Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[doc henderson]

if mild enough, it could be better than a vaccine, and everyone will get it.  only time will tell.

[SwampDonkey]

the new case rate is similar, but the 7 days average is lower as it was not on its way up a long steep slope.  

Day before cases were ~24,000. That's the nature of data over time, you get a jump up and a serious fall down, but the trends are what is relevant. But what is the trend, upward or downward and how much? So you normalize it.  Day to day is sometimes a wide difference, or sometimes close, end of the month will be more telling. Look at how varied the day to day cases are in the last 4 months. Jump way up, fall way down within a day or 2. The point was to show that it's not 'more infections than it's been before'. ;)

[kantuckid]

Given this discussion posting charts and facts: I just finished reading an article in WSJ about the NFL/Antonio Brown situ wherein his former chef turned him in for a bogus, covid vaccination shot card, two other players, same Tampa team got caught too. The discussion that follows by subscribers is even more interesting for me as it revolves around the checks and balances being used. It mentions the VAERS system which I know zero about in my small world. Mentioned is an anesthesiologist who sent in a bogus report that the flu vaccine had turned him into the Incredible Hulk. The CDC removed that saying it was made up.
Cheating on a covid shot card seems easy to me compared to the fake DL & passport businesses that have been around a long time. With jobs on the line among other "life important things" it seems to me these covid factoids (like seen above) will become less reliable?
"Just the facts" might become "facts as they seem" as these mandates evolve?
Ten cases of the new omicron bug in the USA and growing no doubt-what does the future bring for new lockdowns in the USA. Interesting times await us?
Long time back I read that you could drive up to the right spot in LA, CA and have a bogus DL & Passport for the right price-in minutes or few hours too. 
With jobs and such on the line, plus our mobility to pursue travel for many reasons, we will see this "covid cheating" take quantum leaps. 

[SwampDonkey]

There is certainly some BS floating around. The give away is nothing to back it up.

They put up big alarming headlines to draw you in and find that it's a bunch of nothing. Lots of that on video or streaming sights galore.  Used to be a fellow called Fleacey Moss in the tech sector. Was always making big announcements. After a few that never lived up to scrutiny, we would then call him "Fleacey Fluff", like that drier lint you clean every time you dry clothes. :D

[21incher]

A couple actual facts  about covid l now know:

1 The vaccine doesn't work

2 The vaccine  has long term side effects. 

3 Covid is like the drug dealer on the street with a gun trying to rob you. Sometimes he will shoot and miss, sometimes he will shoot and wound you, and sometimes he will get a good shot off and kill you.

4 If covid  doesn't  kill you it makes you stronger. 

5 After covid all food tastes like the white glue you ate in kindergarten 

Your results may be different.  Ok back to the grandma's gossiping about  their soap opera facts.

[SwampDonkey]

1) efficacy reduced over time, but effective thus far since most severe cases are unvaccinated. Boosters can increase efficacy. Where's your numbers that shows larger % of vaccinated in hospital. You have none. Zip.

2) possibly very low numbers of cases of severe side effects, no evidence for large numbers of incidents. Some side effects preventable with proper admin of vaccine (aspirate).

3) pretty much, but better chance with vaccine. No 100% guarantee, never was.

4) take your chances either way

5) Not in every case. But some temporary, some longer term. Percentage of the population? Any numbers?

Blanket statements without evidence don't fly. ;)

[Claybraker]

1. I have an appointment Thursday to get my booster. That is a provable fact. I can back that up with an email from Walgreens.
2. Okay, that's all I've got for facts.

[Paul_H]

1) efficacy reduced over time, but effective thus far since most severe cases are unvaccinated. Boosters can increase efficacy. Where's your numbers that shows larger % of vaccinated in hospital. You have none. Zip.



Blanket statements without evidence don't fly. ;)

This helps visualize SD's points.

[doc henderson]

WOW 21.

[Ianab]

4 If covid  doesn't  kill you it makes you stronger. 

Actually NOT a fact. 
Covid CAN cause long lasting damage to internal organs like the lungs, heart and brain. Actual scarring and loss of brain tissue, that show up on before / after scans of patients. Things like that do not make you "stronger". 

What is clouding the waters is that the effects aren't consistent, so sorting out what is "Long Covid", and what is some other random malady gets difficult. There is also the "stress" factor affecting peoples health. Not so much the physical infection and subsequent damage, but the worry and stress (about your own or loved ones health) can have effects. We know long term stress can be a factor in heart disease, and PTSD is a real thing as well. It's not "all in your mind" if there are actual physical symptoms caused by this. 

