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Author Topic: How long???  (Read 782 times)

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Offline metalspinner

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How long???
« on: October 07, 2021, 06:03:08 PM »
How long can a company stay in business not being able to deliver their product??

All these equipment manufactures canít deliver equipment to their customers for months or years even. How long can that be sustained?? Even with down payments collected, that canít be enough to keep things going? Accessories, parts, etc also need to feed the beast. 

With an unreliable supply chain -starting with the very first link all the way over there then all the way to over here - how long can they hold out??
I doubt most are operating in the black under normal circumstances - meaning without debt. 
Not trying to be a Debby Downer, just wondering out loud, I guess.  ::)
I do what the little voices in my wife's head tell me to do.

Offline WV Sawmiller

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Re: How long???
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2021, 07:16:51 PM »
   I'd guess you are not really expecting an answer to that question. Some companies will be able to juggle money and assets to borrow more as needed using the customer orders as collateral and borrow money against them, as needed, to stay in business till, hopefully, it is over. Others will be less successful. Remember too, for every business that fails leaving a niche some savvy entrepreneur will be waiting in the wings to fill the gap. There will no doubt be humps and valleys and the most frustrating thing for us now is the uncertainty.

   I'm an optimist at heart and can't just give up and roll over and quit. We will all have to make adjustments but there are still reputable dealers out there who will honor their promises and stand by their work.

  I had a good friend and co-worker who used to say "Where there's confusion - there's money to be made!" He was right. One man sees a fallen tree. The next sees firewood and lumber. We all just have to stick together and be flexible and seize the opportunities as they come up.

  It reminds me of the story about a bankrupt railroad nobody could keep running. A savvy businessman bought it and everyone laughed knowing he'd lose his shirt trying to operate it at a profit. He sold the equipment and made his money back. He sold the rails and crossties and made a profit then he became a real estate tycoon selling the land he had cut up into lots and became mega-rich in the process.
Howard Green
WM LT35HDG25(2015) , 2009 4wd Dodge PU, Kawasaki 650 ATV, Sthil 440 & 441, homemade logging arch (w/custom built rear log dolly), JD 750 w/4' wide Bushhog brand FEL

Dad always said "You can shear a sheep a bunch of times but you can only skin him once"

Offline 21incher

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Re: How long???
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2021, 07:18:56 PM »
I have  had a Kubota  sidekick on order a couple  months.  Originally the dealer was trying  to find one because the line had shut down due to lack of engines back in May. Then the production was supposed to start Aug 1 but from what I was told they couldn't find enough  people  willing to go back to work. I was promised mid September but now have no idea. My dealer had a empty  lot most of the summer with high demand for tractors and now they are finally  starting to trickle  in. They still are having problems getting attachments and replacement parts. He is one of the few small local dealers left and I really hope he survives.  Luckily he has a propane, diesel, and fuel oil business  also to have a income. I have read barring another deadly mutation of covid or war with China over Taiwan things should  start getting  back to normal 3rd quarter next year. New car lots are also empty here but dealers are staying afloat by charging full msrp or higher at this point on what they get in. There are a couple  million  vehicles  assembled in lots that will start hitting the market as soon as chips are available that should  help. There are thousands of containers with replacement  inventory on ships floating off the shore of California waiting  to be unloaded held up by a shortage of truckers and dockworkers so that usually  adds 40 days to the trip and stretches out shortages.  I read Amazon is looking  into building another port and obtain their own ships and Costco is now leasing smaller container vessels that are easier to find port space. Getting people  back to work will help speed up seeing  an end to this problem.  Inflation and consumer spending is another variable. 
Hudson HFE-21 on a custom trailer, Deere 4100, Kubota BX 2360, Echo CS590 & CS310, home built wood splitter, home built log arch, and a logrite cant hook.

Offline WV Sawmiller

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Re: How long???
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2021, 07:27:15 PM »
   Perseverance and flexibility!
Howard Green
WM LT35HDG25(2015) , 2009 4wd Dodge PU, Kawasaki 650 ATV, Sthil 440 & 441, homemade logging arch (w/custom built rear log dolly), JD 750 w/4' wide Bushhog brand FEL

Dad always said "You can shear a sheep a bunch of times but you can only skin him once"

Offline Ianab

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Re: How long???
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2021, 08:52:00 PM »
With an unreliable supply chain -starting with the very first link all the way over there then all the way to over here - how long can they hold out??


Locally at least, no one is "shut down" as such.  When you see sawmill makers pushing orders out 6 months or more, it's not that they aren't still moving sawmills, just the ones they are delivering now were ordered 6 months ago. 

The supply chain issues are real, and compound each other. The integrated circuit factory is behind, so they are late getting the chips to the engine ECU maker, who is late getting their electronic module to the engine maker, who's then late with the engines to the sawmill maker.... Throw in some disruptions to air and sea freight... 

Stuff is still moving, just not as efficiently as usual. Sharon was looking at a new mail van from Toyota. They are popular, and Toyota usually has then in stock, or maybe on a ship due to dock next week. Right now they are sold out, all the ones on the ships are pre-sold, and you need to wait ~6 weeks for more to be made and shipped from the factory. So the Dealers aren't dead in the water, they have some stock on the yard, and are still selling vehicles. Just there might be a wait for the one you want. 

