Just the Facts, the Crown virus.

[caveman]

Howard, I hope all of you and yours come through COVID favorably. I have students and coworkers in and out of quarantine. One of my classes is made up completely of "e-learners" and I am likely the most technologically challenged human on this rock. We have been asked as teachers to practice "grace and mercy" when it comes to grades. We've been growing strawberries, squash, working on shop projects, propagating plants and generally bouncing from one topic to another. 

[firefighter ontheside]

You guys talking about watching the grands hits home with my fire department.  ONe of our guys tested positive 5 days ago.  He got tested because his grandparents babysit his kids and they both tested positive.  I don't know where the virus started from.  Hard to say who had it first.  His wife is a nurse and also tested positive.  Everyone he works with had to quarantine a minimum of 5 days and then get tested before they could come back to work.  Its been hard on the rest of us who had to pick up all the OT.  Good news is that half the guys have tested neg and are coming back to work.  The rest should know soon.  None have had symptoms.  I'll be happy to spend some significant time at home soon.  I'm supposed to go back for 72 hours starting tomorrow morn.  If 1 guy comes back to work I will only work my normal 48 hours.  

[firefighter ontheside]

Update....all but one of our guys on quarantine has tested negate.  Still waiting for other guy.  I think this means that the guy who tested positive was not very contagious.  He was mostly symptom free.  Just happy the guys arent sick.

[Bandmill Bandit]

I haven't posted in this thread for awhile but things here in Alberta have taken a rather nasty turn. As of yesterday we had 13 active cases with 3 in hospital in town and roughly the same cases in the county from low single digits a week or so ago and none in hospital.

Did read some encouraging info from one of the Medical research teams in England regarding "T cells" and the human immune system. Not a lot is know re these cells and their influence in our immune systems yet but the early data shows positive results. Doc may be able to shed more light on this topic. Understanding the "T cell" and it's relationship to the vaccine, along with availability/ deployment may well be the ticket out of this mess.    

[firefighter ontheside]

Its amazing how things change and our perspective changes.  6 months ago we were appalled when there were 7 new cases in a day in my county here in Missouri.  Now we are getting sometimes over 200 new cases a day.  When it was at 7 the county was shut down and we couldn't go anywhere.  Now its out of control and people are acting as if there is no pandemic.

[WV Sawmiller]

   Well, schooling was a challenge. A couple of times the teacher evidently never logged on. I had to stay off the internet and FF so they had enough bandwidth. Our local hospital does testing from 8-12 so I guess we will get them there first thing in the morning so they can get tested and be back here before there 0900 classes start. We found today the girls first cousin (On DIL side of the family) has tested positive too. We will have the kids all week at a minimum. 

[DbltreeBelgians]

So last night I was still feeling rough on the breathing and coughing so I took Doc Henderson's advice and went to the ED. They were really nice the moment I walk in. Checked my temp, 96.9 so no fever. They said that not unusual. Wasn't bad enough for an ER room i guess since they put me in an old waiting room, talked to me for a bit and left me sitting in a chair for about 4 hours. Periodically they stopped in, checked my temp and my spO2 level. Gave me a small dose of oral liquid Dexamethasone. That didn't do squat except send into nasty shivers after a half hour. Also a couple Tessalon Perles to try to help with my severe coughing. Jury's still out on that too. They did a chest x-ray at my request since I  was feeling discomfort in the lower left lung. But that may have came from falling on a pipe sticking up out of the ground. Note to self; don't use a concrete block for a step stool.
Anyhow they told me that my X-ray showed what looks like shattered glass opacity. Exactly what my daughter said they are seeing in COVID patients.
I got a prednisone taper script today and doc ordered a z-pac for me and the wife after doing a Tele-med call. She got hers and my daughter said they didn't receive my script at the pharmacy from my doc. 20 minutes later she walks in the door and the phone rings from pharmacy saying my script is ready.     Oh well, is what it is.
We'll see what the next few day bring and hopefully we're all on the rebound.
Thank you to everyone in this great family for checking on me and my family and all the well wishes and advice. You're all truly amazing.
One question I have for doc or anyone else in the know. I got to checking into some that my financial adviser had been talking to me about a few months ago but I forgot about. It's called the "Zelenko Protocol ". 
Let me know if it has any merit. It's a little late for me but I'm curious.
Thanks again everyone. Take it serious and please stay safe.

Brent

[WV Sawmiller]

   I missed the bottom line - did they test and confirm you had Covid or just that you had bruised ribs from your cinderblock step?

