Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[Sedgehammer]

After a 7 am meeting,  they are setting up for overflow with a disaster trailer and two large tents in the drive to the ed.  We are in "it" now.  should at least send a message as many in the community are over the whole "covid"  thing

Hoping for the best for you Doc!

My daughter said the hospital she works for has 2 units, both were full. They have a hospital annex they shut down last year that they prepped this spiting and never used that they are getting ready again. Not near the death rate, but still many people needing some help.

My neurologist caught it in Aug. Spent 3 days in hospital. Said he got fairly sick, but didn't need a vent. Was over weight and a diabetic. Lost nearly 30 lbs. Said he no longer needs insulin. Was glad he lost the weight, but wishes it was in a different way and then laughed. He said his wife was with him all the time except those 3 days in the hospital. they never changed their habits around each other, slept in same bed, everything and she never caught it and doesn't have any antibodies for it, as she got tested a few weeks back. only thing he can think is her t-cells have some type of memory and that's shy she never got it.

My wife still sees patients with it. She saw a little girl has had it 5 weeks, still shedding. Not really sick, but not really 100% either. Her grandma got it first, then the mom, then the little girl. Flu rate is way down so far. Her clinic has the rapid blood test, so they can test patients to see if they are positive on the spot.

[JJ]

My son, a freshman in college just got thrown out of the university dorm.
He is supposed to covid test 2x a week on Mondays and Thursdays, and decided to only test on Thursday. :
After 3 weeks, and 3rd skipped test, he gets a report of Student Violation and kicked out before any hearing, and has 1/3 strikes to suspension.

So for rest of this semester he will remote learn, and have to commute to the college (~40 miles) for exams and labs.
I get to go move him home tomorrow.. 

         JJ

[Jeff]

It is now right next to us. Neighbors slightly older than Tammy and I. He is heavier than I use to be. He was out bagging leaves today and told me hecwas feeling a bit drug out and felt like a slight cold. Been sick about a week he figured. I never get closer than talking distance. 40 or 50 feet

[Sedgehammer]

Here's a funny or not.....

My 7 year old's football team has their 2nd playoff game tomorrow (they are undefeated) in a neighboring small town. The small towns population (1,150, schools total population is 828 ) where they are playing is having an outbreak. We asked to move the game and the organization said they play the game where the outbreak is or they cancel the game and we're out of the playoffs. This all the while saying how important safety is for all involved...... 

[doc henderson]

getting prepared for winter overflow.  hope we do not need it.

 

[firefighter ontheside]

Hospitals are just about full here too.  It's ironic that when the situation wasn't really that bad we had all kinds of restrictions.  Couldn't go anywhere that wasn't necessary.  Restaurants and bars were closed, etc.  Now that it's bad, we just let people go on as if nothing is wrong.  No mask mandates in my county and we are a hotspot.  Almost 200 new cases per day.  You would think they could take what we've learned about transmission and prevention and come up with a plan that could actually help without shutting everything down.  My friend is the county health dept. manager and she had all kinds of threats to her family when they talked about doing a mask mandate.  Seriously, people threaten to harm children because they don't want to be forced to wear a little mask.  I have no respect for that type of person.  The firefighters that work for me are out there every day on medical calls getting exposed.  For me, I only go on the most serious of medical calls and don't have to worry about a great degree of exposure.

[Sedgehammer]

@firefighter ontheside People that wood threaten anyone's family, especially kids needs to have a dirt nap. 

I'm glad our governor is resisting any calls for mask mandates and so far most mayors and county officials are also resisting. Everything is open as it should be. 

[Ljohnsaw]

I'm glad our governor is resisting any calls for mask mandates and so far most mayors and county officials are also resisting. Everything is open as it should be.

What?  You don't see the correlation?  Over Halloween, there were hoards of (young) individuals hitting the party/bar scene real hard without masks or social distancing.  Predicted an upswing in the next 2 weeks.  Here we are a week later and there is a big upswing going on that is still trending up.

[Sedgehammer]

@ljohnsaw Our state has been between .5% and 1.6% for several months and we are still in that spread and everything is open and we had Halloween everywhere. But the riots all summer didn't....  

Most likely increases are from being indoors much more

No matter, even if so, choices and freedom.

this is a fact. As to masks. I can smell cigarette smoke from 20 tables away. If I can smell it, I'm breathing it and so are you, but the virus is multiple times smaller, so much more. Look at the picture I posted with the smoke. Whether it's directed or not, it's all around you.

