Lumber prices too high

[Al_Smith]

It's just history repeating itself like it always does .Following a down turn in the economy companies go out of business .Then coming out of such an event there will be shortages which give rise to price increases .Add to that curtailed home construction plus natural disasters like California on fire and the southern and eastern coast lines being blown away from storms and this is the results .
Then it's been a popular thing in the last few decades for people to get involved with things like  IT etc. and now there is a shortage of trade persons .The infrastructure has been falling apart for decades and now needs fixed before it gets much worse . It all adds up .Eventually somebody has to pay the piper if they want to dance to the music .

[nativewolf]

well said Al

[Al_Smith]

People don't really think about things with a global economy in mind .Usually just what locally affects them .Take for example getting a big powered barge stuck sideways in the Suez canal .It stopped world trade .Every thing ground to a stop .Just like a monkey wrench in the gears .
Because of methods of doing business following a Japanese style such as "just in time " inventory and "single source" suppliers and one little hiccup can be stop the whole works .
Like it or not a majority of world trade, which is what is, everybody is dependent on everybody else .That grounded large boat stuck in the canal stopped the production of automobiles because of the electronics it carried or stopped other shipments from arriving in  a timely manner to the end user .
Then the whole thing is just supply and demand from the price of lumber extended to automobiles or in fact chainsaws which some are crying the blues over .

[mike_belben]

A 6 day halt of goods in and out of the mediterranean doesnt cause a 6 month shortage of every product in the world.  Just like one refinery going offline in a storm for 2 days doesnt radically alter the global supply and demand dynamics of fuel for the planet.  Prior to global connectivity and 24hr news bombardment most of the world wouldnt ever know of these events.  



Global connectivity causes a hyper awareness that allows price setters to set prices higher every time an event occurs that could be believed to cause shortage.  Nothing generates knee jerk, impulsive sales like the knowlege of a future price hike so the social buzz gets whipped up to manipulate prices at every opportunity.


I do agree with the jist of what your saying AL and have absolutely lived the results of bean counters forcing in japanese production models to a manufacturing plant.  There are many true and genuine cluster-dangs going on, but there are many profitable false ones too.  Lying for a buck is as old as time. Its not a 'conspiracy theory' that the entire world conspires to make a profit any way they can and our nation is dotted with minimum security prisons to punish the legions of slicksters who get caught.


No matter what manufacturing business i am in today, i can have the material parked out back, the same workers at their stations making the same money but upfront at the counter i can have salesman with a sob story about labor up, material up, retail price had to go up. The customer will believe it.  If my salesmans taps his crystal ball and says oh price hike coming in 2 weeks, poof, the order gets placed.   Nobody investigating gougers and no one is scared of divine punishment anymore so what disincentive is there?  None.  Little white lies are helping pay for a lot of $90k pickups and half million plus houses.


Youtube will reveal penty of videos of big box lumber piled outback during the great lumber shortage hoax of 2020. Why would other industries not jump on board? Because theyre too honest?  Im not saying backorders are fake. I believe much of that is real because ifnyou had it right now youd surely sell it.. Im saying completely normal stuff on the shelf for 2 or 3x the normal cost because shortage.  

Theyre selling at higher rates because the demand curve is up thus the price can rise. But its not popular to tell the world 'we raised the price above your means because there are other people with more money than you.'  Thats snooty and will be punished.  Home depot isnt supposed to have a maserati attitude but its happy to price for maserati customers right now until those run out.  Then it can step down to service chevy and toyota owners again.  But not if it tells the truth and offends them all over to lowes.  


The mennonites are the only retailers that didnt gouge their sticker price around me and i was told nothing was unavailable. So why the mismatch?


As soon as shoppers stop coming through the door, the OVERSTOCK sales will begin, nationwide.  It used to be folks could distinguish between needs and wants, waiting for the price to drop on wants.  But bucketlust, yolo culture and cheap credit have killed off self control and common sense. 

[Nebraska]

Saw a "flash sale" Craigslist  add yesterday on lifts of 2x6x8,   8.00$
a piece for 120 in the lift. Guess the 2x6 price will be much lower soon. This wasn't a box store but a more local sized place  must be trying to dump inventory or someone had a deal....

