Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[SwampDonkey]

I think they are trying to find a better test from what I hear on the radio, but what they have is better than none for now.

[SwampDonkey]

Day 8 here for no new infections detected, 7 active cases, 4 hospitalized, no ICU, no deaths.

I think the consensus on immunity is that there is some once you recover, but not 100 % protection for everyone. Health Canada advises against using the concept of herd immunity to open up the economy.

I also think there can be an issue of false positive testing. Which goes back to my previous post, where they are trying to find a much better test. It is being researched for sure.

[doc henderson]

One problem is they are mostly testing people with symptoms and or who are wanting it done, and mostly in areas with high density like NYC.  A reliable rapid test usually takes decades to develop.  and we do not even have good ways to verify reliability.  Many people assume that a test is perfect and always right.  That is why we in the bizz refer to interpreting a test, knowing its strength and weakness.  a teat is sensitive if it never misses the disease, but might get some extras in there.  it is called casting a wide net, and usually prompts more precise testing.  it is used to screen for disease.  a test that if it is positive is always right is said to be specific.  and confirms a disease.  We love it if a test is both sensitive and specific.  and we are happy with about 97%.  If one is high and the other not so much, we have to be careful how we use the test.  The antibody test that we use to see if you have recovered has a lot of false positives.  meaning it is reassuring but wrong about 30% of the time.  that antibody may just be a marker and not confer immunity, and especially if the test is false.  The antigen test to see if you have the virus, has a false negative rate about 30%  so if you get the test and it is negative you should be happy and safe, but it is wrong about 1/3rd of the time.  it would be nice if they would test all the population.  if they did a cross section of 10% it could be extrapolated.  but they are not doing that.  they are doing it in suspected patients in high load areas, and or workers in high load areas.  not at all a cross section that can be proportioned to the whole country.  and with all the false positives and negatives... it is why i keep saying we just do not know!   stay strong and stay safe!

[Gary_C]

Keep Your Pants On

[gspren]

@doc henderson, when you typed "a teat is sensitive" was that another symptom or was your mind elsewhere? Couldn't just be that the a&s are next to each other. :D

[doc henderson]

yes it is beginning to affect cattle as well! :D :D :D.  just kidding do not want to start rumors.  i saw that after I posted and meant to go back and correct it, but also thought it was funny.  so glad i left it and you  got a kick out of it.   8).  i guess it does affect cats and on "meet the Fockers"  the guy did milk a cat!

[barbender]

I noticed that too but thought I'd let the serious nature of the topic at hand override my desire to turn everything humorous  for once😂😂

[kantuckid]

Doc!!! that's a great post r.e. the test thing.

I do wish the media would stop the drama/politics of their reports.

Thanks for that not permeating this thread.

In discussion of the seasonal sways in viruses and talk of the second phase of covid next fall, etc. I had this thought- with semi-tropical climates such as FL, why does that not enter into conversations now taking place when media "experts" talk FL as compared to various other states where springs just now coming, just because a states "numbers" are such and such?

-well sort of coming. :D cold as a tater here right now.

It's 97 today in Amarillo,TX where our oldest lives! (snowed there a few days ago) Does that mean TX "numbers" will go quickly better?

[doc henderson]

we are assuming C19 will behave like other viruses, but as you know, we do not know for sure, at what temp it will decline.  it is thought that humidity will knock it down as well.  If the summer does nothing to it, then we may have a resurgence just from lifting the stay at home.  so those at risk should still use caution.  Here are some pictures of our police, fire, and EMS teams welcoming us to work, and thanking us for our service, as we thanked them for theirs.



 



 



 

usflag

[SwampDonkey]

In New Brunswick,  it has been 16 days with no new cases of infections detected. All previous 118 cases have recovered, no deaths from COVID-19 infection.

Update: Apparently, 1 person travelled here from Toronto on April 29 and landed in Moncton airport has tested positive. Being investigated further.

[Claybraker]

In Georgia looks like we've finally got the daily number of new cases under a K.  Now at 29,409 total cases.  1224 deaths. 

If heat and humidity help to control it we've got that here in Georgia. Looking at the hot spots here, seems the farther away you are from a poultry processor and the closer you are to the ocean the lower the case rate per 100/k.  I'm thinking perfect time for a road trip. Someplace with better room service than what I've got here.

[doc henderson]

 

 

[Sedgehammer]

I agree, but couldn't bring myself to click on the 'like' bottom...... 
The couple that took the fish tank cleaner in AZ and she and the media blamed someone....... The lady now is being investigated for murder. 

[Bill]

I have heard that she was arrested for spousal abuse not too long after they got married but they had " worked it out " .

Hard to believe that a chemist ( he's supposed to be chemical engineer  ? ?  ? ) would knowingly take tank cleaner. OTOH she supposedly mixed it in his dinner stew than didn't have any herself .

Leastways iffen you believe the ' net .

[donbj]

Interesting video on those "looking out" for us.

https://plandemicmovie.com/

[SwampDonkey]

I have heard that she was arrested for spousal abuse not too long after they got married but they had " worked it out " .

Hard to believe that a chemist ( he's supposed to be chemical engineer  ? ?  ? ) would knowingly take tank cleaner. OTOH she supposedly mixed it in his dinner stew than didn't have any herself .

Leastways iffen you believe the ' net .

The story I read was that she also ingested it and was very ill herself, in critical condition.

Arizona man dead, wife in hospital after ingesting chloroquine over coronavirus fears | CBC News

[Bill]

Well . . .

Note - article was March and I don't think the marital issues surfaced till later - but any injury/death is not a good result . I haven't heard more since hearing that she would be charged with murder - maybe she really didn't know ?

