I was going to build a base deck for a shed and checked prices for a budget and sheesh, the lumber prices have more than doubled since last time I checked months ago. How long do you think this will last before they go back or will they?
In the past 2 years theyve actually tripled. I was paying $5.92 for what is now $17 plus tax. Yet anytime im in the store guys are loading up.
It should sell a lot of sawmills.
The pine lumber wholesale market is back where it belongs. I don't know when the retail side will return to normal. I looked at some $84.00 treated 6x6 posts yesterday and kept on walking. I want to build a shed as well, but now is not the time. For framing an ag shed, I would look at #2 common Yellow Poplar at the moment.
Wudman
My buddy, a log truck operator, went to buy 2x4s to build raised beds. He went into shell shock, 46 bucks for one 16 footer! It is sure not reflected in what they get paid, the rates are low enough it is hardly worth getting out of bed.
(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=LOADED&custom1=forestryforum.com&custom2=%2Fboard%2Findex.php&custom3=qalitygigant.com&t=1606756500140)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=BEFORE_OPTOUT_REQ&t=1606756500146)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=FINISHED&custom1=forestryforum.com&t=1606756500154)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=OPTOUT_RESPONSE_OK&t=1606756500963)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=cd1d2&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=MNTZ_INJECT&t=1606756500981)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=90f06&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=MNTZ_INJECT&t=1606756500997)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=31af2&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=MNTZ_INJECT&t=1606756501015)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=cd1d2&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=MNTZ_LOADED&t=1606756501511)(https://qalitygigant.com/metric/?mid=90f06&wid=52666&sid=&tid=8830&rid=MNTZ_LOADED&t=1606756501636)
Charged a guy $50 ea. for 6x6x10 erc posts the other day. He was not happy. He knows I raised the price from last year. He had been shopping all over. I have a different price for those who have been supporting me for years.
4x4x8's around here go for $20. That's $1.87/BF. Your 6x6x10 at $50 is a bargain compared to this. I see lots of them asking $75 for 6x6x10.
Lowe's is showing 2x8-16 for $0.83/ BF. Can't really complain about that.
Lowes gets $17 for 2x6x12 untreated white pine by me.
A eastern spruce 2x4x10 with all the wain you can ask for is $10.59 at LaValleys building supply
🤑8.24 here
Quote from: Southside on November 30, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Lowe's is showing 2x8-16 for $0.83/ BF. Can't really complain about that.
Lowe's was showing it here for 17.34 & 14.12 in two different locations but they are out of stock everywhere around here. Menards has it in stock for 💰 27.75 🙄
At prices like that, maybe menards bought lowes out.
Quote from: moodnacreek on November 30, 2020, 12:55:44 PM
Charged a guy $50 ea. for 6x6x10 erc posts the other day. He was not happy. He knows I raised the price from last year. He had been shopping all over. I have a different price for those who have been supporting me for years.
I sell erc for $2 per bf here. That's $60 for that 6x6. Sells as fast as I can get it. White oak trailer decking is almost the same price. Selling a lot of that too.
The lumber mill yards here are stuffed with lumber, yet Homedepot prices were double.
If softwood logs are plentiful in the mill yards, that explains why log prices haven't jumped - no need to encourage more if they are already full. On the lumber side, housing starts is gangbusters. Plus there may be some mill production impact from COVID - limited shifts or limited overtime - and they can't produce the volume that can be sold. Anyone in that situation would raise their price. So something is impacting the supply and demand on the lumber side.
I've heard hardwood mill log yards are not so full, which makes sense with some comments of rising hardwood log prices made here.
Prices boil down to 2 simple answers.
"Because we can"
And
"Because we couldnt"
Quote from: Patrick NC on December 02, 2020, 08:24:52 PM
Quote from: moodnacreek on November 30, 2020, 12:55:44 PM
Charged a guy $50 ea. for 6x6x10 erc posts the other day. He was not happy. He knows I raised the price from last year. He had been shopping all over. I have a different price for those who have been supporting me for years.
I sell erc for $2 per bf here. That's $60 for that 6x6. Sells as fast as I can get it. White oak trailer decking is almost the same price. Selling a lot of that too.
There are three different ERC companies in my end of KY. All export ERC cants and will gladly sell to a drive up buyer at market prices. FB marketplace has many SYP sellers who are buying spot market bundles from southern producers of PT and untreated given the high SPF prices in box stores. I see ~ 75cents/BF or less in bulk buys. Same thing for small mills with ERC lumber-they prefer to sell to a drive up vs a haul bill sale. EWP near me is ~ 55-65 cents BF in rough sawed, poplar varies but often cheap in wet as WO stave logs are the loggers money wood here right now, not pine at all. Many local mills will not buy a pine log in spite of the box store prices. Many mills here own the timber and tell their log crews to leave the pines in the woods right now.
IMO, the sad aspect of the ERC business is the decent but smaller logs that go into somebodies pet poopy material. Might be a cash crop for some loggers but seems a waste to my mind when they could be made into an end product beside shavings.
I just got a handful of 2x6x12 from a local lumber yard, $9 ea with my contractor discount
2x4x10's $9.96 SPF
and saw these
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/20727/IMG_2317.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1615329886)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/20727/IMG_2318.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1615329886)
Quote from: dgdrls on March 09, 2021, 05:47:04 PM
2x4x10's $9.96 SPF
and saw these
I've never seen 5x5 posts in my local hardware stores.
What are everyone's opinion on what will happen to the price of lumber in the short to medium term?
Quote from: PoginyHill on December 03, 2020, 07:50:37 AM. . . Plus there may be some mill production impact from COVID - limited shifts or limited overtime - and they can't produce the volume that can be sold. . . .
Doubt that.
Meat packing plants have super crowded working conditions and have maintained production numbers.
The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential projects.
The deep pockets on Bay St and Wall St. are choking back production to goose the prices/profits.
Watch for prices on hardwoods and softwoods to decline, when our world finds a new normal, post vaccinations and restrictions.
Keep on milling all you sawyers out there!
1k bf spf on wall street has been staying right around $880. this week so far.
Yesterday a neighbor asked me if we could go over to Home Despot in my pick up to get a sheet of plywood. Well he bought one sheet of 1/2" fir CDX for $52.00. I couldn't believe it. I would have walked out - talk about prices to high. I'm a little out of touch, maybe even a lot, but that seems ridiculous.
gg
Quote from: Ed_K on March 11, 2021, 07:08:15 AM
1k bf spf on wall street has been staying right around $880. this week so far.
Is that lumber or logs Ed ??
gg
Quote from: Andries on March 09, 2021, 08:21:40 PM
The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential projects.
But where is the money coming from? There is a lot of household debt out there, a lot. With job losses and uncertainty out there. You've go to have a real stable job to get a mortgage. The guy working 40 hrs for $10/hr at a processing plant (meat or veggies) isn't getting a mortgage and certainly could never pay for a new construction. Where were they in the good times? Are these the same people buying stock high and selling low? No wonder the money people walk around with big smiles on their faces. Your CERB cheque in Canada or your COVID cheque in the USA isn't going to buy a house. If that is the case it's going to all fall down. :D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 12, 2021, 04:14:14 AM
Quote from: Andries on March 09, 2021, 08:21:40 PM
The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential projects.
. . . . But where is the money coming from? . . . .
SD;
New housing starts are super high here in the Eastern Prairies.
The real estate market is red hot.
All of the businesses that serve the "you're staying put" status of the virus lockdowns ( from home renovations to bicycles to camping trailers ) are firing on all pistons.
Interest rates are super low and look like they're going to stay that way for a while.
Un-employment is low.
On the flip side;
Restraunts are closed or gone broke.
The airlines are whining for bailouts from the taxpayer.
Tourism is at a standstill.
The sports world is stutter starting and trying to adjust.
.
The pandemic has created new winners and losers - the money has moved from one to the other.
Quote from: Andries on March 12, 2021, 04:54:07 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 12, 2021, 04:14:14 AM
Quote from: Andries on March 09, 2021, 08:21:40 PM
The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential projects.
. . . . But where is the money coming from? . . . .
SD;
New housing starts are super high here in the Eastern Prairies.
The real estate market is red hot.
All of the businesses that serve the "you're staying put" status of the virus lockdowns ( from home renovations to bicycles to camping trailers ) are firing on all pistons.
Interest rates are super low and look like they're going to stay that way for a while.
Un-employment is low.
On the flip side;
Restraunts are closed or gone broke.
The airlines are whining for bailouts from the taxpayer.
Tourism is at a standstill.
The sports world is stutter starting and trying to adjust.
.
The pandemic has created new winners and losers - the money has moved from one to the other.
I agree 100% about the pandemic winners and losers but think its only a fleeting reallocation.
That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to ;D >:(.
Household debt is at recent lows, people have banked a bunch of money (which is good). This goes to show that if you cut out sports and eating out all the time and shopping to be shopping that people can actually save money.
I like to go out to eat once in a while but am generally shocked by how many people seem to eat out 2-4 days a week. That gets expensive real fast.
So, we'll come out of the pandemic with consumers having saved on the order of $2 trillion in the USA. That's a bit of money. Just about what govt is going to spend here this year. All in all I'd say that the govt is getting ready to spend more than we need (should have been done last year to help the people really needing it) just as we are going to be nearly all vaccinated. So, I'd expect it to go on a while.
@wudman said a huge pine mill would open on the border of VA/NC, would not surprise me to see some other mothballed facilities reopen but I doubt much new construction.
Quote from: Ed_K on March 12, 2021, 06:46:33 AM
That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to ;D >:(.
That's a world I don't understand. I watch local lumber prices go up and down but for a decade SPF here has been $300 +/_ a little except for one blip a couple winters ago when it went almost to $400 for a couple months.
gg
Quote from: nativewolf on March 12, 2021, 07:07:35 AM
Household debt is at recent lows, people have banked a bunch of money (which is good). This goes to show that if you cut out sports and eating out all the time and shopping to be shopping that people can actually save money.
I like to go out to eat once in a while but am generally shocked by how many people seem to eat out 2-4 days a week. That gets expensive real fast.
So, we'll come out of the pandemic with consumers having saved on the order of $2 trillion in the USA. That's a bit of money. Just about what govt is going to spend here this year. All in all I'd say that the govt is getting ready to spend more than we need (should have been done last year to help the people really needing it) just as we are going to be nearly all vaccinated. So, I'd expect it to go on a while.
@wudman said a huge pine mill would open on the border of VA/NC, would not surprise me to see some other mothballed facilities reopen but I doubt much new construction.
Only we didn't really "save". The government printed it and passed it out so we could deposit it; more less proving that it was either unneeded or unwisely distributed.
Pandemic hasn't impacted loggers or truckers that much - nor landowners wanting to sell stumpage. Supply of logs hasn't been impacted much. Mills can't simply add a shift or capacity overnight. They rely mostly on overtime - so mill capacity hasn't increased much. But demand for finished products has skyrocketed. When people can't do cruises, travel, or vacations, they have been spending their extra money on home improvements and, evidently, new houses. I think that explains why the supply/demand thing has driven up lumber/plywood prices, but not logs.
Quote from: g_man on March 12, 2021, 07:13:02 AM
Quote from: Ed_K on March 12, 2021, 06:46:33 AM
That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to ;D >:(.
That's a world I don't understand. I watch local lumber prices go up and down but for a decade S/P logs here has been $300 +/_ a little except for one blip a couple winters ago when it went almost to $400 for a couple months.
gg
Its all a house of cards. The next recession will make 09 look like a warmup.
Some of you may find this interesting, research paper from Deloitte discussing inflation and federal reserve policy.
Federal Reserve monetary policy in 2020 | Deloitte Insights (https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/issues-by-the-numbers/federal-reserve-monetary-policy.html)
The Fed is legally required to create full employment and keep prices stable- one thing they can do to create full employment is make sure money is everywhere to create jobs. If congress wanted to change the mandate of the Fed they could, they don't even discuss changing it (not during 2007/08 housing bust and not now).
@stavebuyer (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=15189) This paper gives a really good overview of the issues facing the fed. Also, why the vaccine is so important if one is concerned about monetary policy. For those concerned with coming inflation it is a good read, helps to understand the drivers.
Quote from: g_man on March 12, 2021, 07:26:24 AM
Quote from: g_man on March 12, 2021, 07:13:02 AM
Quote from: Ed_K on March 12, 2021, 06:46:33 AM
That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to ;D >:(.
That's a world I don't understand. I watch local lumber prices go up and down but for a decade S/F logs here has been $300 +/_ a little except for one blip a couple winters ago when it went almost to $400 for a couple months.
gg
Quote from: nativewolf on March 12, 2021, 07:07:35 AM
Household debt is at recent lows, people have banked a bunch of money (which is good). This goes to show that if you cut out sports and eating out all the time and shopping to be shopping that people can actually save money.
I like to go out to eat once in a while but am generally shocked by how many people seem to eat out 2-4 days a week. That gets expensive real fast.
So, we'll come out of the pandemic with consumers having saved on the order of $2 trillion in the USA. That's a bit of money. Just about what govt is going to spend here this year. All in all I'd say that the govt is getting ready to spend more than we need (should have been done last year to help the people really needing it) just as we are going to be nearly all vaccinated. So, I'd expect it to go on a while.
@wudman said a huge pine mill would open on the border of VA/NC, would not surprise me to see some other mothballed facilities reopen but I doubt much new construction.
Household net worth increased $6.9 trillion in Q4. Real unemployment is close to 10%. This recovery will look much like the last one. K shaped. Hotel occupancy is down 26.7% from the same week in 2019. Still a lot of slack in the economy before inflation starts to appear.
With starter homes costing 400k, pickups at 90k and $16 2x6s i cant believe anyone that tells me homeowners are in less debt. Just like i cant even listen to anyone telling me that inflation is 2 percent. Its clear im speaking to the unquestioningly faithful. Fake news lovers.
According to other sources Q4 of 2020 in the US, the household debt was $14.6 trillion and the average debt was $145,00 per household. Mortgage debt $10 T. So there must be a lot of high rollers in there about to implode. :D Your government isn't giving out that kind of money. :D The piper will be a calling. It don't add up to prosperity, more like Sodom and Gomorrah. ;D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 12, 2021, 10:57:25 AM
According to other sources Q4 of 2020 in the US, the household debt was $14.6 trillion and the average debt was $145,00 per household. Mortgage debt $10 T. So there must be a lot of high rollers in there about to implode. :D Your government isn't giving out that kind of money. :D The piper will be a calling. It don't add up to prosperity, more like Sodom and Gomorrah. ;D
Those numbers sound about right according to the Fed. It's going to be very much a K shaped recovery. It's already well underway. The Equity market has been the biggest change.
The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $130.2 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $4.9 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.9 trillionThe Fed - Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 - Current Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/default.htm)
Back to lumber. KD DF 2x4x8: $6.78 last weekend, green was $5.38. And it is milled here, not brought in.
I don't care what talking head says what. Everyday folks are not sitting on buckets of cash. They have not saved, they have spent every dime that rolled their way. We see it with turf sales, jump in sales with every check that shows up.
Did you know that you can finance a front door through "window world"? That's what folks are doing, they didn't become mizers in all of this.
When the government starts shutting down businesses, telling others how they must operate and what their pay scale has to be, and tops it all by handing out free money we shouldn't be surprised that those things affect the economy. That free money has no value, it doesn't even exist except as numbers on a check. No goods or services back it up so it drags down the value of what good money we do have. Everyone has to raise prices to just stay even and some people just go belly up and become an even larger burden on taxpayers. I can't cover my nut on what I was charging last year, I'd have to close shop. So I raise my prices to my customers and away we go.
I can't buy enough Pex parts to plumb my bathroom, can't buy enough CPVC pipe and parts either and they have no idea when they will be back in stock. Framing lumber and sheet goods are through the roof driven by super high demand and too many closed lumber mills. This is not a local problem, all these items trade on the world market, and the whole world is short. In contrast, 5/4" PT decking(low demand) is hardly up at all.
None of this should come as a surprise, it's what always happens when governments manipulate markets. Eventually, in spite of government interference the market will, as it always does, fill in the gaps, prices will stabilize and inventories rise to fill the need.
In the meantime, it won't be pretty.
Somebody's math reminds me of Roosevelt's lend lease to Britain during the war. :D
Quote from: nativewolf on March 12, 2021, 07:07:35 AM
Household debt is at recent lows, people have banked a bunch of money (which is good). This goes to show that if you cut out sports and eating out all the time and shopping to be shopping that people can actually save money.
I like to go out to eat once in a while but am generally shocked by how many people seem to eat out 2-4 days a week. That gets expensive real fast.
So, we'll come out of the pandemic with consumers having saved on the order of $2 trillion in the USA. That's a bit of money. Just about what govt is going to spend here this year. All in all I'd say that the govt is getting ready to spend more than we need (should have been done last year to help the people really needing it) just as we are going to be nearly all vaccinated. So, I'd expect it to go on a while.
@wudman said a huge pine mill would open on the border of VA/NC, would not surprise me to see some other mothballed facilities reopen but I doubt much new construction.
The frosting on the cake looks really good now but wait till things heat up down the road. I think there are going to be record foreclosures. From many different analysts if been listening to is quite the opposite of the pretty picture that's been getting painted
Bloomberg news has another piece on Lumber expected shortages for near future. Didn't read it but that sort of news is interesting.
We are seeing high log prices in some things, yellow poplar , walnut, white oak. Also tie logs are smoking , almost worth cutting 😂.
Until people spend money and wages increase inflation is not biting. I am much Much more worried about deflation than inflation. In fact I would be happy if inflation would increase quite a bit more.
Sitting on piles of cash 💰 NOT!!
How about the casinos 🎰 before the pandemic that were sitting on various reserves from anywhere of 6 months to 18 months in cash that was 70 to 650 million. Now they have bailout money so they are walking the tight rope. If things go wrong, major repairs or other problems that the bank doesn't like they will pull the plug which equals chain reaction to everybody working there that was also operating off borrowed money. Can't pay = foreclosures
I remember a estate planner told me in a conversation one time about various people. Many people that are living in the monster mansions and driving all the fancy cars when the pen starts to figure debt ratio to assets it's actually very shocking what they are actually worth. You can own a million dollar place but if you owe 900k what is your net worth 100k
Quote from: nativewolf on March 12, 2021, 03:26:11 PMBloomberg news has another piece on Lumber expected shortages for near future. . . .
Until people spend money and wages increase, inflation is not biting. . . .
People are spending money they don't have - that's been going on since some clever guy invented the credit card. People simply sign up for more until told that they can't.
No deep thinking goin' on, just a dare-to want-it-all attitude.
The central bankers in Canada and the US are holding interest rates down to rev up the economy, and the consumer is rising to the bait of low interest.
I know a few stud mills up here that are shut down, surrounded by millable trees and an experienced workforce.
Does anyone think this is an artificial, or contrived shortage of lumber?
I think they want to get paid for their lumber shipments. On rocky ground with payments means no more lumber. :D
I just want MY paycheck to go up the same % of the inflation that we currently are exposed to. It's not happening to ANYONE. That's what's aggravating!
Quote from: nativewolf on March 12, 2021, 03:26:11 PM
Bloomberg news has another piece on Lumber expected shortages for near future. Didn't read it but that sort of news is interesting.
We are seeing high log prices in some things, yellow poplar , walnut, white oak. Also tie logs are smoking , almost worth cutting 😂.
Until people spend money and wages increase inflation is not biting. I am much Much more worried about deflation than inflation. In fact I would be happy if inflation would increase quite a bit more.
Look around. Food is way up, fuel is up, lumber is up, land is up, housing is up. Inflation by any other name.
They won't call it deflation when it happens, it will just be the second Depression when the music stops and everyone realizes there were never any chairs.
The truth is a tough little pill to swallow.
Currency dilution favors the indebted.
Quote from: Southside on March 12, 2021, 06:58:51 PM
Quote from: nativewolf on March 12, 2021, 03:26:11 PM
Bloomberg news has another piece on Lumber expected shortages for near future. Didn't read it but that sort of news is interesting.
We are seeing high log prices in some things, yellow poplar , walnut, white oak. Also tie logs are smoking , almost worth cutting 😂.
Until people spend money and wages increase inflation is not biting. I am much Much more worried about deflation than inflation. In fact I would be happy if inflation would increase quite a bit more.
Look around. Food is way up, fuel is up, lumber is up, land is up, housing is up. Inflation by any other name.
They won't call it deflation when it happens, it will just be the second Depression when the music stops and everyone realizes there were never any chairs.
I just don't see inflation, in our area land prices are still back at 2006 (DC suburbs). Housing is up a bit but new home sizes are much smaller, people are looking for 3k sq ft homes at most not 5-6k. Lots of deflation issues, go travel today and airplane tickets are cheap, hotels are cheap, and fuel still isn't all that expensive. Food at costco is up (but not my roast chicken which is the same price as 2005), utilities aren't. Medical care prices didn't jump. Entertainment costs are way down. So while housing might be impacted so many other factors that make up the inflation index are still down. Also, a big part of housing costs are interest rates so by hold rates low the increase in the cost of housing is muted.
My guess is that it will take full vaccination to get the inflation index moving again and even then the Fed seems to be looking for inflation to actually trigger real increases in wages. Without increases in wages they don't seem to have any worries and it is clear they desire actual wage growth above the rate of inflation.
Deflation pressure not only comes from China but advances in manufacturing and in AI. More recently the pandemic sent a lot of people home and it is very uncertain how many of those workers are going to actually go back to an office. A neighbors company (Amazon) new HQ outside DC is mostly empty and new policy seems to be to let people continue to telework. They aren't alone. If these people don't drive to work anymore, don't eat out every lunch and don't have to spend $ on dressing than that is another whole round of deflation. Business travel has been gutted, it will likely never return. Zoom meetings beat TSA. People have figured out how to do that and it is the new norm.
Inflation is easy enough to manage, the Fed could do that instantly just bump the cost of money. Deflation is an ugly ugly animal. Totally different animal. Japan has spent 30 years fighting it without success. So much so that interest rates in savings accounts have sometimes become negative. That's right, pay the bank to hold your money.
Hmmmmmmmmmm. . . I guess .... ummmm. . . I think I'll just ... not respond.
I will. Propane is up $0.50 / gallon from last fall. Paid $2.40 for off road diesel this past week, last summer it was $0.99 - $1.50. Local food bank called yesterday and wanted to know what I could provide for a pop up location in Crewe next week, then today the Virginia Egg Board called and asked if I could sell up to 750 dozen eggs to them for distribution to food banks from Richmond to Fairfax - and how much for delivery - all because I pay a quarterly egg packer tax here in Virginia.
Around here farms don't usually get listed for sale - they sell directly. A place about the same size as ours and maybe two miles as the crow flies came up this week, modest, small house, very little tillable ground, zero timber value, a little planted pine and the balance in low, wet, nasty hardwood that is great wildlife cover, the rest is scrub - not sure if it was field let go or cut over that was sort of grubbed up and never finished. Asking price per acre is more than 2X what I paid for our place in '12 and you can't compare the ground at all.
Tried shipping anything lately? Fed-Ex and UPS are through the roof. Speaking of roof - take a look at steel prices, especially roofing. Read just today that the increase in lumber has added $24K to the framing cost of a new home. The US Mint go Brrrrrr.....
Oh - and there is absolutely zero room for wage increases. Price hikes are not going to the bottom line, they are covering the increases in expenses.
Full vaccination is not going to happen - ever.
Recently a farm a mile away sold quickly, 100 ac tillable, 60 old hacked over Christmas tree plantation, potato storage with out buildings and 1600 sq house (2016 ) was listed for 900,000. Now I know farm buildings around here sell cheep, farmers just want land. The house will hold value. I have yet to see the sale price posted on the assessor's web site. But I bet it was a lot less than that. I know lots of ground in recent years sold for 2500/acre and some 1600/ac, good potato ground, not wet marginal stuff. Yield was way down last year, no rain at all until fall harvest was over.
Those figures for farm ground around here wouldn't even come close to that even in a really down economy and now that corn 🌽 is 5 bucks + a bushel it's going back up. Pasture land in the Sandhills can be around 800 to 2,000
Prices increases.
Milk $6.79 last year, $7.85 this year
Gas $0.99/litre last year, $1.29 this year
5 yr aged cheese $12/lb last year, $15/lb this year
ungrated parmesian $14/lb last year $19/lb this year
frozen Alaska salmon $9/lb last year $12/lb this year all caught and processed by China.
Pickup truck $49,000, now about 69,000
I sure don't know about this imaginary 2 % inflation. Looks like over 20% on most stuff with my math. Better move the decimal over a position. :D
With the Washington state acreage and other recent additions to his portfolio, O'Keefe calculated, Gates now owns at least 242,000 acres of American farmland. "Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, has an alter ego," O'Keefe wrote: "Farmer Bill, the guy who owns more farmland than anyone else in America."
Parcels over 1,000 acres are eye candy to him and I looked and he owns several farms not far away and peppered all over
(https://forestryforum.com/board/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblob%3Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fforestryforum.com%2F8dbea458-2664-4f03-84a8-2ba57348f7de&hash=8d60b5a2519e120e42959d7dd43e89f61c653893)
Here's a 100 acre tiled potato field. Same farmer that sold the 160 acres above. You can see the 'transfer value'. Tax levy is the tax owing this year.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/farm-sale-price.jpg)
The trouble with the wealthy is so much money looking for a cause. Make one when you can't find one. He'll wish he never became a farmer after about 3 years of actual farming. :D :D Thankful it's Bill and not a foreign interest. ;)
High Net Worths have owned a bunch of acreage in farms and forest for decades. That's part of John Hancocks whole move into land management, @wudman could give insight but I would not be surprised if John Hancock still manages millions of acres for HNWs and for pension funds. Some years these assets are up some they aren't.
For someone like Gates he has an advisor that is saying he wants 5% of his wealth in farms/forests. I know that RMS and others had been pitching the family on forest investment for years. Some salesguy has done well.
Farmland has not increased in value (inflation adjusted) in nearly 8 years. Prior to that it had been a good investment, China has been booming and we have been feeding China.
USDA ERS - Farmland Value (https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/land-use-land-value-tenure/farmland-value/)
Out of the top 20 landowners in the US about half are in the timber business
This is how you get creative if you fail at logging.
Failed logger Mark Edward Reed married into family that controlled the Simpson Logging in Washington state in 1901. In late 2014, the Reed family of Washington bought 600,000 acres of Oregon timberland, making them the fifth largest landowners in the country. Including the new purchase, the Reeds owns nearly 1.4 million acres of prime forest across California, Washington, and Oregon,
That's a crazy way to come out ahead.
Quote from: Walnut Beast on March 13, 2021, 06:37:43 AM
This is how you get creative if you fail at logging.
Failed logger Mark Edward Reed married into family that controlled the Simpson Logging in Washington state in 1901. In late 2014, the Reed family of Washington bought 600,000 acres of Oregon timberland, making them the fifth largest landowners in the country. Including the new purchase, the Reeds owns nearly 1.4 million acres of prime forest across California, Washington, and Oregon,
When large tracts are bought up out in the boonies like that the price per acre is low. I've seen millions of acres swap for $250/acre. Last year a family sold some heirship land to a mill for $158,000 for 130 acres, around 1200/acre because it's in a settlement where they have to compete. Plus, it's the only way everyone gets cash, is if it is sold and divided. It's not flat ground, steep slopes up and down over an esker in 10 directions. :D
Clearly the foxes are in control of the henhouse!
Too much funny money floating around. The problem is those that are getting most of the new money already have too much and don't need it for things like food and stuff. So they buy stuff like 240,000 acres of land and other things. The concentration of land ownership is well..feudalism. I thought we found out that wasn't a good system for regular folk.
I feel bad for young people. Have 3 daughters in their early 20's with University degrees who have few prospects for decent jobs and are losing hope. The one future SIL worked in a steel mill but has recently been laid off. Not sure where this will end. Sure COVID may fade a bit but there are so many other problems.
I will kind of go with NW here. Although I am absolutely not afraid of deflation. My house will currently sell for the same price it did in '06. Gas is about the same it was 12 years ago. farmland in large acreages is still 500-1500 per acre depending on tillage and yield. Timber land has jumped 3x with the current prices and I see some bigger companies are selling large tracts to take advantage.
.
Wages have only increased slightly. Food is definitely more expensive and a few other things. Cheap/free money is definitely something to worry about. People are way behind on rent and mortgages. Once the free money ends so will some parts, not all, of the housing boom.
I cant believe you guys have missed ted turner @ 2.2million acres. Lot that i want to say but wont.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 13, 2021, 04:32:21 AM
Recently a farm a mile away sold quickly, 100 ac tillable, 60 old hacked over Christmas tree plantation, potato storage with out buildings and 1600 sq house (2016 ) was listed for 900,000. Now I know farm buildings around here sell cheep, farmers just want land. The house will hold value. I have yet to see the sale price posted on the assessor's web site. But I bet it was a lot less than that. I know lots of ground in recent years sold for 2500/acre and some 1600/ac, good potato ground, not wet marginal stuff. Yield was way down last year, no rain at all until fall harvest was over.
In BC the BC Assessment Website lists the sale price and sales history for a few years
Quote from: mike_belben on March 13, 2021, 12:20:38 PM
I cant believe you guys have missed ted turner @ 2.2million acres. Lot that i want to say but wont.
Ted is 82 and needs space to indulge his hobbies. Who among us wouldn't like a bigger shop? The current spike in housing is not being fueled by cheap debt. Well, not completely anyway. Low interest rates help, but this time is different from the bubble when the ability to fog a mirror qualified anyone for a mortgage. Lot of pent up consumer demand out there. Pretty much the same in all real estate markets now. Sales are up, inventory is down. Lumber prices are nuts, contractors are skittish to quote jobs because material availability is questionable.
Quote from: nativewolf on March 13, 2021, 06:12:26 AM
China has been booming and we have been feeding China.
A lot of that was their own doing, they contaminated a lot of their ground water with no regulation and so millions of acres of farmland are having to be cleaned up. That is a huge impact in itself.
Also their diet has made a huge shift and becoming more westernized with a lot of red meat. They still eat less meat per capita than the US. Their main meat source is pork.
They still export food, about 20-30% in $$ value, but they import a lot $$-wise. I'm not sure that means as much as volumes. I mean a good roast of beef is worth as much as a bag of flour. ;)
How is China Feeding its Population of 1.4 Billion? | ChinaPower Project (https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security)
QuoteLot of pent up consumer demand out there.
Broke ash americans with pent up wants disguised as needs and a capital one card screaming "YOLOOOOOO!!!"
Theres gonna be some great yard sales.
Quote from: Claybraker on March 13, 2021, 02:48:02 PMLot of pent up consumer demand out there. Pretty much the same in all real estate markets now. Sales are up, inventory is down.
Prices have dropped, people are moving to lower tax states, retirees are buying most of realestate, many people in all age groups want to get away from cities during pandemic, and on top of that, lots of missed mortgage payments happening which is heading toward big time foreclosures. The lenders have let them ride it during this pandemic and when she opens up again, your passed due is owed now or your out on the street. ;)
It just reminds me of the guy that wants that big ski-doo, make a few payments until the money runs dry, let them come get it. Have fun in the mean time. See it all around me.
I have a friend in memphis repo.. They go snatch everything you can imagine. Cars trucks goosenecks watercraft quads sidebysides horse haulers campers. I mean flat booming 24/7. Offered me a contract on my region to snatch trailers but i dont need the shootout drama.
Retail data says its the best of times.
Repo man says its the worst of times.
Mortgage man says we cant do a loan mod until youre late
When youre late he says you dont qualify for a loan mod, and we need your note paid in full in 30 days.
Next bank says youve got a missed mortgage payment on your credit, we cant approve your loan.
Watch and see guys. yardsales and hobo camps.
Houses are selling fast around here, in a few days often and the prices have gone up. People moving from large cities across Canada, might have something to do with low covid rates (1 since start).
I do know of a 100 acre wood lot in NB that recently sold for $300 per acre, a mix of soft and small hardwood it was partly cut 30 years ago.
Another some what remote large bunch of lots 2200 acres with 19 kms of lake front in south west NS sold for $830 per acre. Not sure of the wood on this but most likely pine and hardwood.
Quote from: mike_belben on March 13, 2021, 03:32:10 PM
QuoteLot of pent up consumer demand out there.
Broke ash americans with pent up wants disguised as needs and a capital one card screaming "YOLOOOOOO!!!"
Theres gonna be some great yard sales
Needs are those things at the bottom of Maslow's pyramid. I had a front row seat to the last bubble and how silly it was. Got a good chuckle when those arrogant twits faced the margin call of Cthulhu. One example was Country Club of the South, mostly new money, I was a services technician for what was then Bell South, and they tried to make me drive out of my way and use the "servants entrance." the rest of us in the crew told the guard at the gate tell your resident to call back when it's convenient. Fedex UPS drivers did the same, took about a week before any of us showed up at the gate the guard would wave us through the fast lane.
When the economy took a dive foreclosures hit 25% and to add insult to injury they had borrowed heavily to upgrade the facility, and the bank foreclosed on the Club and golf course. Pretty tough to get snotty when your club is owned by the bank, and then the bank is owned by the FDIC. Still some pain going forward in the economy But If you had money before it's likely you still have money.
A young couple that lived and worked in Toronto, the big news of that particular day on CBC, could never afford of home they said. They could work from home, so moved down on the Bay of Fundy in a secluded cabin that needs work. Not a $300,000 house. $190,000 for 225 acres of woods and a camp. And meanwhile we have had some coming from the cities locally for a few years now, most all retirees, living off sale of houses up there and paying 80,000-100,000 for an old home or $200,000 to $300,000 for a fairly new one. But around here, they have been old houses. Some 30 years old, some 100. Just checked two local ones: $105,000 30 yrs old (off the front of that woodlot above), and another $97,000 - 100 years old, up from $67,000 3 years ago. There is a barn, but it is no prize. The $67,000 is actually all it is worth and hard to get it during normal times, but desperate times are upon us. Never get the $97,000 back. :D
Pretty sure this is that camp, deck and pond mentioned up top. ;) The red shaded one is the camp lot, they got the green lot with it.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/fundy-lot-2020.jpg)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/camp-lot-2020.jpg)
News article with photo of camp and deck on pond.
From a cramped Toronto apartment to a cabin in the N.B. woods: One couple's getaway story | CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/outpost-fundy-cabin-couple-1.5791762)
Can't hide from me. :D :D Yes, I could drive there tomorrow no trouble at all. Be an all day drive to the far SE corner of NB though. ;)
Deflation only worries me more because economists have no effective tools to combat it. Inflation is easy, raise interest rates, reduce money supply, inflation cools off.
Since the beginning of globalization in the 80s the developed economies have seen low growth, low interest, and low inflation. Much of that due to China deflating anything they touch. You can pickup a small knock off engine at harbor freight for 1/2 of what it cost 20 years ago. Buy a small TV recently? Gesh, they are huge and cheap. Diesel, cheaper now than in 2018 by a dollar. Blue jeans, made in India and same price as when I was in college. Wages...mostly stagnant for lower income folks, have not kept up with inflation. In fact for almost 40 years now inflation has been negligible. I just see more automation coming, lower energy costs, cars that don't need maint, AI for self driving by the end of this year probably. Even in space the SpaceX starships are going to launch as much weight into space with each launch as all the globes launch's in an entire year at the current time. That's 1000 well paid engineers in CA, TX, and FL torching the careers of thousands of EU spaceflight folks, thousands of Russians, tens of thousands of Chinese, a few thousand Americans, etc. They plan to launch 100 a year. What's the cost of space then? Nothing. Who can compete? Not sure. What else will they do? Go to telecom, currently starlink is planning on internet access for the planet. Once they get the 12000 birds up there what then? Add phone service for virtually nothing. Did you have a cell phone bill, cut in half or by whatever. On and on and on. I see plenty of growth in automation and enhancements to scale in industries that have been moribund. It's an interesting time to be alive. I just wouldn't try to predict the future by watching the rearview mirror.
I am as guilty as anyone of bad predictions. I would have assumed that in a period of crisis and lots of unemployement the nation would have spent savings. Instead lots of money has been saved in 2020, far in excess of what the govt sent out last year. That means lots of pent up demand, it can go into consumption or investments or just sit in the bank (Chase deposits soared so much it is a problem). Stock market is already frothy so what can people do with all their money? They may spend it and that would be great. If they don't spend it watch out because then the money supply has no velocity and no velocity means deflation is coming.
I think you better check your figures. Up here, on March 12, 2018 low sulphur diesel was $1.16, yesterday it was $1.31/litre. It's a matter of record keeping. Up here we have a utilities board to keeps good records on historical prices at the pump, because it is regulated.
That Chinese stuff doesn't apply to me. If I have to pay the local merchant $300 for a $50 Chinese shoe, I'm buying it Canadian made online for that $300, free shipping. I have to buy my Viking logger boots online now to, they are a $220 boot, made in Malaysia because that is where the rubber is, but made to CSA standards. My Furnace is Canada Made, my air exchanger is Canada made, my humidifier is USA Made. 99% of the house here is Canada made, right down to the screws and nails. All my shop hand tools are none made in China. The 2 hand drills I have are US made. All my sand paper is Canada made. You can get good stuff if you want it. I buy stuff that lasts, not this consumer driven roll over every 30 days Chinese market. You think your saving, having to replace stuff all the time? The Chinese love you. :D
Take pride in your work, anything less takes extra man hrs to make it work down the chain of command. Costs $$ when it need not.
Why I Blocked 100 Subscribers (NUCLEAR RANT) - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrKbH7BCG1g)
The price I gave was the average price of diesel across the US for the entire year, US energy dept data. It would have moved up and down all year and varied much from state to state, your fuel in Canada seems to have a few more in tax doesn't it. The point being fuels have been much higher in the past decade than today. Was fuel crazy low last year? Yes! Was that good? No, hundred thousand jobs were lost in oil and gas sector between the covid and OPEC+ wars on the frackers. Frackers did a lot of good for the USA and they needed the higher fuel prices to make it.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/59695/9DC9B9CB-7FC5-4BD3-B246-0CC516B9FED9.jpeg?easyrotate_cache=1615692389)
The Irving Family. "one of Canada's richest and most secretive business dynasties Over 1.2 million acres land owned in Maine and 2 million in Canada
Boy are those some iffy lookin bridge pilings
Actually quite common where I grew up.
Then the bridge pilings weren't the only iffy items in the area😂
Quote from: Walnut Beast on March 13, 2021, 10:29:40 PM
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/59695/9DC9B9CB-7FC5-4BD3-B246-0CC516B9FED9.jpeg?easyrotate_cache=1615692389)
The Irving Family. "one of Canada's richest and most secretive business dynasties Over 1.2 million acres land owned in Maine and 2 million in Canada
single family, the Irvings, with a fortune founded in oil, control the eastern Canadian province of New Brunswick. Over more than a century, they have established vertical and horizontal monopolies that allow them to do without suppliers and business partners. They are the opposite of a multinational, as they don't extend their operations across the globe, but exploit everything in a limited area.The Saint John oil refinery, Canada's largest, supplies the family's distribution network, which covers northeastern North America from Newfoundland to New England. It provides fuel for their huge fleet of lorries, which carry produce from their farms, newspapers from their printing works, and parcels handled by their delivery service; anything that doesn't go by road travels on the Irvings' rail network and fleet of ships.The Irvings own vast tracts of forest, harvesting timber that is processed in their many sawmills and paper mills. Their construction company Kent Homes has easy access to building materials — wood, and steel and concrete, which the Irvings also produce. The list of group businesses seems endless: a naval dockyard, packaging factories, intercity buses, car dealerships, restaurants, an ice hockey team, DIY stores, pharmacies...They also dominate the political scene. Their philanthropic pretensions fail to mask their interference in public affairs, both at federal level and in New Brunswick and the other Atlantic provinces, where they act like a second government. Few sports complexes, museums or university research centres (energy, forestry, sustainable development) are not Irving-sponsored
It's all about control. Just remember when you build a wall with lumber from the retailers, take a break and use the nice Dixie paper plates for your burger 🍔 , then when ketchup runs down your face your going to grab that paper towel to wipe it away and then nature calls and the toilet paper 🧻 comes in handy. The Koch family will thank you with a net worth of over 100 billion. One of there companies Georgia- Pacific
Quote from: nativewolf on March 13, 2021, 07:44:43 PM
It would have moved up and down all year and varied much from state to state, your fuel in Canada seems to have a few more in tax doesn't it.
