Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[doc henderson]

I have not read the book.  is it possible to predict his opinion without reading it?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - Wikipedia

[Gary_C]

Doc, I have not been a fan of RFK jr. either but I cannot dismiss the facts he related in the limited sample of the beginning of the book. I had previous knowledge of many of the facts he related in that first part of the book and had limited information on who was behind the events. Now it all comes together. 

It's always better to know all opinions out there even if you don't agree with the author rather than to ignore them. The publisher also offers a challenge in that the book is a living document in that if anyone knows contrary information, they are willing to listen and update the book. 

[doctorb]

Gary-

I certainly am aware of the criticisms levied at Dr. Fauci.  As a reader, I tend to stay away from books that are published in the middle of a battle, like all the "tell-all" books that have been published over the last 10 years.  My opinion is that they are published mostly to take advantage of the highly emotional divides in our politics.  Such books would be much different publications, if written at all, 10 years from now.  They would have at their disposal many more diverse sources, and would be written more for history's interest, not directed toward the current political climate.  As an aside, I never even feigned interest in any of the bookshelf full of such books published about Obama or Trump.  Never even thought of opening a cover.

I enjoy a good history, a good historical novel, or fiction.  Maybe Kennedy's book will fall into one of those categories some day, and I will read it.  But, for my current reading time, I like to indulge in something less contemporary.  I am sure doc h will tell you that, when you are studying medicine, by the time information reaches you in a text book, it's already out of date.  ;D  That's why we read journals because the information continually changes.

Thanks for the suggestion.  Keep them coming, as you know I value your opinion.

[Gary_C]

Doctorb, I understand your aversion to tell all books and further recognize there are limits to what one person can do, but is it acceptable to see ten years later that bad things were happening and I did not speak up and say enough? 

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)
 

[Claybraker]

If we are going to do book recommendations Thinking, Fast and Slow  Daniel Kahneman Nobel Prize Economics 2002 I highly recommend.  I need to go back and read it again, it's that good. that will take me some time, I read slow, because my lips get tired quickly.

[melezefarmer]

Canada data up to Nov 13 (there is a 3 week delay in sequencing tests). Vaccination is not responsible for all the protection. But how could you even measure the other factors? Masking, distancing, and washing are effective, but how could you collect that data other than just observation and assumption. Vaccination is a tangible marker, you either are or you're not, no grey area. Although flawed it may well be, since it's not the total picture. 76% of the population is fully vaccinated, yet 24% is unvaccinated and have most the infections, hospitalizations and deaths. It can't get any easier to demonstrate that vaccination works (along with measures mentioned above).  






source: COVID-19 daily epidemiology update - Canada.ca

The statistics SwampDonkey posted do not lie; vaccinations work. Reality and facts don't care about your feelings or political leaning.

[doctorb]

Gary-

Let's just say that the fog of war often causes the authors of such books, who write from an "I am in the trenches" or an "Only I have all the real answers" perspective, either don't have the whole story, can't see the whole story (bias), or can't tell the entire tale in an unbalanced manner.  Kennedy is well-known as a vaccine denyer/attacker, even well before Covid.  I mean, c'mon...you won't read the New York Times! ;) :D  So I think it's OK if I miss JFK Jr.'s book.  Meant all in good fun!

[doc henderson]

My point is long before the book, he is listed as Left leaning antivax advocate.  Let me know if he changed his opinion.  but I have trouble trusting a comment coming from someone who made their mind up about the covid vaccine 20 years ago.  sorry.  and as you can see from my profile, i love and live by that EB quote.  

[Stephen1]

4 If covid  doesn't  kill you it makes you stronger.  

The VAERS / AEFI systems are inherently not 100% accurate, but they look at the overall trends, and compare that to the "expected" numbers. So far the heart inflammation is the only thing that has stood out from the crowd. Sure people have had heart attacks or a stroke a week after getting the vaccine, and that raises questions. But when they analyse the whole picture, it's to be expected that 100-150 people are expected to suffer that event without the vaccine. Sucks if you are in that ~100, but statistically it was going to happen to someone.

Doc's , I should have stuck to facts, but the comment sucks if you are in that 100, Really struck me hard. I do not think anyone should suffer or die. But that goes into the politics and I need to stay away from that here. Protect the vunerable and let the economy run. 

