Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[Old Greenhorn]

  good training.  i thought only @Old Greenhorn would go down the "really" road.  

Well to be fair Doc, you only had 'Aniston' in their as a single word clue and I was pretty sure most folks didn't catch it.
 I know their instructors were top notch that came to us and all of them were on various DMAT teams (one got called for deployment during our classes for some unspoken assignment and left very quickly by chopper). They brought all their trailers up to our newly growing State DHS training facility at a former airport and the director their was my a paramedic who was my first EMS instructor (CFR). It was fairly intense and the instructors could joke around a lot but not with the subject matter. They pulled no punches except when the conversation or questions danced around classified activities and then they would change the subject. We did Mark II training, the full boat Decon with all the gear, backboard conveyors, tent, etc. MCI evolution with similar external stressors, bomb scene work, and a little active shooter. That's where I got invited to COBRA and also the bomb school (in NM?). Our state guts kept trying to get me to come back for the full boat active shooter training but local politics got in the way and they (the training center) said I couldn't carry a weapon. >:( My job was to stabilize them and get them out (and be shot at along the way).  :D

[doc henderson]

BOOM! :D :D :D

[nativewolf]

Why would law enforcement or military not be among the first recipients of a new corona virus vaccine?

From what I know of my time in the army and elsewhere (gov) I suspect they have their own separate  'vat' being cooked up, but 'we' won't be told about it until maybe later.

Seriously?  I have bridges to sell you in multiple states.   EVERYONE on base in masks Sedgehammer, everyone..if they are inside or outside within 6' and not engaged in combat trials.  Even outside in many circumstances.  EVERYONE.   Just thought you'd like to know.   My colonel & admiral relatives are in masks all day.   Spread on military bases is now subdued compared to general population.  Hmmmm.  The military responded after flubbing initial timelines by not enforcing masks, since then masks enforcement and infections and deaths plummeted.  Now despite being active & working closely they have lower infections and delta vs the normal population is increasing.  Why...they follow the CDC guidelines.  

So military loving but masks  hating people maybe should go read up on that.  Just saying.  I was happy to spend my time with the govt but boy..the military can screw up the simplest things, after screwing up initially the pentagon got it's act together quickly on Covid though, kudus to them.  If you love and respect the military encourage people to wear masks!
Special vat? You realize that these drugs side effects and effectiveness are based on rushed trials (military does not like this sort of thing) and they will more likely than not follow official guidance on rolling out vaccine to higher risk individuals only.  Once more trial data comes in and highest risk populations have vaccine then you'll see military roll it out service wide.  That will be well after high risks groups and for good reasons; they will be responsible for these servicemen and women for life and a rushed vaccine that later proves to have harmful side effects could be terrible for national security.  The pentagon is not going to spend billions in their own special trials with their own special vaccine that only delay things further.  No point in it.  The military is good at doing things slowly, the military vaccination programs that have worked were slow slow moving programs.  The cool thing about the military is that they test at scale across a pretty big population so they can actually see what impacts the vaccines have.   It is something that prevents respiratory illness, I did not get one for years after getting a giant needle in my tush.  Of course I was in high risks areas so my tush got shot up about once a month with various cocktails.  Still got typhoid and dengue.  

Re"first responders" :  many are not high risks while many high risk people such as nursing home nurses, etc are not first responders but are high risk.   The procedures on who gets vaccines are well thought through by scientist trying to control outbreaks.  

[Sedgehammer]

Why would law enforcement or military not be among the first recipients of a new corona virus vaccine?

From what I know of my time in the army and elsewhere (gov) I suspect they have their own separate  'vat' being cooked up, but 'we' won't be told about it until maybe later.