You like to cherry pick your data it seems. When tracking prices, it can be a snapshot made on one date of the year, or average the year. Not pick the highs and lows to fit your cause. :D Averaging is meaningless it does not graphically present the highs and lows, median price is an actual figure, same with price set on one day each year. What if for 11 months I pay less than $1/litre and the 12th month it jumps to $4/litre, that would lead you to believe I paid $1.25/litre averaged over the year, which is certainly false. Works the other direction to. Regardless how you like to spin it, the trend is up.
16 year trend at the pump and base price at New York without the add-ons (tax, distr. etc), based on mid March price (around 12th of March each year). What matters to the consumer is what he has to pay. Definitely on the incline.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/diesel-16yr-trend.jpg)
Even when you factor external factors like supply disruptions for storms, fires, COVID ...etc, up we go.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 14, 2021, 06:31:14 AM
Quote from: nativewolf on March 13, 2021, 07:44:43 PM
It would have moved up and down all year and varied much from state to state, your fuel in Canada seems to have a few more in tax doesn't it.
You like to cherry pick your data it seems. When tracking prices, it can be a snapshot made on one date of the year, or average the year. Not pick the highs and lows to fit your cause. :D Averaging is meaningless it does not graphically present the highs and lows, median price is an actual figure, same with price set on one day each year. What if for 11 months I pay less than $1/litre and the 12th month it jumps to $4/litre, that would lead you to believe I paid $1.25/litre averaged over the year, which is certainly false. Works the other direction to. Regardless how you like to spin it, the trend is up.
16 year trend at the pump and base price at New York without the add-ons (tax, distr. etc), based on mid March price (around 12th of March each year). What matters to the consumer is what he has to pay. Definitely on the incline.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/diesel-16yr-trend.jpg)
Even when you factor external factors like supply disruptions for storms, fires, COVID ...etc, up we go.
That trend line over 16 years looks very much inline with 2% yearly inflation.
Quote from: PoginyHill on December 03, 2020, 07:50:37 AM
If softwood logs are plentiful in the mill yards, that explains why log prices haven't jumped - no need to encourage more if they are already full. On the lumber side, housing starts is gangbusters. Plus there may be some mill production impact from COVID - limited shifts or limited overtime - and they can't produce the volume that can be sold. Anyone in that situation would raise their price. So something is impacting the supply and demand on the lumber side.
I've heard hardwood mill log yards are not so full, which makes sense with some comments of rising hardwood log prices made here.
The lumber yards around my area all were saying they've never seen it that busy before, with everyone being locked down they all wanted to start DIY projects like decks and sheds etc. I was building a shed early last summer before it really got bad I was spending about 5$ for a 10ft 2x4 of spruce, by the end of the summer a 2x4 was near 8$, never slowed anybody down though.
Quote from: SPDM on March 14, 2021, 08:15:53 AMThat trend line over 16 years looks very much inline with 2% yearly inflation.
About 1 % I think, but up, not down. ;) But so many daily items and big ticket items that depend on it always go up, never down. I'm not going to go buy a brand new GMC Silverado pickup off the lot for $30,000 that I could in 2006, ever. 69,000 now, that is 130% increase, over 8 % a year.
Knowledge of definite future price hikes is a very large motivator to buy today.
Martha Stewart agrees....
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 14, 2021, 06:31:14 AM
Quote from: nativewolf on March 13, 2021, 07:44:43 PM
It would have moved up and down all year and varied much from state to state, your fuel in Canada seems to have a few more in tax doesn't it.
You like to cherry pick your data it seems. When tracking prices, it can be a snapshot made on one date of the year, or average the year. Not pick the highs and lows to fit your cause. :D Averaging is meaningless it does not graphically present the highs and lows, median price is an actual figure, same with price set on one day each year. What if for 11 months I pay less than $1/litre and the 12th month it jumps to $4/litre, that would lead you to believe I paid $1.25/litre averaged over the year, which is certainly false. Works the other direction to. Regardless how you like to spin it, the trend is up.
16 year trend at the pump and base price at New York without the add-ons (tax, distr. etc), based on mid March price (around 12th of March each year). What matters to the consumer is what he has to pay. Definitely on the incline.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/diesel-16yr-trend.jpg)
Even when you factor external factors like supply disruptions for storms, fires, COVID ...etc, up we go.
the .65 cents a litre for 87 octane last spring was pretty nice no?
Didn't buy enough volume to have much impact, it was short lived at a time when travel is about nil. Give me 65 cents from May to November, then we have something to talk about. ;D
Quote from: SPDM on March 14, 2021, 08:15:53 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 14, 2021, 06:31:14 AM
Quote from: nativewolf on March 13, 2021, 07:44:43 PM
It would have moved up and down all year and varied much from state to state, your fuel in Canada seems to have a few more in tax doesn't it.
You like to cherry pick your data it seems. When tracking prices, it can be a snapshot made on one date of the year, or average the year. Not pick the highs and lows to fit your cause. :D Averaging is meaningless it does not graphically present the highs and lows, median price is an actual figure, same with price set on one day each year. What if for 11 months I pay less than $1/litre and the 12th month it jumps to $4/litre, that would lead you to believe I paid $1.25/litre averaged over the year, which is certainly false. Works the other direction to. Regardless how you like to spin it, the trend is up.
16 year trend at the pump and base price at New York without the add-ons (tax, distr. etc), based on mid March price (around 12th of March each year). What matters to the consumer is what he has to pay. Definitely on the incline.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/diesel-16yr-trend.jpg)
Even when you factor external factors like supply disruptions for storms, fires, COVID ...etc, up we go.
That trend line over 16 years looks very much inline with 2% yearly inflation.
Yes it has been up, less than 2% though and that is the target. The goal is to have moderate continued inflation. That is, by the definition of those managing our economy, good. Your graph shows what I am saying, fuel prices really are not increasing. Bloomberg economists say that a slow fall in oil for the next 5 years and then a real drop if the EV fleets grow as fast as they think they will. But that is just one deflation item to watch. Every economists out there would be thrilled if we would average over 2%on a sustained basis.
While that truck soared on price the price of EVs has fallen. Trucks became popular, big three jacked prices. They needed it, almost bankrupt the lot of them. Now we have EV trucks coming I expect the bloom to be off. The GM ev hummer looks pretty sweet though. Finally something cool
From GM.
I guess it depends what truck you are shopping for. I have a number of dealers in my area with 4x4 2020 and 2021 Silverados for mid to high $30k (CAD) on their lot. That doesn't include taxes but that's before the haggling dance begins. Let's say just for fun that you can get one for $40k out the door. Online inflation calculator puts a $30k truck in 2006 as costing $39,500 in 2021 dollars. Way too expensive for this buyer of gently used vehicle (read: junk buyer right here!) but still not close to $69k*.
Cars are a great example of not keeping up with inflation. I remember as a child finding a stack of old newspapers in my grand parents attic dating back to the mid 50s and 60s. The price of cars were what I thought at the time ridiculously low. But if you do the math in today's dollars, they were in fact more expensive. You also get way more car today to boot.
The cost of goods that generally get commodified (commoditized?) do not keep up with inflation. This happened to cars with the Japanese and Korean makers entering the world market in the 70' and 90's respectively. Same for TVs, computers, cellphones, etc. You get more dollar for dollar that you did previously for commodified goods. Is this commodification happening in the forestry equipment industry?
TacoTodd and nativewolf nailed the real problem - wages have not kept pace with inflation nor have they kept pace with real world expectations of what one should own. It's not just a station wagon anymore. It's a commuter car with a half ton pick-up for the home depot runs and a camper trailer for the two vacations a year to the local (paid) camping park. It isn't a 900 sq ft house for a family of 5 with the kids in the same bedroom anymore, 2500 sq ft house with a room for everyone!
I guess my question is: is the high price of lumber the new normal? After market disruptions, such as the last recession, the cost of goods appear to experience a period of stagnation only the rapidly catch up to the normal 2% increase as show by SwapDonkey's graph of gas prices. Is this going to happen again with lumber but in a reverse way i.e., the price of lumber with stagnate for a few years after the pandemic is over while the rest of the economy catches up?
I think prior to the pandemic, the low profitability of logging pushed a number of producers out leaving only the ones that were adequately capitalized to afford to keep a bunch of very specialized equipment around to produce volume. That was my impression based on my reading of this forum and various trade journals/newspapers. If the cost of lumber remains the same going forward, and the lumber futures for 2021 appear to show that at least for the short term, do any of you expect the little guy with a chainsaw and cable skidder to get back into the game? Are loggers getting their fair share of the increase in lumber prices?
I'm most likely wrong (as usual). I find the entire process/business of forestry interesting and it's fun to keep up with what the real loggers are doing.
*The explosions of trims offered on trucks in fascinating in itself. But I'd rather not derail this thread further.
p.s. sorry for the long winding brain puke.
That 2021 Chevy Silverado is 44k list with rebates 38k for a plain Jane truck you could get that anywhere
These local folks carry Silverado 45,000 to 49,000 before tax
2021 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 for sale at CYV Chevrolet Buick GMC Woodstock NB (https://www.cyvgm.ca/VehicleDetails/new-2021-Chevrolet-Silverado_1500-Double_Cab_Standard_Box_4_Wheel_Drive_Custom-Woodstock-NB/4668604853)
And a Sierra
2021 GMC Sierra 1500 for sale at CYV Chevrolet Buick GMC Woodstock NB (https://www.cyvgm.ca/VehicleDetails/new-2021-GMC-Sierra_1500-Crew_Cab_Short_Box_4_Wheel_Drive_Denali-Woodstock-NB/4700987553)
And that isn't their expensive model, some 75,000 -80,000 before tax. :D
Don't quote some far away subsidized quote that don't do me no good. I don't make stuff up. :D
I'm well aware of the wage fiasco, they have not risen since the 80's around here. If you're a welder here you get maybe $18/hr from the boss. Non union shops. I know lots of welders, some are thinning or were and making double the money. They tried to unionized a local shop, they busted that up and fired off the instigators.
When my brother was shopping for trucks in 2019 they quoted $65,000 for a mid sized model, forget the model name. Went to the city and got it $15,000 less. They charge whatever they can get. Yes, it was actually quoted more than a Silverado. :D
Yes, when the demand is up on everything the rebates and sales dwindle. It's simple. I know on a new machine I bought the cash rebate with no financing was 9k and went down a 1k and I bet next month they will be going down even more with demand really high and steel prices up
Toyota Tacoma's came down in price from $45,000 in 2006 to $34,000 in 2014. I priced them out both years. Got one in 2014, plan on run'n it at least 20 years.
When is the last time you made a new purchase on a big ticket item 🤔. Go buy a big boy Woodmizer Super 70 now and go look what they were last year on sale about 6.500 off at one point. 😂. None of the top tier stuff is on sale now except the lower end models
The Tacoma is the same truck as the Hilux sold around the rest of the world with a different body. I've seen them carry loads that would make a semi cringe.
I don't know what your smoking down there 😂
Log prices staying up wouldn't hurt my feelings. Here in the PNW, if you account for inflation they are still way below what they were in the late 80's and early 90's. My pops told me of multiple times the price for DF was over 1000/mbf. Right now we are just getting near that for a really high quality 12+ dia log.
Quote from: Walnut Beast on March 14, 2021, 06:53:21 PM
When is the last time you made a new purchase on a big ticket item . Go buy a big boy Woodmizer Super 70 now and go look what they were last year on sale about 6.500 off at one point. . None of the top tier stuff is on sale now except the lower end models
That is the same with looms, a bare bones jack loom is about $4000 new and can buy it used for $400. A Swedish 'vertical' countermarch is $7000, most the ones on sale are 'horizontal' countermarch and less desirable. A well built compudobby or Jaquard keep their value pretty good, those Jaquards are close to $30,000 and coming from Europe. :D These are hand looms, not industrial.
Go buy a potato harvester around here, $600,000. A big ash clearing saw is $1700, $500 more than 4 years ago.
Quote from: mike_belben on March 13, 2021, 03:32:10 PM
QuoteLot of pent up consumer demand out there.
Broke ash americans with pent up wants disguised as needs and a capital one card screaming "YOLOOOOOO!!!"
Theres gonna be some great yard sales.
All those exercise machines go first.
Another some what remote large bunch of lots 2200 acres with 19 kms of lake front in south west NS sold for $830 per acre. Not sure of the wood on this but most likely pine and hardwood.
Swampdonkey are you referring to the former Irving lands in digby county?
$18.52 + 9.75% sales tax for a "top choice" common 2x6x12' @ lowes today. Plywood is 40 to $52 a sheet.
I will saw any framing lumber from here on out. I bought most of the syp 2x6's for my current project at $5.92 in 2018/19
1/2 inch plywood
| EVERYDAY LOW PRICE | $48.15 |
| 11% MAIL-IN REBATE Good Through 3/20/21 | $5.30 |
FINAL PRICE$4285
each
steve_smiley steve_smiley for a chunk of $12.00 plywood.
Quote from: 2308500 on March 15, 2021, 06:35:49 PM
Another some what remote large bunch of lots 2200 acres with 19 kms of lake front in south west NS sold for $830 per acre. Not sure of the wood on this but most likely pine and hardwood.
Swampdonkey are you referring to the former Irving lands in digby county?
That was me, it is in Shelburne county on the south side of the 203 across from the Indian fields air strip, Clamshell lake, West Horseshoe lake.
Quote from: 2308500 on March 15, 2021, 06:35:49 PM
Swampdonkey are you referring to the former Irving lands in digby county?
No knowledge of those, but have seen large swaps in Maine and New Brunswick by several forest companies over the years. Also seen old mill ground around Bartholomew River, 2100 for $1M ($476/ac). It was all old clearcuts except riparian edge. A Fox from in Woodstock area played speculator for a while after buying it up for a song, trying to promote camp lots for sporting. That era has seen it's glory days end over 30 years ago. Still some sporting camps run, but nothing like my grandfather's day. Anyway this guy probably has some friends behind the conservation community, and he had tapped into the Ecological gifts program that uses the valuation of the land to reduce capital gains tax for up to 10 years and 0 tax. Lots of schemes out there if you know the angles. :D
news article on sale
Nature Conservancy needs M to protect Miramichi River tributary | CBC News (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nature-conservancy-needs-1m-to-protect-miramichi-river-tributary-1.3008592)
Ecological gifts program: overview - Canada.ca (https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-funding/ecological-gifts-program/overview.html)
Me, @rastis (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=42456) and another old 4wd friend were speakers against a 'conservationism' land grab effort in wendell mass right near quabbin reservoir..maybe around 2008 or so? We let them have it. Was just a scam of a different color and i think mostly it was to snatch some coveted land from an old timber company in a lefty academia woods hideout, That they had hiking trails all over and wanted to emminent domain.
The commune hippies and town council robber barrons up there were trying to pass a zoning reform to prevent any building of any sort on parcels under 10 acres and any 10 acre parcel had to have big road frontage and clustered structures at the road only... So essentially everyones 9 acre back yard was gonna be stolen from them, and anything under 10 was rezoned FC for forest conservation. unbuildable, unloggable, unfarmable.. worthless. The town had already completely banned gas stations.. Thats not enough conserving?
The BO was strong in the 'fragrance free zone' that the battle was held in, so that the smelly old moonbats wouldnt get their noses injured by the lethal injection chemicals they seem to think are in cologne, perfume and deoderant. Id say they were winning for most of it.. You could tell the town council had concocted it and this was just a legal formality before shafting the people who actually own land for the ones who dont. The council was quite pretentious and full of its own authority IMO. Precisely what i hate about the NE, this stuff makes me see red.
Nothing gets the country folk to see red like a tax hike, so i went there with my 3 minutes. Reminded the counsellors that the property values would plummet when 75% of the town's land mass would become unbuildable.. And asked who's taxes were they gonna raise to cover the certain budget shortfall to run the town? Told the crowd it was just a trick to devalue the land so some big financed eco organization could come make a lowball offer and snatch up all this suddenly useless property they had all paid taxes through the nose to have.
Im not sayin it was me but im proud to have been in the right place at the right time to help put the ruling cowards in check. The measure was defeated in a place i was certain it would pass. Youve got to stay ontop of these invaders. Theyll make you feel like you personally killed the indians while theyre trying to force you onto a section8 reservation, needing a handout. Ironic.
Quote from: mike_belben on March 16, 2021, 09:27:29 AM
Me, @rastis (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=42456) and another old 4wd friend were speakers against a 'conservationism' land grab effort in wendell mass right near quabbin reservoir..maybe around 2008 or so? We let them have it. Was just a scam of a different color and i think mostly it was to snatch some coveted land from an old timber company in a lefty academia woods hideout, That they had hiking trails all over and wanted to emminent domain.
The commune hippies and town council robber barrons up there were trying to pass a zoning reform to prevent any building of any sort on parcels under 10 acres and any 10 acre parcel had to have big road frontage and clustered structures at the road only... So essentially everyones 9 acre back yard was gonna be stolen from them, and anything under 10 was rezoned FC for forest conservation. unbuildable, unloggable, unfarmable.. worthless. The town had already completely banned gas stations.. Thats not enough conserving?
The BO was strong in the 'fragrance free zone' that the battle was held in, so that the smelly old moonbats wouldnt get their noses injured by the lethal injection chemicals they seem to think are in cologne, perfume and deoderant. Id say they were winning for most of it.. You could tell the town council had concocted it and this was just a legal formality before shafting the people who actually own land for the ones who dont. The council was quite pretentious and full of its own authority IMO. Precisely what i hate about the NE, this stuff makes me see red.
Nothing gets the country folk to see red like a tax hike, so i went there with my 3 minutes. Reminded the counsellors that the property values would plummet when 75% of the town's land mass would become unbuildable.. And asked who's taxes were they gonna raise to cover the certain budget shortfall to run the town? Told the crowd it was just a trick to devalue the land so some big financed eco organization could come make a lowball offer and snatch up all this suddenly useless property they had all paid taxes through the nose to have.
Im not sayin it was me but im proud to have been in the right place at the right time to help put the ruling cowards in check. The measure was defeated in a place i was certain it would pass. Youve got to stay ontop of these invaders. Theyll make you feel like you personally killed the indians while theyre trying to force you onto a section8 reservation, needing a handout. Ironic.
You see Mike the land owner is always a problem. In N.Y. when one dept. wants your place the send another dept. [whom I can't name, 3 initials , starts with D] in to start a process to save , that is get, your land.
Dont worry Doug i already got my $200 per day fines in mass. I know all about that game too.
Freedom is an illusion up there. Anyone who goes against the grain finds out pretty fast.
Looking at the lumber futures, the market appears to think that things are slowly getting back to normal. The futures are down 2.3% today and 14% over the last month. I'm guessing the impact will take a while to flow down to the consumers.
Do logging outfits or smaller sawmills actively keep on eye on the lumber market?
Quote from: mike_belben on March 16, 2021, 01:54:23 PM
Dont worry Doug i already got my $200 per day fines in mass. I know all about that game too.
Freedom is an illusion up there. Anyone who goes against the grain finds out pretty fast.
The only real requirement is that you be a tax payer.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/IMG953532.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1617795399)
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When I was quoted my workshop build, the contractor said the quote was good for just 7 days. Otherwise, he would need to re quote it because of rising lumber costs. This was the summer of 2020.
After he was done with the building, I needed framing lumber for interior framing. I found these 2x6x12’s SYP delivered to my driveway cheaper than I could by 2x4’s at the home center. This was through a CL wholesale seller??
I needed to frame some steps for the concrete pour. Might as well have used walnut from my woodpile. ::)
I was delivering semi loads of lumber to lowes/HD and also to mennonites. The receivers at HD i got to know pretty well.. And in say february of '20 or so, the receivers were saying idk why our buyers are ordering so much lumber.. We dont have anywhere else to put it. Guess which one has gone up 300% and crying shortage shortage shortage since then?
I bought syp 2x6x12 from the mennonite i delivered to a few months after i stopped driving.. And he said no shortage.. And had only gone up about 25% of pre-covid price. Yesterdays price at the mennonite roofer supply on a syp 1x4x14 furring strip was $6.. Up from $4 a few months back. Big box wants around $12 for a white pine strip in 12ft length.
Big box gouging.. Deny them your earnings when possible.
I hauled from mills and from treaters to retail. None of us ever had any closures or days off. Maybe the occasional germophobe stayed home until fired but i was a part of the lumber machinery and i watch close. What i witnessed all stayed running while the rumor mill said it was all shut down. Not only that.. When the "shortage" screaming was loudest and price was skyrocketing.. the freight bill was absolutely lowest. Down to 99cents a mile on lumber so i wasnt hauling it at the very end. Its around $1.50 a mile in cost to run interstate semis.
Now that flatbed spot market is higher than flatbed contract rates (meaning a truck on the fly costs more than a dedicated truck due to more flat freight than trucks at present) the lumber has to go even higher because the retailers arent forced by the market to absorb ANY of the rising cost from their new massive profit margin. They were gouging you when freight was cheap. Sales are still booming so they can tack the increased trucking cost ontop of the gouge and get away with it because of contstruction mania. Lumber is in a bubble. Statistically crashes come after bubble peaks. There is no higher rung once youre standing ontop of the ladder.. Just a fall.
Stop buying lumber America. The price will drop.
One other note on my little building project...
I bought and installed an exterior steel door in February from Lowe's. $290 something.
Yesterday I went back buy a second door. The sticker on the shelf read the same $290 something.
At checkout, the door rang up $440+
I pitched a fit, went back to the shelf and took a picture of the price tag. They gave me that price, but said they just have not got around to changing the stickers yet. The price jumped more than 30% in two months!
Two rumors going around - steel mills are withholding supply to drive up costs while recording record profits.
And there is some sort of foam shortage due to issues in Texas chemical plants.
Those two forces came down on my steel exterior door purchase yesterday.
$300 door on the right. $400 door on the left
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I cannot prove it, but my observations from having a pretty deep view in the big box supply chains as well as having other customers in the same market but not of a corporate nature who did not respond the same way at the same time as the publically traded enterprises did (like they would have to if the shortage tales were so true) leads me to speculate that what is happening is a simple case of board room self interest. Price setters and price takers. We will because we can.
Executives get to direct the entire corporation on what to order and what to say. The rumor mill will fill in any holes in the story on its own. Those in the executive wing are paid primarily in stock options in order to be taxed at a capital gains rate rather than a much higher W2 personal income rate so they have tremendous interest in a high stock price. Tell me.. Has it ever been more in their favor?
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'Mark up the lumber. People will believe its a shortage' is along the lines of how i think it played out. Completely normal human tendency. Theres a storm? Powers out? Buy every generator in the state and triple the price. It happens every single hurricane season. No conspiracy necessary. One person can concoct the scheme just fine.
Went to the local farm supply yesterday. As I was leaving I noticed a pile of very slightly used 8ft 2x4's by the incinerator. Threw them in the truck, 23 in total, maybe a half dozen nail holes in each. Was the packaging for a granary a crew had set up the day before. At nearly 9.00 ea it was 200.00 dollars in lumber for two minutes effort. Made up for the 80.00 gas to fill the truck.
Consider the wealth that a "crisis" generates for the price setters.. While half the country cant pay bills or get food until the next EBT or stimulus.
Just remember.. It has NEVER BEEN BETTER for the executives. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... These are what a tale of two cities looks like on graphing paper.
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A crash has to come. My only question is does a bloody revolution come with it.
Like you said Mike, money supply. Inflation by any other name. I was explaining it to my wife last night. Around here 30 years ago EVERYONE started to plant loblolly pine, and has been doing so ever since. Now we are flush with pine and logging crews that can pump out the wood. Great right? Not so fast, within a 20 mile, 5 County, radius my tiny operation is the 5th largest pine mill, and that's only assuming a dedicated hardwood mill is still buying pine like they were this winter. I don't need to know as I can have all the pine I want, delivered here, drop and hook trailers, with one phone call.
So the folks who will pay for the raw goods and will add value, don't have to compete, too much pine (money) on the market and not enough producers (mills, mfg, etc) who will add value, so instead that money is importing goods at a faster than ever rate and importers are seeing the increase in demand, so they raise prices to add capacity and the cycle gets faster and faster.
I agree something is going to break, and when it does, it will be bad. When your spinning round things come un-done....
I believe it was graham and dodd who posited that the more times a trend line is tested and proved, the more assured that there will be a definite future reversal. If its tested and holds twice the reversal can be minor. If its tested and holds say 5x.. The reversal, whenever it comes, will be that much more severe, and so on.
The reversal is hard to time but is always assured.
Welcome to Earth third rock from the sun....
couldn't help it. Just wondering how bad the next big economic poof is going to be...
Hard to say. Look up "megaphone pattern technical analysis" and you can plot out your own estimate fairly well. Timing it is the hard part. When china supported russia and assad in syria around late '15 or so, i thought for sure it was here. Curveballs abound.
My long term hunch is 2029. Be crazy if it doesnt happen before then but i have a feeling.
Lumber on the stock exchange thru Bloomburg was $1011.per mbf yesterday morning. The bubble can't get much higher.
Quote from: Ed_K on April 07, 2021, 08:04:10 PM
The bubble can't get much higher.
I said the same thing about local real estate prices, which I thought were already overpriced, this time last year. I was wrong and prices jumped 35-40% from March through December last year.
I can tell ya for a fact that lumber was never in short supply up here, the mills are stuffed, have never been empty. Sawing as fast as they ever have. Our local prices are driven by export and the $US. You can no longer go to your local sawmill and pick up lumber and they ain't bringing it to ya. Gotta deal with the middle man at the hardware store. :-X I can imagine they've been stiffed too many times and now letting the hardware guys get stiffed, thus jacked prices. :(
Looking at the numbers it has plateaued since mid Feb. It's going to fall by summers end, hard.
I never did buy this big demand thing. People travelling are not spending $40,000 on a trip, they are on maybe $4000 trips and if they are sitting in Fl instead of in their own living room, it's even less. Where's the $36,000 come from? COVID cheques? Bull durum. :D Construction here had been concrete and steel, hardware store expansions and a hotel and a couple ice block potato sheds with wooden truss work. That's it!
I seriously doubt lumber prices are really going to drop. OSB was 12 bucks last year and now it's 39 bucks. If and when it comes down probably in the 20s lower I doubt it. Everything is and has been going up look at steel prices
There is a video on TicTok showing the back of an HD store with rows of Lumber stacked halfway up the building in the parking lot.
It goes the length of the building. More Lumber outside than inside.
I think it will come in the form of an economic crash, not a cyclical correction, simply it all stops working again - shades of 1929. When? What sets it off? Who knows, but looking around and based on the un-requested SBA letter I got yesterday telling me they want to hand me money, it seems there is "appeasement of the masses" happening at every level and it's increasing in rate and frequency.
The pilot is going to fly this bird right to the scene of the crash, flaps up and full afterburner.
My son stopped in yesterday to borrow a tool and was wide-eyed. He said I just ran to HD to get a sheet of plywood for this roof we are replacing and I paid $56.00 for one single sheet of 5/8!
I said, do you recall when I told you 6 months ago about how lumber is going out of sight? "Yeah, but this is CRAZY!"
;D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
I dont think this is market correctable any longer, nor do i propose that the price will ever come down. I think the next market crash gets "solved" by conversion to full blown, irreversible socialism. The currency has to be continually increased just to pay for the interest on the national debt, nothing going to the principal.
Its been some people's plan for this country for a little over a hundred years now and the time seems to be drawing near.
Quote from: Walnut Beast on April 08, 2021, 06:42:06 AMOSB was 12 bucks last year and now it's 39 bucks
There is an alternative. Homes were sheeted and subfloored on the diagonal long before OSB was invented. 32bf of 1" lumber cost ~$11 to saw and yes, I am sawing it for new homes.
Just looking at things from a macro perspective I really don't see it happening in the next couple years, the crash that is. There may be a correction but not a crash.
Adjusted for inflation we are still getting paid less for DF logs than in the early 90's and late 80's. Cedar is more but that's a small market. Hemlock and other softwoods aren't very much. Alder had been higher and so has maple. This is for logs.
In the Seattle area, they have weathered the covid as well as anyone economically, there has been a housing shortage for the last 5 years that just isn't going away with current land use laws and geography, and people keep moving in and getting paid more all the time. Tons of jobs in western washington. Pretty sure this is the case for most of the west, PNW especially.
There are two things I could see reversing the current bull market. 1 is a war, a big one, china would be the most likely as it looks like they're slowly getting ready to invade taiwan. How the world reacts to that will be interesting. They're a huge importer of softwood and keep the domestic mill prices up.
2 would be financial crisis. I could see this with the fed raising interest rates, which I think is unlikely, but more likely would be a form of fraud either domestically or overseas which would have a ripple effect. Again china would be the perpetrator of fraud, no one really has access to honest statistics about their growth rate and the fundamentals of the major companies there since the CCP is always propping them up and bailing them out.
Panic buying with phony dollars. Stock brokerage houses report record high margin loan ratios. Stock prices at record high multiples to earnings and a government eager to raise taxes and stiffen environmental regulations. What could possibly go wrong to cause a panicked reversal?
Quote from: Magicman on April 08, 2021, 09:11:04 AM
Quote from: Walnut Beast on April 08, 2021, 06:42:06 AMOSB was 12 bucks last year and now it's 39 bucks
There is an alternative. Homes were sheeted and subfloored on the diagonal long before OSB was invented. 32bf of 1" lumber cost ~$11 to saw and yes, I am sawing it for new homes.
I live in a 150 year old farm house that is sheaved in diagonal rough cut lumber. It is just as solid as the day it was built (with a few floor sags here and there) The New Brunswick building code was changed here recently outlawing the construction of any building (even a baby barn) of rough cut, ungraded lumber. Fortunately I live in an area zoned agricultural that has accessory buildings exempt from the code (so far) There is one extremely wealthy family that owns all the commercial saw mills in Canada's three Maritime provinces.
I'll give you one guess as to who our Provincial Premier was employed by for 30 years before he went into politics.
For most of us grading is the issue for structural lumber, that is becoming more cost effective against the current prices. It has been a price spike or two ago but at that time I figured when sheathing hit $1/sf it was cost effective with labor to do board sheathing. Run it diagonal for triangularized bracing, 5/8 min thickness, 8" max width. There are more caveats as spans and loads increase. Board sheathing is superior in bracing to plywood.
Grading, the original language stated that it was not the intent to disadvantage any mill. I can dig it up but I believe it is in DOC PS-20 or the enabling legislation, been awhile. There is an ever increasing need to revisit that. Such as the price for transient grading being the the same for a small mill as what the big mills pay. We are currently in a situation where the government mandate has destroyed a free market in the commodity and the big players are gaming that system. We are way outside of the stated original intent. Obviously if they want to use the same third party oversight system that could marginally drive up the prices the big mills have to pay to level the costs but that would still be a huge decrease in what the little mills have to pay currently.
Quote from: stavebuyer on April 08, 2021, 02:52:31 PM
Panic buying with phony dollars. Stock brokerage houses report record high margin loan ratios. Stock prices at record high multiples to earnings and a government eager to raise taxes and stiffen environmental regulations. What could possibly go wrong to cause a panicked reversal?
The dollars are real and if you'd like to give me any phony ones that can buy things I'll take em.
R.E. is a regional market and mine is strong and will keep going strong. Some of the biggest and most recession proof businesses are located in the PNW and many of those jobs are moving to come to work once per week so the outlying rural communities are seeing prices rise for houses but not wages. I will be one of the locals to sell out in a couple years after I've made a huge profit.
I am worried about the taxes an enviro regs too, but I believe it won't affect logging too much out here as we already have the toughest in the nation. Taxes would be the major player but they'll have to push that through in the next 1.5 yrs as Dems will most likely lose the house or senate in the next midterms and gop won't raise taxes. Locally WA could enact an income tax and that would very much hurt the local economy.
Quote from: Don P on April 08, 2021, 07:35:39 PM
For most of us grading is the issue for structural lumber, that is becoming more cost effective against the current prices. It has been a price spike or two ago but at that time I figured when sheathing hit $1/sf it was cost effective with labor to do board sheathing. Run it diagonal for triangularized bracing, 5/8 min thickness, 8" max width. There are more caveats as spans and loads increase. Board sheathing is superior in bracing to plywood.
Grading, the original language stated that it was not the intent to disadvantage any mill. I can dig it up but I believe it is in DOC PS-20 or the enabling legislation, been awhile. There is an ever increasing need to revisit that. Such as the price for transient grading being the the same for a small mill as what the big mills pay. We are currently in a situation where the government mandate has destroyed a free market in the commodity and the big players are gaming that system. We are way outside of the stated original intent. Obviously if they want to use the same third party oversight system that could marginally drive up the prices the big mills have to pay to level the costs but that would still be a huge decrease in what the little mills have to pay currently.
Does the board sheathing have to be graded?
Quote from: quilbilly on April 08, 2021, 08:01:43 PMI am worried about the taxes an enviro regs too, but I believe it won't affect logging too much out here as we already have the toughest in the nation. Taxes would be the major player but they'll have to push that through in the next 1.5 yrs as Dems will most likely lose the house or senate in the next midterms and gop won't raise taxes
Do you not remember the Spotted Owl and "Read my lips, no new taxes"? If the GOP inherits this mess the cake is already baked for them.
If you buy into partisanship they already have your eyes off the ball, they are dividing the spoils, you, amongst themselves.
NW, THAT, is a very good question and is going to lead to a rant :D.
On another thread I mentioned how rights are eroded if we aren't vigilant, here we go.
This is the stock grading requirement at the head of the floor, wall and roof framing chapters of the code.
2012;
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/2012gradecite.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1617933242)
Notice the slight rewording in 2015 (codes run on a 3 year cycle)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/gradecite.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1617933380)
2012 and before- "Dimension lumber" is 2x-4x thick material, framing lumber. 2015 and on- "Sawn lumber", they just got your sheathing.
Take a look at the actual structural requirement for floor sheathing (notice the footnotes)... for 16 and 24" joist spacing none, cover it with wood of presumably any, or no grade (that table will change ;)). At 48" joist spacing jump up to 1-1/2" thick and bending of 675psi, stiffness of 1.1 . That is species variable, #1 EWP or #3 SYP. Roof and wall sheathing has much lower requirements.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/floorsheathing.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1617933839)
Well if they want to play fast and loose, it's not sawn lumber, I hand split it then sanded it smoothish - prove otherwise, now watch out for that nasty hole right behind you....
Quote from: Southside on April 08, 2021, 10:06:26 PM
Quote from: quilbilly on April 08, 2021, 08:01:43 PMI am worried about the taxes an enviro regs too, but I believe it won't affect logging too much out here as we already have the toughest in the nation. Taxes would be the major player but they'll have to push that through in the next 1.5 yrs as Dems will most likely lose the house or senate in the next midterms and gop won't raise taxes
Do you not remember the Spotted Owl and "Read my lips, no new taxes"? If the GOP inherits this mess the cake is already baked for them.
Sure the logging industry was changed forever out here bc of it, and things have gotten worse. That being said for the past decade or so things have eased up substantially and in at least one case moved the other direction with the easing of logging near eagle nests.
Also when HW raised taxes it was a half of the reason he lost the re-election, they aren't gonna do that again
Yesterdays stockmarket price for 1 thousand Board feet has gone up to $1070. On the grade stamp, it would be nice to get the state gov to make legislation where a person or persons could go around to the small sawmills and grade the lumber. Just have to get all the sawmills to get together and fight for it.
Quote from: Don P on April 08, 2021, 10:19:13 PM
If you buy into partisanship they already have your eyes off the ball, they are dividing the spoils, you, amongst themselves.
NW, THAT, is a very good question and is going to lead to a rant :D.
On another thread I mentioned how rights are eroded if we aren't vigilant, here we go.
This is the stock grading requirement at the head of the floor, wall and roof framing chapters of the code.
2012;
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/2012gradecite.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1617933242)
Notice the slight rewording in 2015 (codes run on a 3 year cycle)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/gradecite.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1617933380)
2012 and before- "Dimension lumber" is 2x-4x thick material, framing lumber. 2015 and on- "Sawn lumber", they just got your sheathing.
Take a look at the actual structural requirement for floor sheathing (notice the footnotes)... for 16 and 24" joist spacing none, cover it with wood of presumably any, or no grade (that table will change ;)). At 48" joist spacing jump up to 1-1/2" thick and bending of 675psi, stiffness of 1.1 . That is species variable, #1 EWP or #3 SYP. Roof and wall sheathing has much lower requirements.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/floorsheathing.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1617933839)
So up until 2012 we could use rough sawn lumber for sheathing but now..it has to be graded/stamped. Huh. For a $300-500 fee it would seem to make sense to use rough sawn lumber instead of plywood. But maybe labor on sheathing eats up that advantage?
Quote from: quilbilly on April 08, 2021, 08:01:43 PM
Quote from: stavebuyer on April 08, 2021, 02:52:31 PM
Panic buying with phony dollars. Stock brokerage houses report record high margin loan ratios. Stock prices at record high multiples to earnings and a government eager to raise taxes and stiffen environmental regulations. What could possibly go wrong to cause a panicked reversal?
The dollars are real and if you'd like to give me any phony ones that can buy things I'll take em.
R.E. is a regional market and mine is strong and will keep going strong. Some of the biggest and most recession proof businesses are located in the PNW and many of those jobs are moving to come to work once per week so the outlying rural communities are seeing prices rise for houses but not wages. I will be one of the locals to sell out in a couple years after I've made a huge profit.
I am worried about the taxes an enviro regs too, but I believe it won't affect logging too much out here as we already have the toughest in the nation. Taxes would be the major player but they'll have to push that through in the next 1.5 yrs as Dems will most likely lose the house or senate in the next midterms and gop won't raise taxes. Locally WA could enact an income tax and that would very much hurt the local economy.
Out of curiosity and no need to answer if it makes you uncomfortable but where will you move to after you sell your place. The covid stuff dramatically increased rural land prices in northern VA, our house is probably worth twice what we paid for it 4 years ago if we'd get the roof done with the Solar Roof, more if we'd build our fancy barn.
Yes, labor eats into the equation majorly. For self work not a big deal, if hired help it eats into the difference fast.
To change the grading rules at the national level would take an act of congress. The ICC (International Cash Cow) that writes code is very firmly entrenched. Changing those rules at the state level has been effective in many states where they have some form of "Native Lumber Law" exemption written into the state building code as they adopt the ICC model code. One thing that might be helpful to other states is a record from those native lumber states of how many building failures have been related to ungraded lumber. Very few I suspect.
