Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[Sedgehammer]

On the news today I saw where Sweden says they made a mistake not initiating controls in the spring and they will now start.

I heard an interview with one of their officials a few days ago saying basically the same thing.


Reuters are reporting that Sweden, whose unorthodox pandemic strategy placed it in the global spotlight, has registered 7,240 new coronavirus cases today. It reports that the increase compared with a previous high of 5,990 daily cases recorded earlier this month.
Sweden registered 66 new deaths, taking the total to 6,406, says Reuters. Sweden's death rate per capita is several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours but lower than some larger European countries.


The piece I heard also pointed out the differences in cultures as far as following medical directives. Finland and Norway on either side of Sweden have had 374 and 305 deaths respectively compared to Sweden's 6,406.

Yes higher than those 2 countries. Lower than most of Europe, so by any measure it can't be said was a failure. Lower than several countries with total lock downs. 

[Ianab]

Sweden's death per million is 23rd. Below most of Europe. Their cases per million is 45th. Well below most of Europe 

They might be looking across the border at Finland and Norway next door. Their death rates are about 1/10. 

So yes it depends who you compare with... Saying 23rd sounds OK, except there are ~180 countries on the list with lower figures. 

[Sedgehammer]

Sweden's death per million is 23rd. Below most of Europe. Their cases per million is 45th. Well below most of Europe

They might be looking across the border at Finland and Norway next door. Their death rates are about 1/10.

So yes it depends who you compare with... Saying 23rd sounds OK, except there are ~180 countries on the list with lower figures.

If you can read, i said 23rd, below most of Europe. I didn't say they are 23rd, so that's pretty good. As to the 180, many aren't modern countries or where the people have freedom, so that doesn't really mean much. 

[trapper]

How can a person find out if they had it in the past? In Feburary my wife and I had some of the symptons and went to urgent care in flordia.  Gave us some antibiotics for broncitus and sent us on.  Still wondering if we had it then.

[Ljohnsaw]

How can a person find out if they had it in the past?

My local blood donation center (Vitalant) checks everyone's blood for Covid-19 antibodies.  Test results posted in a few days.  Not sure how long the antibodies stay around at detectable levels.  They are, however, always looking so the plasma can used for people who have C19.

[doc henderson]

That is correct.  I was told the red cross had stopped testing which made no sense, but my donor app says they still are.  estimates are about 3 to 4 months, but the immunity isw more than just antibodies.  so we do not know.  i doubt you had it in Feb. as the cases were very isolated to begin with (that we know of)  unless you had a contact ect. or lived in NYC as an example.  can always give blood and get a free test.  your doc can order it as well.  still lots of other fine infectious diseases to get besides covid. 

[Old saw fixer]

My doc added the covid antibody test to my usual blood work on Monday last week. Nurse called and all was good and covid came back negative.

[nativewolf]

Sweden's death per million is 23rd. Below most of Europe. Their cases per million is 45th. Well below most of Europe

They might be looking across the border at Finland and Norway next door. Their death rates are about 1/10.

So yes it depends who you compare with... Saying 23rd sounds OK, except there are ~180 countries on the list with lower figures.

If you can read, i said 23rd, below most of Europe. I didn't say they are 23rd, so that's pretty good. As to the 180, many aren't modern countries or where the people have freedom, so that doesn't really mean much.

You are simply incorrect, Sweden is not good.   Having spent time in Scandinavia I can assure you there is no difference between Norway/denmark/finland/sweeden.  You would not know you were in which country if you were in a living room.  Sweden has 3 comps, and they are far far below all 3.  Literally stepping across a forest and having an order of magnitude greater chance to get sick.  Sweden is better off than the USA, sure.  But better off than neighbors, not at all..they have flunked that test.  Also remember that all over Europe they are going to test sick people much more than we do because Europeans go to medical care much sooner and more often than most Americans, money does not keep a poor person away and most are urbanized and medical care is right around corner.  I miss that but I'm also not sure how testing really compares across countries other than general guides.  What we can say is that Sweeden's experiment was interesting but a failure.  We know it was a failure because we had 3 control cases.  Sweeden is the poster child for those promoting the use of masks, limited social interactions, etc.  

