I just got off the phone with another contractor. Prices just went out of sight here. He had a job cancel, I'm sitting on the siding. We had cleared and prepped his site for the job following that, they are thinking and not in a good way. I said we might want to think about sawing framing and board sheathing, some of the goods jumped 50-75% over the past 2 weeks. I imagine its a short term supply chain hiccup and some gouging but it might be worth checking around you and thinking about it. All we need is to kill another sector right now ::)
Interesting and potentially ominous. Perhaps an opportunity. Good report in any case.
I'll check around here tomorrow and see what's going on with prices.
It'll be interesting to see what other FF members are seeing around the country.
After the second Gulf war osb prices went into the stratosphere. 4/4 cottonwood became easy to sell. I always thought it superior to osb anyhow.
We were having that conversation, it was crap at $5, it purely stinks at 20. The labor difference is significant but it's worth seeing if we've crossed that pain point.
Got a call the other day that locally 2x4's can't be sourced. The composite price for SYP has been going up every week all summer for what that's worth.
Oddly enough, I had a big local house building outfit call today wanting to buy me out of my SYP 3"x3" furniture leg stock. They use them to build hollow core mantles and lost their supplier. I said "Sure, come and get them."
We will see if they do, my prices aren't cheap.
Quote from: YellowHammer on August 11, 2020, 10:34:09 PM
Oddly enough, I had a big local house building outfit call today wanting to buy me out of my SYP 3"x3" furniture leg stock. They use them to build hollow core mantles and lost their supplier. I said "Sure, come and get them."
We will see if they do, my prices aren't cheap.
Yup, but I'll bet your quality is high. Factor in a bit better dimensional accuracy and lower defect losses and with a higher utilisation ratio and some time saving because of it... expensive works out not so expensive after all.
And the most expensive guy around is often the last man standing when things get really bad.
Quote from: longtime lurker on August 12, 2020, 12:01:47 AM
Quote from: YellowHammer on August 11, 2020, 10:34:09 PM
Oddly enough, I had a big local house building outfit call today wanting to buy me out of my SYP 3"x3" furniture leg stock. They use them to build hollow core mantles and lost their supplier. I said "Sure, come and get them."
We will see if they do, my prices aren't cheap.
Yup, but I'll bet your quality is high. Factor in a bit better dimensional accuracy and lower defect losses and with a higher utilisation ratio and some time saving because of it... expensive works out not so expensive after all.
that's my fame in the area, "if you go to the swiss have a good stand on both feet when he names his price!(https://forestryforum.com/board/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) it will cost you an arm and a leg, but the quality is impeccable" (https://forestryforum.com/board/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
Was talking to a long time local logger last night, he is working double time because every small mill in the area is buying up any logs they can due to customers not being able to get what they need at the box stores. Sounds good to me for everyone but the box stores ???
We are waiting 10-12 weeks for dimensional lumber here. Trusses that used to come in 10 days or 6-8 weeks out. My thoughts are it is the bubble from the shutdown and hopefully it will ease by winter.
Talked to 2 contractors in Southwestern PA and all their wood orders are backordered 6-8 weeks. It's a weird experience to walk down completely empty aisles of products. Pressure treated is the real hard to find stuff. You can get it but you have to wait. Prices haven't moved as much as other areas. Maybe 10%?
This weekend I cut cherry at 5/8" to sheath my kiln (long story). But now I'm thinking I'll check on the price of a load of poplar.
Going from memory of last night's conversation he had priced 16' pt decking at around $15 a stick, when he went in to order it was $25. I wouldn't saw on spec but it might be worth filling some of the short term need. We have a new temp building official (yes I did the happy dance for a solid week 8) :D) I haven't had the grading conversation with him but that should factor into any decision someone might make as far as sawing structural lumber, technically even sheathing, but it would take a rel piece of work to require it there.
One of the building stores I deal with here in Oregon had a supplier wanting to get $24 a sheet for 7/16ths OSB on Monday. Earlier in the the year they were retailing at $6.50.