The part of our house that is the 1870 ish part stands better and was built better than all the 20th century additions. All rough cut diagonally sheathed full dimension framing .... I feel all the I joist, osb stuff I stuck around the out side adding on to it 12 years ago is marginal at best compared to how the pioneers built it first. Its all good to code and grade stamped puts off a good facade. Makes me wish I had my mill earlier..My local yard had 1/2 OSB at 53.00$ earlier in the week.
Quote from: nativewolf on April 09, 2021, 06:43:24 AM
Quote from: quilbilly on April 08, 2021, 08:01:43 PM
Quote from: stavebuyer on April 08, 2021, 02:52:31 PM
Panic buying with phony dollars. Stock brokerage houses report record high margin loan ratios. Stock prices at record high multiples to earnings and a government eager to raise taxes and stiffen environmental regulations. What could possibly go wrong to cause a panicked reversal?
The dollars are real and if you'd like to give me any phony ones that can buy things I'll take em.
R.E. is a regional market and mine is strong and will keep going strong. Some of the biggest and most recession proof businesses are located in the PNW and many of those jobs are moving to come to work once per week so the outlying rural communities are seeing prices rise for houses but not wages. I will be one of the locals to sell out in a couple years after I've made a huge profit.
I am worried about the taxes an enviro regs too, but I believe it won't affect logging too much out here as we already have the toughest in the nation. Taxes would be the major player but they'll have to push that through in the next 1.5 yrs as Dems will most likely lose the house or senate in the next midterms and gop won't raise taxes. Locally WA could enact an income tax and that would very much hurt the local economy.
Out of curiosity and no need to answer if it makes you uncomfortable but where will you move to after you sell your place. The covid stuff dramatically increased rural land prices in northern VA, our house is probably worth twice what we paid for it 4 years ago if we'd get the roof done with the Solar Roof, more if we'd build our fancy barn.
My mom lives alone in a 4500 sq ft house on 30 acres with an extra septic. I could build a house there. Most likely I'd move in 2 ish years to a cheaper place. I border the forest circus and live about 10 miles from the eastern entrance to olympic national park. In other words an area that people who are rich buy vacation homes in. I could move closer to my in-laws also and probably get 500sq ft more house for the same price or less than what I'm selling our place for.
There are other cheap areas in WA, comparatively, and they log in most of them. I could upgrade our equipment and still come out ahead on cash moving east. I just wouldn't be able to live on the saltwater like I do now.
What I haven't been able to understand is why the Wisconsin and Michigan white pine won't certify for buildings. White pine built a lot of buildings in this state and many others for years when they logged this area off 150 years ago. There's 1000's of big white pines standing around and will stand until they blow over or die and rot because there's not much market for them. But junky jack pine they saw into stud lumber. Sure would be nice to have a stud market for them big boys.
Will it if you take the course and grade it yourself? the native lumber law course in wis. is not that hard and the cost is very reasonable.
Out here, WA, the course is relatively cheap and worth doing if you'll be milling your own. The state also changed the laws on ungraded wood recently.
https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?topic=95418.msg1471206#msg1471206
Not perfect but It can work
My lowes is pretty much nothing but white pine 2x studs. I hafta go to ACE or mennonites for SYP.
I seriously doubt that Mike, what does the stamp say? I suspect its SPF. (jack, lodgepole, & red pine (in SPFs))
Cub, why won't white pine "certify"? It has low design values and can be a grading problem but within its limits it is fine. It is listed in the National Design Specification for wood construction.
You know I'm not sure why it won't certify. I've just been told by numerous people that nobody will buy it because it won't certify for studs. Maybe because it's doesn't grade the greatest so they don't mess around with all the waste. There is a place that will buy it but the trucking kills any kind of profit. I am not sure what they do with it though. So most of any white pine that does get cut around here goes for pulp. Anything bigger than pulp size gets left to stand.
Good catch Don.. I keep price records by image for a datestamp.. Top choice KD "WhiteWood"
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/0315211526_Film3.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1618002539)
It sounds like some sort of chicken nugget.. That timeless assortment of ground up lips, buttholes and boiled pot sediment pressed into a food brick.
Given other choices I don't use much EWP for framing and have never seen it sold in any building supply for framing use, it would be a local niche. I've used a bunch from kit log home companies in WI and probably the vast majority in 1x6 paneling, which yours from up north is superior to ours. There's a log home company at the end of our road here that goes through a lot and another in the next county over. When furniture was booming here they also used a lot in their lower priced lines.
Lowes was sticking euro wood in the SPF bins and caught some grief for it. I guess calling it all whitewood is a workaround. Kind of like catch of the day.
While we've been kicking grade stuff around. People knock the grade of studs, they are a unique grade. A stick marked "stud" is for vertical use as a column only... a stud. You should never see a stud stamp on a horizontal, bending, member. It is a #3 with #1 edge restrictions. As a column it doesn't need high bending strength so larger knots and defects are allowed but it does need better edges than a #3 so you can attach sheet goods to it.
When I hear whitewood I can't help think aspen or tulip. E. white pine for framing members is a local use thing in my experience and would be full dimension and probably rough.
White wood out here is the true firs and hemlock.
Good to know about vertical only for stud grades don. Thanks as always for sharing.
The Potlatch stud mill manager told me they can't stamp white pine for studs. They still buy it and run it through the mill, but those 2x4's go for pallet stock.
Quote from: barbender on April 10, 2021, 12:52:54 AM
The Potlatch stud mill manager told me they can't stamp white pine for studs. They still buy it and run it through the mill, but those 2x4's go for pallet stock.
It's not as strong as the normal SPF or SYP etc grade woods. Likely that's the grade they sell. There would be a separate grade (and building specs) for EWP, but they aren't interested in that because no one wants it. Who want's to build with EWP when you have to use 50% more to get the same strength. Plenty strong enough for pallets, so that's where it goes, along with the other wood that doesn't meet a more valuable "grade".
You could Engineer a building for balsa wood if you were keen enough. Doesn't mean it's actually practical / economic.
"Whitewood" isn't a grade as such.
It has 2 requirements. It's Wood, and it's mostly White. Being cheap is a bonus.
Need "some wood" to build a shelf or non structural wall? Doesn't really matter if it's yellow poplar / pine / birch / fir etc. Any of them will do the job. Go back next month and it might be a completely different species, but for the intended use, it doesn't actually matter.
Well $20 out the door for a 12ft two by six blows the cheap part.
Can I interest you in some Tasmanian Blackwood 6x2 then?
With currency conversions I figure about $70 US each.
Hmm. If i import a bunch of it, will that make me important?
If you can market it as Australasian Koa you might be able to make few $$
Quote from: Cub on April 09, 2021, 05:11:05 PM
You know I’m not sure why it won’t certify. I’ve just been told by numerous people that nobody will buy it because it won’t certify for studs. Maybe because it’s doesn’t grade the greatest so they don’t mess around with all the waste. There is a place that will buy it but the trucking kills any kind of profit. I am not sure what they do with it though. So most of any white pine that does get cut around here goes for pulp. Anything bigger than pulp size gets left to stand.
White pine up here is 99% interior finished stuff for trim, cabinets, shelves, T&G panel boards or wanes coating, porch ceiling. Irving supplies all Homedepot.ca
I guess this is a decent place to put it since weve touched on economy here often.
I just got a tip today from a pillar of our little ag town that deere is pulling out of the small dealerships in our area and going to strictly run out of their deere only places.. I think knoxville being their closest for us. The person is the mother of a deere peddling multi brand store owner in town who was recently informed by corporate.
I suspect that signifies deere sees a change on the horizon.
I don't get the problem with white pine for framing rafters and joists in rough cut full 2" dimension.
Keep the knots small of course, #2 range.
Probably equivalent in strength to commercial 1 1/2" fir/spruce .
I've used a bunch of it , never seen it break with 3' snow on roofs.
Full 2 x 6 rafters 12' long 2' centers 3' deep snow still standing 25 yrs later.
Maybe just for people who don't require inspection for everything they build ?
Heck, my garage has 16' full 2x6 2' centers pine rafters sawn on site still
holding their own 15 years later.
I don't know Mike. Deere is an odd company, they make the independent dealers pay monthly for every JD image they use, be it on a vehicle, website, side of the building, pay every month. Look at service trucks from independent dealers, they will have a big green and yellow tractor in the logo - but nothing that says John Deere, of the model number, it's all scrubbed out - gets them away from the monthly payment.
Who knows with them.
All the independent Deere dealers got bought or sold to Corp. in parts of OH WV KY, can't remember what they cll them now.
I wonder what theyre up to.
Higher prices from what I'm told (not a Deere guy). ::) They are Ag-Pro companies, bought all the independents.
Lumber prices 2021 chart: Price of lumber up 193%?and about to rise higher as some call it a short squeeze | Fortune (https://fortune.com/2021/04/13/lumber-prices-2021-chart-price-of-lumber-futures-short-squeeze-home-sales-cost-april-2021-latest-update/)
Train loads of lumber from Canada stacked up high and wide on this side of the
Canadian border. The video is by a Vermont building contractor.
TRAIN LOADS OF LUMBER JUST STACKED UP !!!! Why - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iY3zjaeof8w)
price setters have absolutely no reason not to sell as much product as possible at the highest price that the -must-have-it-now mass consumerist morons will pay.
Can't blame me I'm not buying any lumber and I wanted to put on a
shed roof 14 x 28 attached to the garage , small project really but no, just can't do it
unless I can find some rough sawn for reasonable money.
Quote from: mike_belben on April 18, 2021, 09:58:06 PM
price setters have absolutely no reason not to sell as much product as possible at the highest price that the -must-have-it-now mass consumerist morons will pay.
Tariffs still in place?
no idea. ive already shared my story about the big box buyers ordering more lumber than there was room to store while crying shortage to jack the price during my time in the truck. it was domestic wood so tarrif was not likely a factor. there was an ordering frenzy, but no reduction of lumber or truck volume or staff at the treating plant. i was buddies with most of the loaders and asked about it often.
As far as I know no tariffs on Irving. I won't get into why that is.
Same reason Irving agreed to sell their shavings to Lincoln the next to the last time they went bankrupt even though Lincoln owed them a pile of money, and the director of FAME was suddenly replaced when they wanted a personal guarantee. This last time I think they stiffed the state for what $5 million. Augusta is only the starting point.
SYP dimensional went up to my little building supply $300/mbf last night, that's an unheard of jump.
IEN reports a hand sanitizer surplus. I suspect when woodmizer ships the mill orders it's taking today, the same will be said of lumber.
Even bloomberg news is reporting on the fact that lumber is very high but log prices have not moved. Now this is common knowledge all across the world; who would have thunk that log price vs lumber price would make financial news headlines.
Quote from: nativewolf on April 20, 2021, 07:49:47 AM
Even bloomberg news is reporting on the fact that lumber is very high but log prices have not moved. Now this is common knowledge all across the world; who would have thunk that log price vs lumber price would make financial news headlines.
And it all started with this thread! But seriously, numerous major news articles on lumber pricing, continuing every day.
IEN reports a hand sanitizer
NYS distributed gallons of it to farms all across the state, most of it sets covered in dust unopened.
Lumber on the N.Y. stock exchange is at $1158.60 per 1k bf. It was up over $1250. last week. But I will never say it can't go up again ;D .
Quote from: Skip on April 12, 2021, 07:59:53 AM
All the independent Deere dealers got bought or sold to Corp. in parts of OH WV KY, can't remember what they cll them now.
Same thing happened here in NH, parts of Maine, and Mass. United AG and Turf is the name now. We've got one small JD Ag dealer Left in my part of NH. They now got ALL of the farms JD parts business we used to buy from a few dealers. Hate to see it happen.
So, who is getting rich off the high lumber prices ? No one on here probably.
Here is someone attempting to shed light on the subject.
Who is Getting Rich Off of High Lumber Prices?!? - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKdnSPZfI4k)
One large mill here raised pine by $2 a ton. So the logger gets a 4% increase lol
Well that is a start! Sadly...I am serious. But 4% a month will get you somewhere.
Inflation! Let's say that it's, eh, 10%. Well, shouldn't everything, including pay, go up 10%. That being the case, what does inflation REALLY get us (rhetorical)?
I'll stop before I get into restricted territory.
Went to TSC yesterday to get a few things, actually don't get to town very often. Right at the end of the cash registers are their display of Teddy sodas, have been $1.00 for as long as I have known. Yesterday they were $1.19 - so a 19% price increase. Nope - no inflation around.
Walmart starting fluid is up about 300% since around 2007.
Listening to Glen Beck. Things don't make sense 🤔. People getting a loan and building a house with the high costs. When markets correct your upside down on value. Index was 208 in the bubble years and it's 245 now
thats a loss of fiscal sanity that seems to be the new normal brought about by widespread free money injections, easy bankruptcy, YOLO culture, impulsive behavior etc etc. people have grown comfortable with bubbles as long as it's laugh now cry later and im crossing wants off my "bucket list."
What doesn't make any sense is the millions of mortgages that have been in forebearance for over a year, are due 6/30/21, yet the same banks that have not been paid for those are lending money like there is no tomorrow.
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 11:17:47 AM
What doesn't make any sense is the millions of mortgages that have been in forebearance for over a year, are due 6/30/21, yet the same banks that have not been paid for those are lending money like there is no tomorrow.
Indeed, maybe this has nothing to do with young people and more to do with some creative accounting between the Federal Reserve and the IRS.
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 11:17:47 AM
What doesn't make any sense is the millions of mortgages that have been in forebearance for over a year, are due 6/30/21, yet the same banks that have not been paid for those are lending money like there is no tomorrow.
Borrowers are customers the business is lending money, if your last customer didn't pay their bill all the more reason to find more/different customers.
I imagine the banks will do as they always have for about 40 years now, operate as if they have a government guarantee. I have seen a lot of 3 year term farmers in the last 20 years first thing they always do 99% of the time is build that new $300,000 house. Don't think so? I'll take you for a ride and show ya. ;D
Quote from: Hilltop366 on April 26, 2021, 01:08:57 PM
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 11:17:47 AM
What doesn't make any sense is the millions of mortgages that have been in forebearance for over a year, are due 6/30/21, yet the same banks that have not been paid for those are lending money like there is no tomorrow.
Borrowers are customers the business is lending money, if your last customer didn't pay their bill all the more reason to find more/different customers.
Yes - but when you know the supply is about to explode, then you realize the price will drop, meaning all the loans you just put out are instantly under water, so more will go bad as people walk away. Risk goes up, the banks balance sheet drops.
Unless you somehow know the supply is not about to explode because the can is going to get kicked down the road again. At what point do the folks who are paying decide not to pay if that's the case?
in my lifetime it appears we have established a trend of banks regaining solvency by federal decree whenever "necessary" for the 'common good.'
I'm putting off a home build for a year. One less project for the plumber, electrician, roofer, etc. this summer. Everyone suffers so commodities brokers can make money.
This is 100% wall street playing the commodities markets. We're all held ransom to it because any rules against it are regulations and regulations are bad because of reasons.
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 02:42:00 PM
Quote from: Hilltop366 on April 26, 2021, 01:08:57 PM
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 11:17:47 AM
What doesn't make any sense is the millions of mortgages that have been in forebearance for over a year, are due 6/30/21, yet the same banks that have not been paid for those are lending money like there is no tomorrow.
Borrowers are customers the business is lending money, if your last customer didn't pay their bill all the more reason to find more/different customers.
Yes - but when you know the supply is about to explode, then you realize the price will drop, meaning all the loans you just put out are instantly under water, so more will go bad as people walk away. Risk goes up, the banks balance sheet drops.
Unless you somehow know the supply is not about to explode because the can is going to get kicked down the road again. At what point do the folks who are paying decide not to pay if that's the case?
Apparently they are willing to take the risk.
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 02:42:00 PM
Quote from: Hilltop366 on April 26, 2021, 01:08:57 PM
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 11:17:47 AM
What doesn't make any sense is the millions of mortgages that have been in forebearance for over a year, are due 6/30/21, yet the same banks that have not been paid for those are lending money like there is no tomorrow.
Borrowers are customers the business is lending money, if your last customer didn't pay their bill all the more reason to find more/different customers.
Yes - but when you know the supply is about to explode, then you realize the price will drop, meaning all the loans you just put out are instantly under water, so more will go bad as people walk away. Risk goes up, the banks balance sheet drops.
Unless you somehow know the supply is not about to explode because the can is going to get kicked down the road again. At what point do the folks who are paying decide not to pay if that's the case?
What's the alternative? To just stop selling/building houses?
They didn't lend in '08
But they sure did leading up to it. (slow learners?)
According to stats new home sales peaked in 05 started dropping in 06 hit a low in 11, 2020 was up to about 2007 level.
Lending standards are also much more stringent today.
It seems they were, but are not any longer.
If anyone is familiar with tiktok there is a guy on there asking the same question and has 38000 responses. His rant today was he still doesn't have an answer as to why.
Gotta be some collusion somewhere.
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 09:59:51 PM
It seems they were, but are not any longer.
What changed? At the very least, no one is giving out ninja loans anymore.
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 11:17:47 AM
What doesn't make any sense is the millions of mortgages that have been in forebearance for over a year, are due 6/30/21, yet the same banks that have not been paid for those are lending money like there is no tomorrow.
Nearly every bank has moved the forbearance to deferment. In fact most of the big ones, BOA, Morgan/chase, Wells Fargo, etc just went ahead and offered deferment to begin with for almost everyone. Some hold outs, PNC was one, are now facing up to the fact that they need to let a certain amount of people just move to deferment as well.
The deferment process moves this past years 12 months to the end of the loan, a 30 year loan becomes a 31 year loan. 7 years left becomes 8 years left, etc.
I went through this with PNC recently and reportedly they are about the worse to work with but in the end of the day they just did the deferment.
Quote from: quilbilly on April 26, 2021, 10:48:42 PM
Quote from: Southside on April 26, 2021, 09:59:51 PM
It seems they were, but are not any longer.
What changed? At the very least, no one is giving out ninja loans anymore.
Nothing really, people are willing to sign up and banks deferred a lot of loan payments and the loan bond holders were told to accept it and they have. In this particular case it is better for everyone to just treat the last year as an exception. Also, the fact that in many areas adjacent to large urban areas there has been a run up in real estate and this has helped. If your home has appreciated 30% in 2 years the banks feels better about doing some deferment as they have less perceived risk.
Put another way, if the average US home is worth $300k (slightly less than this but it keeps it simple) and the average home increased by 20% that is $60,000 worth of equity and there are 80,000,000 homes in the USA. Do the math, over 4 trillion in equity. Say that consumers access a small fraction of that equity. That is a huge spending boost.
Got an envelope in the mail yesterday from one of our suppliers outside of the sawmill side of the business. Their raw material costs have gone up 30% over the past year so they are passing along some of the increase. I am adjusting my pricing while typing this.
There is no true boost in equity, inflation has already gobbled it up and then some.
Poof, ......add socio/economic turmoil the new equity will be gone but the higher prices will remain..
Quote from: Southside on April 27, 2021, 07:58:35 AM
Got an envelope in the mail yesterday from one of our suppliers outside of the sawmill side of the business. Their raw material costs have gone up 30% over the past year so they are passing along some of the increase. I am adjusting my pricing while typing this.
There is no true boost in equity, inflation has already gobbled it up and then some.
Just curious, but what are the raw materials?
$8.63 for 2x4x8's yesterday at big blue.
It is only an "expert" with their magical accounting numbers who can tell you business is up, when any layman knows business doesnt go up when business is closed for a pandemic.
Stability has been removed from the business cycle. The booms we are witnessing are a result of business trying to regain its composure from massive disruption. It could appear to subside in time but i dont think it really will. I believe boom/bust is now normalized.
Higher volumes required to cover expense... At thinner margins. higher revenues to achieve break even on ever higher startup costs. the liability and wages continually climb, and less workers showing up to do it. Keep passing the expense down and down and down to the consumer, who doesnt actually have any real money, but is swimming in credit.
Its a heavier train, running faster and faster on a weakening track that the inspectors are swearing is sound while the enemy keeps removing ties in the night that the inspector keep looking past because its friday and theyre 4 months to retirement.
Only in an upside down world can one call debt an asset, and even somehow manage to sell their debt to others as some form of dystopian investment vehicle.
Satan likes centennials, and 2029 is looking to me like a doozy that i intend to sit out.
Quote from: Raider Bill on April 27, 2021, 08:30:46 AM
$8.63 for 2x4x8's yesterday at big blue.
Maybe the 2x4 is going to be like gas prices, everyone complaining about the $4 2x4, but after the $9 2x4 the $6 2x4 don't look so bad. ::)
My wife showed me a FB picture yesterday, it was a red hat that said "Make plywood cheap again"
Quote from: SpaceBus on April 27, 2021, 08:12:17 AM
Quote from: Southside on April 27, 2021, 07:58:35 AM
Got an envelope in the mail yesterday from one of our suppliers outside of the sawmill side of the business. Their raw material costs have gone up 30% over the past year so they are passing along some of the increase. I am adjusting my pricing while typing this.
There is no true boost in equity, inflation has already gobbled it up and then some.
Just curious, but what are the raw materials?
PVC for fence posts.
Quote from: mike_belben on April 27, 2021, 09:30:37 AM
It is only an "expert" with their magical accounting numbers who can tell you business is up, when any layman knows business doesnt go up when business is closed for a pandemic.
Stability has been removed from the business cycle. The booms we are witnessing are a result of business trying to regain its composure from massive disruption. It could appear to subside in time but i dont think it really will. I believe boom/bust is now normalized.
Higher volumes required to cover expense... At thinner margins. higher revenues to achieve break even on ever higher startup costs. the liability and wages continually climb, and less workers showing up to do it. Keep passing the expense down and down and down to the consumer, who doesnt actually have any real money, but is swimming in credit.
Its a heavier train, running faster and faster on a weakening track that the inspectors are swearing is sound while the enemy keeps removing ties in the night that the inspector keep looking past because its friday and theyre 4 months to retirement.
Only in an upside down world can one call debt an asset, and even somehow manage to sell their debt to others as some form of dystopian investment vehicle.
Satan likes centennials, and 2029 is looking to me like a doozy that i intend to sit out.
The majority of businesses closed for the pandemic were restaurants, arts, and gyms. Business that relied on social contact are having problems. Home Despot and the rest of the box stores are having no problems. Contractors in my area are booked out forever, and those across the country are having boom economies. Many businesses took a huge hit, but pharmaceutical companies, companies related to construction/renovation, and a few other sectors are having unprecedented growth. Sure, it's not a good situation, but it's not like all businesses closed or had negative growth.
I talked to the owner at a small lumberyard yesterday, he said that he just got word that steel siding and roofing are going to be become hard to get.
Quote from: barbender on April 27, 2021, 11:37:22 AM
I talked to the owner at a small lumberyard yesterday, he said that he just got word that steel siding and roofing are going to be become hard to get.
30 percent plus price increase coming for us here in nova scotia next week. wow
Maple supplier annual spring flyer says anything plastic is going up uP UP. Metal supplies already have and will continue. Talks with friends, family, strangers at the dentist and store are about who was not raised price yet on XYZ goods.
Finally remembered the other day while reading this thread that this common topic mirrors exactly something I read from a Brazilian talking about growing up during their hyperinflation period. Daily conversation shifted from family and politics to these types of topics. Strap in and hold on, we wish the best of luck to all in weathering the storm :P
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/59695/73E7033B-5785-47E1-BEF4-D96770E40FBF.jpeg?easyrotate_cache=1619551155)
How much higher will it go
Argentina and ukraine really havent recovered from their hyperish inflations. Reading of those situations is what i designed my shtf plan around. Lots and lots of durable stuff bought dirt cheap.
In a true hyper inflation you get your check and race to the market to turn it into ANYTHING that you can barter with because by monday itll double. Theres also a huge premium on money exchange when a currency is fully shunned by the world because vendors will only accept other currencies. So then youve gotta pay a huge fee to exchange your crashing currency for the stable one.
I just bought a parts truck for 500 rounds of tulammo steel case .223 that sure didnt cost me much. My 6cyl 500amp stick welder was bought with a .380acp and i got $75 cash back. My old F250 came from a revolver trade that i had $400 in. My welding gas cylinder was from a .22 rifle.
The crazier it gets the more guns n ammo are worth.
How will you use the welder and truck if hyperinflation strikes? It's not like gas station attendants and powerplant techs will stay at work for nothing.
Personally I think it has more to do with 2 things:
1) the govt have propped up the economy. obviously dont want to debate right/wrong on that one but it put $$ into the hands of people and businesses
2) marginal propensity to consume, the economic principal, states that if people cant buy $1000 NFL tickets they will spend it on things like house renos, same with vacations etc
Here in Canada prices are equally insane. Bought $1000 of steel to weld up a trailer from a local supplier and he told me his prices have gone up double since Oct 2020. Also said it will become hard to get this summer due to demand.
Lumber is a commodity, like fuel, and there is someone making big $$ on these higher prices indeed.
Quote from: SpaceBus on April 28, 2021, 07:14:34 AM
How will you use the welder and truck if hyperinflation strikes? It's not like gas station attendants and powerplant techs will stay at work for nothing.
youre missing the point.
the welder and truck and equipment dont get worth less, they stay the same as the paper plummets.. the junk just continually commands more and more paper.. but it holds its value in junk for junk trades. it is only the paper money that shrinks. the junk is like a CD account thats paying real interest. my dozer was $10k around 2017 or 18.. comparables are 15-18k now and i use it all the time so its not just tied up money like a savings account that is eaten alive by inflation. junk has payed me thousands and thousands in dividends while the asset has still appreciated due to inflation despite me using them up.
i bought many guns at half price as an employee. i traded up on those guns when guns were in high demand.
can i weld with a gun? can i drive a gun? no. id have to convert guns back to paper now, at lower true value than when i bought the guns.. then convert the paper to equipment at higher price because of the inflation present now. to put numbers on it, $350 of 2015 money bought me a $1200 work truck at 2018 price thats a $2000 truck now. $350 would have never bought the truck.. but it buys even less of it in the future. yesterday we counted my ammo at 80 cents a round. i paid 19 cents for it. find me a CD like that.
do the machines take fuel? sure.. if the machine goes to work for someone the fuel price is the customers problem. you cant go bid a job without the machinery. with it, you have options to work for trades to sustain your life. septic tank for beef? shed pad for sawmill lumber? pond for standing timber? i dont have to stop living because the financial district is contemplating suicide and DC is shut down over partisan gridlock while the apartment dwellers wait for another stimmy deposit while getting served eviction papers and the car insurance is lapsed.
if i need something welded or dirt pushed or a piece of material, i dont have a problem because i have everything i need. theres nearly 2000 gallons of vegetable oil here.. if it really gets ugly i will get lye and methanol and start removing the glycerin so it can ran in all my diesels, not just the converted 2 tank ones. the worst suffering during a hyperinflation is experience by urban apartment dwellers who own nothing they can part with.. and the least is by rural agricultural types with land and a junkpile behind the barn. theyve always been cash poor and not much changes.
Quote from: mike_belben on April 28, 2021, 10:07:14 AM
Quote from: SpaceBus on April 28, 2021, 07:14:34 AM
How will you use the welder and truck if hyperinflation strikes? It's not like gas station attendants and powerplant techs will stay at work for nothing.
youre missing the point.
the welder and truck and equipment dont get worth less, they stay the same as the paper plummets.. the junk just continually commands more and more paper.. but it holds its value in junk for junk trades. it is only the paper money that shrinks. the junk is like a CD account thats paying real interest. my dozer was $10k around 2017 or 18.. comparables are 15-18k now and i use it all the time so its not just tied up money like a savings account that is eaten alive by inflation. junk has payed me thousands and thousands in dividends while the asset has still appreciated due to inflation despite me using them up.
i bought many guns at half price as an employee. i traded up on those guns when guns were in high demand.
can i weld with a gun? can i drive a gun? no. id have to convert guns back to paper now, at lower true value than when i bought the guns.. then convert the paper to equipment at higher price because of the inflation present now. to put numbers on it, $350 of 2015 money bought me a $1200 work truck at 2018 price thats a $2000 truck now. $350 would have never bought the truck.. but it buys even less of it in the future. yesterday we counted my ammo at 80 cents a round. i paid 19 cents for it. find me a CD like that.
do the machines take fuel? sure.. if the machine goes to work for someone the fuel price is the customers problem. you cant go bid a job without the machinery. with it, you have options to work for trades to sustain your life. septic tank for beef? shed pad for sawmill lumber? pond for standing timber? i dont have to stop living because the financial district is contemplating suicide and DC is shut down over partisan gridlock while the apartment dwellers wait for another stimmy deposit while getting served eviction papers and the car insurance is lapsed.
if i need something welded or dirt pushed or a piece of material, i dont have a problem because i have everything i need. theres nearly 2000 gallons of vegetable oil here.. if it really gets ugly i will get lye and methanol and start removing the glycerin so it can ran in all my diesels, not just the converted 2 tank ones. the worst suffering during a hyperinflation is experience by urban apartment dwellers who own nothing they can part with.. and the least is by rural agricultural types with land and a junkpile behind the barn. theyve always been cash poor and not much changes.
I'm not missing the point, I simply have different priorities. If our government collapses many in our rural agricultural area will be hosed. When trucks stop driving out to us here at the end of the line, people will starve. To the last of my knowledge it will be hard to barter a welder or welding services without fuel for generators. Now, if you traded your guns and ammo for breeding stock I might agree with you. I know someone that traded their AR15, several magazines, and a few thousand rounds for a large flock of chickens and a coop last spring. That flock is now raising their own young and can help sustain a family indefinitely, without electricity or fuel.
Now then, I don't think we will see a true hyperinflation in this country. Unlike everyone else our money is backed up by our military.
my apologies then. i wont critique your priorities if you dont critique mine.
The fed decided to leave the interest alone for another quarter. We're ok for a little while longer :D.
Oh goodie - now I don't have to worry about inflation for any projects, equipment, repairs, I need. What a nice guy that Mr Powell is..... ::)
A potential customer called me yesterday with a $22,451 (store bought) cut list and I quoted $5,450 to saw the lumber. He has the SYP logs on the ground and is now checking the grading & permit requirements in his county.
If the builder and permit guy will allow 1X12 sheathing instead of OSB his lumber savings will be even more although the carpenter will probably charge more to saw those 45°'s.
Quote from: SpaceBus on April 28, 2021, 11:12:00 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on April 28, 2021, 10:07:14 AM
Quote from: SpaceBus on April 28, 2021, 07:14:34 AM
How will you use the welder and truck if hyperinflation strikes? It's not like gas station attendants and powerplant techs will stay at work for nothing.
youre missing the point.
the welder and truck and equipment dont get worth less, they stay the same as the paper plummets.. the junk just continually commands more and more paper.. but it holds its value in junk for junk trades. it is only the paper money that shrinks. the junk is like a CD account thats paying real interest. my dozer was $10k around 2017 or 18.. comparables are 15-18k now and i use it all the time so its not just tied up money like a savings account that is eaten alive by inflation. junk has payed me thousands and thousands in dividends while the asset has still appreciated due to inflation despite me using them up.
i bought many guns at half price as an employee. i traded up on those guns when guns were in high demand.
can i weld with a gun? can i drive a gun? no. id have to convert guns back to paper now, at lower true value than when i bought the guns.. then convert the paper to equipment at higher price because of the inflation present now. to put numbers on it, $350 of 2015 money bought me a $1200 work truck at 2018 price thats a $2000 truck now. $350 would have never bought the truck.. but it buys even less of it in the future. yesterday we counted my ammo at 80 cents a round. i paid 19 cents for it. find me a CD like that.
do the machines take fuel? sure.. if the machine goes to work for someone the fuel price is the customers problem. you cant go bid a job without the machinery. with it, you have options to work for trades to sustain your life. septic tank for beef? shed pad for sawmill lumber? pond for standing timber? i dont have to stop living because the financial district is contemplating suicide and DC is shut down over partisan gridlock while the apartment dwellers wait for another stimmy deposit while getting served eviction papers and the car insurance is lapsed.
if i need something welded or dirt pushed or a piece of material, i dont have a problem because i have everything i need. theres nearly 2000 gallons of vegetable oil here.. if it really gets ugly i will get lye and methanol and start removing the glycerin so it can ran in all my diesels, not just the converted 2 tank ones. the worst suffering during a hyperinflation is experience by urban apartment dwellers who own nothing they can part with.. and the least is by rural agricultural types with land and a junkpile behind the barn. theyve always been cash poor and not much changes.
I'm not missing the point, I simply have different priorities. If our government collapses many in our rural agricultural area will be hosed. When trucks stop driving out to us here at the end of the line, people will starve. To the last of my knowledge it will be hard to barter a welder or welding services without fuel for generators. Now, if you traded your guns and ammo for breeding stock I might agree with you. I know someone that traded their AR15, several magazines, and a few thousand rounds for a large flock of chickens and a coop last spring. That flock is now raising their own young and can help sustain a family indefinitely, without electricity or fuel.
Now then, I don't think we will see a true hyperinflation in this country. Unlike everyone else our money is backed up by our military.
Essentially have your worth in assets not savings, because the money printer keeps on printing and money is worth less and less, but assets are more stable.
@HemlockKing (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=55126) well said!
Quote from: HemlockKing on April 30, 2021, 08:13:06 AM
Quote from: SpaceBus on April 28, 2021, 11:12:00 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on April 28, 2021, 10:07:14 AM
Quote from: SpaceBus on April 28, 2021, 07:14:34 AM
How will you use the welder and truck if hyperinflation strikes? It's not like gas station attendants and powerplant techs will stay at work for nothing.
youre missing the point.
the welder and truck and equipment dont get worth less, they stay the same as the paper plummets.. the junk just continually commands more and more paper.. but it holds its value in junk for junk trades. it is only the paper money that shrinks. the junk is like a CD account thats paying real interest. my dozer was $10k around 2017 or 18.. comparables are 15-18k now and i use it all the time so its not just tied up money like a savings account that is eaten alive by inflation. junk has payed me thousands and thousands in dividends while the asset has still appreciated due to inflation despite me using them up.
i bought many guns at half price as an employee. i traded up on those guns when guns were in high demand.
can i weld with a gun? can i drive a gun? no. id have to convert guns back to paper now, at lower true value than when i bought the guns.. then convert the paper to equipment at higher price because of the inflation present now. to put numbers on it, $350 of 2015 money bought me a $1200 work truck at 2018 price thats a $2000 truck now. $350 would have never bought the truck.. but it buys even less of it in the future. yesterday we counted my ammo at 80 cents a round. i paid 19 cents for it. find me a CD like that.
do the machines take fuel? sure.. if the machine goes to work for someone the fuel price is the customers problem. you cant go bid a job without the machinery. with it, you have options to work for trades to sustain your life. septic tank for beef? shed pad for sawmill lumber? pond for standing timber? i dont have to stop living because the financial district is contemplating suicide and DC is shut down over partisan gridlock while the apartment dwellers wait for another stimmy deposit while getting served eviction papers and the car insurance is lapsed.
if i need something welded or dirt pushed or a piece of material, i dont have a problem because i have everything i need. theres nearly 2000 gallons of vegetable oil here.. if it really gets ugly i will get lye and methanol and start removing the glycerin so it can ran in all my diesels, not just the converted 2 tank ones. the worst suffering during a hyperinflation is experience by urban apartment dwellers who own nothing they can part with.. and the least is by rural agricultural types with land and a junkpile behind the barn. theyve always been cash poor and not much changes.
I'm not missing the point, I simply have different priorities. If our government collapses many in our rural agricultural area will be hosed. When trucks stop driving out to us here at the end of the line, people will starve. To the last of my knowledge it will be hard to barter a welder or welding services without fuel for generators. Now, if you traded your guns and ammo for breeding stock I might agree with you. I know someone that traded their AR15, several magazines, and a few thousand rounds for a large flock of chickens and a coop last spring. That flock is now raising their own young and can help sustain a family indefinitely, without electricity or fuel.
Now then, I don't think we will see a true hyperinflation in this country. Unlike everyone else our money is backed up by our military.
Essentially have your worth in assets not savings, because the money printer keeps on printing and money is worth less and less, but assets are more stable.
I actually converted my savings into equipment a year before the pandemic struck. Not out of fear of economic collapse, just tired of doing everything the hard way.
Quote from: Magicman on April 29, 2021, 02:59:00 PMA potential customer called me yesterday with a $22,451 (store bought) cut list and I quoted $5,450 to saw the lumber. . . .
This job is really interesting because there have been a number of market headlines that predict that construction lumber and steel will stay high for a fair while.
This scenario may become a mainstay in your business, MM.
Please let us know if the building codes can be passed in your area for the builder to use "home made" lumber.
Also, when you phone quote $'s for milling, is that based on his very accurate log scaling of his whack of SYP? . . . or based on his building cut list converted to bf . . . or is it undestood to be a loose number based on his saying; "I've got about 130 logs at 16"x 8' SYP. "
You've got many successful years of milling under your belt - you're probably a very accurate price setter too.
If lumber prices stay high, our milling prices may have to be adjusted too.
I suspect the lumber crisis will cause people to put demands on their legislators that code variances of some sort, allowing for sawmilled native lumber in more and more places. Legislators dont care about stamped lumber, they care about re-election.
QuoteI actually converted my savings into equipment a year before the pandemic struck. Not out of fear of economic collapse, just tired of doing everything the hard way.
Mine wasnt so much fear of economic collapse but a certain conclusion that inflation is forever and never stopped stealing my savings. I got tired of racing up the ladder of success to find out it was really a vertical escalator and that every rung i stepped off just disappeared into the floor while a new one popped up on top and that i could never rest when money was my idol. So i jumped off and went "backwards" which has been wonderful.
I dont miss having a $500 cushion at stress level 9. I can do without the $500 if the stress is at 1 or 2. The lord provides one day at a time.
fetching my parts truck with perfect cab that i need for my cummins dually resto. I bought it with ammo that cost me $90 USD and truly appreciated.. We called it $400. The frame and axle will become some sort of trailer and the 318/46re a powerplant for some father son project.
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People ask me why i live here in this crazy trailer hood. Because i can drive down the street with a truck on the forks and no one even looks at me. Thats freedom.
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(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/20011/IMG_9624.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1619790397)
@Andries (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=9307) It was based on his cut list. I was showing him a comparison of "84 Lumber's" cost compared with my sawing cost. For example the first item was for "600" 10'X2X4 studs, converted to 3960bf then X my sawing rate. My sawing cost was $1386 vs the lumber yard's $7212. Their cost is $12.02 ea. where my sawing cost would be $2.31.
It was not necessarily a "bid" for sawing his lumber, but a very significant comparison. It worked out to about 25%.
What is the real cost once you add in logs? Even if he's using his own logs, they have a value. Just wonder what the actual cost would be.
He has already removed the trees to clear for the house site. There is no market for that few logs so the log cost/value was basically zero plus his labor.
This is the exact situation with the majority of the new homes that I saw lumber for. The trees are removed to clear the building site and then repurposed into building materials.
I understand that he already has the logs, just curious what the same cut list would cost if the logs had to be purchased.
I have no idea about the log market but I am hearing the same thing from other customers. They need lumber and can't sell a half dozen trees so they make lumber. I have a job to saw next week for a many times repeat customer. He called me with his building's dimensions and we figured out his cut list. I talked with him again last evening and I will saw what logs he has and if we don't make the cut list, he will whack another tree. It is very common for me to arrive the next morning and find logs that were felled and skidded the previous evening after I went home. No matter what the tree's value is, it is an immediate saving to the customer.
