Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[Sedgehammer]

My 30 yr old son caught it. Said it felt like a slight head cold for a couple days. His mother 53 yrs (my x) caught it also, she ran a slight temp for a few days. Both over it now.

[Sedgehammer]

Study comparing strict lock downs compared with no lock downs in US Marine Corp study shows higher spread amongst lock down participats vs non lock down participats.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717

[Ianab]

I dont think that article says what you think it says....

That wasn't a lock down. They attended classes, shared bathrooms and ate in a mess hall together. Sounds more like a cruise ship on land.... If you read more in depth the 2 groups were treated the same, just one was tested regularly, and the other group only at the end of the period. Why was there a difference in numbers? With that size study it could be down to luck. 2 initially infected people in the study group, vs only one in the other group? 

If you confine a big bunch of people together, the virus is going to spread among them if even one has the virus. That's been shown countless times, so no surprises there.

I expect the measures they took slowed the spread, and being young people, none got seriously sick. But if you are eating in a shared mess, you can't call that a "lock down". 

[Sedgehammer]

I dont think that article says what you think it says....

That wasn't a lock down. They attended classes, shared bathrooms and ate in a mess hall together. Sounds more like a cruise ship on land.... If you read more in depth the 2 groups were treated the same, just one was tested regularly, and the other group only at the end of the period. Why was there a difference in numbers? With that size study it could be down to luck. 2 initially infected people in the study group, vs only one in the other group?

If you confine a big bunch of people together, the virus is going to spread among them if even one has the virus. That's been shown countless times, so no surprises there.

I expect the measures they took slowed the spread, and being young people, none got seriously sick. But if you are eating in a shared mess, you can't call that a "lock down".

I didn't do the study.

You ate with your family when you were locked down, correct? Size of doesn't necessarily determine if it's a lock down or not. All participants were NOT allowed to leave. Plus your missing the gest of it. Those strict conditions didn't result in slowing it down compared to those that didn't participate. Then look at new York, during their lockdown, besides those that were forced to die in old folks home, the majority of cases came from home.

[doc henderson]

In a true lock down, like they could do in a dictator ship, people who got it, could only spread it to they household so it stopped there.  our cat is so far out of the bag, that contact tracing is no longer a thing for the most part.  Prisons and nursing homes are hard hit.  that is a locked down crowd, but they got it from the essential workers, that went out into the world everyday.  so an infected person will put at risk only those people they are in close contact with.  as you shrink the number, then fewer are at risk from the one positive case.  you are literally changing the size of the exponent in the equation.  of course 1 remains 1 no matter the exponent.  but 2 to 2nd, 3rd,4th goes up quick.  When Lowes is a needed resource so they tell the workers they are essential...  I had a dollar store employee refuse to self quarantine after a test, as she worked at a "grocery store"  and they are considered essential.  she went on to tell me she was a single mom and did not get paid if she was off.  Freedom comes with great responsibility.  lets mitigate, just like fire or rodents,  keep the numbers down.  

[Sedgehammer]

In a true lock down, like they could do in a dictator ship, people who got it, could only spread it to they household so it stopped there.  our cat is so far out of the bag, that contact tracing is no longer a thing for the most part.  Prisons and nursing homes are hard hit.  that is a locked down crowd, but they got it from the essential workers, that went out into the world everyday.  so an infected person will put at risk only those people they are in close contact with.  as you shrink the number, then fewer are at risk from the one positive case.  you are literally changing the size of the exponent in the equation.  of course 1 remains 1 no matter the exponent.  but 2 to 2nd, 3rd,4th goes up quick.  When Lowes is a needed resource so they tell the workers they are essential...  I had a dollar store employee refuse to self quarantine after a test, as she worked at a "grocery store"  and they are considered essential.  she went on to tell me she was a single mom and did not get paid if she was off.  Freedom comes with great responsibility.  lets mitigate, just like fire or rodents,  keep the numbers down.  

I agree doc. If you're elderly or have comorbidities I think the greatest reasonable thing one can do is social distance when one is out and about. Second wood be to wear a tight fitting mask if you can't or do both.