Now if you want to do some light reading, here is the NZ AEFI (Adverse Effects Following Immunisation) summary from last month. 
Safety Report #36 ? 6 November 2021

Basically thousands of reports of "minor" side effects. some more serious, and ONE death that can be linked to the vaccine. Interesting is the reported deaths (in the 3 weeks after vaccination) are significantly less than might be expected  (by about 50%). Suggested reason is that Drs aren't recommending vaccination for "very frail" patients, that are most likely to die with or without the vaccine. If you have cancer and 3 months to live, the risk / benefit isn't really there. So a lot of "expected" deaths didn't get vaccinated in their final weeks. 

So far the heart inflammation appears to be the only side effect that's rising above the "background noise", and that's only a 50% increase above the normal risk. If NZ normally sees ~100 cases a year, we might see ~150 this year? So even if you suffer that side effect, you can't be sure it was actually the vaccine  2/3 chance you were just going to get it anyway. And chances of dying from it appear to be 1 in 7 million doses, from local real world numbers. 

The VAERS / AEFI systems are inherently not 100% accurate, but they look at the overall trends, and compare that to the "expected" numbers. So far the heart inflammation is the only thing that has stood out from the crowd. Sure people have had heart attacks or a stroke a week after getting the vaccine, and that raises questions. But when they analyse the whole picture, it's to be expected that 100-150 people are expected to suffer that event without the vaccine. Sucks if you are in that ~100, but statistically it was going to happen to someone. 

P.S. The full story of the Incredible Hulk VAERS report tells how the guy that reported it was actually contacted with some "follow up questions", as any report of serious side effects should be. When asked if he had really turned into the Hulk he had to admit he hadn't, and was just testing if anyone actually read the reports. After that it was deleted by mutual agreement. 

[SwampDonkey]

Canada data up to Nov 13 (there is a 3 week delay in sequencing tests). Vaccination is not responsible for all the protection. But how could you even measure the other factors? Masking, distancing, and washing are effective, but how could you collect that data other than just observation and assumption. Vaccination is a tangible marker, you either are or you're not, no grey area. Although flawed it may well be, since it's not the total picture. 76% of the population is fully vaccinated, yet 24% is unvaccinated and have most the infections, hospitalizations and deaths. It can't get any easier to demonstrate that vaccination works (along with measures mentioned above).  






source: COVID-19 daily epidemiology update - Canada.ca

[kantuckid]

Good job Ianab! 
Medical statistics are tough for we public to sort out, in terms of what's useful to our own person or persons. Just this week I read an article from a web media source quoting statistics from an actual medical study of people over age 75, who use over the counter Prilosec/ Omeprazole (in my case), I call it Larry the Cable Guy pill :D- for heartburn acid reflux control. Said in this large study that mostly males who used the drug were showing increased signs of dementia. 
I could fester up about those facts or stay in acid control mode and hope for the best. My last years GI scopes showed zero issues, not even a polyp at my age is nice indeed. 
Reality tells me that I take 10mg whereas the study was towards the OTC version which is 20mg, but in my case I take it daily, not a two week limited dosage. 
Reality also tells me that my mind "seems" OK-that's up for grabs by some's opinion but not mine.  :D

Thus, just because CNN says a few people's heart had issues, or myriad other stuff, I'll not fret when I vaccinate, and I didn't and I'm here to tell my side of things, which many my age are not. Fact-Thousands of seniors are now in LALA land.  
Anecdotal factoids are not going to determine my life. 
CNN : All media outlets have their clowns though...
I do value honest, informed medical professionals opinions. My favorite, FWIW, is that girl doc from AR who's as sweet as can be and stays on track with her realities from her patients in her own practice. Certainly not a worldly opinion but not political either. Plus she's damned good looking, so I take in every word she says... 8) 
 

[Stephen1]

4 If covid  doesn't  kill you it makes you stronger.  

Actually NOT a fact.
Covid CAN cause long lasting damage to internal organs like the lungs, heart and brain. Actual scarring and loss of brain tissue, that show up on before / after scans of patients. Things like that do not make you "stronger".

What is clouding the waters is that the effects aren't consistent, so sorting out what is "Long Covid", and what is some other random malady gets difficult. There is also the "stress" factor affecting peoples health. Not so much the physical infection and subsequent damage, but the worry and stress (about your own or loved ones health) can have effects. We know long term stress can be a factor in heart disease, and PTSD is a real thing as well. It's not "all in your mind" if there are actual physical symptoms caused by this.