[jtmccallum]

I started having mild symptoms Wednesday. I first thought it was from getting a Shingrix vaccination. I got tested on Friday and got a call Monday morning that I was positive for Covid. I seem to have a gift for getting whatever is going around near Thanksgiving and deer season so I didn't really think it was Covid. No loss of taste or smell or fever. Right now I just have that crappy post flu feeling.  Wife doesn't have any symptoms now so hopefully this passes quickly. 

[kantuckid]

Howard, I hope all of you and yours come through COVID favorably. I have students and coworkers in and out of quarantine. One of my classes is made up completely of "e-learners" and I am likely the most technologically challenged human on this rock. We have been asked as teachers to practice "grace and mercy" when it comes to grades. We've been growing strawberries, squash, working on shop projects, propagating plants and generally bouncing from one topic to another.

As retired educators we heard an interesting school grades item on last nights Tucker Carlson show. Grades have plummeted during covid in all age groups and learner characteristics. Greatly, not just a little bit! Many virtual students are not even enrolled in many locations. I wondered if a parent didn't bother when reality said they had no web connection? 
It's a challenge to discuss education during covid and leave the politics out! The story line from our choice of "experts" for covid information has given us huge differences in schools open or closed. FWIW, my wife & I have chosen the real live school option vs. virtual school, from the start of covid issues.
Make your own choices as boards and superintendents and parents have done so far. 
Facts are: FAR! more children have died from suicides than covid infections. 
I really feel for teachers trying to reach all their students right now! Especially the ones they didn't really know prior to becoming a "face on a screen"!!! 
One of my grade school grand daughters has been just placed back on covid home leave again as another student in her classroom has tested positive so the rest go home to quarantine. In her case her Mom, a teacher, and two younger sisters are in the same school different grades, etc. but still in real school. 
Weird time we are in for schools. 
The younger kids doing virtual with absent parents has to be a real concern.  

[doc henderson]

my daughter should graduate from Bethany this spring, my son is taking the year off.  he did not do well online.

[kantuckid]

Like many, I use myself in my learner thoughts. I loved school, got VG grades, etc., until I experienced the droning college profs who put me to sleep in even my ,most favorite subjects at times. But I flourished as an apprentice & as a helo mechanic trainee when I was exposed to technical subjects (not puters in my pre-puter case), shop or classroom !
 In my my mostly tech ed educational career I cannot begin to imagine the damage done to hands on learning once turned into a video session? Distancing would also be challenging at times.  
Same for all those art classes, gold/silver smithing/jewelry, drawing, painting and sculpture, so on that I took from 7th through 12th grade. Hardly subjects best taught on a puter! 
The dental college I visit, which was closed all those months of far less covid infections, is now open during far worse covid saturation! Was like 3-4% back then now over 9-10%!!! but all is back to normal except the masks they always have worn and now an added face shield too along with a basic screening for temp and symptoms questions prior to entry. The "other aspect" that's abnormal is they're still 304 months behind on appointments. I could sure use a few molars right now ;D

[Don P]

These choices are why we are now at over 13 million cases. India which is apparently behaving just about as badly is over 9 million. We have had more cases in November than most countries have had since the virus started.

On education I'm reminded of my wifes mother and father. They were teenagers when Hitler invaded Holland in 1940. Young men were rounded up or went into hiding. For the next 5 years he hid by day and fought in the resistance by night. Their teachers smuggled them lessons to study while hiding out, one place was in a hidden "room" behind a built in china cupboard in his future wife's house. The Nazis did search the house when he and his brother were in there hiding. At the end of the war he took all the exams in one fell swoop and became a mechanical engineer. Five years... We can do this but it takes the dedication from all those involved to make it happen. My wife has taught several online afterschool programs with 20-30 students signed up, 2-4 have checked in, most disappointing. The results of some nationwide testing have just come out and it isn't as bad as we might think, reading is on par, math is a little behind but it obviously didn't check the ones that fell through the cracks.

I did hear an answer to my question of whether the vaccine keeps a person from spreading. The question was asked in an interview. They haven't checked that in the testing so that is an unknown at this point. The vaccine protects you but that doesn't mean at this point that you cannot spread it to the unvaccinated. We will know that in time.

It's getting into our group here, I hope everyone heals up soon. The rest of us need to take this seriously, help is on the way we just need to keep ourselves and those around us safe.

