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Lumber prices too high

Started by livemusic, November 30, 2020, 09:06:33 AM

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brianJ

Quote from: Walnut Beast on July 17, 2022, 06:15:49 PM
A friend of mine that has seen the hardest of times and was forced to have a farm sale on equipment years ago and the list goes on! Is the same one that has a place in Florida and has bought and sold several farm land tracts for four times and more. That adds up in a hurry when farm ground goes up 3 to 7 k acre that adds up quick. Like he says if you want to get rich! Buy things that appreciate and if you want to go broke! Buy things that depreciate. I've had my share of setbacks! Sometimes the best way to learn is the hard road!
Education is expensive if you get self taught or ivy league taught.

Peter Drouin

Pickup my raw land for $6.000 30 years ago' 27ac
Ask if I would take $650,000 + this year.
Told the man NO.
Roots too deep here. ;)

Box store 2x4x8 under $5.00 now
A&P saw Mill LLC.
45' of Wood Mizer, cutting since 1987.
License NH softwood grader.

Claybraker

Just off the top of my head during the farm crisis of the 80's land prices dropped considerably. Home values dropped a little from the savings and loan collapse. The Great Recession hit home prices and raw land too.

Having said that Freddie Mac estimates the US is short 3.8 million housing units. When inventory starts to climb that will be time to worry.

nativewolf

We lost most of a decade of home building and that's a lot of ground to make up.  Gas was $3.79 in Front Royal VA this evening.  Diesel was back down to just over $5 in Opal VA.  That should cut the inflation situation a bit, this last month we have 1-4 trucks show up any day we call and to me that means there is some trucking because we have always struggled with trucks.  Lumber in Lowes was down this weekend too.  
Liking Walnut

quilbilly

I listened to a contrarian on a podcast the other day, I believe she used to work for the fed, said we are really only short about a million homes and much of the math is a cook the books situation from realtors double counting and projections that aren't taking into account current demographics and lifestyles.
a man is strongest on his knees

SwampDonkey

I think the biggest thing is affordability. A new house available that isn't within your means isn't going to do you any bit of good. You can build those 3.8M homes, but it will be like those ghost cities in China, no one can afford them. You think it works different over here? How many homeless are in the US living in tents? Oh, they did something wrong I guess. :D You have the king pins at the top driving prices. What happened to all those abandoned homes in 2008?  Whole suburbs. You never hear a peep.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Walnut Beast

Several years ago a estate planner told me you would be surprised how many people living in the big fancy houses with the big fancy cars that when the smoke settles what their actual net worth is. 

nativewolf

Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 19, 2022, 03:25:08 AM
I think the biggest thing is affordability. A new house available that isn't within your means isn't going to do you any bit of good. You can build those 3.8M homes, but it will be like those ghost cities in China, no one can afford them. You think it works different over here? How many homeless are in the US living in tents? Oh, they did something wrong I guess. :D You have the king pins at the top driving prices. What happened to all those abandoned homes in 2008?  Whole suburbs. You never hear a peep.
They all got resold at lower prices, investors snapped up many thus, many are rentals.  I agree affordability is important, in our closest little town they are putting in the first big subdivision in 2 decades and they built some townhouses (high density and more affordable) but they are doing 100 mcmansions (low density and not affordable).  
Kind of hope the developer gets caught with his pants down on the mcmansions.
Liking Walnut

Southside

Around here folks are getting quoted $300+ / square foot to build on land they own, and I am talking a nice home, nothing fancy or ornate.  
Franklin buncher and skidder
JD Processor
Woodmizer LT Super 70 and LT35 sawmill, KD250 kiln, BMS 250 sharpener and setter
Riehl Edger
Woodmaster 725 and 4000 planner and moulder
Enough cows to ensure there is no spare time.
White Oak Meadows

nativewolf

some kind of crazy.  These mcmansions are 4k+ sqft maybe 6k.  Dirtwork and proffers had to make the lots some kind of pricey.  They'll be pushing 2 million I guess.
Liking Walnut

SwampDonkey

Gotta be a lot of people with deep pockets in your area. The only mansion near these parts is Allison McCain's. His father never had a house anywhere as big as that 3 story motel. And it was his father and uncle who built the empire. Spend'r if you've got'r. What in the world do you do with so much house? :D
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Don P

A lot of the ones from the roaring '20's got turned into multi unit apartments in their final demise. I would be less concerned with spanking the developer, he is responding to the whims of the market. That is where the thinking problem is, our "wants". There will always be a few castles. we have somehow screwed up our minds to thinking every wannabee needs a castle. Enough of them are barren inside, spending money we don't have to impress people we don't know. 