Now if you want to do some light reading, here is the NZ AEFI (Adverse Effects Following Immunisation) summary from last month.
Safety Report #36 ? 6 November 2021

Basically thousands of reports of "minor" side effects. some more serious, and ONE death that can be linked to the vaccine. Interesting is the reported deaths (in the 3 weeks after vaccination) are significantly less than might be expected  (by about 50%). Suggested reason is that Drs aren't recommending vaccination for "very frail" patients, that are most likely to die with or without the vaccine. If you have cancer and 3 months to live, the risk / benefit isn't really there. So a lot of "expected" deaths didn't get vaccinated in their final weeks.

So far the heart inflammation appears to be the only side effect that's rising above the "background noise", and that's only a 50% increase above the normal risk. If NZ normally sees ~100 cases a year, we might see ~150 this year? So even if you suffer that side effect, you can't be sure it was actually the vaccine  2/3 chance you were just going to get it anyway. And chances of dying from it appear to be 1 in 7 million doses, from local real world numbers.

The VAERS / AEFI systems are inherently not 100% accurate, but they look at the overall trends, and compare that to the "expected" numbers. So far the heart inflammation is the only thing that has stood out from the crowd. Sure people have had heart attacks or a stroke a week after getting the vaccine, and that raises questions. But when they analyse the whole picture, it's to be expected that 100-150 people are expected to suffer that event without the vaccine. Sucks if you are in that ~100, but statistically it was going to happen to someone.

So apply your logic to the covid19, If those over 75 contracted the virus and died were they not going to die anyways?  They already had other cormabidities, so they were going to die at some time. Sucks to be them. 250+ million people have contracted the virus and survived, 5 million have not survived the virus. How many of the 5M had other cormabidities? 80% is the number I read. They have reached the end of their life span. The average age for us humans is in the 80's now. So now we have 1M died from the virus and yes there are long term problems from the virus.   Yet millions and millions have died from the lock down effects.  Starvation, Suicide, Drug overdoses, Mental health is at an all time high. 

[doc henderson]

I do not totally disagree with your comments but has to be in context.  it is great to throw number as though it was only the folks at the end of life we lost.  My wife lost a friend colleague 65 y/o pharmacist.  He hosted the Christmas party the year prior to covid and has grandchildren.  He would have retired, but they needed him at work.  2 weeks on a vent and dead.  pre-vaccine.  Even 80 years olds often want to live another day, if able.  The drugs, violence and mental health problems have as much to do with the handling and politics of the virus, not that virus itself.  If you do not want to get the vaccine, OK.  But if you are arguing that the world would be better off or even the same without it, I think you are wrong.  It was stated it does not work.  Well, it does not prevent all disease and has some side effects.  But it shows reduced severity and reduced death.  Many people have more money now than pre covid, as the government is handing it out, lots of jobs but people choosing not to work.  make more money staying home.  Many of my Doc friends talk about PTSD.  people have huge expectations and not all realistic.  had a recent patient, 400 pounds, older than me, professional driver.  Been sick a week and was back in town so wanted to get checked out.  almost teary eyed telling me he can barely breath.  Dx covid, x-ray looking bad already.  have to give the antibody in less than 10 days from onset.  to send him as OP means two days sicker, and in 3 days he no longer qualifies.  We are swamped seeing 100 patients a day over our usual 65.  We decided it was best to keep him to give the monoclonal.  takes 20 minutes infused, and 1 hour observation.  I went to d/c and he is *pithed because he had been there so long.  I guess he was doing us a favor.  Seatbelts do not save every person in a car crash; shall we toss all those out too.  

[Southside]

Many people have more money now than pre covid, as the government is handing it out,

And it's purchasing power has greatly decreased as a result.  So one actually has less wealth.  

[doc henderson]

yes and if you go back to work and everyone else rides on the wagon, then you have even less wealth, if you then make less money and things cost more.  the shut downs and politics have driven up supply issues and prices.  

[Paul_H]

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination "Official" Messaging - Then and Now on Vimeo

Dr Fauci speaks about the benefits of vaccines. I have to admit I missed it the first time. Maybe there is hope but I'm confuses about Bill Gates role in all of this. He isn't a doctor or a scientist is he?

[Gary_C]

Medical statistics are tough for we public to sort out, in terms of what's useful to our own person or persons. Just this week I read an article from a web media source quoting statistics from an actual medical study of people over age 75, who use over the counter Prilosec/ Omeprazole (in my case), I call it Larry the Cable Guy pill :D- for heartburn acid reflux control. Said in this large study that mostly males who used the drug were showing increased signs of dementia.
I could fester up about those facts or stay in acid control mode and hope for the best. My last years GI scopes showed zero issues, not even a polyp at my age is nice indeed.
Reality tells me that I take 10mg whereas the study was towards the OTC version which is 20mg, but in my case I take it daily, not a two week limited dosage.
Reality also tells me that my mind "seems" OK-that's up for grabs by some's opinion but not mine.  :D

I am very familiar with that issue over those "acid reflux" pills as my wife was sort of addicted to them for many years and about five years ago was diagnosed with dementia and now Alzheimer's. My wife was taking Nexium and on the day her doctor did the first cognitive test that she scored low on, the doctor told me that some people believe that taking those acid reflux pills cause dementia but that is not true. The doctor went on to say is that a large study had found that if you take acid reflux pills you have about a 38% higher chance of developing dementia than those who do not take the pills. So I had my son look up the study and indeed he found it was true there is no direct link to the acid reflux pills but indeed you would have a significantly higher risk of dementia if you took the pills. 

