Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[kantuckid]

For the record, my student dentist is 25 and neither smug nor a non mask wearer in his private life or the dental lab.
 My KY newspaper is in a university town and today it said that police were being called to disperse several large parties of students, some said to be 60 plus people. I suppose those same students see bars and restaurants with a similar number involved and continue with their lives. I can visualize some callers about gatherings being the same folks who call in fireworks. 
Anecdotal but i see lots of middle age people w/o a mask in retail but in medical waiting rooms most all seem to wear one. Some are seniors in walmart for that matter, not real uncommon. 

[Real1shepherd]

Not saying all 19-25yr olds are smug and non-mask wearing....but enough are that they're spreading COVID. Without mass testing(and I'm not talking about some 'forced' method as in what FEMA could do), you're never going to know who's carrying the virus. That's the scary part, that and assuming you are invincible.

We lead the world in cases because there is an attitude about COVID here and unfounded advice is rampant. You can make up whatever you want about COVID but the virus will follow it's own path until we get a handle on it and we're far from it right now.

Kevin

[doc henderson]

I am only responsible for my actions, and especially how it affects other.  some drink and drive and wont give up keys.  all good until a family is killed on the highway.  you can make dumb mistakes, up until it affects others.  we all have  a responsibility.  if someone is trapped in a burning car, do you try to help get them out, or stand back out of harms way.  I just did an impromptu 4 hours in the ED as every room is full and 6 folks in the waiting room.  we got caught up.  all the mitigation is to limit the rate of spread.  Quarantine is to slow the spread by those who have it, and to protect those vulnerable.  we are on the brink of being overrun by shear numbers.  we are often this busy after 2 or 5 in the after noon.  this started at 9 am.  so so it for the healthcare folks.  no lunch in site so we ordered takeout sandwiches.  over 30 nurses out with covid so staffing is an issue.  min. visitors allowed in the hospital.  Mitigation is to slow it to the point that we can care for those who are sick and dying.  read my saying at the bottom of every one of my threads.  It is easy to be great when things are easy.  We now need to be great when things are hard.  

[Sedgehammer]

Here when we got out we see mostly middle aged w/o masks. Many of the younger crowd even wears masks outside...... At walmart, about half have them on

@Real1shepard Sweden is 18th in the world in deaths per million. Lower than many in europe and they didn't ruin their economy, nor are they having a second wave like most of europe is having.

Total case count doesn't really matter, it's deaths per. While true, the more cases you have, the more deaths you'll likely suffer. Many countries don't hardly test, so there's no telling what their total numbers are or what their deaths per are for that matter either. 

[Sedgehammer]

I am only responsible for my actions, and especially how it affects other.  some drink and drive and wont give up keys.  all good until a family is killed on the highway.  you can make dumb mistakes, up until it affects others.  we all have  a responsibility.  if someone is trapped in a burning car, do you try to help get them out, or stand back out of harms way.  I just did an impromptu 4 hours in the ED as every room is full and 6 folks in the waiting room.  we got caught up.  all the mitigation is to limit the rate of spread.  Quarantine is to slow the spread by those who have it, and to protect those vulnerable.  we are on the brink of being overrun by shear numbers.  we are often this busy after 2 or 5 in the after noon.  this started at 9 am.  so so it for the healthcare folks.  no lunch in site so we ordered takeout sandwiches.  over 30 nurses out with covid so staffing is an issue.  min. visitors allowed in the hospital.  Mitigation is to slow it to the point that we can care for those who are sick and dying.  read my saying at the bottom of every one of my threads.  It is easy to be great when things are easy.  We now need to be great when things are hard.  

Hang in there Doc! 

Cases here also going up, but not rapidly so. It's just steady growth with compounding interest. Those late to the party like yourself there are likely to be hit the hardest. There's no localized herd.

[doc henderson]

we either get a vaccine, or we will all eventually have it.  or enough have had it that it cannot spread.  It is interesting about non-vaccers, as the live virus vaccines given to other kids, can be transmitted to kids without the vaccine.  so the non-vaccer kids are getting the immunization virus from kids at school, shedding the virus after immunization.  that is true herd immunity.  

