Poll: 2006

[Ron Wenrich]

Poll expires 1/17/06

Time to make your annual predictions.

[Modat22]

I predict a rise in collected taxes for states and an increase in state projects.

the housing bubble will burst and house prices will drop.

I predict a fair number of lost jobs in the finance market

Gas is gonna go up.

[LeeB]

even though I work in the oil industry I hate to see these high prices. they are never good for anyone one. even us. it may be good in the short term, but in the past ive always ended up scratching my layed off butt when prices got really high. petrolium is a consumer product and high price will lower demand. unfortunately it usually knocks the rest of the econimy for a loop first. LeeB

[thedeeredude]

I know nothing of economics but I think the economy will be better next year.  This year it was real nice too.

[OneWithWood]

A lot of things will be coming into play during 2006.  It will be interesting to see how it all balnces out.  Overall I think the economy will fare a bit worse than 2005, which was not a bad year. 
Some things to watch to see what the effect will be:
Oil prices - look for slight increases and very few if any decreases
Housing market - the quick cash schemeres will get caught up in the deflating bubble and higher interest rates
Interest rate - will continue a slow but steady increase through mid year
Building materials - the rebuilding from the various disasters will continue to keep the cost of contruction materials up
Automobile sales - the sales for the big US auto makers will continue to stagnate as the increased fuel prices exacerbate the short term stupidity of all those gas guzzling monsters they continue to market
Consumer spending - the sharp increases in minimum payments on credit card debt coupled with higher fuel prices will put the cabash on discretionsary spending
Defense spending - large expenditures for military hardware and overseas deployments will continue to drain the economy of cash and material
Attempt to balance the budget - given the necessity for large defense expenditures to support deployments and rebuilding efforts in other countries the only place left to make meanimgful cuts will be in social services.  This will create huge financial strains for the governament in the future as problems do not get resolved, merely put off.
Tax cuts - the Republicans will push through the remaining tax cuts for the wealthy while at the same time gutting programs for the poor.  This will have a negative effect on consumer spending as the poor spend out of necessity and the wealthy tend to hoard.  IOW, the dollars do not flow to the economy as readily with tax cuts as they do with social spending.
Retirement benefits - the raid on defined benefit plans will continue unchecked as corporations bolster their balance sheets at the expense of their long time workers.  A quick boost to keep share prices up in the short term but a huge shift of burden to the public in the long term.  The effect for 2006 will be relative stability in the financial markets.  Long term could be a huge problem.  But what the hay, the CEOs get to keep their perks and multi-million dollar salaries so where's the harm >:(

Ooops, I had better stop now . . .

[Kirk_Allen]

First off, Thanks for the outline OWW. 

Oil prices - look for slight increases and very few if any decreases unless we stop listening to the screaming environmental wackos and start building some Nuclear power plants and drilling in ANWR.

Housing market - The smart folks sold there homes in 05 and capitalized on the bubble.  I suspect the bubble will burst and new home purchases will decline. 

Interest rate -  interest rates will go up but only slightly.  Still much lower than the days of Jimmy Carter. 

Building materials - The cost of construcion materials in disaster areas will keep the cost of those materials high in those areas but expect them to drop some in uneffected parts of the country.  Hardwood Market will do well this year. The overseas demands for hardwoods is growing.   

Automobile sales - the sales for the big US auto makers will return as better economy vehicles will be manufactured and marketed. So called "short term stupidity" is overcome by long term safety concerns.  Folks will still by gas guzzling monsters because they are safer.  I much rather have my wife driving a big SUV than some little electric car. 

Consumer spending - The change in Bankrupcy laws will send a wake up call to those holding to much CC debt.  With those laws came larger minimum payments that may potentialy lead to folks getting out of debt quicker, which frees up discretionsary spending.

Defense spending - What better way to spend our money than on defense spending.  Its one of the few government programs that you can see positive results.  Sure beets spendig it on social programs. 

Attempt to balance the budget - A balanced budget wont mean much if we have another Katrina or 9-11.  Such events have a major impact on our countries budget.  Even more tough on the budget is when we cow-tow to the emotions of those effected and feel sorry for those who CHOSE to live where they live and do so expecting to have the government bail them out after a disaster.  Not how I want my tax dollars spent.  There has to be a balance in what we should cover and not. For Example:  Everyone in the Katrina disaster recieved $2000 based on where they lived.  My Ex was one of those. Lets see, home is fine, still has her job, never missed a paycheck during the event?  SO WHY SHOULD SHE AND MANY OTHERS BE GETTING OUR TAX DOLLORS? 

