Author Topic: Log prices (Read 20676 times)

nativewolf · « **Reply #20 on:** August 26, 2020, 08:22:26 PM »

Quote from: ehp on August 26, 2020, 04:49:41 PM

everything is fine here , been a real hot summer . Been doing stuff with my kids and wife plus logging. Been talking to other mills as they just show up on my landing , all of us feel the same way . Next year its going to suck and everything is going to slow down or stop . Hard maple took a good move up today but the top veneer is still pretty bad . Had another mill email me a price list today but all they want is low grade but the price they put on the price list was so low you would be a fool to cut for that price . I mean it was so low I have never seen log prices like that , well maybe in 1970

Sometimes I wonder what these bottom fishers are doing? I really can't believe people send them wood.

Cub · « **Reply #21 on:** August 29, 2020, 08:10:45 AM »

Yeah it’s definitely tough going here. I’m not sure what a lot of guys are going to do. I have a feeling the pulp mills will keep most shut off past September. They are hauling lots of wood from Wisconsin rapids up here so I think they will process that before they open back up. Heard around 20,000 cord they have sitting in the yard down there. Not sure what will happen going forward. I think there will be some bankruptcies and bank owned equipment for sale in the next few months.

OH logger · « **Reply #22 on:** August 29, 2020, 09:21:47 PM »

Stumpage is CRAZY high here right now. I’m not even lookin at bid sales. Don’t wanna lose money and work for nothin. If I wAnt excersize I’ll buy a treadmill

Firewoodjoe · « **Reply #23 on:** August 30, 2020, 12:07:41 AM »

Hmm maybe someone knows something we don’t.

SwampDonkey · « **Reply #24 on:** August 30, 2020, 05:58:58 AM »

Marketing board here still showing old hardwood log prices since June, so not changing much. The sawmill will likely see the raise because up here they have a steady supply of public owned wood. Without that the mill doesn't get built. The mill sets purchase price for that wood, not DNR. There is no bid process.

nativewolf · « **Reply #25 on:** August 30, 2020, 08:07:08 AM »

Quote from: Cub on August 29, 2020, 08:10:45 AM

Yeah it’s definitely tough going here. I’m not sure what a lot of guys are going to do. I have a feeling the pulp mills will keep most shut off past September. They are hauling lots of wood from Wisconsin rapids up here so I think they will process that before they open back up. Heard around 20,000 cord they have sitting in the yard down there. Not sure what will happen going forward. I think there will be some bankruptcies and bank owned equipment for sale in the next few months.

Wow...that would mean they'd start the fall/winter really not needing the wood. Terrible.
I would expect it is a good time to find some redpine or something that saws into a 2x4 (conifers). Down here even though the lumber prices are sky high the mills have not budged on pine logs, somethings rotten.

Cub · « **Reply #26 on:** August 30, 2020, 08:44:22 AM »

Almost impossible to move pine now. Has been all summer. Potlach in Gwinn hasn’t been sawing much for studs. And they had a full yard before the virus stuff started. Escanaba pulp mill uses lots of pine. Yard is full. Lots of guys were getting 1 truck load a month for quota. Aspen same thing. Lp mill hasn’t taken much to make osb. Running half crew up there. It’s been tough to get rid of anything. Things moved all summer. Just really slow. It’s like what do you even cut. Just don’t know how long it will sit on the landing and dry out n get lighter.

mike_belben · « **Reply #27 on:** August 30, 2020, 08:48:59 AM »

Something definitely rotten.

Store beef prices through the roof, but cows are dirt cheep at the stockyard auction and the custom slaughterers have a 2 yr appointment lead now.

Lumber, plywood and osb flying off the shelf at record prices, but the mills arent buying.

These are some seriously peculiar supply chain anomolies.

Ed_K · « **Reply #28 on:** August 30, 2020, 09:03:43 AM »

The spf on the exchange made it to almost $900.mbf now it down to $790. and going down.

quilbilly · « **Reply #29 on:** August 30, 2020, 09:51:09 AM »

Just trying to piece together what I see here, but it seems like where there is some competition for wood from exporters, the market is a bit higher and more reflective of the cost at the lumber yard.

We have had a huge jump YoY and it's expected to hold through the elections. Went from no work in the late spring to 6 months lined up in a few weeks, at higher rate than normal too.