[doc henderson]

most of the virus enters via our mouth and nose, so the old and frail need to quarantine, and only expose themselves to a few people such as family, bringing needed food and supplies.  cause they are at high risk of death if they get it.  That family needs to try to not get it, and spread it to grandma.  Everyone else need to use common sense wearing face covering/masks, and or socially distancing, and using hand sanitizing stuff.  an occasional beer in moderation and consumed responsibly (opinion)  does not hurt.  My observation is most employees that got it, got is outside the ED. possibly/prob. due to the fact hand sanitizer and masks are required.  using antibody treatment now, and antiviral in the hospital, and a vaccine around the corner.  in 10 years we will know the facts.  

[Sedgehammer]

I read that this spring if hospitalized there was 8% mortality rate. This summer was down to 2% and now is about .8%. 

my daughter who is a respiratory therapist for the 2nd largest hospital in the city said the campus that was closed down last summer and was reopened this spring for covid is now adding beds. They added 8 more last week. Vast majority are minorities. Many hispanics she said. If they get really sick they are transferred back to the main hospital. She said that not as many deaths as before, but it just taxes hospital capabilities so hard, as it takes people so long to recover typically once they are in the hospital. some staffing issues, but a fair number of staff caught it earlier, so not as bad as other places. 

[doc henderson]

yes mortality down due to experience treating the viral complications, and more testing, capturing the asymptomatic +.  a bigger N.  once on a vent, it is about 15%.  not hopeless, but scary.  most are above 80s.  our youngest was early 50s with mean of 78 years old of those who died.

[doc henderson]

a few have asked questions in PMs which is fine.  but the good questions I will answer for the group, as i am sure others have the same.  The question was regarding immunity.  the immune system is complex as I am sure you all appreciate.  some antibodies are protective and some are not.  so early on a vaccine may show a specific response to the antigen, by make a correlating antibody.  basically a lock and key.  so an antibody to the foot process that allows the virus to attach to human cells, insert its dna/rna to reproduce, can stop further spread by covering the attachment site.  If an antibody is produced to attach to a non vital chunk of the virus, it may not be protective.  months after an infection, the levels drop to potentially undetectable, but usually have memory cells that are prepared to ramp up, if the infection is encountered again.  If the virus changes rapidly (mutates)  the next round may not be recognized by the antibody and memory cells, and it is like a novel infection.  this is why we choose about 3 antigens each year for the flu shot, anticipating what is coming to the best of our ability.  if we miss, then we have a big flu season.  the antibodies after covid infection are decreasing after 3 to 4 months but may have memory for the next time.  the prison is seeing a few reinfections.  over half the population has had it.  That is another question, is if you get antibodies in a drug, does it block you developing your own immunity.  we will know lots more in about 10 years!

[doc henderson]

so the extreme herd example is if we all got it on the same day,  it would be gone after a month.  but we would have lost 45 million folks (total guess and may be exaggerated)since there would not be anyone to care for the sick, or do research and develop drugs.  you would either live or die based on nature.  as sit is, it trickles along, and we have resources and time to learn from our mistakes and success.  and here we are.

[Ianab]

Size of doesn't necessarily determine if it's a lock down or not. All participants were NOT allowed to leave. Plus your missing the gest of it. Those strict conditions didn't result in slowing it down compared to those that didn't participate.

You are still misreading. That WAS NOT a lockdown / isolation scenario, and both groups took the same basic precautions. 

You had a large group of people living and working together. Sure they took some extra precautions, which I suspect were not enough to stop the spread. The Cadets that were not in the study took the same precautions, they didn't "carry on as normal", so they can't even be considered a control group. 

If you lock down with ONLY family or another small group, then the virus can only spread in that "bubble". and no further. Then no one else gets infected and the outbreak dies down. Difficult to do in a military situation I admit.  Further down in the report it goes into how they did genetic sequencing to confirm the A - B - C etc chain of transmission, and were able to isolate the likely means of transmission. .   

Early on they decided that they would quarantine a cruise ship in Japan as there were some Covid cases on board. They tried taking all the precautions they could, like they did in the Marine cadet case, but of course LOTS of passengers and crew still got sick and some died. Because it was impossible to isolate people enough in that situation. 