Scandinavia in general is well ordered, strongly civic, somewhat socialist, great great health care system and medical care so they are going to have better health care than say a Spain or Italy with large number of tourists, poor social organization, poor civic culture, and weaker health care systems.  Clearly culture has something to do with spread, look at Japan, Korea, Scandinavia, Taiwan, NZ, etc.  Really good health care systems and strong governments, good civic organization, no mania about rights -people got on board with a goal.   They have it under control as well as anyone. Even look at Canada.  1/4 the rates we have in the US.  
In good news today we had our first truck driver show up with mask on, his county in WV is devastated by it he said and he's wearing a mask full time.  Maybe a bit too late but good to see.  He took it seriously and had not the last 4 months.  We don't shake hands and if the drivers don't wear masks we do even though we are all outside and standing 6 feet apart.  
Son's school shut again, very high end private school and despite huge efforts 2 students sick and now a teacher so we're doing virtual for 2 weeks.  Sigh.  

[Sedgehammer]

@nativewolf  I never said it was good. I said compared to the rest of Europe it cannot be said it was a failure and it cannot. Several European countries that had/have strict lockdowns and mask mandates suffered far higher mortality rates. as to your claims it is the poster child for promoting masks, social distancing etc, I'll disagree to the exact reason why. There are several studies on here that show some things look to offer no benefit. % of deaths in elderly care facilities are about the same. Sweden did close schools and since GDP differences appear to be about the same in the Nordic countries in question, it appears people limited their interactions to some degree. Sweden's head on their response also said their appears to be some correlation between % of outbreaks with influenza in the preceding 2 years and covid 19. Those countries that suffered low outbreaks of influenza appear to have higher levels of covid. It's complicated. 

[firefighter ontheside]

There is evidence that antibodies and therefore some measure of immunity may last far longer than originally suggested.  This is evidenced by the very small number of documented cases of people getting it more than once.  Those cases may have been people who had a very mild case at first or even false positives on the first case.  
Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint - The New York Times

[Don P]

Apparently there was a lung cancer screening going on in Lombardy, Italy in Sept 2019 of around 1000 people. Scientists have gone back and checked the blood samples and have found the 12% had covid antibodies. Our first reports of covid were from Wuhan in Dec. This means that it was circulating in Italy probably in August.

[doc henderson]

the mitigation including masks, reduce spread.  the mortality rate after you have it, depends on your body.  well people can still die, but the rate is higher for elderly chronically ill such as in nursing homes.  In our country, we keep folks alive on dialysis, and numerous drugs ect.  so that we have a large population, "holding on by a thread".  fatality from a hip fracture is often from getting pneumonia from being in bed.  As pointed out, some countries enforce curfew by beating you with a stick or worse.  In our country the higher population density areas got hit bad first.  In the bad influenzae years, we run out of test kits, and start to assume and treat anyone with symptoms.  It is so prevalent, we also feel that everyone gets it, especially if the vaccine was a miss.  so I guess I could brag that we did not get hit till now, but it is nothing we did right or wrong, it is just the way the virus spreads.  some countries will do what is suggested, and others will refuse even if it is mandated.  if we could spread everyone out with no contact, we could have stopped this.  who is going to do this.  again we are trying to keep the hospital care available for those who need it and in 10 years we will know so much more.  without a vaccine, we all have to get it at some point, or get it all at the same time.  that is what a vaccine does, is get enough of the population immune, that it slows the spread.  we can compare ourselves to other countries, but hard to draw conclusions since there are so many differences.

[Sedgehammer]

Apparently there was a lung cancer screening going on in Lombardy, Italy in Sept 2019 of around 1000 people. Scientists have gone back and checked the blood samples and have found the 12% had covid antibodies. Our first reports of covid were from Wuhan in Dec. This means that it was circulating in Italy probably in August.

As contagious as this thing appears to be I have a very hard time in believing that. I know the tests that show you have it vary on positives, I am wondering if that shows up in the blood test they are using. That's pretty high herd and no dead in Sept, Oct, Dec. I'm gonna say, nope.

[nativewolf]

@nativewolf  I never said it was good. I said compared to the rest of Europe it cannot be said it was a failure and it cannot. Several European countries that had/have strict lockdowns and mask mandates suffered far higher mortality rates. as to your claims it is the poster child for promoting masks, social distancing etc, I'll disagree to the exact reason why. There are several studies on here that show some things look to offer no benefit. % of deaths in elderly care facilities are about the same. Sweden did close schools and since GDP differences appear to be about the same in the Nordic countries in question, it appears people limited their interactions to some degree. Sweden's head on their response also said their appears to be some correlation between % of outbreaks with influenza in the preceding 2 years and covid 19. Those countries that suffered low outbreaks of influenza appear to have higher levels of covid. It's complicated.