[doc henderson]

It is all good @Stephen1

[Ianab]

Protect the vulnerable and let the economy run. 

While that sounds good, in practice how do you actually protect the vulnerable? They account for maybe 30% of the population, once you take age / weight / diabetes / cancer / high blood pressure etc into account. Sorry kids, you can't see Gran for the next couple of years? The best way to keep the economy running is to get rid of the dang virus, so people can travel / eat out / attend events without worrying about getting sick, or bringing the virus home to infect one of those vulnerable folks we are trying to protect. 

Here's a report from "on the ground" in Fiji. Being an Island like NZ they had largely dodged the bullet, and only had 4 deaths up until the Delta outbreak. But they got hit hard by that and are now at nearly 700 dead because it wasn't practical for them to lock down like NZ did at the start of the Delta outbreak. They don't have a lot of $$, so folks had to keep going to work, and of course the virus spreads. Instead they went all in with vaccinations, and now have over 90% of eligible folks vaccinated. New cases are now down to single figures daily, and life gets back to normal. The vulnerable are now pretty well protected as the vaccine is working well enough across the whole population, and they can safely get their economy going again. 

Covid-19: Kiwi in Fiji says island nation is 'living proof' vaccination works | Stuff.co.nz

That is basically the "end game" for the vaccination program. It would be great if the vaccine was more effective as we could squash the numbers with a lower % vaccinated.  But it is what it is. It's still the best tool we have to both protect the vulnerable, AND allow the economy to get back to normal(ish).

[SwampDonkey]

It's looking like omicron makes you less sick so far. But most of the harm right now is still Delta. We can all hope at least that the omicron is less harmful, takes over and becomes dominant and we get immunity naturally and or vaccine induced. 8)

Think positive.

[Ianab]

It's looking like omicron makes you less sick so far. But most of the harm right now is still Delta. We can all hope at least that the omicron is less harmful, takes over and becomes dominant and we get immunity naturally and or vaccine induced. 8)

Think positive.

It does appear the Omicron seem to be mild in vaccinated (and I assume recovered infections) So yes, that's best case scenario where a milder version spreads, boosts peoples immunity without killing too many. 
I don't think anyone knows exactly how it affect not vaccinated / not previously infected yet.  Thinking positive it won't be as dangerous as Delta

[SwampDonkey]

There is some non vaccinated data trickling in in SA, not enough to make any claims yet. But not hearing of too much trouble yet, and SA is only 25% vaccinated, not 75%. ;)

[Ianab]

There is some non vaccinated data trickling in in SA, not enough to make any claims yet. But not hearing of too much trouble yet, and SA is only 25% vaccinated, not 75%. ;)

That would be a "best case" scenario. More infectious, but less dangerous. 
Here's hoping. 
Considering  we are now 2 years into the pandemic, it's about time we got a lucky break  :-\

[kantuckid]

4 If covid  doesn't  kill you it makes you stronger.  

Actually NOT a fact.
Covid CAN cause long lasting damage to internal organs like the lungs, heart and brain. Actual scarring and loss of brain tissue, that show up on before / after scans of patients. Things like that do not make you "stronger".

What is clouding the waters is that the effects aren't consistent, so sorting out what is "Long Covid", and what is some other random malady gets difficult. There is also the "stress" factor affecting peoples health. Not so much the physical infection and subsequent damage, but the worry and stress (about your own or loved ones health) can have effects. We know long term stress can be a factor in heart disease, and PTSD is a real thing as well. It's not "all in your mind" if there are actual physical symptoms caused by this.

Now if you want to do some light reading, here is the NZ AEFI (Adverse Effects Following Immunisation) summary from last month.
Safety Report #36 ? 6 November 2021

Basically thousands of reports of "minor" side effects. some more serious, and ONE death that can be linked to the vaccine. Interesting is the reported deaths (in the 3 weeks after vaccination) are significantly less than might be expected  (by about 50%). Suggested reason is that Drs aren't recommending vaccination for "very frail" patients, that are most likely to die with or without the vaccine. If you have cancer and 3 months to live, the risk / benefit isn't really there. So a lot of "expected" deaths didn't get vaccinated in their final weeks.