We are waiting 10-12 weeks for dimensional lumber here. Trusses that used to come in 10 days or 6-8 weeks out. My thoughts are it is the bubble from the shutdown and hopefully it will ease by winter, but prices are rising.
Quote from: Stephen1 on August 12, 2020, 11:10:02 AMbut prices are rising.
Well.. Perhaps the money is just falling.
;)
Cruised a HD yesterday just to check out lumber prices. $3.96 for 2x4x8ft spf. Not real good looking 2x4's either. Looked like young stuff, maybe from a chip-n-saw operation. Lot of wane and pin knots.
OSB prices were just like what everyone else is seeing. Treated lumber in stock, but very high.
I was going to talk to the guys at the pro desk and see what their real inventory was like, but it was too busy with customers.
Seemed to be plenty of sacrete on hand outside, FWIW.
Transit mix is running $155/yd here.
My contractor informed me that in the Bangor area dimensional is in stock but PT is like gold. He had trouble getting enough for 2 small decks and my steps. We are getting composite deck boards and need the PT for the frame and supports.
Customers are getting lumber yard sticker shock and I am sawing wide open with no end in sight. :o
Hopefully this will mean more business for the one-man-band sawmill operations.
I hauled a lot of PT lumber from the treater in stony point NC, back to the greater knoxville area home depots until i quit in may. When the 'rona first hit most receivers were complaining they had too much, with no where to put the wood and no idea why the management kept ordering more. I guess that has changed.
I hauled OSB out of arauco and idaho timber from hendersonville few times also.
Quote from: Resonator on August 13, 2020, 07:55:29 PM
Hopefully this will mean more business for the one-man-band sawmill operations.
What about me, one man circle?
My plan for shutting down in the heat of summer has went by the way side. Price of box store lumber is at least part of it.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/18028/20200813_161530.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1597358804)
That's 11 foot popular with a pine or two mixed in on the left. Been cutting 16 foot two bys the last two days. Tim
When are u gonna show us that old needle nose in the background?
My son works for a lumber yard and as fast as the lumber comes in it's gone. Just can't keep up and I'm not even sure what the price is. This covid stuff sure has changed sales in different areas.
On occasion I have sawn pine 6 x 6 's for a lumber wholesaler. The price is normally too low , but if we are overstocked we'll cut a few. Recently said buyer called to offer $100/m more if we'd cut a semi-load and prepay. Having more pine logs than I needed I agreed. Finished the order , called it in , and he replied , "cut me another load and add another $100/ m. "Will do. " ;D
It's not like there is a shortage of trees. There might be a shortage of loggers / sawmills / kilns/ treatment plants. Demand might suddenly go up by 50%, but you can't instantly up production by 50% to match.
If large mills etc aren't running near 100% capacity they aren't economically viable. But you can't make an operation that's running @95% capacity to suddenly ramp up to 150%.
But then if you borrow millions of $$ to upgrade. them next year the markets drop back to normal?
Thats pretty much what the obama to trump transition did to the firearms business.
QuoteWhat about me, one man circle?
May your circle be unbroken. ;D
I'm kinda feeling old and in the way :D
I would post you a link to that but I don't know how. Tim
I check on the Home Depot website on a 2x6x12 SYP board, and figuring BF the way that I figure BF, the price is $1.29/bf. The way that I figure bf is the actual dimension, and if a board is planed, I add 1/4" back to get the initial rough dimension. So a dressed 2x6x12 is figured at 1.5" thick plus .25" to put the wood planed off back on to get a initial rough thickness of 1.75". I left the width at 6" figuring that the board had to be a bit wider than the 5.5" finished width when rough. So that 2x6x12 figures in at 10.5 bf. Price is $13.50 inc. tax.
Common softwood lumber has been cheap for long time. I wonder how long this will last.