Tax Cuts: The smart politicions will push through the remaining tax cuts.  Economic history supports this. The idea that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer is a fact of life. If all the wealth was distributed equally in a matter of months you would have wealthy folks and poor folks. 

Social spending?  Who wants it?  I dont need a social program that for every $10 dollors of tax dollars put into it only $2 gets to the folks that need it.  The social programs we have are broke and one day someone will realize that throwing more money at it, in hopes that it will boost the econemy just doesnt work. 

Retirement benefits - Even thought I hate bigger government, I do think in this case there should be laws established to protect retirements for the folks that were promised them as part of their employement.  I saw our military retirement programs change over time but when those changes took effect it was for the new folks and we still got what we were promised. 

I think both big and small, any company should be able to establish what the Officers of that company make.  All corporations have a board of directors that determine those issues.  That board is established by the shareholders in most cases.  If folks have a concern over who makes the rules in the company then dont invest in the company. 

As the CEO/President of my company I hope to one day make millions of dollars. When that day comes I know that I will have full support of our board of directors as well as of our shareholders.  When that time comes I KNOW I will have earned my perks and mulit-million dollar salary. 

So with all that said, what do you think?  ;D

[Frank_Pender]

What crystal ball are you using?  Ihave a hammer. :D

[UNCLEBUCK]

I am with Kirk 

[Modat22]

Without going political I'm going with onewithwood.

[Cedarman]

It is an election year, the government will pump in enough money to make the economy grow.  The hurricane caused a big need for appliances, building material and all the other things needed to build a home and furnish it.

We might even see some slowing of immigration which should make wages go up a little.

The demand in my business the last quarter was the best it has ever  been.

I think the economy in So Indiana is down a little because I am getting large amounts of cedar logs in and slower local sales.  Historically this indicates a slow economy.  But nationally and world wide things look real good.

[Max sawdust]

I am on the fence : : between points raised by Kirk and Onewithwood
Social Programs: I think many social programs are broke, and can not be fixed.  I feel the money spend on taxes should stay in the individuals pocket, and individuals should contribute to programs that spend the money wisely to help. ie your church or local club.

CEO's: I am with Kirk on that one.  Know if you ask, do I think many of these CEO's are worth it to the their companies? My answer would be NO NO NO.  (But it is up to the shareholders not me, and that is the way it should be.)   BUT CEO's like in the case of Enron should be liable.  Otherwise they all take the money and run :D

Oil:  Drilling in the ANWR will have no effect on oil supply for many years.  It is my opion it is just a political thing.  I think it is funny how oil prices are high when we got a oilman as president :  Nuke power is fine, but "Not in my back yard" issues with the waste need to be resolved.  It is my opinion that oil prices are subsidised big time  by military spending and other things.  The true cost of oil would be much higher and other sources energy would start to make fiscal responsibility.

Defense spending:  I am a Fiscal Conservitive, spending beyond your means is never a good idea.  It is a 2000 year old war, only reason we are there is oil.  See my thoughts on oil above.

Balancing budget: Debt is real- No administration Republican or Democratic should add to national debt. It weakens the dollar.  

Taxes:  I am for all tax cuts, I think we should have a flat tax so it is fair.

Automobiles: Market will be like last year. Don't think you will see me towing my mill with a battery powered 3 cylinder car :D  When oil starts to rise again, I think many people will consider smaller cars.

Max

[Ron Wenrich]

My outtake on some of the issues.

Oil prices - I don't see anything that will keep them in check.  The reason that oil prices have been low is due to all the fuel that was given to us from Europe after Katrina.  That supply has dried up.  Also, Russia is now selling to China and India, and that is drying up our sources there.  ANWR oil will not reach the US.  It is heavy crude, and harder to refine.  Most of that oil will reach China and Japan, not US.  Next weather crisis - real cold snap, hurricane or anything else will escalate prices.

Government spending - If you think the system's broke for social programs, the defense isn't any better.  I was in San Diego back in October and had the opportunity to talk to one of the guys responsible for the jets on the USS Reagan.  He was responsible for 12 jets, of which 4 were down due to no computer/screen (needed for location and directing bombs).  Cost $40,000 apiece.  We had no money to fix the jets, but had plenty to pave the parking lot at the base.  He wasn't too thrilled with the quality of jets we were getting either.   

