iDRY Vacuum Kilns

Sponsors:

Chainsaw fellers / manual workers disappearing

Started by livemusic, March 29, 2021, 08:45:51 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

livemusic

There isn't anything that keeps me up at night but if there is anything that greatly concerns me about the future it is automation. I'm not smart enough to figure out how this is going to play out. There seems to be no end to the advance of automation. Multiple jobs are being replaced by one robot or machine. Think how many chainsaw guys are replaced by one felling machine. And then we have AI ever-advancing. So, how is society going to function with more and more jobs being taken over by machines? Is socialism the answer for survival of the lower class? I have no idea but I can't figure out how this is going to work because people have to eat or there will be anarchy. Speaking of which, that could also keep me up at night if I let it.

It might end up with an even greater disparity between the haves and have nots. And the haves will include those simply willing to work.

In my little town, there is a great need for a dependable handyman. A jack of all trades who can fix most any routine failure around a home. Such a person does not exist here anymore. One of these days, somebody is going to move here and make a living doing that because the need is real. Men who did that my whole life are now dead. I gave up after multiple attempts, hiring someone to do a job and then they flake out and are a no-show or get drunk on the job or quit halfway through and such.

But again... automation... more, more, more... bugs me as to how it can work. Technology is fascinating in many ways and there are benefits. Some of it is really cool. Hopefully, we'll survive, lol.
~~~
Bill

Ianab

Quote from: livemusic on March 31, 2021, 11:08:08 PMThere isn't anything that keeps me up at night but if there is anything that greatly concerns me about the future it is automation.



That concern has been around since machines were invented. Like when cotton mills started to be  automated about 200 years ago, and has been ongoing ever since. It used to take a lot of workers to build a car before Henry Ford invented the production line etc. If those predictions had come true 90% of the population would now be unemployed... And that's not counting the increased number of women in the workforce. Meanwhile I think unemployment here is ~5%, and that's in spite of Covid and a basically universal unemployment benefit. 



Instead there are whole careers that didn't exist 200 years ago.  or even 50 years ago. Now "Rocket Scientist" is an actual career option for a school leaver here, as there is actually an active space launch operation.  Although arguably they might be better going for film production, either film or computer based. New LOTR TV series is currently being filmed here for Amazon's streaming service. Sure there is a lot of  automation and computer work involved, but also hundreds of actual workers on the project. 
Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

mike_belben

Ian, plot out the welfare enrollment next to the mechanization of society curve and youll see an alarming relationship unfold.  those who are for whatever reason ill equipped to keep technological pace, are obsoleted and discarded by it.  change happens fast now with these crisis.  terrorism?  no fly lists.  virus?  work by zoom.  poof.. insta-change.


there is a welfare saturation point that is exploited by the cloward and piven strategy. bread and circus brought down plenty of empires past and technology makes us even less immune than in the horse and candle ages.  look how fast you can distribute a trillion dollars.. and just how fast the recipients can blow it then need another shot next week.


regarding handymen.  its strange how in my life when i chose one thing to become for success, i was never successful at it.  the lotto ticket had always been moved before i got there so i kept moving on and learned not everything, but a lot.  a real lot.  and now my identity is pretty scattered like a handyman's work docket.  he cant call himself a painter or plumber or electrician or roofer or drywaller but does all of it, very scattered.  thats me.. i lack a one stop identity and dont even know where to start when asked "what are you?"  housewife is usually the fastest, funniest way to dodge that bullet and change the subject because i still have no idea.

the great irony is now that i am equipped and knowledgable and in demand, im so flipping tired of slaving for everyone but me, that i have no interest in even letting anyone know i can solve their issues. i dont really care how much money its for, i just want my time back to build my own dream and solve my own issues.  work is my favorite thing to do, but i generally hate when its for someone else.

does anyone else feel that way?
Praise The Lord

Tacotodd

Quote from: mike_belben on April 01, 2021, 07:41:21 AM
Ian, plot out the welfare enrollment next to the mechanization of society curve and youll see an alarming relationship unfold.  those who are for whatever reason ill equipped to keep technological pace, are obsoleted and discarded by it.  change happens fast now with these crisis.  terrorism?  no fly lists.  virus?  work by zoom.  poof.. insta-change.


there is a welfare saturation point that is exploited by the cloward and piven strategy. bread and circus brought down plenty of empires past and technology makes us even less immune than in the horse and candle ages.  look how fast you can distribute a trillion dollars.. and just how fast the recipients can blow it then need another shot next week.


