Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[Gary_C]

 As far as the virus DNA, Stanford, and other universities are suing I think the NIH, and others as they won't release any of the sequencing.  

I don't know what good any of that will do now though, as we've got vaccine resistant strains being confirmed.

That's total BS. Stick to facts you can back up. 

[doc henderson]

ok guys.  so all viruses are not alive.  just packets of dna or rna in a membrane that can attach to cells (spike) and incorporate its genetic material, that turns on the factory to make more bits and pieces to make more virus.  the name for pcr is polymerase chain reaction and it is how they take dna from a crime scene and amplify it so there is enough to test.  all tests have false + and false - results.  after years of study the results are known and further research will work out the bugs, or find a different reagent to react with the specific sequence of dna or the 3 dimensional structure of a protein.  a good screening test, never misses a case, and casts a wide net.  like for cancer.  a good diagnostic test may have some false negative results, but when it is + it is highly reliable.  (not many false +).  Your false - test may be cause you got a nice nurse who did not want to make your nose feel like it is on fire.  Many test have been refined over the years to have good sensitivity (never misses)  and good specificity (always picks up if a certain material is present).  this test will evolve over the next 20 years.  it is also known that a test becomes worse (false + rate) if done on low probability patients.  why you should not get a random test, but it becomes more reliable if you have symptoms.  the antibodies in your body can be looked at to see if you really had infection by the virus, or just had the vaccine or just got the monoclonal antibody.  or all three.  Just like influenzae, if the virus changes, the vaccine will be adapted to get all or most of the new variants.  Most of the companies work with major universities to do research and develop treatments.  I do not know (have not looked) about lawsuits and lack of data sharing.  @Gary C see if they can send off a fractionated antibody test.  It will help solve the puzzle.  since several of you tested +, it is prob. accurate.  

[Gary_C]

  @Gary C see if they can send off a fractionated antibody test.  It will help solve the puzzle.  since several of you tested +, it is prob. accurate.  

Mayo only does antibody testing for specific limited reasons and they do not recommend the tests for some weeks after an infection to allow for your immune system to fully develop the antibodies. Also the antibody tests presently available are not fully approved by the FDA though Mayo also recently came out with a new neutralizing antibody test but it will only be available to labs by June. I actually was tested back in July 2020 for SARS-CoV-2 IgG Ab because of a mystery fever and was found to be negative for any antibodies to CoV-2.

The mystery you surmised was at first due to a lack of any fevers or major symptoms by all family members and that was mostly resolved when my wife and I both tested positive. The remaining mystery is about the source of the infection. Of the eight family members that got together briefly on that day, one is fully vaccinated and my wife and I were half vaccinated and we are very isolated. Two who drove here are extreme isolationists and germaphobes but stopped on the way to pickup takeout food. Of the other three local one family members one has now tested negative. The two that picked up the takeout food apparently got the worst of the infection and are the only ones to still have lingering symptoms. So the lingering mystery is where to point the finger of suspicion for the source of the infection and if I told you there was not some family controversy over the source I'd be lying.   

[pineywoods]

Funny vaccination side effects. I got my second maderna shot 3 weeks ago. Had the expected reaction, lasted about 36 hours. Now 3 weeks later I'm having re-occurences of the side effects, identical to the original effects. Usually last 3 or 4 hours. Worst part is the extreme fatigue. Probably just me, I'm 84 years old and prone to medical funnies.

[LeeB]

I gave blood a few days back and they tested for antibodies. Apparently I have not had covid, which is a good thing.

[nativewolf]

I get my first Moderna test today.  The vaccine rollout sure seems to have picked up speed.

[doc henderson]

yes.  all the hard work and planning done over the past year is coming to fruition.   ;) 

[petefrom bearswamp]

Wife and I getting second Moderna today.
Lots more available here now.
Hoping for no side effects

[Texas Ranger]

Polk County, Texas, high 7 day average new cases per day, 9 on March 3rd, and 7 day average of 1 death per day.  Since March 18th, seven day average 2 cases a day and 7 day average of 0 deaths per day.  In a county of some 55,000 folks, many retiree's.

[Roxie]

Still waiting in Pennsylvania...

[Gary_C]

In MN they just announced that starting Tuesday everyone over the age of 16 is eligible to get a vaccination. In IA I believe it will be by April 5 and over 18 are eligible. They are not saying you can get your vaccination, only that you are eligible to get on the schedule when vaccines are available. 
  

[Texas Ranger]

How will we know if the vaccine is effective in the long run?  Survival rate goes from 98.7 to 98.8?  A recent meme not funny to 1.3.

[Ianab]

How will we know if the vaccine is effective in the long run?

The hope is that enough people get vaccinated that the virus simply dies out. If the virus is no longer circulating it doesn't matter if your immunity wears off after a couple of years. If the virus isn't actively circulating in the population, you can't catch it. 


The worry is that pockets of it will continue to reproduce and create more new mutations.  If that happens it may end up being annual booster shots for a while?