Depends on where you measure log value. Delivered to a mill, softwood is probably $300-350, so it'd basically double the cost MM mentions for his sawing.
QuoteI suspect the lumber crisis will cause people to put demands on their legislators that code variances of some sort, allowing for sawmilled native lumber in more and more places. Legislators dont care about stamped lumber, they care about re-election.
Sadly, I've seen nothing to indicate people will get off the couch there.
It is not at all uncommon for us to fish nice logs out of the pushed up burn pile on jobsites. Even if it "just" makes trim they get nice native hardwood trim instead of burning those logs and going to the big box to buy garden variety softwood trim.
I would be interested in how the builder prices the board sheathing vs sheet goods. It does eat up a lot more time. Quality sort goes floor, roof, walls for strength/defects. I saw you mention 1x12's. I keep it around 6-8" to avoid drying splitting, YMMV.
Yup, I don't know why I said 1X12's when I would normally saw 1X6's for sheathing?? :-X
The labor would also be more for chopsawing those 10'X2X4's down to 116 5/8" for studs.
@Magicman (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=10011) Thanks for the detailed reply.
I supposed your customer has to wait for "the fat lady to sing", (building code inspections) to give you the red or green light on the milling . . . because the cost savings are huge.
I have a neighbour at the lake camp that did a sneaky pete past the inspectors, only to find that the building insurance industry also weighs in on compliance.
🤔
You can run, but you can't always hide.
Exactly, building a home is too much of an investment to try and take a "sneaky" risk.
I printed the 5 issues on the back of my sawing contract: Blueprint, Permit, Lending, Insurance, & Builder.
Crabbe's sawmill yard is still stuffed full of lumber. Some day the bills need paid. And I don't see any new housing going up. The neighbor is suppose to build this summer, so far all I've seen is some 'playing' with an old excavator on a very wet, not cleared woods sight. He sold his farm this spring. It's interesting.
I have not seen one stick of new lumber here on pillhead road. We are a frugal bunch.
;)
I think a house framer crew would be none to happy if they were expecting a stack of 4x8 plywood sheathing, and instead were given a pile of 1x6's and told to cover the walls, and the roof. :o
Quote from: Resonator on May 01, 2021, 12:26:24 PM
I think a house framer crew would be none to happy if they were expecting a stack of 4x8 plywood sheathing, and instead were given a pile of 1x6's and told to cover the walls, and the roof. :o
The boss might be mad but the guys I know in that line of work get paid by the hour, no skin off their nose! ;D
Personally not opposed to sheathing with boards but can say I've worked with enough framing carpenters to know the adult words would be flying out of them if asked to sheath with boards and not sheet goods :D
Should plank lathing be laid up diagonal for integrity of the whole frame, or is horizontal OK?
I vaguely remember old carpenters with miter boxes cutting corner bracing for plank sheathing.
Diagonal, make triangles whenever you can. The 4x8 sheet is actually making a triangle too but the boards being longer make for better bracing. Roof sheathing is typically laid horizontal but either covered with metal (there's the bracing plane) or there are diagonal wind braces nailed on the inside from plate to peak.
As long as the labor is bid for it neither the boss or the laborers... or the customer, really should gripe. That's where I'm curious how it turns out on MM's job in total compared to labor and current sheet good prices. Knowing the point where it makes sense to go board is a good thing.
I agree with Don on everything he said.
The houses I've worked on in the northeast here that were stick built and board sheathed, mostly were diagonal floors and horizontal walls.
I agree diagonal walls would be stronger but it's tough to knock them when they've held up over time. Having put it up diagonally on walls it definitely takes a lot longer.
Maybe that's why most are horizontal?
I've seen lots of old farm houses stood for over 100 years an no diagonal wood on floors or walls or roof. Not hard to see when renovating. But houses up this way was build like barns, big timbers and also wide boards on roofs. You didn't put steel on them roofs, it was cedar shingles. ;D Some plaster was mixed with horse hair, and someone not knowing was asbestos is to start with thinks that is what it is, in the plaster. ::) This was before 2 world wars, unlikely. ;)
Quote from: Don P on May 01, 2021, 03:47:43 PMThat's where I'm curious how it turns out on MM's job in total compared to labor and current sheet good prices.
Not just the sheathing but also the framing lumber. I have talked to many potential customers in this county, but I have never sawn framing lumber for a home there. We shall see but I am not optimistic. ::)
I was told by another mill owner that a local contractor is boarding in roofs with boards on new builds.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 01, 2021, 05:19:41 PM
I've seen lots of old farm houses stood for over 100 years an no diagonal wood on floors or walls or roof. Not hard to see when renovating. But houses up this way was build like barns, big timbers and also wide boards on roofs. You didn't put steel on them roofs, it was cedar shingles. ;D Some plaster was mixed with horse hair, and someone not knowing was asbestos is to start with thinks that is what it is, in the plaster. ::) This was before 2 world wars, unlikely. ;)
I agree with that as well every old post and beam structure I've ever worked on everything was "horizontal" ...perpendicular to the framing
Don can most likely explain better than I but I always figured the shear value of those buildings is in the frame and not the sheathing.
Stickbuilt well that's different
Quote from: newoodguy78 on May 01, 2021, 09:05:28 PM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 01, 2021, 05:19:41 PM
I've seen lots of old farm houses stood for over 100 years an no diagonal wood on floors or walls or roof. Not hard to see when renovating. But houses up this way was build like barns, big timbers and also wide boards on roofs. You didn't put steel on them roofs, it was cedar shingles. ;D Some plaster was mixed with horse hair, and someone not knowing was asbestos is to start with thinks that is what it is, in the plaster. ::) This was before 2 world wars, unlikely. ;)
I agree with that as well every old post and beam structure I've ever worked on everything was "horizontal" ...perpendicular to the framing
Don can most likely explain better than I but I always figured the shear value of those buildings is in the frame and not the sheathing.
Stickbuilt well that's different
Yes, and have 45° beams in all the corners. [ Hurricane bracing]
And everybody loves wide boards. ;D
Wide board framing: I've torn down several old houses in my area to get at the wormy chestnut boards in them. A couple had no studs in the walls but wide boards standing on end nailed to the side of the rim joists and lapped in a double thickness wall completely around the building. They were two stories with an interesting approach to keeping it all from coming down on my head.
Even prior to the current lumber prices fiasco I've seen wide board roof sheathing on new home construction here any number of times driving by a build. I'm sure it was a price of mfg sheets vs. boards thing.
On interest rates and guvment give away money- I got curious and looked up who in the world holds the USA bonds that back up our guvment and money-I saw no mention of our military as mentioned here earlier. Japan holds the most with several other countries following them.
In my area (no building codes-except an electrical & plumbing inspection if under 10 acres) (or zoning), it's common practice to build modern homes, meaning those not needing to meet a loan agency standard with the materials and done from local sawmill lumber. No doubt most are financed personally or in part with a straight bank loan, as I did once for a green lumber home.
I just read an article in my LEX, KY newspaper few days ago on the business page about a retail lumber yard selling some of their own lumber inventory back to a lumber distributor/broker. It was said to be a very rare reversal/occurrence in the lumber business.
In todays same paper a letter to the editor by a parent of 3 kids who finished college was advocating for me to pay off her kids student loans. She said they'd spent over $700,000 between them going to school, didn't say where. As long as we have folks who feel that way we're headed for a disaster?
One of our son's refinanced his home because it made it easier for him to pay it off early and save interest too. Contrast that with the 17-18% that was offered to me to consolidate my land & construction loans when he was 2 yrs old. We all share in the cost of his savings? For my wife & I as seniors we get zilch for our retirement savings and I damned sure don't want more "items" to buy than I need to earn more.
Green, EWP near me at a small mill sawn from their own logs is ~ 65 cents BF.
$700,000.00 spent but probably minimal lessons on personal responsibility.. ok no farther down that rabbit hole..... back to lumber prices are too high, as is everything else... I needed 4 self tapping #8 screws yesterday, I could buy 4 prepackaged for 1.89$!?!..... I passed.... ptobably should go weigh a similar screw see what that worked out to per pound.
Like I said before on here "everything but OUR check that we make".
I needed some small washers and they were 4¢ each at the hardware store. A hole drilled through a penny was much more economical. ;D
I recently ran out of brass hinge screws to use the brass hinges I bought when an old hdwe store went out ~ 40 yrs ago. Ebay I got a #lb for around $6 of solid brass screws. Ebay is my first look see for hdwe items, not a box store if I can avoid one.
Doesn't the US Secret Service investigate money crimes? Seriously, there's a statue of a soldier on the KS Capital grounds (not one of the ones in the news), it's made of melted down pennies gathered by school kids back when.
I was using washers to shim loose log notches on a job one time till I realized pennies cost a penny :D
It is hard to argue with what has worked most of the time. In my mind I don't think that way, I call those "good enough carpenters". If it takes just a bit more effort to make something stronger, there I go. Diagonal sheathing is far superior. Code doesn't recognize horizontal as wall bracing so something else would be needed to fill that need.
Heavy timber has more shoulders but suffers from the same problems, they certainly don't all stand straight and strong. Also remember that we bury the dead, you see the best or most protected surviving. Most of the older houses I work on are what I call transitional frames. They fall into that developmental period between heavy timber and modern platform frame construction. Foundations are dry laid of loose rock topped by 8x8 sills. The wall corner posts are guttered 8x8's or 6x6's transitioning to a 4x6 with a 2x4 nailed on to form 4" thick walls. Studs are 4x4's transitioning to 2x4's. Low diagonal 4x4 corner bracing is mortised in transitioning into nailed and used mainly as an aid in bracing during raising the frame. There is no sheathing, we call it "single wall" there is simply horizontal clapboard outside and horizontal paneling inside.
Typically the bracing is not nailed to the claddings (shoud be!) and has let go in the wind or when the foundation shifted. I usually find them rattling loose inside the walls. The walls tilt out of plumb restrained by the nails in the cladding as those boards slip along each other. Wider boards to have more triangularization but nothing like diagonal sheathing or sheet goods (with all edges blocked) would provide.
Repair involves getting the house on a solid foundation, locking it to that and then pulling it diagonally back to plumb with long diagonal chains and come-alongs lagged to the frame. Then we hold it plumb with sheathing, sometimes even on interior bracing walls and if that is not possible we'll use lots of triangularizing steel strapping. Here's a couple of pics of the current job showing that, notice that during a remodel someone whacked one of the braces and termites got the other one, that kind of stuff happened all the time on old frames.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/100_6332op.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1619963946)
New sill, stud bottoms were all shot, the siding was the principle load path. To preserve interior finishes we wedged in new studs alongside the existing and added a few more as needed. The windows are not original, look above them on each inboard corner, those 4x4's were mortised in and flanked a large fireplace and exterior chimney. That went to a smal interior stove chimney and mamma wanted some new windows, hence the brace whack. The strapping is vastly inferior to diagonal sheathing or sheet goods but the most I was allowed. You can see the 2x4 nailed bracing and mostly 2x4 studding on the second floor. Interesting thinking evolving in these old frames. This was a red and white oak frame.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/100_6426op.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1619964019)
Here's another one where I could sheath it in osb to lock it plumb. It had fallen off of its second foundation, inadequate footings and poor blockwork then taken one heck of a lean.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/cavey8_27_2015_003.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1565653166)
Don, you do great work but I fail to see the economics of digging that far into what I would term an "old farmhouse". We used to use those old houses for storing square baled hay. Looks like it would be simpler to build a replica properly from scratch than to salvage what is often shoddy construction to start with?
No doubt and I encourage them to let me burn them and build a better one. Sentiment is a strong motivator. One of the ones I did excessive repairs on has had 7 generations of the same family in it. My sentiments are a little more practical, a building was never intended by the original builder to be a shrine, they were just getting out of the weather. One of the owners of the house in that bottom pic just left, she came to cook and visit with my wife who is down for repairs, good friends. She kept saying of the old house "It has great bones". To which I would reply "It has rheumatoid arthritis :D". He wanted me to build a nice timberframe further up on the rise. Being a bright lad, she won.
I was just gonna say.. We really cling to our memories and a house holds a lot of them. Economics be danged.
Currently, pennies are great until a person realizes the crazy economic situation of actually minting then. The materials are worth WAY more than a penny! Copper cladding x$, zinc core x$, time investment x$. Tell me....
In FY 2020, the toll to make, administer and distribute the 1-cent coin retreated to 1.76 cents from 1.99 cents while the cost for the 5-cent coin eased to 7.42 cents from 7.62 cents.
And for the last 6 - 8 months most businesses have had a shortage of coins. A couple of big box type stores didnt want to take cash unless you had exact change. Most of the self check-outs at the local Wally-Mart would only take credit or debit cards. No cash.
Par for the course.
Quote from: mike_belben on May 02, 2021, 03:28:30 PM
I was just gonna say.. We really cling to our memories and a house holds a lot of them. Economics be danged.
Oh, I'm not shy about starting over. 'An old house is always an old house' is the saying around here. ;D I still hold the memories, but never too much about a house, just the folks that made it home. ;)
Quote from: RichTired on May 02, 2021, 04:23:11 PM
In FY 2020, the toll to make, administer and distribute the 1-cent coin retreated to 1.76 cents from 1.99 cents while the cost for the 5-cent coin eased to 7.42 cents from 7.62 cents.
And for the last 6 - 8 months most businesses have had a shortage of coins. A couple of big box type stores didnt want to take cash unless you had exact change. Most of the self check-outs at the local Wally-Mart would only take credit or debit cards. No cash.
They never refused cash here (including Walmart), in fact can't. I doubt in the US they would be allowed to get away with it when reported. Cash overrides cards. Only thing refused by some stores here was coupons, but never cash.
Most if not all bills printed have "this note is good for all debts public and private" printed on them.
I have been known to force businesses to take them if I don't have a check book or credit card with me. Heck a check costs more to get than some smaller items cost. And I don't want my credit card # given to some people.
Quote from: RichTired on May 02, 2021, 04:23:11 PM
In FY 2020, the toll to make, administer and distribute the 1-cent coin retreated to 1.76 cents from 1.99 cents while the cost for the 5-cent coin eased to 7.42 cents from 7.62 cents.
And for the last 6 - 8 months most businesses have had a shortage of coins. A couple of big box type stores didnt want to take cash unless you had exact change. Most of the self check-outs at the local Wally-Mart would only take credit or debit cards. No cash.
This used to happen at the 24 hour shoppette on Fort Bragg every other day. Not unusual for places to only accept exact change or cards when coins are short.
No matter what it actually cost to produce a penny, it is still only worth a penny in my pocket or as a washer.
I have advocated discontinuing pennies for years because that are a worthless nuisance. We never saw Canadian pennies when we were there in 2019. They either rounded it up or down which is what we should do.
Quote from: Magicman on May 02, 2021, 07:18:26 PM
No matter what it actually cost to produce a penny, it is still only worth a penny in my pocket or as a washer.
I have advocated discontinuing pennies for years because that are a worthless nuisance. We never saw Canadian pennies when we were there in 2019. They either rounded it up or down which is what we should do.
That's what you find on overseas military bases due to the high cost of transporting pennies.
Some of the night markets here have gone cashless for security reasons. Stallholders don't have to watch a till or cashbox, just have a wireless terminal. NZ has EFTPOS cards which are not affiliated with Visa or any of the CC companies. They are NZ only, and don't work online, so fraud and bank charges are low.
A merchant can avoid the "Have to accept cash to settle a debt" by simply declining to sell you something. Then there is no "debt" to settle.
Quote from: Magicman on May 02, 2021, 07:18:26 PM
No matter what it actually cost to produce a penny, it is still only worth a penny in my pocket or as a washer.
I have advocated discontinuing pennies for years because that are a worthless nuisance. We never saw Canadian pennies when we were there in 2019. They either rounded it up or down which is what we should do.
Time to get rid of the nickel as well but it seems like the government cant do anything that makes sense
Lumber prices to high - excuse my elimination of the conjnction - could it be a return to the inverse relation of material to labour cost construction? What could it imply? Sorry, you may have to reconsider that Backyard gazeebo but maybe be more inclined to repair a leaky sewer pipe or other upkeep. Not to be flippant but I've often wondered about the effects of higher material costs and lower Labour costs, a sort of 19th century condition, generally and not particularly.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 02, 2021, 04:42:54 PM
Quote from: RichTired on May 02, 2021, 04:23:11 PM
In FY 2020, the toll to make, administer and distribute the 1-cent coin retreated to 1.76 cents from 1.99 cents while the cost for the 5-cent coin eased to 7.42 cents from 7.62 cents.
And for the last 6 - 8 months most businesses have had a shortage of coins. A couple of big box type stores didnt want to take cash unless you had exact change. Most of the self check-outs at the local Wally-Mart would only take credit or debit cards. No cash.
They never refused cash here (including Walmart), in fact can't. I doubt in the US they would be allowed to get away with it when reported. Cash overrides cards. Only thing refused by some stores here was coupons, but never cash.
Canadian Tire, Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada no cash no debit credit card only,curb side pick up only no customers in store and very busy.
If a government stops minting pennies, does that mean it just won't make cents? ;D
Quote from: hacknchop on May 03, 2021, 09:50:27 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 02, 2021, 04:42:54 PM
Quote from: RichTired on May 02, 2021, 04:23:11 PM
In FY 2020, the toll to make, administer and distribute the 1-cent coin retreated to 1.76 cents from 1.99 cents while the cost for the 5-cent coin eased to 7.42 cents from 7.62 cents.
And for the last 6 - 8 months most businesses have had a shortage of coins. A couple of big box type stores didnt want to take cash unless you had exact change. Most of the self check-outs at the local Wally-Mart would only take credit or debit cards. No cash.
They never refused cash here (including Walmart), in fact can't. I doubt in the US they would be allowed to get away with it when reported. Cash overrides cards. Only thing refused by some stores here was coupons, but never cash.
Canadian Tire, Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada no cash no debit credit card only,curb side pick up only no customers in store and very busy.
That's my kind of operation.
Quote from: Resonator on May 03, 2021, 10:45:42 AM
If a government stops minting pennies, does that mean it just won't make cents? ;D
They already don't have any sense.
Quote from: hacknchop on May 03, 2021, 09:50:27 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 02, 2021, 04:42:54 PM
Quote from: RichTired on May 02, 2021, 04:23:11 PM
In FY 2020, the toll to make, administer and distribute the 1-cent coin retreated to 1.76 cents from 1.99 cents while the cost for the 5-cent coin eased to 7.42 cents from 7.62 cents.
And for the last 6 - 8 months most businesses have had a shortage of coins. A couple of big box type stores didnt want to take cash unless you had exact change. Most of the self check-outs at the local Wally-Mart would only take credit or debit cards. No cash.
They never refused cash here (including Walmart), in fact can't. I doubt in the US they would be allowed to get away with it when reported. Cash overrides cards. Only thing refused by some stores here was coupons, but never cash.
Canadian Tire, Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada no cash no debit credit card only,curb side pick up only no customers in store and very busy.
I've just looked it up from a couple of sources and apparently in Canada you
can legally refuse cash for payments. Although Bank of Canada says retailers should still take cash. There's lot's of folks without cards.
I don't get it.....
Record high lumber prices and an article this AM in the CBC about the sawmills in New Brunswick bragging about record profits. Meanwhile, I'm considering switching to excavation work because lately my stud wood worth isn't worth enough to cut and sell it. I tried cutting for other folks but the rate was so low, I literally lost my shirt on it.
The very same bunch that is screaming awesome year and high fives all around!
Yet I cant afford to do a simple bedroom addition on my house given the corrupt government
ADMIN LANGUAGE EDIT standing here telling me that my lumber needs to be stamped and certified that it is indeed graded as garbage and overpriced in order to use it! People need to wake up and realize that we cant keep feeding these corporate powerhouses. They are in bed with the municipal building inspectors and are going to gouge us dry. Perhaps a bit of a conspiracy theory, I guess, but how else does any of this make sense. I used to get almost 90$ /ton, now I get 66$/ton. It makes me sick to see these producers bragging about record profits. I work just as hard to deliver the raw materials as they do to produce and sell it.
STOP BUYING LUMBER AT BIG BOX STORES, SUPPORT SMALL LOCAL MILLS, THEY ARE KILLING US WITH GREED!
There are reasons graded lumber is required, not just because there are donkeys in the works. I'm sure there are more knowledgeable folk than me that can elaborate, but it's not just out of greed, although someone is certainly making money on it. There is always someone turning a profit.
Quote from: SpaceBus on May 04, 2021, 06:43:32 AMThere are reasons graded lumber is required, not just because there are donkeys in the works......... although someone is certainly making money on it. There is always someone turning a profit.
Henny-Penny-the-Sky-is-Falling (https://americanliterature.com/childrens-stories/henny-penny-the-sky-is-falling)
We blindly follow Henny-Penny but note that the Fox and the Fox Hole were there, same as today. :-X
I sold 6 loads of Wood 2 years ago. 3 of those loads ended up at Irving's Mill in St. Leonard and came back as Inventory for Big Orange. 2 Loads went into Chipboard at Hubers and one became Firewood.
I can do all those things for myself except for making chipboard. The rules should allow for people to take personal responsibility or if your going to require me to follow then the Inspector should be the one who attends grading schooling not me.
This is all in their plan to control us. Most every State has Price gouging laws but so far no one has stood up for it.
Now this cancer is spreading throughout all building materials.
I get it sure... Some donkey used bad wood, his house collapsed and somebody got hurt.
Sure.
But why is it that the top dollar lumber looks like its already been through the war? The inspection process has failed at some point and this is more often than not, the case. Now when we were milling out lumber for our small shed building, it was all perfect. Every piece. I didn't want the garbage that they expect you to put into your builds.
I remember when the guys were building my big garage. The contractor was getting a hassle because the lumber was in terrible shape, too much bad shape material to not have the option to throw it aside. We had to use it. He just said sorry, but this is the graded number one we were delivered in the package, it was stamped so he had no choice but to allow it to proceed.
The building codes and inspectors need to realize that sometimes, most of the time, the product we provide is far superior to what is purchased at multiples of the cost. The only answer is corruption, greed....
Its certainly not what's in the best interest of a poor folk trying to put a roof over the heads of their family. There's no money that.....
Sorry for the rant, feeling sour today and stuck in a rut I cant get out of, its called an office with to many computers. If wood (Stud/Pulp) were a better price here Id be logging instead, I'm so tired of being stuck indoors and I'm always wishing the industry could pick up again! Like many folks around here. Then I'm getting hassle because I want to build a new bedroom for my kid on the end of a 190 yr old farmhouse but then these inspectors want to get involved and pretty much shuts it completely down before it even starts. It all makes a fellow feel a little bit cornered.
Ya ever feel like youre being coralled into poverty despite a willingness and desire to work really hard? Ever look back and think "this is what i was making in 11th grade!" ??
Asking for a friend.
😂😂. You got that right!! Most lumber from the big box stores are garbage. Even on the graded premium stuff you have to dig and sort. You practically have to dig through the whole stack to get anything good. The big box stores are sneaky how they have it arranged to make it difficult to get the good pieces. They want you to take what comes off the top
Yup, it's wrong. What are you going to do about it?
That's why it continues.
go live in a shack in the woods and tell society to pith off is what im gonna do! ;D
Quote from: mike_belben on May 04, 2021, 04:22:57 PM
go live in a shack in the woods and tell society to pith off is what im gonna do! ;D
This is likely highly illegal most places.... But intriguing none the less.
You might even get warning message for that one, I got one yesterday, easily offended round here I guess.
Quote from: Don P on May 04, 2021, 04:20:42 PM
Yup, it's wrong. What are you going to do about it?
That's why it continues.
Probably just cry about it on the internet.... Unless there are any other suggestions.
A whole big (***Insert explicit narrative here) ton of folks one day drove all their log trucks and processors downtown and clogged up a major city highway for a bit. That was cool. Things some city folk never saw before. That was protesting the pulp industry closing.
Didn't change nothing. Awesome parade though.
Quote from: Kim_Ked on May 05, 2021, 05:38:15 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on May 04, 2021, 04:22:57 PM
go live in a shack in the woods and tell society to pith off is what im gonna do! ;D
This is likely highly illegal most places.... But intriguing none the less.
You might even get warning message for that one, I got one yesterday, easily offended round here I guess.
It pretty much is in Nova Scotia, god forbid you're poor. With this province having the highest taxes and lowest wages... they expect you to sleep out in the cold ? Can't even make a shack somewhere without all kinds of permits and people dippi their hands in your pockets, pretty sickening really, "freedom".
I reckon you heard about that old fella in CB that had his house burn down? So he had to live in his detached garage, well the municipality tore it down then charged him the bill for it, taking money he obviously never had while putting him out in the cold, luckily he was donated a old camper trailer, but they are after that now.
Quote from: HemlockKing on May 05, 2021, 06:01:20 AM
Quote from: Kim_Ked on May 05, 2021, 05:38:15 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on May 04, 2021, 04:22:57 PM
go live in a shack in the woods and tell society to pith off is what im gonna do! ;D
This is likely highly illegal most places.... But intriguing none the less.
You might even get warning message for that one, I got one yesterday for typing a foul word for rectum that starts with an A, ends in hole, easily offended round here I guess.
It pretty much is in Nova Scotia, god forbid you're poor. With this province having the highest taxes and lowest wages... they expect you to sleep out in the cold ? Can't even make a shack somewhere without all kinds of permits and people dippi their hands in your pockets, pretty sickening really, "freedom".
I reckon you heard about that old fella in CB that had his house burn down? So he had to live in his detached garage, well the municipality tore it down then charged him the bill for it, taking money he obviously never had while putting him out in the cold, luckily he was donated a old camper trailer, but they are after that now.
This is exactly what I'm talking about.
I hope the person there enforcing this foolishness gets burned out! Just doing their job, NO. If that's your job, then quit.
They do a bunch of "mental gymnastics" each day to think otherwise so they can sleep every night. Bought and paid for, pretty much every gov party in Canada.
A roof over your head should be a basic human right, if all you got is all you got, how the heck is it acceptable to take that away from them and leave them outside? Dunno. Invoked rage in me, many more different scenarios similar, I will stop now before I start fuming :)
Fortunately here in NW NC one can still build with ungraded lumber, provided the lumber came from your land, is at 19% or less m/c, and you live in the house for at least 2 years prior to selling it. I have been helping my dad acquire the necessary permits to start his house and nobody even batted an eye when we said we were going to saw our own lumber, just make sure it's dry enough before you start and that'll be 400$ please. Even using a spring for water wasn't an issue. It's not exactly freedom, but it's a lot better than what some of you guys are dealing with.
Quote from: mike_belben on May 04, 2021, 12:15:01 PM
Ya ever feel like youre being coralled into poverty despite a willingness and desire to work really hard? Ever look back and think "this is what i was making in 11th grade!" ??
Asking for a friend.
Poverty? Oh no, the ruling class takes care of us now.
Quote from: Jdock on May 05, 2021, 07:16:05 AM
Fortunately here in NW NC one can still build with ungraded lumber, provided the lumber came from your land, is at 19% or less m/c, and you live in the house for at least 2 years prior to selling it. I have been helping my dad acquire the necessary permits to start his house and nobody even batted an eye when we said we were going to saw our own lumber, just make sure it's dry enough before you start and that'll be 400$ please. Even using a spring for water wasn't an issue. It's not exactly freedom, but it's a lot better than what some of you guys are dealing with.
You want to protect what freedoms you have left in N.C. They can be lost one at a time.
First understand.
Doc PS-20 is the enabling document for lumber grading. It is a voluntary product standard, the development was under NIST. It is supposedly a consensus standard developed by all producers and the public. I suspect not all producers had a say and would bet the public would have a few things to say about now. Time to renegotiate.
Graphic1 (nist.gov) (https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2017/06/13/ps20-10.pdf)
Administration is under the ALSC and the CWC. They provide oversight of the grading agencies and push those standards into code. At the state or province level those codes can be renegotiated to provide exemptions for single family residences.
A large push back by small mills and the public might cause representatives to rethink the role and monopoly held by ever fewer large, non competing producers.
I moved to the boonies too, that can change with one overzealous petty bureaucrat.
Pricing is a function of supply, demand, government regulations, and selective enforcement of regulations.
Log supplies tend to often exceed the demand. Plenty of growing stocks and somewhat low capital barriers to logging entry contribute to that excess. Until log supply is low relative to demand prices are not likely to rise.
Production sawmills have a lot of barriers(no doubt some purposely imposed to limit competition) to entry. Some voter somewhere(and probably really close to home) allowed this to happen. The mills that help implement the status quo are plenty greedy enough to exploit the price boom but have no labor to increase production. Hard to compete against the government who is paying people tax free dollars to stay at home.
So my banker relatives called today and it comes out that big corporate clients are being told to move their cash out. The banks have so much cash, deposits, that it is hurting profits. They are making corporations buy bonds, money market funds, etc. Think JP Morgan, Bank of America, etc telling GE, Microsoft, etc to get your deposits out of our bank. Crazy world.
The view from big money kin, it will never be a better time to borrow than now. The banks are desperate to make loans.
High lumber prices are the best thing that could happen to me. I am not building a house and I saw and sell lumber. No body complains about my prices anymore and I keep raising them although not as crazy as the real world. Why did I have to get old and slow?
Quote from: nativewolf on May 05, 2021, 10:50:20 AM
So my banker relatives called today and it comes out that big corporate clients are being told to move their cash out. The banks have so much cash, deposits, that it is hurting profits. They are making corporations buy bonds, money market funds, etc. Think JP Morgan, Bank of America, etc telling GE, Microsoft, etc to get your deposits out of our bank. Crazy world.
The view from big money kin, it will never be a better time to borrow than now. The banks are desperate to make loans.
gotta push that cash out into the marketplace to really inflate the bubble higher, exacerbate the shortages worse, really shrink that WIC/EBT payment to whip up full unrest to coincide on time for the hot days of summer. debauch the currency. maybe shut the welfare off cloward and piven style for days of rage 2.0
youve been into ecology long enough... do you remember back in the 90s all the south american earth accords.. "agenda 21" ?? and no one ever really seemed to know what it meant. i suspect we'll see here shortly.
Nothing that grand Mike, just too much corporate cash sitting around. Piles of it. They could pay it as a dividend but then the market does not reward a dividend so the stock does not bump. They could do stock buybacks but many companies stocks are inflated and they know it so a stock buy back is not a good investment. So...they keep holding onto cash. Now the banks are saying..whoooah the horses that's too much cash. High Net Worths are being told the same. Take your cash somewhere else.
You are right in one thing, it may cause some price increases in unloved assets. You could see money markets rates tumble or govt bond yields change a bit as money chases assets the yield (interest) will fall. This would in turn reduce interest rates in the mortgage business which may increase lending causing maybe some more inflation in building products. Just guessing on all of this, predicting is very tough as we don't know how much money the big companies have been hoarding and how much they have to move.
The best thing would be for them to use the money to make investments. The fact that they can't think of anything to invest in is a bit worrisome. Even Tesla who is building 3 massive new facilities and 3 smaller ones and getting ready to hire thousand and thousands of new employees has so much cash that they bought bitcoin.
If companies come to accept bitcoin then you could see bitcoin massively inflate in price. For all those on the thread concerned about inflation bitcoin is an interesting phenom.
Think of this, in the world of record commodity lumber prices no single entity is standing up a giant new lumber processing facility. Tesla can build a massive million car production facility in 18 months from forest to production. That includes robots, presses, training, permits, etc. IN GERMANY- the home of red tape. In the USA the Austin facility is going to beat that. Between those 2 and the expansion of the facility in China Tesla has built up enough production to last for the next 4 years of capacity increase. These facilities are 4-5 million sq ft. No one is standing up a simple sawmill? Seems there are lots of places for corporations to put cash.
Quote from: nativewolf on May 05, 2021, 04:51:41 PM
Nothing that grand Mike
...maybe grander than you think. lets see what summer brings. i'll bet you a dollar on some sort of new unrest in the unwashed masses.
Tesla lost in the range of $200 million selling vehicles last quarter. Playing with credits and Bitcoin is what saved them.
On the news tonite. Pleasant river lumber is expanding again. Now they saw 300 million ft a year that will increase to 400
At the risk of derailing the Morgan's and Vanderbilt's just some more thoughts on opening up grading rules.
From the Fed Register, Dept of Commerce, on voluntary product standards.
Code of Federal Regulations (govinfo.gov) (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CFR-2003-title15-vol1/xml/CFR-2003-title15-vol1-part10.xml)
Remember this product standard predates small portable mills which should be legitimately considered in the development or review of the current standard. I haven't dug back to the original enabling language but do remember it saying something along the lines that it was not the intent to harm any business.
"The Department may sponsor the development of a voluntary Product Standard if, upon receipt of a request, the Department determines that:(1) The proposed standard is likely to have substantial public impact; (4) Seeks satisfactory adjustment of valid points of disagreement; Economic growth is promoted through:(1) Reduction of manufacturing costs, inventory costs, and distribution costs;(3) Simplification of the purchase, installation, and use of the product being standardized.Quote(2) The Department determines that publication of the standard is appropriate under the procedures set forth in paragraph (g) of this section and, in addition, an analysis of the responses to the distribution under paragraph (b) of this section indicates:(i) An average industry acceptance of not less than 662/3 percent;(ii) Acceptance of not less than 60 percent by the producer segment, the distributor segment, and the user and consumer segment, each segment being considered separately;
(4) "Average industry acceptance" means a percentage equal to the sum of the percentages of acceptance obtained from responses to distribution of the recommended standard in the producer segment, the distributor segment, and the user and consumer segment, divided by three. No consideration will be given to volume of production or volume of distribution in determining average industry acceptance.(5) "Producer segment" means those persons who manufacture or produce the product covered by the standard.(6) "Distributor segment" means those persons who distribute at wholesale or retail the product covered by the standard.(7) "User and consumer segment" means those persons who use or consume the product covered by the standard.
There are now more small mills than large ones, read the fine print in the entire document, however, there is strength in those numbers IF the small mills would all hang together AND get a sizeable portion of the buying public to agree with them. Being our own distribution seems to give another vote and adds to their desired simplification of the purchase.
U.S. Steel just pulled the plug on a 1.5 billion expansion in PA because they couldn't get permitted. Construction lumber has pretty well been in the toilet since 2005. Only a moron would commit to a major multi year investment that enviro whackos would oppose from day one.
Quote from: snowstorm on May 05, 2021, 06:29:20 PM
On the news tonite. Pleasant river lumber is expanding again. Now they saw 300 million ft a year that will increase to 400
About time, that's great.
Quote from: stavebuyer on May 05, 2021, 07:04:16 PM
U.S. Steel just pulled the plug on a 1.5 billion expansion in PA because they couldn't get permitted. Construction lumber has pretty well been in the toilet since 2005. Only a moron would commit to a major multi year investment that enviro whackos would oppose from day one.
US Steel is...not well run is all I got to say to that. Tesla is building the largest factory in the US next to a river, they got it permitted and almost complete in 18 months. Mammoth.
NUCOR buys sites and stands them up in only 2 years. They just announced another one in KY and I guarantee you they will not have permitting issues- it will be running in 2023. Just look at the stock, blast furnaces have proven to be a terrible business match compared to electric arc furnaces that quickly move with the market. I love NUCOR, great company.
Quote from: Don P on May 05, 2021, 06:46:12 PM
At the risk of derailing the Morgan's and Vanderbilt's just some more thoughts on opening up grading rules.
From the Fed Register, Dept of Commerce, on voluntary product standards.
Code of Federal Regulations (govinfo.gov) (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CFR-2003-title15-vol1/xml/CFR-2003-title15-vol1-part10.xml)
Remember this product standard predates small portable mills which should be legitimately considered in the development or review of the current standard. I haven't dug back to the original enabling language but do remember it saying something along the lines that it was not the intent to harm any business.
"The Department may sponsor the development of a voluntary Product Standard if, upon receipt of a request, the Department determines that:
(1) The proposed standard is likely to have substantial public impact;
(4) Seeks satisfactory adjustment of valid points of disagreement;
Economic growth is promoted through:(1) Reduction of manufacturing costs, inventory costs, and distribution costs;(3) Simplification of the purchase, installation, and use of the product being standardized.
Quote(2) The Department determines that publication of the standard is appropriate under the procedures set forth in paragraph (g) of this section and, in addition, an analysis of the responses to the distribution under paragraph (b) of this section indicates:(i) An average industry acceptance of not less than 662/3 percent;(ii) Acceptance of not less than 60 percent by the producer segment, the distributor segment, and the user and consumer segment, each segment being considered separately;
(4) "Average industry acceptance" means a percentage equal to the sum of the percentages of acceptance obtained from responses to distribution of the recommended standard in the producer segment, the distributor segment, and the user and consumer segment, divided by three. No consideration will be given to volume of production or volume of distribution in determining average industry acceptance.(5) "Producer segment" means those persons who manufacture or produce the product covered by the standard.(6) "Distributor segment" means those persons who distribute at wholesale or retail the product covered by the standard.(7) "User and consumer segment" means those persons who use or consume the product covered by the standard.
There are now more small mills than large ones, read the fine print in the entire document, however, there is strength in those numbers IF the small mills would all hang together AND get a sizeable portion of the buying public to agree with them. Being our own distribution seems to give another vote and adds to their desired simplification of the purchase.
This is a good point Don. Very good point. Something to think about.
Quote from: Southside on May 05, 2021, 06:17:23 PM
Tesla lost in the range of $200 million selling vehicles last quarter. Playing with credits and Bitcoin is what saved them.
Don't know what to tell you about that. They made a gross profit of over $2 billion. They spent nearly a billion for Elon Musk stock option grants. They have set aside another billion or so for the next 2 tranches in q2&3. They were smart enough to buy and sell bitcoin and no other big company was. The bitcoin they have left is worth more than what they spent on all of it. I suspect they will spend more in q3 because they are going to absolutely kill it then. They sold credits and you would too if you could, free money. The credits are mostly from FCA (owner of dodge) which has amounted to more than the costs of the Berlin gigafactory. Just LOL. FCA paying Tesla to kill off Mercedes, BMW, and VW.
Once they finish accounting for Elon compensation (he gets no salary) they will be dropping all that cash to the bottom line. I think the bitcoin move was a test looking for alternative assets to cash. I suspect they were told by Goldman that they did not want their cash any longer (it was quite a pile). Bitcoin is an interesting hedge but I'm no expert so I'm just watching.
Quote from: nativewolf on May 05, 2021, 09:08:22 PM
Quote from: Southside on May 05, 2021, 06:17:23 PM
Tesla lost in the range of $200 million selling vehicles last quarter. Playing with credits and Bitcoin is what saved them.
Don't know what to tell you about that. They made a gross profit of over $2 billion. They spent nearly a billion for Elon Musk stock option grants. They have set aside another billion or so for the next 2 tranches in q2&3. They were smart enough to buy and sell bitcoin and no other big company was. The bitcoin they have left is worth more than what they spent on all of it. I suspect they will spend more in q3 because they are going to absolutely kill it then. They sold credits and you would too if you could, free money. The credits are mostly from FCA (owner of dodge) which has amounted to more than the costs of the Berlin gigafactory. Just LOL. FCA paying Tesla to kill off Mercedes, BMW, and VW.
Once they finish accounting for Elon compensation (he gets no salary) they will be dropping all that cash to the bottom line. I think the bitcoin move was a test looking for alternative assets to cash. I suspect they were told by Goldman that they did not want their cash any longer (it was quite a pile). Bitcoin is an interesting hedge but I'm no expert so I'm just watching.