Was he a disgruntled employee or calling them as he sees them, I don't know?  But, I've also heard ads on the radio calling for donations so soldiers can have better helmets and armament.  It doesn't seem to me that the defense money is spent any wiser than any other agency, and should be under the same scrutiny.

Debt - national or otherwise.  Consumers are now at a -2% savings rate.  They are spending more than they are saving.  Bad news for consumption. 

The national debt is now over $8 trillion.  A good deal of that debt is financed from other agencies, like Social Security.  But, what isn't is most likely coming from foreign capital sources.  China has about $800 billion of that debt, and it is growing.  China is thought to be looking at diversifying their holdings and to slow the amount going to the US and take it to Europe.  Our interest rates go up and that effects housing and cars.  What happens when China decides to take Taiwan into their fold and call in the debt?

I'm trying to figure out why people who howl about importing foreign oil have no problems with importing foreign capital to pay your debt. 

Taxes - if you can't control spending, you can't reduce taxes.  It isn't hard to have properity as long as you're writing hot checks. 

Automobiles - Toyota will overtake GM as the largest car mfg in the world.   Ford is said to be ready to lay off 30,000 additional workters.  Bright note - GM is the largest car salesman in China.  Their leading sales - Buick.  I wonder where they're made? 

I don't think things will get a whole lot worse, but there is a lot of drag on the economy.  As pointed out, its an election year.  With the garbage coming down with the  Abramoff, there will be a lot of pork put out so the incumbents don't have their feet put in the fire.

[DanG]

I have this odd tendency to base my opinions on my own observations, rather than what the "Talking Heads" have to say.  Here's a couple of things I have observed.

Inflation is a lot bigger issue than the national figures indicate.  I notice that a loaf of bread is over $2 now, and a decent steak is pushing $10 a pound.  Gas prices have doubled.  Yet the figures say inflation is minimal. ???  I think the figures are skewed by extremely low prices on certain items.  For instance, our old 2 head VCR crapped out, so I bought a new 4 head one for $40.  The old one was over $200, back when bread was a buck.  While shopping for the VCR, I saw new TVs for $15!   True, it was only a 5" B&W, but FIFTEEN BUCKS?  My old cordless drill gave it up, so I bought a new one just like it for $50, at the same store I gave $100 for the first one five years ago.

I think the Government(s) at all levels could spend our money more wisely.(understatement of the year ;D )  We have a problem along my stretch of I-10.  It's a little hilly along here, and there are many places where the shoulder slopes steeply into the trees.  People are dieing at an alarming rate because of it.  What's the Goobermint (Thanks, FDH ;) ) doing?  They are spending million$ pruning the trees so they will look better.  There is enough timber on the right of way to rebuild New Orleans, for cryin' out loud!  They could contract it out to a logger and MAKE money on the deal.  A call to DOT tells me that they plan to put up guard rails when they can find the money. >:(

I voted that things will stay the same, and they will until the Govt learns to take care of the little things.  The big things will take care of themselves.  It doesn't matter who sits in the White House, either.

[DouginUtah]

Inflation is a lot bigger issue than the national figures indicate.  I notice that a loaf of bread is over $2 now, and a decent steak is pushing $10 a pound.  Gas prices have doubled.  Yet the figures say inflation is minimal. ??? 

That's why they, the "Goobermint", came up with the "core index" to monitor inflation. It excludes food and energy--the two things that people on a fixed income are most hurt by when true inflation is high.

Food and energy prices have no direct inflationary effect on the Social Security COLA.

-Doug

[johncinquo]

I'm going fishin more, and worrying about it less. 


But I sure would like one of those pension plans the bureacrats have.

[Patty]

The more I study the economy the more I believe it is very manipulated. My plan is to make soooo much money that the economy doesn't hinder me in any way.  ;D

[Kirk_Allen]

Amen Patty!   8) 8) 8)

I have to say that if anyone has driven around the country like Buzz and I did last week, doesnt seem to be any slowdown.  I have never seen so much new developement as I did last week going to FL and back. 

[Max sawdust]

The more I study the economy the more I believe it is very manipulated. My plan is to make soooo much money that the economy doesn't hinder me in any way.  ;D

8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
That is the attitude ;D
Max