The thing is, you are telling us something "can't possibly work", when we have effectively done it, twice, and kept other small outbreaks contained via tracing and isolating a small number of cases. It hasn't worked in the US because it hasn't actually been done. (I know, there are reasons) Partial lock downs only temporarily slow the spread (which is at lea

The control measures worked here in NZ (and Australia) because the people were given clear and accurate information by the Govt. We knew why we were locking down, and just got on with it. 

[Sedgehammer]

We've already had this discussion. If you're of limited exposure, in your case travel of infected, yeah, can be done. If you've had lots of travel of infected, nope, nit even close. It was to replicate a lock down found here. Where you still need to have 'some' limited exposure to live and they took as many precautions as could be done, besides quarantine. 

[Bill]

Speaking above my pay grade here so I may not have this exactly right . . .

Neat book about epidemics talked about " diseases " that could or could not make the jump to humans from mammals/birds . What that meant was that ( some ) illnesses could not infect humans while others could. The problem becomes when an illness that resided ( " harbored " ) in birds/mammals - think like pigs/bats - mutated they become illnesses in humans. And there is another line of thinking that humans can ( sometimes ) infect  mammals and birds which then can " harbor " the illness till it can be re-transmitted/mutated to susceptible humans  in the future .

This back and forth between species is a major reason all prior attempts to declare ( all ) plagues conquered have failed  . 

As time passes we continue to learn to cure some and deal with others .

Speaking in generalities the body can frequently defeat viruses ( common cold ) and with antibiotics deal with many bacterial infections . But it takes time - and we are still afflicted with the common cold after all  and which some consider a distant cousin of cv-19 .

As DocH says we'll know a lot in 10 years .

Maybe it 'll just take a while for our bodies ( with the help of vaccines/cures ? ) to adapt  to cv-19 like it has with the common cold  .

[doc henderson]

well put Bill.

[doc henderson]

I think lockdown means quarantine, but for a group.  if some are coming and going, then the whole group gets infected.  so If they kept them locked down, the whole group would get it, but not spread it to others.  we do not tolerate rules as well in the US.  This is why we are not the greatest generation.  for Ebola, you do not leave the room, and if sick prob. not the bed until you are dead or transported.  then people in shite coveralls will carry you out.  thank God this is not Ebola.  so the idea is for a family of four, they would not get it or they would all get it, but not spread it to other groups or families.  

[kantuckid]

Avoiding the politics of the current increase in covid positives, there will be some "interesting shutdowns" very soon, as in today in my state!

Fact:  This coinciding with a time when people are congregating the most over the holidays.

Fact:Today in KY there are 78,000 people who applied for un-employment back in the spring and (April is the marking point I think) who have not gotten one red cent to date. Many say on our evening news that they get hung up on and have never talked to a representative even one time as yet over the seven months of no jobs.  
It's very hard to live on zilch!

Fact: Meanwhile the media is beating this covid thing into a frenzy along with others.
Lots of negative talk surround what seems to be, hopefully, a Godsend in the various vaccines soon to be in use.  
Keeping a cool, calm, reasonable approach will continue to be a challenge for certain.

 The Greatest Generation- raised me, mentored me, schooled me, trained me and hired me. They were more trusting, more patient, less self-centered and overall they persevered when things like gvmnt handouts and so-called brought on solutions were less likely. 

Nice list of how to keep the covid critter under wraps doc!

[Sedgehammer]

I think lockdown means quarantine, but for a group.  if some are coming and going, then the whole group gets infected.  so If they kept them locked down, the whole group would get it, but not spread it to others.  we do not tolerate rules as well in the US.  This is why we are not the greatest generation.  for Ebola, you do not leave the room, and if sick prob. not the bed until you are dead or transported.  then people in shite coveralls will carry you out.  thank God this is not Ebola.  so the idea is for a family of four, they would not get it or they would all get it, but not spread it to other groups or families.  

Yup, quarantine is what they called it.
You know the history of the Spanish flu and what wasn't done here very well? We've never followed 'rules' very well here, that's why we're Americans. Obedient cultures rarely excel. 

[alan gage]

It's picking up around here again. Our county of under 10k is up to 23 deaths.