regarding handymen.  its strange how in my life when i chose one thing to become for success, i was never successful at it.  the lotto ticket had always been moved before i got there so i kept moving on and learned not everything, but a lot.  a real lot.  and now my identity is pretty scattered like a handyman's work docket.  he cant call himself a painter or plumber or electrician or roofer or drywaller but does all of it, very scattered.  thats me.. i lack a one stop identity and dont even know where to start when asked "what are you?"  housewife is usually the fastest, funniest way to dodge that bullet and change the subject because i still have no idea.

the great irony is now that i am equipped and knowledgable and in demand, im so flipping tired of slaving for everyone but me, that i have no interest in even letting anyone know i can solve their issues. i dont really care how much money its for, i just want my time back to build my own dream and solve my own issues.  work is my favorite thing to do, but i generally hate when its for someone else.

does anyone else feel that way?


I do.

I just want to "play" with my own stuff. I'm lucky that I can. I don't have much. 😕 But I know that it's ultimately nobody else's fault, just mine. But I like what I have, that's why I still have it.
Trying harder everyday.

mike_belben

Quote from: Tacotodd on April 01, 2021, 07:54:01 AMBut I like what I have, that's why I still have it.

my mother in law just visited her property where her other daughter and grandkids are sorta squatting and trashing the place.  went on about how the driveway was full of junk and so forth.  i said wait until you see mine someday.  just remember my name is on the deed to this one.
thats one more good thing about junk.  its a form of polite repellant.  :D
Praise The Lord

Anderson

Quote from: mike_belben on April 01, 2021, 07:41:21 AM


the great irony is now that i am equipped and knowledgable and in demand, im so flipping tired of slaving for everyone but me, that i have no interest in even letting anyone know i can solve their issues. i dont really care how much money its for, i just want my time back to build my own dream and solve my own issues.  work is my favorite thing to do, but i generally hate when its for someone else.

does anyone else feel that way?


livemusic

Quote from: Ianab on April 01, 2021, 04:05:16 AM
Quote from: livemusic on March 31, 2021, 11:08:08 PMThere isn't anything that keeps me up at night but if there is anything that greatly concerns me about the future it is automation.



That concern has been around since machines were invented. Like when cotton mills started to be  automated about 200 years ago, and has been ongoing ever since. It used to take a lot of workers to build a car before Henry Ford invented the production line etc. If those predictions had come true 90% of the population would now be unemployed... And that's not counting the increased number of women in the workforce. Meanwhile I think unemployment here is ~5%, and that's in spite of Covid and a basically universal unemployment benefit.



Instead there are whole careers that didn't exist 200 years ago.  or even 50 years ago. Now "Rocket Scientist" is an actual career option for a school leaver here, as there is actually an active space launch operation.  Although arguably they might be better going for film production, either film or computer based. New LOTR TV series is currently being filmed here for Amazon's streaming service. Sure there is a lot of  automation and computer work involved, but also hundreds of actual workers on the project.
I do find the future incredibly exciting in some ways, centered around technology because I am fascinated by innovation. I just don't get how society will handle job loss. Overall, I just cannot see how we will not have largescale job loss. I hope I am wrong. Another angle... let's say the potus announced an apollo-moon-mission type of directive to rebuild the infrastructure of this country. It seems that quite a bit of that would involve manual labor. Manual labor using the tools of modern technology but, still, quite a bit of manual labor. Who's going to do it? Will people take these hot, dusty, tiring jobs?
Here's a recent article, an example of concern in the oilfield. Similar concerns are applicable to forestry, agriculture, etc...
oilfield automation
~~~
Bill

Will.K

Quote from: Ianab on April 01, 2021, 04:05:16 AM
Quote from: livemusic on March 31, 2021, 11:08:08 PMThere isn't anything that keeps me up at night but if there is anything that greatly concerns me about the future it is automation.
That concern has been around since machines were invented. Like when cotton mills started to be  automated about 200 years ago, and has been ongoing ever since. 
Ian suggests the Luddites, which name has been turned into a scornful designation for any who dislike or misunderstand or fear technology for any reason. But the Luddites were real craftsmen warring against machines which had actively dispossessed them. 
That dispossession of people from their work has been accomplished pretty thoroughly by now. That there are plenty of jobs does not change this fact. Most of these jobs are wholly meaningless and serve only one right human purpose (to put some food in bellies), but many other ends which boil down to sinister. The wealth of jobs is a distraction from our separation from good work. 