Seriously?  I have bridges to sell you in multiple states.   EVERYONE on base in masks Sedgehammer, everyone..if they are inside or outside within 6' and not engaged in combat trials.  Even outside in many circumstances.  EVERYONE.   Just thought you'd like to know.   My colonel & admiral relatives are in masks all day.   Spread on military bases is now subdued compared to general population.  Hmmmm.  The military responded after flubbing initial timelines by not enforcing masks, since then masks enforcement and infections and deaths plummeted.  Now despite being active & working closely they have lower infections and delta vs the normal population is increasing.  Why...they follow the CDC guidelines.  

So military loving but masks  hating people maybe should go read up on that.  Just saying.  I was happy to spend my time with the govt but boy..the military can screw up the simplest things, after screwing up initially the pentagon got it's act together quickly on Covid though, kudus to them.  If you love and respect the military encourage people to wear masks!
Special vat? You realize that these drugs side effects and effectiveness are based on rushed trials (military does not like this sort of thing) and they will more likely than not follow official guidance on rolling out vaccine to higher risk individuals only.  Once more trial data comes in and highest risk populations have vaccine then you'll see military roll it out service wide.  That will be well after high risks groups and for good reasons; they will be responsible for these servicemen and women for life and a rushed vaccine that later proves to have harmful side effects could be terrible for national security.  The pentagon is not going to spend billions in their own special trials with their own special vaccine that only delay things further.  No point in it.  The military is good at doing things slowly, the military vaccination programs that have worked were slow slow moving programs.  The cool thing about the military is that they test at scale across a pretty big population so they can actually see what impacts the vaccines have.   It is something that prevents respiratory illness, I did not get one for years after getting a giant needle in my tush.  Of course I was in high risks areas so my tush got shot up about once a month with various cocktails.  Still got typhoid and dengue.  

Re"first responders" :  many are not high risks while many high risk people such as nursing home nurses, etc are not first responders but are high risk.   The procedures on who gets vaccines are well thought through by scientist trying to control outbreaks.  

Sigh..... of course not.  They have separate contracts i suspect. If not for the entirety, for specialized for sure. 

[doc henderson]

On a serious note.  got a "not quite finished" text from my wife.  she had been called in twice this week to help out.  on overtime and that is a sin at WM for the pharmacists.  She was scheduled to be off until after thanksgiving.  My daughters BD  on the 23rd.  we are staying home and no guests.  she had just found out that her otherwise healthy 65 y/o about to retire friend and colleague died last night on the ventilator.  If you do not want to wear a mask, then stay home.  We have treated 2 assaults, that were young employees who ask the wrong people if they wanted a mask, and got punched in the face.  your house your rules.  so follow the rules, otherwise just stay at your own house.  and yes, that is my opinion.

[Sedgehammer]

Went to the dentist today. Me n me bride for a cleaning. The hygienist said the state told them they aren't shutting down, to power through it. Staff had the loose fitting masks on. No mandatory mask usage being enforced. 

On the Thanksgiving note. We will celebrate our family one here with family tomorrow after I get back from hunting in the morning and we will go to the tree farm to get our tree and take pictures. My 2 eldest daughters will be coming. My brother just left. We are going to friends for lunch and a different friends place for supper on Thanksgiving.

[doc henderson]

Be safe!  especially with people in your face.  Most of my dental folk have been wearing mask, glasses and gloves for years before covid.  Most medical professionals mandate it with or without a mandate.  Your house your rules.

[doc henderson]

health care people have little choice but to get close to people.  since the opioid crisis, pharmacists have to counsel new prescriptions and narcotics unless refused, direct with the patient.  locally they fill 700 scripts per day.  only about half the WM customers wear masks.  Makes you wonder where my wife's friend got it.

[Sedgehammer]

health care people have little choice but to get close to people.  since the opioid crisis, pharmacists have to counsel new prescriptions and narcotics unless refused, direct with the patient.  locally they fill 700 scripts per day.  only about half the WM customers wear masks.  Makes you wonder where my wife's friend got it.

Thanks doc! Since healthcare professionals have a 4x higher chance of getting it at work and their families 2x higher, were safer to go out......  now, those inviting us.......
Sister in law is a dentist, so we get it on both ends.

