I have been running into this from multiple sources.
Interesting, thought provoking, but it sounds too good to be true.
Tony Seba #CleanDisruption @ Robin Hood Investors Conference 2019 #RHIC2019 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ud-fPKnj3Q)
Interesting. May be correct, but will have to see it. Are we going to have to change our tractors and heavy machinery over to electric motors? Battery cost would be huge. The other thing is, when you make oil really expensive, what will happen to the cost of electricity? Reading about the Biden "war on oil" they are saying fuel and oil are going to get really expensive. Might make the obama years look cheap for fuel.
I do not like it when one side pushes for 100 feet hoping to get a yard or two. let the development push the change. without it, we (the government) will subsidize it all, putting many out of business that are invested in old tech. everything I have seen r.e. climate is emotion and political, not science. you are not even allowed to think, it is not as bad as the politicians are saying.
Doc you are right about gov pushing this climate thing, nothing to back it up, but if the technology improves to the point batteries are capable and cheap, the self driving cars are reliable, and electric cars are cheaper to operate, who knows, might be as quick as the change from horses to gas engines. As I get older, the self driving car looks more interesting. Just wonder if they could retro electric motors and batteries into our old heavy trucks, tractors and heavy equipment.
I confess, I did not watch much of the video, but where I've seen references to TaaS, it's been an ad to encourage people to buy shares. Like, "buying TaaS now is like buying Amazon at $1.47". To me, this is just shy of a scam. Those who already own the shares are trying to encourage the public to buy it, thereby pushing up its share price. Robin Hood is a trading platform, and would stand to gain with increased trades. But then again, maybe I'm all wrong. I haven't looked into it much.
Housing a horse in the city, that goes 3mph and eats whether you need it or not vs an automobile that goes 20 plus mph, sits on the curb and only costs when you use it is totally different than comparing two vehicles that both go 80mph but take two different things to make it go, which are both affordable compared to the horse eating while parked and slow as molasses when not.
These people are smart enough to know that a fairer comparison would be showing how many people switched from one breed of draft animal to the other because of a cheaper or more ecologically friendly source of feed which is probably next to none. They are smart for NOT showing you this fairer comparison because the numbers are not impressive or emotional at all. They need big frilly presentations that fly by faster than you can invalidate them or even say wait a minute.. So that you jump on board and give up your money. Thats all this ever is.
Trust me. Save your 55 chevy. Itll be worth a hell of a lot more than the next prius.
I watched the whole thing. I'll throw this out just for discussion.
The biggest fly in the ointment, which they carefully avoid mentioning is politics and taxes. From a legal standpoint, driving an electric vehicle on public roads is illegal in most places. They use UNTAXED fuel. Try getting past DOT with off-road (untaxed)diesel in your truck !!!! When (not if) the politicians figure this out, the resulting taxes and regulations will make ownership a nightmare.
so I will be paying for everyone else to get the electric car by gov. subsidies. If I lived in a big city and only worked in an office, it might make sense. that is why they have public transportation. economies of scale. Here we need a heavy duty vehicle that can run 24 hours a day, and only required 5 minutes to refuel. I am certain it would cost more to refurb a traditional truck to a batt. operated one. the new ones will be designed around the battery and motor combo. may not need gear reduction in the rear end as an example. who knows, but I am counting on it taking longer than I will live. :)
I keep what vehicle I drive, and what I invest my money in separate. full disclosure, I looked at the picture and time of the video, and do not have time to watch. My comments are based on the few posts. a truck like a delivery truck with a known route and time away may work. but not for a farmer who has to be able to go when and where he wants. there are signs along the highways in Kansas calling for no more wind farms. so the rural communities take the hit to fuel and feed the big cities. a lot of lost jobs, and income to make a few loud people happy in my opinion. and I will stop there.
Any time there it a monopoly on a commodity it costs more. Do you really want your utility company, who is guaranteed to be politically connected, to have more influence on how you spend your money because now you buy your transportation from them too? I kinda like it when oil production gets too high and prices drop off. If you are living at home, working from home, and re-fueling your vehicle from home, then the utility company will be the first bill you pay each month, no matter how high they raise the rates.
Personally, I will continue to heat with wood, cook some with it in the cooler months, use diesel and gasoline in my equipment, and the utility for lights, cooling, and other minimized needs. Rather hedge my bet.
At some point in life i realized its expensive to leave home and its a recurrent expense that never stops. So find ways to not have payments and not leave home. That solves all of it.
My truck gets 10mpg and i hardly ever put fuel in it. For me the ROI on fuel savings to put some electric thing into service is longer than i will live, another POS electrical gremlin on wheels is the last thing i'll welcome to the homestead. Id get a flippin boat or airplane first and i like neither.
Another $2000 junky yaris for the wife when this one falls apart will do us fine.
The latest in the paper this morning from the Whitehouse. Climate change has been declared a National Security Issue. Seriously? I guess I should watch out for the invasion of the climate change, not who's passing thru our borders. Don't send me to the outhouse. woodshed.