PJ65

Back when I was logging full time my boss hired some young hotshot firefighters.  Lasted a couple days and were done.

kantuckid

Quote from: Southside on March 31, 2021, 08:44:04 AM
Quote from: nativewolf on March 31, 2021, 07:31:08 AMWhy in the heck did we try to stop immigration?  The only large group of people wanting manual labor and we build a wall to keep them out???


The US has never tried to stop immigration.  Don't turn this into a political thread and get it moved to the restricted board.  There are members here engaging in a legitimate conversation without the influence of politics.  
Thanks for that. The USA admits ~ 1 million people legally per year. 
Down the road from our land is a medium sized sawmill operation with modern equipment. The owner, head sawyer(when he's not in jail) maintenance guys, truckers and contract loggers are all local yokels. All the rest are directly from Mexico. I was talking to the oldest Mexican a week ago hoping to find some casual labor for myself as they mostly are on 4 weekdays operation at that mill. Also, myself and my wife have traveled extensively in Mexico for many years. My first trip as a kid was in 1954 and I've toured Mexico on winter MC tours over 21,000 miles in 3 trips down there. Jose is 31 yr's old, came to work there age 19 from Vera Cruz, MX. Of 5-6 Mexicans there I think he's the only one who's married a local girl and fixed work status. This county not only has extremely high (for KY) un-employment it has been on the USA list of the ten poorest counties in the entire USA at one time. Vera Cruz is a very far piece from here to come and work among all this endemic poverty. 
That said-the last really semi-permanent high school farm helper I've had is nearing middle age now and a married veteran too. Local ag teacher gave me a kids name but damned if I can get that kid to take the initiative to make that first call about work. I have another HS kid who I found via FB county group request I made and ran his name by the ag teacher who said he'd had him two previous years and found him lacking, lazy and inconsistent behavior. He's also the nephew of one of my former secretaries. I can work with any kid, period and ran juvy treatment and a retired school person with much world of work experience but I'm really not looking for a project kid either. Maybe I've been around far too many of those. 
At my house our kids made their own career decisions in spite of both my wife and myself being in the career business and more. The power in developing a person is found in one word-empowerment. It is gained via guidance, cutting them loose some and encouraging efforts that may fail and being there when they need it. Coddling kids is so prevalent that it saddens me. 
If you want to know where we stand towards child development at my house read John Rosemond, Child Psch and his stuff. Not that he's always spot on but he's close in my opinion.
I won't even begin to dig in on the rest of stuff that came up above!  Way too many people now days who want me to finance their ability to stay home on a government paid leave program? My wife combined a career of work that costs us dearly in dollars as she stayed home and was not paying into a retirement plan at several points in our family growth. It's a point of pride, good fortune and some serious effort on our kids part and ours too that we raised three extremely high powered kids. There are people in my area who brag on how there kids were able to stay here and live. I suppose that great in a manner of speaking but much of the entire world of work job spectrum is not present where we live. But you can log and many are born into it here bouts. :D   
Kan=Kansas;tuck=Kentucky;kid=what I'm not

GullyBog

Labor is definitely in short supply where I live.  A lot of the reasons have been covered.  Another part of the problem is how much work there is to do.  There didn't used to be many mature trees 10 feet from a half million dollar house.  There didn't used to be three plus bathrooms in a single family house.  Vehicles can break down more ways than ever.  There are so many complicated problems that require competent labor that demand is above supply.  
So now we spend a lot more time maintaining what's already here and that takes away from our ability to grow or change.  It also makes it harder to get the young ones started when things seem overwhelming.  Kinda like learning to drive on the interstate.  
There might be a little dust on the butt log, but don't let if fool ya bout what's inside

donbj

Quote from: mike_belben on April 01, 2021, 07:41:21 AMthe great irony is now that i am equipped and knowledgable and in demand, im so flipping tired of slaving for everyone but me, that i have no interest in even letting anyone know i can solve their issues. i dont really care how much money its for, i just want my time back to build my own dream and solve my own issues.  work is my favorite thing to do, but i generally hate when its for someone else.