[Larry]

Had my annual appointment with my pulmonary Dr. this morning for copd.  He said plenty of beds, and equipment, but no nurses to take care of the beds.

[Real1shepherd]

I don't think that's accurate....as far as I know all the regular vaccines given to kids are killed viruses.

@Sedgehammer I didn't say Sweden had a huge death toll number higher than anyone else for trying herd immunity. I said it was a mistake to try for herd immunity without a vaccine. Their government officials have publicly admitted that they made this mistake early on.

Until we have a vaccine, testing and knowledge of people positive and who they've exposed will be the only things to work. It's pretty simple CDC and WHO protocol unless you think they're all conspirators and whatever.

I'll go with the science every time over hearsay and Internet barons and blogs.  

Kevin

[Gearbox]

In Minnesota we are breaking records every day . I live in the north and there are lots of Deer camps with 10 or more non family members . We are staying home until the numbers fall . I am just going to the woods every day .

[doc henderson]

Attenuated vaccine - Wikipedia

[Real1shepherd]

I stand corrected. But.....show me the scientific data on kids being vaccinated playing and being with kids that are not and those kids receiving herd immunity second hand. That sounds like spook claims from the 'no vaccine for my kids' crowd.

Kevin

[doc henderson]

it has been proven, and known, but I cannot site a study as I learned this in my pediatric residency in Albany NY,  finish and in practice 1994.  If you read the Wikipedia stuff, this is the easiest to produce.  it can revert but gives long lasting immunity.  for those that refuse to get a flu shot cause they get the flu, it means that had a good immune response, and in fact the muscle aches etcetera, mimics the illness without all the danger of actually getting the disease.  so it's good if you feel cruddy after.  It is your own immune system that attacks say heart muscle cells and causes cardiomyopathy, from an illness and occasionally after a vaccine.  not the actual virus.  if you read say the link to oral polio vaccine, it was fraught with all kinds of misinformation.  could have saved thousands of lives, but had a few deaths and people chose no vaccine.  These vaccines are still being refined since the 50s.  this is why it is remarkable that we have now done this in 10 months.  so the kids actually get the virus in there systems, and it is shed and transmitted to all those around them like the common cold.  this is what most pediatricians refer to as herd immunity.  this is why some vaccines require kids not to be around elderly patients with cancer and chemo excreta.

[Ianab]

Sweden is 18th in the world in deaths per million. Lower than many in europe and they didn't ruin their economy, nor are they having a second wave like most of europe is having.

Best double check there. Sweden is experiencing a classic larger 2nd wave, same as most of the Nth Hemisphere. Reported deaths haven't ramped up there much yet, but that tends to lag a month or so behind the infections. It's also possible that more younger people are catching it, as the older and other vulnerable folks are taking more precautions? But that still affects the economy as they aren't eating out, going on holiday etc. Sweden didn't enforce any strict lockdown, but that's not the same as the population taking steps to reduce the infections. Possibly enough to suppress the virus through the summer, but as the weather cools off, they spend more time inside, and the infections increase.

Sweden Coronavirus: 166,707 Cases and 6,082 Deaths - Worldometer

So they certainly haven't achieved "herd immunity", and their economy has taken a hit in much the same way as everyone else. Best (or least worst) economic outcomes have been in countries that have successfully controlled the virus (and are then able to get out of restrictions). 

Sweden's GDP is down about 4.2% for the year, similar to the US @4.7. 
Sth Korea is only down 1.9%, Taiwan is no change, and Vietnam is UP by 1.6%. 
NZ has taken a -6.1% hit, but mostly due to the lack of tourist business, which is dead at the moment, no matter what we do here. 
Average for advanced economies is -5.8%

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

[Gary_C]

Currently the 19-25yr olds are spreading COVID like wildfire to their grandparents and to people over 65. I'm in that age group and would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned. They're usually asymptomatic and don't really care about masks and sheltering. It's their 'right' to spread the disease....just ask them.

 Just because many of you think this is a joke and you're going to survive anything like Trump did without reasonable precautions, that's false wisdom and Fool's Paradise. And at the very least, it's not very brotherly.  

