Supply Chain impacts

[dgdrls]

Coronavirus impact already being felt

Though this was an interesting article on the impact
CV/over supply and the Chinese new year is having
on the logging industry in NZ.


D

[BargeMonkey]

 Oil, steel, I think it's going to effect more than just wood. 

[Rhodemont]

In my real job we import parts from china and export others to china.  Shipments to us have all but stopped and we can not get customs approval for what we have to ship there.  Shipments to North American customers are dropping as they are not getting the other components from china that they need to assemble devices.

[Southside]

Definitely a reason why we need to invest in production here. Imagine if this cutoff was an intentional act due to a conflict or political disagreement. 

Obviously an easy way to bring a country to it's knees. 

[BargeMonkey]

 Look at how the chinese government suppressed knowledge about it, the original doctor to speak out about it. Wasnt long ago the country was having riots in the street now this.... also happens to be a government super lab in Wuhan... yeah... 😂 
 Those people on the cruise ship in Japan who didnt get off because of the additional 14day quarantine are fools, if the cases keep increasing good luck getting back in the country. That original quarantine was imposed on that ship as a test to see how fast it would spread and the incubation period, drinking the kool-aid if you didnt see that coming. 

[SwampDonkey]

Governments and profit seeking pharma companies have allowed vaccine and antibiotic medicine slide for years. No money in cures. I don't thin there has been a cure since the 60's, tuberculosis was one of the last around '69. And it is a lot more aggressive than a cold, you don't actually kill the bacteria entirely, it goes dormant in a cyst. If you ever get it, they have the check you for years after.

[krusty]

Definitely a reason why we need to invest in production here. Imagine if this cutoff was an intentional act due to a conflict or political disagreement.

Imagine with all the kids will do without their latest iPhones!
OK kidding, except the kid and phones part and I agree with you. Though much of what we get from that part of the world is simply consumerism related.

[Southside]

Medicine, steel, tech that goes into our weapons systems.  I should post a picture of the hitch on my Super 70, stamped right on the top - Made in China...  We would be wise if it was only I phones and junky sneakers.

[SwampDonkey]

Something simple as a damper on a  stove pipe to. Used to be made in Canada by Imperial. Now stamped on the cast plate China. But what is worst than the cast is that crap aluminum handle, that used to be a good piece of iron rod that fit proper and didn't flip flop. You have to turn the handle now 1/4 turn to get the damper to move, so you don't have a clue how open the damper is. Then it acts more like a baffle on exhaust fan in a bathroom, flap'n in the draft. :D That's the kind of slop work from China. Who knows, maybe it is just part of the 'Fake' goods sent in here to support organized crime and terrorists groups.

I can say though, that there is still some good product out there even nails and screws. When building the house 99.99% of the fasteners, materials and so forth was made in Canada. Hinges and cupboard knobs was probably China, and the bolts for the knobs are 1/4" too short for 3/4" maple drawers/doors. :D

[dustintheblood]

So a few years back I did a two year work project in the east coast for the lumber industry.  I was there to help develop markets (important to remember).

Met some great folks, and became good friends with a neighbour in the airline business.  Decent guy, but didn't know what end of the hammer to hold.

He bought a pre-packed wooden swingset for his kids and asked me to help put it up.

hammer - check
beer - check

Went at er and as I cracked the box, noticed it was made in China.  (okay I thinks ... whatever).  Start laying out the wood (hmmm radiata pine)....

And I'm now pondering why the heck I'm there to develop markets for the wood biz when Pine can be harvested in NZ, shipped to China for precutting and staining, put on an ocean boat, shipped across the world, unloaded at port, put on a rail car, shipped to distribution point, trucked to retailer and then into my buddy's family van.....

Cheaper than we could have done it ourselves.

No doubt - it was crappy and wouldn't last more than two years, but hey - it kepts his youngins happy for a few days.

[donbj]

And I'm now pondering why the heck I'm there to develop markets for the wood biz when Pine can be harvested in NZ, shipped to China for precutting and staining, put on an ocean boat, shipped across the world, unloaded at port, put on a rail car, shipped to distribution point, trucked to retailer and then into my buddy's family van.....Cheaper than we could have done it ourselves.

There's along list of that type of thing. US chickens being flash frozen, boated to China, processed into chicken nuggets, boated back and into the market. It's not just the US. Canada and much of the world economy operates on these scenarios, dollar rules. We want it cheaper, see it cheaper, buy it cheaper. The consumer and their loyalty drives this. How much will we pay to keep it all in house? We're all guilty of it

[Southside]

In Klamath Falls Oregon I picked up a cedar smoking plank for salmon while in a department store. Said on it the lumber was from Canada, the plank was made in China, and here it was in the US being sold in a two pack for under $10....

[BradMarks]

Exports from China are at a halt. Only what has been on the water, and then if customs allows it (as said earlier) It will hit consumers here as soon as our US mainland supplies imported from China have substantial inventory reduction. Something as simple as bamboo stakes, the Ag industry in the west will suffer and prices will go up.

