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Author Topic: Lumber prices  (Read 4482 times)

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Online Southside

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #80 on: March 02, 2021, 01:20:04 PM »
Finding help is a full time job in itself.  Had an employee tell me yesterday that they "need to work less" as there are "too many life things to do".  Constant govt money being passed out at every level is going to destroy the workforce as a whole.  
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Offline Billbob

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #81 on: April 08, 2021, 06:36:26 PM »
So if pine mills are getting rich(and they are) why aren't people joining the party?  Certainly there are no impediments such as onerous permits, regulations, insurance edicts, and workman's compensation attorneys that make it so unattractive an endeavor that even greed is an insufficient motivator?

If you built a mill could you find anyone worth hiring to work in it or has it become beneath our dignity to actually produce something besides computer code?
"If you built a mill could you find anyone worth hiring to work in it or has it become beneath our dignity to actually produce something besides computer code?"

That. Right. There.
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Offline Nodak Andy

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #82 on: April 09, 2021, 08:20:34 AM »
One thing that I haven't seen mentioned here in this thread that I believe plays a large role in our current lumber prices is interest rates....  Interest rates, until recently have been insanely low(and they still are low relatively speaking)...   One of my co-workers refinanced his house about 6 months ago.  His bank did it, with no closing costs, no appraisal, and a 2% interest rate on a 15 year fixed loan.....  

I recently read an article, and I forget where it was, that laid it all out and it made fairly good sense to me.  Some of the stuff they said I couldn't be sure of, as I don't live anywhere even remotely close to a big production mill, but it made sense.  The basic breakdown of the article stated this :  In the last 18 months or so, lumber prices have gone through the roof because of two things.  
1st-  covid shutdowns affected mills, construction companies and basically everyone else in the world....  with production from mills being down, this drove prices up due to lower supplies of lumber.  Looking back now, tarriffs most likely played a role in driving prices up as well.  

2nd-  Seeing the extreme rise in retail lumber prices, mills figured that housing starts would slow down because people wouldn't be willing to pay that extra 10-20k for lumber to build a house, so they slowed down production (this is the part I don't know how to verify because I don't live anywhere near a production mill).  What they didn't account for was that interest rates have been SO LOW.  People are looking at the plans for the new house, figuring in the extra cost of lumber and looking at interest rates and it doesn't bother them because with those low interest rates, their monthly payments will still be what they consider affordable.  

To be honest, I find that last paragraph to be very possible, mainly because of what I see with people around where I live and their boat payments( I use the boats example because my side business is associated with the fishing industry).... It seems that folks these days just don't care about the total purchase price of a boat.  As long as they can afford the monthly payments, they will buy a $120,000 Ranger boat to go catch walleye for 5 months of the year until the lakes freeze...  I've seen MANY people who have no business buying a $120k boat get one because the dealerships are willing to do 20 and 30 year loans on them, so that makes the monthly payment affordable....  It's really quite crazy.

I wish I could remember where I read that article as I'm sure I'm missing something, but it all made pretty good sense to me.  My wife and I are having a house built this summer, and we are having to deal with the lumber price jumps.  The crazy thing is, I think we are going to see lumber prices drop pretty soon.  Just in the last few months the interest rates on a 15 year loan have come up almost 1/4%... eventually it will get high enough that folks will not be comfortable with their estimated monthly payments including that extra 10-20k in lumber and things will slow down  and drive the price of lumber down...  

Sorry if I'm rambling...  this is just what it looks like to me and I could be completely wrong.  

Offline mike_belben

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #83 on: April 09, 2021, 10:53:52 AM »
In a capitalistic free market economy, interest is the necessary charge a lender must require to bear the risk of the borrower's default.   The higher the risk the higher the interest must be.  Any deviation from that simple rule will produce economic disaster in time.  More risk, more charge for me to take the risk.


When the federal reserve [guaranteed repayer] pushes local lending interest rates down by manipulating the overnight and interbank interest rates, they are causing the lenders of the entire nation to mis-price local lending risks. Shaky borrowers should be paying TEN percent or more to account for their high default rates.  Many borrowers should be paying loan shark rates because theyre just plain bums who manipulate the bankruptcy system over and over.  They only repay those they fear will physically hurt them.