One of Tesla's biggest emissions credit buyers doesn't need them any more, threatening a key profit source for Elon Musk (yahoo.com) (https://news.yahoo.com/one-teslas-biggest-emissions-credit-163057770.html)
Yep car sales have collapsed so much in the EU that FCA didn't need as many as they had thought. Which is the good/bad news. FCA in the EU has lots of little cars and a few EVs that are doing really well while the gas/diesel are not moving. It was still pretty humorous I thought.
My post was really that the US and I guess EU companies are generating lots of cash, lots, they don't have anywhere to put it and don't have the imagination to spend it but now are going to be forced to move it somewhere because it is clogging up banks balance sheets. This may in fact cause some inflation or drive rates down on some financial products. Tesla and NUCOR seem to be able to build factories to support growth- both very different organizations.
RE US Steel- now I've read about it but here is my take: The continuous blast furnaces at Pittsburgh are dirty and inefficient. They needed $1.5 billion to make them as clean as the NUCOR type mills but it did not solve the inefficiency issues. Instead of upgrading in a process that had never been done they took that money and are moving into the electric arc furnace process by buying an existing company in Arkansas. Not quite the same as building a new facility but for US Steel, a major shift in thinking after 30 years of ignoring reality. They can blame "permits" and " unnamed local govt officials" but my take is that they are ditching continuous blast furnaces which will cause some unemployment. You'll see the whole mill in Pittsburgh close within a decade is my take on this. Who knows but if I were a US Steel shareholder I'd say about time.
Tesla stock is pumped up. The crypto works pretty good for him because of his tweets that gets everybody pumped up to buy and drive the stock up😂
Quote from: Walnut Beast on May 06, 2021, 05:52:11 AM
Tesla stock is pumped up. The crypto works pretty good for him because of his tweets that gets everybody pumped up to buy and drive the stock up😂
There is a lot of truth to that. He does a superb job marketing. But he's also no dummy, he has so much cash sitting around that they are buying bitcoin instead of holding in cash. The bitcoin appreciated very quickly but like Tesla stock it had really already run up. I've got to learn about bitcoin I guess, I don't get it.
Average added cost national average to build a house is 36k. Fresh off the radio
Quote from: nativewolf on May 05, 2021, 04:51:41 PM
Nothing that grand Mike, just too much corporate cash sitting around. Piles of it. They could pay it as a dividend but then the market does not reward a dividend so the stock does not bump. They could do stock buybacks but many companies stocks are inflated and they know it so a stock buy back is not a good investment. So...they keep holding onto cash. Now the banks are saying..whoooah the horses that's too much cash. High Net Worths are being told the same. Take your cash somewhere else.
You are right in one thing, it may cause some price increases in unloved assets. You could see money markets rates tumble or govt bond yields change a bit as money chases assets the yield (interest) will fall. This would in turn reduce interest rates in the mortgage business which may increase lending causing maybe some more inflation in building products. Just guessing on all of this, predicting is very tough as we don't know how much money the big companies have been hoarding and how much they have to move.
The best thing would be for them to use the money to make investments. The fact that they can't think of anything to invest in is a bit worrisome. Even Tesla who is building 3 massive new facilities and 3 smaller ones and getting ready to hire thousand and thousands of new employees has so much cash that they bought bitcoin.
If companies come to accept bitcoin then you could see bitcoin massively inflate in price. For all those on the thread concerned about inflation bitcoin is an interesting phenom.
If the economic outlook is so grand; then why are people who control most of the cash hoarding it instead of investing it to meet all the unmet demands?
Didn't somebody with a last name that started with a T ? Say you will see a depreciation like you've never seen before. 🤔 interesting
Gotta love Tesla accounting. The calculated cost of Musks stock option to the company was recorded at what 10% of the stock value, thus reducing the cost to the company and showing the company as retaining more value.
The show must go on.
Quote from: stavebuyer on May 06, 2021, 06:07:11 AM
Quote from: nativewolf on May 05, 2021, 04:51:41 PM
Nothing that grand Mike, just too much corporate cash sitting around. Piles of it. They could pay it as a dividend but then the market does not reward a dividend so the stock does not bump. They could do stock buybacks but many companies stocks are inflated and they know it so a stock buy back is not a good investment. So...they keep holding onto cash. Now the banks are saying..whoooah the horses that's too much cash. High Net Worths are being told the same. Take your cash somewhere else.
You are right in one thing, it may cause some price increases in unloved assets. You could see money markets rates tumble or govt bond yields change a bit as money chases assets the yield (interest) will fall. This would in turn reduce interest rates in the mortgage business which may increase lending causing maybe some more inflation in building products. Just guessing on all of this, predicting is very tough as we don't know how much money the big companies have been hoarding and how much they have to move.
The best thing would be for them to use the money to make investments. The fact that they can't think of anything to invest in is a bit worrisome. Even Tesla who is building 3 massive new facilities and 3 smaller ones and getting ready to hire thousand and thousands of new employees has so much cash that they bought bitcoin.
If companies come to accept bitcoin then you could see bitcoin massively inflate in price. For all those on the thread concerned about inflation bitcoin is an interesting phenom.
If the economic outlook is so grand; then why are people who control most of the cash hoarding it instead of investing it to meet all the unmet demands?
It's a big question because they can't actually use it. I have a close relative that manages all the wealth of most executives at a top 100 type firm that has had 3 spinoffs that are very large in their own right. He tells me that they don't know what to spend/buy/build. Over the 90s-2012 that company made a lot of changes, book looks good now but cash is building up. So what's my relative doing? Taking 5 months off to through hike the Appalachian Trail. He's been training and would have gone last year but for Covid.
For the really crazy wealthy, over a billion, what can you buy? What more does one need? They don't trust the run up in the stock market, bonds are yielding nothing, real estate has already run up and tax code changes could impact real estate returns. At some point just throw some money behind some eager young kids in CA or TX or wherever and see what happens, maybe you back the next Google or the next Intel? Gates and his wife spent their money on a foundation and helped vaccinate a whole continent and many many other projects. Gates foundation is/was pretty cool way to dispose of $50 billion. But to date that only spent $50 out of $200 billion. Oh well...rich person problems. According to the family cash is building up all over and banks are desperate to lend it. Some group told me in 2007 that cash was drying up and 2008 would b the ugly because there was no liquidity. Should have acted a bit harder/faster than I did and now they tell me the opposite, cash is awash and this may be a singular moment in US economic history to borrow.
I was very glad to hear of the 25% increase in production in a facility in Maine that Snowstorm reported. About time.
Quote"A whole big (***Insert explicit narrative here) ton of folks one day drove all their log trucks and processors downtown and clogged up a major city highway for a bit. That was cool. Things some city folk never saw before...Didn't change nothing. Awesome parade though."
Yeah. I hear you Kim_Ked. Not so long ago, to be effective, a protest by working folks had to cause some kind of a disruption or shutdown to have any chance of getting the necessary headlines to cause political discomfort.
Our governments here in Canuckistan have pre-empted us from doing that by shutting everything down.
The commodities brokers and their allies in the media tell you it's frozen OSB glue or hyperinflation or whatever other lie they feed you. Quit repeating them. We allow the rich to play games with the economy so they are. Simple as that.
We're complaining about the obvious result of repealing all the rules (regulations are bad?) that protect us. A certain segment of us begged for this to happen, so it's happening.
This month they'll lie and say it's building season (every spring) so prices are up, don't repeat the lie
In July they'll say the California fires (every summer) caused the prices to go up, don't repeat the lie
In September they'll tell you it's hurricanes (every fall) that caused prices to go up, don't repeat the lie.
Take a break from being mad about transgendered teens playing sports (hey, those same people who told me about the sports also told me about the frozen OSB glue) and be mad you've been run amok.
Well said rojen
Quote from: rojen on May 06, 2021, 02:49:43 PM
The commodities brokers and their allies in the media tell you it's frozen OSB glue or hyperinflation or whatever other lie they feed you. Quit repeating them. We allow the rich to play games with the economy so they are. Simple as that.
We're complaining about the obvious result of repealing all the rules (regulations are bad?) that protect us. A certain segment of us begged for this to happen, so it's happening.
This month they'll lie and say it's building season (every spring) so prices are up, don't repeat the lie
In July they'll say the California fires (every summer) caused the prices to go up, don't repeat the lie
In September they'll tell you it's hurricanes (every fall) that caused prices to go up, don't repeat the lie.
Take a break from being mad about transgendered teens playing sports (hey, those same people who told me about the sports also told me about the frozen OSB glue) and be mad you've been run amok.
::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)
Steel prices have tripled now Bank Of America is sounding the alarm 🚨
Quote from: Walnut Beast on May 07, 2021, 02:32:21 AM
Steel prices have tripled now Bank Of America is sounding the alarm 🚨
Perfect just when I was going to weld up a metal gate for my property shortly
Boulders, anchor bolts and chains it is
I hear you! I bought some steel about 3 to 4 weeks ago 1/4 inch thick 2 1/2 square tubing 24 ft was 235 bucks
Bank of America was actually talking about the steel company stocks inflating due to the bubble in steel prices. They fear overproduction is coming and that stocks will tank. They are warning investors not to buy steel companies.
I wonder if BOA is short steel stocks with talk like that.
i dunno but i smell blood in the water. theres gonna be all sorts of bargains.
spf 1k bf hit $1600. this morning on the stock market, but I see it back down this afternoon $1576.
Significant expansions announced this week at multiple mills in the SE. Combined with the big expansion up in Maine I suppose we are finally seeing some of the capacity expansion that could drive log prices higher, finally.
West Fraiser is expanding 5 mills and Interfor is rebuilding one.
Quote from: Southside on May 05, 2021, 06:17:23 PM
Tesla lost in the range of $200 million selling vehicles last quarter. Playing with credits and Bitcoin is what saved them.
Now Tesla announced they will not accept crypto currency anymore. They received much backlash from people about crypto because of the extreme energy it takes to mine it. That goes against there values Musk stated. They won't sell their Bitcoin they have now. But they will be looking into more energy efficient crypto or wait till Bitcoin can do it more efficient. A day after Musk announced no crypto 365 billion wiped off crypto 😂. You can mine for Bitcoin at home if you get the computer stuff to do it. If you think a I Dry pulls some some energy try mining for crypto 😂
Beads and trinkets. Timeless.
Talked to a buddy in southern Indiana today. He said he saw 3/4 OSB at Menard's for $95.00 a sheet!!! smiley_huh ??? What the heck?? 95 bucks for glue and sawdust??
Quote from: azmtnman on May 14, 2021, 11:11:32 PM
Talked to a buddy in southern Indiana today. He said he saw 3/4 OSB at Menard's for $95.00 a sheet!!! smiley_huh ??? What the heck?? 95 bucks for glue and sawdust??
If there was 26.8 trillion shares of a company in circulation, theyd be pretty worthless too!
Quote from: azmtnman on May 14, 2021, 11:11:32 PM
Talked to a buddy in southern Indiana today. He said he saw 3/4 OSB at Menard's for $95.00 a sheet!!! smiley_huh ??? What the heck?? 95 bucks for glue and sawdust??
Not far off. I looked up Muncie and it was 61 and some change 🤬 WOW
We (me and my board of directors) have been talking about building 3 new cabins. I sent a material list to one of them on March 21. 7/16 OSB was $12.25. We kind of drug our feet so I sent an updated price list on April 21. 7/16 OSB was $43.29!!! A quick glance at my price sheet shows everything else up from 10-15% in that same period of time.
Just checked Lowes again. It's $54.10. That's just ridiculous!
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices. Theyre very temporary.
Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
Quote from: mike_belben on May 15, 2021, 02:53:11 AM
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices. Theyre very temporary.
Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
This is true, but there is the other stupid people that will decide they can get rich on this price bubble. Investing too much, based on the crazy prices. If you do your business plan on $10 boards and the price comes back to $5, people go broke.
NZ has tried price controls in past, and you are right, they don't work, and have been abandoned as a dumb idea. So, "recover" is possible, but they are a bad idea still. It was a bad political experiment.
They keep feeding us demand is up with all this COVID money. Well, if you're not working and you're getting that, how are you further ahead? Only way we get that money up here, as a non-business entity, is if not working, kind of unemployment. We don't get a $900 a week cheque from work, plus $2000 a month extra unless you have 4 kids (and you already had that money anyway before COVID). So the math don't work for higher demand unless you guys down south get paid from your employer plus government COVID on top. All construction around here is commercial, so steel not wood. Not a single house being built in my travels. Crabbe's mill yard is stuffed full of wood that has sat for months uncovered and getting a little grey around the edges. Still sawing and kilning. When it gets to a point of no return, they can shove it through the pellet mill. :D
Only the filthy rich are building with $2000/mbf 2 x's and $120 a sheet 1/2" spruce plywood. :D
Somebody is the gate keeper and it ain't the consumer, nor is it the loggers. If it were me I'd shut down logging until I got my share. It's just equipment, so tell the financier to come get it if they want it that bad. :D
Had a guy suggest you can sell biomass (low quality wood) for $60/cord. I said why would I do that when firewood is $300+ a cord? I wasn't raised a fool. :D
The last time price controls were enacted it didn't work .I doubt seriously if they ever will .It was comical in a way .The controls put on the auto industry didn't control extras such as whitewall tires, air conditioning etc .All they did was make those standard items and thus raised the prices .
Controls on wages caught me because I was an apprentice electrician at the time .Two or three of my periodic increases were stopped and I really could have used the extra money at that time .
The brotherhood of railroad engineers stopped that .It only took a four day strike and they got their raise and soon after there were no more price controls .
Need I remind the boycott dubbed the house wives protest on sugar .It only took two weeks and the bottom fell out of sugar prices .So it's simple enough don't buy any lumber .
The stock market, as I've said is ink on paper or rather a computer file some place .Historically it ebbs and flows but still long term returns about 11 percent .If you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen they say .That in 401K's you're ahead of the game any way ,the money was tax deferred .You have to draw out 4 percent yearly so that could fluctuate .BTW one of mine this year returned 37 percent and I have 4 of them .For that matter I don't even need them to still live good .If they tanked 40 percent I'm still ahead of the game and they will come back given enough time .I don't lose any sleep over the whole messy situation the world is in. I certainly cannot change it . ---more ---
I won't get into the politics of it but it wasn't that long ago they enacted a 20 dollar surcharge on credit cards .I just fired everyone of them .It wasn't too long they all wanted to be my buddy .If they do it again ,I'll fire them all again ,it's that simple .I've worked my entire life time for what I've got and I get greatly offended if some body tries to get their hands on my wallet .Actually junk yard dog furious .
Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 15, 2021, 04:33:28 AM
...
Had a guy suggest you can sell biomass (low quality wood) for $60/cord. I said why would I do that when firewood is $300+ a cord? I wasn't raised a fool. :D
Or sell it for kindling at $900 a cord :D
Quote from: Al_Smith on May 15, 2021, 04:53:26 AMThe stock market, as I've said is ink on paper or rather a computer file some place .Historically it ebbs and flows but still long term returns about 11 percent .If you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen they say
While it is just numbers on computer screen, the safer investments are actually a "share" in some real assets. You know, a factory, power station, something "real". Something that both generates profit, and gains (or at least retains) value. The more "speculative" shares tend to have less asset backing, and it becomes less clear what you actually own.
My late Father sold out of a high flying "investment" company before a Stock Market crash, because he realised all the "assets" it held were shares in other "investment" companies. House of cards stuff, there was no "real" assets or profit making business involved. The "profits" they recorded were merely other "house of cards" stocks going up in value.
As you say, if you invest in a "genuine" business, then it's assets should be increasing along with inflation, AND the business is is making a profit to either grow (increase in value) or pay a dividend. That will all go up and down with economic fortunes, but long term a spread portfolio should steadily increase.
Price of spf 1k on bloomberg dropped to $1435. From a high of $1800.or $1900. a week ago.
That's what I don't get about this underground "bit coin " thing .Sounds like a game for suckers and I don't want any part of it .
It wasn't that long ago they thought gold ,like krugerrands was the hot deal .A lot of hot air, they just wanted a brokerage fee out of the deal .
If I'm not mistaken good old Ben of kite flying fame once said a fool and his money are soon parted .He also said where there is not good drinking there is also not good living .Now mind you this was at the same time Mr Franklin thought he was a teenager with a twinkle in his eye using his charm on the cute little French ladies .Ben being Ben but he got his picture on a $100 bill which must say something . ;D
Quote from: Al_Smith.So it's simple enough don't buy any lumber
Like
Not from the big retail lumber yards anyway, local mom and pop mills might still be good though.
Quote from: azmtnman on May 15, 2021, 12:33:31 AM
We (me and my board of directors) have been talking about building 3 new cabins. I sent a material list to one of them on March 21. 7/16 OSB was $12.25. We kind of drug our feet so I sent an updated price list on April 21. 7/16 OSB was $43.29!!! A quick glance at my price sheet shows everything else up from 10-15% in that same period of time.
Just checked Lowes again. It's $54.10. That's just ridiculous!
4'x8' is 32 bf, fire up the mill and tell Lowe's to pound sand. ;)
Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-20/lumber-s-version-of-a-crack-spread-is-exploding-from-cheap-trees)
Interesting explanation from a fiber trader
Stumpage is low and LUMBER futures are high however, futures have been lowering for the past few days price I found was $1390/1000BF
Big chain Home store has treated 6x6x8's $48.92/each
should give me some leverage to price my environmentally friendly black Locust a bit higher.
D
Quote from: mike_belben on May 15, 2021, 02:53:11 AM
The real danger here isnt the stupid prices. Theyre very temporary.
Its that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
Last time we had national price controls was under Republican president Richard Nixon.
I mean, the plumber, electrician, excavator, framer, roofer, and landscapers I'm not hiring to work on my delayed new house build would probably appreciate the government stepping in and stopping commodities brokers (bipartisan campaign financiers) from driving the price of OSB to $60 a sheet, but the "stupid people" in this country don't realize it's actually the space lasers and critical race theory making lumber so high so here we are.
There was a time when people who traded commodities in high volume had to be able to take delivery of the commodities they traded. But regulations are bad and Buffy Richington the fourth can push lumber futures to $2000/mbf.
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining.
Bubbles make frenzied mal-investments.
Those frenzied fools deserve independent liquidations. Its all fun and games until lowes and home depot get a TBTF bailout.
Quote from: rojen on May 15, 2021, 10:05:03 AM
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining.
Yeah, thats me. You got me all figured out. Crawl back under whatever socialized rock you came from.
Nearly every commodity given enough time will see a correction .Some will be gleeful some will pull their hair out .
I have enough steel bar joists, I beams, standing seam roofing and siding to erect a 40 by 60 building .I don't have the lumber it will take though for nailers .I can wait it out which it will come down .If not I still have the steel items which are worth something ,probably more than I paid for them .
Quote from: rojen on May 15, 2021, 10:05:03 AM
There was a time when people who traded commodities in high volume had to be able to take delivery of the commodities they traded. But regulations are bad and Buffy Richington the fourth can push lumber futures to $2000/mbf.
Last year around May, oil futures went negative. As in, people were so desperate to not have to take delivery of oil that they were paying people to take their oil futures off their hands before the end of the month.
The markets are now primarily a means to an end in-themselves (speculation). And the value "created" by speculators gets to be spread out among the schmucks that actually need the commodity i.e. us.
Quote from: mike_belben on May 15, 2021, 10:08:18 AM
Quote from: rojen on May 15, 2021, 10:05:03 AM
You're clearly one of the people who have asked for this to happen so lay down in the bed you made for us and quit complaining.
Yeah, thats me. You got me all figured out. Crawl back under whatever socialized rock you came from.
Thank you for saying what needing to be said Mr. Belben.
Quote from: SPDM on May 15, 2021, 03:00:26 PM
Quote from: rojen on May 15, 2021, 10:05:03 AM
There was a time when people who traded commodities in high volume had to be able to take delivery of the commodities they traded. But regulations are bad and Buffy Richington the fourth can push lumber futures to $2000/mbf.
Last year around May, oil futures went negative. As in, people were so desperate to not have to take delivery of oil that they were paying people to take their oil futures off their hands before the end of the month.
The markets are now primarily a means to an end in-themselves (speculation). And the value "created" by speculators gets to be spread out among the schmucks that actually need the commodity i.e. us.
Very true we had chinese speculators (that went bellyup) buying all the oil they could saying it was cheaper than water (true also). Then a group of very savvy english day traders figured out that they could squeeze the oil market on closing day by hammering the delivery price on end of quarter closing. This was a recognized risk by many large companies but the new money (chinese entity) was not properly hedged and lost everything. English day traders scored over $600 million that afternoon, very good write ups about that in one of the financial reports (FT, or WSJ or something). The english day traders were a rough and tumble group of non college educated professional traders, not wall street types at all. They had a score for the ages. In the meantime...average joe at the gas pump was getting $1.50 gas and I had 3 offers for off road at less than a dollar a gallon. No money then and a 2000 gallon double walled fuel tank. Sigh...
I would not have the nerve to be a day trader and for that matter I don't gamble on anything .I have private investments ,mutual funds and 401 k's plus an inheritance in stocks .I have not touched them ,I don't need them .They are diversified enough if one tanks the others rise .
Oh the bankers who think they know more than me try their best but it's not their money it's mine .If I want to bury it in the back yard or stuff it in a mattress that's my business not theirs .
The nay sayers try to preach doom and gloom which frankly I don't .They can jump out of buildings if they want .I'll just sit on my patio under the hot sun of summer under an umbrella and watch them --of course with a few cold ones to stay hydrated and keep Budweiser in business . ;D
Quote from: Al_Smith on May 16, 2021, 09:39:18 AM
I would not have the nerve to be a day trader and for that matter I don't gamble on anything .I have private investments ,mutual funds and 401 k's plus an inheritance in stocks .I have not touched them ,I don't need them .They are diversified enough if one tanks the others rise .
Oh the bankers who think they know more than me try their best but it's not their money it's mine .If I want to bury it in the back yard or stuff it in a mattress that's my business not theirs .
The nay sayers try to preach doom and gloom which frankly I don't .They can jump out of buildings if they want .I'll just sit on my patio under the hot sun of summer under an umbrella and watch them --of course with a few cold ones to stay hydrated and keep Budweiser in business . ;D
That's the way to do it. Keep you head while others are losing theirs and you'll do well.
I think it's all how you look at things . My great grand mother, her son my grandfather ,my dad and his brothers did very well in the stock market over a period of time .I've done okay but not a record like I'm a "young Turk" or something.
Being the oldest I am administer of that estate and one of dads brokers ask me if I wanted to change anything with my share .My reply while I inherited his mechanical aptitude I did not his understanding of financial matters .The old man forgot more than I will ever know--let 'er ride----Really if you cut through the fog how much money does a person really need or really want ? ;)
Money is not the fruit of life. Its not the machine, its just the grease for the machine.
My life without money has been much more fulfilling than the one i had with it.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 15, 2021, 04:33:28 AM
They keep feeding us demand is up with all this COVID money. Well, if you're not working and you're getting that, how are you further ahead? Only way we get that money up here, as a non-business entity, is if not working, kind of unemployment. We don't get a $900 a week cheque from work, plus $2000 a month extra unless you have 4 kids (and you already had that money anyway before COVID). So the math don't work for higher demand unless you guys down south get paid from your employer plus government COVID on top. All construction around here is commercial, so steel not wood. Not a single house being built in my travels. Crabbe's mill yard is stuffed full of wood that has sat for months uncovered and getting a little grey around the edges. Still sawing and kilning. When it gets to a point of no return, they can shove it through the pellet mill. :D
Only the filthy rich are building with $2000/mbf 2 x's and $120 a sheet 1/2" spruce plywood. :D
Somebody is the gate keeper and it ain't the consumer, nor is it the loggers. If it were me I'd shut down logging until I got my share. It's just equipment, so tell the financier to come get it if they want it that bad. :D
Had a guy suggest you can sell biomass (low quality wood) for $60/cord. I said why would I do that when firewood is $300+ a cord? I wasn't raised a fool. :D
I hear you on this one...
I just took my processor off this weekend, switched back to a digger.
I'm giving my wood away, leaving the lower value stuff to rott in the road as its worthless now, we cant sell pulp at all.... Cutting for somebody else is simply a slap in the face and not even worth enough to consider trying again after the last shirt loosing endeavor.
I'm going to finish my roads that I want to get built and maybe do mining on the back side of my property to see what I can find. I'm abundant with clear fill and the best top soil you can ask for. I might try to see If I can sell some of it. I had somebody the other day poking around looking for boulders. Perhaps there is an opportunity. For now, the logging, as much as that's what I like to do, doesn't look very promising. At least in my neck of the woods. Perhaps Ill do some more next winter. That's when its the nicest in the woods anyway.
Quote from: mike_belben on May 15, 2021, 02:53:11 AMIts that stupid people will soon demand price controls, and our system cannot recover from that plague once it spreads to everything.
Price controls = shortage. Gas lines of the early 70's and lack of housing in NYC are examples.
Left alone, supply and demand will always equal each other at a given price. But that's another thread.
When those to whom lumber prices don't matter much have finished their projects, prices will come down and the rest of us will resume our projects. If the price of lumber was controlled or capped, then we'd all place our orders and wait who knows how long for delivery - shortage.
Right now lumber seems most constrained by trucking. I know that even hardwood mills and kilns can't ship lumber at the rates they want, no drivers. Why no drivers is another topic and one I don't have any impact on. I can only surmise that in many areas trucking still does not pay enough.
We're blessed to have trucking so our logs get out thank goodness.
Absolutely. Price controls create surplus of stuff no one needs and shortages of stuff everyone needs. They come from government trying to manage economy and misery is always the result.
People love the right to vote even if the political system is completely broken and everything government touches turns to mud.
In a free market, your dollar is your vote. Stop giving it to lowes and home depot. Just wait on your new porch, cruises and flights are cheap. Take one of those instead.
Quote from: nativewolf on May 17, 2021, 07:47:39 AM
Right now lumber seems most constrained by trucking. I know that even hardwood mills and kilns can't ship lumber at the rates they want, no drivers.
Lumber as a trucking commodity is a unique animal... The freight business has been going through these boom bust rate cycles for decades and the public just doesnt know what goes on behind the scenes.
...more on the later, gotta get kids ready.
The rates drivers are paid are not the biggest factor in many cases. I know locally guys make enough money in three or four days with their truck that it just gets parked - they don't have the desire to work any more than that and the wood does not get moved, see it time and time again.
Read an article over the past two weeks where a significant trucking company was saying the issue they are facing is that guys are happy making $70K a year driving a truck and just won't work past that. They throttle themselves to make the magic number and then park the truck. How do you fix that? If wages go up then miles and freight moved will actually go down.
How much per bd ft is poplar going for at the sawmill? This summer I want to build a 12 x 26 loft area in a pole building and could use 1"x8" poplar instead of 3/4" plywood. Could also use poplar 2x8s instead of spf store bought.
Got a call this morning guy wanted to buy my mill so he can saw his yard timber for his house and outbuildings he wants to build.
Quote from: Southside on May 17, 2021, 09:48:44 AM
Got a call this morning guy wanted to buy my mill so he can saw his yard timber for his house and outbuildings he wants to build.
Most mills are a year wait time now, I'm waiting until spring 2022, people are saying heck with this junk, I'd never pay what they are asking for lumber, we will see a correction I think once all these DIY fellas pick em up. Maybe not though obligatory"not an expert"
Quote from: Southside on May 17, 2021, 08:08:36 AM
The rates drivers are paid are not the biggest factor in many cases. I know locally guys make enough money in three or four days with their truck that it just gets parked - they don't have the desire to work any more than that and the wood does not get moved, see it time and time again.
Read an article over the past two weeks where a significant trucking company was saying the issue they are facing is that guys are happy making $70K a year driving a truck and just won't work past that. They throttle themselves to make the magic number and then park the truck. How do you fix that? If wages go up then miles and freight moved will actually go down.
But isn't that the point of life; to enjoy it? If the solution is to make people desperate enough that they must work 40+ hours a week to make ends meet then you can count me out.
I work more than 40 hours of week but that's because I can and do enjoy my work. Most people aren't so lucky.
Yes, @spdm that is reality and theory hitting head on. Theory says that should be a great lifestyle for many and attract new drivers. That is the free market sort of look and one I like, give it time, work at Walmart or drive a truck for more $ and less hours.
I've known a few of those on the road 24/7 50 to 51 weeks a year drivers. Home long enough to sign the divorce papers and pay the lawyer....no thank you, what miserable people to be around.
There has to be a better way to live and a better way to transport goods.
that is the hired driver reality. youll see your family exactly 3 days a month, youll see our dashboard with our cameras recording you picking your nose the rest of the time. we need the camera watching your every second for "safety." well.. unless the truck breaks, then you can see the fam 1 day this month because weve got this really really hot load of lumber for you to deliver right next to all the other mountains of lumber sitting in that really important big box parking lot.
oh and the gutless ugly plastic truck is governed at 62, for safety. and it automatically slams on the brakes when the crash avoidance system, which is smarter than you are, gets a snow glare. this is to make every other driver in hillcountry hate you for safety, to us, for liability insurance discounts so we can undercut the competitors and get all the worst freight. now if you do anything our onboard systems dont like we will have a miserable dispatcher who you have never even seen route you to the nearest hub for surprise termination, leaving you stranded 1800 miles from your home and your private vehicle, with a mountain of your stuff that cant go on the flight or bus home.
this is a super super common story of modern day hired driver. its hell. i didnt have any of that because i was lucky enough to catch an old fashioned cowboy trucking company desperate and willing to employ me with some unique stipulations, but old fashioned "outlaw" trucking is completely illegal. very very illegal, and every state trooper is tasked with ending your easy going outlaw trucker career.
i will get to lumber brokering later.
Quote from: SPDM on May 17, 2021, 11:02:51 AMBut isn't that the point of life; to enjoy it?
Guess I am more in the camp of life is about planting trees of which the shade I know I will never rest under. Honestly some glad those who came before me left more than they kept.
Quote from: Southside on May 17, 2021, 01:51:14 PMGuess I am more in the camp of life is about planting trees of which the shade I know I will never rest under. Honestly some glad those who came before me left more than they kept.
Ain't got time to build a future for my kids nor lay the foundation upon which my they will build their future if I'm in a truck 50 weeks of the year paying child support to my now ex-wife because I could not stop to smell the flowers.
And asking my fellow man to make less to work more hours so I can sell more of my product at a less-than market price ain't me neither.
And I mean the above with no disrespect. I worked my fair share of minimum wage jobs (and if you add up the hours I work on the farm I probably still do), but to ask the next generation to be content with slaving away so that the next generation after that can hopefully do the same ain't right.
I noticed that pulp futures are way up as well. I
think I understand why lumber is up compared to logs based on some of the comments made in this thread. Mill and trucking capacity is fixed while log supplies are way up. But pulp futures being up doesn't really make sense since the demand for paper products should be pretty consistent. Right?
Quote from: Southside on May 17, 2021, 09:48:44 AMGot a call this morning guy wanted to buy my mill
I am getting these calls almost weekly. My selling price is $55K which should put me out of the selling market. ;D
Might be because his next question was "Do you know where I can buy a sawmill?" and I gave him your number Magic Man. :D
Gee thanks. ::)
I don't sell lumber but hindsight says that I should have stacked a few hundred 2X4's. I have the logs and still could but the wet weather seems to be breaking and I have too many anxious customers waiting.
Called today on a 12x32 office area inside my pole barn. 2x6 92&5/8's studs almost 19.00 each and 3/4 osb 89.00 a sheet. I'll just sit and wait.
My next week's job will be quite different for me. I will be sawing framing lumber for a customer who intends to sell it for a profit rather than using it himself.
It is a road trip 106 miles away sawing 64 sixteen foot Longleaf Pine logs. I have pictures but won't share them until I begin sawing. The logs and log whacks look very nice.
With the prices offered for used mills, some of you may be able to take a year long vacation and buy your mills back when the sawmill bubble pops.
Quote from: Ed_K on May 15, 2021, 06:25:04 AM
Price of spf 1k on bloomberg dropped to $1435. From a high of $1800.or $1900. a week ago.
Ed it was me, im sorry. I found enough tinfoil and wire to get the dialup on my camper working and took out a short position on my margin account against SPF futures. I gotta think about me man. Hope you understand.
;D
This will make things better. ::)
copied from an article posted at Zero Hedge Tuesday.
The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders. New rates vary by company. West Fraser goes from 9 percent to 11.4 percent, Canfor from 4.6 to 21 percent, Resolute Forest from 20.3 to 30.2 percent, and J.D. Irving from 4.2 to 15.8 percent.
And just this afternoon a guy sent me a text trying to beat me up on 2x4's that he wants. Asked if I could "work on the price". Yup, I sure can add $1.00 to each of them. What? Not what you wanted? Ok - lets make it $2.00 more.
You sound fun, Southside😂
Quote from: Mooseherder on May 25, 2021, 10:12:50 PM
This will make things better. ::)
copied from an article posted at Zero Hedge Tuesday.
The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders. New rates vary by company. West Fraser goes from 9 percent to 11.4 percent, Canfor from 4.6 to 21 percent, Resolute Forest from 20.3 to 30.2 percent, and J.D. Irving from 4.2 to 15.8 percent.
Is it my tinfoil talking or is some group of rulers designing in another level of crisis?
The only thing I can come up with is politics. Planning on the mid terms and getting certain groups of big business on "their side". Keep rates low, folks will borrow the additional $$ is that logic. Bankers are happy, Wall St is happy, Koch brothers are happy. Pass around some additional stimulus $$ within memory time of the election and suddenly the people are happy too.....
Quote from: Southside on May 25, 2021, 10:42:42 PM
The only thing I can come up with is politics. Planning on the mid terms and getting certain groups of big business on "their side". Keep rates low, folks will borrow the additional $$ is that logic. Bankers are happy, Wall St is happy, Koch brothers are happy. Pass around some additional stimulus $$ within memory time of the election and suddenly the people are happy too.....
Yet they quickly forget about being in debt, until they have to start paying it back. Talk about some public manipulation :( Now, isn't that the wrong way to ultimately get the "crowd" in your corner? (rhetorical) "I" think it is. But, what do I know? smiley_eek_dropjaw
It is a simple move to make housing forever more expensive and unavailable to another generation of citizens. Forces more people onto government, into subsidized housing etc etc. Creates more forever cushy jobs for more bureaucrats.
When youve got a republic an element in it screams for a democracy. Once youve got a democracy an element in that cries out for socialism, and once youve got socialism theres nothing preventing the murderous from achieving communism. (edit) each group is willing to sabotage the existing structure to bring in the one they are "advocating" for under a banner of harmless activism and community organizing. there are many many many volumes on how to do all this, and theyre on every campus.
Only republics are stable. Once youve lost the republic, the rest are only transitions to the next phase. and that is the meaning behind ben franklin's supposed "a republic, if you cant keep it" quip.
free housing, food and healthcare arent features of a stable republic. theyre signs of a nation in transition. ive spent over half my life now, clutching at straws trying to reverse this process, unsucessfully. (/edit)
Quote from: mike_belben on May 25, 2021, 10:35:49 PM
Quote from: Mooseherder on May 25, 2021, 10:12:50 PM
This will make things better. ::)
copied from an article posted at Zero Hedge Tuesday.
The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders. New rates vary by company. West Fraser goes from 9 percent to 11.4 percent, Canfor from 4.6 to 21 percent, Resolute Forest from 20.3 to 30.2 percent, and J.D. Irving from 4.2 to 15.8 percent.
Is it my tinfoil talking or is some group of rulers designing in another level of crisis?
Our 401ks and pension plans haven't bought into lumber futures yet, so the big money needs to keep the prices high until enough of our money is in the market to cash out the commodities traders before the crash.
When you see a news article about one of the big teacher's pension funds, like the Ontario Teachers' Pension Fund or California Educators Fund, buying in, then you'll know the crash is coming.
$31.49 for a 2x6x10 construction at the local big box store yesterday. Price came down a couple bucks today, but still wow. Just wow. :o
Quote from: rojen on May 26, 2021, 09:49:45 AMOur 401ks and pension plans haven't bought into lumber futures yet, so the big money needs to keep the prices high until enough of our money is in the market to cash out the commodities traders before the crash.
When you see a news article about one of the big teacher's pension funds, like the Ontario Teachers' Pension Fund or California Educators Fund, buying in, then you'll know the crash is coming.
when a supposed epic money manager buys high and crashes a whole lot of trusting people's nest egg, i just chalk them up as an infiltrator or suicide bomber. they did what they came to do.
I sell my 2x6x10 for 8.50
If lumber is so expensive and in high demand maybe some of the big tooth aspen in our woods will someday be worth dragging out of the woods. Just had a sale marked and did not see a single one with a horizontal paint line. Seems to be no market for aspen logs.
Quote from: rojen on May 26, 2021, 09:49:45 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on May 25, 2021, 10:35:49 PM
Quote from: Mooseherder on May 25, 2021, 10:12:50 PM
This will make things better. ::)
copied from an article posted at Zero Hedge Tuesday.
The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will seek to double tariff rates on most Canadian softwood lumber, angering home builders. New rates vary by company. West Fraser goes from 9 percent to 11.4 percent, Canfor from 4.6 to 21 percent, Resolute Forest from 20.3 to 30.2 percent, and J.D. Irving from 4.2 to 15.8 percent.
Is it my tinfoil talking or is some group of rulers designing in another level of crisis?
Our 401ks and pension plans haven't bought into lumber futures yet, so the big money needs to keep the prices high until enough of our money is in the market to cash out the commodities traders before the crash.
When you see a news article about one of the big teacher's pension funds, like the Ontario Teachers' Pension Fund or California Educators Fund, buying in, then you'll know the crash is coming.
We have had all sorts of pensions involved with timber out here. Some got out bc logging is bad for the environment etc. There are plenty still involved though.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1622638315562.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1622638238)
But Mike that isn't true lol. Trailer prices have nearly doubled in the last year. Last January I priced out a dump trailer for 7400ish dollars, today the same spec trailer is 12,249 with a 6-8+ month lead time.
I'd be surprised if he WASN'T kidding. It's funny though, you've got to admit! 😂
My late uncle back when I was a kid used to talk about the Shoudah brothers. They were known for saying: "Shoudah bought land when it was cheap, Shoudah built years ago, Shoudah... Shoudah..." ;D
My wife bought an 18ft aboveground walmart swimming pool a week ago for $370. It went up to $1500 along with all their others. Shows the margin theyve all got in this stupid free money era.
Quote from: mike_belben on June 02, 2021, 09:52:48 PM
My wife bought an 18ft aboveground walmart swimming pool a week ago for $370. It went up to $1500 along with all their others. Shows the margin theyve all got in this stupid free money era.
I wanted a steel shipping container to make into a mini garage car shelter etc, 2 years ago when I was browsing then they were 1500-2000 CAD now they're 5000! I'm not even. I'm going full homestead over time. I'm not paying into this exploiting system, or at least as little as I can.
I am done. This cow is done being milked, dried out. Pockets hanged upside down. I’m changing my lifestyle heavily over the next bit.
I hit that stage when massachusetts made all duallies commercial and suddenly i couldnt use any of my homemade trailers anymore. Real crime wasnt getting cleaned up but the definition of crime was broadened to include me, a taxpaying veteran, and it was getting enforced on me at great expense. Any legal way i tried to support myself had so many tributes paid to everyone else that it wasnt much better than staying in the projects for free so i had no choice but to leave.