Quote from: WDH on August 14, 2020, 07:47:35 AM
I check on the Home Depot website on a 2x6x12 SYP board, and figuring BF the way that I figure BF, the price is $1.29/bf. The way that I figure bf is the actual dimension, and if a board is planed, I add 1/4" back to get the initial rough dimension. So a dressed 2x6x12 is figured at 1.5" thick plus .25" to put the wood planed off back on to get a initial rough thickness of 1.75". I left the width at 6" figuring that the board had to be a bit wider than the 5.5" finished width when rough. So that 2x6x12 figures in at 10.5 bf. Price is $13.50 inc. tax.
I figure they pay roughly $0.3X/bdft for good pine sawlogs delivered. Wonder what all the costs are on the pine mills. Seems they or brokers should be making a killing.
Very interesting thread.....When Covid hit, I thought small sawmills were gonna hurt bigtime....I was so wrong.....I have never been this busy...ever...
An article I read online may hold some merit...said there is much more money around than we realize and those normally spending 20 G's a year on air travel are now spending on reno's etc..
Also said the trade disputes between Canada and the US on commodity lumber has been effective at curbing/slowing Canadian imports of lumber into the US. An increase in demand everywhere has caused a ripple in the supply line. A large one supposedly.
Regardless...it seems it is a good time to be in the small sawmill business...
Sat down to look at a sample piece someone sent me in the mail yesterday to match a profile and jumped on here, phone rings twice, both decent sized orders, and I have not even looked at the piece yet. The challenge is finding help that will actually work.
I am thankful that my Grandson Luke is helping me this Summer because the customers can't find help either.
And then on a side note; we get much more done when there is not additional help. Having to tell them what to do and then expecting them to do it cost time. :-\
Quote from: Southside on August 14, 2020, 09:16:17 AM
The challenge is finding help that will actually work.
So right you are! Might get easier since the 50,000.00$ per year not to work is going away.
Quote from: WDH on August 14, 2020, 07:47:35 AM
I check on the Home Depot website on a 2x6x12 SYP board, and figuring BF the way that I figure BF, the price is $1.29/bf. The way that I figure bf is the actual dimension, and if a board is planed, I add 1/4" back to get the initial rough dimension. So a dressed 2x6x12 is figured at 1.5" thick plus .25" to put the wood planed off back on to get a initial rough thickness of 1.75". I left the width at 6" figuring that the board had to be a bit wider than the 5.5" finished width when rough. So that 2x6x12 figures in at 10.5 bf. Price is $13.50 inc. tax.
Dont worry theyre selling the sawdust and shavings too :)
Started my mill and drying shed, been cutting the posts and beams. Decided I'm too busy to get the shed done so I called a local pole barn builder/lumber yard, they've done work for me in the past. When I asked them for a price, he just laughed and said he had 23 estimates laying on his desk he wouldn't even price out cause they can't get a handle on pricing or when they'll have product. He said call him back in 8-10 weeks.
Decided to check with a few other outfits and got the same response. Well that won't do, so we're back to building it ourselves. Called for rafters, they're also 8-12 weeks out,,,,maybe. They asked what we want them for, told him I'm putting up a post frame. He chuckled and said good luck finding a treated post in this part of the country. Lucky we're cutting our own WRC posts, I guess we'll be cutting everything. I think it's a good time to have a small mill operation.
QuoteDont worry theyre selling the sawdust and shavings too
And then look what they charge for a little bag of wood chips for BBQ smoking. Makes me want to buy a chipper. :D
I'm glad I read this thread. Now I understand why I can't keep any pine lumber in stock. People are buying it before it has a chance to dry. I know, it's a nice problem to have. I cut down a pine a couple days ago, finished bringing the logs out today. I was planning to cut one more but I think I'll go back for two or three more. I might as well saw what's selling.
So are your lumber prices still the same?
I raised mine a bit, probably where they should've been in the first place. I'm selling pine lumber for .80/bf green off the mill. It costs me about .20/bf.
Mr Lynn,
I cut my crew back to just 2 helpers.The extra help added to much stress to me.Having to tell them to make every move.I made less product.
Had more orders today.
One customer told me cheap 7/16 osb is $20 a sheet.
Folks can't find treated lumber.
I have never been so busy the word is out about my service.
