Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[doc henderson]

the military chain of command including the medical folks will make that determination.  If it is determined needed to be combat ready, then there will be little choice.  (severe allergy, medical condition, religion)  we are seeing parainfluenza 3, normally a spring and fall event, pushed back by mitigation.  causes croup in kids under 5 and laryngitis in adults.  It will not be mandatory al least until after fully approved.  still on experimental approval now.  Remember the "immune" include folks who got the disease and the immunized.  if enough people are not immune, it can float around enough to mutate, and then if the vaccine and previous strains did not confer immunity to cover a new strain, we start all over a gain, but with more knowledge.

[Ianab]

so that means vaccinated folks have a 1 in 20 chance of catching it but odds are they will have mild case of it.

It's better odds than that, you can meet someone with the virus, and still NOT get infected.  So you are 20X LESS likely to be infected. No one is sure what the actual chance of getting infected is, it's not 100%. Some people catch it, and never pass it on, even to their family, Others catch it and give it to 10 more people to make up for that. 

So the chances of catching it are ... some number. Chances are catching after being vaccinated is 20X less. 

And as the vaccinated numbers go up...  If 1/2 the population is now immune, then your chances are catching it are already at least 50% less. Add in the 95% improvement in your odds from the vaccine. As more and more people get the vaccine, those odds get less and less until "herd immunity". 

You can still end up with 5 or 10% of the population vulnerable to the virus, but they won't catch it, because everyone around them is immune and the virus isn't actively circulating.  So even those technically vulnerable folks have only a 0.01% chance of catching it. and about the same odds of passing it on. 

[kantuckid]

I heard a number on last nights TV news that when you add the 100 million in USA who have had covid to those vaccinated you are closer than you think. 
A concern of mine is for the millions of college students who have immunity, yet being forced to vaccinate and the irony of that at universities where much of the staff has stayed home and remain unvaccinated and not forced to do so age aside. 
The doctor who invented the mrna vaccines-Pifer & Moderna ones- he was on FOX news last night and a very intersting interview as they discussed his notion of who should/should not be vaccinated at this time. He also expressed concerns that the studies are not bein g done as followup to all those who've been vaccinated. As doc Henderson says-someday we'll know more but that doc said we'd know more IF! those studies were being done. In the rush to get shots in arms much has been laid aside it seems. 

[JJ]

I don't understand the requirement/mandate that unvaccinated people must segregate and wear masks.  There is no mandate to prove your are vaccinated, and if you decide not to get the vaccine, why would a mask be needed among the vaccinated?  

No vaccine is your own decision and at your own risk, your are not going to infect the vaccinated people which was the reason for wearing the mask (so we were told).

170M people vaccinated already, doesn't sound experimental anymore..

     JJ

[Gary_C]

The CDC advisory committee also met yesterday in their "emergency meeting" they postponed for almost two weeks and did declare there is a connection between the heart inflammation issues after vaccination and the two mRNA vaccines. In the end they essentially only modified their recommendations as to timing of the shots if there is an adverse reaction because of their analysis of the "risk/benefit" as being slightly tilted in favor of recommending the shots. 

First problem with that is the benefit is highly skewed towards community benefit thru the use of modeling which in the early days of this pandemic have been wildly inaccurate. Their new models predict a surge in cases this fall due to the "delta" variant if everyone is not fully vaccinated. What the CDC did not do is look into lowering the dose or only requiring one shot for the 12-19 year old's which is what some doctors believe would reduce the incidents of adverse reactions. There was some evidence presented that showed a lower dose would reduce the incidents of adverse reactions but I did not see any evidence of levels of immunity with lower doses. So far, levels of immunity to the virus for both previously infected and those vaccinated is either being ignored or is not available.

The effectiveness of the two mRNA vaccines was reported as being very close to 95% in reducing infections and 100% in reducing hospitalizations. 

[doc henderson]

at some point, it may be that we check for immunity, before you get the vaccine.  i.e. the folks who already had asymptomatic infection.  the infection likely confers a better long lasting immunity than and immunization.  Yes the CDC is looking at the heard not the individual.  Almost al myocarditis is caused by your immune system going over board in response to a virus.  It may be the stats are the same weather it is from the shot or the virus.  so if you do not get the shot and you will get the disease and have the same risk of myocarditis.  had we not mitigated, remember, you may have died when you tried to get your loved one into the locked hospital that was protected by the national guard or got there and no nurses or doctors were well enough to work at all.  maybe would have lost 5 million instead of 600,000.

[Ianab]

It's also now known that the virus mostly attacks blood vessels, not specifically lungs. Of course lungs contain a lot of blood vessels, are probably an initial entry point for the virus (breathing it in), and damage to the lungs makes you noticeably sick very quickly. 