Yes it is a failure.  If you can't understand that ...can't help you.  They failed.  They had all the same culture, systems, life spans, etc that exists in Denmark, Norway and Finland.  That's the comp in Europe.  Not Italy..not England.  England tried to ignore it under the "leadership" of the idiot that almost died of the virus (after which they tried to get serious).  For purposes of understanding and contrasting Sweden's unique approach you have 3 comps.  3.  Not Europe, Not the rest of the world.  3 comps.  There is no point in comparing Sweden to Morocco or Turkey or Armenia or India or "europe"  because they are not comparable.  When you do an experiment you compare the experiment to a control.  The purpose of contrasting is to make a useful observation.   If you compare it to anything else you are making a useless observation.  
It was a neat experiment and it failed.  It is that simple.  There is no other observation to make.
The US military did a similar experiment and got the same result, once they got strict they put an end to a surge in infection.  CDC type guidelines save lives and slow the spread.  

[Sedgehammer]

@nativewolf  I never said it was good. I said compared to the rest of Europe it cannot be said it was a failure and it cannot. Several European countries that had/have strict lockdowns and mask mandates suffered far higher mortality rates. as to your claims it is the poster child for promoting masks, social distancing etc, I'll disagree to the exact reason why. There are several studies on here that show some things look to offer no benefit. % of deaths in elderly care facilities are about the same. Sweden did close schools and since GDP differences appear to be about the same in the Nordic countries in question, it appears people limited their interactions to some degree. Sweden's head on their response also said their appears to be some correlation between % of outbreaks with influenza in the preceding 2 years and covid 19. Those countries that suffered low outbreaks of influenza appear to have higher levels of covid. It's complicated.

Yes it is a failure.  If you can't understand that ...can't help you.  They failed.  They had all the same culture, systems, life spans, etc that exists in Denmark, Norway and Finland.  That's the comp in Europe.  Not Italy..not England.  England tried to ignore it under the "leadership" of the idiot that almost died of the virus (after which they tried to get serious).  For purposes of understanding and contrasting Sweden's unique approach you have 3 comps.  3.  Not Europe, Not the rest of the world.  3 comps.  There is no point in comparing Sweden to Morocco or Turkey or Armenia or India or "europe"  because they are not comparable.  When you do an experiment you compare the experiment to a control.  The purpose of contrasting is to make a useful observation.   If you compare it to anything else you are making a useless observation.  
It was a neat experiment and it failed.  It is that simple.  There is no other observation to make.
The US military did a similar experiment and got the same result, once they got strict they put an end to a surge in infection.  CDC type guidelines save lives and slow the spread.  

I guess you didn't read what I posted and what Doc posted and add them together. There is no control. They aren't exact. Similar, sure. Read what Doc said about influenza and then read what the head from Sweden said. One of the reasons our death count is high, is we keep people alive far longer than most countries, so this thing has more elderly that are hanging on just barely to attack. It's not simple. It's complicated. and as to getting strict and putting it down, why did NY have such high numbers? They are nearly the strictest of all states. Why did the bulk europe with harsh lock downs suffer higher mortality rates? Why do the strict lock down states here have such high numbers and why is it spreading their fast?  If it was simple, then they would also be low numbers and they aren't.

[doc henderson]

lots of benign cold causing corona viruses, but I assume they are referring to the 19 (sars 2) virus.  If it is covid 19, must have not been as virulent.  we have checked in our respiratory panel pcr, for 4 common cold covid viruses for years.  interesting.  makes you wonder about someone messing with it, but with all the dna monitoring, we should know that by now. no conspiracy theory intended.

[doc henderson]

well NYC is a high density area on a coast with a big airport.  all the strict policies as you mention in England, are adopted after the crap hits the fan.  with a 2 week incubation rate,  the next month is on auto pilot, and the mitigation will help down the road.  if you go from 1 person infecting 10 others, to each infected person infecting one other, (as in your own home) it levels out.  we have a cycle of getting strict after the fact (too late)  and then getting lax after things calm down, and start the cycle again.  In our country pick a number, but only a percentage comply with recommendations or mandates.  mitigation only works if everyone is on board.  that is most of what we are talking about.  

[doc henderson]

as we learn more about this virus, we modify what we do to balance the risk of the virus vs damage to society/economy ect.  the 20 years olds, who did not care about mitigation to the frail 80 year olds who were scared to death and isolated for the past 8 months.  we have made historic strides in a short period (for science) of time.  we have a vaccine and antibody treatments.  we know more about how to treat the ill.  lots of the first touted treatments have been shown not effective.  

[Jeff]

If you can read,

Guess what. That was uncalled for and it will cost you.