That's why it's important to get most of the population vaccinated, even if many individuals are low risk. The more cases left circulating the higher the chance of new variants and fresh outbreaks. 

[JJ]

Survival rate goes from 98.7 to 98.8?

no that's not right.
with vaccine you have like 95% of not getting sick enough to take chances with a virus that has 99% survival rate.

  Like a 100% unless there are other underlining issues at play.

I'm not any authority on this.

      JJ

[JJ]

After vaccine:
The way to look at this (after few IPAs) is 0.05 chance of infection, and 0.01 chance of survival.  
Is now 0.0005 or 0.05% chance of serious infection, where before it was 1%.

[nativewolf]

yes.  all the hard work and planning done over the past year is coming to fruition.   ;)  

True, very true.  So it was an interesting experience, had it in Culpepper VA.  Lots of people in line but in 2 mins I was getting stabbed.  15 mins to wait, out the door.  Very well done.  Average age was much like me, a few younger people.  Only saw 1 person over 70.  They were doing 30 at a time, dance music going in the background, trying to make it fun for the staff I guess.  

[Ianab]

After vaccine:
The way to look at this (after few IPAs) is 0.05 chance of infection, and 0.01 chance of survival.  
Is now 0.0005 or 0.05% chance of serious infection, where before it was 1%.

Even better, because once most of the population gets vaccinated, your chances are actually being infected is much reduced. That's the idea of the whole vaccine program. Polio is still a deadly disease if you happen to catch it, but your chances of dying from it are very remote, because most of the population has been immunised. 
The survival ratio doesn't matter any more if no one is actually getting infected. 

[Ed_K]

 Rita is finally getting her first shot on Sunday. It took her a month of on the puter and calling every day to get this far. Ma. doesn't really do a very good job of setting up appointments for people who live in the country >:(. She has to drive 56 miles down the Springfield just to get these shots. My Multiple Meyloma Dr. told me not to get it yet as there's not enough info for blood cancer patience's yet :(.

[Brucer]

How will we know if the vaccine is effective in the long run?  

Well ... Pfizer, for one, is tracking the participants in the phase 3 trials for 24 months after their inoculation. If they start seeing more infections in those people, it'll give the rest of us a few month's warning.

[LeeB]

Saw a news report today that said it's expected that 30% of the US population will choose not to receive a vaccine. How will that effect the spread?

[doc henderson]

It will be slowed, but less likely to drop off completely.  If at that level, we also see some drop off in the summer, we may be good.  if enough variation occurs with mutation, then it can becomes a yearly vaccine (with slight variation in the vaccine).  we really do not know, and remember the point we are at now would have usually taken 10 years.  The vaccine will continue to improve and over time (hopefully) be established as safe.  As well, you may not be able to travel by air or ship with out it.  It may be like at work when something happens and many say they are going to quit.  the reality of needed income and insurance kicks in, and very few actually quit.   At least the vaccinated are protected form lethal disease.  most likely everyone will either get the disease or the vaccine until it hopefully drops off the radar.  some animals carry rabies, but we vaccinate our pets, and I think the last case of rabies in a dog in Ks was like 1932.  do not quote me on that date, but is remains prevalent in skunks but the vaccine is very effective.  @Nebraska .  If it is discovered that there are serious side effects, then more folks may hesitate, and further research & development will have to be done.  You are really choosing between the vaccine with limited side effects, or the disease.  young people are relatively safe getting the disease, and they should be doing it to protect the vulnerable all around them.  all the vaccines are still considered drugs under investigation.  when fully approved, it will be required of many employees in health care and the military.

[mike_belben]

is covid still going on out there? This is the longest anything made in china has ever lasted. 

[Nebraska]

Good one Mike!  ;)  
I wish all of my vaccines in my arsenal worked as well as rabies vaccine.  The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for covid 19 are very good within my understanding. That's why I participated.  I think we will see yearly boosters with antigenic tweaks like influenza vaccines, if the virus can mutate fast enough to keep ahead of the herd immunity.  My last check of the Covid data for was that hospitalizations are down to less than 10% of their peak numbers around here a couple weeks ago. I don't understand why that fact isn't big news but I don't hear it, (no comments past this observation)......   
  As far as rabies virus goes our pricipal vector is skunks, but we also see it in bats as well. I have in 27 years diagnosed two horses, a heifer, several unvaccinated cats. Last positives were a couple bats if i remember correctly. The rabies diagnostic  lab we use is in Kansas, testing is free here  if there is human exposure. I don't recall ever having a positive dog, but thankfully people are pretty good about vaccinating their pets. We have seen several positive cases in one year the may not see one for a few years.  Not Covid related just FYI stuff regarding rabies virus.

[doc henderson]

Kansas state university is a rival to University of Kansas , but a great ag/vet school.  The only paper sited in the book on sugaring I got, in the chapter on walnut syrup, was done at KSU.

[Texas Ranger]

Polk County, Texas, 2 deaths after 14 days of no deaths.