Lumber prices too high

[Mooseherder]

It was nice not having to sort thru the piles to find quality. ;)

Riddle me this.  Looks like it is being shipped north and then treated in N.Y. or Mass.?

Wow.  The mill is In Bristol Florida.



 

[Southside]

Put more dry wood on a truck or train than treated. 

[SwampDonkey]

I've got treated red pine posts on the porches here. Floor decking is treated spruce and one deck is white cedar.

[WDH]

There are two groups of pines.  The white pines that have five needles to the fascicles (needles in bundles of five), also called the soft pines, and the yellow pines with either 2 needles or 3 needles to the fascicle, also called the hard pines.  

Red pine is in the yellow pine group.   There are a number of yellow pines such as red pine, Jack pine, lodge pole pine, pitch pine, pond pine, table mountain pine, sand pine, Virginia pine, and spruce pine.  Lobolloy, shortleaf, slash, and longleaf are also in the yellow pine group, but are classed separately as the four major Southern yellow pines (SYP) because of their much higher strength and density.  

[brianJ]

Put more dry wood on a truck or train than treated.

Also cheaper not to have all the hazardous materials and its regulations to deal with.

[barbender]

Alright Danny, you always have to remind us northern guys how much stronger your SYP is, don't you?😁

[moodnacreek]

From ring counts I have determined  that red pine  was planted around here from 1928 to 1950 +- on abandon hay fields. This is not pine country but a long long time ago there where stands. The old timers , back when this rural wanted to see pine. Red pine would be the fits all as it is stronger than white but can be used where ever white would. From what I gather most of these lots grew very slow, changed hands and where never thinned. Almost all have gone to the wood chipper and the land to housing. White pine would have done better.

[mudfarmer]

moodnacreek we have a lot of red pine plantations up here, state and county reforestation areas (abandoned farmland). This page tells the story better than I can: History Of State Forest Program - NYS Dept. of Environmental Conservation

Nowadays stumpage is selling for a lot of money out of those stands, especially if they were thinned and grew high quality poles.

Succession is taking over and as the pines are harvested the hardwoods that got established in the understory are released. The system worked :D

[Mooseherder]

From ring counts I have determined  that red pine  was planted around here from 1928 to 1950 +- on abandon hay fields. This is not pine country but a long long time ago there where stands. The old timers , back when this rural wanted to see pine. Red pine would be the fits all as it is stronger than white but can be used where ever white would. From what I gather most of these lots grew very slow, changed hands and where never thinned. Almost all have gone to the wood chipper and the land to housing. White pine would have done better.

The growth rings are incredible.  The year after the pith growth is abouth 1/2 inch. Every year after about 1/4 inch.  The 2x6 board I'm looking at is about 10 years old. :D

[Don P]

It was nice not having to sort thru the piles to find quality. ;)

Riddle me this.  Looks like it is being shipped north and then treated in N.Y. or Mass.?
In
Wow.  The mill is In Bristol Florida.



 

Looking at the stamp, the lumber was graded #1 at mill #338 under Timber Products Inspection's oversight, one of the grading agencies. It was then shipped to the treaters up north who are treating under the oversight of Southern Pine Inspection Bureau, a different grading agency. Ding Ding. Use Category 4A is ground contact, in the old CCA it would have been .60 pcf stuff. Good stuff. Foundation grade is UC4B. Watch the big boxes they can have stuff treated for indoor use  :. The treated our little building supply does a good trade in is usually #1 and nice stuff.

That's pushing the envelope growth rate wise. The percentage of latewood, the width of the dark ring, is the key when looking at it strengthwise. Wide latewood bands are strong, thin, light latewood bands are weak and will drop the grade. Bold grained yellow pine is strong, you can feel the difference when you pick up equally dry dense vs non-dense sticks.

I think I have a pic in the gallery that shows band width and specific gravity of dougfir, same idea.
Here it is;


 
That old growth fifty-eleven rings per inch stuff Bubba's been braggin about...   ;)  .

[Southside]

I can't stand cutting that wide ring pine.  Gum cants move less on the mill than that stuff does.  

[customsawyer]

Sounds like I asked the right question to get the juices flowing. Thanks for all of the info gents.

[stavebuyer]

April new home sales numbers;

Sales dropped 16.6% from March
Sales down 26.9% =vs April 2021
Annualized projected sales dropped to 591K units from 750K

Stock market decline has wiped off 5 trillion in "wealth" since January. Rich people aren't quite as rich and working folks are spending their pay raises on gas and groceries. Demand for houses hasn't changed but people's ability to pay for them has. 

Demand for lumber will ease as people are priced out of building.

[gspren]

All of the excavating and lot prep were done for a new local church and I heard yesterday that they are now on hold as projected costs for the actual building have gone up 40% from expected, what will the social security cost of living increase be next year?

[LeeB]

You can bet it won't come anywhere close to the inflation rate.

[SwampDonkey]

SS increase will probably be same as Canada Pension, only goes up by a few dollars a month, wouldn't amount to $200 a year more. When my grandfather was first getting his pension he could buy a brand new F150 pickup every year. Not gonna now, that's how out of step the Canada Pension plan is, underfunded. You can bet government union pensions are out pacing them. Government has lost lots of money speculating with their union pension money, and they've always topped them up, so they are not subject to risk like you and me on private plans. If your on a company pension, and it goes down, you have nothing. Companies have been known to steal from the fund for operating capital when they are about to go bust. Landegger did it. Not long after, he was caught for tax evasion. Some of that pension money went in his pocket. Like I told anyone at a mill, you better put your money into your own pension fund because it won't be there when you retire. Been several mills over the years that have defaulted. No legal recourse.

[stavebuyer]

I visited one of my old partners mills this morning and asked him about the large number of 4x6 cants stacked about. He said he had confirmed purchase orders for 4 of the 7 loads he had piled up and the buyer was balking about picking them up citing excess inventory and slower sales. Nationwide buyer. He found an alternative at a lower price. I see mostly full log yards at area mills. We got another raise on stave logs while thick stock White Oak lumber is dropping. I'd be moving all I could before the July 4 holiday.  

[SwampDonkey]

2x4" softwood lumber and panel prices haven't budge much for a month. Been a flat line on the price side.

[stavebuyer]

Don't know when will see at it retail but lumber futures are flirting with $600/mbf
Lumber PRICE Today | Lumber Spot Price Chart |

[rusticretreater]

SS cost of living adjustment was 5.9%, highest in 40 years.

[stavebuyer]

Ohio Valley Veneer lowered their Walnut log pricing 500/mbf across the board effective June 13th. They are one of the larger Walnut sawlog buyers here.

[WDH]

Bought a sheet of 1/2" CDX pine sheathing plywood last week.  $46. 

[SwampDonkey]

Prices fell to CDN$950/th on 2x4" #2 and better.

Panel prices have not budged much since early March.

[TroyC]

From what I'm reading, lumber prices are falling, around $600/1000. Of course, that's not the retail segment.

For those of you out there 'in the know', what's your prediction for how long this will take to trickle down to the local retailers? Also, how long do you think it is going to take for stumpage prices to crater?

I talked to a l logger last week. He says he is seeing that mills are full of logs and they are cutting their hours back. He thinks a price pullback is in the very near future.

[SwampDonkey]

August we'll possibly see it, if the hurricanes don't blow everyone down.

OSB is way too high yet for junk wood and glue.