Then don't! Take a cup of coffee and go sit beside a stump and just think about what you just said. Looks to me like you're pretty much there. Pick your poison. Sometimes you're your own antidote. It's a journey! 
I may be skinny but I'm a Husky guy

Woodmizer LT40HDG24. John Deere 5300 4WD with Loader/Forks. Husky 262xp. Jonsered 2065, Husky 65, Husky 44, Husky 181XP, Husky 2100CD, Husky 185CD

kantuckid

What a nice problem to have?- knowledge, experience, means and what not... :D  Time is the one most precious commodity(during one's work years) so you've figured out :o
Retirement is the place where it comes down to your own dreams if yer lucky enough to be healthy.
And wouldn't I have loved to have had the time as I built our home-all while I was working a FT job a 50K RT from home and had 3 babies at home. Now my projects mostly revolve around weather and giving my body time to recover some.
Chainsaw fellers, etc. is a very dangerous job and those who manage to keep their bodies intact until old age are fortunate. 
Kan=Kansas;tuck=Kentucky;kid=what I'm not

hacknchop

Drives me crazy how some people pack their own lunch and then complain about it everyday. 
 As far as working with a chainsaw bad things can happen when people who shouldn't be in that line of work try it looking to saw money or for recreation do not take the time to educate themselves first.
Often wrong never indoubt

kantuckid

Maybe ask an orthopedic doc if that's always the case. Sad but true as "stuff happens". No doubt there are more inexperienced firewood cutters who get injured but in the end it's dangerous work.
At one point I was doing vocational evaluations of previously injured workers for the KY Dept of Voc Rehab and I can assure you I never once had a former lawyer, banker or insurance salesman in my office. Broken backs, loss of body parts and all sorts of serious injuries were seen. The logger/sawyer who's cutting my own cabin wall logs has a repaired knee joint from a tree accident. He's a KY Master Certified logger and cut all his life as has his family. Knock on wood as they say.
I always packed my own lunch for every job I had in all 5 careers, exception was the US Army. I also packed my 3 sons school lunches. I make a great PB samich.
Kan=Kansas;tuck=Kentucky;kid=what I'm not

Will.K

Quote from: kantuckid on April 02, 2021, 06:38:32 AM
What a nice problem to have?- knowledge, experience, means and what not... :D  Time is the one most precious commodity(during one's work years) so you've figured out :o
Retirement is the place where it comes down to your own dreams...
Retirement is where The Machine throws it's garbage. 

kantuckid

As in worn out people? ??? 
I must say that my past 20 years of retirement have been mostly very enjoyable. ;D
Kan=Kansas;tuck=Kentucky;kid=what I'm not

Old Greenhorn

I've been enjoying all the responses in this thread but held off replying for a bit. WHen I was in Jr. High (1969) my guidance counselor made it sound like I wanted to be a failure if I didn't go to college and was pitching all kinds of fields of study that had no appeal to me and made no sense. If I had to go to college I wanted to go into some part of Forestry work either as a Ranger or a forester working with tree harvests, etc. The guidance counselor wasn't too keen on that but found me 3 schools: Virginia Tech, Syracuse, or Paul Smiths. I didn't have the grades to get into either one. I settled on a 2 year associates program in Mechanical Technology after graduating from a technical high school where I learned a lot. In fact I learned enough in high school that my first year in college was a waste, same text books and I challenged out of all my classes the first semester (except gym and english lit). The second semester was supposed to be new technology for us, but it turned out that the professor was not familiar with these 'NC Machines'. Bottom line was, I wound up teaching much of the class because we did all that in high school and I would teach the underclassmen. I didn't see the point in paying to teach, so I dropped out (dumbest thing I ever did). I took a job as a cutter grinder's apprentice and began my trek through a half dozen shops in 5 years, learning what I could then moving on. All kinds of industries. I did my last 5 year stint in a large aircraft hydraulic manufacturer where I learned the bulk of my high tech skills, but when there was no advancement opportunity, I opened my own shop in 1980... All of that was seat of the pants self-guided learning. No fancy office job, learning from the ground up from good journeymen (and women). I closed my shop in '85 (different story) and bounced through more places looking for one where I could make a difference, use my skills, and 'fix' their operation. Moved the family north eventually and settled in learning more and adding skills, two more job changes and I had worked my way into a job as a tool designer and Manufacturing Engineer (still no degree). WIthout college it's a long hard road. The biggest obstacle I found everywhere I went was the weight that is put into that danged piece of paper. That is all they cared about, not skill or knowledge. I was working with a very gifted engineering designer on a new product for a period of months and had been making 'adjustments' to the design as we went. He was pretty happy with my practical tweaks on his original ideas. About a month in when we were tweaking some stuff he asked me "Where did you get your degree? Must be a good school, because you have some approaches and ideas I have seldom seen." I confessed I had no 'paper'. He said "Well you can work with me anytime, you are much smarter than 95% of the engineers I learned from." That was his 15th patent, and my first.
 I told you all that so I could tell you this:
The 'problem' as I see it is that manual labor is looked down upon as being something for the 'less smart' folks in our society. School counselors are judged by how many kids they get into college, not how many kids are successful at what they have chosen, whatever that is. The schools imply that 'working for a living' in manual fields is not what anybody should want and this trickles through everyone else, including HR managers. I missed out on several major jobs because of that paper alone. The other issue, as a result of this, is manual skills are way underpaid in many areas. Companies complain they 'can't find good help' and I call BS on that because if they paid for what they were getting, they would get it. My last company needed to hire a tool/model/experimental machinist. This required a lot of skill and confidence. I found them a guy and told them what he wanted to come on board (60K), they scoffed and said 'there is no way we are paying that for a machinist.' I told them there is no way they are getting what they need for 35k, ain't gonna happen. (ANd it never did.) Even the employers no longer understand the skills required for these jobs because companies are run by people who have never done these jobs....ever. Not very long ago most shop managers started at the bottom and learned all the skills in the shop, worked their way up, and after 30 years were running the shop. Now they hire shop managers with 4 and 5 year degrees only who likely never ran a drill press.
 Nobody can explain this as simply and clearly as Mike Rowe. Here is a clip of him testifying before congress (for the second time) regarding this issue and the problems we face. Mike and I think alike.