But other organs like the brain and heart also contain a lot of blood vessels, and those can also be attacked and damaged. This leads to all those diverse "long covid" cases, and this damage has been documented with scans etc by the Drs studying the long covid cases. 

I expect what the CDC decided was that although there is a remote chance that the vaccine could have a negative side effect, the chances of the virus having a negative effect is both known, and MUCH more likely. And that includes damage to a persons heart. This is accepted for pretty much any vaccine. 

While the CDC is looking at overall statistics, individual safety does come into it. If the vaccine is even close to as likely to harm you as the virus, then it shouldn't be used. But if it's say a million times safer than getting the virus, which seems to be the case, then it should be used. 

[Gary_C]

at some point, it may be that we check for immunity, before you get the vaccine.  i.e. the folks who already had asymptomatic infection.  the infection likely confers a better long lasting immunity than and immunization. 

The problem is that Fauci has already stated with all certainty (and absolutely no data to back up his claim) that immunity from an exposure is not adequate nor any where as good as the immunity from the vaccine. So as a result everyone is supposed to still get vaccinated regardless of previous infections. It's the old "shut up and get vaccinated" edict. 

[Southside]

I read that now they will be sending folks door to door to "encourage" those who have not been jabbed to go and get shot.  Wonder if the census info will be cross referenced with vaccine records to know what houses to visit?  

Likely to encounter "Banjo Billy" in this neck of the woods if they do drop in.  Has crazy eyes, smiles at the wrong time, kinda laughs to himself, keeps saying something about "we got one", stands a bit too close for comfort.  No laws broken, but not the kind you want to hang around with way out in the boonies and attempt to have a "convincing conversation" with.  

[Ianab]

Here's some reading about Covid's effect on the heart. A "common" after effect is inflammation of the heart muscles. (myocarditis). 

Heart Problems after COVID-19 | Johns Hopkins Medicine

Myocarditis is often a side effect of the bodies immune response, basically the same as getting a swelling at the injection site in your arm, just it's your heart muscle. What was unexpected was that it's mainly showing up in young males. Cases were "expected", but it was thought they would affect older people more than young, while the reverse has been true. 

Also note that no one has yet died of this side effect, and most recover after maybe 4 days.  

This article talks about the CDC data and how they make the decisions. 

Here?s all the data on myocarditis cases linked to COVID-19 vaccines | Ars Technica

Summary. 
Don't vaccinate teenage males, and per million, over 120 days expect
5,700 Covid cases. 
215 need hospital care.
71 moving to ICU
and probably 2 deaths. 
(Teens are much LESS vulnerable to Covid, but not immune) 

That's over 4 months,and the pandemic is still a thing as you have a pool of non vaccinated teens to keep it going. Pass it on to the 5% that the vaccine didn't take, or the folks that can't have it for medical reasons, or the anti-vaxers. And there is a good chance of new mutations developing. So those 5,700 cases only relate to the teens, not the rest of the population they manage to infect over that time. 

Vs a million vaccinations that might cause about 60 Myocarditis cases, some will need hospital care, but probably no ICU admissions or deaths. The Myocarditis is likely a reason some of the real Covid cases needed hospital care anyway.


Those are the real world numbers the CDC currently has to work with. What conclusion would you draw given the same figures?

[kantuckid]

There is an exhaustingly informative article about Crown viruses, the labs that study them and much more as the lead article in todays NYT's newspaper-google the article-"The Warnings About the Coronavirus that Were Ignored" by Dr. Zeynep Tufekci. You will come away after several minutes wondering what comes next. The article begins in the 1950's and moves forward to the here and now of coronaviruses. 
It is not a politically focused article at all! It relies on the history and various research and human population affects of past corona viruses. The Chinese Wuhan Lab is heavily involved along with her own location in NC as well as other locales. 
The article, in my words, might best be re-named, More than you ever thought you'd hear/read about coronaviruses? Yes, it's both scary and interesting too. 

[kantuckid]

I've been thinking along the same lines as Claybraker, wondering if the military personnel have a choice!

When I was in, when it came Flu Shot time, if you refused to get the vaccine you were told "If you get the Flu and are to sick for duty, you were put on Leave status or you were on Bad Time", which you had to make up for!