Spoke to a local lumber yard manager the other day. OSB is still on the rise. 2x4x8 came down $50.00/M two weeks ago and $100.00/M last week. Don't know if this is the start of something or not.
Quote from: customsawyer on June 07, 2021, 06:58:12 AM
Spoke to a local lumber yard manager the other day. OSB is still on the rise. 2x4x8 came down $50.00/M two weeks ago and $100.00/M last week. Don't know if this is the start of something or not.
Sounds like it's over.
Over the last week the price on the stock market has dropped to the low $1200s per 1mbf.
So to put it into a daily number, we are talking $5.50 gas down from $7.00 and everyone is happy again?
Hardwood lumber prices have moved up higher and are still steadily increasing. In this week's Hardwood Market, 4/4 FAS poplar was $1.99/bf and red oak was actually lower at $1.93/bf. Never seen poplar (yellow poplar) sell for more than red oak. White oak prices have gone up crazy. 4/4 FAS white oak at $4.18/bf. 8/4 white oak at $6.19 versus 8/4 walnut at $6.45. Lace up your boot straps tight!
Not to derail the topic but related to building as well, metal roofing panels just jumped up $5 per 8' sheet overnight
at the big box stores. I know because i need some for a new shed being built.
Found another supplier who hadn't raised price yet but will be with the next shipment.
Softwood has been falling steadily, nice gradual slide in prices.
Quote from: nativewolf on June 10, 2021, 07:05:52 AM
Softwood has been falling steadily, nice gradual slide in prices.
Hope they don't fall too much. I'd like it to stay around 1000/mbf. We are gonna start a decent softwood job in July or August and would really like that price to stay up.
I hear you, it was a bit frothy But the decline has been slow. Lots of new capacity announced in SE of USA. A slow decline and leveling off (say 1000) would be great for softwood landowners and loggers as it would encourage some higher log pricing.
I don't think loggers will ever see more, because there are too many of them content to work for too little. If there was ever a time loggers should be making a pile of cash it is now.
Quote from: barbender on June 10, 2021, 06:31:50 PM
I don't think loggers will ever see more, because there are too many of them content to work for too little. If there was ever a time loggers should be making a pile of cash it is now.
Many out here are, although a poorly run business will always be that. Just heard of a local company going down. Selling 10ish pieces of equipment. Might buy a piece or two myself if I can. Just a few years ago they bought a new machine just for the tax write-off. Don't know what happened. They were making lots of cash for a long time.
Quote from: quilbilly on June 10, 2021, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: barbender on June 10, 2021, 06:31:50 PM
I don't think loggers will ever see more, because there are too many of them content to work for too little. If there was ever a time loggers should be making a pile of cash it is now.
Many out here are, although a poorly run business will always be that. Just heard of a local company going down. Selling 10ish pieces of equipment. Might buy a piece or two myself if I can. Just a few years ago they bought a new machine just for the tax write-off. Don't know what happened. They were making lots of cash for a long time.
Buddy of mine came over from P.A. last weekend and said even Alder prices are high over there. To many guys over here to see prices move much. Boise gave $600 for peelers for a month and bought enough wood for the summer. Wont even buy now.. Stuck sending nicer wood to Idaho for less than $500 now. Fire season could change fall prices but right now mills are full.
For better or worse the price of lumber in Chicago fell 18% this week. Sawmills are getting back to normal? Trucking? Switch to rail? I have no idea.
I do know that one of our best buyers mill is struggling getting back to work, only 3 days a week last month and this month due to lack of people. Time to cut those govt checks off I would say, you have a vaccine if you wanted one.
Quote from: BAN on June 11, 2021, 10:37:56 PM
Quote from: quilbilly on June 10, 2021, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: barbender on June 10, 2021, 06:31:50 PM
I don't think loggers will ever see more, because there are too many of them content to work for too little. If there was ever a time loggers should be making a pile of cash it is now.
Many out here are, although a poorly run business will always be that. Just heard of a local company going down. Selling 10ish pieces of equipment. Might buy a piece or two myself if I can. Just a few years ago they bought a new machine just for the tax write-off. Don't know what happened. They were making lots of cash for a long time.
Buddy of mine came over from P.A. last weekend and said even Alder prices are high over there. To many guys over here to see prices move much. Boise gave $600 for peelers for a month and bought enough wood for the summer. Wont even buy now.. Stuck sending nicer wood to Idaho for less than $500 now. Fire season could change fall prices but right now mills are full.
Are they still planning on increasing the cut for the Okanogan NF? If so that won't help either. The company going under is for lack of trucks. Huge shortage out here. If you don't pay $25 an hour you can't even get a rookie in the seat. When most of the industrial production sides get 20+ loads per day, finding those ten trucks is hard.
Quote from: WDH on June 07, 2021, 09:44:33 PM
Hardwood lumber prices have moved up higher and are still steadily increasing. In this week's Hardwood Market, 4/4 FAS poplar was $1.99/bf and red oak was actually lower at $1.93/bf. Never seen poplar (yellow poplar) sell for more than red oak. White oak prices have gone up crazy. 4/4 FAS white oak at $4.18/bf. 8/4 white oak at $6.19 versus 8/4 walnut at $6.45. Lace up your boot straps tight!
Sir, do you perchance have a link to that market price for the average layman to view. This is my first post, and been using this forum to understand the market better for someone that has just inherited a sizeable few plots to manage. @WDH (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=4370) ... and thank you for your time.
Sir, the Hardwood Market Report is a subscription service that you have to buy. It is $320per year. You can view the Report on-line, but you have to be a subscriber with a login and password. If you have a specific question, I will try to answer it for you.
Quote from: WDH on June 13, 2021, 07:21:23 AM
Sir, the Hardwood Market Report is a subscription service that you have to buy. It is $320per year. You can view the Report on-line, but you have to be a subscriber with a login and password. If you have a specific question, I will try to answer it for you.
Thank you sir, you eased my mind with just knowing the lumber prices I saw were not all telling the true market value... I now know that hardwood and softwood are different markets and thus when I see the wild fluctuations that does not mean my property has dropped in value overnight.
I imagine the ethics of the site do not allow a glimpse of what that report would look like, but I might be able to see an older report that gives me an idea if it is worth the expenditure. I will see what google (Startpage or DuckDuckGo) lets me see. But just knowing that lumber is not one big lump market value did my heart good.
Quote from: LowOil on June 15, 2021, 03:16:32 AMI now know that hardwood and softwood are different markets and thus when I see the wild fluctuations that does not mean my property has dropped in value overnight
That hasn't happened. The reported drops are basically the softwood ( pretty much construction lumber) starting to head back down to "normal" after some pandemic associated supply chain issues.
Internationally (and in the US), log prices haven't changed much, and that's what people here are lamenting. Price of construction lumber has more than doubled, but the price paid for logs hasn't changed. That's because the "bottleneck" is in the sawmills and distribution. They are not having to pay extra for logs as they can still source all they can process for the normal price. "Someone" is making a huge profit somewhere, but it's not the land owners, or loggers.
The log prices do vary of course, but for the land owner, that's more about timing your harvest. It's not like corn or beans where you HAVE to harvest it in a certain week. If prices are low right now (and you don't need the $$ this year) then you can leave the trees standing and wait a couple of years for the price cycle to move on. If log prices get too low, no one want's to sell their trees, and low supply brings the prices up again.
I believe that the Hardwood market Report will give you a complimentary copy of the weekly report if you are considering subscribing. You should ask them.
Future prices have come down 40% or so since mid-May. This is "random length" - not sure if hardwood, softwood, or some mix of the two. Regardless, I'd guess the trend is the same for both HW and SW.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/58760/Lumber_Futures.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1623757419)
Random Lengths is softwood only. Hardwoods are reported on the Hardwood Market Report.
The report today for here says lumber price dropped by 20% and will drop more here shortly
DAT said freight rates have stopped climbing and are holding steady as loads decrease. So that marks the freight peak.
Ocean freight is still climbing. Second wave inbound?
The box stores haven't lowered prices any.
The report was just this week so it will take abit for the lumber yards to drop put everything shows here the price is going down , Lumber yards are starting to fill back up with lumber so that is a sign as well plus once these interest rates start to climb which they will that will make it really drop
I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with ocean freight. Down here at our inland port they are not taking any export containers. Must have almost
3,000 full one sitting on the ground waiting to ship down to Charleston. The chassis lot is almost always empty. They used to have hundreds in the back yard. We are still pulling stuff out and delivering.
Our other freight business is just growing like crazy. We are still picking up new customers. The people we haul timber for in containers are just waiting for the port to open up again.
by the time western society figures it out the damage will have already been done. imo its all the usual china orchestrated games to destabilize our market pricing, just like the scrap boom/bust they pulled over on us.
every article has a different story about the why and how but an empty container shortage is the result of this round. and that means having to pay more for a can to export USA goods which means less profit coming back to america. but more cost is continually shoveled onto america. piling on every last trick in the book to try to collapse "late stage imperial capitalism" once and for all. if they dont haul our freight off our ports then our industries cant make their payments because they arent getting paid. bury us all in debt.
notice that the prices of everything are astronomical but none of the american producers are gaining much extra (farmers, loggers, manufacturers et al) after the astronomically rising costs or worker shortages (due to the inability to compete with welfare)
its brilliant.
we quit shipping high grade about a month ago and I was told again yesterday do not cut any high grade bush, leave it stand
HW loggers did really really well this past winter/spring Mike. Really well. If you didn't do well, time to sell your iron. The HW prices have stayed up.
Containers are starting to become available for norfolk and baltimore, or so I hear.
I've been told that by August container issues will have cleared up. Other than logs and a few commodities we really don'd send much stuff to China (part of the problem). Containers everywhere have been short though, same issue shipping to India or Germany from what I hear.
Softwoods fell below $1000 and are still falling, my wall street family guy is on the AT somewhere in Maine and I hate to bug him with business while he is doing a bucket list item. What a great time to walk across Maine, he'll wrap up in Georgia in the fall.
Quote from: LogPup on June 16, 2021, 08:41:00 PM
I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with ocean freight. Down here at our inland port they are not taking any export containers. Must have almost
3,000 full one sitting on the ground waiting to ship down to Charleston. The chassis lot is almost always empty. They used to have hundreds in the back yard. We are still pulling stuff out and delivering.
Our other freight business is just growing like crazy. We are still picking up new customers. The people we haul timber for in containers are just waiting for the port to open up again.
Interesting, what sort of logs are getting exported? How do you guys manage finding drivers?
Quote from: nativewolf on June 17, 2021, 06:18:37 AM
HW loggers did really really well this past winter/spring Mike. Really well. If you didn't do well, time to sell your iron.
So did all the scrap operators for the boom years of china's insane metal buying frenzy when they needed to build all those fake cities.
#1 prepared hit $400/t. Everyone was suddenly a scrapper. The public was hauling in so fast that new shearing and loading equipment was required to keep up or yards couldnt fit any more and had to close until truckloads went out to make room. Theres always great money in a boom.
Then poof. China shut it all off. No one else. Complete tumble, light iron was refused, #1 prepared got down to like $60/t. Basically like a pulp quota. schnitzer global says we're full, unless you wanna give it away.
Who is buying huge dollar, slightly used specialized equipment when the entire industry is suffering the same crisis and cant afford what they just bought 2 years prior?
Whenever US housing crashes china will have some excuse to stop buying logs and it wont be a good time to have a big shiny new processor payment because low log prices across the planet means everyone will be shedding the same type of iron.
New industrial finance tends to hover around a 7 year term. Thats why the boom and busts are getting so much closer. The boom gets us into new debt and the bust has to come before its paid off.
"Asian contagion" alright. Thanks globalism.
Scrape steel is the highest ever here and not by just abit . China is very smart and now controls most things but we let them do it so it's as much our fault if not more our fault . . Things will settle down here before to long . I see alot more logging equipment coming up for sale
Quote from: quilbilly on June 13, 2021, 12:08:21 AM
Quote from: BAN on June 11, 2021, 10:37:56 PM
Quote from: quilbilly on June 10, 2021, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: barbender on June 10, 2021, 06:31:50 PM
I don't think loggers will ever see more, because there are too many of them content to work for too little. If there was ever a time loggers should be making a pile of cash it is now.
Many out here are, although a poorly run business will always be that. Just heard of a local company going down. Selling 10ish pieces of equipment. Might buy a piece or two myself if I can. Just a few years ago they bought a new machine just for the tax write-off. Don't know what happened. They were making lots of cash for a long time.
Buddy of mine came over from P.A. last weekend and said even Alder prices are high over there. To many guys over here to see prices move much. Boise gave $600 for peelers for a month and bought enough wood for the summer. Wont even buy now.. Stuck sending nicer wood to Idaho for less than $500 now. Fire season could change fall prices but right now mills are full.
Are they still planning on increasing the cut for the Okanogan NF? If so that won't help either. The company going under is for lack of trucks. Huge shortage out here. If you don't pay $25 an hour you can't even get a rookie in the seat. When most of the industrial production sides get 20+ loads per day, finding those ten trucks is hard.
Last I heard the Colville national forest is trying to take in the Okanagan. The Colville is pushing 100million a year so yea its changing the private liog market. No one can find drivers or operators over here either.
Really pretty area from pics online (never been to that corner of the world). Colville is harvesting 100 million feet a year? Is this a long delayed and needed fuel reduction harvest?
There's getting to be a lot of CTL action out there.
Quote from: nativewolf on June 18, 2021, 07:29:08 AM
Really pretty area from pics online (never been to that corner of the world). Colville is harvesting 100 million feet a year? Is this a long delayed and needed fuel reduction harvest?
That's a lot of wood moved?
Glad to see the majority of people refused to pay the prices.
"There has really been a curtailing of demand, based on the level of pricing," said David Flanagan, president of Viking Lumber. "People have just said, 'Nope, I'm not gonna do it at that price.' And that's started to show in the marketplace, the fact that people are just not willing to pay that much."
https://bangordailynews.com/2021/06/15/business/after-historic-highs-lumber-prices-are-finally-beginning-to-drop/
Media like the BDN helped cause the price of Lumber to go up. They're in the club that needs to be held to account. Where is the whistle-blower for this corrupt rag? ;)
Ironic of all places Viking Lumber complaining about high lumber prices. That's all they ever know there.
Quote from: Skeans1 on June 18, 2021, 02:56:37 PM
Quote from: nativewolf on June 18, 2021, 07:29:08 AM
Really pretty area from pics online (never been to that corner of the world). Colville is harvesting 100 million feet a year? Is this a long delayed and needed fuel reduction harvest?
That's a lot of wood moved?
The Wenatchee-okanogon is 3.5 million acres and the colville is 1.5 million. Not much for wilderness area I don't think either.
Quote from: Mooseherder on June 18, 2021, 08:10:17 PM
Media like the BDN helped cause the price of Lumber to go up. They're in the club that needs to be held to account. Where is the whistle-blower for this corrupt rag? ;)
I agree the B d n is way out there
Quote from: Southside on June 18, 2021, 08:13:33 PM
Ironic of all places Viking Lumber complaining about high lumber prices. That's all they ever know there.
Do you know David? He his the hemlock king around here. Couple yrs back he told me they were sawing over a million ft a yr.
Quote from: snowstorm on June 19, 2021, 06:23:04 AM
Quote from: Southside on June 18, 2021, 08:13:33 PM
Ironic of all places Viking Lumber complaining about high lumber prices. That's all they ever know there.
Do you know David? He his the hemlock king around here. Couple yrs back he told me they were sawing over a million ft a yr.
You got it mixed up, I'm the hemlock king. I'm no David either lol lol lol
No, I don't know him. Only ever been to the retail store there outside of Belfast back when I worked on Islesboro, before they really expanded. Nice material, but always top dollar.
Quote from: quilbilly on June 18, 2021, 09:27:01 PM
Quote from: Skeans1 on June 18, 2021, 02:56:37 PM
Quote from: nativewolf on June 18, 2021, 07:29:08 AM
Really pretty area from pics online (never been to that corner of the world). Colville is harvesting 100 million feet a year? Is this a long delayed and needed fuel reduction harvest?
That's a lot of wood moved?
The Wenatchee-okanogon is 3.5 million acres and the colville is 1.5 million. Not much for wilderness area I don't think either.
Just made me think what someone like Weyco has go through the Longview yard a month is over 10 times that amount.
Free fall by end of summer like I told the last hardware store I was in.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/lumber-price-Jne18-2021.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1624125211)
Interestingly, unlike softwood, which shot up like a rocket, hardwood prices crept up a little bit along. I expect that if they come down, they will also creep back down, not like softwood which goes up like the rocket and come down like a crashing rocket.
Is there a hardwood futures market for algorithms to day trade like there is a softwood one?
This is exactly why I didn't raise my prices much other than on cypress. I raised them a little to compensate for the increase cost of consumables and such but I refuse to gouge my customers. Cypress log cost have shot through the roof so I had no choice but to raise the price of the cypress lumber and timbers.
Quote from: nativewolf on June 17, 2021, 06:20:30 AM
Quote from: LogPup on June 16, 2021, 08:41:00 PM
I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with ocean freight. Down here at our inland port they are not taking any export containers. Must have almost
3,000 full one sitting on the ground waiting to ship down to Charleston. The chassis lot is almost always empty. They used to have hundreds in the back yard. We are still pulling stuff out and delivering.
Our other freight business is just growing like crazy. We are still picking up new customers. The people we haul timber for in containers are just waiting for the port to open up again.
Interesting, what sort of logs are getting exported? How do you guys manage finding drivers?
We were doing a lot of white oak. As far as drivers go it is hit and miss. We advertise and use a temp agency to see if they will work out for us. Everyone
in our office has a CDL. So when needed an office person can jump in the truck and cover a load.
Hardwood Lumber is still climbing for most species and grades. Record Pricing on many species and grades. Bubble may burst at any time but for now even I could be a successful lumber salesman LOL
This week, all hardwood prices held firm at last week's level except for hard maple and walnut, which increased. Hard maple increased by about $40 per MBF and walnut at $75 per MBF.
Somebody told me over the weekend he has seen a lot of walnut logs moving on the roads here.
Walnut was over 5.70/bf for 4/4 FAS rough kiln dried tractor trailer load quantity F.O.B sawmill, which means loaded on truck at sawmill, so does not include freight to the distributors. Most retail prices for FAS 4/4 planed and kiln dried walnut are north of $12.00/bf.
@WDH (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=4370) Sorry to bother but could we trouble you for pricing on green WO? 5/4 and 9/4
Many thanks
Green White Oak - Appalachian Area
5/4 FAS $3000
1F $2990
#1C $1375
#2A $845
8/4 FAS $3675
1F $3665
#1C $1415
There wont be much walnut left soon with prices like that.
Then the price will go even higher...
as they say in the south..
I knowed it.
Talked with a guy here local that does some logging he tells me no one here is buying walnut and they are having to send it to Missouri to sell it and that prices there aren't great. ??????????
Not only did I knowed it, Mike. I been knowin' it all my life!😊
Quote from: LeeB on June 22, 2021, 07:09:53 PM
Talked with a guy here local that does some logging he tells me no one here is buying walnut and they are having to send it to Missouri to sell it and that prices there aren't great. ??????????
That's when you want to be a log buyer, we truck walnut 500 miles, 500 miles you'd be in ohio and it would sell just fine.
here the mill will buy anything but prefers lower grade hard maple , no high grade . Does not want walnut unless it has to come . they pretty much shipped everything in their yard so sounds like they are going to sit for abit
Softwood continues to tumble....
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/11009/lumber-June23-2021.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1624613914)
Quote from: SwampDonkey on June 25, 2021, 05:39:56 AMSoftwood continues to tumble....
Somebody needs to tell the box stores. Prices have not dropped even a penny here.
2x6x10 construction $19.92 at the local big box store, down from $31.49 a month back. Though 1/2" OSB plywood is $47.15 a sheet (I can remember back in the good old days buying it for $8 a sheet). :o
$12 a sheet 3 years ago here to build the house. I sure won't pay that, ever, for chips not sent to the digester. ;D
Quote from: LeeB on June 25, 2021, 09:28:47 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on June 25, 2021, 05:39:56 AMSoftwood continues to tumble....
Somebody needs to tell the box stores. Prices have not dropped even a penny here.
I've been tracking a few items at Lowes and they took another jump up yesterday.
Prices will drop as inventory is sold, or at some point move it at a loss. I can hold off a lot longer than Lowes. ;D
Pretty soon someone's going to blink, I thought the Menard's I walked through Wednesday evening had lots of inventory sitting in the building. I can make 3/4 inch sheeting boards cheaper than the 2 plus dollars a square foot they want for 1/2 inch ply... Somebody will drop a price to move inventory and they will chase it to the bottom. I wonder if Lowe's will eat Home Depot or Vice versa... leaving less competition in the wake. I never thought that 80's movie that talked about all the restaurants becoming Taco Bell after the restaurant wars was anymore than screen writers fantasy. Now.....? :o
Lumber Wars: Too Big To Fail Part 3.
"Let the bailouts begin"
My area Home Depot still has OSB at $ 52.05 a 7/16 x 4' x 8' sheet. I can only assume that the rest of their lumber is still priced outrageous also. I have lots of patience.
Had the unfortunate privilege of going to home depot last night was looking at prices, 5/8 zip system plywood 105 dollars a sheet. think_notMakes me very happy knowing my nailbags and carpentry tools are sitting idle for awhile or I'd simply be contributing to the insanity. Perfectly content working on the farm and doing things others won't or can't do
Yep. Let the top tier of sheep run out of money. I refuse to play.
I'm planning a house build for possibly next spring and if the lumber prices aren't back to semi-normal I'm just gonna go 6"cmu walls with brick exterior. I am a mason by trade though..
You would think with the futures tanking, one of the big box stores would pull the trigger on sale pricing early to beat the others so they can re-stock at lower rates and cut losses.... If the price isn't down enough by spring I'll just use metal studs I guess :D
Where does one get crystal balls that can see prices 5 years in advance?
Lumber prices have bottomed out, but are likely to stay double the historical average for at least the next 5 years, trader says (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/lumber-prices-bottom-market-futures-stinson-dean-elevated-supply-demand-2021-6-1030556454)
My crystal ball is telling me that retail big box lumber prices will remain high as a "new normal" however the small guy lumber side will see a hard downturn whenever the bubble bursts with housing.
Until then i speculate there will be some huge middle markup between the log producer and the lumber consumer that none of us get to enjoy. Little guy sawmilling will become quite competitive from all the new mills.
Curious what happens to log prices. Have not heard of legions of new loggers jumping in to supply the woodmizer army.
DAT believes freight rates have plateau'd
QuoteJune 14 - 20 - Americans tend to kick-start "grilling season" in the four weeks between Memorial Day and Independence Day. We normally see capacity tighten during this time, but spot rates for all three equipment types remained unchanged. It's becoming more likely any seasonal July 4 peak in reefer and dry van rates will be a "dead cat bounce" — or a temporary upward burst in a downward trend.
JK Moving Services, a Virginia based moving company, is now advertising a $100,000 per year minimum salary for its CDL drivers. WalMart is advertising a $8,500 signing bonus on top of its $85,000 per year for its first year drivers. Trucking is a major issue for us here in Virginia. The drivers that want to work can make bank for one of the over the road companies and half of the guys that we have in the woods won't show up after Wednesday if you are having a good week.......and the baby momma money kicks in this coming month. :-\
Wud
Funny you mention JK moving services...I'd like to have him as a client. Great conservationist, hunter sort of guy.
My step-daughter and her husband have been living with his Mom for over 2 years.They need a house.
My gift to them is sawing the framing package and siding to help them out.Local excavating contractors are bringing nice pine logs to me.
The old man and his LT30 are getting a good workout.
We have common sense building codes here in our small town,no inspector or zoning.If you build it and it falls on your head it's no one's fault but your own.Good trade practices are a given.
Trouble we had over here was they built then they sold it and it fell on someone else's head and you know lawyers they went after the townships because they were the ones issuing building permits, so after a couple of municipalities were found liable and had to pay damages the Ontario Municipal Board introduced the building codes and inspectors and then eventually the zoning bylaws because people complained about what their neighbors were doing for one reason or another.
Prices have finally started to drop slightly in the box stores. 2x4x8 is $7.98, down from $8.37. Treated is $5.98, down from about $8.50. Big drop on treated. Not so much on untreated.
I'm not sure that it's making any kind of sense, but at least it's coming down.
Today utility grade lumber prices are an average of $700 US, Canada #2 and better is $1100 Canadian dollars. Still falling, $300 USD price drop this week. OSB been holding at an average of ~$50 a sheet for 2 weeks, down from 3 weeks ago.
Heard a story that burned my biscuits today. A couple i know paid $70some a sheet for 3/4 plywood at the bigbox. Returned it a few days later and only got $40something back "because the price dropped."
Imo thats nearly a crime.
Did they have a receipt?
In my opinion that is a crime
Quote from: hacknchop on June 29, 2021, 09:34:13 PM
Trouble we had over here was they built then they sold it and it fell on someone else's head and you know lawyers they went after the townships because they were the ones issuing building permits, so after a couple of municipalities were found liable and had to pay damages the Ontario Municipal Board introduced the building codes and inspectors and then eventually the zoning bylaws because people complained about what their neighbors were doing for one reason or another.
Same situation here. It wasn't the owner builders that stuffed things up, they tended to "over build" and use a 12x2 when an Engineer might calculate it needed a 10x2 etc. It was the larger operations that were building large developments, and trying to cut costs as much as possible. When the houses started to leak and rot, they went out of business, and the current home owners would go after the local Council for approving the design and inspecting / approving it.
Quote from: newoodguy78 on July 01, 2021, 12:04:45 AM
In my opinion that is a crime
I they had a receipt, then it arguably was. If they didn't, then it's worth what the sticker price on the shelf says it's worth.
If they had bought it pre the crazy prices for $30 and tried to return it when it was worth $70, who's in the right? Heck they might have got the $70.
Quote from: Ianab on July 01, 2021, 02:35:24 AM
Quote from: newoodguy78 on July 01, 2021, 12:04:45 AM
In my opinion that is a crime
I they had a receipt, then it arguably was. If they didn't, then it's worth what the sticker price on the shelf says it's worth.
If they had bought it pre the crazy prices for $30 and tried to return it when it was worth $70, who's in the right? Heck they might have got the $70.
@Ianab (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=460) I seriously doubt it.
I will have to ask.
I checked our local Lowes for 7/16 OSB and $52.88 for 4'x8' and $49.98 for 4'x9' so nearly 3 bucks cheaper for the extra foot, might make sense to someone. Still way too high!
Quote from: gspren on July 01, 2021, 07:12:21 PM
I checked our local Lowes for 7/16 OSB and $52.88 for 4'x8' and $49.98 for 4'x9' so nearly 3 bucks cheaper for the extra foot, might make sense to someone. Still way too high!
Stuff is always priced at what the buyers will stomach - supply & demand; not what it costs to produce. 9ft panels are not as useful to as many buyers as 8ft panels. I'm no building expert, but that what the price is telling us.
Yup, agreed. Thats why advil is $10 and a cancer med is $5k though production cost is probably comparable. Price setters is supply and price takers is those on the demand side.
Quote from: mike_belben on July 02, 2021, 11:14:55 AM
Yup, agreed. Thats why advil is $10 and a cancer med is $5k though production cost is probably comparable. Price setters is supply and price takers is those on the demand side.
Sure the physical plant cost may be the same but the IP and cost to get approved will literally be in the tens if not hundreds of millions for any new drug. That money has to get paid. But yes, they are selling to a must buy market if it means life or death.
Building a small cabin (10x12 with 6' covered deck) and used up the last of the partial plywood sheets I bought at auction 3 years ago (4 pallets). Still had to sheath the roof so I bought 12 sheets of 1/2" OSB to do it. They asked if I wanted to know the price and I said no, that I was happier not knowing.
Bill showed up in the mail and it was $900+ (including roll of house wrap on the same invoice). The OSB was only $50 less than the steel and all the trimmings for the roof.
I knew it was going to be expensive but I'm using my own lumber for the rest of it so it's hardly cost anything. Don't have any wood/logs appropriate for board sheathing nor do I think I would have been willing to give up the time this summer to saw it even if I did.
Our lumberyard has a lot of packs of lumber and OSB marked "sold" that were bought in advance (when prices were already high) for jobs that have now been put on hold. I was joking with him that once prices go down they'll probably want to return them and then buy them back at the cheaper price. He didn't think it was so funny and is actually a little worried about that happening.
Alan
I think some of them material handlers will wish they never bought material at those prices to begin with. Sometimes greed bites your ash tree. :D I think housing prices are about to collapse to along with $80,000 pickup trucks despite the talking heads that like to spew mis-information. There are not that many wealthy families. :D :D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 03, 2021, 03:31:45 AM
I think some of them material handlers will wish they never bought material at those prices to begin with. Sometimes greed bites your ash tree. :D I think housing prices are about to collapse to along with $80,000 pickup trucks despite the talking heads that like to spew mis-information. There are not that many wealthy families. :D :D
Yup I agree, where's the money to come from? The maritimes is mostly poor, go outside Halifax or Moncton and it's just rural farm land and woods.
There are two things that are helping. From what I've been able to gather most folks on here are from the Midwest and poorer parts of Canada. Those two things are low interest rates and massive amounts of money on the coasts.
The lower interest rate more than makes up for the extra 30k in lumber. Look at a 30 year fixed for 250k and plug in the diff between a 3% and 4% interest rate.
The other thing is the massive amount of money on the west and east coasts, specifically the cities. With the ability to use zoom and work online many of those folks are fleeing high priced city dwellings for the country and they can afford it. Where I live the average income is 3/4 of the state ave and probably half of the Seattle ave or even less. Seattle is two hours away. An easy once per week or month commute if you're able to buy a house for half with more acreage and footage. All that to say, lumber may be high for us, but not those who are the ones buying these houses and building. There is a ton of cash out there and we lower class folks are only getting it through gentrification.
East coast of Canada doesn't fit the model of a 'money coast'. The wealth left here in 1867 except about 12 businesses where 2-3 generations have never worked since except moving money around to make more. Businesses sold off to Quebec syndicates. :D :D Oland, Sussex, Sadler, Karnes, Baxter, Lantic to get ya started. ;)
Its a trap. The PE ratio on wall street is stretched up like a rubber band. When it snaps back down and those work from home city folks who moved to a big country mortgage are suddenly laid off when the financial capital that kept them employed vaporizes...
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 03, 2021, 12:20:50 PM
East coast of Canada doesn't fit the model of a 'money coast'. The wealth left here in 1867 except about 12 businesses where 2-3 generations have never worked since except moving money around to make more. Businesses sold off to Quebec syndicates. :D :D Oland, Sussex, Sadler, Karnes, Baxter, Lantic to get ya started. ;)
The maritimes and NS in particular were looking really good to settlers at first. Heck the town shelburne 10 min away was biggest town in the new world in the late 1700s. The population was around 15000 in 1790. It's now 1500. Basically they realized this land is rocky as heck and not good to farm, so they packed up and went west for greener pastures in the 1800s.
Quote from: HemlockKing on July 03, 2021, 05:04:20 PM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 03, 2021, 12:20:50 PM
East coast of Canada doesn't fit the model of a 'money coast'. The wealth left here in 1867 except about 12 businesses where 2-3 generations have never worked since except moving money around to make more. Businesses sold off to Quebec syndicates. :D :D Oland, Sussex, Sadler, Karnes, Baxter, Lantic to get ya started. ;)
The maritimes and NS in particular were looking really good to settlers at first. Heck the town shelburne 10 min away was biggest town in the new world in the late 1700s. The population was around 15000 in 1790. It's now 1500. Basically they realized this land is rocky as heck and not good to farm, so they packed up and went west for greener pastures in the 1800s.
Vancouver and Victoria certainly fit the model. Both coasts of USA as well. It's simply unbelievable how easy it is to make 100k if you live near there. Soon my family will be the only one of about 7 that makes less than that. Only three of us have college degrees out about 14 or so. That's mostly in WA and one each in Cali and DC. It certainly doesn't take away how much money there is right now.
Its about impossible to make that kind of money in rural tennessee. Causes huge problems when droves of people with a money train move in.
Hawaii has always been a case of that. Islanders are quite poor financially and the onslaught of powerball winners never stops moving in. I could not afford to stay.
Quote from: HemlockKing on July 03, 2021, 06:25:08 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 03, 2021, 03:31:45 AM
I think some of them material handlers will wish they never bought material at those prices to begin with. Sometimes greed bites your ash tree. :D I think housing prices are about to collapse to along with $80,000 pickup trucks despite the talking heads that like to spew mis-information. There are not that many wealthy families. :D :D
Yup I agree, where's the money to come from? The maritimes is mostly poor, go outside Halifax or Moncton and it's just rural farm land and woods.
Don't forget about the "fish money" along the coast in southwest Nova Scotia there is way more millionaires than you would think. Just think about all those new lobster fishing boats at over $1 million each with long waiting list at the boat shops and $800,000 + for a lobster licence they have to be doing pretty good to pay those prices, then the buyers, fish plants..... some live in nice unassuming houses others have houses wide enough that they have 2 parallel hallways.
Quote from: Hilltop366 on July 03, 2021, 09:11:08 PM
Quote from: HemlockKing on July 03, 2021, 06:25:08 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 03, 2021, 03:31:45 AM
I think some of them material handlers will wish they never bought material at those prices to begin with. Sometimes greed bites your ash tree. :D I think housing prices are about to collapse to along with $80,000 pickup trucks despite the talking heads that like to spew mis-information. There are not that many wealthy families. :D :D
Yup I agree, where’s the money to come from? The maritimes is mostly poor, go outside Halifax or Moncton and it’s just rural farm land and woods.
Don't forget about the "fish money" along the coast in southwest Nova Scotia there is way more millionaires than you would think. Just think about all those new lobster fishing boats at over $1 million each with long waiting list at the boat shops and $800,000 + for a lobster licence they have to be doing pretty good to pay those prices, then the buyers, fish plants..... some live in nice unassuming houses others have houses wide enough that they have 2 parallel hallways.
Bank owned on a lot. The Chinese do pay good though and that’s why they’re trying to push this indigenous livelihood fisheries aka lets exploit the waters in the summer months when lobsters are most active and sell to China to bank out. Most of the people(crew)who run these boats are in fact poor. They have enough money for a big chev or dodge and some big tires/lift and that’s about it.
Fishermen are like farmers as far as money. The government buys the land and finances the equipment with loan guarantees. There are fellas here all over we call over night millionaires. If you're immigrant or out of province citizen the more money ya get. First chunk of that new money is spent on a brand new house they couldn't afford otherwise. :D That's not the same money as old money, old money was made when the worker was pretty much the slaves. My grandfather worked and was never paid money for years, just commissary pay, like those old WV coal miners. A rail road man always got paid money and every week. The depression never stopped the trains, stuff still needed to move. Well, mom's uncle died a millionaire off rail road pay.....and high interest rates before the new millennium. Also, averaged annual wages is meaningless, the median wage is the real wage. It's just a method of hiding disparity of the citizenry.
New Brunswick registers lowest households incomes in Canada: StatsCan | New Brunswick Health Council (https://nbhc.ca/health-in-the-news/new-brunswick-registers-lowest-households-incomes-canada-statscan)
Household income, not single wage income. So about $24,000 if you consider husband and wife are the earners. They find every angle to ignore single wage income. :D :D
I don't know what crew make but I do know a few captains that will get around $100,000 per year and the guy that owns the boats (lobster and ground fish boats) will net over $2 mill per year at about a 10% profit margin. Not a big margin but when you gross 21 to 22 million per year its still pretty good.
The bank owns some of boats but there are lots of guys that own their own boat and have had their own licence for years and paid anywhere from 6 to 100 thousand for them and are long since paid for or inherited or passed down to them. A lot of the licences have been in the same family for 3 or 4 generations.
What does this have to do with the price of lumber, I don't know. :D
I was more making the point many, especially those who are building the houses, can afford to pay a bit more for lumber. Hopefully it would eventually work it's way down to us on the logging end, even if it's only a trickle that's better than none.
Just read yesterday approximately 8.8% of Americans are now considered millionaires. Not sure how that's calculated but I can't imagine any way that that isn't lots of money, whether equity and hard assets or liquid assets it's still a bunch. Lumber should be high I would argue. In fact I'd say it's been artificially low for a while.
I think loggers will feel the dip more than they feel the peak.
Quote from: quilbilly on July 04, 2021, 11:41:30 AM
Just read yesterday approximately 8.8% of Americans are now considered millionaires. Not sure how that's calculated but I can't imagine any way that that isn't lots of money, whether equity and hard assets or liquid assets it's still a bunch. Lumber should be high I would argue. In fact I'd say it's been artificially low for a while.
Lots of people are technically millionaires and don't know it, if you sold everything you owned including land and equipment and then paid your debts if you'd have a million then your a millionaire, that would include lots of farmers that are struggling to pay bills.
So if worked for 20 years and got paid $50,000 a year, then technically I made a million dollars?! :D
Very few farmers would be millionaires once the debt is paid from farm proceeds. Many would have investments through insurance companies, such as annuities and other safe investments. And there was rarely a whole lot to put in to the pot when interest was high. They would have a few $100,000 yes, not a million or millions from the sale. I could see a few near the encroaching urban front yes, the land would be sky high. A lot of farm land is out in the middle of nowhere and some provinces or states are very rural with a small handful of cities. Some of them are not that large.
Bill Gates is a speculator, not a farmer.
Quote from: mike_belben on July 04, 2021, 03:45:23 PM
I think loggers will feel the dip more than they feel the peak.
Always. Our prices didn't go up even close to lumber prices, and I'm talking the ones from the mill to the store, where my brother works. Still I wonder what should be the proper lumber price. Anything under 500 for 2X is way too low and I think closer to 700/mbf would be better. With modern efficiency a sawmill could still buy logs at 600/MBF and have a %20 gross profit or so with overrun by the time it gets cut out. I would think that would be enough to make a decent net profit with the amount of put through and men they have working in a modern mill. This is for DF of course, SYP is just such a glut until more mills come online.
30% is normal for most business, BUT, "I" don't know much at ALL about lumber resale or anything that comes close to it.
Just sayin...
Quote from: Tacotodd on July 04, 2021, 11:43:44 PM
30% is normal for most business, BUT, "I" don't know much at ALL about lumber resale or anything that comes close to it.
Just sayin...
I'm not sure about the mill side but I can tell you straight from my bro who is a salesman for a small lumber yard that they're between %3-10 depending on product. He also says that's higher than most. The bigger yards run around a %3 profit margin.
I would assume dimensional mills would be near that. For example. A local mill can do 1 million feet per day. If they profit $.10 per foot that would 100k per day gross and about 25 days per month at a 6 day week. That's 2.5 million gross profit per month, 5 million on 20%, and 7.5 million on 30%. They have less than 200 workers, most in the 22$ range. If they average $25 per hour in a 40 hour week that's 4,000 per month. 200 guys means 800,000 let's throw in another 200k for insurance and L&I and that would leave you with 1.5 million for debt and company insurance. Maybe my numbers are a bit low but I'm pretty sure they still turn a profit at 10% gross and swim in cash at anything over that.
quilbilly, I was just basing #'s off of what I KNOW about, and it's not lumber, but auto parts. I even said that.
I am also not in the lumber business and my knowledge is machine shops, if an employee makes $22.00 an hour after you add workman's comp and any benefits like vacations, sick days, matching 401K, etc, the typical cost for that $22 employee is $40+.