Kevin

Kevin, I'm not sure where you get your facts but I'd like to see where this opinion originates because it does not fit very well here.

[Gary_C]

I'll go with the science every time over hearsay and Internet barons and blogs.  

Kevin

So show us the science and less of the other. 

[Walnut Beast]

Currently the 19-25yr olds are spreading COVID like wildfire to their grandparents and to people over 65. I'm in that age group and would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned. They're usually asymptomatic and don't really care about masks and sheltering. It's their 'right' to spread the disease....just ask them.

Just because many of you think this is a joke and you're going to survive anything like Trump did without reasonable precautions, that's false wisdom and Fool's Paradise. And at the very least, it's not very brotherly.  

Kevin

Kevin, I'm not sure where you get your facts but I'd like to see where this opinion originates because it does not fit very well here.

I don't think you need to point out and school us about Trump. Do you work for CNN 😂

[kantuckid]

Thanks walnut, I managed to avoid that potus part. ;D 
Speaking of vaccines and Covid-19 origins and animals- Just google "killing minks NYT's, etc." and you'll see plenty.
Yesterday the NYT's had an article about Denmark where they're killing 15 million Minks as they are a covid vector. In reading the article it says that mink and maybe ferrets & weasels carry the virus to humans so a major industry and their animals is being wiped out.
 I find that just like here, I learn from reading others opinions and looked at the end of that article for letters to the editor and there was only one! NYT's get thousands at times before they cut it off and not uncommon to read the words of world renowned people in them. This one guy was obviously Chinese based on his name and comments. He went on to explain that the Chinese communist party had thrown us a ringer (lie) when they lead us to bats as we've all seen before in the news. Seems that they were actually "playing with other animals" (my words) as it were and this one guy knew about it. 
What a world huh? 
Covid's heating up all around us right now @ over 8% yesterday. Interesting that certain school districts seem to have managed covid better than others but who really knows?  

[nativewolf]

I am very very disappointed in the ad hominem attacks on @Real1shepherd .  
He presented 2 facts, young people are spreading virus, the president gets special care.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/who-warns-young-people-are-emerging-as-main-spreaders-of-the-coronavirus/2020/08/18/1822ee92-e18f-11ea-b69b-64f7b0477ed4_story.html%3foutputType=amp

And I feel there is no need for any links to the second fact, of course he gets special care , he is the freaking president.  

The ad hominem attack on Kevin are a poor reflection of a great forum full of diversity from around the world united by our love and interest in all things forestry related.  What does any posters political belief have to do with facts on epidemics or medical care?  None

Just so you know I consider cnn as credible  as other news sources; if you are watching the news, not opinion segments, that most broadcasts are factual- they spend a lot of energy getting facts right.  Some opinion segments are presented as news and are not.  

[Sedgehammer]

Sweden is 18th in the world in deaths per million. Lower than many in europe and they didn't ruin their economy, nor are they having a second wave like most of europe is having.

Best double check there. Sweden is experiencing a classic larger 2nd wave, same as most of the Nth Hemisphere. Reported deaths haven't ramped up there much yet, but that tends to lag a month or so behind the infections. It's also possible that more younger people are catching it, as the older and other vulnerable folks are taking more precautions? But that still affects the economy as they aren't eating out, going on holiday etc. Sweden didn't enforce any strict lockdown, but that's not the same as the population taking steps to reduce the infections. Possibly enough to suppress the virus through the summer, but as the weather cools off, they spend more time inside, and the infections increase.

Sweden Coronavirus: 166,707 Cases and 6,082 Deaths - Worldometer

So they certainly haven't achieved "herd immunity", and their economy has taken a hit in much the same way as everyone else. Best (or least worst) economic outcomes have been in countries that have successfully controlled the virus (and are then able to get out of restrictions).