So far the heart inflammation appears to be the only side effect that's rising above the "background noise", and that's only a 50% increase above the normal risk. If NZ normally sees ~100 cases a year, we might see ~150 this year? So even if you suffer that side effect, you can't be sure it was actually the vaccine  2/3 chance you were just going to get it anyway. And chances of dying from it appear to be 1 in 7 million doses, from local real world numbers.

The VAERS / AEFI systems are inherently not 100% accurate, but they look at the overall trends, and compare that to the "expected" numbers. So far the heart inflammation is the only thing that has stood out from the crowd. Sure people have had heart attacks or a stroke a week after getting the vaccine, and that raises questions. But when they analyse the whole picture, it's to be expected that 100-150 people are expected to suffer that event without the vaccine. Sucks if you are in that ~100, but statistically it was going to happen to someone.

So apply your logic to the covid19, If those over 75 contracted the virus and died were they not going to die anyways?  They already had other cormabidities, so they were going to die at some time. Sucks to be them. 250+ million people have contracted the virus and survived, 5 million have not survived the virus. How many of the 5M had other cormabidities? 80% is the number I read. They have reached the end of their life span. The average age for us humans is in the 80's now. So now we have 1M died from the virus and yes there are long term problems from the virus.   Yet millions and millions have died from the lock down effects.  Starvation, Suicide, Drug overdoses, Mental health is at an all time high.

Applying your logic directly to myself, I'll offer you that while I'm sure many have suffered from mandates forcing them not to have contact with friends and family or inability to pursue their lifestyles, etc., etc... In my case and my wifes too, we are very self-contained people, so other than not seeing GK's as much and no world travels, we've been doing our thing everyday. Between my shop and our woods & farm life goes on unless I'm dead from covid, of course, so we got the shots because we believe the numbers, comorbidities yes, but no covid here, knock on wood.
I have coronary heart disease but what I don't have is covid-19. Seems simple enough to me?
The two main places in my life I worry much about covid-19 (or the Russians ;D or the Chinese ;D or the terrorists ;D) is here in this thread and when I read the news and watch the news- otherwise I do my thing.
So far, age and other crap aside, it doesn't suck to be me. 8)  

[kantuckid]

Ah, a donation.

Be it Bill or the guvment they take our money and then dole it back to us as if it were a gift to humanity. Kind of like the banks and insurance companies who "donate to all those great causes" :D Guess where that money comes from? 

[kantuckid]

Gary-

Let's just say that the fog of war often causes the authors of such books, who write from an "I am in the trenches" or an "Only I have all the real answers" perspective, either don't have the whole story, can't see the whole story (bias), or can't tell the entire tale in an unbalanced manner.  Kennedy is well-known as a vaccine denyer/attacker, even well before Covid.  I mean, c'mon...you won't read the New York Times! ;) :D  So I think it's OK if I miss JFK Jr.'s book.  Meant all in good fun!

"Just for arguments sake", I'll throw out there have been some rather large exceptions to your point-Ernie Pyle's book written during WWII is an exception as are some others that gathered information in the heat of the moment. He became the voice of the American soldier as it were and got a Pulitzer prize for his work. One of the better Pulitzer's IMO. Some more recently suck if reality matters.
 But, I agree with your point, overall.  ;D

[Stephen1]

Protect the vulnerable and let the economy run.

While that sounds good, in practice how do you actually protect the vulnerable? They account for maybe 30% of the population, once you take age / weight / diabetes / cancer / high blood pressure etc into account. Sorry kids, you can't see Gran for the next couple of years? The best way to keep the economy running is to get rid of the dang virus, so people can travel / eat out / attend events without worrying about getting sick, or bringing the virus home to infect one of those vulnerable folks we are trying to protect.

Here's a report from "on the ground" in Fiji. Being an Island like NZ they had largely dodged the bullet, and only had 4 deaths up until the Delta outbreak. But they got hit hard by that and are now at nearly 700 dead because it wasn't practical for them to lock down like NZ did at the start of the Delta outbreak. They don't have a lot of $$, so folks had to keep going to work, and of course the virus spreads. Instead they went all in with vaccinations, and now have over 90% of eligible folks vaccinated. New cases are now down to single figures daily, and life gets back to normal. The vulnerable are now pretty well protected as the vaccine is working well enough across the whole population, and they can safely get their economy going again.