This sort of thing might push a wobbly business over the edge of course.
That's where this comes in...

 
   Perseverance and flexibility!
Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

Offline metalspinner

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Re: How long???
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2021, 09:06:00 PM »
My tiny, little music accessory business has the opposite issue. I have my products, but no customers! Well, I have some but not much. 
My supply chain is very short consisting of just a few vendors to me. But one of my key vendors was in an horrific vehicle accident and he has not been able to work for 5 months now. He is just now getting back to his shop in a limited way. 
To some extent the slowed business due to the economy has allowed us to  stay just barely ahead of our situation. 
My problem is all of my eggs are in one basket (musicians) and I have just one supplier of some key components. 
But things are opening back up in my corner of the world. Hoping the trend continues upward ???
I do what the little voices in my wife's head tell me to do.

Offline Ianab

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Re: How long???
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2021, 11:36:22 PM »
Musicians might be a group that have been hit more by Covid restrictions? venues closed, lack of gigs etc. 
Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

Offline Old Greenhorn

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Re: How long???
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2021, 06:37:26 AM »
Musicians might be a group that have been hit more by Covid restrictions? venues closed, lack of gigs etc.
That has been an interesting one to observe. I have many friends making their full time living from the music industry but not at the 'big recording companies ' (which doesn't really exist anymore).  My closest friends had their full band scheduled for a month long Australian and New Zealand tour in April-May of 2020, followed by a US tour for the remainder of May into June as a release for their new album, and they had just finalized all the plans in February of 2020 and bought their air tickets in march, which alone were over $10k. Then the bottom fell out and they nearly went bankrupt after laying out all the expenses for 5 people for a month trip (think tour bus rental, hotels, meals, etc). They did manage to get almost all of it back, but it took a while. Album sales without touring were 'rough'. They spent the next year with no real income. All the venues around here were in very sad shape and those that sold food tried doing take out in some form just to keep the kitchen working and the lights on. The artists resorted to doing online concerts from their homes or backyards with a digital tip jar to pay rent and buy food. Some studio work got done, but that had issues with social distancing. Some of you may know Amy Helm (Levon's daughter), she took one or two band mates and they would drive to someone's house in town that was having a birthday or something special and they would play on the road in front of their house so the neighbors could come out and listen, then pack up and go to another house. Just to cheer folks up and make some music, there was no money involved. They would do that a day or two a week for a while. 
 Things are picking up and a lot of venues have added outdoor space. I went to my first public gig 2 weeks ago and the place made a nice beer garden with a full outdoor stage and sound booth. Picnic tables at wide spacings, all fenced in. About 2 acres in size. But that is weather dependent and they have lost a lot of income due to weather. Indoor spaces are touch and go, ebb and flow.
 The industry was hit hard for sure and will be permanently different when the smoke clears I think.
Tom Lindtveit, Woodsman Forest Products
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OK, maybe I am the woodcutter now.
I can work with wood, but I am NOT a Woodworker, yet.

Offline Old Greenhorn

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Re: How long???
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2021, 07:09:14 AM »
I meant to add in my previous post that I also have a good friend who is a high end luthier, he builds and also does repairs on more valuable legacy instruments. He is overloaded x 2. He has had to change his tracking system for repairs because he has so many and is running out of space to keep them. So many of the full time studio, theater, and touring pros are out of work that they are sending in instruments for fixes they have been delaying for years. Then he has orders for new custom builds from scratch. Those instruments can take up to a year to deliver under perfect circumstances, but now? I think he has 2 years work backed up right now. So luthiers are doing OK, but that is a small world. Most of them either work alone or have just one apprentice. Their wood was bought years ago for the most part, and hardware for them does not seem to be an issue yet.
Tom Lindtveit, Woodsman Forest Products
Oscar 328 Band Mill, Husky 450, 372 (Clone), Mule 3010, and too many hand tools. :) Retired and trying to make a living to stay that way. NYLT Certified.
OK, maybe I am the woodcutter now.
I can work with wood, but I am NOT a Woodworker, yet.

Offline PoginyHill

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Re: How long???
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2021, 07:30:02 AM »
And I thought I was going to read about that 70's song by "Ace".
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Offline HemlockKing

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Re: How long???
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2021, 07:32:11 AM »
Thatís exactly what came to mind for me when I first read the title. Hooowwww longg, has this been going on ??? 

Offline metalspinner

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Re: How long???
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2021, 09:42:16 AM »
Oldgreenhorn,
My world is the classical music and jazz worlds, mostly. With all concert seasons cancelled, studio work cancelled, universityís, etc, my customer base is struggling. But things are beginning to open back up. 

The long term effects on Arts organizations with all of this is still TBD. Most struggle in the best of times much less with what we are currently going through. This industry is always the first affected by an economic downturn and the last to recover from it. 
I do what the little voices in my wife's head tell me to do.

