iDRY Vacuum Kilns

Sponsors:

Cost of plywood jumped up

Started by Brad_bb, August 06, 2020, 09:38:10 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Brad_bb

Found out today that the cost of cdx jumped up 35% since June.  Said it's going to get worse.  Was told building has stayed the same, but supply is running short due to covid and suppliers weren't able to produce for awhile.
Anything someone can design, I can sure figure out how to fix!
If I say it\\\\\\\'s going to take so long, multiply that by at least 3!

Don P

And the weather service just predicted a very active hurricane season. Buy whatcha need or hold your peas till winter.

Southside

Basic inflation too due to all the events which have happened.  
Franklin buncher and skidder
JD Processor
Woodmizer LT Super 70 and LT35 sawmill, KD250 kiln, BMS 250 sharpener and setter
Riehl Edger
Woodmaster 725 and 4000 planner and moulder
Enough cows to ensure there is no spare time.
White Oak Meadows

Sedgehammer

Run them printin presses. What could go wrong.......
Necessity is the engine of drive

47sawdust

The cost of building products continues to climb.Pressure treated lumber is in short supply here in Vermont.
It is very hard for me to quote a job with any certainty at this point.
Mick
1997 WM Lt30 1999 WM twin blade edger Kubota L3750 Tajfun winchGood Health Work is my hobby.

timberking

Prices are up in most all segments of the buildings supply sector.  Be nice if some of that money would dribble down.  Sawmills and OSB mills have had us on lock down quota the whole year.

mike_belben

Lenin said debauch the currency in 1919.  

 And precisely a centennial later, my what a fine job theyve done. 
Praise The Lord

Ed_K

 I saw on the stock exchange price of spf 1k bf is up around $600. But I don't think us loggers will see any of it.
Ed K

SwampDonkey

1/2" Spruce plywood is $CDN 40 a sheet here.

3/4" birch plywood is $115 a sheet.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

DR_Buck



I'm going to start milling only plywood trees.  There's more money there than in "very valuable walnut".  ;D 
Been there, done that.   Never got caught [/b]
Retired and not doing much anymore and still not getting caught

moodnacreek

Thanks to all who posted here. You put me over the edge. I am raising my soft wood prices now.

Brad_bb

Quote from: DR_Buck on August 07, 2020, 08:29:17 PM


I'm going to start milling only plywood trees.  There's more money there than in "very valuable walnut".  ;D
I think you mean "Highly valuable black walnut".  It is highly valuable.
Anything someone can design, I can sure figure out how to fix!
If I say it\\\\\\\'s going to take so long, multiply that by at least 3!

Tom King

The answer for debt has always been inflation here, but this one is more complicated.  Short term stuff like this is mostly always supply, and demand.

I was getting ready to build a dock and boathouse, and called about getting a bundle of no.1 treated lumber.  Can't get it, even if I could pay for it, which at these prices, I really don't want to. 

petefrom bearswamp

Bad timing.
My grandson and a 25 yr old friend are both going to start houses this summer.
At least this is the plan currently
Kubota 8540 tractor, FEL bucket and forks, Farmi winch
Kubota 900 RTV
Polaris 570 Sportsman ATV
3 Huskies 1 gas Echo 1 cordless Echo vintage Homelite super xl12
57 acres of woodland

Corley5

4X8 sheet of 3/4 T&G OSB is almost $50 at local lumber yards.  10' treated 4X4s are almost $25.
Burnt Gunpowder is the Smell Of Freedom

mike_belben

Yesterday i called the scaler at the tie mill ive sold to, out of curiousity.  Log prices are about the same ive ever known, the log yard is pretty full and theyre havin a real hard time pushing ties as well as low grade lumber.  "Barn lumber" basically. 

I had hoped that unsatisfied demand for big box outbuilding lumber may have spilled over and made for good timing to cut a few tie trees out of the back lot and not have to firewood them to make a sale. 

Praise The Lord

sawguy21

Quote from: Corley5 on August 18, 2020, 08:36:41 AM
4X8 sheet of 3/4 T&G OSB is almost $50 at local lumber yards.  10' treated 4X4s are almost $25.
Yikes!! :o :o And that is U.S. prices, I won't ask what it is here. Holy moly!!
old age and treachery will always overcome youth and enthusiasm

Sedgehammer

Necessity is the engine of drive

SwampDonkey

23/32" tongue and groove OSB is $40 CDN here. Made here in New Brunswick by ARBEC. A builder gets a discount though.

Crabbe Mill yard is full of kilned softwood lumber, can't imagine that seeing any increase in price.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Old Greenhorn

I've been following along on this thread and noticing similar stuff going on here PT is 'unavailable' pretty much and prices are rising. This morning I got an article from the Working forest news that goes into some of the market pressures.
------------
By: The Working Forest Staff
Forest2Market Blog — After three consecutive record-breaking weeks, southern yellow pine (SYP) lumber prices once again pressed on to set a new record—by a big margin. In mid-August, Forest2Market's SYP lumber price composite showed prices jumped $106 in just one week. To put the new number in perspective, the composite price for the week ending August 14 was $798/MBF, which represents a 39% increase over the previous all-time high of $576/MBF that was achieved in June 2018.

The North American sawmill supply chain is under a lot of pressure; industry capacity is maxed as wholesalers and distributors snatch up every board they can find, and the trend is not unique to the South. Data from our British Columbia-based business partner, Madison's Lumber Reporter, details a similar scenario for benchmark softwood lumber products in western regions.

