Commodity lumber

[moodnacreek]

For 1x12 w. pine low grade, 8 to12' the new price is $1.20, air dried. I have never sold softwood boards green, bad  business in my opinion.

[Stephen1]

1st day off in 2 weeks.
I have sawn 2 mobile jobs for contractors building houses.They had to clear the lots, had pine logs, I went and sawed 1500-2000 bd ft of 1x6 and 1x8 for forming lumber. Thier thoughts are they have to dispose of the logs, so saw forming lumber and burn that after. I also sawed some nice oak on 1 job so he got a bonus.  I have 3 more calls from other builders in the area also.

[Durf700]

I am a manager at a manufactured modular home retail center and Friday we got the largest increase I have ever seen in my 20 years.  for a mid size 28x52 modular home the pricing went up as of friday by about 15,000 dollars!  I also got 2 other increases the last 4 weeks that were about 2,500 each...  they said they won't even hold price when we order homes due to the lumber situation when we actual purchase the home.  they're backlog is usually 8-10 weeks..  as of today we are having to wait until mid february! 

my company ordered 20 6x6's from me just to cut up for crane cribbing last week.

[Larry]

I talked with a guy today that has a stand of pine mostly 20" dbh.  He said he has a buyer for dimension lumber and I have a sawmill.

We don't have much pine here and I only get to saw it every few years.  My one big job was about 9 years ago when I sawed 7,000 board foot.  It sawed fast and my daily total was a lot more than I ever get in hardwoods.  Can't wait to make some more pine dust.

[Don P]

I am a manager at a manufactured modular home retail center and Friday we got the largest increase I have ever seen in my 20 years.  for a mid size 28x52 modular home the pricing went up as of friday by about 15,000 dollars!  I also got 2 other increases the last 4 weeks that were about 2,500 each...  they said they won't even hold price when we order homes due to the lumber situation when we actual purchase the home.  they're backlog is usually 8-10 weeks..  as of today we are having to wait until mid february!  

my company ordered 20 6x6's from me just to cut up for crane cribbing last week.

Keep an eye and check back in, I'm curious if this will crash sales or if folks will just absorb it, that's huge.

[Banjo picker]

Nice looking pine Larry.  Tim

[TroyC]

2x4x8 at HD was 5.79 yesterday. Up about 10% from beginning of the week. Had plenty of pressure treated and sheet stuff but high as a cat's back!

[Larry]

Hurricane Laura will keep the pressure on prices and were only halfway through the season so who knows.

[Brad_bb]

I've been watching 2x6 T&G SYP stall boards and I've seen two increases in two weeks.

[Stephen1]

I am a manager at a manufactured modular home retail center and Friday we got the largest increase I have ever seen in my 20 years.  for a mid size 28x52 modular home the pricing went up as of friday by about 15,000 dollars!  I also got 2 other increases the last 4 weeks that were about 2,500 each...  they said they won't even hold price when we order homes due to the lumber situation when we actual purchase the home.  they're backlog is usually 8-10 weeks..  as of today we are having to wait until mid february!  

my company ordered 20 6x6's from me just to cut up for crane cribbing last week.

Keep an eye and check back in, I'm curious if this will crash sales or if folks will just absorb it, that's huge.

I ordered a modular home in January with a 2 year price garauntee.  8)
I am currently in the designing phase. It should be going to the engineer tomorrow. hopefully I will have the engineering done by late September .There will be a delay in getting the home, it looks like a January delivery. 

[florida]

I have a small deck replacement to do that I bid a month ago. called my supplier and he said he would have to rebid it and the estimate would only be good for 24 hours! got the estimate and my material has gone up 75%!
He has no idea why. Does anyone have a clue?

[RichTired]

Supply vs demand

[CCCLLC]

Mills mistakenly curtailed in March because of covid-19. Now, struggling to get caught back up. 

[Stephen1]

Mills mistakenly curtailed in March because of covid-19. Now, struggling to get caught back up.

Mistakenly? I gues your right. I shut down in March when everyone canceled on me.   Everything else was shut down. Then I realised I was considered essiential, logging and forestry. I have been going strong since. 

[Magicman]

It is almost a scam.  The landowners here are being paid virtually nothing, the highway is non-stop full of log trucks hauling logs to the sawmill, and the sawmills are running wide open.  The lumber prices have more than doubled so somebody somewhere is making $$$.


 
Here is ten 2X8" X 16' and two 2X8" X 12' treated SYP that cost $403 yesterday.

[btulloh]

That sure doesn't look like a $400 stack of lumber MM. Lets hope things go back to normal pretty soon. 

[WDH]

It is almost a scam.  The landowners here are being paid virtually nothing, the highway is non-stop full of log trucks hauling logs to the sawmill, and the sawmills are running wide open.  The lumber prices have more than doubled so somebody somewhere is making $$$.


 
Here is ten 2X8" X 16' and two 2X8" X 12' treated SYP that cost $403 yesterday.

The way that I figure board feet, that is 1.87/bf. 

[Southside]

A big part of the problem with what landowners are seeing is that there is simply too much logging capacity.  Too many crews and the equipment they are running produces logs too fast. Most mills are at maximum capacity the day they open, can't increase output without a major change, however a logging crew can add an additional buncher, two skidders, and double production with three new employees. Of course with the cost of equipment they have to run that fast, but that is a different subject.

Now where is the new wood going to go? The mills are at capacity, the yard is full, and a new truck shows up in the yard loaded, supply and demand, you lower the price you will pay for those logs, too much supply. Where else are they going to take them? No new mills are being built so the logger takes the lower price because he has to pay for that fast, new, buncher, and the fuel, the cut tire, the workers comp, liability insurance, etc. So next week he cuts more logs to generate additional cash to overcome last weeks price drop and even more truck show up at the mill who has all the wood they need and will again drop the log price. 

It's been a race to the bottom for a while now, only recently has it become a spectator sport.  

[mike_belben]

That is what low interest rates and easy lending standards does to people, lands them in a "self employed" rat race to make the payment on the shiny new carrot.  

The identical situation occured in trucking.  2018s boom rates brought too many 100% financed operators into the game and then the covid bust drove the rates down to below break even.  I wasnt gonna stay on the road for a week at a time doing 14 hr days for $500 gross. 

High interest rates and tight lending standards is a necessity to keep the dreamers at their day jobs so they dont mess up economies. 


A young widow up the road inherited 1600 acres, husband was a friend of mine.  Shes clearcutting around 500 of it and most is pulp.  Shes getting a 5% share on pulp checks, logger gets 95.  I bet the tax on the sale consumes her cut.  Giving it away.

Thats a messed up economy when a 50 yr crop is being hauled off for free.

[Ron Wenrich]

Lumber commodity prices have been falling as fast as they went up, at least in the futures mkt.  They have been in lock limit down for the past week.  Prices have slipped about 30% from their highs.