Somewhere there's this bumper sticker that comes to mind

You think education is expensive

try ignorance .


I believe it coulda been Lincoln that said a rising tide raises all boats . He also was a monumental failure time after time - but - always persevered and most would say ended up pretty successful .

[Gary_C]

Here is the rest of the story about the man in AZ that died.
Man Who Died Ingesting Fish Tank Cleaner Remembered as Intelligent, Levelheaded Engineer

Here is more about the wife. I'm not sure about you but I would not eat anything she put in front of me if I was her husband.

The couple met while working at John Deere in Waterloo in 2000, according to Wanda Lenius. Gary Lenius was a longtime senior engineer at the company and Wanda Halverson had recently started as a temp worker. Both were divorced. They married by the end of the year, and Wanda Lenius was hired full time in the company's supply management division.
Seven months after their wedding, the Waterloo Police Department responded to a domestic incident at their home. The couple had gotten into an argument "concerning counseling and a possible divorce" during which Wanda allegedly hit her husband in the chest and swung a mounted birdhouse at him, according to a court affidavit from the responding officer, William Sauerbrei.
The state attorney's office charged Wanda Lenius with misdemeanor domestic abuse assault. But the couple reconciled and Gary Lenius testified in support of his wife at the trial, saying he was not hurt or put in fear of injury. The judge found Wanda not guilty.
In 2005, after working full time at John Deere for four years, Wanda Lenius went on long-term disability after developing debilitating mental and physical health problems from gender and age discrimination she faced at the company, according to court records in a 2012 lawsuit she filed against John Deere.
Wanda Lenius told the court that she faced "gender-based harassment" and age discrimination, including getting passed over for promotions because she was a woman in her 40s. The litigation was similar to a lawsuit she had filed in 1997 against her former employer, the Cedar Valley Medical Clinic, although in that case, she said the company discriminated against her because she was viewed as a "young, single girl." That case was dismissed in 1999.
Dr. James Harding, Wanda's psychologist at the Black Hawk-Grundy Mental Health Center in Waterloo, told the court in the John Deere lawsuit that Wanda had post-traumatic stress disorder and anger issues due to her experience at the company.
"In the process of externalizing her stress, she remains very angry and full of adrenaline much of the time which has been very hard on her health," he said in a July 31, 2013, letter. "Anything related to John Deere such as signs, colors, even former friends there can be powerful triggers to flashbacks, causing rage and a desire to attack back."

You can't make this stuff up.  :

[pineywoods]

Maybe a bit extreme, here's what I am facing. I'm in reasonable good health, but the wife is a different story
1- 84 years old
2- defective heart
3-brain damage from a stroke
4- sleep apnea breathing disorder
5- thyroid disorder
 
Any visitors are told to stay in their vehicle, One visitor in the house in the last 6 weeks. nearest neighbor is 1/4 mile away. The mail lady is masked and gloved.
Call in curbside pickup for groceries, drive through window at drugstore and bank. I haven't been in a store in 2 months. All packages are wiped/sprayed with dis-infectant before being brought in the house..
Floor in the house (ceramic tile) mopped with bleach frequently. Counters and worktops wiped down. Frequent hand washing, just in case I slip up and forget what I may have touched.
In short, any possible infection route I can think of will be dealt with
by any means possible.
Sad fact, in her condition, even a mild case, odds of surviving aren't good.
Anything I may have missed ?

[doc henderson]

sounds like you have more than just the bases covered.  it is sad we have to live this way, but better than the other possibilities.

[Sedgehammer]

That's hard @pineywoods , but like doc said, looks like you're doing all you can. Hopefully you guys will be ok through this. Take care. Thoughts and prayers from our family to yours.

[Gary_C]

I have a similar situation with a 78 year old wife with constant A-Fib and a pacemaker, sleep apnea and confirmed diagnosis of Alzheimer's. She is in otherwise good health with all her medications she is taking but getting increasingly hard to control with ever increasing memory issues.

We are also isolated in a rural area but I am not doing all the things you are doing to disinfect the house and incoming items. I do not allow her to go shopping with me much to her displeasure and I do wear masks outside the car. The one thing I would suggest if you don't already have is to get a SoClean machine for her CPAP and I also use the SoClean chamber to disinfect the masks we use. The machine uses an ozone generator to kill the bacteria (and virus) on the cleaning cycle.

Unfortunately I am getting close to the time when I will not be able to care for my wife without confinement. However the numbers in MN are that 80% of the deaths in MN are from managed care facilities while in NY they are 25% and according to recent numbers in NY 66% of the cases in hospitals came from homes. There are no good answers.  

[Stephen1]

I am impressed on what you are guys are doing for your wifes. Sounds like you are doing all you can. Only time will tell where we end up with this illness as it runs it's course

[Ianab]

I am impressed on what you are guys are doing for your wifes. Sounds like you are doing all you can. Only time will tell where we end up with this illness as it runs it's course

That's one thing that gets missed in the "It's only killing old or sick people" argument. 
Those "old" or"sick" people are our  Mothers or Wives as the case may be.  Heck they could have another 10 or 20 years with their Grandkids or Greats. 
My Mum is pushing 80, but no reason to think she wont make 90+ based on the family history. 

[Ianab]

As of today, NZ has zero known active cases, and has gone to Alert 1, which is only border controls and contract tracing. Borders are pretty much still locked down as that's the way a fresh outbreak could occur. Otherwise it's pretty much back to "normal". 

Still going to be more economic fallout with zero overseas tourism :(