One customer told me I'm to low on prices.
Thinking about going up,but don't know what to do.
I would think that labor that is not producing and earning their keep would be a total drain on your bottom line.
As yet I have not raised my sawing price nor do I intend to but for jobs over ~30 miles, I have added a $25 per day "return visit" fee. This is in addition to my one time $1.50 per mile one way travel and setup fee. Every customer has said that the daily return fee is reasonable and understandable.
Of course I am only in the sawing business and not in the selling business.
Bruno, I'd raise it some, but not to the point you're gouging anyone. I think a lot of us aren't charging enough to begin with (some of our markets don't leave room for it) try to get it closer to where you need to be. Maybe you can pay the good help that makes you money a bit more then.
Quote from: Magicman on August 14, 2020, 06:16:21 PM
So are your lumber prices still the same?
Yes, I don't plan to raise them. I get $1.00 a bf for pine now which seems high to me. It's the same price green or dry.
Boys and Girls, now it's the time to raise the prices and earn some extra cash, so when the low comes back you have some money aside.
It's simple economics:
low demand= high offer= low price
high demand= low offer =high price
For 1x12 w. pine low grade, 8 to12' the new price is $1.20, air dried. I have never sold softwood boards green, bad business in my opinion.
1st day off in 2 weeks.
I have sawn 2 mobile jobs for contractors building houses.They had to clear the lots, had pine logs, I went and sawed 1500-2000 bd ft of 1x6 and 1x8 for forming lumber. Thier thoughts are they have to dispose of the logs, so saw forming lumber and burn that after. I also sawed some nice oak on 1 job so he got a bonus. I have 3 more calls from other builders in the area also.
I am a manager at a manufactured modular home retail center and Friday we got the largest increase I have ever seen in my 20 years. for a mid size 28x52 modular home the pricing went up as of friday by about 15,000 dollars! I also got 2 other increases the last 4 weeks that were about 2,500 each... they said they won't even hold price when we order homes due to the lumber situation when we actual purchase the home. they're backlog is usually 8-10 weeks.. as of today we are having to wait until mid february!
my company ordered 20 6x6's from me just to cut up for crane cribbing last week.
I talked with a guy today that has a stand of pine mostly 20" dbh. He said he has a buyer for dimension lumber and I have a sawmill.
We don't have much pine here and I only get to saw it every few years. My one big job was about 9 years ago when I sawed 7,000 board foot. It sawed fast and my daily total was a lot more than I ever get in hardwoods. Can't wait to make some more pine dust.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10125/yellow_pine_custom_sawing.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1598835490)
Quote from: Durf700 on August 30, 2020, 08:42:01 PM
I am a manager at a manufactured modular home retail center and Friday we got the largest increase I have ever seen in my 20 years. for a mid size 28x52 modular home the pricing went up as of friday by about 15,000 dollars! I also got 2 other increases the last 4 weeks that were about 2,500 each... they said they won't even hold price when we order homes due to the lumber situation when we actual purchase the home. they're backlog is usually 8-10 weeks.. as of today we are having to wait until mid february!
my company ordered 20 6x6's from me just to cut up for crane cribbing last week.
Keep an eye and check back in, I'm curious if this will crash sales or if folks will just absorb it, that's huge.
Nice looking pine Larry. Tim
2x4x8 at HD was 5.79 yesterday. Up about 10% from beginning of the week. Had plenty of pressure treated and sheet stuff but high as a cat's back!
Hurricane Laura will keep the pressure on prices and were only halfway through the season so who knows.
I've been watching 2x6 T&G SYP stall boards and I've seen two increases in two weeks.
Quote from: Don P on August 30, 2020, 09:10:46 PM
Quote from: Durf700 on August 30, 2020, 08:42:01 PM
I am a manager at a manufactured modular home retail center and Friday we got the largest increase I have ever seen in my 20 years. for a mid size 28x52 modular home the pricing went up as of friday by about 15,000 dollars! I also got 2 other increases the last 4 weeks that were about 2,500 each... they said they won't even hold price when we order homes due to the lumber situation when we actual purchase the home. they're backlog is usually 8-10 weeks.. as of today we are having to wait until mid february!
my company ordered 20 6x6's from me just to cut up for crane cribbing last week.