Quote from: BradMarks on January 27, 2021, 01:48:06 PM
The latest in the paper this morning from the Whitehouse. Climate change has been declared a National Security Issue. Seriously? I guess I should watch out for the invasion of the climate change, not who's passing thru our borders. Don't send me to the outhouse. woodshed.
NTL Security Issue. Tell me/us more, if possible. What did it say, mean, and how?
The world will keep going forward. That film might be more about China than the USA, if were not careful.
SE
When government wants more control or power over something, it's declared a national security issue. I believe that widens the powers of executive orders (versus the legislative process). Almost anything can be contorted into a national security issue. Not sure how climate change made it there, but it could be something as simple as "a rising ocean will render these Naval bases inoperable". Much of the administrations goals around climate change is curtailing fossil fuel production. Hard to see how reducing our capacity to generate usable energy enhances national security. Maybe that's just one of those unintended consequences.
Never waste a crisis. A crisis is anything vast numbers of people believe in.
I'm not buying into their garbage, but if they get the solar electric panels cheap enough to allow me to disconnect from the grid I will gladly, and if I can buy a cheap little electric vehicle the panels will charge, I'd be interested. The whole global warming scheme was dreamed up by the UN, and their purpose was to brainwash the rest of us that we needed to pay a tax to them to save us. Seems all of government has the same idea. Reminds me of Chicken Little, who screamed "the sky is falling"
Had a neighbor who bought one of the early hybrid cars. Said it's great, gets 40 mpg. Battery died , replacement $4000-$5000 plus some big labor charges to instal it . Recon what an ev with bad battery is worth?
Quote from: pineywoods on January 27, 2021, 10:11:06 PMRecon what an ev with bad battery is worth?
About minus $1000 in hazardous waste disposal charges. ???
That's a problem they haven't worked out yet. The battery cost is about 50% of the price of a new electric car. Sure they may warranty it for 10 years, but after that you are on borrowed time. When it fails, you are up for 1/2 the cost of a NEW car, to keep a ~12 year old one running... I checked and the average age of cars here in NZ and it's 14 years. That's the Average, so 1/2 the cars on the road are older than that. So currently 1/2 the population are out of the electric car market because anything that old will be due for a new battery.
Now I would hope this can be solved, by making batteries that can be recycled / rebuilt for a more sensible cost. Then it's going to be a lot better. If your 10 year old electric car could have it's battery replaced for say $5,000, and they warrantied that for 5 years, then it becomes economic to recondition the car and have it run for 5 or 10 more years, Spread that cost over the 5 or 10 years, and it's an OK deal. If it's $25,000 for a new battery in a $10,000 car? It's scrap.
Cost will come down. Musk is building some mega Li battery factories right now. Why does a motor bike battery cost $220 and car battery cost $50. One doesn't last any longer than the other. Neither are Li either. :D
Quote from: Ianab on January 28, 2021, 02:19:02 AM
Quote from: pineywoods on January 27, 2021, 10:11:06 PMRecon what an ev with bad battery is worth?
About minus $1000 in hazardous waste disposal charges. ???
That's a problem they haven't worked out yet.
Like i said never waste a crisis. Thats the one in the works that just hasnt been phased in yet.
First we're all forced onto electric vehicles to save the icecaps, THEN the landfill hazwaste issue that just couldnt have been foreseen upfront by anyone with a pulse is the new crisis that global regulators will be forced to solve at our expense or the greenhouse gods will smite us all.
Their not even recycling electronics over here are they? All shipped off to Asia to deal with. Plus they are making them. We regulate here and allow those with less regulation to do all the work, then buy from them. If we truely had standards, trade would cease unless compliance with our standards. It hasn't happened yet, probably won't. You want them Ipads. ;)
Watched the video the OP linked. Different than I was expecting, but I'm still no follower of the message. I have never seen anyone come remotely close in predicting such a huge change in the future. Whether it be when to expect the second coming or the utility of computers ("I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" Thomas Watson, president of IBM - 1943) or "peak oil" countless times - all of which have proven wrong, or Al Gore's prediction of no more polar ice by 2013.
(But then again I guess on average the climate alarmists, on average, have been correct. In the 1970's it was global cooling. Now it's global warming. So on average we're doing just fine, I guess.)
The other statement made in the video that is hard to swallow - The change in transportation will happen in spite of government, not because of it. Au contraire! I think predictions fail often because human nature cannot be accounted for very well - whether for the good or for the bad. I can't see enough people giving up the independence that their autos provide to make transportation as we know it go away. The only way to force human nature in a specific direction is to force it.
I watched the entire video. An awful lot of assumptions made that don't take into account our human nature. He makes the point of the greatly reduced cost making it inevitable. But right now many of us could car pool and cut our gas cost in half. How many are carpooling?
I was also struck by his saying all the parking will go away. If we are all using this service, where are all those cars going to be parked at midnight when we aren't using them.
Notice that there was no chance to ask questions. There were so many statements and statistics thrown out as absolute facts that I think would unravel if they were looked at.
Interesting watch, but early on was pointing out all the "experts" that missed major trends. I think he is in that group. We will know in just 9 years.
Doug in SW IA