Southside

Agree Don, that's sort of like the guy who logs with a farm tractor wishing doom onto the guy who goes full mechanical.
Franklin buncher and skidder
JD Processor
Woodmizer LT Super 70 and LT35 sawmill, KD250 kiln, BMS 250 sharpener and setter
Riehl Edger
Woodmaster 725 and 4000 planner and moulder
Enough cows to ensure there is no spare time.
White Oak Meadows

livemusic

Quote from: Southside on July 19, 2022, 07:10:45 AM
Around here folks are getting quoted $300+ / square foot to build on land they own, and I am talking a nice home, nothing fancy or ornate.  
Sheesh, this is insane. A 2,000 sq ft home would be $600,000. I can't wrap my head around that.
~~~
Bill

quilbilly

Quote from: Southside on July 19, 2022, 07:10:45 AM
Around here folks are getting quoted $300+ / square foot to build on land they own, and I am talking a nice home, nothing fancy or ornate.  
That's the same here. You can get one of the slap em up pre planned crews for about 150-200/ft depending on the model. 15 years ago those same guys were doing it for 40-50. Anything even semi custom though is $300/ft and they've got work lined up for 2 years or so. What we really need out here are masons. Almost none around and folks need their imitation river rock chimney.
a man is strongest on his knees

beenthere

Those who are spending their money is what keeps people working. 
south central Wisconsin
It may be that my sole purpose in life is simply to serve as a warning to others

Southside

I suspect they are spending the banks money. 
Franklin buncher and skidder
JD Processor
Woodmizer LT Super 70 and LT35 sawmill, KD250 kiln, BMS 250 sharpener and setter
Riehl Edger
Woodmaster 725 and 4000 planner and moulder
Enough cows to ensure there is no spare time.
White Oak Meadows

SwampDonkey

The job figures, it turns out can't even be trusted. Recent audit up here showed unproven/unsubstantiated numbers drummed up under a federal program. Of those that were suppose to be real, a 5th of those claimed,  they lack evidence of existence. :D
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Mooseherder

#1 pressure treated syp 2x6x16= 17.99 yesterday at small but wonderful hardware store.

OutlawB52

Invest in plywood for your retirement future . 

Don P

About 2 years ago and current price, identical nails;



Lumber is part of it but the nickel and dime stuff is really adding up.

moodnacreek

So it appears lumber prices are dropping like a lead balloon .  I won't be the local hero much longer. The real problem for me is my fuel cost. It was good [for me] while it lasted.

nativewolf

Lots of thoughts on this as I heal up (and I will say that this robotic surgery was just amazing.  Just amazing- on my feet and eating most foods and using bathroom and no pain meds but for Advil).

A lot of new mills were built over the last 4 years in a belt across the south from TX to FL so capacity finally caught up to demand just as demand started to fall due to raging inflation.  

Gas prices are falling, housing sales have slowed a lot, walmart cut earning forecasts, etc.  OTOH manufacturing growth is strong, labor is tight, wages have stayed up.  What happens now will be studied by economics students for decades to come.  Coin toss for a sharp recession or soft landing.  Will be interesting and will surely be impacted by global events in China and Europe.  At the end of the day we're short some housing- 1 million or 3 million units -who knows.  We're short some.  

Admin edited: Political content removed.  Domestic and International politics have no place in this discussion, keep it out and keep the discussion in the open forum where all members can participate.  

Those who knowingly inject politics into non-restricted area discussions will loose their posting privileges. 
Liking Walnut

stavebuyer

Red Oak/White Oak/ Hard Maple/Poplar/Walnut lumber pretty well down across all grades. Ash is holding but most of ours is gone. Red Oak is getting to the point that if you figure a 300mbf saw bill and 300mbf logging bill there is very little left for stumpage. When landowners pull the plug is usually what stops the free fall.


Cedarman

Interest rates went from 2 1/2% to 5 1/2%.  On a $400,000 loan, that is $12,000/ year or $1000/mo  just in extra interest making the monthly payment out of reach for a good number of people.  Any wonder people quit buying.  But then again, rents are soaring, so what is a person to do.  A lot of people are going to get run over by the bus.
I am in the pink when sawing cedar.

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