Covid-19: Kiwi in Fiji says island nation is 'living proof' vaccination works | Stuff.co.nz

That is basically the "end game" for the vaccination program. It would be great if the vaccine was more effective as we could squash the numbers with a lower % vaccinated.  But it is what it is. It's still the best tool we have to both protect the vulnerable, AND allow the economy to get back to normal(ish).

Not much in the way of facts, just a news article. 
Very simple for a small population. Isolated Island.
How do you handle the rest of the world? 
How do you Vaccinate the entire world at 90% in a timely manner? Impossible.
Put more effort into early treatments, more effort into World information hotlines for DR and Public Health about Early Treatments , so they know whats working whats not by different Dr and scientists around the country and the world. After almost 2 years of covid  we should have early treatments by now.

 
 

[Ianab]

The isolated Island thing was a big factor in controlling the original virus outbreak. Australia / NZ / Singapore were all able to do that, and mostly avoid the early waves of infection. But once the Delta variant got loose in the local populations, it's proven impossible to control. Border controls are then almost irrelevant, because it's spreading person to person locally. One extra case arriving makes little difference compared to the 1,000 local cases. 

Fiji has a population of over 1 million, so it's not some tiny semi-deserted Island. Once the Delta got established in the local population, they were seeing over 1,000 new cases a day, which was a huge problem with limited medical facilities. That's a fact. Closing off all travel at that point would make zero difference. Yet now they are under 10 cases a day, and you can't claim that's because everyone's now been infected and are naturally immune. They have only recorded 58,000 cases in a population of 1 million (~5%). 

Here is the actual numbers for Fiji over the whole outbreak. Basically nothing before Delta came along, that's'down to the remote Island advantage. Then BAM, they got hit hard by the Delta virus. Now cases are back to almost zero. What changed? Only factor that has changed is the vaccine. 
Fiji COVID: 52,562 Cases and 697 Deaths - Worldometer

I agree that we also need better treatments, but viral diseases have always been difficult to treat. Even the new drugs specifically designed to treat Covid are only partially effective. It's good that Drs now have some useful treatments they can use, but they aren't like antibiotics that are 99% effective against bacteria. Vaccination to prevent the disease has always been more successful (Polio / Smallpox etc). 

Can we vaccinate everyone in the world? Actually there is no reason we can't. The vaccines are now in plentiful supply, and there is no reason for any developed country not to be over 90% vaccinated. A lot of developing countries already are, because they realise they have limited medical systems. Keeping people out of hospital with a simple is simply more efficient than trying to treat thousands of sick. 

[Paul_H]

Any ideas how the Omicron got into these countries like Australia and others that are locked down and very militant on allowing only vaccinated to travel?
Another question is how do they determine it is all Omicron now and not the original or the other variants? Do old variants fade into obscurity like child actors or do they still pop up?

And how did Omicron budge ahead of Xi?

[Don P]

Delta is the main concern currently.

I heard some numbers on the way home the other day. Rounding them off, over 160 million Americans have been vaccinated, under 1600 have died from the vaccine, 160,000 unvaccinated Americans have died since July. Those are unnecessary deaths. Demographically, they run around 4:1 Republican and more rural than pre vaccine.

Natural immunity has proven to be less than good, possibly less than no good against the new variant .

[Paul_H]

Thank goodness it's mild because they figure the vaccine won't be effective either

[doctorb]

Point well made, Kantuckid.

[SwampDonkey]

Any ideas how the Omicron got into these countries like Australia and others that are locked down and very militant on allowing only vaccinated to travel?
Another question is how do they determine it is all Omicron now and not the original or the other variants? Do old variants fade into obscurity like child actors or do they still pop up?

And how did Omicron budge ahead of Xi?

Missed it in testing, may not have had enough incubation time before the traveller was tested before boarding a flight. I know the first two cases in Ottawa were found when tested on arrival.
They do gene sequencing to determine which variant. The more of one variant that shows up in the test tells them which is more prevalent.
Depends on how competitive they are.
Omicron is probably more infectious/transmissible. A variant becomes a concern when it exhibits features of increased infectivity and/or transmissibility.
Variants