For a quick comic interlude from the real world numbers posted above.
In the news today:
"There is no indication that the exorcism had anything to do with a recent drop in the price of lumber."
Police break up ?exorcism? in lumber aisle of U.S. Home Depot - National | Globalnews.ca (https://www.google.ca/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/7980189/exorcism-home-depot-lumber-wood/amp/)
OK, now it all makes sense to me! 😆
hippie idiots. its the executive board at lowes and HomeRepot that needs its demons removed. i cant believe there have been no attempts to investigate them for racketeering, collusion, price fixing et al.
all the truckers, brokers, big box forklift operators and receivers will all tell you the shortage is a hoax. they ran out of room to store lumber just before the price hikes. having hauled where i hauled and seen what i seen, no article by some work from home keyboard warrior in some high-rise city condo will ever convince me it was not coordinated. opportunistic, predatory pricing based on simple covid fears. even the receivers agreed. they looked at the sanitizer, toilet paper and home buying frenzy then said hmm... lets round up some stimulus checks. are the bigbox employees getting a pay raise? i have my doubts.
Outfits like the Irvings have depots of lumber sitting down state and have for years in anticipation of disasters to cash in. I've been told Irving has been shipping lumber out on their train from Chipman sawmill every day all through COVID. I can imagine from St Leonard mill as well. They had to shut down temporary at St Leonard for COVID, but that was brief. Lumber goes down through Maine on the Bangor-Aroostook line. And also from there Ashland, Maine mill I assume, same train runs by the mill.
Quote from: gspren on July 05, 2021, 08:49:23 AM
I am also not in the lumber business and my knowledge is machine shops, if an employee makes $22.00 an hour after you add workman's comp and any benefits like vacations, sick days, matching 401K, etc, the typical cost for that $22 employee is $40+.
Depends on your place of employment. Mostly what a lot of folks get is matching EI and CPP deductions, which is not anything near a jump as you suggest. Wouldn't even be $2 bucks an hour because there is a maximum cutoff per year. Larger corporations might offer some form of insurance, but we have medicare which is free anyway, so best you could get is dental and disability. And you gotta fight for the disability most of the time, so that is no easy street.
I read an article a while back in which a big money guy said that, and I am paraphrasing here, "The days of the small business making over 25% gross margins are long gone. Small business owners are going to have to settle for 7-10% gross margins." When those at the top control a vertically integrated supply chain, including the shipping firms, they can get away with the lower margin because their getting that 10% at every level.
Quote from: mike_belben on July 03, 2021, 03:26:27 PM
Its a trap. The PE ratio on wall street is stretched up like a rubber band. When it snaps back down and those work from home city folks who moved to a big country mortgage are suddenly laid off when the financial capital that kept them employed vaporizes...
And they're going to point the blame at everything and everyone except for those responsible.
Going off topic a lot (and I'm purposely not mentioning specific stocks and groups), I've been watching the so-called meme stock frenzy and some of the articles that have been written, as well as many of the comments from some high finance folks, appear to be laying the groundwork to place the blame for a big market crash on the retail stock investor. Personally, I don't see how 3-5 stocks can bring down the market unless the level of fraud is as high as some of the retail guys claim.
I fully expect to see a big market crash and I think it's going to start in the derivatives market again (same as 2008). I even saw what appears to be the loosening of mortgage rules in Canada (higher debt coverage ratios) and variable rate mortgages for under 1% (0.98%) with both of these striking me as setting up for predatory lending again.
From what I'm hearing, I believe the hardwood will stay up through the winter this year even if building lumber comes down.... I have no idea about the softwood though. really just a guess though... anyone have any thoughts?
I stopped at the local lumber yard to pay a bill for some roofing supplies I picked up, aweek ago, while visiting with one of my friends who works there, he mentioned that the big stores who had stockpiled lifts of flat goods started calling around to move them three weeks ago to smaller yards. At least our yard said "no thanks".....Apparently wholesale prices around here have dropped significantly in the last two weeks. I didn't get price quotes, but I trust the source. I hope it comes back to bite the greedy folks a little bit.
The wholesale softwood market has dropped about 40% from its high and continues to retreat. The OSB market is still holding its ground at the moment.
Wud
OSB is pretty constrained to a few mills no?
Mike you are right that the PE ratio, no matter how you look at it, is pretty steep. Seems the stock market is ready for a correction. The last time it was this high was the year .COM boom wore off say fall of 2000. It was pretty inflated. Just 18 months later you could buy Corning for two bucks a share or Apple for less than $0.50/share (today at 140). Keep cash handy, could be a lots of buying opportunities.
Hogdaddy, I am not sure re the hardwoods. Hope they stay up, really all up to international trade issues. Japan, Germany, China, Mexico and others are driving so much of the demand.
Its hard for markets to correct when the fed never stops QE and the trading algorithms never get nervous.
Quote from: mike_belben on July 05, 2021, 01:14:59 PM
hippie idiots. its the executive board at lowes and HomeRepot that needs its demons removed. i cant believe there have been no attempts to investigate them for racketeering, collusion, price fixing et al.
I read this yesterday and forgot to mention, can't we all remember the congress people and senators dumping stocks ahead of the public announcement of the Covid shut down??
That amounts to massive insider trading and has anyone on either side of the aisle been investigated. Kind of all in the same fashion....
Whats interesting to me is that in late september 2015 when russia was supporting syria's conflict, china jumped in to go against forces america supported. All the right ingredients were in place for a 3rd world war. The markets didnt even register a tick. Not a percent. If elon musk breaks wind the stock market moves but not for real events anymore.
I realized its not humans moving it anymore. The news still posts old pictures of traders on a floor that doesnt exist and explains movements based on human emotions, but i concluded from that event its all BS. Computer software is doing all the work. I cashed my 401k and started parking it in physical tangible assets, land, equipment, materials etc.
For quite a while i lamented the gains i did not register by exiting when i did and the surprise bubble that came thereafter. However everything i bought has doubled in price due to money printing so no one else really gained any extra either, and are taxed on the larger sum when they cash out someday, if it doesnt crash out first.
I will keep my one in the hand instead of the bush.
Both Republican Senators from Georgia were accused of insider trading due to pre-Covid briefings, and both of them lost the Election to Democrats. This led to a change in power in the Senate from a Republican majority to a 50:50 tie with the VP Harris, who presides and is the tie breaking vote, shifting the power to the Democrats.
I am sure that the charges of insider trading had a bearing on the outcome of the election. It certainly did not help.
Quote from: Nebraska on July 07, 2021, 10:37:22 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on July 05, 2021, 01:14:59 PM
hippie idiots. its the executive board at lowes and HomeRepot that needs its demons removed. i cant believe there have been no attempts to investigate them for racketeering, collusion, price fixing et al.
I read this yesterday and forgot to mention, can't we all remember the congress people and senators dumping stocks ahead of the public announcement of the Covid shut down??
That amounts to massive insider trading and has anyone on either side of the aisle been investigated. Kind of all in the same fashion....
Just goes to show you, smart people rarely run for congress. The joke turned out to be on them as the stock market had a great year. It also shows that everyone in govt had been briefed on how bad Covid was going to be while many tried to talk down the ramifications and impacts, hypocrites.
That stock market thing people panic too much over rumors .If you follow it long term even considering the ups and down it will yield about 10-11 percent over long term .I know mine has done well and I'm far from a financial genus .
I've got one rental that will soon be for sale .I'm too old and grumpy to deal with that any more .That little in town house has yielded around 8.5 percent return in the clear for over 20 plus years .If it doesn't sell I'll rerent it and after I'm pushing up flowers my kids will inherit it and pay no capitol gains .If I live another 15 years before expenses that will be another $108,000 .So if you look at it long term it's a return of triple the value of an original house valued at 40 grand .There is no way to lose on this deal .
So what I'm saying is look at things long term not what you can do in 6 months .---as for lumber prices ,they will come down sooner or later .
Softwood lumber dropped another US $200 this week. Panels are very slowly edging downward from their peek in May.
Seems to be the new normal is booms that last just long enough to induce waves of investment, trying to catch a tide thats headed out to sea.
Right about the time all these new mill owners take delivery i expect the frenzy to be over.
I think there may be a lot of hobby saws up for sale in a year or two, we'll see. Hope not though, good hobby and better than sitting watching TV.
Prices by me just tanked-- 2x4x8 was at like 8.50+ now it's finally come down to $6.23 this week ($7 without that famous 11% rebate :D) I hope by this winter it'll hit $5
Home Depot still lists 2 x 6 x 16 as $34, treated is $37 :D
2 x 6 x 12 Cedar decking is $43 That's one huge profit because I never seen clear logs go for more than $320/th in the best of times. White cedar is way undervalued on the producer's end. Sometimes you have to handle a lot of crap to fish out the good stuff. I wouldn't sell prime cedar logs for less than $800/th and tell them not to waste my time.
Yeh The rise in prices have been a blessing to me. Wanted to build a new modest home, the prices peak crazy, well I own over 100 acre of woodlot that’s just sittin there??? Well 1 year later I’m 50 acres into it. Lots of saw logs in here. The price could go to crazy lows and I’m still set on milling my own lumber now, even if I don’t sell lumber, the mill will pay for itself via the stuff I need to build here, the junk is being sold as firewood which I have probably over 100 cords in rounds I still have to split. The rise in prices have been a blessing in disguise for me, totally changed my life actually because I’m trying to make a living off my
Land now.
Im glad its benefitted a few little guys and not just big box execs and shareholders.
Quote from: mike_belben on July 12, 2021, 07:59:27 AM
Im glad its benefitted a few little guys and not just big box execs and shareholders.
I’m probably the happiest I’ve been in my life. I wish I had made the transition to a “woodsman” long ago. Beats coughing up metal dust and inhaling weld smoke inside a dark cold shop lol
I know not one, but two different old men with filthy little rented machine shops who thought me moving to southern appalachia was the worst idea ever and spared no opinions about it. Crab in a box sort of mentality. What i paid renting my 2k sf shop woulda bought my homestead twice. their cumulative rents probably close to a dozen times. Neither has an exit strategy but to simply die standing at a machine and both have poor to terrible relationships with wives and kids. Mostly miserable and alone at the shop.
The one prone to staying at the shop 6.5 days a week, from about 8am to 11pm and going home coal black head to toe- honest to god- finally blurted out quite angrily that i was gonna be a poor dirt farmer and how could i do that to my family. Like i was a selfish evil person for wanting out of his dream life. I did not think at that time that i was gonna go so broke like he predicted. Hed track me down to reiterate it every time i saw him.
A few years of struggle and poverty later i had to go back and tell him he was right. That i did become a poor dirt farmer. But that it saved my marriage and family and was the best life we'd ever had. Better than i thought it would be.
Another old shop renting machinist from poland helped me immensely by loaning a forklift for days while i loaded out and refusing to take any money for it (i refilled the propane of coarse) told me all along, get the hell out of here mikey. Dont be like him.
Quote from: HemlockKing on July 12, 2021, 08:19:56 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on July 12, 2021, 07:59:27 AM
Im glad its benefitted a few little guys and not just big box execs and shareholders.
I'm probably the happiest I've been in my life. I wish I had made the transition to a "woodsman" long ago. Beats coughing up metal dust and inhaling weld smoke inside a dark cold shop lol
Absolutely , I did auto body work for 30 + years before I went sawmill full time. Cleanest work I have ever done and not on concrete.
Quote from: mike_belben on July 12, 2021, 08:46:19 AM
I know not one, but two different old men with filthy little rented machine shops who thought me moving to southern appalachia was the worst idea ever and spared no opinions about it. Crab in a box sort of mentality. What i paid renting my 2k sf shop woulda bought my homestead twice. their cumulative rents probably close to a dozen times. Neither has an exit strategy but to simply die standing at a machine and both have poor to terrible relationships with wives and kids. Mostly miserable and alone at the shop.
The one prone to staying at the shop 6.5 days a week, from about 8am to 11pm and going home coal black head to toe- honest to god- finally blurted out quite angrily that i was gonna be a poor dirt farmer and how could i do that to my family. Like i was a selfish evil person for wanting out of his dream life. I did not think at that time that i was gonna go so broke like he predicted. Hed track me down to reiterate it every time i saw him.
A few years of struggle and poverty later i had to go back and tell him he was right. That i did become a poor dirt farmer. But that it saved my marriage and family and was the best life we'd ever had. Better than i thought it would be.
Another old shop renting machinist from poland helped me immensely by loaning a forklift for days while i loaded out and refusing to take any money for it (i refilled the propane of coarse) told me all along, get the hell out of here mikey. Dont be like him.
The first paragraph was my experience exactly in shops, same characters, everything. I did have fun at times though, there are strong personality types in those settings which makes for some humorous days. Especially Friday afternoons lol
Quote from: mike_belben on July 12, 2021, 08:46:19 AMHed track me down to reiterate it every time i saw him.
Sounds like someone trying to justify their poor decision - trying to make themselves feel better about it.
Some people seem to like being miserable and are willing to drag others down with them.
Quote from: Hilltop366 on July 12, 2021, 11:41:20 AM
Some people seem to like being miserable and are willing to drag others down with them.
All stems from their own shortcomings.
Im not trying to cut them down.. I learned from all of them and miss BSing now and then. The point was my complete life change showed me theres more to life than work and money like they made it out to be. They just didnt know any better, having never done it.
I made $32/hr up there and was poorer than i realized. Just a cog in a wheel that never stopped spinning.
Nobody will stop and enjoy life for you.
Amen!
Back to lumber. 2x4x8 green DF, advertised at $7.50 this past weekend at the generally cheaper local supplier, not Lowes or HD. And it's local wood, milled in town, minimal transportation costs. Ouch.
Why do we as part of the lumber production chain want low prices for lumber? I can see an easy way high prices might benefit me as a logger but no way low prices do
You know the big box stores do not have a face to put on the stealing. I on the other hand have my face to the town I'm in.
I get $4.50 for 2x4x8. If I run the price up to the big box stores and when the price drops I will look like a thief like them because of the price run-up.
Then come down with the $$$. Looking stupid.
I make a good living without stealing.
I get storying of mills with PILES of lumber ready to go.
But the wood sets there in their yard.
I like to live to get into heaven, not the wallet. ;)
smiley_thumbsup
Book says a camel passes through the eye of a needle easier than a rich man gets to the kingdom.
Quote from: quilbilly on July 13, 2021, 07:23:31 PM
Why do we as part of the lumber production chain want low prices for lumber? I can see an easy way high prices might benefit me as a logger but no way low prices do
I'm with you. Logs often sell for less than they did 30 years ago and then there actually has been inflation. This year hardwood prices moved some species out of the red and you can make a $. Now, I wish the softwood bubble had meant more to landowners and loggers instead of just Weyerhauser and the like.
Correct NW. not exactly sure how scripture comes into this mike. As someone who often says how little some get paid higher retail prices would actually give loggers some leverage with mills. Prices didn't go up as much here for logs percentage wise as they did for lumber but they did go up. If prices for lumber go down there will be a correlation for logs. I can easily face people in my town for higher lumber prices. I don't see the issue.
I don't begrudge the big guys for making some coin this last go around. What happens when SPF drops to $275 on the market for four months? Do log prices crater? Logging is a commodity business, by definition it's basically break even.
Anyone remember what happened in 2008? I watched a whole lot of mega sawmills and papermills go under. These were operations that had been in business for a century or more, in some cases owned hundreds of thousands of acres of land, owned hydro dams, etc. and they could not survive the downturn.
The bigger you are, the harder you fall, so you better be able to find a way to overcome obstacles.
It's really the same thing as the shale market, hang on by a thread most of the time, score big 15% of the time, and hope you play the cards right for the next round.
Quote from: quilbilly on July 13, 2021, 09:21:34 PM
not exactly sure how scripture comes into this mike.
Scripture has to do with everything if thats what you base your life on. I was commending peter drouin on refusing to let maximum profits become the driving purpose of his life. Just an atta boy.
FWIW when those mills died off in '08 my business that relied on them got crushed, and the 25 families that relied on me lost their income, so yea - I didn't raise my prices into the stupidphere, but I don't begrudge them at all.
Quote from: Southside on July 13, 2021, 09:25:54 PMThe bigger you are, the harder you fall, so you better be able to find a way to overcome obstacles
Part of the problem is many businesses are under capitalised. You can have $100 mil of assets, but if you owe the bank $99 mil, you don't have much leeway.
A lot of operations get shut down, not because they are technically running at a loss, just they aren't generating enough profit to service the debt. Your big mill might be making a $5 mil annual operating profit, but if you are paying the bank $10 mil in interest, you can't keep that up for very long.
If you (or your shareholders) OWN the assets, then they would still returning a profit. Just less in the poor years.
Quote from: Peter Drouin on July 13, 2021, 09:00:53 PMI like to live to get into heaven, not the wallet.
Beautifully said!
Quote from: mike_belben on July 13, 2021, 10:23:52 PM
Quote from: quilbilly on July 13, 2021, 09:21:34 PM
not exactly sure how scripture comes into this mike.
Scripture has to do with everything if thats what you base your life on. I was commending peter drouin on refusing to let maximum profits become the driving purpose of his life. Just an atta boy.
If the core of scripture was followed(scripture, not man's interp) in this we wouldn't be in the mess we are. Anyway, in danger of thread derail.
This is how lumbers pricing was explained by a fairly large mill owner.random lengths the publication. They call all the mills what are you selling for or buying for. This gets a average. The spruce mills tend to follow this more so than pine mills. At the high point one sp mill for top grade was getting $2000 that was for a short time last week it was $700 at $500 they are still making money
Quote from: mike_belben on July 13, 2021, 10:23:52 PM
Quote from: quilbilly on July 13, 2021, 09:21:34 PM
not exactly sure how scripture comes into this mike.
Scripture has to do with everything if thats what you base your life on. I was commending peter drouin on refusing to let maximum profits become the driving purpose of his life. Just an atta boy.
Aha, I thought you were making a comment about something else and couldn't make the connection.
Np bud, I understand.
Price dropped another US$100/th this week and panels prices are starting the steep decline this week.
Framing lumber is coming down at the box stores. 2x4x8 is down to $6.23 for SPF, $4.47 for treated. 7/16" OSB is down to $49.75. Not much drop on the OSB yet but it is coming down.
I am not big enough to do traffic, that is sell for all you can get and cross the street the next time you see that customer and besides I was not raised that way. What I always wanted and it took forever to get was repeat customers. I just did 150 2x4x8 only because it was a regular I could not say no to. Charged him $4.oo ea. That's a buck more than I used to get if I did them at all. Other than cedar and locust I don't saw small logs so in softwood my target is 1x12 and some 1x10. Stack them right, try to wait a year and sell a nice flat circle sawn board now for $1.25. Works for me and when framing drops dead I won't have any anyhow. The older I get the more I specialize . That's the only way if you are small i have learned.
th
Quote from: moodnacreek on July 14, 2021, 09:33:22 PMnice flat circle sawn board now for $1.25
that's for one board? or board ft? how long of a board? it seems awfully low to me
a bdft. For softwood lumber. I am guessing quite a bit more for 8/4 red oak.
Large sawn spruce say, 2 x 10 or 2 x 12 ,have always been premium price. Anyone building stairs will find out, and also find that not everyone stocks them here on the east coast. And I can bet you'll end up with some pith instead of just jacket wood. The small guy can saw you a better grade piece of wood without that pith. ;) Log home builders have paid $250 for a spruce log, but pretty much a veneer log. A commercial saw mill won't pay that for a spruce log. A spruce veneer mill will probably match that.
It's just history repeating itself like it always does .Following a down turn in the economy companies go out of business .Then coming out of such an event there will be shortages which give rise to price increases .Add to that curtailed home construction plus natural disasters like California on fire and the southern and eastern coast lines being blown away from storms and this is the results .
Then it's been a popular thing in the last few decades for people to get involved with things like IT etc. and now there is a shortage of trade persons .The infrastructure has been falling apart for decades and now needs fixed before it gets much worse . It all adds up .Eventually somebody has to pay the piper if they want to dance to the music .
well said Al
People don't really think about things with a global economy in mind .Usually just what locally affects them .Take for example getting a big powered barge stuck sideways in the Suez canal .It stopped world trade .Every thing ground to a stop .Just like a monkey wrench in the gears .
Because of methods of doing business following a Japanese style such as "just in time " inventory and "single source" suppliers and one little hiccup can be stop the whole works .
Like it or not a majority of world trade, which is what is, everybody is dependent on everybody else .That grounded large boat stuck in the canal stopped the production of automobiles because of the electronics it carried or stopped other shipments from arriving in a timely manner to the end user .
Then the whole thing is just supply and demand from the price of lumber extended to automobiles or in fact chainsaws which some are crying the blues over .
A 6 day halt of goods in and out of the mediterranean doesnt cause a 6 month shortage of every product in the world. Just like one refinery going offline in a storm for 2 days doesnt radically alter the global supply and demand dynamics of fuel for the planet. Prior to global connectivity and 24hr news bombardment most of the world wouldnt ever know of these events.
Global connectivity causes a hyper awareness that allows price setters to set prices higher every time an event occurs that could be believed to cause shortage. Nothing generates knee jerk, impulsive sales like the knowlege of a future price hike so the social buzz gets whipped up to manipulate prices at every opportunity.
I do agree with the jist of what your saying AL and have absolutely lived the results of bean counters forcing in japanese production models to a manufacturing plant. There are many true and genuine cluster-dangs going on, but there are many profitable false ones too. Lying for a buck is as old as time. Its not a 'conspiracy theory' that the entire world conspires to make a profit any way they can and our nation is dotted with minimum security prisons to punish the legions of slicksters who get caught.
No matter what manufacturing business i am in today, i can have the material parked out back, the same workers at their stations making the same money but upfront at the counter i can have salesman with a sob story about labor up, material up, retail price had to go up. The customer will believe it. If my salesmans taps his crystal ball and says oh price hike coming in 2 weeks, poof, the order gets placed. Nobody investigating gougers and no one is scared of divine punishment anymore so what disincentive is there? None. Little white lies are helping pay for a lot of $90k pickups and half million plus houses.
Youtube will reveal penty of videos of big box lumber piled outback during the great lumber shortage hoax of 2020. Why would other industries not jump on board? Because theyre too honest? Im not saying backorders are fake. I believe much of that is real because ifnyou had it right now youd surely sell it.. Im saying completely normal stuff on the shelf for 2 or 3x the normal cost because shortage.
Theyre selling at higher rates because the demand curve is up thus the price can rise. But its not popular to tell the world 'we raised the price above your means because there are other people with more money than you.' Thats snooty and will be punished. Home depot isnt supposed to have a maserati attitude but its happy to price for maserati customers right now until those run out. Then it can step down to service chevy and toyota owners again. But not if it tells the truth and offends them all over to lowes.
The mennonites are the only retailers that didnt gouge their sticker price around me and i was told nothing was unavailable. So why the mismatch?
As soon as shoppers stop coming through the door, the OVERSTOCK sales will begin, nationwide. It used to be folks could distinguish between needs and wants, waiting for the price to drop on wants. But bucketlust, yolo culture and cheap credit have killed off self control and common sense.
Saw a "flash sale" Craigslist add yesterday on lifts of 2x6x8, 8.00$
a piece for 120 in the lift. Guess the 2x6 price will be much lower soon. This wasn't a box store but a more local sized place must be trying to dump inventory or someone had a deal....
Mike, the Mennonite hardware store here, 5 miles away isn't selling lumber any cheaper. They will get all they can get like anyone else. A can of Rustoleum paint was over $60 this spring, the brush $30 at their store. They run a chain store, and pricing is determined up in Ontario, just like it is for Walmart Canada.
Maybe canadian mennonites arent the same as tennessean ones. I dont know what to tell you. Its obvious you dont like them and (edit: i wouldnt either if thats what theyre really about.) im having a hard time believing you about a $60 can. Did you mean to type case? Whats a can cost at the big box?
$2 bucks cheaper at homedepot.ca , gallon cans. Tremclad is the same as Rustoleum. I've always bought Tremclad, but got Rustoleum. Some of Rustoleum's products are $100 a can, depends on what your getting.
You can always find good and bad in any bunch, that is why when I get fed the goody goody stories I'm the man to give the other ones to. :D When I hear "awfully hard workers", I pipe up with 'compared to who'? Come work with a brush saw 40 hours a week, that'll give me a comparison. :D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 17, 2021, 04:28:19 PM
$2 bucks cheaper at homedepot.ca , gallon cans. Tremclad is the same as Rustoleum. I've always bought Tremclad, but got Rustoleum. Some of Rustoleum's products are $100 a can, depends on what your getting.
Rust oleum is the cheap stuff too. I use por 15 like 40$ a litre iirc
I smile and bite my tongue when someone smugly says "Amish built", as in yup, that explains it.
Amish here do impeccable work at affordable prices. I had an Amish partner in my first sawmill venture. If there exists a finer example of what a man should strive to be; I have yet to meet him.
I work closely with the menonite community here and all i will say is other than horses and black clothing they aren't any different on a whole than the general population some are worthy examples of hard working men ,some are better business heads than others some in my area have raised their prices just because they can, others are charging the same as before the pandemic. I guess what im trying to say is get to know a man before you decide whether you like them or not,would you want people to judge your whole community based solely on your disposition ????
Okay $60/gal. Here im thinking rattle can. Those are about $5 usd or so.
Phew.
Those spray cans are $10 here, sold by weight, not volume. Any way to skin a cat. :D There's no litre in it, even the 'litre' can is not a full litre and over $20 bucks. And the last couple of years, maybe as much as 5, the gallons are short gallons, not 4 litres and not a full 4.54 litre gallon on the Queens scale. Drop volume, raise prices, that is always the game. :D Around here if you buy them little 1 litre cans, your going to have $90 a gallon tied up in the deal. I always get as large a container as I can get, because I can use it all on something. I've bought interior paint by the 5 gallon bucket, the primer. And that is Benj. Moore, so your already into pricey stuff to begin with. :D :D
The downward spiral continued this week, down to US$400 and OSB down to $43, a $10 drop this week. Nobody building around here, just a lot of old relics being sold. One of those in town looks like the walls are about to explode outward. A real prize winner. I saw what I took to be new owners looking things over the other day. I don't think they knew what they bought. ;D
Quote from: mike_belben on July 17, 2021, 10:27:51 AM
A 6 day halt of goods in and out of the mediterranean doesnt cause a 6 month shortage of every product in the world. Just like one refinery going offline in a storm for 2 days doesnt radically alter the global supply and demand dynamics of fuel for the planet. Prior to global connectivity and 24hr news bombardment most of the world wouldnt ever know of these events.
Global connectivity causes a hyper awareness that allows price setters to set prices higher every time an event occurs that could be believed to cause shortage. Nothing generates knee jerk, impulsive sales like the knowlege of a future price hike so the social buzz gets whipped up to manipulate prices at every opportunity.
I do agree with the jist of what your saying AL and have absolutely lived the results of bean counters forcing in japanese production models to a manufacturing plant. There are many true and genuine cluster-dangs going on, but there are many profitable false ones too. Lying for a buck is as old as time. Its not a 'conspiracy theory' that the entire world conspires to make a profit any way they can and our nation is dotted with minimum security prisons to punish the legions of slicksters who get caught.
No matter what manufacturing business i am in today, i can have the material parked out back, the same workers at their stations making the same money but upfront at the counter i can have salesman with a sob story about labor up, material up, retail price had to go up. The customer will believe it. If my salesmans taps his crystal ball and says oh price hike coming in 2 weeks, poof, the order gets placed. Nobody investigating gougers and no one is scared of divine punishment anymore so what disincentive is there? None. Little white lies are helping pay for a lot of $90k pickups and half million plus houses.
Youtube will reveal penty of videos of big box lumber piled outback during the great lumber shortage hoax of 2020. Why would other industries not jump on board? Because theyre too honest? Im not saying backorders are fake. I believe much of that is real because ifnyou had it right now youd surely sell it.. Im saying completely normal stuff on the shelf for 2 or 3x the normal cost because shortage.
Theyre selling at higher rates because the demand curve is up thus the price can rise. But its not popular to tell the world 'we raised the price above your means because there are other people with more money than you.' Thats snooty and will be punished. Home depot isnt supposed to have a maserati attitude but its happy to price for maserati customers right now until those run out. Then it can step down to service chevy and toyota owners again. But not if it tells the truth and offends them all over to lowes.
The mennonites are the only retailers that didnt gouge their sticker price around me and i was told nothing was unavailable. So why the mismatch?
As soon as shoppers stop coming through the door, the OVERSTOCK sales will begin, nationwide. It used to be folks could distinguish between needs and wants, waiting for the price to drop on wants. But bucketlust, yolo culture and cheap credit have killed off self control and common sense.
For the products on that ship it was months and months of wait as Egypt wouldn't let the ship go without paying a honking huge fine. Sort of funny edge case and yes, it alone didn't slow world trade. But it is amazing how much stuff gets shoved onto 1 supermax sized ship.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 23, 2021, 05:17:56 AM
The downward spiral continued this week, down to US$400 and OSB down to $43, a $10 drop this week. Nobody building around here, just a lot of old relics being sold. One of those in town looks like the walls are about to explode outward. A real prize winner. I saw what I took to be new owners looking things over the other day. I don't think they knew what they bought. ;D
will stimulate the local economy hopefully, lots of rehab.
Our box store had 2x4 studs $5.12, sheet goods, 1/2 cdx 43.00$.
Oh yeah -11%
Well, i sympathize with the build high, foreclose low crowds to come.
Headline up here claims that lumber prices have spiked due to the massive fires in NW USA and Canada.
'Market Volitility' in action?
Only by $60 in reports I see. It was down $100 for the week, thus -$40 net loss. ;)
Anything for headline to sell news. :D
The vast area of Ontario spruce-fir is majority pulpwood material since no one waits 80-100 years anymore for a spruce log. When we cut the town lot here in New Brunswick, the saw mills couldn't even handle the but logs of the red spruce, until 8 feet up. The mill had to haul them to Maine to their veneer mill, they would not buy them as veneer from here. That lot had never been clearcut, was a town watershed. All the towns now have wells and storage towers.
It has been strange. Even with the price of lumber the local building supply has been going steady along with the ready mix plant, construction and renovation has only slowed recently because of the extreme heat. Logging is shut down for the time being but mill yards are full. The biggest problem is finding qualified and motivated tradesmen.
It's the same economic / business scenario in NW Ontario.
However, today we got a stop work order from MNRF Operations that, because of the extreme fire hazard, all road work, brush clearing, any industrial projects were told to stand down.
In 50 years of playing in this neck of the woods, thats a first to my knowledge.
.
In the meantime, a stud mill in Kenora remains shutdown for the last two or three years.
Strange times for sure!
I suspect the times are destined to get stranger.
X2
The cards are being shown as we speak. One should look back two years and realize that it is getting stranger each and every day, we are getting accustomed to far too many things and humans become comfortable with that which is familiar, no matter how miserable it is. Always look behind you to see how far you have traveled, in this case it's not been a good journey.
Construction here has been an Amsterdam Hotel by a billionaire food processor and hardware stores. One small house that followed a farm and house sale this spring. They got $300,000 out of a $189,000 house, about 4 years old. You can't get that kind of return from the bank storing your money. The buyer of that house and farm is going to sell the house once the previous owner has the house up. I see a problem with their driveway in the woods to the new house, no place for snow. :D
Good sized snow blower takes care of that.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 24, 2021, 06:32:57 AM
Construction here has been an Amsterdam Hotel by a billionaire food processor and hardware stores. One small house that followed a farm and house sale this spring. They got $300,000 out of a $189,000 house, about 4 years old. You can't get that kind of return from the bank storing your money. The buyer of that house and farm is going to sell the house once the previous owner has the house up. I see a problem with their driveway in the woods to the new house, no place for snow. :D
Storing your money in a bank is a massive scam. Let them hold onto your hard earned $$, make money with it while inflation eats up its worth anyway. Assets assets assets
It wouldnt be if the fed wasnt holding interest rates at nothing and targeting for 2% intentional inflation. This has more or less put an end to what we remember of passbook and CD savings. The lack of a secure liquid parking spot for your wealth is forcing everyone to seek alternatives.
Quote from: gspren on July 24, 2021, 08:50:47 AM
Good sized snow blower takes care of that.
It will be an issue, trust me, it's a wall of thick trees 50 feet tall and skinny and evergreen. Not talking oak trees that are spaced 15 feet.
I just spent 16 bucks on a 16 foot 2x4 for a screed board.
Ok now, that's dropped the price a bit.
$1.50 bf. USD
$2.25 bf CAD
Prices on lumber continue to fall but slowing down this past week. US$400 for 2" x 4", around CDN $680 for same. That does not translate from currency exchange. Only in Canada is milled lumber next door higher than same pile shipped 1000 miles south. :D
Panel prices still in steep decline. OSB CDN $40 a sheet.
I heard a story about a little hardware store that use to sell lumber in NS that is 15 miles from a mill (100 million BF per year) and could get 2x4s from BC for less.
Seems a bit crazy.
OSB down to CDN $28/sheet this week. 2 x 4" Lumber is unchanged.
I just got a wholesale price for FAS white oak, 4/4, kind dried from a big outfit in Tennessee. $6.45 per bdft. I about had a heart attack.
$48.62 for a 6x6x12 PT.
Just payed 29.30$ for a 2x6x10’ spruce lol. The only piece I have bought during this big scam. I needed it for a guide to mill lumber myself
Edit: that was 10 ft I have no clue where I came up with 20 lol
I needed some 2x12x8 pressure treated for some stair stringers at my cabin.
$39
That is almost 3.5x of what I paid a few years ago.
Insane.
I just know that for log pricing we just got our best price ever for low grade DF sawlogs and stud wood so I really don't care if lumber is high cause it's finally coming back to me. 775 for 7"+ and $80/ton for 5-7.
Wow, sounds like lumber will stay up.
Quote from: moodnacreek on August 06, 2021, 07:20:45 AM
Wow, sounds like lumber will stay up.
Everything will stay up.
America has been exporting the USD to all nations since 1946 when it became world reserve currency. They world has been hoarding our cash and trading elsewhere with it for 80 years. And nownwe have printed it into garbage so the world is starting to de-dollar. Which means a flood of those dollars will be coming back here looking to buy items of value priced in dollars so as not to pay steep exchange rates as it goes out of favor.
Naturally russia and china were the first to dump our money hard in the midst of crisis season last year. Uproar in the east strike in the west. Japan just made a major cut in their T bill holdings and others will soon follow suit, especially with whatever theyre gonna do about the debt ceiling reinstatement going on as we speak.
So for the rest of our lives, even if the american economy tanks, prices will be high because the buyers will be coming here from the entire planet to unload their declining dollar that no one else will want to be holding unless its with an exchange rate heavy in their favor. The best thing you can do with a declining currency is to have spent it long ago acquiring other real things that appreciate or retain value for future trade.
55 chevys and such.
Quote from: Raider Bill on August 05, 2021, 02:21:45 PM
$48.62 for a 6x6x12 PT.
$89.90 for 6x6x16 PT in my local Lowe's yesterday. I want to build a shed, but I wouldn't buy the posts at $60.00. I have some red cedar that is about to become posts. ;D
Wud
WUD - how many do you need? I can have them treated for $250/MBF
Quote from: mike_belben on August 06, 2021, 09:14:03 AM
Quote from: moodnacreek on August 06, 2021, 07:20:45 AM
Wow, sounds like lumber will stay up.
Everything will stay up.
America has been exporting the USD to all nations since 1946 when it became world reserve currency. They world has been hoarding our cash and trading elsewhere with it for 80 years. And nownwe have printed it into garbage so the world is starting to de-dollar. Which means a flood of those dollars will be coming back here looking to buy items of value priced in dollars so as not to pay steep exchange rates as it goes out of favor.
Naturally russia and china were the first to dump our money hard in the midst of crisis season last year. Uproar in the east strike in the west. Japan just made a major cut in their T bill holdings and others will soon follow suit, especially with whatever theyre gonna do about the debt ceiling reinstatement going on as we speak.
So for the rest of our lives, even if the american economy tanks, prices will be high because the buyers will be coming here from the entire planet to unload their declining dollar that no one else will want to be holding unless its with an exchange rate heavy in their favor. The best thing you can do with a declining currency is to have spent it long ago acquiring other real things that appreciate or retain value for future trade.
55 chevys and such.
Your something, Mike. Back in '77 I bought my place with a '55 Chevy convertible .
Southside, how long do you let your pine timbers air dry before treatment? I've been thinking of sawing a batch to have treated at a local plant, but if I have to dry them for a year...well, I usually don't think that far ahead 😁
Quilbilly that is awesome to hear! Here's hoping for many more best ever prices for you. If the stores can get so much then everyone in the chain should get a fair cut.
Related to the thread, in a book I am reading
QuoteInstead of helplessly wringing our hands and crying out about the high price of fuel and food, let us accept the present state of things and brace ourselves up helpfully and bravely to face the increased cost of the necessities of life. If fuel and food cost nearly twice as much at present as they did ten years ago, then surely it becomes our imperative duty to see how we can, each of us, according to our possibilities, make the material for warmth and cooking go twice as far as they have done hitherto.
Lady Barker, First Lessons in the Principles of Cooking, 1874
BB - here they want them 26% MC or lower, usually I can get 6x6's down to that in three months or so - if those months are May-August, and I put the pile in the middle of a 50 acre field so the air can get to them. I have not tried it any other time of the year.
Doug i bet the 55 has appreciated more than the 77!
:D ;D
Quote from: mike_belben on August 06, 2021, 06:16:24 PM
Doug i bet the 55 has appreciated more than the 77!
:D ;D
When I was in my late teens I had a tow truck and a 55 Chevy junk yard on the farm where we lived. 2 woman under one roof, no money so the toys had to go so we could get our own place. At some point all my toys where gone to do the right thing. When i got back on my feet I rewarded myself with a new hobby, a sawmill. The history of Doug, to be continued . So back to the subject; lumber and steel are high at the same time.
Quote from: mike_belben on August 06, 2021, 09:14:03 AM
Quote from: moodnacreek on August 06, 2021, 07:20:45 AM
Wow, sounds like lumber will stay up.
Everything will stay up.
America has been exporting the USD to all nations since 1946 when it became world reserve currency. They world has been hoarding our cash and trading elsewhere with it for 80 years. And nownwe have printed it into garbage so the world is starting to de-dollar. Which means a flood of those dollars will be coming back here looking to buy items of value priced in dollars so as not to pay steep exchange rates as it goes out of favor.
Naturally russia and china were the first to dump our money hard in the midst of crisis season last year. Uproar in the east strike in the west. Japan just made a major cut in their T bill holdings and others will soon follow suit, especially with whatever theyre gonna do about the debt ceiling reinstatement going on as we speak.
So for the rest of our lives, even if the american economy tanks, prices will be high because the buyers will be coming here from the entire planet to unload their declining dollar that no one else will want to be holding unless its with an exchange rate heavy in their favor. The best thing you can do with a declining currency is to have spent it long ago acquiring other real things that appreciate or retain value for future trade.
55 chevys and such.
Or you could note that the stock and real estate market has had more inflow than we've had outflow in bonds and voila...you find out where they put the bond money. Money has been pouring into the US. US Pension funds also cut T bill holdings over the last year and they cut faster than foreign govts.
I bet most people can't tell you who the 4th largest foreign holder is. 1 is Japan, 2 is china, 3 is UK, 4th is ? . I give you a hint, 5th is luxemborg- that's right a country of 680k people has 280 billion in US debt. The Japanese cuts led by the Japanese retirement fund which simply allocated money to other investments-including equity in the US among other things.