Along this line of thought: I got a flu vaccination not that long before I entered active duty in 1964 as a civilian and got a bad case of the flu directly afterwards. I adopted the idea that I'd not make that mistake again. Then at Ft Leonard Wood, MO in the summer of 1964 I spent some seriously hot days in the barracks with a bad case of the flu directly after being forced to get the shot there with everybody else.
Another sort of funny side joke we all had, is that when I/we went on sick call it was common practice that no matter what ailed you they gave you a small bottle of Cepacol! As if it was some sort of miracle cure.  :D
A few minutes ago I googled the history of flu vaccines and it seems that I am mistaken in thinking that I was given a live vaccine back at those first two shots? It was many years later when I changed my attitude and began to get a seasonal flu shot-maybe around 25 years or so later. Now, as a senior I try to stay vaccinated via the senior version of seasonal flu vaccine-which they seem to be out of each year until I keep checking back.
From what I've heard/read from professionals the data concurs with the comments of Ianab above but it also emphasizes that the collection of data has not been done as a serious study, it's just collected information so far. Until the real work gets done it's not a true study of the data, but of course it's all we've got so far.  

[Ianab]

it's just collected information so far. Until the real work gets done it's not a true study of the data, but of course it's all we've got so far.  

At this time that's really all that we are going to have to work with. 

Medical ethics basically rules out blind placebo trials once you have completed clinic testing and know the medication works. If you gave 1/2 the vaccine patients a placebo, and some died, that's unacceptable, because you now KNOW that with the vaccine they are very unlikely to even get seriously sick. 

But you can still for example observe the results in vaccinated people, and compare that with people that haven't had the vaccine. Or observe the outcomes from different approved vaccines. All the approved vaccines are "safe" and "effective", but one might work slightly better, or have less side effects. Hence collecting and analysing the information. 

[kantuckid]

I am far (really far ;D) from qualified to react specifically to your comment but the Doc who invented the mnra vaccines says "the work" is not being done as should be. I'll take his word until I hear differently. 

[doc henderson]

there was an article on the search engine this am that was misleading.  it states that 4,000 people have been hospitalized and 700 have dies that were fully immunized and had covid.  many of the people were asymptomatic and admitted for other reasons.  we often have to check people admitted to the hospital for many reasons, just to know what floor to put them on.  so they were not admitted for covid, were asymptomatic, just tested.  Along the same lines, many of the deaths reported were not related to covid, but they died in the hospital and happened to have tested +.  the tittle even implied that they were hospitalized, and died due to the vaccine.  Man.  

[Paul_H]

That almost mirrors the complaint of how covid was named for deaths where there were serious comorbidities.

[Stephen1]

Here's some reading about Covid's effect on the heart. A "common" after effect is inflammation of the heart muscles. (myocarditis).

Heart Problems after COVID-19 | Johns Hopkins Medicine

Myocarditis is often a side effect of the bodies immune response, basically the same as getting a swelling at the injection site in your arm, just it's your heart muscle. What was unexpected was that it's mainly showing up in young males. Cases were "expected", but it was thought they would affect older people more than young, while the reverse has been true.

Also note that no one has yet died of this side effect, and most recover after maybe 4 days.  

This article talks about the CDC data and how they make the decisions.

Here?s all the data on myocarditis cases linked to COVID-19 vaccines | Ars Technica

Summary.
Don't vaccinate teenage males, and per million, over 120 days expect
5,700 Covid cases.
215 need hospital care.
71 moving to ICU
and probably 2 deaths.
(Teens are much LESS vulnerable to Covid, but not immune)

That's over 4 months,and the pandemic is still a thing as you have a pool of non vaccinated teens to keep it going. Pass it on to the 5% that the vaccine didn't take, or the folks that can't have it for medical reasons, or the anti-vaxers. And there is a good chance of new mutations developing. So those 5,700 cases only relate to the teens, not the rest of the population they manage to infect over that time.

Vs a million vaccinations that might cause about 60 Myocarditis cases, some will need hospital care, but probably no ICU admissions or deaths. The Myocarditis is likely a reason some of the real Covid cases needed hospital care anyway.


Those are the real world numbers the CDC currently has to work with. What conclusion would you draw given the same figures?

I have 2 friends in thier 60's that came down with Myocarditis after thier 1st shot. Neither one of them reported it as an advers reaction, Thier Dr's told them not to worry and go get thier next 2nd vaccine shot. They were given some sort of prescription, then booked for follow up testing. they were told it had nothing to do with the vaccine. 
My thoughts , if I know 2 people with myocarditis not reported.
 How many other cases were not reported?
Just my thoughts for the day

[doc henderson]

that is true, and others go undiagnosed.  It is "required" to report as it is a drug under investigation.  also remember this virus, and many others also have myocarditis and other heart problems (conduction issues) as a complication.  the myocarditis is mostly in young males, and last about 4 days and fully resolves.  imagine having heart inflammation, and viral pneumonia, and renal failure all at the same time on a ventilator.  this is what most die from is multisystem organ failure.  old people already have about half the reserve of a younger person.  this is why the high mortality rate.  it was estimated by an old German pathology professor of mine that we all loose 1% per year after age forty of our renal capacity.  that is a normal healthy person.  so at age 90, you are down at to half your kidney function.  200 years ago, most men dies at age 40.  It continues to appear that the vaccine is much safer than the disease, and cannot be spread to others.  so this is how we control the spread.  This is nature (poss./prob. augmented by a lab) and we do not make the rules.  