Keep an eye and check back in, I'm curious if this will crash sales or if folks will just absorb it, that's huge.
I ordered a modular home in January with a 2 year price garauntee. 8)
I am currently in the designing phase. It should be going to the engineer tomorrow. hopefully I will have the engineering done by late September .There will be a delay in getting the home, it looks like a January delivery.
I have a small deck replacement to do that I bid a month ago. called my supplier and he said he would have to rebid it and the estimate would only be good for 24 hours! got the estimate and my material has gone up 75%!
He has no idea why. Does anyone have a clue?
Supply vs demand
Mills mistakenly curtailed in March because of covid-19. Now, struggling to get caught back up.
Quote from: CCCLLC on September 03, 2020, 04:54:25 PM
Mills mistakenly curtailed in March because of covid-19. Now, struggling to get caught back up.
Mistakenly? I gues your right. I shut down in March when everyone canceled on me. Everything else was shut down. Then I realised I was considered essiential, logging and forestry. I have been going strong since.
It is almost a scam. The landowners here are being paid virtually nothing, the highway is non-stop full of log trucks hauling logs to the sawmill, and the sawmills are running wide open. The lumber prices have more than doubled so somebody somewhere is making $$$.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/20011/IMG_8261.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1599174970)
Here is ten 2X8" X 16' and two 2X8" X 12' treated SYP that cost $403 yesterday.
That sure doesn't look like a $400 stack of lumber MM. Lets hope things go back to normal pretty soon.
Quote from: Magicman on September 03, 2020, 07:19:29 PM
It is almost a scam. The landowners here are being paid virtually nothing, the highway is non-stop full of log trucks hauling logs to the sawmill, and the sawmills are running wide open. The lumber prices have more than doubled so somebody somewhere is making $$$.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/20011/IMG_8261.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1599174970)
Here is ten 2X8" X 16' and two 2X8" X 12' treated SYP that cost $403 yesterday.
The way that I figure board feet, that is 1.87/bf.
A big part of the problem with what landowners are seeing is that there is simply too much logging capacity. Too many crews and the equipment they are running produces logs too fast. Most mills are at maximum capacity the day they open, can't increase output without a major change, however a logging crew can add an additional buncher, two skidders, and double production with three new employees. Of course with the cost of equipment they have to run that fast, but that is a different subject.
Now where is the new wood going to go? The mills are at capacity, the yard is full, and a new truck shows up in the yard loaded, supply and demand, you lower the price you will pay for those logs, too much supply. Where else are they going to take them? No new mills are being built so the logger takes the lower price because he has to pay for that fast, new, buncher, and the fuel, the cut tire, the workers comp, liability insurance, etc. So next week he cuts more logs to generate additional cash to overcome last weeks price drop and even more truck show up at the mill who has all the wood they need and will again drop the log price.
It's been a race to the bottom for a while now, only recently has it become a spectator sport.
That is what low interest rates and easy lending standards does to people, lands them in a "self employed" rat race to make the payment on the shiny new carrot.
The identical situation occured in trucking. 2018s boom rates brought too many 100% financed operators into the game and then the covid bust drove the rates down to below break even. I wasnt gonna stay on the road for a week at a time doing 14 hr days for $500 gross.
High interest rates and tight lending standards is a necessity to keep the dreamers at their day jobs so they dont mess up economies.
A young widow up the road inherited 1600 acres, husband was a friend of mine. Shes clearcutting around 500 of it and most is pulp. Shes getting a 5% share on pulp checks, logger gets 95. I bet the tax on the sale consumes her cut. Giving it away.
Thats a messed up economy when a 50 yr crop is being hauled off for free.
Lumber commodity prices have been falling as fast as they went up, at least in the futures mkt. They have been in lock limit down for the past week. Prices have slipped about 30% from their highs.