Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[Roxie]

Hilltop!  :D :D :D :D :D

[doctorb]

Like SwampDonkey above, I can foresee a lot of comparisons to past annual flu related death statistics once this is done.  May not be an apples to apples comparison, as the flu has never been this infectious, never required this kind of social disruption to prevent spread, almost never caused the death of younger, healthier individuals, and never required the use of so much medical equipment, personnel, and ICU time.

I think it interesting that the original projections were statistically based upon only 50% of the population adopting the social distancing guidelines.  I don't know about you, but I don't know anybody who hasn't taken this extremely seriously.  It certainly appears, although early, that our efforts are being rewarded, which is fantastic.

My goal has been to NOT get this disease on this first wave of infection.  No prophylaxis against it.  No treatment for it.  If I do get infected in the future waves, I hope that there are some treatments that help "soften the results".

[gspren]

My goal has been to NOT get this disease on this first wave of infection.  No prophylaxis against it.  No treatment for it.  If I do get infected in the future waves, I hope that there are some treatments that help "soften the results".

My feelings exactly! I'm the same age as doctorb and have been through my share of illnesses, if or more likely when I get this I hope they have established treatments that work.

[SwampDonkey]

Local paper mill trying to help out with paper products for masks, disinfectant wipes and gowns. Product is being tested first.

Potential mask and gown makers turn to Maine and N.B. pulp and paper company | CBC News

[brianJ]

My goal has been to get a low initial dose barely notice Im sick and keep on with life.   Easier for someone that lives alone and has not missed a day of work due to sickness in 15 years plus. 

[Bill]

Reminds me of past history -

Long time ago - while still in school - I wanted some money - so my folks said " We're not stopping you from getting a job . . .  "

Well I ended up working at car dealer mostly in the new car parking lot. I worked outside 3-4 hours a day, summer/winter, sun/rain, snow/ice and never got sick.

Eventually I got out of school and got an office job   :( . The first fall I immediately got sick and told the Dr that I was dying . He asked why and I said that I never got sick working outside but now inside - protected - I was really sick . He replied - nope - that outside I got plenty of fresh air, sunshine and UV rays killed the bad bugs/germs . Its inside I was in danger . . .

So - imho - the simple way to beat this would be to give everyone a chain saw, cans of gas and bar oil, and send them into the woods  ;D ;D ;D

[alan gage]

So - imho - the simple way to beat this would be to give everyone a chain saw, cans of gas and bar oil, and send them into the woods  ;D ;D ;D

But then there would be a shortage of prosthetics.

Alan

[alan gage]

I don't know about you, but I don't know anybody who hasn't taken this extremely seriously.

I've been very surprised at how everyone seems to have gotten on board. We've had customers come in who I expected to really complain about the measures being put into place by the government, and a couple of them started to, then stopped and said "well, I guess we do need to slow down the spread." This was early on. I haven't heard anyone say anything against it for a couple weeks.

Alan

[doctorb]

brianJ - You bring up an interesting point about this virus.  Is the severity of the disease related to the initial exposure to the pathogen?  My bet is no, but thats just an opinion.  As we have no immunity against this virus, it may take longer for the symptoms of the disease to show up with a smaller initial inoculation.  But once it starts replicating inside of your cells, it's your bodies' reaction to the infection that may differ from one of us to the next.  Maybe someday we will be able to detect ahead of time who among us will get a mild case, and who will get a severe illness.

[Ianab]

The first fall I immediately got sick and told the Dr that I was dying . He asked why and I said that I never got sick working outside but now inside - protected - I was really sick . He replied - nope - that outside I got plenty of fresh air, sunshine and UV rays killed the bad bugs/germs . Its inside I was in dange

I can agree with that. 
I used to surf regularly all year round, and some mornings I'd be melting frost off the car to drive to the beach. But you are then out in the fresh air, and usually giving the sinuses a good saline rinse. Seldom got sick. You don't catch a "cold" from getting cold. You catch a cold from keeping warm inside, near someone who already has the virus. Simply getting cold gives you hypothermia, not a cold. 

[SwampDonkey]

Singer, song writer, John Prine was taken by the virus recently.

Johnny Cash, in his autobiography 'Cash' (2003), wrote, "I don't listen to music much at the farm, unless I'm going into songwriting mode and looking for inspiration. Then I'll put on something by the writers I've admired and used for years — Rodney Crowell, John Prine, Guy Clark, and the late Steve Goodman are my Big Four".  

In 2018, Prine had a major comeback album, "The Tree of Forgiveness", with new songs that hadn't been written and performed for 13 years. Reached number 5 on the top 200 charts, the best he ever achieved.

[47sawdust]

Swampdonkey,
 John Prine....what a genius. Some of the funniest and most heartfelt music ever written.I've always been in awe of how one man has those lyrics in his head.Johnny Cash's list is right on the money in my book.
 Thanks for bringing it up.
 Blessings to all of you,
 47sawdust

[Jeff]

Just now...


 

[Resonator]

When I die let my ashes float down the Green River

Let my soul roll on up to the Rochester dam

I'll be halfway to Heaven with Paradise waitin'

Just five miles away from wherever I am.