[SwampDonkey]

We want it cheaper, see it cheaper, buy it cheaper. The consumer and their loyalty drives this. How much will we pay to keep it all in house? We're all guilty of it

Price does not really come to the consumer, it's in the hands of the retailer and the brand owner. If it is cheap it is highly probable to be fake. You can see no price reduction in such things as shoes. A $300 pair of boots by brand made here is still $300 made in China and sold here. And I see that happen within the span of a year, made here this year and over there the next. Inflation don't work price that quick if it is only 2% as they claim. Them boots should be $100. :D Three years ago you could buy a full sized pickup for $40,000 and now they want $80,000. Very few people around here buying those on 1980's wages. A welder is still getting $12-15/hr, same as 30 years ago. We've got guys running brush saws making twice the money of a welder. And the shops here won't hire anyone with a certificate except one guy over seeing the rest. Any talk of a union and your out of work. They tried it a couple times in a local shop, those guys ain't around no more. Government won't enforce the right to collective bargain, jobs trumps union.

Old CBC article

BWS Manufacturing layoff draws union-busting complaint | CBC News

[kiko]

The shelves at your local Walmart might get empty.  Yep there is no way to avoid Chinese products.  $59 car stereo to be blue tooth compliant. I bought it, works good. 

[kiko]

None of welders around here will work for $15/hour.  

[Ljohnsaw]

So tell me if I'm thinking this through correctly.  Lots of wood and steel (used to) get shipped to China.  Made into various goods (swing sets, rebar, nails, screws...) and shipped back here and sold cheaper then making it here.  Or is it that it can't be made here anymore because the business are gone?  Scrap steel pricing has been pretty depressed for quite some time out here.

With Chinese business shut down, trade shut down, nothing can be exported.  How long will this go on?  A month, two, more?  So there will be a surplus of logs and steel over here.  Prices should continue to drop, yes?  Scarcity of goods should cause goods' prices to climb, yes?  What will it take for manufacturing to kick back into gear here?  Or will business just go to Mexico, Taiwan, Philippines, or ?  Will corporate America ever be able to compete?

[donbj]

Lots of wood and steel (used to) get shipped to China.  Made into various goods (swing sets, rebar, nails, screws...) and shipped back here and sold cheaper then making it here.

It's not totally a Chinese issue when dollars are involved. I've seen one building product (drywall), made in Canada, exported to the US and the building supply in the US delivering it back to people building houses in Canada and those customers saving thousands of dollars on their house. I go into the local Canadian building supply and look at the same product, same brand, 30%+ more than buying it in the States. Go figger.

[SwampDonkey]

I saw that a few years ago with OSB. $8/sheet in southern Maine and $32 local. That has changed in recent years. I can't go into Lowes in Northern Maine and beat prices in NB anymore. Money is around US$0.75= CDN$1.00 now, but the banks want 40% exchange. 10 years ago the banks would have charged 30%, I figure the Canadian Feds here bent to rules for the banks.

[SwampDonkey]

None of welders around here will work for $15/hour.  

That's because they aren't looking for work. My cousin was a welder for 40 years, but not here, he had to go to the US and western Canada for the real money. Only platform he ain't welded from is on space stations out there in orbit. :D

[SwampDonkey]

Was into Walmart in Maine yesterday and got some masking tape by 3M Scotch, made in Canada, two pack $4.00. I see Duck brand, which used to be made in Canada, is now China. I have some rolls of Duck brand box tape with made in Canada on it, got those at Marden's in Maine a couple years ago. In Marden's yesterday I picked up one needle made in Mexico. Also in Walmart some long heavy needles made in Czech Republic and tapestry needles (Singer) from China. Walmart Canada only sells 2000 yard spools of serger thread, but Walmart USA sells 5000 yard spools, not much difference in price, same brand. But I find Walmart are tricksters, quantities are short as in candy, you'll get a 6.8 oz bar, not an 8 oz one, cheaper yes, but that is why. It will say Giant Bar until you read all over the label to find the difference. Looking at them big bold letters you think it is the same bar as in the grocery store. All kinds of ways to scam, just read the whole label, not them large bold letters.  :D

A recent Market Place episode had experts spot fakery in products in Amazon, Walmart and others. All the stuff they examined on Amazon was fake. Some was fake in Walmart to, not all, and Walmart denied it. :D US Customs let them film inspectors going over imports and the customs guy said the market is flooded with fake crap, $billions worth, run by organized crime and terrorist groups.

I bought a bluetooth USB off Amazon, it was fake to. All it was was a USB powered LED that I could see, was sent back promptly at their expense. :D

[Ljohnsaw]

But I find Walmart are tricksters, quantities are short as in candy, you'll get a 6.8 oz bar, not an 8 oz one

That's the reason I try to avoid shopping there.  Walmart has been up to this trick for 10 to 15 years.  The shrinking product with the lower price (or "same low price").  There was a report years ago that they would force producers to package how they want.  If they refused, Walmart would stop carrying their product.  Since Walmart was so big, producers couldn't refuse.  Walmart relies on consumers that don't look too close.:-\

[BargeMonkey]

 Due to how NY alcohol laws are set up, I buy beer / wine from the same distributor walmart does. They take a 30pk, lose 4.00 off cost and put it on the shelf, at the end of the yr they figure out how many cases they have sold of that product and then strong arm the manufacturer into giving them a kickback, gotta love it. 

[SwampDonkey]

Walmart relies on consumers that don't look too close.:-\

Vulnerable and seniors. Around here seniors are almost 16% the population, around 122,000 in all.

[btulloh]

True.