[Claybraker]

I was listening to a pair of veteran elementary teachers Saturday. 2nd and 3rd grade, both with over 20 years, talking about how they had to spend so much time on basic manners when school started back. I mentioned Dr Fauci expressed second thoughts around June Or July about the wisdom of closing K-8. They both nodded in agreement.

Hopefully we'll be better prepared for the next pandemic.

[Ianab]

I did hear an answer to my question of whether the vaccine keeps a person from spreading. The question was asked in an interview. They haven't checked that in the testing so that is an unknown at this point. The vaccine protects you but that doesn't mean at this point that you cannot spread it to the unvaccinated. We will know that in time.

I suspect that being vaccinated would make you very unlikely to spread the virus. When someone catches the virus initially there are very few virus particles in their system. So they don't test positive, don't have symptoms, and wont be shedding "many" virus particles. It's after 3 or 4 days as the number of virus particles multiply that you start spreading larger numbers, and people become "infectious" a day or 2 before the virus starts causing damage / symptoms. Once the immune system gets ahead of the virus, it dies out and by 14 days later you shouldn't be infectious. Even if you still have symptoms, those are due to damage caused by the infection lingering after the virus has gone. 

However it seems that the vaccine isn't 100% effective, and someone could still get a mild case of the virus (no real symptoms), and therefore be somewhat infectious for a while. 

But if 90% of the folks around you are immune, then you are unlikely to be exposed in the first place. And if by some chance you are, 90% of the folks around you are immune, so you are unlikely to pass it on. The R0 (how quickly the virus spreads in "normal" conditions) is thought to be about 2.2. That means that for every case, on average it spreads to 2.2 more people. So you can see how the numbers would build up exponentially over time. 1 case -> 2 cases -> 5  -> cases -> 12 cases -> 26 cases -> 58 cases -> 128 cases.

Now if you can get the R number down to below 1.0, then on average each case infects less than one new victim. Say you can put enough measures in place to get the R= 0.5. Now it goes 128 -> 64 -> 32 -> 16 -> 8.   If you can get even 80% of the population immune (90% have had a 90% effective shot), then your R number is more like 0.02 or something. As you get low enough then tracing and isolating individual cases and contacts becomes possible, and you can get to the stage where every case is known and isolated, and the virus is eliminated. When you have 128 new cases in a town, and each of those have 10 close contacts, the contact tracing just breaks down. 

That low case numbers is basically the case here in NZ and Australia. The virus can still come in from overseas (hence the quarantine for new arrivals), and it has slipped through the quarantine several times. Luckily it's mostly been caught before the 8 cases stage, where testing / contact tracing / isolating can suppress the spread without more drastic measures. 

The initial lock down here was strict, but relatively short, because with no non-essential travel or businesses, the infection rate dropped just like the epidemic theory said it should. OK it went up for the first week, but that was folks exposed before the lockdown. Once things shut down, it dropped off as fast as it had gone up. Then restrictions were eased in stages as the last few cases were isolated, and ~28 days after the last community case, only border restrictions remain. 

This is a summary of a study done in China's Hunan Province during their initial outbreak. (Hunan is next door to Hubei where the virus started, so they got a significant number of cases, but not so many that it overwhelmed the ability to trace the infection. 

very detailed information on viral cases: 1,178 infected individuals, another 15,648 people they came in contact with, and a total of nearly 20,000 potential exposure events.

What that means is they aren't now simply guessing about how the virus spreads. What they found was that simply being able to contact trace and isolate victims reduced the R to 1.01. Not enough to wipe out the virus, but it slowed the spread. But from that point other measures like banning mass gatherings, closing bars , wearing masks, extra hand sanitiser etc can easily get the R number well below one. 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/what-we-can-learn-from-contact-tracing-an-entire-province/

And before anyone says "but you can't believe the Chinese", the scientific paper was published by a group of scientists, 2 American, 2 Italian and several Chinese, and has been peer reviewed. It's actual science, and backs up what has happened in this part of the world. How China can enforce the testing and lock-down is politics, a whole other can of worms, and not the subject here. 

[Ianab]

I was listening to a pair of veteran elementary teachers Saturday. 2nd and 3rd grade, both with over 20 years, talking about how they had to spend so much time on basic manners when school started back. I mentioned Dr Fauci expressed second thoughts around June Or July about the wisdom of closing K-8. They both nodded in agreement.

Hopefully we'll be better prepared for the next pandemic.