People here want to leave Seattle and Portland bad and are buying anything they can get their hands on to start building houses.

stavebuyer · « **Reply #30 on:** August 30, 2020, 10:03:49 AM »

Commodity pricing is always about supply and demand; but that does not mean that supply/demand is in balance through the entire production chain. Covid19 caused supply chain chaos. Stuff in the store got wild because demand exceeded supply at the retail level. Plant closures at meat and egg processing plants made shelf ready product in high demand. No reason to buy beef on the hoof if your plant is not running so yes over-supply on the farm and under supply on the store shelf can happen and pricing at both ends of the chain reflect different realities. No conspiracy and if you don't have product to sell you aren't getting rich selling at the new high price because you have little to sell.

Lumber is the same. Shutdowns that weren't forced by the government still resulted. Some by management scaling back in an uncertain environment, some by labor shortages even with widespread unemployment. Not a single mill I deal with is able to keep adequate workers to maintain full production. Fear and government incentives to not work plays a part. Framing lumber is high because they big mills can't produce enough to meet the demand they didn't expect and don't have the workers to produce. Paying extra for logs that are not in short supply makes no sense. Log prices will not move until log demand exceeds log supply. Producers never set pricing in commodity markets; supply and demand does. Traders had to pay to get rid of crude oil for a couple days but the mini-mart is never going to pay you to put gas in your tank. Not a conspiracy just supply and demand doing its thing. Big prices will either curb demand or increase production.

mike_belben · « **Reply #31 on:** August 30, 2020, 11:08:06 AM »

I was driving a truck into the same plants i always did through mid May and everything was pumping while toilet paper and hand sanitizer were gone.

I never saw a "shutdown" anywhere. Not a sawmill, brickplant, block, mulch, coils, hardie board, pressure treater. Heck my last backhaul was that hardie board out of plant city FL and there was 7 staging lanes of trucks completely full, trucks all over the entrance road and a flagger waving us away. Thats atleast 4x more loads booked than normal and they averaged 120 truck loads a day normal. I got a load of drainage tile out of south georgia to bounce home. Plant looked normal there too.

I read about closures that would disrupt supply chains. But i saw none. And i probably drove into more industrial locations than your average bear. The pulp trucks never stopped running on 68 or 127 either. atlanta journal said the everglades were plowing fruit under but i was there next morning.. No fresh tillage to be seen. This is the only tractor i ever saw working in 7 trips to south florida and hes mucking irrigation.

The contractor i was delivering to hardscapes for citrus barons.. Said he hadnt heard of this fruit crisis and his projects are in the $ million range. But how did i get into FL? The news said theres roadblocks all over? Nope. 75 was wide open. Scale and ag checkpoints were even closed.

Call me crazy i dont care,all i said was somethings fishy. Just tellin you the honest truth of what i witnessed first hand. Lord strike me dead if im lying.

These kinda lines to pick up TP and water were a month long. Plants were on mandatory OT. This demand insanity should always raise input prices under any circumstance. Youd need a concentration yard the size of rhode island for this much TP demand not to spike pulp prices.

ehp · « **Reply #32 on:** September 05, 2020, 10:12:33 PM »

up here most lumber yards are pretty bare , lots of stuff is sold out and whatever you get the price is up 50% , HMMMM I wonder when my price goes up .

ehp · « **Reply #33 on:** September 05, 2020, 10:22:19 PM »

OH Logger its the same here , mills are paying crazy prices for standing timber .

thecfarm · « **Reply #34 on:** September 06, 2020, 09:02:06 AM »

Now that's a line of trucks!!!

What do you do, wait in line for 6 hours to be loaded?

Ed_K · « **Reply #35 on:** September 06, 2020, 10:22:55 AM »

Last week I posted that the price of 1k bf of spf was up to almost $900. I checked yesterday afternoon and it's down below $670. a thousand.

Firewoodjoe · « **Reply #36 on:** September 06, 2020, 12:25:35 PM »

I don’t understand how things can be so different up and down all ever the place. I think it’s just uncertainty in the future that is controlling the market right now. I have worked lined up for the rest of the year so I hope it stays that way. My work I mean.

BargeMonkey · « **Reply #37 on:** September 06, 2020, 02:29:37 PM »

Chinese are still taking it as fast as it goes in the boxes, saw 2x debarkers and iron going the other day filling boxes when I dropped wood off. Decent ash, not the best couple sticks of maple and I averaged 700 straight thru.

ehp · « **Reply #38 on:** September 06, 2020, 08:21:28 PM »

China shut down all containers up here a week ago , said they are full of red oak and ash and walnut

mike_belben · « **Reply #39 on:** September 07, 2020, 12:17:03 AM »

Quote from: thecfarm on September 06, 2020, 09:02:06 AM

Now that's a line of trucks!!!
What do you do, wait in line for 6 hours to be loaded?

Probably more like 16. Thats why the govt had to suspend the hours of service.

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