That was enough for me and I weaned her off the Nexium and took the pills away from her, but it was too late. Once you start down that path there is no turning back. Looking back my wife has no other risk factors for dementia either in genetics or family history. However, her neurologist told us that almost everyone he sees with some form of dementia says the same thing. 

So if you want my advice, I would find another way to reduce your acid reflux issues. For my wife it was not laying down on the couch and napping after meals. Stay upright for some time after meals. Just stay off the acid reflux pills.

[Ianab]

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination "Official" Messaging - Then and Now on Vimeo

Dr Fauci speaks about the benefits of vaccines. I have to admit I missed it the first time. Maybe there is hope but I'm confuses about Bill Gates role in all of this. He isn't a doctor or a scientist is he?

Bill Gates has donated $250 million towards research into Covid treatments. So I guess he's paying for a lot of scientists and Drs. Anyway, that's his role in all of this.

[Paul_H]

Ah, a donation.

[Ricker]

I brought Bill Gates into the discussion. While I do appreciate that he has donated hundreds of millions to covid research, and billions to other charitable purposes, that wasn't the point.

I was trying to get across where we get our information and analysis from matters.  Mr. Gates has plenty to say about covid, how we should prepare for the next pandemic and has quite of bit of influence at the World Health Organization due to the amount of money he donates to it.

The point was he is not a doctor or scientist, he is a software guy.  If my computer is not working Bill is the man.  If my Accuset is giving me trouble woodmizers help is much appreciated. On health issues I will take Doc Henderson's and Doctor B's advice and analysis.  

In the interest of full disclosure, I am not one that buys into the government trying to kill us off with a evil vaccine.  It would be too indiscriminate a killer and the government is relying on those of us working and paying taxes to continue doing so.

[Southside]

Didn't he do something with vaccines in India and Africa before all of this? Didn't work out the way he planned or something? 

[SwampDonkey]

Only thing I heard about his business in Africa, was trying to make medicine affordable, like for HIV where it is in millions of victims. I'm no fan of the guy, but he gets credit where it is due in my book. His ex wife has dished out millions as well, and to the little people, not just to the controllers of information. Not all doctors are great orators, and not everyone with money is just another Henry Ford. How many foresters are on the TV telling the state of things these days on the markets and the state of management? Only fellow up here, is Jim Irving and Mary Keith and neither are foresters. No forester with government heard from in at least 60 years, when my grandmother's cousin was chief forester. The world is full of people wanting to suppress truth and cook up non sense. Always will be.

[doctorb]

Stephen 1

Interesting thoughts in your post.  I would suggest that just because a person is over 75 years old and has a cardiac condition does not equate to a miserable, burdensome life that is about to end.  As a culture, I don't believe that we have taken the more fatalistic view that I interpret from your post.  There are plenty of people here on the Forum that fall into the high risk category for mortality as a result of a Covid-19 infection, and I don't believe that they consider themselves as having played out the string quite yet.

I wholeheartedly agree that mental illness, depression, isolation, economic hardship, and overdoses have all increased markedly since Covid began.  And there are studies that have examined excess deaths that have occurred during Covid that are not directly related to Covid infections.  Whether or not those deaths are from patients not seeking care for other medical issues has not been fully delineated.  But I would ask, do you have a reference documenting your comment...

" Yet millions and millions have died from the lock down effects."

I cannot find statistics that support such a high number of lockdown, but non-Covid infection caused, mortalities.  I am positive that there are certainly deaths in such a category, but I would question whether it is millions and millions.  BTW, do not interpret my question as me being in support of lockdowns.  I am not.

[Gary_C]

Doctorb, I strongly suggest you read the RFK jr. book titled The Real Anthony Fauci and you may find your answer to your question. I read the sample provided by Amazon last night and ordered my copy but today they are only offering a Kindle version of the book.

I already knew many of the facts I read about in the limited sample and can say it's eye opening (and disgusting). I had trouble sleeping last night just thinking about the history of this pandemic.