Mike Rowe Testimony - YouTube

Tom Lindtveit, Woodsman Forest Products
Oscar 328 Band Mill, Husky 350, 450, 562, & 372 (Clone), Mule 3010, and too many hand tools. :) Retired and trying to make a living to stay that way. NYLT Certified.
OK, maybe I'm the woodcutter now.
I work with wood, There is a rumor I might be a woodworker.

Will.K

Quote from: kantuckid on April 02, 2021, 08:44:30 AM
As in worn out people? ???
I must say that my past 20 years of retirement have been mostly very enjoyable. ;D
We fuel the machine, trading time for money, until our time is least valuable. Then we quit driving it and start greasing it with whatever excess we've scraped together.
 I'm glad your retirement has been good, and don't mean to say that people of retirement age are useless, only that serving a career is often a losing transaction on both ends of life. Retired people are often bored, having developed no meaningful interests or skills during the all-work years. 

SunnyHillFarm

Living in a rural area and having worked a full time and part time job for most of my working life I would have to disagree with the fact that  most retired people are bored and have no outside interests. This may be true in a more urban setting. I am retired for 15 years and have more work and duties to attend to than I have time. Maybe I am an exception, but most of the retired folks I know feel the same way. There is always a project for tomorrow. I would not want it any other way. 120 acres, a sawmill and making maple syrup keeps me out of trouble most of the time.

mike_belben

Mentally i retired at 36 when i left S&W with the deed to my current place and a small nest egg to relocate our family and their future and all the equipment to it.


 So 13 to 36 i was whatever the man wanted.  36 onward is the hardest ive ever worked and the least money ive ever had but i do what i want.  When necessary i will periodically work for others to continue advancing my program but im clear about the terms from day 1 and its always a subcontract-ish arrangement.  My life is my ladder and im the undisputed CEO.. It just happens to be a pro-bono position at a 1man non profit!


But we are happy.  Find me a bigger severance check than a happy, healthy family all under one roof.   So happy we are taking in 3 more mouths to feed because they need a safer place to live and the Lord has blessed us so thoroughly.
Praise The Lord

teakwood

Quote from: mike_belben on April 01, 2021, 07:41:21 AMand dont even know where to start when asked "what are you?"


:D:D me too mike, i really can't answer it. i just say allrounder. or handymen
National Stihl Timbersports Champion Costa Rica 2018

Trackerbuddy

Things change.
Grandpa didn't fight in WW2, they needed him in the north woods of Wisconsin.  Story is he didn't like big trees I guess cutting a white pine 5' dbh with a 6' cross cut saw involved lots of smashed fingers. Uncle Alan peeled popple by hand because the pulp mill didn't buy logs with the bark on and he was poor.
Is there something wrong with your generation because you use chain saws and fellers?  Are you lazy because you pull logs out of the woods with a skidder instead of horses or a steam winch?  Why do you load logs with a grapple instead of a horse team and jack pole?
Things change.
The small farms where the loggers of yesteryear grew up are gone.  Dad tells me that most everyone had a farm 8-40 cows then in the winter they cut trees.  His dad quit logging when he could make more money in the winter running a machine in Milwaukee.
Change isn't good or bad. It's inevitable.

stavebuyer

Things change. The trouble is people now want things without having to work for them.

mike_belben

Its not new for people to want free things, its fairly new here thatlarge masses of people are able to get them so easily.
Praise The Lord

Thank You Sponsors!