Offline Resonator

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Re: How long???
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2021, 10:17:41 AM »
What kind of music accessory? ???
Under bark there's boards and beams, somewhere in between.
Cuttin' while its green, through a steady sawdust stream.
I'm chasing the sawdust dream.

Proud owner of a Wood-Mizer 2017 LT28G19

Offline WV Sawmiller

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Re: How long???
« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2021, 10:30:02 AM »
  Obviously some industries have been harder hit and will continue to take longer to recover. The hospitality industry has been very hard hit with sit down and self serve restaurants routinely going belly up. A few quickly adapted to carry out and survived and some may have even benefited by reduced labor and operating costs. Also they were often the only game in town. Hotels and public transport have and continue to be hard hit. 

   The arts and anything involving large crowds have suffered. I don't know how you get past this constraint. I assume different types of advertising and presentation and such could help. 

   Other than some delays and difficulties in getting parts and supplies it has been a good time for portable sawmill operations. I'm working outside where social distancing have never been an issue. Lumber prices have encouraged DIY lumber production as well as the fact many customers have unexpected time on their hands. 

   Some members have jumped on new niches such as building and selling raised planters that could be simply, quickly and cheaply built and for which there was a sudden market from customers with time on their hands and/or fear they needed to grow their own foods. Demand for things like tomato stakes have increased. 

   New markets are emerging as quickly as old ones close. its just a matter of recognizing and jumping on them. The same is true for repair parts and new equipment. We have to be diligent in looking for new sources or ways to modify or extend the existing supplies and equipment we are using.
Howard Green
WM LT35HDG25(2015) , 2009 4wd Dodge PU, Kawasaki 650 ATV, Sthil 440 & 441, homemade logging arch (w/custom built rear log dolly), JD 750 w/4' wide Bushhog brand FEL

Dad always said "You can shear a sheep a bunch of times but you can only skin him once"

Offline Sedgehammer

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Re: How long???
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2021, 12:50:26 PM »
How long can a company stay in business not being able to deliver their product??

All these equipment manufactures canít deliver equipment to their customers for months or years even. How long can that be sustained?? Even with down payments collected, that canít be enough to keep things going? Accessories, parts, etc also need to feed the beast.

With an unreliable supply chain -starting with the very first link all the way over there then all the way to over here - how long can they hold out??
I doubt most are operating in the black under normal circumstances - meaning without debt.
Not trying to be a Debby Downer, just wondering out loud, I guess.  ::)

Supposedly will be far worse next year

4 to 6 week wait currently to get containers unloaded

Manufacturing providences in china are working 1 to 3 days a week only due to the severe electricity shortage.  Some using candle light to work to use less electricity

Offline 21incher

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Re: How long???
« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2021, 06:31:45 PM »


Supposedly will be far worse next year

4 to 6 week wait currently to get containers unloaded

Manufacturing providences in china are working 1 to 3 days a week only due to the severe electricity shortage.  Some using candle light to work to use less electricity

What I'm hearing from my contacts over there is they have been running 7 days a week for sometime now and are basically caught up on old orders. The problem is California docks are only running 5 days a week at reduced capacity making things drag out and backing up shipping out of China. Seems like the military or national guard stepping in and helping get the docks running full capacity 7 days a week could eliminate the shortages in a short period of time and actually get empty containers back to China that would help keep costs down. China definitely is starting to have major electric shortages. No one on this end of the chain seems be interested in solving problems. 
Hudson HFE-21 on a custom trailer, Deere 4100, Kubota BX 2360, Echo CS590 & CS310, home built wood splitter, home built log arch, and a logrite cant hook.

Offline Ianab

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Re: How long???
« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2021, 12:45:35 AM »
This video came up today. The guy is involved in the shipping industry and goes over the main reasons for the mess that global shipping is in. It's not one simple reason, it's more a perfect storm of things that are going on.

Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

Offline Gary_C

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Re: How long???
« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2021, 04:28:00 AM »
That is an amazing video and worth watching just to see the live maps of the ships at sea.
Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

Offline Claybraker

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Re: How long???
« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2021, 08:36:03 AM »
I liked that video and his analysis of the Golden Ray was really helpful. Sort of a local interest story here. 

Offline 21incher

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Re: How long???
« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2021, 10:02:11 AM »
Love that map showing the ship locations. Another thing I am seeing is Chinese companies that shipped items individually before  the pandemic by carriers  like DHL & FedEx now building warehouses here and stocking products in the USA that used to be stocked in China.  This also adds to the bubble  but ensures products get to the buyers quickly. 
Pretty  amazing how different  areas are recovering.  Where I live it's  basically  back to normal.  Businesses all survived,  kids are back to school, masks are mostly  gone, stores are fully stocked, my trailer  dealer went from zero inventory a couple  months ago to over 100 trailers today,and the harvests going on now are amazing. The only problems  now are shortages of cars, trucks, tractors, atvs, and backups in health care that started last week after all the layoffs over the vaccine. 
Hudson HFE-21 on a custom trailer, Deere 4100, Kubota BX 2360, Echo CS590 & CS310, home built wood splitter, home built log arch, and a logrite cant hook.


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