Lil is a Kindy teacher and we have 2 daughters at school,Year 3 and Year 9, which is fist year college here. 
Lil was of course home during the lock down, so was able to be substitute teacher for them. Basically making sure they put in "some" time each day for their online work. The Kindy was basically closed as it's just not practical to teach 3 year olds via Zoom.  :D 
The girls had online assignments, things they could print out and work on, and were send some physical workbooks for some subjects. Teachers were then available in Zoom, or via email / phone to help out. Teaching the whole class via Zoom didn't really seem to work. Major logistical exercise to try and get every student connected. Some families only had internet via cellphone, some not even that. So all the families were surveyed so the school's laptops and Govt funded wifi hotspots could be loaned to those that needed them. We had spare laptops and fibre internet here, so no issues and didn't get involved in that, apart from helping deliver all the courier packs.
Ms 8's teacher did comment when school returned that it was obvious who had done some home study as they were doing at least as well as before. The ones that hadn't, had actually lost ground and slipped back a level or 2. Ms 8 hadn't slid back, and as she enjoys reading had gone up a step there. Ms 13 handled it well, even if she had to wait for me to get home and help with some maths and science stuff. Luckily I can still remember year 9 maths, even if I'm a bit rusty after that. Anyway she got through the year and is at or above the levels she should be. 
But I have no doubt that having to online school is going to have a negative impact on many, and the longer it goes on, the bigger the gaps.  But I note Tammy saying that 3 of their local school bus drivers have come down sick. May not be a big danger to the kids themselves, but they can certainly carry it, and infect staff, and / or carry it home, which all helps the continuing spread. 

[barbender]

Our kids have all been homeschooled from the beginning, "before it was cool", I like to say.  Our oldest daughter will be done with her Business degree this spring. Our second daughter graduated High School while simultaneously earning a 2 year AA degree this year (first daughter did this as well before going to a state college for her Bachelor's). Our 3 younger kids are still home schooling. The Covid situation has affected them as well, as most all of the extra-curricular activities have been shut down. However, I talk to some of my coworkers who are telling me that their teenage sons are trying to quit school in their senior year, because they just can't stand the online schooling. I don't get it, other than the way they describe the classes sounds what I call "onerous". My kids workloads are pretty light, and they are all doing online curriculums. I think the difference is these are designed as homeschool, online curriculums. The public school curriculums, I'm not sure they know what they're doing. I used to worry if the curriculums were thorough enough when the kids could finish their day in 2 hours- I'm asking myself, "how can that be when they'd need to be gone all day for public school?" But my 2 daughters excelling in college reassured me things were ok. I've been encouraging people that I'm talking to who have kids struggling with public school online options to check out actual homeschool curriculums.

[firefighter ontheside]

Theoretically, you have to get infected before antibodies can rid the body of the virus.  So I guess there could be a short time where you are contagious, but it can't be anything compared to someone who is unvaccinated and spreading virus.  I may have read same or similar story.  They said there is no data on it, but scientists believe it will greatly reduce spread.

[Ianab]

Theoretically, you have to get infected before antibodies can rid the body of the virus.  So I guess there could be a short time where you are contagious, but it can't be anything compared to someone who is unvaccinated and spreading virus.  I may have read same or similar story.  They said there is no data on it, but scientists believe it will greatly reduce spread.

That's my thinking too. There is that time between when you are exposed, and when you become infectious, during which the virus is multiplying in your body faster than your immune system can respond. That's the first 2 or 3 days, you aren't infectious then. 
If you have had the vaccine (and it "took"), then you immune system should kick in sooner, and wipe out the virus on day one or 2, before it multiplies enough to get to the infectious stage. 
Nothing 100% sure yet, but every other vaccine works like this. The vaccine also doesn't HAVE to be 100% effective to work. The mythical "herd immunity" kicks in when a significant enough % of population are immune. Even if there are a few still vulnerable people out there, the virus can't spread enough to reach many of them, and those last few cases probably don't reach the next vulnerable person. 
Without a pool of infected people wandering around, the virus dies out. Like Smallpox has once a working vaccine was used widely enough.

[doc henderson]

our prison is at over 80% having been infected,  new cases dropping.