[Gary_C]

  It continues to appear that the vaccine is much safer than the disease, and cannot be spread to others.  so this is how we control the spread. 

I completely agree with you about the goal being to control the spread. However the vaccine should not be the only tool in the toolbox. Acquired immunity is now being ignored and it should be an equal tool to fight the spread. To dismiss or ignore both the side effects of the vaccines and the benefits of acquired immunity at the same time is simply wrong. 

And then there is the forced vaccination of young people that are not really at risk of either getting infected or spreading the infection. 

[doc henderson]

we could have let it run ramped, and got it over in a month.  many more people would have died.  we could just barely keep up during the peak as it was.  the all at once scenario, would have looked like one of those zombie apockolypse movies.  I mean all hospital and stores closed.  looting for food and water.  mass chaos.  The government may not talk about it when they are pushing the vaccine, but medical people realize that the combination of natural disease plus the vaccinated will create the herd scenario, and stop the disease.  the problem is that now we have a mutation that may require another vaccine.  when you get the disease, you make about a million or more copies of the virus.  chances of making a copy error goes up.  that is what a mutation is.  remember we used mitigation with distance, reduce travel and group size,  hand sanitizer, masks, store closure.  it was not perfect.  many of the doctors in the big government institutions, are more politician than caregiver.  At least we are all still here (for now) to talk about it.  

[Roxie]

God Bless you doc. You're a hero in my eyes and I don't hand that status to many. 

[Gary_C]

Oh don't take my words wrong doc. Like you I'm all in for the vaccine and was eager to get my shot ASAP. It's just that now as we get to the fringes of the herd is it really necessary for the people with acquired immunity from an infection to be forced to get a shot anyway? 

Also I've got a 15 year old grandson who was about to be vaccinated when this enlarged heart issue came up so I warned my daughter about the issue and advised her to talk to her doctor before getting his shot. Daughter is still waiting for doctors OK but it has created a family issue with the scientist side of the family not wanting to be around the unvaccinated grandson even though literally everyone else in the family is vaccinated. Either we have confidence in the vaccines or it makes no sense to get vaccinated.

As far as the mutations like this Delta variant, my science expert tells me that viruses always mutate but as they mutate they always always weaken. That absolute trend seems to be the case with this mutation as it may be more infectious but less virulent. That is certainly the case with this mutation as the cases and hospitalizations are way down plus deaths may well be back to normal levels.

So all drugs have risks and side effects and I am not convinced that it is time to use the potential risk of this Delta mutation to force people who may have severe adverse effects to get vaccinated if it is not necessary. I'm comfortable with my vaccine protection so I do not want to force anyone else to get vaccinated for my benefit. 

PS: I just talked to my old high school buddy that got a bad case of the virus and spent most of last October in the hospital fighting the resulting pneumonia among other things. He said his doctor now insisted he get the vaccine because of this recent and previous bouts of pneumonia and when he did get vaccinated he got real sick again with various ailments and says his arms are still sore from where he got the shots. Doctor is sure it was his immune system fighting the vaccine because he was already immune from the infection. 

So the question now is why do we not test for immunity and recognize that natural immunity from infections is as good as the vaccines?  

[doc henderson]

Gary good luck with the family stuff.  I think that natural immunity is prob. better than the vaccine.  It is true that all the complication from either the vaccine or the disease are from your immune system waging war on the virus (dead packet of rna/dna).  Yes replication has a risk of a mistake (mutation), but that 1 in a million can make it more virulent or contagious.  of course in a lab, it is easy to add things and get a super bug.  sounds like we are kind of on the same page.  
Roxie, boy did I need to hear something like that today.  Hours of computer junk with this new company, and I was getting a little disheartened.
still have lots of research to complete, and things to learn about this virus.  God bless all.

[JJ]

It is sad, and likely due to president election+covid that shutdowns, masks, and vaccine has become so politicized.   Hard to trust what you hear on MSM which has been/is politically edged, and keeps flip-flopping.  Also big tech selective censorship isn't helping people build any trust with what they do hear.

Doc Henderson, you I trust and you have been a great source of clear and level-headed advice ever since you started this thread.   I am grateful that you did this and you are my hero too..

     Take Care
      JJ

[Mossy Chariot]

Just sharing some information from a vaccine expert.  Interested in your thoughts @doc henderson 

https://www.bitchute.com/video/b87VjAYDXS0g/