Lumber prices too high

[SwampDonkey]

Just keep inviting more friends over to live and pay rent with you. :D

Why would Russia default? I will bet Europe will freeze to death first. When you block someone's ability to pay, I would assume you don't want to be paid.

[Claybraker]

Down here you have to hold a property for a year to qualify for capital gains, live in it for 2 years you get a real sweet break. $250k single, $500k filing jointly. At least the FED isn't going to keep rates low for too long like they did after the dot com bubble burst.

[Old Greenhorn]

So the only thing keeping people from leaving city for affordable housing is ....they make more money in the city and most people like cities?  So the market is working, good.  Keep them in the cities.  Wish it was working a bit better.
..........

Well, that used to be the case. Folks would work and live in the city for the big bucks, then buy or rent places in the country to spend some of that cash on weekends and all was pretty good. Then COVID hit and with the internet presence available, many of these folks left the city and bought whatever they could find at some crazy money and worked remotely. Many dumped their city residences which gave them even more working cash. 
 This trend still continues and the result is anyone who was born and raised here cannot afford to buy a modest house to raise a family of their own. Those places all got bought for crazy money and built up into fancy places or rented out as B&B's. Bare land prices are nuts. 
 The place just 1/4 mile down the road from me sold for $375k a year before COVID hit. In the middle of COVID, that house sold again for $675k (less than 2 years later). Many houses sell for more than asking price within 48 hours. That's not 'normal'.

[SwampDonkey]

During the pandemic, most ingress into my area were retired folks buying old farm houses for double the money. Well double the money is double of $45,000-55,000. I can name off four within 4 miles. One fellow is replacing the old structure he bought last December and down sizing this summer. He's the only one of those 4 with family here. In fact he used to live across the road. I'd say he has moved 4 times in 20 years. But there was one house here that was $189,000 3 years ago, sold last year for $320,000, a local family. That got resold because it was part of a farm sale, so they got $20,000 profit in the flip (no improvements) before realtor 5%, taxes, and lawyer fee to transfer. But you could build it for $240,000. ;)

[mudfarmer]

Rough cut 1" boards working out to about half the price of OSB for builders here locally and 1/4 the price of plywood is what they are saying

[Resonator]

Around here in new home construction everything is sheeted with plywood. And more often than not it has a built in barrier film, and they tape all the joints to make an "envelope".

[quilbilly]

Full time house flippers here have to pay taxes, no different than fixing up machinery and selling for a profit. I believe you are allowed to flip one house per year if it is not your main job. You can live in and sell your house tax free if lived in for that one year minimum. 

Also people should move more. Too many people aren't willing to move to a place they can get a job and afford. They'd rather just work part time and complain about outsiders raising housing prices. Plenty of jobs out there and affordable houses if one is willing to move. 

[stavebuyer]

Softwood Lumber futures closed at $950/mbf Friday April 8th.

$1 bf/ft will buy as much green Red Oak FAS 4/4 as you want. A buying opportunity at that price.

[SwampDonkey]

Going in the right direction anyway. I say that because that plantation spruce is not that valuable, they aren't paying much at all at the stump. $280/th for private woodlot wood and way less off public land. ;) Half what it sold for in the late 90's and early 2000's. And lumber price back then was not even anywhere near what it is now.

[SwampDonkey]

Full time house flippers here have to pay taxes, no different than fixing up machinery and selling for a profit. I believe you are allowed to flip one house per year if it is not your main job. You can live in and sell your house tax free if lived in for that one year minimum.

Also people should move more. Too many people aren’t willing to move to a place they can get a job and afford. They’d rather just work part time and complain about outsiders raising housing prices. Plenty of jobs out there and affordable houses if one is willing to move.

Yes, a principle residence and no tax at sale time, except property tax, and no term attached to that. You are also except 1 year of not residing in it before the sale. And again, not all flips have reno's to improve anything.

And I don't agree with your last statement. Those that want work are seeking it, they are not finding affordable housing. Coming here to NB to retire is not looking for work. More often then not, the affordable house is in an economically depressed area. The two are not mutually exclusive.