[Sedgehammer]

Interesting. Learning more bit by bit.

Up To 20% Of COVID-19 Infections Asymptomatic, Far Less Likely To Transmit Virus: Study

Until now, evidence suggested that up to half of COVID-19 patients are asymptomatic "silent spreaders" of the disease who were unwittingly contributing to outbreaks. Some estimates even pegged the rate of asymptomatic infections as high as 81%.

Now, new evidence suggests that just 17% of those infected with COVID-19 will experience no symptoms, according to Nature, citing a meta-analysis of 13 studies published last month which involved 21,708 people. What's more, asymptomatic individuals are 42% less likely to transmit the virus than those with symptoms.
The research, spearheaded by lead author Oyungerel Byambasuren of the Institute for Evidence-Based Healthcare at Bond University in Gold Coast, Australia, defined asymptomatic people as those who showed none of the key COVID-19 sysmptoms during the entire follow-up period. The authors only included studies which followed participants for at least seven days, as evidence suggests symptoms typically develop in 7-13 days (during which people are still contagious).

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One reason that scientists want to know how frequently people without symptoms transmit the virus is because these infections largely go undetected. Testing in most countries is targeted at those with symptoms.

As part of a large population study in Geneva, Switzerland, researchers modelled viral spread among people living together. In a manuscript posted on medRxiv this month², they report that the risk of an asymptomatic person passing the virus to others in their home is about one-quarter of the risk of transmission from a symptomatic person. -Nature

That said, the analysis acknowledges that while there is a lower risk of transmission among asymptomatics, they may still present a public health risk due to the fact that they are more likely to be out in the community vs. isolating at home, according to Switzerland-based infectious-disease specialist Andrew Azman of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, a co-author on the study.
"The actual public-health burden of this massive pool of interacting 'asymptomatics' in the community probably suggests that a sizeable portion of transmission events are from asymptomatic transmissions," he said.
Nature notes that other researchers disagree over the extent to which asymptomatic spread contributes to community transmission. " Byambasuren, the lead author, says that if the studies are correct that asymptomatic people are a low transmission risk, "these people are not the secret drivers of this pandemic," as they are "not coughing or sneezing as much" and are "probably not contaminating as much surfaces as other people."
So, while the 'silent spread' factor appears to be far less pronounced than previously thought, and the virus kills less than 1% of those infected under the age of 60, one still has approximately a 10% chance of becoming a "long hauler" - an infected person who essentially suffers from waves of flu symptoms for months on end. Is that worth shutting down the economy over?

[doc henderson]

yes, that is why I called my barber 83 y/o vet, not to worry, but I was not coming to get a haircut, cause I do not want to be responsible for his death.  so if you knew you had it would you just stay home?

[Sedgehammer]

yes, that is why I called my barber 83 y/o vet, not to worry, but I was not coming to get a haircut, cause I do not want to be responsible for his death.  so if you knew you had it would you just stay home?

Of course. We have stayed home 2 times from invites when me bride had a low grade temperature. They said we could come anyways, but ne bride said no. Our invitors all know where my wife and sister in law work, so they know any possible risks. Their houses, their rules i guess.

[doc henderson]

meta-analysis is great, but brings the limitations of the different studies, and to get a real number, you would have to test everyone in a group, to find the asymptomatic carriers.  more symptoms equals more infectiousness, but less being less, does not mean safe.  also time and contact seems to make a difference.  I frankly cannot believe I have not already had it, or maybe I have and do not know it.

[doc henderson]

yes.

[Sedgehammer]

meta-analysis is great, but brings the limitations of the different studies, and to get a real number, you would have to test everyone in a group, to find the asymptomatic carriers.  more symptoms equals more infectiousness, but less being less, does not mean safe.  also time and contact seems to make a difference.  I frankly cannot believe I have not already had it, or maybe I have and do not know it.

My wife says the same thing. The 3 closest to the patients haven't caught it, but the rest in the clinic have. Go figure. 