[SwampDonkey]

Mike, the Mennonite hardware store here, 5 miles away isn't selling lumber any cheaper. They will get all they can get like anyone else. A can of Rustoleum paint was over $60 this spring, the brush $30 at their store. They run a chain store, and pricing is determined up in Ontario, just like it is for Walmart Canada.

[mike_belben]

Maybe canadian mennonites arent the same as tennessean ones. I dont know what to tell you. Its obvious you dont like them and (edit: i wouldnt either if thats what theyre really about.) im having a hard time believing you about a $60 can.  Did you mean to type case?  Whats a can cost at the big box?

[SwampDonkey]

$2 bucks cheaper at homedepot.ca , gallon cans. Tremclad is the same as Rustoleum. I've always bought Tremclad, but got Rustoleum. Some of Rustoleum's products are $100 a can, depends on what your getting.

You can always find good and bad in any bunch, that is why when I get fed the goody goody stories I'm the man to give the other ones to. :D When I hear "awfully hard workers", I pipe up with 'compared to who'? Come work with a brush saw 40 hours a week, that'll give me a comparison. :D 

[HemlockKing]

$2 bucks cheaper at homedepot.ca , gallon cans. Tremclad is the same as Rustoleum. I've always bought Tremclad, but got Rustoleum. Some of Rustoleum's products are $100 a can, depends on what your getting.

Rust oleum is the cheap stuff too. I use por 15 like 40$ a litre iirc

[Don P]

I smile and bite my tongue when someone smugly says "Amish built", as in yup, that explains it.

[stavebuyer]

Amish here do impeccable work at affordable prices. I had an Amish partner in my first sawmill venture. If there exists a finer example of what a man should strive to be; I have yet to meet him.

[hacknchop]

I work closely with the menonite community here and all i will say is other than horses and black clothing they aren't any different on a whole than the general population some are worthy examples of hard working men ,some are better business heads than others some in my area have raised their prices just because they can, others are charging the same as before the pandemic. I guess what im trying to say is get to know a man before you decide whether you like them or not,would you want people to judge your whole community based solely on your disposition ????

[mike_belben]

Okay $60/gal.  Here im thinking rattle can.  Those are about $5 usd or so.  

Phew. 

[SwampDonkey]

Those spray cans are $10 here, sold by weight, not volume. Any way to skin a cat. :D There's no litre in it, even the 'litre' can is not a full litre and over $20 bucks. And the last couple of years, maybe as much as 5, the gallons are short gallons, not 4 litres and not a full 4.54 litre gallon on the Queens scale. Drop volume, raise prices, that is always the game. :D Around here if you buy them little 1 litre cans, your going to have $90 a gallon tied up in the deal. I always get as large a container as I can get, because I can use it all on something. I've bought interior paint by the 5 gallon bucket, the primer. And that is Benj. Moore, so your already into pricey stuff to begin with. :D :D

[SwampDonkey]

The downward spiral continued this week, down to US$400 and OSB down to $43, a $10 drop this week. Nobody building around here, just a lot of old relics being sold. One of those in town looks like the walls are about to explode outward. A real prize winner. I saw what I took to be new owners looking things over the other day. I don't think they knew what they bought. ;D

[nativewolf]

A 6 day halt of goods in and out of the mediterranean doesnt cause a 6 month shortage of every product in the world.  Just like one refinery going offline in a storm for 2 days doesnt radically alter the global supply and demand dynamics of fuel for the planet.  Prior to global connectivity and 24hr news bombardment most of the world wouldnt ever know of these events.  



Global connectivity causes a hyper awareness that allows price setters to set prices higher every time an event occurs that could be believed to cause shortage.  Nothing generates knee jerk, impulsive sales like the knowlege of a future price hike so the social buzz gets whipped up to manipulate prices at every opportunity.


