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Author Topic: Log prices  (Read 24334 times)

nativewolf, Corley5 and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Online nativewolf

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #320 on: October 05, 2021, 10:22:36 AM »
Just by watching what is going on with lumber prices I'm sure thinking there is going to be alot of newer logging equipment for sale in not to much time .  Only thing here is the mills are out of logs so that will help in the short term . The one mill had to go back to 1 shift cause cannot get enough timber
That's what our buyers are saying- no logs.
Liking Walnut

Offline Wudman

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #321 on: October 05, 2021, 11:09:00 AM »
Trucking is the issue in the Southern Piedmont of Virginia.  We can get the wood to the deck (when employees show up), but can't get it to the mill.  We have trucks parked due to lack of drivers, and a handful of trucks parked waiting on parts.   :-\

Wud
“You may tear down statues and burn buildings but you can’t kill the spirit of patriots and when they’ve had enough this madness will end.”
Charlie Daniels
July 4, 2020 (2 days before his death)

Offline ehp

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #322 on: October 05, 2021, 12:26:36 PM »
We got lots of trucks here but loggers are getting harder to find as we are all getting older here. I'm guessing but I would think in my area the average age is 50 plus as hardly zero younger guys under 30 are doing it . Just means we got to work longer hours per week to try and get enough out .  

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #323 on: November 10, 2021, 07:12:41 AM »
Log price news is :

  • NRO veneer up to $1800 for smaller 14-20", black oak not allowed.
  • BO veneer about $1700 for rift is as high as I've seen it (export market)
  • Small WO veneer 14"-19", 3 sided, is averaging $3400 according to 2 buyers.  
  • YP peelers are $100/ton (8" min top-24" max dimension) and no more than 10 cut off branches/9' section, mill location sucks and it drops to $80 something at concentration yards closer to me.
  • Pulp is going crazy, $85 a ton in gulf coast of Alabama and $90 delivered to some mills in WV.  Again location sucks and you have to do serious volume to get that pricing- 2500 tons/week and negotiate.  For us small guys the concentration yards would pay us $44/ton but much less shipping.  Huge delta increase for producers able to negotiate higher pricing due to volume.  Sending it to that mill would be 1/trip/truck sort of deal
  • Cherry veneer has done ok from what little we've seen
  • Walnut is still smoking.  Large table top market is still hot so if you have family/friends/clients with that large old walnut field tree that is 60" and has had deer stands this is the time to lay it down and sell.  $8-14 metal ok.  We're selling 2 loads of that stuff this winter.  

No trucks...:(
Liking Walnut

Offline ehp

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #324 on: November 10, 2021, 03:19:46 PM »
The one hardwood mill here is down to a couple days in yard . It's the lowest any one has ever seen .  I have had other mills here looking and throwing around crazy numbers and 1 even came back twice more yesterday but I'm staying where I feel good and they are paying I feel me very well . I'm not burning any bridges when the crop hits the fan which it is going to 

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #325 on: November 10, 2021, 06:19:01 PM »
Almost all the loggers I know just don't like the current admin so I feel they are pessimistic and that makes me optimistic.  The order books are just through the roof so :-\.  I think what happens with the evergrande debt situation in China is worth watching.  Most of the debt is held by Chinese entities and only a few billion here.  The question is can China force a restructuring so as not to burst the real estate bubble.  The Chinese apartment size has tripled from 1990 to 2020 so that today the average new apartment in a Chinese city is actually much nicer than one in Tokyo or London for example.  The costs are just as much as London though, if not higher sometimes.  

The point there being that there is a huge amount of borrowed wealth tied up in real estate.  If China can pull off a restructuring without popping the bubble the base floor price for export hardwoods will stay elevated.  

The USA side of things is harder to figure out, we have lots of debt and huge savings at the same time.  I suspect that the spring could see a flood of housing sales as people rush to beat increasing interest rates designed to reduce inflation and money supply.  Not sure what happens in 2-3 years but i am sort of counting on strong demand for 2 more.  It started going crazy in August/Sept 2020.  4 years is a good cycle.  So for me I'm looking to grow til winter 2023/24.  Then we'll take some temperatures.  Of course any ol thing could happen and crash the markets.  China could try to invade Taiwan, etc.  None of this is advice just my personal ramblings.  

For now I found 2 more price increases today and a major investment in export markets based in VA.  Took all day to figure out who is behind it.  Barge's favorite folks.  

Our walnut table top maker immediately jumped when I invited him to look at some big uglies.  He gets excited at 40" or larger and some of them are a bit small.  There are 3 really decent butt logs that should have his attention so we'll push the rest to finish a load.  I need to post pictures in what we're cutting, might help someone out.  
Liking Walnut

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #326 on: November 11, 2021, 05:01:07 AM »
Pulp prices have been falling since July, but very slowly. Panel prices have been steady since mid August, no big shift up or down. Lumber prices have been falling since late October after a slight uptick in September - mid October, which happens in hurricane season any year. Right now 2 x 4's $800/th., on the high side for knotty wood with live edge corners. Rare to get square edge 2 x 4's. :D Local pricing on 2 x 6" x 16's fell $6 or $7 bucks a piece though in the last week, still $5 higher than 2019.