[Ianab]

Link to a news article today about a local woman's "long covid". She was a fit (marathon running fit) 32 year old, had a good job and was studying for a PhD. She picked up a "mild" case while returning from overseas, didn't need hospital treatment etc.  After 8 months she's pleased to have recovered enough to do the dishes!!.

In for the long haul: eight months of illness for 'long Covid' sufferer | Stuff.co.nz 

Exact symptoms / severity / duration are all variable, but they have found ~90 cases here in NZ, out of 2,000 infections. But it seems it can cause symptoms similar to a traumatic brain injury. (Fatigue / Memory / "Brain Fog").

CDC website about the "long covid". 

Long-Term Effects of COVID-19 | CDC

The long-term significance of these effects is not yet known. CDC will continue active investigation and provide updates as new data emerge, which can inform COVID-19 clinical care as well as the public health response to COVID-19.

The best way to prevent these long-term complications is to prevent COVID-19.

So it's not simply the risk of dying we worry about. A significant number of people are suffering long term effects. 

[Don P]

Doc, I heard the Italy report on "The People's Pharmacy" this morning.
Here is a Reuter's link;
Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, Italian study shows | Reuters

and a slightly longer article from something that looks like Europe;
COVID-19 was spreading in Italy by September 2019, study indicates - CGTN

I'm not pushing a theory it was just interesting "news".

I suspect as people look back on this from the distance of time our response and that of places like Sweden will be taught as a lesson in hubris.

[Ianab]

The virus was obviously spreading in the Wuhan area for "some" time before it was recognised as "novel", because in 95% of cases the symptoms can be the same as any of dozens of other respiratory viruses. So it's not inconceivable that it had spread beyond Wuhan, as all it would take is one person to carry it. 

There were no tests for it at that time, as it wasn't even known as a "thing", so a small upswing in "flu" cases wouldn't have rung any alarm bells, and some people even die from the flu, so a few deaths wouldn't seem unusual either. So the new virus could have been able to get a foothold in the population before anyone knew it existed. 

Genetic testing of the various strains of the virus has shown the "Italian" strain has a subtle genetic mutation from the original "Chinese" one, suggesting it had been spreading from one early case (that picked up the change). With regard to the US out break, the initial infections in Seattle etc were genetically identical to the original Chinese virus, suggesting the infections came directly from there. The New York infections started the same as the Italian version, suggesting that the infection came via there. 

There are now dozens of slightly different strains, which does help in tracking how cases are being spread. That's one thing being used to track the sporadic outbreaks here. If someone catches the virus from casual contact, they check the genetic signature of the new patient's virus. If it's the same, then it's safe to assume they are part of that cluster of infections, and the trace / isolate continues until the chain is shut down. But if they have a different strain, that means there is another unrelated and unknown cluster of infections, and that's MUCH more concerning as no one knows how far it's already spread. 

But that level of response is only possible if you get the numbers low enough.

[Gary_C]

More facts. Remember this from April 29, 2020?  
Remdesivir shows promising results for coronavirus, Fauci says
At the time this came out, my scientist son and I questioned the results because in the fine print in the study it said the differences in the study groups were not stastically significant. Huh?

What is the status today? (November 19, 2020)
WHO group recommends against using remdesivir to treat hospitalized Covid-19 patients
"The evidence [suggests] no important effect on mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, time to clinical improvement, and other patient-important outcomes," the WHO's group wrote. Members added: "The panel interpreted the evidence as not proving that remdesivir is ineffective; rather, there is no evidence based on currently available data that it does improve patient-important outcomes."  
Woops says Dr. Fauci again. It's not ineffective, it just doesn't work.  :

And then there is Hydroxychloroquine. (November 19, 2020) 
COVID Doc Says Hydroxychloroquine 'Highly Effective' and Fears Are Overblown - Now FDA Chief Admits It Might Help

How can we ever trust the science again? Trump got us two vaccines in record time and he recommended Hydroxychloroquine, perhaps he is more trustworthy? Oops, I wasn't supposed to say that here but it is a fact.

[Peter Drouin]

So with all the talk here, I missed the symptoms of the thing, Like if I feel a sore throat coming on should I get a test?

[doc henderson]

any virus can give you sore throat along with other stuff.  loss of taste and smell seems to be specific, but not always present.  If you have a sore throat, you will be sent home to quarantine even if positive.  if at high risk you might get the antibody.  the big deal is if you are getting sob, confused, chest pain ect. often a sign of significant disease, but now covid goes to the top of the list.  diarrhea also is a common finding with covid, as well as many other viruses.