Here's another fact. I had a doc appointment on Friday. A new doc. doc of nero ophthalmology. Masks are mandatory. He was giving me some tests and and my mask got lowered when my chin came off of the rest. He got all excited and said if I'm not going to wear my mask, I'll have to leave. I said I'll wear it, it just came down when my chin was on the chin rest and I said these masks (same style in picture I posted a few days ago) don't do much anyways. He even gets more excited and says these help save 1,000's of lives. So I asked him, doc, why are your glasses fogging up? he says because when i breath.... He then caught himself and stopped. He was silent for several seconds and then says, I never thought of that.
 

[alan gage]

this is a fact. As to masks. I can smell cigarette smoke from 20 tables away. If I can smell it, I'm breathing it and so are you, but the virus is multiple times smaller, so much more. Look at the picture I posted with the smoke. Whether it's directed or not, it's all around you.

Here's another fact. I had a doc appointment on Friday. A new doc. doc of nero ophthalmology. Masks are mandatory. He was giving me some tests and and my mask got lowered when my chin came off of the rest. He got all excited and said if I'm not going to wear my mask, I'll have to leave. I said I'll wear it, it just came down when my chin was on the chin rest and I said these masks (same style in picture I posted a few days ago) don't do much anyways. He even gets more excited and says these help save 1,000's of lives. So I asked him, doc, why are your glasses fogging up? he says because when i breath.... He then caught himself and stopped. He was silent for several seconds and then says, I never thought of that.

I'm not going to bite. Will only say that I don't agree your simple logic is as simple as you make it seem.
Alan

[Don P]

The rest of the world and various counties in the states have shown that they do make a difference. We have chosen to politicize this which is a shame. We are number one in the world for a reason, that is the undeniable fact.

[Sedgehammer]

@alan gage There is no bite. Fact is if you can smell it, it's there. The picture with the smoke clearly shows that while it's not coming directly out, it's coming out all around you you.

@Don P Fact is that'd be false Don. We aren't #1 and that doesn't include China, as their numbers are a complete hoax. Plus there has been no studies that prove usage works. Also our numbers are not accurate, as if you die of something else, many get listed as due to covid. To what extent, I'm not sure, but they are skewed. This has been documented elsewhere.

If you want to wear a mask, please do so. I do not believe that you should be forced to not wear one if you want to.

Another fact is both the CDC and the mask manufacturers BOTH say that the masks will not stop you from getting a virus. There's a reason why they both state this for THOSE mask types, as they do NOT seal off the face. As the picture i posted shows, it just comes out all around the mask.

Fact. N/P 95 and N/P are different. P100 is best, as it filters out 100% of viruses and is for wet locations. If worn properly they will stop all virus 100% from coming in through or out of them. This IS PROVEN.

We are 1.6% DOD. We have stayed in this range for several months now. 100% open.

My wife uses a N95 at work. She uses same one daily/weekly as the clinic cannot find enough to use a new one daily. 

These are facts that I've posted.

[Gary_C]

The rest of the world and various counties in the states have shown that they do make a difference. We have chosen to politicize this which is a shame. We are number one in the world for a reason, that is the undeniable fact.

Show me the science or the studies to back those claims up. 
From what I know and see, those are opinions and not facts and yes, it has become political. It has been generally accepted that shutdowns are counterproductive and create more exposure but many countries and states in their frustration are still willing to try more shutdowns.

Masks may or not be effective but I do wear one when I go to businesses in the hope it will protect me. My wife is very bad about keeping her mask up because of breathing problems but so far we have escaped any problems. I don't allow her to go into any stores but she has many doctor's appointments where she has to go in.
What I have heard is this virus is seasonal just like the flu so this spike in cases is not unexpected. 

Also from what I see, shutdowns, social distancing and masks are just Band-Aids to slow the spread for what that's worth and the only cure or factor that will allow us to get back to normal or herd immunity will be a vaccine and there is good news this morning from Pfizer about their vaccine with 90 % successful results.  

[Ianab]

These are facts that I've posted

No they aren't, or they are taken out of context. 

NO mask will 100% protect you because the virus could enter via your eyes, or be on your hands and transfer when you take your mask off. But even simple masks Reduce the amount of virus an infected person sprays out into the surrounding air. Less virus particles floating in the air = less chance of the people nearby being infected. That has been shown to be a fact, and there is good evidence that even if you are infected, a lower initial infection load can lead to a milder case, and a milder case means less chances of you infecting others (especially if you are still wearing that mask)

So thinking "I'm wearing a mask, so I'm safe" is 100% untrue.  That's NOT the same as "Everyone wearing a mask cuts down the rate of transmission".