As to hemlock, that's like selling tamarack up here, not much money in it. So they stand in clear cuts to fall down in the fall winds. One mill wanted 40 acres of fir thinned, but you had to climb over cross piled tamarack. See you later, have a nice life. :D
“No amount of belief makes something a fact.” James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

Online nativewolf

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #327 on: November 11, 2021, 06:03:47 AM »
Surprised they don’t grab the tamarack for fence posts
Liking Walnut

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #328 on: November 11, 2021, 06:26:59 AM »
That market is white cedar. A cedar post will stand for over 40 years, tamarack will rot in 10.
“No amount of belief makes something a fact.” James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

Offline mike_belben

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #329 on: November 11, 2021, 07:42:39 AM »
Then they should be able to sell 4x more tamarack.  ;D
Isaiah 63:10

Offline moodnacreek

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #330 on: November 11, 2021, 08:10:49 AM »
That market is white cedar. A cedar post will stand for over 40 years, tamarack will rot in 10.
S.D., Is all of your w. cedar northern white cedar?  Asked another way, does any Atlantic w. c. grow in N.B. ?     

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #331 on: November 11, 2021, 08:27:19 AM »
All northern white. We call it eastern white cedar up here.

Here's some 3 foot diameter stuff, what we call upland white cedar.





Swamp white cedar, pretty much 90%+ white cedar in those stands. Lots of big leaners. :D Biggest there in photo is 24 inches @ dbh. For cedar posts I prefer the 140-160 year old ones in a swamp, about 4 to 6" diameter, tight rings, more rot resistant.



“No amount of belief makes something a fact.” James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #332 on: November 11, 2021, 08:39:56 AM »
Then they should be able to sell 4x more tamarack.  ;D
Go for it, Mike. :D You gotta crack the code of 'set in their ways'. ;D
“No amount of belief makes something a fact.” James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

Online wisconsitom

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #333 on: November 11, 2021, 09:29:07 AM »
Re "upland white-cedar":  Some researchers in Wisconsin once hypothesized that upland white-cedar was a separate subspecies from that growing in swamps.  Subsequent work revealed this not to be the case.  All same tree genetically.  

Better than most at tolerating a saturated soil, but best growth in more upland position.
Far as I can tell, it's 6 of one, half a dozen of the other...

Offline mike_belben

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #334 on: November 11, 2021, 09:34:23 AM »
Then they should be able to sell 4x more tamarack.  ;D
Go for it, Mike. :D You gotta crack the code of 'set in their ways'. ;D
Thats like trying to get $70 for a face cord in TN. It cant be done!   :D
Isaiah 63:10

Offline moodnacreek

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #335 on: November 11, 2021, 12:44:06 PM »
S.D., thanks for reply.  It is almost hard to believe those clumps of w.c. fence posts are the same species as those nice straight cedars growing up the bank.  Up near the boarder I would see at a cedar mill both dark brown and light gray bark and that apparently means nothing. One time I had erc, nwc, awc and dawn redwood logs at my place all at the same time. Down here the northern [white cedar] is rare unless planted.  there are not many who know these eastern cedars.

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #336 on: November 11, 2021, 01:00:39 PM »
Up near the boarder I would see at a cedar mill both dark brown and light gray bark and that apparently means nothing.
We see variation up here in yellow birch to, some is more silver colored than golden yellow. A lot to do with soil. I know sugar maple bark looks different off glacial sandy soil than around here on farm ground.
“No amount of belief makes something a fact.” James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #337 on: November 11, 2021, 01:06:14 PM »
I've seen the water table rise after a cedar swamp is cut, about all you get is a crop of cat tails, sedge and willows/alders after. ::)
“No amount of belief makes something a fact.” James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

Offline moodnacreek

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #338 on: November 11, 2021, 06:49:32 PM »
Up near the boarder I would see at a cedar mill both dark brown and light gray bark and that apparently means nothing.
We see variation up here in yellow birch to, some is more silver colored than golden yellow. A lot to do with soil. I know sugar maple bark looks different off glacial sandy soil than around here on farm ground.
Sugar maple in the north country sure is different [bark]. I always thought bark patterns where about age and growth rate of tree but apparently there is more to it. Identifying logs by bark alone [is what I do] but sometimes I have to bend over and look at the end grain or worse take a slab off.

Offline mike_belben

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Re: Log prices
« Reply #339 on: November 11, 2021, 07:24:58 PM »
I can only tell with white oaks at this point but the bark sure does tell the health story on a sick tree. 
Isaiah 63:10


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