Lumber prices too high

[stavebuyer]

One of the larger regional wholesale lumber concerns has quit giving PO's for White Oak 1C and better as they have multiple millions of feet in inventory and no matching sales interest. A few months back lumber mills were outbidding stave mills on logs. That little trend is long gone.

[OldTimbercutter]

Do you think the price on chestnut oak logs will drop drastically ? Its still high in the southern Tennessee area. And I have alot to cut . Nice timber. Hope it don't crash !

[WDH]

With the price of white oak lumber dropping, you should anticipate the price of logs to follow suit at some point in the future.  There may be a lag as is usual but the laws of economics are not in your favor.  

[stavebuyer]

Quartersawn oak log prices have already started to ease. Chestnut Oak will drop quicker than true White Oak as it is of no interest to the cooperage market. I would do all I could to get Chestnut oak sold.

[dustyhat]

Yes chestnut oak is getting ready to take a hit.

[OldTimbercutter]

Thats what im concerned about.  Going to concentrate on cutting the chestnut oak and save the white oak . I think the stave prices will stay strong in this area. They dont have any inventory of logs now. And it has been dry and perfect weather to log. Come winter they will be in a tight spot .

[SwampDonkey]

I suspect prices of softwood lumber and panels to take a big fall soon as the Bank of Canada is raising rates by 3/4% this week. And Canada and the US always discuss interest rate moves. There are some houses here listed for double the price they were 4 years ago. Half a Mil. for a 3200 sq foot bungalow is a bit much, especially since it in a rural setting and always will be. : The only time we have housing boons, is when new government jobs come online and lots of boomers retiring. That's what built up Grafton and Bull Road. There was no manufacturing, mining, gas projects, zippo in those areas. We are over bloated with government.

[moodnacreek]

I suspect prices of softwood lumber and panels to take a big fall soon as the Bank of Canada is raising rates by 3/4% this week. And Canada and the US always discuss interest rate moves. There are some houses here listed for double the price they were 4 years ago. Half a Mil. for a 3200 sq foot bungalow is a bit much, especially since it in a rural setting and always will be. : The only time we have housing boons, is when new government jobs come online and lots of boomers retiring. That's what built up Grafton and Bull Road. There was no manufacturing, mining, gas projects, zippo in those areas. We are over bloated with government.

Canada has been overbloated with government for a long time Swamp but don't worry we are right behind you.

[Bradm]

I suspect prices of softwood lumber and panels to take a big fall soon as the Bank of Canada is raising rates by 3/4% this week. And Canada and the US always discuss interest rate moves. There are some houses here listed for double the price they were 4 years ago. Half a Mil. for a 3200 sq foot bungalow is a bit much, especially since it in a rural setting and always will be. : The only time we have housing boons, is when new government jobs come online and lots of boomers retiring. That's what built up Grafton and Bull Road. There was no manufacturing, mining, gas projects, zippo in those areas. We are over bloated with government.

BoC did a full 1% move on Tuesday.  Locally, housing resale has really slowed down and homes are not selling above asking.  Listing prices are still 30-40% too high for starter homes, though higher end homes are coming down faster.  I'm not sure what's happening with new construction, but the new subdivisions don't seem to be slowing down.

[nativewolf]

There is a lot of pent up demand for homes and lots of people moved from stock market to housing.  Interest rate are higher now and maybe enough to cut froth but rates of 6-7 percent don't stop many buyers.  With oil and gas prices falling some maybe they nail the soft landing?   I would be happy with real estate moving sideways for 3 years but I am not selling.  

In lumber nees the local treatment yard was almost bare.  Diesel was at $5.19 in Opal VA

[stavebuyer]

Local Amish mill just lowered Oak prices 100mbf across the board. Record number of home buyers failed to close sales contracts last month. The Crypto evaporation of a few trillion is going to expose some collateral damage. Musk could be among them.

[Nebraska]

1/2" box store plywood still 40.00$  here.

[SwampDonkey]

Home sales in June were up 10% over the 5 year average here in NB and 29% of the 10 year. But did drop 3.7% from the previous June.

The average home in New Brunswick was selling for $172,200 in April 2019. In April 2022 the average was $313,700. I will attest that that is driven by out of province immigration. Local people are not driving it. I know several old houses here all bought by outsiders and drove prices up. Many of them have them relisted already, like I told ya they would. It's totally a speculator's market. New Brunswick is no longer a cheap place to buy a house.