China's numbers? OK you might not believe them, but your belief doesn't make it a fact, and I tend to think they are fairly accurate. China is now "open for business" pretty much as usual. Extended family have returned from work there, and the general population aren't worried about transmission in the community, This is only possible because the Chinese Govt CAN and WILL close down an entire city or province to control the virus. As in the army sets up road blocks and patrols the streets, airports are shut down, no trains etc. When they roll out testing stations, they will test a whole city or province in a week. Stuff that a Western country wouldn't even consider doing, but is ruthlessly effective for disease control. 

Having experienced an effective lockdown here in NZ, which did eliminate the virus, I can believe that an even stricter lockdown would be even more effective. Australia, same thing. From 700 cases a day in August to about 9 a day now, and those are imported cases, not community transmissions. 

So "How" the virus spreads is pretty well understood. Therefore methods of controlling it are also pretty much proven. And yes it takes some fairly drastic measures, either authoritarian Govt OR a well informed and co-operative population. (But that's veering back into the politics of the Pandemic, and this isn't the thread for that)

[alan gage]

The rest of the world and various counties in the states have shown that they do make a difference. We have chosen to politicize this which is a shame. We are number one in the world for a reason, that is the undeniable fact.

Show me the science or the studies to back those claims up.
From what I know and see, those are opinions and not facts

I had no idea if that was true or not either. But a quick Google search shows the US at the top of the list with 10+million total infections. India is in 2nd place with 8+ million. It drops off sharply after that with only 9 countries reporting over 1 million.
The US is close to the top of the list in infections per capita but it's not the worst. It does appear to be the worst country with a large population though at nearly 31,000 cases per 1 million people. The countries with higher infection rates appear to have much smaller populations as well as more population density. I'd think the smaller the population the more misleading this number becomes because of sample size.
Alan

[Gary_C]

The reason for the higher number of cases in the US is because we test more. Today I've heard that we are running over a million tests per day. The more you test the more cases you will find and I don't think any other country test as much. Is that a bad thing?

[alan gage]

The reason for the higher number of cases in the US is because we test more. Today I've heard that we are running over a million tests per day. The more you test the more cases you will find and I don't think any other country test as much. Is that a bad thing?

Where are the facts that we test more? Not saying it's not true but I'm not going to take it at face value.
India has run 115 million tests, which is almost the entire population of the US*. That would mean they tested way more than us but have found less.

*Edit - I had my US population numbers wrong. I was thinking 130 million but it's 330 million.

Alan

[Sedgehammer]

These are facts that I've posted

No they aren't, or they are taken out of context.

NO mask will 100% protect you because the virus could enter via your eyes, or be on your hands and transfer when you take your mask off. But even simple masks Reduce the amount of virus an infected person sprays out into the surrounding air. Less virus particles floating in the air = less chance of the people nearby being infected. That has been shown to be a fact, and there is good evidence that even if you are infected, a lower initial infection load can lead to a milder case, and a milder case means less chances of you infecting others (especially if you are still wearing that mask)

So thinking "I'm wearing a mask, so I'm safe" is 100% untrue.  That's NOT the same as "Everyone wearing a mask cuts down the rate of transmission".

China's numbers? OK you might not believe them, but your belief doesn't make it a fact, and I tend to think they are fairly accurate. China is now "open for business" pretty much as usual. Extended family have returned from work there, and the general population aren't worried about transmission in the community, This is only possible because the Chinese Govt CAN and WILL close down an entire city or province to control the virus. As in the army sets up road blocks and patrols the streets, airports are shut down, no trains etc. When they roll out testing stations, they will test a whole city or province in a week. Stuff that a Western country wouldn't even consider doing, but is ruthlessly effective for disease control.

Having experienced an effective lockdown here in NZ, which did eliminate the virus, I can believe that an even stricter lockdown would be even more effective. Australia, same thing. From 700 cases a day in August to about 9 a day now, and those are imported cases, not community transmissions.

So "How" the virus spreads is pretty well understood. Therefore methods of controlling it are also pretty much proven. And yes it takes some fairly drastic measures, either authoritarian Govt OR a well informed and co-operative population. (But that's veering back into the politics of the Pandemic, and this isn't the thread for that)

We were discussing masks, not over all virus reducing transmission.

A mask works by restricting what comes out. A clothe mask like posted does extremely little in this regard on several levels. One as far as the virus goes the material is nowhere near dense enough. It's like spitting through a chain link fence and expecting it to stop the spit. Does it catch some, yeah, a little. The other area where they fail is they are NOT sealed anywhere near tight. The picture I showed clearly shows this. if that is from a smoker that has the virus and you smell that smoke, what, somehow magically you're not breathing it in? That cannot be argued.

What stopped it in NZ was quarantining the sick.

[Sedgehammer]

The reason for the higher number of cases in the US is because we test more. Today I've heard that we are running over a million tests per day. The more you test the more cases you will find and I don't think any other country test as much. Is that a bad thing?