My grandmother (91) meets with a small group of old ladies every Monday morning. She's said all along she will not give this up. I understand.
Last Wednesday one of those old ladies was diagnosed with Covid and on Friday she died. So far Grandma just has a bit of a sore throat and light cough. Was tested a couple days ago but results aren't back yet.

A friend's son tested positive on Monday after getting sick over the weekend. He'd been staying with his father that week. Turns out his father had been sick all week but refuses to get tested. I saw the father last Thursday walking into the convenience store with no mask.

Manager of our local Subway got sick and refused to get tested but it finally prompted to staff to wear masks. Not asking customers too though.

One of the county supervisors got sick but refused testing.

It's getting to be a pretty common theme.

Alan

[Sedgehammer]

It's picking up around here again. Our county of under 10k is up to 23 deaths.

My grandmother (91) meets with a small group of old ladies every Monday morning. She's said all along she will not give this up. I understand.
Last Wednesday one of those old ladies was diagnosed with Covid and on Friday she died. So far Grandma just has a bit of a sore throat and light cough. Was tested a couple days ago but results aren't back yet.

A friend's son tested positive on Monday after getting sick over the weekend. He'd been staying with his father that week. Turns out his father had been sick all week but refuses to get tested. I saw the father last Thursday walking into the convenience store with no mask.

Manager of our local Subway got sick and refused to get tested but it finally prompted to staff to wear masks. Not asking customers too though.

One of the county supervisors got sick but refused testing.

It's getting to be a pretty common theme.

Alan

The last portion is because people are tired of the lockdowns. They were told for 15 days, then that got extended for 2 weeks, then it got extended all summer in many places and is still here now. Those under 65 and healthy don't need any lockdowns. Those older shouldn't be going anywhere really, but still up to them or should be. 

[Sedgehammer]

Mask study from Denmark that has been held up for several months. While not the gold standard of testing, is was fairly robust. authors site where it's weak.  it finds no statistical advantage to wearing a mask. 

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

[Ianab]

This article is about how difficult it actually is to work out what control measures actually work. 

It's about a statistical analysis of various countries, comparing what measures were in place, vs how the virus spreading. Comparing the "R" number. That let them come up with some numbers about what what actually worked, vs what was just window dressing. 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/trying-to-figure-out-which-policies-control-the-pandemic-best/

The actual study is linked with all the numbers etc. 

They used several statistical methods, and they didn't all agree. but some control methods stood out as "effective" no matter what way you looked at the numbers. 

It seems that "Masks" didn't score well. I suspect that masks + no other controls isn't very effective. Where as any place that had masks + stay at home, then the masks didn't affect things, because other more effective measures were in place.  

[doc henderson]

In a really good study, all variables are well controlled except the difference between the test group, and the control group that we want to study.  ideally there are large numbers.  but it then becomes hard to control and account for confounding factors.  With corona, it is so new, and not enough test kits (all have different reliabilities)  we are basically making observations.  We would need to quarantine a thousand people.  and I mean in a room by themselves, with no other contact for several weeks, divide into groups of 500, put each group into a huge room with a known positive person with corona for a period of time.  one group with masks, and the other without.  then quarantine again for 2 weeks with no contact (food slid under a door or through a slot).  could also test if only the positive person wore a mask, and if only the rest of the group wore a mask.  retest everyone every 4 days or so.  good luck finding volunteers or even getting this past an ethics review.  prob. why it was done with military, as it became a mission and they were ordered to do so.

[doc henderson]

not available everywhere, but interesting, they are monitoring viral load in the sewer systems to access the amount in a community.  so if you think this is a bunch of crap... :D

[kantuckid]

Here are some covid-19 vaccine questions:

It's in todays news that of the number of Pfizer vaccinations available by end of year 2020 @ 50 million, they say half don't go to the USA (where we paid in advance for a vaccine).
We are told they go, as they logically should to front line healthcare workers and seniors.
Google tells me that there were ~ 40 million seniors in USA 2010 (would be more now) and ~ 18 million healthcare workers.
Obvious question is- Who gets the free shots first?  
Where do the other half of the Pfizer shots go that my younger family members won't get?
Who's in line for the Moderna shots?
Does Moderna have the same deal set up with the USA gvnmt?
I have some other questions in my mind but they (very heavily indeed) enter the realm of politics.