Still too much easy money and no interest on savings to speak of. I remember when savings was 12% and maybe 18%. In 2000 maybe 4% at best and now, not even 1%.

Gas dropped 8 cents a litre this week, the first move in 3 weeks.

Aspen plywood 1/2" sanded $73 a sheet. Homedepot.ca :D :D :D  $53 a sheet for 1/2" spruce.

[woodroe]

1/2" CDX sheathing steadily dropping in price. $37 now, was $40 a week ago .
2x6x8 studs $10, Box shop prices. 

[stavebuyer]

Nothing to do with lumber but I just picked up some bagged 14% feed for my heifers. I bought a pallet of it May 26th for $8.75/50lb bag. Today the same feed was $12.50/50lb bag.

[Southside]

The winter wheat I combined and carried to the co-op a couple of weeks ago was paying over $10 / BU, in normal times $5 is awesome, so yea, it's all going to keep getting more expensive. 

[SwampDonkey]

I see most of Homedepot.ca hardwood plywoods are from Columbia Forest Products. They have a mill in Presque Isle, Maine. They've always sent buyers for veneer logs in New Brunswick. We never had large volumes but they were always interested and they hired the trucking. Chances are we are buying our own wood back. ;)

I wonder what potatoes are going to do this year? I see a lot less grown. Almost all are contract from large farmers. Potato chips, dehydrated products, french fries.  Locally processed. This is a potato belt. The field beside the house here, 100 acres is all wheat this year. Said his wheat was going to a dog food maker.

[WDH]

Dogs have to eat, too.

[livemusic]

Home sales in June were up 10% over the 5 year average here in NB and 29% of the 10 year. But did drop 3.7% from the previous June.

The average home in New Brunswick was selling for $172,200 in April 2019. In April 2022 the average was $313,700. I will attest that that is driven by out of province immigration. Local people are not driving it. I know several old houses here all bought by outsiders and drove prices up. Many of them have them relisted already, like I told ya they would. It's totally a speculator's market. New Brunswick is no longer a cheap place to buy a house.

Still too much easy money and no interest on savings to speak of. I remember when savings was 12% and maybe 18%. In 2000 maybe 4% at best and now, not even 1%.

Gas dropped 8 cents a litre this week, the first move in 3 weeks.

Aspen plywood 1/2" sanded $73 a sheet. Homedepot.ca :D :D :D  $53 a sheet for 1/2" spruce.

The emboldened above is amazing. I am not aware ever of that large of an increase that fast, that is nuts.

[SwampDonkey]

It sure is.

[Machinebuilder]

I think in most of Tennessee real estate has gone up more than that, at least in any area closer to a bigger town.

Just around the corner from me there is a place for sale, 6.62 acre, 1100 sq ft, 3 bed, 1 bath barn and 2 car garage ...........$400,000

IMHO its maybe a $150k place.

it scares me to thin what my 26acres with house and barn would sell for. 

[Walnut Beast]

If your on the selling end your happy as a billy goat 🐐. And if your on the buying end mad as a hornet 🐝. 😂

[SwampDonkey]

Dad's house in Gafton on 1-1/2 acres was $290,000 (after finishing the basement) when sold by our buyer in 2019, now listed for $520,000.  :

[livemusic]

Those of you who have a good sense of historical prices... these real estate prices you mention are nuts... if we were to have a horrific recession/depression, do you think they would reverse or is it once there, always there?

As for raw land, I don't ever remember in my lifetime a period when land went down significantly. If it did, it sure didn't stay there long. I dunno about houses or land with houses.

Same could be asked of trucks/cars, equipment, machinery. For the average person in the USA, housing and transportation prices are the two biggies.

[Walnut Beast]

A friend of mine that has seen the hardest of times and was forced to have a farm sale on equipment years ago and the list goes on! Is the same one that has a place in Florida and has bought and sold several farm land tracts for four times and more. That adds up in a hurry when farm ground goes up 3 to 7 k acre that adds up quick. Like he says if you want to get rich! Buy things that appreciate and if you want to go broke! Buy things that depreciate. I've had my share of setbacks! Sometimes the best way to learn is the hard road!