And daddy won't you take me back to Muhlenburg County

Down by the Green River where Paradise lay

Well I'm sorry my son, but your too late in asking

Mister Peabody's coal train just hauled it away.

Paradise - Recorded by The Seldom Scene, Jim and Jesse, and many other Bluegrass bands.

Written by John Prine, may he rest in peace.

[Old Greenhorn]

When I die let my ashes float down the Green River

Let my soul roll on up to the Rochester dam

I'll be halfway to Heaven with Paradise waitin'

Just five miles away from wherever I am.

And daddy won't you take me back to Muhlenburg County

Down by the Green River where Paradise lay

Well I'm sorry my son, but your too late in asking

Mister Peabody's coal train just hauled it away.

Paradise - Recorded by The Seldom Scene, Jim and Jesse, and many other Bluegrass bands.

Written by John Prine, may he rest in peace.

One of my favorite tunes recorded so nicely by so many and I never tire of hearing it. I never met John, but I have some common friends with him and they are all extremely saddened at the loss of such a giant of a writer and performer. This virus is taking it's toll and we have a ways to travel yet.

[doctorb]

John Prine-

I've seen him in person twice, and listened intently to his homespun lyrics of the intensity and stress, and joy, of everyday life.  An amazing mind in a gifted individual.  I will miss him greatly.

[trapper]

Do current tests tell if a person has had the virus and recovered?

[SwampDonkey]

Seems to me, I just heard/read that there is no test for that, yet. Have no completed clinical trial on it yet.

Apparently,  a large sample of Icelandic infections revealed that 50% of the positive cases had no symptoms at all. That leads me to wonder if a portion was false positive to. So I would not draw conclusions.

[doc henderson]

still being developed and tested.  each type of virus has markers on the outer membrane.  this how they can be classified, and some are in the same family.  there as you know are many viruses in the coronavirus group.  most cause the common cold.  the rapid pcr tests pick up several other corona viruses but not the C19.  so the nasal swab is looking for antigen to the C19 so it has to be made to antigens specific to C19.  the current test is to detect virus, and after you clear it and are negative, then you are no longer contagious.  so if you test a  person and they are negative on this test, you either had it and cleared it, or have never had it.  The blood test being developed is looking for the antibodies that shows that you have had it and have immunity (we presume) to the virus.  So you could in theory go back out in public with little risk to you and others around you.  Some people carry the virus for a prolonged period, so we may need to do both in the short term to make sure you are not a prolonged carrier.

[doc henderson]

It can be tricky for other reasons, such as, what if you are found to antibodies to C19 and it cross references to other corona viruses.  you would be falsely reassured.  do the antibodies measure, also confer immunity.  We often have to look at the type of antibody.  IgA primarily protects surfaces.  IgG and IgM are in the blood (serum).  There are memory cells that will watch for the infective agent (using the antibody) and will respond quickly if re-infected.  If the virus mutates again, may need to start over if it is changed enough to not be recognized.

[doc henderson]

so an antibiotic is something (medication)  your doc can give to fight bacterial infections.  and antibody is what your body's immune system makes to fight infection.  the antigen is the marker on cell walls (virus, bacteria, cancer cells) that tell your immune system that it is a foreign material, and what the immune system reacts to, and makes antibodies against.

[brianJ]

Seems to me, I just heard/read that there is no test for that, yet. Have no completed clinical trial on it yet.

Apparently,  a large sample of Icelandic infections revealed that 50% of the positive cases had no symptoms at all. That leads me to wonder if a portion was false positive to. So I would not draw conclusions.

I read that article too.     Made me think there needs to be a way to loosen the quarantine a little at a time so young or middle aged people without health issues can  develop immunity to it

[SwampDonkey]

So far here in New Brunswick we have 112 known cases, I think 3 are in intensive care (only 10 were hospitalized at some point), we have 60 recovered and no deaths so far. NS has close to 4 times the cases and 2 deaths. I don't see those recovery numbers on the JHU site. I think we have been doing good so far, and we are the poorest province in the county. I have not heard of any cases in my county nor the one to the north of it.

N.B. COVID-19 roundup: Province sees 1 new case of COVID-19, recoveries reach 60 | CBC News

[SwampDonkey]

Just reading today that South Korea had 91 cases of reinfection. That could mean they were not completely over it to. No conclusions yet.

[Hilltop366]

Swampdonkey looks like New Brunswick is doing a very good job there, population density probably has a lot to do with the the extra cases in Nova Scotia as well as the extra 200,000 people, Find it interesting to see the difference in infection rate and population.

Up until recently almost all the confirmed cases of covid19 in Nova Scotia were returning travellers or people in close contact with them but over the last week or so there has been more community spread. The map reporting the cases divides the province into 4 areas Map Western, Northern, Eastern and Central.

The geographically smallest area Central part has about ½ of the provinces 970,000 population and about ¾ of the confirmed cases.

I'm happy to say I live in the Western area near the Southern tip of the province. (far left on the map)

I did read the other day that the two biggest causes of Corona Virus spread were:
(1) Population density.
(2) population density.