Super low rates causes everyone.. Especially the shaky borrower, to borrow cheap money.  It causes the banks to be fully lent out to volatile borrowers and eventually it causes huge shakeups where many banks lose much money and govt is begged to step in ala 2008. Like ford/chevy/dodge begging for tarp funds etc.  Well stop selling zero percent interest cars dummies.



Its a setup designed to fail and bring about socialism.  Interest rates have been falsified continually by the fed since the greenspan put of oct 1987.  It is a component of an attack strategy on america.   Lenin said debauch the currency in 1919.  On the 100th anniversary covid did just that.  The continual crises, the drugs, the death by taxes and regs and codes, the political civil war, the everyone must be a manager culture, the televised decay and a hundred other demoralizing elements.  It all adds up. Its called encirclement.  Aka we are surrounded.  Brezhnev said "the situation is normalized."

Normalization is the 4th and final stage of subversion and thats why "new normal" is the buzz phrase it is now.. Because we all must be convinced to peacefully accept this is how its gonna stay.  I am only in better shape for this condition than others because ive been preparing a decade for it.   Its gotten awfully hard to prepare now.
Psalm 37:16

Offline moodnacreek

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #84 on: April 09, 2021, 11:56:56 AM »
And we will hang our self's with our own rope.

Offline Magicman

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #85 on: April 09, 2021, 01:43:14 PM »
 

 
Here is a new home just being completed that was built entirely with framing lumber and timbers that I sawed in November.

There is another that the foundation slab has been poured and construction will begin soon.
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Online Walnut Beast

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #86 on: April 09, 2021, 02:57:53 PM »
Was it used green. No code ?

Offline mike_belben

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #87 on: April 09, 2021, 02:58:33 PM »
Thats a beautiful thing lynn.. You are definitely part of the solution. 


How did the builders get around the stamp/grade/code situation?
Psalm 37:16

Offline Magicman

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #88 on: April 09, 2021, 05:58:25 PM »
The framing lumber was stickered and air dried.  There was no stamp/grade requirement.

Several years ago when the number of homes built with my sawn framing lumber reached 20, I quit keeping a count.
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Offline Ed_K

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #89 on: April 10, 2021, 07:59:03 AM »
 Sorry Mudfarmer for not getting back to your question. The last quote I got was $240. for #1 sawlogs. I watch the price on the stock market down in N.Y. and yesterday a Thousand B.F. of spf went to $1139.40  :o. And the talkers on Blomburg are saying interest rates are going to go up soon.
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Offline Mattjohndeere2

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #90 on: April 10, 2021, 08:50:13 AM »
The framing lumber was stickered and air dried.  There was no stamp/grade requirement.

Several years ago when the number of homes built with my sawn framing lumber reached 20, I quit keeping a count.
Magician, working on a similar project with my own house up here in upstate ny. Trying not to buy anything since the dang price is so high. One of the hemlock logs I sawed I found powderpost beetles. They've been emerging this week and I'm finding them on other peices of wood. I have timbor on the way, other than that and kiln sterilizing, have you had to deal with beetles in any of your ventures?

Offline Magicman

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #91 on: April 10, 2021, 09:06:18 AM »
I generally never see the lumber that I saw after I leave the site.  I can only give some generalized recommendations regarding proper lumber care.
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Offline BandsawBen

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #92 on: April 10, 2021, 09:44:33 AM »
I cut out a house this winter for a family member. He helped sticking and stacking as it came off the mill. It was mostly hemlock and some pine for board and battens. The logs were free to him, his father cut them with a clark cable skidder. His quote from the local lumber company was around 20k for the framing materials. (Probably way more now) My bill to him was 2300. He was pretty happy with that price. He is still a little nervous about the price of everything else but,

 is gonna press on. Hes 26 and this is gonna be his 1st house. Picture is some of his nice hemlock logs in queue. Local building code currently allows for unstamped rough cut lumber. Iam sure with as many mills around now that will probably change soon.

Offline Don P

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Re: Lumber prices
« Reply #93 on: April 10, 2021, 01:40:43 PM »
Just some more grading and code stuff. To my knowledge no building code excludes rough sawn lumber, planing is not a requirement. Grading rules do stipulate the amount of skip, tearout, etc on lumber that is planed but again do not require planing. Bear in mind that if you go to full dimension you probably need to look at your fasteners and go up in size to get proper penetration.

It is a good idea to borate lumber even if it is kiln dried, it is just another layer of protection and cheap protection at that.
The future is a foreign country, they will do things differently there - Simon Winchester


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