I do agree with the jist of what your saying AL and have absolutely lived the results of bean counters forcing in japanese production models to a manufacturing plant.  There are many true and genuine cluster-dangs going on, but there are many profitable false ones too.  Lying for a buck is as old as time. Its not a 'conspiracy theory' that the entire world conspires to make a profit any way they can and our nation is dotted with minimum security prisons to punish the legions of slicksters who get caught.


No matter what manufacturing business i am in today, i can have the material parked out back, the same workers at their stations making the same money but upfront at the counter i can have salesman with a sob story about labor up, material up, retail price had to go up. The customer will believe it.  If my salesmans taps his crystal ball and says oh price hike coming in 2 weeks, poof, the order gets placed.   Nobody investigating gougers and no one is scared of divine punishment anymore so what disincentive is there?  None.  Little white lies are helping pay for a lot of $90k pickups and half million plus houses.


Youtube will reveal penty of videos of big box lumber piled outback during the great lumber shortage hoax of 2020. Why would other industries not jump on board? Because theyre too honest?  Im not saying backorders are fake. I believe much of that is real because ifnyou had it right now youd surely sell it.. Im saying completely normal stuff on the shelf for 2 or 3x the normal cost because shortage.  

Theyre selling at higher rates because the demand curve is up thus the price can rise. But its not popular to tell the world 'we raised the price above your means because there are other people with more money than you.'  Thats snooty and will be punished.  Home depot isnt supposed to have a maserati attitude but its happy to price for maserati customers right now until those run out.  Then it can step down to service chevy and toyota owners again.  But not if it tells the truth and offends them all over to lowes.  


The mennonites are the only retailers that didnt gouge their sticker price around me and i was told nothing was unavailable. So why the mismatch?


As soon as shoppers stop coming through the door, the OVERSTOCK sales will begin, nationwide.  It used to be folks could distinguish between needs and wants, waiting for the price to drop on wants.  But bucketlust, yolo culture and cheap credit have killed off self control and common sense.

For the products on that ship it was months and months of wait as Egypt wouldn't let the ship go without paying a honking huge fine.  Sort of funny edge case and yes, it alone didn't slow world trade.  But it is amazing how much stuff gets shoved onto 1 supermax sized ship.

[nativewolf]

The downward spiral continued this week, down to US$400 and OSB down to $43, a $10 drop this week. Nobody building around here, just a lot of old relics being sold. One of those in town looks like the walls are about to explode outward. A real prize winner. I saw what I took to be new owners looking things over the other day. I don't think they knew what they bought. ;D

will stimulate the local economy hopefully, lots of rehab.  

[Nebraska]

Our box store had 2x4 studs $5.12, sheet goods, 1/2 cdx  43.00$.

[Nebraska]

Oh yeah -11%

[mike_belben]

Well, i sympathize with the build high, foreclose low crowds to come.  

[Andries]

Headline up here claims that lumber prices have spiked due to the massive fires in NW USA and Canada.
'Market Volitility' in action?

[SwampDonkey]

Only by $60 in reports I see. It was down $100 for the week, thus -$40 net loss. ;)
Anything for headline to sell news. :D

The vast area of Ontario spruce-fir is majority pulpwood material since no one waits 80-100 years anymore for a spruce log. When we cut the town lot here in New Brunswick, the saw mills couldn't even handle the but logs of the red spruce, until 8 feet up. The mill had to haul them to Maine to their veneer mill, they would not buy them as veneer from here. That lot had never been clearcut, was a town watershed. All the towns now have wells and storage towers.

[sawguy21]

It has been strange. Even with the price of lumber the local building supply has been going steady along with the ready mix plant, construction and renovation has only slowed recently because of the extreme heat. Logging is shut down for the time being but mill yards are full. The biggest problem is finding qualified and motivated tradesmen.

[Andries]

It's the same economic / business scenario in NW Ontario.
However, today we got a stop work order from MNRF Operations that, because of the extreme fire hazard, all road work, brush clearing, any industrial projects were told to stand down.
In 50 years of playing in this neck of the woods, thats a first to my knowledge.
.
In the meantime, a stud mill in Kenora remains shutdown for the last two or three years.
Strange times for sure!

[mike_belben]

I suspect the times are destined to get stranger.