Sweden's GDP is down about 4.2% for the year, similar to the US @4.7.
Sth Korea is only down 1.9%, Taiwan is no change, and Vietnam is UP by 1.6%.
NZ has taken a -6.1% hit, but mostly due to the lack of tourist business, which is dead at the moment, no matter what we do here.
Average for advanced economies is -5.8%

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

I can site several articles where Sweden officials are saying there isn't a second wave, but yes, numbers are increasing, just not like those countries that are exploding. Also if it is being driven by the young, deaths will hardly follow.

I never said they had herd, however they have a higher incidence of it.

Young people getting it is not really a concern, as the mortality rate is lower than the flu.

Elderly people locking down should be encouraged. Under 60 and healthy not so much.

As to their economy. There's a difference believe it or not if people and businesses choose to shut down for a time vs being forced to shut down and not be able to reopen. I can site several articles on it as well.

Here's am article from JP Morgan that finds lockdowns offer no benefit. There are some good numbers in it.

[kantuckid]

My newspaper today lists the businesses where they've been fined by the city/county health depts enforcement of 670 recent (mostly) no mask complaints. Major companies like grocery chains, Walmart and gas stations are paying $50 fines. 
 If I worked for $10-15 hourly I'd let em go too! And I'd certainly not call out an employee over that situation. Sure beats becoming an ER client?

Other shoppers often glare at you when you walk in with a mask on, when they don't and why become statistic over someone else's unwillingness to follow the guvs mandates?
 
Likewise I mostly don't fault the businesses for allowing the few to not be stopped at the door. It's a volatile situation! and time to suck it up. 
 
JP Morgan-the place where they count our money? :D No shortage of "experts" on viruses these days? And I thought they studied economics to work there? 

[Sedgehammer]

@kantuckid They study numbers. They have some very excellent quants

[Don P]

Some of this I run into at work frequently. The client is wanting to gripe about the bush the excavator ran over 2 weeks ago and I'm looking ahead towards the roofing contractor. I try to politely tell them that they need to get out ahead of the ball. My worry here is we crossed 100,000/day last week and 140,000/day this week. We are exploding. The young are getting ready to go home for the holidays. The virus has burned through all seasons somewhere in the world. We are moving indoors for the winter. Realistically the vaccine will not get to most of us till spring or summer. 

I was in 4 businesses yesterday, I saw less than half a dozen masks. We have to get ourselves through this period. I've been fighting a cold that we've passed around throughout my little bubble so it shows I'm not in good compliance either. My wife was on a state zoom meeting for people in her position. She got busted for not being tested with a "cold" so just had the dipstick test and has to sit out till the results come back.

What I'm getting to here is we need to cut the chatter, grab our bootstraps and do the right thing if we are going to get this under control. Stay in the woods if you can, wear a mask if you can't, wash your hands, stay away from people if you can, tamp this thing down.

[kantuckid]

@kantuckid They study numbers. They have some very excellent quants

FWIW, I meant that in a light hearted way. Covid's a tough nut and was trying for some chuckles. 
Fact is I'm in a high risk group and we take covid very seriously at my house. If not for SKYPE we'd not see our grandkids at all as our sons also take covid seriously too and holidays are a time when many people flock to our home-not this year.  :'(
I honestly feel for college kids, all kids really. Testosterone doesn't shut off even in a pandemic and what with masks on who knows who they're even looking at now days? Plus I cannot understand when people talk! Mush mouth gets old. 
We humans rely on eyes, talk and facial expressions and much is now missing from our meager interactions.
 

[kantuckid]

Staying in the woods got my finger mashed, on that one?  :D

[Claybraker]

Minor nit pick on the 18-25 range. Current guidance from the WHCTF is to increase proactive testing among 18-40. Increased testing has always been strongly encouraged. That age range is more specific than the guidance has been in the past.

A source I follow that's really more Georgia focused, because Dr Schmidkte lived here until she and her family moved to Kansas this summer.

Here's the readers digest condensed version. "They are really emphasizing that Georgia needs to do proactive surveillance testing, specifically among 18-40 year olds, in red and orange counties. The 18-40 year old thing is important because that age group is the main source of our cases and also the age group that might be more likely to experience mild, if any, symptoms with coronavirus."

The Daily Digest, 11Nov2020 - Georgia COVID-19 Updates