Where are the facts that we test more? Not saying it's not true but I'm not going to take it at face value.
India has run 115 million tests, which is almost the entire population of the US. That would mean they tested way more than us but have found less.
Alan

This shows we are doing about 1.2+ million per day.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

[snobdds]

The reason for the higher number of cases in the US is because we test more. Today I've heard that we are running over a million tests per day. The more you test the more cases you will find and I don't think any other country test as much. Is that a bad thing?

Where are the facts that we test more? Not saying it's not true but I'm not going to take it at face value.
India has run 115 million tests, which is almost the entire population of the US. That would mean they tested way more than us but have found less.
Alan

The US has 330 million people.  115 million is equal to about 35% of the US population. 

[alan gage]

The reason for the higher number of cases in the US is because we test more. Today I've heard that we are running over a million tests per day. The more you test the more cases you will find and I don't think any other country test as much. Is that a bad thing?

Where are the facts that we test more? Not saying it's not true but I'm not going to take it at face value.
India has run 115 million tests, which is almost the entire population of the US. That would mean they tested way more than us but have found less.
Alan

The US has 330 million people.  115 million is equal to about 35% of the US population.

Thank you for catching that. I'd looked up populations for a few countries (including the US) and had 130 instead of 330 stuck in my head. Will add a footer to my post.
Alan

[Gary_C]

India has run 115 million tests, which is almost the entire population of the US. That would mean they tested way more than us but have found less.
Alan

According to the latest US Census data, the US population was over 330 million. 

This is an exercise in futility. What absolute difference does it make if the US has found more cases than any other country? 

Testing is NOT a cure but can only be used as a tool to mitigate the spread. 

[alan gage]

The reason for the higher number of cases in the US is because we test more. Today I've heard that we are running over a million tests per day. The more you test the more cases you will find and I don't think any other country test as much. Is that a bad thing?

Where are the facts that we test more? Not saying it's not true but I'm not going to take it at face value.
India has run 115 million tests, which is almost the entire population of the US. That would mean they tested way more than us but have found less.
Alan

This shows we are doing about 1.2+ million per day.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

I wasn't so much questioning our numbers but rather are we actually testing more than other countries? A couple charts down on this link shows number of tests per capita as well as percentage of positive. We certainly aren't at the top but are in a large cluster close to the top. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data

Alan

[Don P]

Well, that seems to have lit a fire.
Here's where I'm coming from. We are in trouble. The smart people say this will help. They never said it was a cure, it will help. In the middle of this we have people raising cain about their "rights". I was raised a little differently I guess. There are several responsibilities that come before my "rights", no I'm not talking about the constitution here I'm talking about the things that were drilled into me at home. My shoulders were not made big to carry my big mouth around whining about "me". Take care of those around me first. No I will not win every time, hold the door till everyone gets out, make sure everyone else gets home. This in my mind goes along with that thinking, if they tell me that wearing a mask is in the best interest of those around me so be it. If I doubt the efficacy of that advice put a sock in first for better filtration, then put on the mask. When everyone is on solid ground, we can talk about whether it worked. This bs in the middle of the fire is exactly that. I'm hopeful for the vaccine they talked about today.

[alan gage]

India has run 115 million tests, which is almost the entire population of the US. That would mean they tested way more than us but have found less.
Alan

According to the latest US Census data, the US population was over 330 million.

You're right on the population. I'd recently looked up populations for a few countries and got the numbers scrambled in my head. I've added a footer to my original post.

This is an exercise in futility. What absolute difference does it make if the US has found more cases than any other country?

Testing is NOT a cure but can only be used as a tool to mitigate the spread.

I don't know that it's an exercise in futility. If the US is really doing as bad as the numbers say, and if some countries have done better, then we should be looking at what they did differently than us. That doesn't mean what worked for Country A will also work for Country B but admitting there's a problem is the first step in solving it.

I'm really not trying to pick a fight or be argumentative. I don't get very worked up about Covid or politics and don't have an axe to grind.

This started with someone making the claim that the US has the worst numbers in the world with a couple people, you being one of them, claiming that wasn't true and asking for data to back it up. I've heard it both ways and didn't know so I looked it up and supplied the data I'd found, which indicated a case could be made the US did have the worst numbers, especially when compared to other large countries.

Then you said the reason for the higher numbers was because we tested more, which means we found more. But you didn't supply any data to back that up and I didn't know if it was true or not. When I looked I found that wasn't true either.

Now what should we do about it? I don't have a clue. So I'll listen to the recommendations made by the people who should know the most about it, err on the side of caution,  apply them as best I can, and take things as they come.
Alan