[quilbilly]

Full time house flippers here have to pay taxes, no different than fixing up machinery and selling for a profit. I believe you are allowed to flip one house per year if it is not your main job. You can live in and sell your house tax free if lived in for that one year minimum.

Also people should move more. Too many people aren't willing to move to a place they can get a job and afford. They'd rather just work part time and complain about outsiders raising housing prices. Plenty of jobs out there and affordable houses if one is willing to move.

Yes, a principle residence and no tax at sale time, except property tax, and no term attached to that. You are also except 1 year of not residing in it before the sale. And again, not all flips have reno's to improve anything.

And I don't agree with your last statement. Those that want work are seeking it, they are not finding affordable housing. Coming here to NB to retire is not looking for work. More often then not, the affordable house is in an economically depressed area. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Of course we are speaking of two different situations, since we are in different countries and on opposite ends of those countries. I see Canada imposed a moratorium on foreign buyers of housing.

I am in one of the fastest rising property markets in the US. Locals can barely afford rent and are lucky to buy a house. However they could've moved 3 hours away and got an affordable house and a job at the same wage if they wanted to. But most are content to make barely above minimum wage and complain about the house price. Sounds like a different situation. I had multiple acquaintances go to the oil fields out of high school to save up enough money to move back and buy a house. It worked for them. Others could've done it but chose not to.

[SwampDonkey]

I know and know of a lot of folks who were out in Alberta during the boom. They could not afford housing and often none to be had. They stayed in travel trailers or onsite trailer parks or commuted every 2 weeks, maybe 4 weeks back to their loved ones. One of those guys is a neighbor here, decided to work for a building contractor the last four years, bought a lot and put a camp on it, off grid. Works at building homes year around, can't afford one. Alberta is a dust bowl for oil patch jobs now thanks to government climate mandates. Chasing the money doesn't always build the dream.

[moodnacreek]

Softwood Lumber futures closed at $950/mbf Friday April 8th.

$1 bf/ft will buy as much green Red Oak FAS 4/4 as you want. A buying opportunity at that price.

Recently I have sawed 4 sides clear r/o and b/o into 12x12 blocking because that is what logs I had. Some of these logs would have been rotary or better. What a shame.

[Don P]

A red oak cross laminated timber wall would look awesome.

[stavebuyer]

Panama City Paper Mill to close (wjhg.com)

[SwampDonkey]

Here's the link I watch on lumber Futures as well as gas prices at NY harbour (NB uses it as an index for our pump prices).

c1 CME RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES price information - FT.com


Here are market prices of lumber, panel goods, and pulp I watch.

Current lumber, pulp and panel prices

[SwampDonkey]

Futures still falling, $874.20 in yesterday's trading.

[bitternut]

OSB prices for plain old generic 7/16" x 4' x 8' in Buffalo NY this morning ( 4/13/22 ).

Lowes.............$45.95
Home Depot....$43.55.......69+ sheets $39.20 max of 90 sheets.

THEY CAN STUFF THAT OSB WHERE THE SUN DON'T SHINE :D

[Resonator]

Ground contact AC2 pressure treated 2x6x10 are running THREE DOLLARS CHEAPER 
each than the price of regular construction framing 2x6x10 at my local big-box (mail in your receipt for that rebate :D) store. 

[SwampDonkey]

Bank of Canada rate was hiked 0.5% today.

[Andries]

A buddy that builds out near Kenora, ON told me that when he was framing a building this winter, he used the pt 2x6's because they were less expensive. And they were in stock.

[LeeB]

Some prices from a local lumber store yesterday; 2x8x12=$16.20, 1x6x8=$7.00,treated 2x4x10=$9.75, pressure treated 2x4x8=$7.80 1/2" cdx=$48.00,3/8" cdx=$32.00

[SwampDonkey]

Lumber and panel prices continue to fall and have started a steeper fall recently.

[SwampDonkey]

Lumber prices are falling, but I see futures are up some from last week.

[stavebuyer]

Red Oak and Walnut both dropped in all grades and thicknesses this week in the HMR. Maple and Ash continue to rise. Bizarre for Maple to climb going into "stain season".