Lumber prices too high

[SwampDonkey]

Been a little uptick in 2x4's over the last month CDN $800/th, about same as a year ago. Must be the rebuilding after the hurricanes. Panel and pulp prices have been flat.

[HemlockKing]

Been a little uptick in 2x4's over the last month CDN $800/th, about same as a year ago. Must be the rebuilding after the hurricanes. Panel and pulp prices have been flat.

Everybody around me has been building new sheds, garages etc while the price is low, mostly I think that time is passing though as like you said uptick in 2x4 sticks 

[Resonator]

Looking at that picture of the Alps makes me want to play "Matterhorn".  ;D
(Many have tried and many have died, to climb the Matterhorn, the mighty Matterhorn.) 
smile_banjoman

[Ed_K]

 Price yesterday on the exchange for 1mbf of spf was up to $700.

[SwampDonkey]

2 x 4" prices have dropped $100 this month so far. OSB is $15.60 a sheet now. Pulp slow gradual decline. All on the government price tracking page.

[SwampDonkey]

Pricing has been stable, but I'm seeing 'out of stock' at Kent's website. Kent is a hardware and building centre franchise licensed by the Irvings to owner operators. The local one was just doubled in size this past year at the same time Home Hardware built a new store the size of a Home Depot on new developed land. But it is not stocked like a Home Depot, lots of wasted floor space. You could drive a transport truck between the isles.

[ehp]

I wish this scotch and red pine I'm cutting right now was worth double . Its up a fair bit from last year but way way less than white pine 

[SwampDonkey]

We only get good money on red pine if for poles and log cabin wood. Not worth much for posts, except after it is treated it's a fortune. :D Our Scots pine here is crooked junk. Straight jack pine is good lumber wood, but not as good a price as spruce. Which itself is less than it was 20 years ago. :

[ehp]

spruce here is brutal in price , not even worth cutting its that bad, spruce is the same price as willow which is pretty much nothing , your cutting cost is more than what the tree is worth and you still got to truck it 

[SwampDonkey]

About the size of it, at $40/cord trucking. :D

[SwampDonkey]

Prices over CDN $1200 on 2 x 4" at year end, will get new data Thursday.

premium 2 x 6" x 16'  $20.69 each  locally
      #2    2 x 6" x 16'  $19.74 each

[Southside]

Just keep grubbing that pine ground to make room for more solar "farms". It'll work out. 

[mike_belben]

it does appear we will go from a glutton to a shortage without ever passing stable equilibrium like how things used to work.

[moodnacreek]

Old boy comes in yesterday, says he needs a few hundred foot of 1x for a temporary plastic covered shelter to heat masonary. Says he got his barn siding from me 20 years ago. Says I, lumber prices went back up, says he, thats why I'm here.     He is the first one to tell the truth!   All the rest , of the unknowns, say the came here because they buy local. B.S.            Mr. tell the truth will get a deal.

[mike_belben]

for a while my wife was employed by a family that owns the two most expensive gas stations in town, and i bought my gas there.  still do on the rare occasion when i have $10 more than i owe that day.  why was the cost higher?  because they pay and treat their people better.. theyre all small town family and not a walmart grinding the cheapest human to dirt.

i figure it as paying myself. i know that money i sent out is coming back to me.  not going to a NJ shell corp owned by some foreign billionaire, gone forever. those dollars come straight back to the belbens on friday, almost like a savings bond.

[HemlockKing]

Small business profits go back into the town they reside typically, it helps everyone in that town buying local, not just the business. When you buy stuff from big box stores it all gets sent overseas or hoarded into big cities. When they're are more small business, big guys cost lowers meaning even local business cost lowers. These days government work closely with top .1 to regulate all that out, hardly real capitalism.

[BradMarks]

Green DF. 2x4x8, #2 Better, just under $6 this weekend. Was down to $3+ a while back.

[mike_belben]

we havent seen a $6 2x4 since 2018 and were 2 hours to georgia pine, with pine plantations 5 or 8 miles from home as the crow flies. 

[kantuckid]

The SPF market is now around $1,100. Tariff's are a reality from our current government, (they went up! and larger story line therein) that affect Canadian wood coming in from mostly B.C., CA where over 50% of North American SPF comes from. 
I paid $300MBF for top grade WP logs delivered to the mill here in KY last week. Same logger gets same price from a larger, local mill that ships those EWP logs on his trucks to another buyer in N KY, at a price point that covers trucking 2 hours above us. Locally the lower grade EWP gets ~ 20cents from the cabin trade mills. There isn't much EWP growing here now and often little market for pine of any species.
Couple of local post mills get the field pine in this area.
So I've read, larger home builders don't care about the lumber price influences on home costs, just their supply & labor issues, as home prices are insane lately.
 Low interest mortgages drives that whole senario?  
   

[SwampDonkey]

2" x 4" x 8' SPF is CDN $4.91 local

[mike_belben]

So I've read, larger home builders don't care about the lumber price influences on home costs, just their supply & labor issues, as home prices are insane lately.
Low interest mortgages drives that whole senario?  
 

money printing, cheap debt, big box retail seeing the chance to gouge on scarcity news drama, covid migration, political migration, covid induced YOLO culture, and de-dollarization.  that is foreign held dollars flooding into the US to be exchanged for real assets before we print the dollar even lower. 
all have contributed to demands outstripping supplies.  the price must reconcile the sudden imbalance.  retailers cant change supply or demand.  only price.  

[Nebraska]

First week or so of December 1/2" cdx was around 20.00$ sheet. Decided I'd take a bite after the first of the year. Checked over the weekend  35.00$  :. 'C'est la vie'.....

[mike_belben]

doh.  

the 4 state tornado sent us right back up as it was just starting to come down to inflation corrected normal. 

[Southside]

Just wait until the newly created cross border trucker shortage surcharge hits. 

[moodnacreek]

I here bits and pieces about people wanting the start softwood/stud sawmills, one up in the Adirondacks. they better hurry up. Right now it would work for sure but this could drop dead before the mortgage is paid off. That is what happens to sawmills all the time.