next level education for us all .

Just my $0.02

[SwampDonkey]

Well, Sweden's relaxed approach has increased their infection rates compared to countries following strict guidelines. I guess they became the test case for the rest of us.

Why Sweden's Lax Coronavirus Approach Could Be Backfiring | Time

[SwampDonkey]

Looks like an Alberta based meat facility has shut down as well. 484 cases of COVID-19, one death.

Worker dies, hundreds sick as Cargill temporarily closes meat-processing plant at centre of COVID-19 outbreak | CBC News

[doc henderson]

so the shelter in place for the vulnerable and social distancing has helped.  not sure we will have a surge in our area of Kansas, however, when things open up again, the question is will we have a second wave or peak.  this is new so no one knows!

[barbender]

Why are the meat packing plants so prone to large outbreaks? They had the same thing in Sioux Falls, SD.

[WV Sawmiller]

   Not sure but from what I read about the Smithfield plant in SD the workers were working shoulder to shoulder on the processing line. Also they are often illegal immigrants and I suspect they don't have the access and experience using hygiene necessary to stay safe. May be one of the reasons I always cook my meats well done.

[Ianab]

Not sure but from what I read about the Smithfield plant in SD the workers were working shoulder to shoulder on the processing line.

Like you say, people working in close proximity, shared facilities (everyone goes to the break room at the same time). 

Same thing as a cruise ship (or an aircraft carrier really).  One person gives the virus to 10 others. They each give it to 10 more. After a week you have 100 cases. Then those 100 go home and infect their families...