Log prices

[Ianab]

The exacting specs is why they are willing to pay top dollar. They don't want to ship crap logs 1/2 way around the world. The rings per inch is pretty much ignored in NZ as it's all plantation Radiata. 2 Rings per inch is normal, and 1 isn't unusual. Top $ is pruned butt logs, which might be 90% clear grain wood. So the "J" spec here is quite different, but still the better grade logs. 

[nativewolf]

Always an education gents.  

@Skeans1 Pic is great!  So Quilbilly is getting good pricing on much smaller diameter logs, 12" and 9" .  Just curious if the price bumps move all across the region or if they are localized.  How's tricks this winter.  

[quilbilly]

Always an education gents.  

@Skeans1 Pic is great!  So Quilbilly is getting good pricing on much smaller diameter logs, 12" and 9" .  Just curious if the price bumps move all across the region or if they are localized.  How's tricks this winter.  

Skeans has more buyers and therefore better pricing. He is only about 3.5 hours south, but that moves him into much more private and state wood and better growing conditions. Our lowland is mostly site 2/3 while he has high class site 1 ground all over the place. 
Our site 1 ground is all forest circus and therefore all locked up. Soon to expand another 100k acres of wilderness and wild and scenic rivers. 
Oh our weyco sort right now has a 32" butt max. So that log has to be a nice clean log that isn't huge. 

[mudfarmer]

Maple moved up again at my buyer apparently.  Tapping maple not cutting it right now :D, did not ask details

[nativewolf]

Interesting.  Russia is floating a possible embargo on raw material exports ..no details yet but if timber is included (it was listed as a possibility) that will impact softwood pricing and some hardwoods as Russia is a major supplier to Europe as well as the global market as a whole (India, China, etc).  


It would mean Russian lumber would be looking for a home if the ban is only to Europe.  Be interesting to see how that one plays out.  Could be softwood pricing soars.

[stavebuyer]

It could also be that with $150 oil rippling through the system, and food prices skyrocketing that building comes to a standstill.

[Nebraska]

That new homestead  fixer upper won't look so good with a 45 minute commute. 

[kantuckid]

Nor will the 1,000's of open jobs be filled by rural labor buying $150 oil to commute. KY is cutting unemployment checks back from long months to 26 months but I see them still staying home for now. Who knows what some of these "house people" are living on? 

What I've read is that lumber will now reach highs that exceed the recent past records. Home builders were saying then, at even those crazy prices it was not going to stop them, as only one aspect of overall costs combined with insane selling prices. In Birmingham, AL where a son sold his $250k older home for $850k last summer, that same neighborhood they often buy them and even tear some of them down, to build a new one just to "get into" that neighborhood. Go figure huh? :  

[stavebuyer]

My quartersaw log buyer told me this morning that they are going on quota and will not let their log inventory increase. He was also griping that he was being asked to scale a large number of logs that his main competitor was trying to unload.

Much of the 8/4 W.Oak goes to Europe.

Granted that has nothing to do with Pine framing in the US, but very few things run in a vacuum. Two weeks ago, the same mill had raised prices and was begging for more logs. The whole world runs on the same playbook. The guy building the 850K house that just got a 20% raise can get the phone call from a worried boss saying how he really hated to let him go but they just lost a billion dollar order in the Euro market.

[moodnacreek]

Well first I want to think things well be ok for me because lumber prices are staying up and I can increase prices to cover the fuel increases. Sounds good. But if it goes like the last recession nobody buys any lumber.

[quilbilly]

Supposedly Ukraine supplies a large amount of oak to the euro market. Russian embargo of timber, I believe they're the largest exporter in the world, would make prices go insane. Russia needs the money and I doubt they're going to rid of their billion dollar baby

[nativewolf]

Oil fell quite a bit today, $15 a barrel.  Will fall more in the next week as Venezuela and Iran start exporting again.  If/When SA starts dumping oil we'll see it back below the $90 price.   SA was counting on Iran and Venezuela being unavailable, if available they'll open the spouts to grab market share.  In the USA our oil production has soared over the last year, we are now back almost to our all time high.  Compared to the Iranian Revolution (took 5.6 mln barrels out) or the Arab oil embargo of 1973 (took 4 million barrels out) the impact from Russia (taking 3lmn out) is barely significant.  In addition global production and demand has doubled from the the 1973 crisis to now.  So, the impact of Russia is not going to s. be that large after the market figures out what the real loss will be.  It's going to be about what the Texas Winter storm a year ago that took 1.5 bbl out of production when they did not insulate the pumps.  

Re Russia, they'll still export to India and China but just not so much to Europe.  Not really going to matter I think.  The oil systems are setup to send oil out via pipeline that almost entirely go to Europe and it is trading at a $30/barrel discount and they are having troubles moving it.  So, China can't take more oil- or can't take enough to help Russia.  Timber is another matter,  they can stop harvesting west of the Urals and just continue exports to China from Siberia and Far East.  They can't even ship much out of the Black Sea as Turkey has closed straits and insurance premiums skyrocketed.  They can ship out of St Petersburg or Murmansk/Archangel it is a long way from there to India/Far east.  

[nativewolf]

today Russia announced it was banning 200 products from export. Forest products are on the list of 200.  

This should have an immediate impact on global softwoods and hardwoods.  Mostly softwoods but it is going to bite hard and deep.  USA pricing may rise immediately in response, not sure..market has to weight this in contrast to rising rates maybe hitting demand.  

Anyway, @quilbilly another brilliant move by Putin.  God save the Ukraine 

[IndiLina]

I'm no expert on lumber futures but they look to be getting close to the previous highs. 

[nativewolf]

I am really not sure what this means for US futures.  Building is still strong here, logistics still weak.  I am not sure if this just means the EU has trouble sourcing (Finland, Poland, Sweden, Estonia see high prices) or if softwoods from Canada start flowing to the EU ?  Or?  I know Russia also did lots of birch and alder.  No idea how those markets work.  The rail networks to china are already at capacity so getting lumber from Western Russia over to China is going to be tough.  I don't think this will impact Russia to China sales from the Far Eastern provinces of Russia.  

[quilbilly]

I read they might but didn't believe they would with the financial sanctions. I expect the export market to really pick up. It has quite a bit already but I expect quite a bit more. We have a small job next month that will have some export wood on it. We'll see what they will give us. Pricing should shake out by then.