Such a price run also prompts the obvious question: What market fundamentals drive lumber prices?


What's Driving Record Lumber Prices Now?

Lumber prices have recently risen to new record highs, but prices for most finished lumber products started the year well within the range of their 5-year averages. However, as Forest2Market's SYP composite illustrates, prices have shot up by 140% since early January and there are three primary factors driving the trend:


Strong Demand

As expected, the homebuilding sector has experienced significant turmoil since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Housing starts were down 30% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 891,000 units—well below the 1Q2020 average of nearly 1.5 million units. But the steep plunge was largely driven by the "lockdown" that kept homebuilding to a minimum during most of the Spring season, especially in states where building was deemed non-essential. Construction rebounded in both May and June, and starts are currently hovering around a rate of 1.2 million units.

Despite this volatility in the housing starts data, demand from the remodel sector never really waned throughout the Spring, which caught the market off guard. Over the last several months, Forest2Market data demonstrates steady, strong demand for decking and "prime" lumber products typically sold through mass retailers rather than construction-grade products that make their way to homebuilders.

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) confirms the trend: "In the second quarter, all components and subcomponents of the RMI were well above 50. [Any number over 50 indicates that more remodelers view remodeling market conditions as good than poor.] The Current Conditions Index averaged 77, with large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more) yielding a reading of 70, moderately sized remodeling projects (at least $20,000 but less than $50,000) at 78 and small remodeling projects (under $20,000) with a reading of 83."

Capacity Adjustments

Modern sawmills are remarkably efficient at meeting lumber demand by turning round logs into square boards while generating very little waste. But they are designed to run at capacity to maximize these efficiencies. An idled mill can take weeks to restart, fine-tune its supply chain, and deliver the finished products to the market.

During the peak of the pandemic, many sawmills were forced to temporarily curtail or close, thereby removing a sizable chunk of capacity from the market almost overnight. Those manufacturers who were able to keep working had to do their best to match production to a considerable shift in demand. But what was anticipated to be a huge drop in demand was, in reality, a short-lived dip as the remodel sector buoyed overall demand. By the time mid-April rolled around and US lumber output had slowed, Canadian lumber shipments to the US—which make up a significant amount of US supply—were also down by nearly 20%.

Market Speculation

As production capacity has fluctuated, demand patterns have changed, and the lumber manufacturing sector has been chasing a moving target ever since early Spring. For wholesalers and purchasers of finished lumber, who typically buy inventories many weeks in advance, the situation has created a sense of desperation that has resulted in panic buying. They, too, are chasing a moving target as they try to secure a share of limited inventories while staying one step ahead of the competition and maintaining build schedules. When this kind of panic grips a commodities market, it oftentimes spins into a speculative scenario in which prices deviate significantly from intrinsic values.

This combination of events has resulted in a tremendous supply gap in the market. As lumber producers ramp up capacity and attempt to match production to current demand trends, there will continue to be volatility before the supply/demand relationship equalizes and the North American lumber market finds its footing.

---------

 Just thought some might find it interesting.

 
Tom Lindtveit, Woodsman Forest Products
Oscar 328 Band Mill, Husky 350, 450, 562, & 372 (Clone), Mule 3010, and too many hand tools. :) Retired and trying to make a living to stay that way. NYLT Certified.
OK, maybe I'm the woodcutter now.
I work with wood, There is a rumor I might be a woodworker.

Nebraska

If you are doing a staycation instead of a cruise, why not build a deck. I think a significant urban migration  will happen, driving up rural realestate prices and increasing demand on remodel materials.  I think the work from home model (my oldest son loves it) will downsize a bunch of commercial realestate/office buildings. No two hour commute twice a day, look at what you can do with that  new 4 hours..... (New she shed).....  Maybe this increase in raw material  prices will trim some of the oversized Mc mansion suburban sprawl, or will it escalate....?  Thanks for posting the article  Old Greenhorn.

Ed_K

 This morning's price on the N.Y. merc exchange was $781.60 for 1k of SPF. This is the highest I've ever seen.
Ed K

samandothers

We started a house build on April fools day...... shoulda known better.  It is in the process of getting dried in as sheeting the roof just started.  We did a fixed cost contract but it does have a clause that an increase in prices of material over a certain percentage can cause a change.  So I wonder if the builder will need to exercise that clause.  

The other thing I noticed in the article spoke to the framing lumber for builder market being a bit different quality than say that to box stores.  I have noticed how poor some of the studs are on interior wall framing in the basement walls.  

OGH, thanks for that posting good info to explain the whys.

LeeB

Quote from: samandothers on August 20, 2020, 10:34:46 AMThe other thing I noticed in the article spoke to the framing lumber for builder market being a bit different quality than say that to box stores.  I have noticed how poor some of the studs are on interior wall framing in the basement walls.  


Given the poor quality of lumber I see at the box stores, this is really scary.
'98 LT40HDD/Lombardini, Case 580L, Cat D4C, JD 3032 tractor, JD 5410 tractor, Husky 346, 372 and 562XP's. Stihl MS180 and MS361, 1998 and 2006 3/4 Ton 5.9 Cummins 4x4's, 1989 Dodge D100 w/ 318, and a 1966 Chevy C60 w/ dump bed.

mike_belben

Ive seen completely powder rotted lumber on the shelf several times.  But hey as long as its stamped for grade, right?  

I could build a bunker with my chainsaw mill if not for the code man. 
Praise The Lord

Thank You Sponsors!