[kantuckid]

Our kids have all been homeschooled from the beginning, "before it was cool", I like to say.  Our oldest daughter will be done with her Business degree this spring. Our second daughter graduated High School while simultaneously earning a 2 year AA degree this year (first daughter did this as well before going to a state college for her Bachelor's). Our 3 younger kids are still home schooling. The Covid situation has affected them as well, as most all of the extra-curricular activities have been shut down. However, I talk to some of my coworkers who are telling me that their teenage sons are trying to quit school in their senior year, because they just can't stand the online schooling. I don't get it, other than the way they describe the classes sounds what I call "onerous". My kids workloads are pretty light, and they are all doing online curriculums. I think the difference is these are designed as homeschool, online curriculums. The public school curriculums, I'm not sure they know what they're doing. I used to worry if the curriculums were thorough enough when the kids could finish their day in 2 hours- I'm asking myself, "how can that be when they'd need to be gone all day for public school?" But my 2 daughters excelling in college reassured me things were ok. I've been encouraging people that I'm talking to who have kids struggling with public school online options to check out actual homeschool curriculum

Our kids were not homeschooled unless you count the fact that we were involved parents who provided every possible chance at being there for our kids as "schooling". I'm not a particular fan of Homeschool but certainly recognize that it works for some people. I tend to feel it's more of a parental choice than a childs choice. My nearest neighbor, who is a KY state trooper and his wife a public school teacher homeschool there 5 boys, the oldest is now out of (GED-I gave the GED tests to hundreds of homeschoolers, dropouts and a few Mennonites over many years)) high school and training to become an aircraft mechanic, the other 4 still homeschooled. KY state cops have weird variable schedules while his wife teaches FT elementary across the road form mine and theirs mailboxes. Religion is a heavy factor in their choice to homeschoolas it is for the majority of parents in my area who choose it. The worst aspect of homeschooling is the parents who pull the kids but are noit capable or don't choose to do it correctly! Believe me when I say I've seen that one up close and personal here in my educational jobs.
 The neighbors Dad is a best friend and disagrees with the homeschooling as do my wife and I but I see that it's their right to do so and they do it with a passion by including supplementals available in our rural area if your willing to haul your kids to various religious, musical and other educational stuff they have at nearest town (50kRT) at a church operated homeschool combo operation. 
They also bother their grandpa who I talk to near daily by choosing to forego vaccinations and other sorts of different viewpoints besides schooling...
I can truthfully say that our sons chose to like sports a lot along with being superb students as well, all three and would have been very unhappy if we'd have pulled them away from their friends. Did their public experience serve them well? Yes & no! But they all chose high level professions and have excelled in life so far. I feel they'd have weathered covid just as well if younger now as they were adaptable kids. 
Public school, elementary years in particular, are often a three way palate of a last years rehash, then some new material, then yet another boring rehash to end that school year. Homeschooling offers the chance to tailor a kids material and not make them suffer the re-hash crap my son's all complained about. truth be know, life in the real world of work, like public schooingl has those same dull parts we must sometimes endure? 
I can see homeschooling as a potential better choice than covid virtual if it's not well done publicly. 

[Peter Drouin]

My test came back negative. 

[DbltreeBelgians]

  I missed the bottom line - did they test and confirm you had Covid or just that you had bruised ribs from your cinderblock step?

I'm sorry so late Howard but I haven't felt up to logging in lately. Pretty much drives me to me knees when I start coughing. Can't get my air, but I think I'm getting a little better. 
So the answer to your question is yes it came back positive along with my wife and dad. Dad is doing great. Wife seems to be rounding the corner.
Hopefully the prednisone taper pac will kick in and knock the inflammation back and get me back to a somewhat normal life. 
Snow is on the ground and the deer are running past the house and I'm bummin that I'm not out hunting. I have a brand new Ruger Camo Go Wild 450 BushMaster waiting on my finger. It's never been shot 

Brent

[firefighter ontheside]

our prison is at over 80% having been infected,  new cases dropping.

Well, I guess we know herd immunity is good at 80%.  Sadly, prison is a good place to test that theory.  I imagine that as close as those folks are in a prison, on the outside something less than 80% will work.  
I'm gonna get another test tomorrow.  I have some troubling new symptoms that makes me think I was negative last week, but maybe now positive due to one of our firefighters who was pos when we made shift change last week.  I may be spending a few nights in the camper until I get results.  A positive test will win me a lot of nights in the camper.
Brent that's great news about your dad and wife.  Hopefully you have turned the corner and are on your way to feeling better.

[firefighter ontheside]

@doc henderson looks like Missouri is slated to get about 50,000 doses of Pfizer vaccine at first and Kansas only less than 25,000 based on population of the states.  I guess we have to start somewhere and that will be a good start.