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Author Topic: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.  (Read 101127 times)

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Offline Southside

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2020, 09:21:53 PM »
Sam's Club, 3:00 PM on a Wednesday. Stock was good on the shelf, but every checkout line was 20 deep and the line to get out of the door was all the way back to the lunch counter.  Normally I would see 10 people at most at all of the check out lines combined. Always several self scans with nobody there. Parking lot was gridlock when I left. 



 
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Offline clearcut

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2020, 09:46:56 PM »
Disneyland is closed until April. 


Offline Jeff

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2020, 09:54:10 PM »
I raked a bunch of my yard today. 
Just call me the midget doctor.
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Ezekiel 22:30

Offline Brucer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2020, 12:55:03 AM »
First of all, thanks to doc henderson for restarting this discussion where more people can read it.

There is a wealth of factual information at the link sprucebunny lists on post #6. I've been tracking the numbers there since mid-January. If you click on the link that says "Case Graphs" you'll get all sorts of information about the course of the disease.

The run on TP is plain silly. That's one commodity where the manufacturers and vendors know exactly how much is going to be used each day, so they usually stock the shelves using a Just-in-Time model. That works fine until a few people panic and clear the shelves. Then everyone else panics and buys up the stuff as soon as the shelves are re-stocked. We bought an extra couple of weeks  supply which we'll keep in reserve.

Our prime minister's wife has the virus after attending a charity even in the UK, attended by 12,000 people. Going to something like that these days is definitely not a good idea.
Bruce    LT40HDG28 bandsaw
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Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2020, 04:40:16 AM »
Must be a lot of folks going into the caves for a few months. :D Why anyone would think TP supply would be cut off I'll never understand. They make the stuff 100 miles from here, not Asia. :D Food stuff would be #1 priority for me, I can't eat paper. ;)
No amount of belief makes something a fact. James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2020, 05:02:27 AM »
First case confirmed in New Brunswick, a woman travelling alone returning from France on a trip.
No amount of belief makes something a fact. James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

Offline DWyatt

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #26 on: March 13, 2020, 07:40:02 AM »
As of yesterday, the Governor closed all school effective 3/16 for 3 weeks. He also shut down all gatherings where 100 or more people were planned to be present. Gosh Darnit that was the woodworking show in Columbus this weekend! >:(

Offline DMcCoy

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #27 on: March 13, 2020, 08:13:29 AM »
Gov. Brown just closed all public schools K-12.  Warned parents to NOT let kids be babysat by someone over 60.  <24 hrs after giving a press conference(9am) leaving them open.  Concerned over kids infecting teachers.
It's the disease triangle, changing the environment is our only tool.  Getting people to co-operate...

Offline Magicman

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #28 on: March 13, 2020, 08:21:03 AM »
All of our state's colleges will take another week of "Spring Break" and then resume classes on the 23rd via online.

Some folks have enough TP, bottled water, and sanitizers for the rest of the year and beyond. :o
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Offline YellowHammer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2020, 08:27:09 AM »
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

The good things about some of the things we are stocking is that they are non perishable and they will be used at some point.  Can't ever have enough toilet paper and Pine Sol.

It will be interesting to see how it affects our business tomorrow.  We are making a few adjustments to hopefully reduce everyone's risk, including our own.




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Offline Don P

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2020, 08:55:19 AM »
My sister wrote overnight, they should be halfway home by now from the holy land. The guides and staff that catered to them are now unemployed, they were the last tour, nothing else is entering. She said they did have the run of the sites and were very well treated and protected which was nice. She had stocked up before leaving so they will probably self quarantine and hole up for a bit. Won't know if it'll be more extensive until they land.
The future is a foreign country, they will do things differently there - Simon Winchester

Offline Wood Shed

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #31 on: March 13, 2020, 09:33:25 AM »
No march madness, no spring training games, whoo! hoo! you teachers three weeks off with pay then it is Easter break, whoo! hoo!

Hopefully they will not close the trail heads here in AZ, if they do I am going home.  :embarassed:
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in. -Greek Proverb

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #32 on: March 13, 2020, 09:33:56 AM »
I am spending about 3 hours a day making sure we are ready.  they are making efforts to slow it down.  if that does not work, we will all get it.  If that happens, we will see that the mortality is much lower than estimated.  otherwise healthy people may have little or no symptoms, so are not included in the group having it and survived unscathed.  so the flu shot is to slow the spread and keep hospitals open.  I feel most people get influenza each year but only a percentage get sick, and of those, the unwell are the ones who do poorly.  we will be ok!  by next year we will have this under control with rapid tests, vaccine and or anti-viral medications.  The well known corona viruses cause cold in kids, and I wonder if there is some cross protection and that is why we are not seeing kids getting it.  If so, Pediatricians are also prob. immune.  Just like drinking water in Mexico, if you are from there you are ok.  there are about 104 serotypes of strep, and after 10 or so, you are prob. immune to all 104.  My kids have never had antibiotics for strep, and are fine and I am sure they had strep and were not symptomatic enough for their "mean" pediatrician Dad to give antibiotics.  My retirement plan received by check for the whole year of funds yesterday.  We put it in while low. (DOW)  do not panic, and forge ahead!  IMHO
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline sprucebunny

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #33 on: March 13, 2020, 09:46:41 AM »
Here is an article by a number cruncher guy.
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium

It suggests that stopping all travel Now and staying home will flatten the curve of infection. Also contains links to Twitter posts by a DR. in Italy that are pretty grim.
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Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #34 on: March 13, 2020, 09:56:09 AM »
It may slow the spread, but if the infectivity does not taper in the spring, we will all get it eventually.  In the beginning the only patients we knew about were critically ill and there fore an exaggerated mortality rate.  If we all had it and the number of deaths stayed the same, then the rate of death would be tiny.  Even if you get the flu shot, you may still get the flu but not be as sick.  If we slow it down, we have time to develop and test drugs, immune therapies, immunizations, ect.  Lots of stuff being used in china, that have not shown any positive effects yet.  basically you develop adult respiratory distress syndrome.  we have been treating it and studying treatment of this for years.  So it might be better if we all got exposed, and some of get sick, and then be over it.  the trouble is half out hospital staff may be off work and then the ED would be unavailable to treat the sick.  we have been preparing for this since 9-11.  about 1/2 of our staff has been to FEMA and trained for potential disasters.
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline Hilltop366

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #35 on: March 13, 2020, 10:11:20 AM »

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #36 on: March 13, 2020, 10:18:45 AM »
regarding testing.  we all have the viral swabs.  must not have a wooden stick handle.  the kits are retained by KDHE, but more labs are getting the kits after being evaluated for quality.  Flu testing is cheap since it is prevalent and been around.  we do a pcr test to include 20 viruses including 3 corona viruses (not the new (novel) virus and this test costs over a thousand dollars.  when everyone is testing + for influenza and we often run out of test kits in a busy year (2017)  and then we just treat based on symptoms.  the thing to remember is there is not treatment specific for corona, so the test is to help know who needs to be quarantined.  We treat the patients with ARDS with support up to and including, a ventilator.  so early testing is for public health folks and not for treatment per se.  If we tested everyone for the covid 18 novel virus, we would at least know what % get sick, and of those the mortality rate.  It can take years to develop a rapid test.  the flu swab takes 20 minutes.  out multi antigen test takes 2 hours and cost over a thousand dollars, and does not cross react with the covid 19 virus.  The world has moved quickly on this out break (pandemic).
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline kantuckid

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #37 on: March 13, 2020, 10:19:01 AM »
Great thread on crown virus, thanks Doc and others!

Another forum I visit has some political polarization that this one has avoided, thanks!
One of the newspapers I read (Lexington, KY Herald-leader) has many purely hateful comments towards certain political persons today. I also read the NYT's and expect such from them but some events, like a pandemic?, shouldn't that be immune I would hope? Enough on that for sure, I hope definitely hope I didn't offend anyone by this.

We did our first at home grocery visit yesterday, 3/12/2020 while I was doing an out of town dental appt.. The dental appt. was very normal excepting to be asked if I'd visited Wuhan, China the medial folks act normal. My student dentist and I agreed that we had to break the habit of rubbing our eyes with our hands. The lady who took me to my dental chair set-up in the student lab, Chair #74 BTW!, happened to be the Dental Assistant supervisor and said the only thing she noticed different of recent was that people were stealing the masks and surgical gloves from all the dispensers when nobody was looking!

Early in the day 3/12/2020 the first (small grocery visit where we mostly buy coffee) was normal shelves. Our later, 8p.m. Walmart visit was like the pics above! Empty shelves!!!
Given that we are a 50 mile RT from a serious grocery store it's a problem to find many staples gone, as in zero on the shelf. No TP, no beans, no water, no dairy, no pasta, no canned stuff and the list goes on... We saw many young adult males, obviously sent by their wives, pushing carts filled to the brim with huge amounts of everything known to man! I'm saying grocery orders easily in the $300 range. Also lots of order pickers for the pick up business.  We re-visited the Kroger store for a few items to see that over the time I'd been to my dental visit in another city that they had been hit hard too!
Have we gone zonkers?
Our guv did the similar school closing thing. As a retied educator we had to question the idea to keep the school cafeterias open so the kids can eat? When you live in a mostly rural state exactly how do the brainy leaders think those kids are gonna get to that food miles from home? 

Why close the court system? Can't the numbers be kept mostly small?
I see the girly clubs are open and most food places.
I got an email from Red Lobster telling me how they're keeping it clean. Give me a break! as I'd hoped it was clean there to begin with. Some of this mentality is purely stupid?

I love sports like many people. It seems to me they might have been able to play basketball to a handfull of family members and kept playing? That was the original plan here in KY to allow 4  family per player for the state tournament but it's suspended for now. Maybe I'm wrong but other than the crowds why stop it all?

Kan=Kansas;tuck=Kentucky;kid=what I'm not

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #38 on: March 13, 2020, 10:29:05 AM »
so they isolated the actual virus.  definite help, but will still take years to break it apart.  should be the start of treatment and testing advance.  they are talking about getting plasma from people who test positive and survive (the vast majority) and use the antibodies they produced in response (hyper immune globulins)  but remember the ARDS is an inflammatory response so enhancing the immune response could in theory make the condition worse.  this is why we use steroids in asthma to quell the immune response (allergy, fighting a virus) and decrease the asthma (over reaction) symptoms.  a lot of stuff reported as helping the ARDS in China has been disproven for years in the world scientific community.
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline Jeff

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #39 on: March 13, 2020, 12:33:01 PM »
This topic some how inadvertently got quarantined.   Feel free to roam on.:)
Just call me the midget doctor.
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