[doc henderson]

to clarify.  it is up to them if they invite you.  it is up to you if you go.  we are all responsible for how our actions affect others.  sounds like you have been safe as needed in the past.

[Sedgehammer]

yes, that is why I called my barber 83 y/o vet, not to worry, but I was not coming to get a haircut, cause I do not want to be responsible for his death.  so if you knew you had it would you just stay home?

That's about the same age as the barber i go to occasionally. Gives straight razor shaves also. He's still open. Said not to worry about it. He said he's lived a good life and he loves what he's doing, so he's not going to quit unless the Lord tells him he's quiting. I haven't gone in a while, prolly won't anymore anyways. Wife likes cutting mine, our boys and our daughters hair. Well, I'm not sure if she likes doing it or she likes saving the money...... but I sure do like the shave....

[Sedgehammer]

to clarify.  it is up to them if they invite you.  it is up to you if you go.  we are all responsible for how our actions affect others.  sounds like you have been safe as needed in the past.

Yup, thanks. While we (well, me especially) don't follow orders well, we'll surely not go if my wife feels there's a warranted concerne. 

[gspren]

On the news today I saw where Sweden says they made a mistake not initiating controls in the spring and they will now start.

[Sedgehammer]

On the news today I saw where Sweden says they made a mistake not initiating controls in the spring and they will now start.

You have a link?

Only thing I can find is they'll stop serving alcohol after 10:30. Like that will stop anything.

Sweden's death per million is 23rd. Below most of Europe.

Their cases per million is 45th. Well below most of Europe 

Doesn't seem they made a mistake. 

[firefighter ontheside]

meta-analysis is great, but brings the limitations of the different studies, and to get a real number, you would have to test everyone in a group, to find the asymptomatic carriers.  more symptoms equals more infectiousness, but less being less, does not mean safe.  also time and contact seems to make a difference.  I frankly cannot believe I have not already had it, or maybe I have and do not know it.

That's where I'm at and a lot of my cohorts here at the FD.  We've been exposed so many times.  Maybe I or we have already been asymptomatic and didn't know it.  Especially when you consider mine and many other's allergies in the spring and fall.  I take two allergy meds about 8 mos. of the year.

[firefighter ontheside]

Pfizer applied for emergency use today and they figure Moderna will be about a week behind that.  FDA is supposed to take about 3 weeks deciding to approve or not.  If approved, distribution is said to start immediately, but you can imagine how slow things will go, especially in the beginning.

[Ianab]

If approved, distribution is said to start immediately, but you can imagine how slow things will go, especially in the beginning

Article I read said Pfizer had X million doses already produced and ready to go once approval was given, so they can start sending it out immediately. And they expected to be able to produce ~1 billion doses over the course of 2021. But that's got to be distributed over the world, so there wont be enough to go around initially. I assume Moderna will be in a similar situation, so 2 billion combined is better than just 1 billion. 

But the vaccine being released wont cure the pandemic overnight. Probably well into next year before enough people get it (and the Nth Hemisphere summer suppresses the spread again). 

[Don P]

On the news today I saw where Sweden says they made a mistake not initiating controls in the spring and they will now start.

I heard an interview with one of their officials a few days ago saying basically the same thing.


Reuters are reporting that Sweden, whose unorthodox pandemic strategy placed it in the global spotlight, has registered 7,240 new coronavirus cases today. It reports that the increase compared with a previous high of 5,990 daily cases recorded earlier this month.
Sweden registered 66 new deaths, taking the total to 6,406, says Reuters. Sweden's death rate per capita is several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours but lower than some larger European countries.


The piece I heard also pointed out the differences in cultures as far as following medical directives. Finland and Norway on either side of Sweden have had 374 and 305 deaths respectively compared to Sweden's 6,406.

[firefighter ontheside]

Sounds like same article I read Ian.  Yeah, it will not be an off switch, but a step in the right direction.  Moderna and Pfizer are on track for that and others are probably not far behind.