I wouldn't mind seeing China and Japan greatly reduce debt holdings. If they sell debt it is easier for the dollar to depreciate and makes Chinese and Japanese products more expensive on a relative basis, helping US manufacturers.
Alternatively - how much of that inflow has been from the Fed printing and handing it over to the banks? Reverse repo, Fed buying bonds, Fed buying stonk via BlackRock? Definitely buying real estate that way.
Quote from: Southside on August 06, 2021, 10:16:15 PM
Alternatively - how much of that inflow has been from the Fed printing and handing it over to the banks? Reverse repo, Fed buying bonds, Fed buying stonk via BlackRock? Definitely buying real estate that way.
40% of the US currency that exists has been printed just over the last 1.5 years. The printers are getting fried from being overused.
Quote from: HemlockKing on August 07, 2021, 05:46:51 AM
Quote from: Southside on August 06, 2021, 10:16:15 PM
Alternatively - how much of that inflow has been from the Fed printing and handing it over to the banks? Reverse repo, Fed buying bonds, Fed buying stonk via BlackRock? Definitely buying real estate that way.
40% of the US currency that exists has been printed just over the last 1.5 years. The printers are getting fried from being overused.
I think that's exactly the reason the dollar isn't worth much anymore, and it gets lower every day. that and the world record high debt (gov. debt) per capita the US has.
if the currency wouldn't be that big, it would have been long gone do to devaluation
All I know is, the next 20 or 30 years are gonna be wild, I’m buckling up.
Just checked 7/16 OSB at Lowes and HD, "down" to $26.35. How to get people to be happy with doubling your price? Just quadruple it first and then drop to "just double".
The fed is hooked on a cycle of selling debt in the form of Tbills and pumping injections into the stock market to keep it afloat by continued quantitative easing.
Look at the housing crash period, 2008 is when tarp and QE1 began. They intercepted the crash and legislated it back to a boom with debt financing. the genuine bull market of the once in history dotcom age lasted 9 years. This forced bull market has gone on 12 years.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1628336932693.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1628337040)
A full cycle of up and down is supposed to take 10 and weve got 12 years strickly up. Look at the megaphone pattern here. Draw a line across the bottoms of dot com crash and 08. The next crash is supposed to go that low. I wonder how the suicide graph will look when a 4000 point S&P goes to the 500s.
Well guess what the consequence of this Tbills for wall street bake sale is? We are running out of unborn people to tax, the T bill interest cannot be repaid unless its less than the rate of money printing and is repaid in devalued dollars.. Essentially unrepaid. That is a CRIME. Perverting the money so you can technically repay what you promised byt realistically short your debtors. It is also a sin.. The bible is absolutely full of warnings not to dilute your currency. (Proverbs 11:1, 20:10 and 20:23 for ex.)
But sin never bothers government. Claims of 2% inflation is a flat out lie.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1610542116264.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1610542265)
We removed the debt ceiling and printed 40% more money and climbing since covid. It has that much less buying power and everyone who doesnt have a nice place in line at the central bank knows it every week when they carry out a hundred dollar bill in a few walmart bags.
Closer details of the link between market price and fed intervention.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1628337639792.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1628337599)
Lock step. At the slightest decline in market price, the fed rushes in with firehose in hand, flooding it with the next generations promissary tax revenue to keep wall street from losing a percent. It cant stay at this level without the fed playing angel investor by selling bad debt to buy the worlds most overpriced stocks.
What they have built is a federal Ponzi scheme and the buyers of Tbills that repay less than they cost are running out.
All 3 Tbill yields have plunged below 1% return for the first time ever.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1628336750032.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1628337044)
So who is gonna buy an investment vehicle with a guaranteed loss when there is an option with a nearly guaranteed gain? The fed has simply become and insurer of stock price.
The market is delivering huge, essentially federally guaranteed returns while the fed is keeping interest so low that a local CD account cant match even the imaginary inflation rate. Add in that the IRS has invented a 401k retirement system that is very heavily invested in stocks while the bond market sucks. The world has parked their wealth in a ponzi disguised as a casino and the insurer is bankrupt! So the true guarantor has become the american worker and his 401K which purchases every week at any price. Sadly the worker cant sell postdated checks that he wont fully honor to buy his stocks, he and she actually had to clock in and earn it up front and buy with real dollars.
130% debt to GDP!
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/0001-4306719005_20210714_093203_0000.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1626282426)
Many fleed into kryptocurrency to escape fiat money because it cant be inflated like fiat money. What is congress putting onto the current infrastructure bill as we speak? A rider to regulate krypto. Its written to sound like its for safety but its just another corrall to prevent anyone from escaping the dollar crisis just before the stuff hits the fan.
When the US debt is down graded and the world starts to de-dollar in a frenzy, who will the fed sell Tbills to in order to keep the stocket market soaring?
Wyatt if your banker friends are telling you a further ruined dollar is some form of cure to americas problems, dont send them my way when they need mechanic help. I have no sympathy for anyone who thinks printing the few dollars i ever have into toilet paper is good for me. Anyone in favor of that process is my enemy.
Here we are always having to hear about the planet being unsustainable. It will be here thousands of years after civilization has forgotten who the americans were.
Our finances are the most unsustainable thing on the planet, and one that could actually be fixed.
Quote from: mike_belben on August 07, 2021, 09:56:32 AMWe are running out of unborn people to tax
The open southern border just called - said to "hold my beer"....
:D
Quote from: Southside on August 07, 2021, 11:28:43 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on August 07, 2021, 09:56:32 AMWe are running out of unborn people to tax
The open southern border just called - said to "hold my beer"....
And I cry in Canadian. 1M+ middle easterners and Chinese a year, all while our own can hardly afford housing or anything really. The vehicle is "diversity" And being "Canadian" but really it's the same here, just need more warm bodies to tax, spending away not even born yet children's futures lol . Everyone's (the partys)got a "solution" for the housing crisis But they won't touch stopping immigration with a 20 foot pool. So our native people already couldn't afford life, so instead of addressing that, they make life harder and worse for their own by keeping wages low and consumerism and housing up, more tax etc. Win win win win for corps and government, big lose for common person, brainwashed though, these people mindlessly revote these corpses in, well it's not like we had a chance anyway, it's all rigged against us.
I’m glad I can come to a place where there are like minded people that see things as they are, it seems most around me don’t know about this or even care really. Some just take the blue pill too, matrix(this movie was basically a documentary right???)
In 1513 Machiavelli said send a colony to conquer, not an army.
Those who dont know history are still doomed to repeat it right? Or is that cancelled too?
Quote from: HemlockKing on August 07, 2021, 11:45:21 AM
I'm glad I can come to a place where there are like minded people that see things as they are, it seems most around me don't know about this or even care really. Some just take the blue pill too, matrix(this movie was basically a documentary right???)
I just wish I could find a place where they talk about lumber and what it cost wherever they live. Had to call for price on 5/8" t&g spruce plywood , I was told the price had dropped, well it's only $75.99 a sheet now. OSB is apparently down as well only $64.99 so I decided on neither.???
If there were alternatives to the US currency than the US would have more issues but when Japan and the EU make the US look conservative than it gives the fed a bit of wiggle room. In reality there is no where to put the money sloshing around the world. Merril lynch and J.P. Morgan don't even want it.
But mike you are reading the rates on the tbill exactly backwards. The reason the interest in the treasury notes are so low is that so many people so want them. So many people want them they are willing to take no interest. That means huge demand. The price and yields are inverse. Huge demand means high prices and low interest. Worldwide the demand for US debt is unprecedented. Even when you see someone like Japan dumping some debt they turn around and give that cash to a wealth advisor in Luxembourg or London and they buy it right back.
Not disagreeing with your thesis that since 2008 the.stock market has gotten crazy expensive. However companies line apple and google are the new Exxon's and thankfully they are listed here on Wall Street.
Re immigration all I got to say is we all immigrated here or our ancestors did. Immigration has been the key driver of the American success story. Not sure about Canada. I know some Koreans that immigrated to Canada in 90s and worked tail off but ended up doing ok. Kids did very well.l, one is a doctor. Much like the Irish and German here in the USA, or the Indian or Hispanic. New immigrants add a lot to a country. The great great kids not so much usually or maybe better said less frequently
I dont have it backwards and know what yield is. Russia china and japan are reducing their dollar holdings by large amounts.
Lack of other currency options besides USD for international trade is what has kept the american house of cards together. It cant last forever.
Foreign people learn english in their countries because its a prerequisite for doing world trade anymore, whether they love or hate america. They have dollars because dollars are the world reserve currency (wrc) like it or not.
Saudis dont want pesos for their oil so yeah, peso denominated nations are demanding dollars to buy oil. They dont have a choice. Getting charged a big exchange and brokerage fee to turn a weak currency into a spendable one hurts, that makes a zero percent T bill look good.
When the USD stops being the wrc, that whole shebang will change. London was riding high until the sterling lost WRC status and changed the entire world order. There is lots of world demand to get off the dollar for international trade or else the IMF wouldnt have invented the SDR. Krypto throws a whole other element to the mix that i havent kept up with. When there is a good and readily available world currency option that isnt USD, probably soon amidst this mess, the dollar dynamic will change dramatically. If i understand it correctly the US vote at IMFis the only holdup left from them pumping out billions in SDR stimulus right now. Thats a dollar alternative brewing on the burner.
But we better get back to plywood prices. You know page 35. Im surprised its not gone to grits yet.
High lumber prices are just one symptom of a greater problem. Mike has touched on a big part of it with regards to the stock market but the problems are systemic and have effectively become an accepted evil. The media (both sides) has, for the most part, stopped reporting and now uses click bait titles and fear mongering opinion pieces because their only job is to sell papers or clicks or views. What's worse, is that if someone or some group disagrees with the so-called "popular opinion"(both sides do this) they get shouted down, belittled and cancelled.
There is a market crash coming and it's going to be a big one. I think this one is going to be directly tied to inflation and how we as a society (all western or first world countries) have allowed, if not encouraged, it to happen by pretending we can control it. We are told daily that 2-3% annual inflation is a good thing, but if a correction (deflation) is never allowed to happen than we get what we've got now. I have even read, from both bankers and hedge fund managers, that when the market crashes it will be due to unqualified retail investors disrupting the regular flow of business (do some research on Gamestop and AMC stock) rather than the systemic corruption within the system. Personally, I think that the reverse repos being done by the FED are more for a hedge (capital requirements changing on Oct 1, 2021 where large banks will need to have $1 trillion in high quality capital) against a coming crash than because they're broke.
A global pandemic comes through and shuts down the world's economies (at least that's what we've been told) yet we've seen massive price increases in everything from food to real estate. When economies are shut down, how is it that real estate prices can more than double without some sort of manipulation going on? Look at the specific statistics from March-May of 2020 and you will see that we were in an economic depression (massive job losses, massive losses in the stock market, large amounts of companies closing or about to close, many in society either becoming homeless or about to) even though the economy didn't meet the technical definition of one (Economic Depression (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp#:~:text=A%20depression%20is%20a%20severe,in%20a%20given%20year.)).
Lumber prices are coming down, but how many brokers/wholesalers are going to go broke because they had to fill the yard with overpriced, low quality, lumber?
That middle man with a hot potato is gonna get pinched. I cant remember who pointed out that once upon a time a futures trader was required to take delivery of his future contracts. Now you can be exploiting poplar and porkbellies from your manhattan highrise and really messing up the normal guy who deals in physical tangible stuff. I think its the chicago mercantile exchange we can thank for that.
This sort or morphing to the whims of outsiders looking for gain isnt new in history. Once upon a time the freemasons were literally stone workers. Then non masonry working members were admitted to lodges. Now you have grand lodges where not one is a stone worker! Well how many truckloads of porkbelly you think get delivered to manhattans financial district?
Hands off profiteers do cause considerable disruption in the tangible goods business cycle.
I've been hearing unsustainable, market crash for years now. Of course it will crash at some point, always does, but to say it must happen every seven or ten years bc that's what happened in the past is wrong. The past never actually repeats itself, certain patterns do but they're rarely exactly the same. We live and learn. Growth patterns get longer every time we do and we get better at dealing with crashes every time also.
My bro is a property investor, wife is a real estate agent. They have a client who says he will wait out the hot market. In the meantime if he'd bought a house two years ago he would've experienced roughly 20-25% growth. Even if the market crashes next year, and he takes a 30% haircut he'd be right back where he started at worst. If you aren't investing and gaining from the market right now in some way, you're not doing it right.
A rising tide lifts all boats. Crashes sift out the good swimmers.
Quote from: gspren on August 07, 2021, 09:51:38 AM
Just checked 7/16 OSB at Lowes and HD, "down" to $26.35. How to get people to be happy with doubling your price? Just quadruple it first and then drop to "just double".
This morning Lowes and HD got the 7/16 OSB for $21.35, another 5 buck drop. I need 24+ sheets so every 5 buck drop is significant to me. I'll probably wait another 2 weeks then just spend it.
A friend is hauling fir logs from the wet sort at Celista B.C. to the mill at Midway, a 200 mile trip each way! The finished product has to be priced pretty dear to justify the cost especially considering the price of fuel. His rates haven't increased in three years to keep up with inflation yet Canfor just reported a record quarter. I guess if the end user is willing to pay so be it but there is c;learly something wrong with this picture.
Im glad to hear news of some sort of moisture out there for you guys.
Quote from: gspren on August 11, 2021, 08:03:17 AM
Quote from: gspren on August 07, 2021, 09:51:38 AM
Just checked 7/16 OSB at Lowes and HD, "down" to $26.35. How to get people to be happy with doubling your price? Just quadruple it first and then drop to "just double".
This morning Lowes and HD got the 7/16 OSB for $21.35, another 5 buck drop. I need 24+ sheets so every 5 buck drop is significant to me. I'll probably wait another 2 weeks then just spend it.
I ordered 50 sheets on Monday for delivery tomorrow. Canceled them this morning.
good, make em sweat for gouging their own people.
Lumber Prices: The Bubble Is Over, but Don?t Expect Houses to Get Cheaper. | Barron's (https://www.barrons.com/articles/lumber-home-prices-51628714845)
Good article in Barrons this morning. Its a subscription service so you may or may not be able to open the link. Its a good article and thoughts are prices should remain in the 5-$600 per 1,000 board foot for the foreseeable future.
To be honest, I wouldn't mind the price coming down. My mill is supposed to be just hobby/supplemental income when I feel like it. Right now, every time I show my face in town it seems like I pick up another order😬😊
OSB down to CDN $25/sheet this week. No change in lumber much. 2 x 6" x 16' CDN $26 at Home Depot.ca That's still more than double from 3 years ago. If lumber is CDN $600/th right now that should be $9.60 a piece, of course retail has some mark up to that. But still should be around $12 bucks. ;)
By next spring prices should be a little more normal for the shop build. :)
I hope so because i am broke and cant make plywood. But i will spare everyone a long winded explanation and just say i dont think it will come down below double the old pricing ever again.
Quote from: mike_belben on August 13, 2021, 08:49:28 AMi dont think it will come down below double the old pricing ever again.
I have every bit of confidence that it will. Simply because the resource is very cheap and has never been raised in price here in the northeast. I'm thinning the stuff as fast as I can swing a clearing saw. ;D And my price per ha never budged. I've spaced 43 acres so far this year.
yeah but i dont live there, i mean here, naturally. ;D
Quote from: mike_belben on August 13, 2021, 09:33:27 AM
yeah but i dont live there, i mean here, naturally. ;D
It will be lower there, that's how it works. You can get my lumber cheaper than I can from the same mill. :D
Well weve outlined and datestamped our bets here. Time to wait and see together.
With high diesel again, record high flatbed freight rates, record high wage costs and a doubling of our currency the only way that canadian wood can be harvested in canada, processed at the mills, loaded onto railcars and trained what 1500 miles into another country to the rail depots in the southeast, unloaded by the forklift jockeys, reloaded on the trucks, hauled down the interstates, unloaded at the big box DCs, reloaded at the big box DCs, unloaded at the individual big box, processed by the receiver, and put on shelves by the stockers.... and every human in that chain getting paid off a $4 two by four...
Is if someone is subsidizing the whole process to put the southern mills out of business.
This is precisely what china has done to us very much on purpose and very much in accordance with the "new economic policy period of 1921-23." Only a huge, strictly managed economy staffed by quasi slave laborers and run by a central government with a fiat printing press currency can do this. It is why i cannot get a used chainsaw part from kentucky as cheaply as i can get a new one from china. It is done to prevent the guy in kentucky from making a sale.
Youre the one who knows the irvings. Are they at war with the south eastern mills to take over the territory?
Free silviculture and free spruce seedlings doesn't hurt them none. Plus all their own transport, rail, truck and boat. We don't get the trucking rates up here that they get in Alberta. Cost me more as a woodlot owner to truck wood, then the Irvings. They set their rates, I can't set my rate. :D If you told them the rates here, they would laugh. Same goes for welders. I bet welding is at least 1/3 the cost here.
Was at a box store last night looked at a lift of 5/8" plywood made in Brazil stamped on the side. 38.00$ a sheet.
Can't buy a USA or at least North American forest product. Way to go Maynerd...
Well thank god for free trade then so we can export our earnings outside our borders.
::)
This morning on Bloomberg price per thousand was down to $437. Hundred more an we're back to normal.
OSB CDN$18.75/sheet this week.
CDN $600/th for 2 x 4"
US $250/th 2 x 4" utility grade
ed was that futures or actual spf stud stock?
Looks like I am no longer the local wood hero. >:( >:(
youre still my hero doug. :-*
People;"Who is that masked man"
Me; "which one they are all wearing masks of some sort"???
Quote from: gspren on August 11, 2021, 08:03:17 AM
Quote from: gspren on August 07, 2021, 09:51:38 AM
Just checked 7/16 OSB at Lowes and HD, "down" to $26.35. How to get people to be happy with doubling your price? Just quadruple it first and then drop to "just double".
This morning Lowes and HD got the 7/16 OSB for $21.35, another 5 buck drop. I need 24+ sheets so every 5 buck drop is significant to me. I'll probably wait another 2 weeks then just spend it.
Even bigger drop this week, $14.15 at both places.
Quote from: gspren on August 20, 2021, 07:04:31 PM
Quote from: gspren on August 11, 2021, 08:03:17 AM
Quote from: gspren on August 07, 2021, 09:51:38 AM
Just checked 7/16 OSB at Lowes and HD, "down" to $26.35. How to get people to be happy with doubling your price? Just quadruple it first and then drop to "just double".
This morning Lowes and HD got the 7/16 OSB for $21.35, another 5 buck drop. I need 24+ sheets so every 5 buck drop is significant to me. I'll probably wait another 2 weeks then just spend it.
Even bigger drop this week, $14.15 at both places.
Yep I've got a skid ordered. Now I'm waiting for 5/8" plywood to plummet. It dropped some already.
I already feel bad for the guy with a stack of $45/sheet plywood rotting under a tarp somewhere.
I suspect it may jump again a bit, there may be a massive increase in sales again from people trying to jump on the lower prices. Will be interested to see the next little while play out
Mike, I believe the price is spf 2x4 stock per 1 mbf on a T T load.
Quote from: mike_belben on August 20, 2021, 09:03:27 PM
I already feel bad for the guy with a stack of $45/sheet plywood rotting under a tarp somewhere.
Yep I am waiting for it to hit $25/sheet before I put mine under a tarp.
:D
I just paid, wholesale, $9.96 per bdft for 8/4 FAS walnut, so it went up again. White oak at between $6.50 and $5 per bdft, so it's still sky high. I'm not seeing any drop at all in prices. I am seeing a distinct drop in quality. Rocker (yes, the catalog lumber store) called and offered to buy my wood, so it means they are getting pinched, also.
Oddly enough, and this is really odd, I am paying the exact same per bdft price for exotics as before, from multiple sources. Zero change in price over the last year. For example, prime African mahogany at $5 per bdft (the same as white oak now) and genuine 8/4 Honduran Mahogany at $8.50 per bdft which is less than 8/4 walnut.
Velly intellesting.
Have not even been to town to buy hardwood lumber for years. I know the last time I looked about 7 years ago, it was double the price 3 years before. And the Walnut looked like reject stuff, full of defect. If I wanted maple or birch these days, I would just go to the mill and get it green and air dry it myself. This other guy is just a high priced handler. :D The place used to be 3 big warehouse buildings, awhile back a new owner took over and working out of a barn. Nothing is climate controlled so MC is certainly not 12%. His page doesn't post pricing either. :D
Quote from: YellowHammer on August 21, 2021, 10:33:24 PMZero change in price over the last year.
Zero change in Teakprices either. since the 30-50% pricedrop after 2018, hindu buyers price drop. we haven't seen any rise in price over the last 3 years.
Good thing all my trees are in the larger diam category already (10-12"and up, 15+ years) and i went from roundwood international sale to milled timber national sale. and lately i went from timber to semiproduct sales, custom paneling. my prices increased 2500%, of course it's more work and more waste of wood
White Oak and Walnut are sky high. I've spent the summer trying to close 2 jobs. The white oak would be epic...the walnut has closed I think- decent volume but all small (converting to ag). I feel less comfortable about the white oak- property is for sale and the wealthy person that owns it is not even close to here so i have to work through 2 others but the trees are just dying, maybe lost 10% this summer alone. We hear european buyers are going to offer veneer pricing on the 12" diameter logs for the walnut tract. I'm just shocked, 12" veneer? What in the world.
Anyway, WO veneer would hit $7 on this stand all day long if it is clean up to double but no triple logs, with trucking fees of 1500/load paid by buyer. QS is at $2.50-2 (2 sided big). The big change is a bump of 3 sided veneer up to $3.5 (didn't ask for it) so I am thinking that by late fall we may see $4/bdft for a 3 sided veneer in rift (21" and up) logs. Now that's a banging price on a 3 sided log when doyle is really not killing your scale due to the size. I am going to weep a bit if we don't get that stand as the WO is starting to really die off.
That's an informative post. When I first started sawing red oak paid more than white.
OSB is down to 15 and change around here. 2x4x8 spf was mid 3s. Folks are still spending like crazy. I've had two customers in the last month with special orders that had to come buy and pick up their copy of the invoice. They then went to the bank and got checks from the bank for the half down payment. Both were driving new vehicles costing north of 50 grand. One of the orders was around $3500.00 and the other was close to 6 grand. It doesn't make sense to me to be spending money you don't have, but to each their own.
As of last week, No. 1 common white oak 4/4 was more expensive than FAS Red oak.
What's even more astounding is that FAS poplar is now more expensive than FAS red oak, at least it was last week.
No.1 common Hickory is double what it was last year, with big manufacturers refusing to saw in this hot weather. So the prices are staying up, and I'm buying and sawing hickory logs, along with poplar and other stuff.
Quote from: YellowHammer on August 22, 2021, 01:39:36 PM
As of last week, No. 1 common white oak 4/4 was more expensive than FAS Red oak.
What's even more astounding is that FAS poplar is now more expensive than FAS red oak, at least it was last week.
No.1 common Hickory is double what it was last year, with big manufacturers refusing to saw in this hot weather. So the prices are staying up, and I'm buying and sawing hickory logs, along with poplar and other stuff.
Hickory for high grade in hot weather? Might need 12' to get 8'
Just got off the phone with another builder. He needed 16' 2x12's but 24'ers were cheaper, its a crazy world.
Quote from: Don P on August 22, 2021, 08:52:49 PM
Just got off the phone with another builder. He needed 16' 2x12's but 24'ers were cheaper, its a crazy world.
24's either just came in or are old stock. Some dealers hold there original retail price.
Quote from: moodnacreek on August 22, 2021, 02:50:18 PM
Quote from: YellowHammer on August 22, 2021, 01:39:36 PM
As of last week, No. 1 common white oak 4/4 was more expensive than FAS Red oak.
What's even more astounding is that FAS poplar is now more expensive than FAS red oak, at least it was last week.
No.1 common Hickory is double what it was last year, with big manufacturers refusing to saw in this hot weather. So the prices are staying up, and I'm buying and sawing hickory logs, along with poplar and other stuff.
Hickory for high grade in hot weather? Might need 12' to get 8'
We visited a major flooring plant 2 weeks ago and they said that 1 common WO was too pricey for them ...I think it was $14xx/mbf. I didn't even look at the hickory pricing, where is that today?
We thought we'd be taking off quite a bit of side lumber but frankly it was just too little to fool with. If the tree has 16' it makes a fence board. Too much wane and it goes in our pile of seconds which we still sell for $1.10/bdft. So we are just cutting the one product. If we have flare on one end we cut our blocking out of it.
Even then it has taken all summer to get this old mill and novice users (my son and I) cutting true 1x6x16's. Working out now and so we just saw a few hundred and are bushed every day. A log deck with a turner and waste removal are the next purchases. We could cut 400 a day if not dealing with loading and waste to quite the extent we are.
I thought YHs comments on declining quality of WO and Walnut were the most interesting. That screams supply of high quality logs is drying up.
glad your sawmill is doing what you bought it for.
Not lumber but still part of building, 12-2 with ground romex dropped 10% this week from $160. to $144.40 for a 250' roll.
Today i was informed the "rate on trees has gone up to a thousand dollars each."
I will be sure to bring a bunch of trees in soon.
Quote from: mike_belben on August 23, 2021, 10:46:30 PM
Today i was informed the "rate on trees has gone up to a thousand dollars each."
I will be sure to bring a bunch of trees in soon.
People read stuff online and go from there.. This is why I have ignored a certain member when asked pricing info to my locale.
Landowner is paid very very well for the once in a lifetime harvest yet money has to be made on my end with all the risk and logistics of taking that tree from standing to market.
As luck would have it in the last 3 plus months doing repairs on a rental house because I'm a hoarder I did not need to buy one piece of lumber .That included some white oak flooring .Although the project was labor intensive it went well all things considered .
money is worth nothing when there is no stuff to exchange it for. take your money to a desert island by yourself and it is only useful for toilet paper, fire starting and a poor grade note pad. maybe you could scoop water with it.
its the stuff you get with money that has value. if you can gather and store all the stuff youll need for life on your own little mental island, youre already rich. the number of dollars that it costs to replace you stuff will just keep rising. the number of dollars it takes to acquire the stuff you havent already collected will keep rising too. so get the stuff as quickly as you can before it costs more. and always looks to buy it second hand after the first owner suffered the depreciation. my favorite place to shop is a scrapyard, by the pound.
Just about anything can be "recycled " into some other use .You're only limited by your imagination of seeing how to do it .Some people have the ability and some do not .It's been labeled as "Yankee ingenuity " or how to think outside of the box .A term first coined during the industrial revolution .Some times I think it's a blessing some times almost a curse .
2x4" CDN $550/th this week
OSB CDN $18/sheet
This has been a complete gong show! Word this morning is western Canadian softwood producers are scaling back because of oversupply and reduced demand but the fires are also going to be a major factor. Futures traders are probably drinking heavily. :D
Locally 2" x 6" x 16' are $25 for premium, #2 is $23
7/16" OSB $30 a sheet.
For some reason a lot higher than in Yarmouth, NS. By about $10 apiece. ::)
Cuz were special :laugh:
My brother priced some lumber last week thinking/hoping the prices went down but it was only the 8' 2"x4" that had dropped to pre pandemic prices. Pressure treated was cheaper than non treated, the guy at the store said that one guy framed his house with pressure treated (he asked the building inspector first).
Another lumber yard has been selling a lot of ¾" birch plywood because it was cheeper than spruce or fir.
Interesting times
Our horse fencing sold out, we didn't cut close to what we wanted but every stick sold. bark on spots? No problem we'll take it, too thin?- no problem, too thick- no problem. It was ridiculous. Our only problem has been taking forever to figure out the shafts were the problem and then blowing up a gearbox. By the time we really got going it was time to go back to cutting trees.
Yes but the bugs are worked out for the next whack at it. The next stretch will go better. Glad the startup venture worked for you.
Green DF 2x4x8 #2 & better, $3.86 yesterday, down from nearly $7 earlier in the summer and only twice as much as it was before the crud :)
Quote from: nativewolf on September 28, 2021, 06:17:47 AM
Our horse fencing sold out, we didn't cut close to what we wanted but every stick sold. bark on spots? No problem we'll take it, too thin?- no problem, too thick- no problem. It was ridiculous. Our only problem has been taking forever to figure out the shafts were the problem and then blowing up a gearbox. By the time we really got going it was time to go back to cutting trees.
Which species and dimensions did you cut for horse fencing? Is there an industry standard for horse fencing?
its gotta keep a horse in.
;D
1x6 white oak is typical in the east. Sometimes people use pine thats been painted or sealed. Don't want PT around horses. I see horse fence that has a sealer that looks like creosote but it surely is not. Different in different parts of the country. I'm seeing a lot of horse fence from the pvc forest these days$$$$$.
@Brad_bb (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=6191) would have some good input on fencing horses.
Quote from: btulloh on September 29, 2021, 03:06:46 PM
@Brad_bb (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=6191) would have some good input on fencing horses.
I'm not an expert. I only know all that we went through deciding what we were going to do for horse fencing. There are so many different options, many in conjunction with electric, and some not. What you do for outdoor stall run fences versus paddock fences are varied as well. It varies alot with budget too. I'd say it would be a real gamble to try to make something specifically targeted for horse fencing. If it were a board that could be used for horse fencing or many other applications...giving you many options and possibilities to sell. Maybe 5/4 1x6 grade white oak with no sapwood? Some people might buy the same in pine or larch or ?, if they are very price sensitive. But then, it's not going to last nearly as long. I knew a guy who was collecting pallets and any such scrap pallet wood he could get for free to make pig pens. I suspect he'll be remaking those in a year or less.
I've seen pen and pasture fences made with 4/4, 5/4, and 8/4. Three board, four board, five board and six board fences. I've seen PVC, fiberglass(from the natural gas industry) and steel pipe (also from gas/oil industry). Our stall runs are made from 2x6, 1/4" wall steel tubing and 6x6 1/4" steel posts. It was very expensive and could probably hold back elephants. But it was either that or a nice sports car.
For our pens, we use 50 year treated 6 and 8 inch posts. On the outside we used PVC coated tensile wire (Very thick coated that could not hurt horses. The bottom three wires are probably 1/2 inch diameter and the top is a 5" wide band with two wires embedded in them.) This is more for looks for people. We have a single electric rope line on the top on the inside at eye level so the horses can see it. Alternatively you could just use electric rope on the posts (We like Endura brand electric rope). You can also make rope gates using tension spring handles. Endura is much more economical and a very good solution.
With horse fences you have to be very careful with the height of your bottom board. Too low and a horse can lay down or roll up against the fence and get their leg under and not be able to get up or out, or break a leg.
I was at Lowe's today and I saw 2x4's x8 for $3.49. Before Covid I think they were $3.09.
Quote from: Brad_bb on September 29, 2021, 11:30:54 PM
Quote from: btulloh on September 29, 2021, 03:06:46 PM
@Brad_bb (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=6191) would have some good input on fencing horses.
I'm not an expert. I only know all that we went through deciding what we were going to do for horse fencing. There are so many different options, many in conjunction with electric, and some not. What you do for outdoor stall run fences versus paddock fences are varied as well. It varies alot with budget too. I'd say it would be a real gamble to try to make something specifically targeted for horse fencing. If it were a board that could be used for horse fencing or many other applications...giving you many options and possibilities to sell. Maybe 5/4 1x6 grade white oak with no sapwood? Some people might buy the same in pine or larch or ?, if they are very price sensitive. But then, it's not going to last nearly as long. I knew a guy who was collecting pallets and any such scrap pallet wood he could get for free to make pig pens. I suspect he'll be remaking those in a year or less.
I've seen pen and pasture fences made with 4/4, 5/4, and 8/4. Three board, four board, five board and six board fences. I've seen PVC, fiberglass(from the natural gas industry) and steel pipe (also from gas/oil industry). Our stall runs are made from 2x6, 1/4" wall steel tubing and 6x6 1/4" steel posts. It was very expensive and could probably hold back elephants. But it was either that or a nice sports car.
For our pens, we use 50 year treated 6 and 8 inch posts. On the outside we used PVC coated tensile wire (Very thick coated that could not hurt horses. The bottom three wires are probably 1/2 inch diameter and the top is a 5" wide band with two wires embedded in them.) This is more for looks for people. We have a single electric rope line on the top on the inside at eye level so the horses can see it. Alternatively you could just use electric rope on the posts (We like Endura brand electric rope). You can also make rope gates using tension spring handles. Endura is much more economical and a very good solution.
With horse fences you have to be very careful with the height of your bottom board. Too low and a horse can lay down or roll up against the fence and get their leg under and not be able to get up or out, or break a leg.
Thanks for those details. I'm looking to mill up some of my timber and was curious about the market. But what you said about not trying to mill specifically for that market since the specs vary makes sense.
Letter today from Robin Lee at Lee Valley Woodworking Tools.
"Dear Customer,
This time last year, I wrote an email to convey our uncertainty about what the fall would look like. This year, we have a much better idea of what to expect, as the hangover from COVID-19 continues to disrupt the economy.
We are now seeing lead times for some products that exceed one year, if our order even gets accepted – and not all do. International shipping continues to be an issue, with unprecedented backlogs throughout the supply chain, and costs that are several times what they were pre-COVID.
You can expect to see some supply shortages through the fall season and can count on many prices increasing. Most industries are also facing labor shortages (we're hiring too!), and this will affect the ability to handle spikes in volume or deliver services on a timely basis.
Within the next few weeks, we will be releasing our Christmas catalog, which is uncomfortably early for us. Again this year, we are recommending that you shop as early as possible, as we will not have the opportunity to replenish inventory before Christmas. For those who shop in-store, we also recommend ordering online and picking up in-store – that way, you know the products you need are waiting for you, and it helps us ensure that we can serve you as quickly as possible, at the time of your choosing.
I would also like to take this time to thank you all for your patience, understanding and support over the past year – it has made a real difference to our staff during trying times."
Quote from: SwampDonkey on October 14, 2021, 06:17:25 PM
Letter today from Robin Lee at Lee Valley Woodworking Tools.
"Dear Customer,
This time last year, I wrote an email to convey our uncertainty about what the fall would look like. This year, we have a much better idea of what to expect, as the hangover from COVID-19 continues to disrupt the economy.
We are now seeing lead times for some products that exceed one year, if our order even gets accepted – and not all do. International shipping continues to be an issue, with unprecedented backlogs throughout the supply chain, and costs that are several times what they were pre-COVID.
You can expect to see some supply shortages through the fall season and can count on many prices increasing. Most industries are also facing labor shortages (we're hiring too!), and this will affect the ability to handle spikes in volume or deliver services on a timely basis.
Within the next few weeks, we will be releasing our Christmas catalog, which is uncomfortably early for us. Again this year, we are recommending that you shop as early as possible, as we will not have the opportunity to replenish inventory before Christmas. For those who shop in-store, we also recommend ordering online and picking up in-store – that way, you know the products you need are waiting for you, and it helps us ensure that we can serve you as quickly as possible, at the time of your choosing.
I would also like to take this time to thank you all for your patience, understanding and support over the past year – it has made a real difference to our staff during trying times."
I can't bring myself to "like" the comment but Robin Lee called it as it is.
I appreciate his honesty and reporting facts beyond his control.
Happy Birthday Doc!
2x6x16 #2 SPF $15. Lowe's, Maryville TN
I have no idea what a 2x6x16' used to run but I can only compare to our oak 1x6x16' at $14. Shake, knots, and all. Lets just say fence boards are not structural grade.
Quote from: metalspinner on October 15, 2021, 08:33:12 AM
2x6x16 #2 SPF $15. Lowe's, Maryville TN
Including tax and the way that I calculate board feet, that is $1.15/bf.
The big commercial pine mills saw their 2x stock at a target thickness of 1.75" or a little less, then kiln dry to 19% and plane to a finished thickness of 1.5 inches. Therefore when I calculate bf in a store bought 2x, I calculate it thus:
6" wide x 16 feet long x 1.75 inches thick = 14 bf.
$15 x 1.07 (our sales tax rate) = $16.05 divided by 14 bf = $1.15.
the tax in TN is 9.75%
i used to deliver stuff to that HD from the pressure treater in stony point NC.
That's it, madness has touched France.
I was doing an invoice this morning.
A batten, 6x4 cm. About 1.5"x2.5" has raised a smidge more than 52%
My local sawmill has raised it's prices 14% and some change.
Not fun!
I have to invoice a door, with a window in. It's more or less a shutter. She told me "do it" I'll pay whatever.
10 hours work, easy. 204€ of wood, if i charge as i should, 88 of security window, 77 of hinges. I haven't looked at the lock yet. I bet she'll cringe. And i'm cheap.
2x6 x 16' #2 and better still double it was 3 years ago, but same lumber same company in Yarmouth only $3 more than 3 years ago. Gouge NB'ers.
Prices are falling here now that the knee jerk, brainless reaction crowd has had the orders filled and has left the building.
Prices had about tripled but are settling toward a doubling which is the exact right thing when the money supply in circulation has doubled. The market still works very well. Its the govt thats broken.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1024211333.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1635166085)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1024211333a.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1635166079)
Quote from: Satamax on October 25, 2021, 01:22:01 AM77 of hinges
77 euro for hinges? Must be some fancy hinges.
Dunno if you call those hinges. 11.53€ a piece, x3, plus margin and fitting, plus my taxes.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/19153/IMG_20211023_172724.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1635170355)
Quote from: Satamax on October 25, 2021, 10:02:08 AM
Dunno if you call those hinges. 11.53€ a piece, x3, plus margin and fitting, plus my taxes.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/19153/IMG_20211023_172724.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1635170355)
So when can the wife and I visit and take a look at those mts in the background. That looks like a real pretty place.
Quote from: Satamax on October 25, 2021, 10:02:08 AM
Dunno if you call those hinges. 11.53€ a piece, x3, plus margin and fitting, plus my taxes.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/19153/IMG_20211023_172724.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1635170355)
That makes more sense. I thought maybe you were talking about standard leaf hinges.
Quote from: quilbilly on October 25, 2021, 11:24:36 AM
Quote from: Satamax on October 25, 2021, 10:02:08 AM
Dunno if you call those hinges. 11.53€ a piece, x3, plus margin and fitting, plus my taxes.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/19153/IMG_20211023_172724.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1635170355)
So when can the wife and I visit and take a look at those mts in the background. That looks like a real pretty place.
Well, whenever you want. I made a friend on the MIMF many years back. Who came all the way from socal, to visit! :D And another one from South Africa.
Here's another view.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/19153/automne.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1440153598)
Been a little uptick in 2x4's over the last month CDN $800/th, about same as a year ago. Must be the rebuilding after the hurricanes. Panel and pulp prices have been flat.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on October 28, 2021, 11:05:06 AM
Been a little uptick in 2x4's over the last month CDN $800/th, about same as a year ago. Must be the rebuilding after the hurricanes. Panel and pulp prices have been flat.
Everybody around me has been building new sheds, garages etc while the price is low, mostly I think that time is passing though as like you said uptick in 2x4 sticks
Looking at that picture of the Alps makes me want to play "Matterhorn". ;D
(Many have tried and many have died, to climb the Matterhorn, the mighty Matterhorn.)
smile_banjoman
Price yesterday on the exchange for 1mbf of spf was up to $700.
2 x 4" prices have dropped $100 this month so far. OSB is $15.60 a sheet now. Pulp slow gradual decline. All on the government price tracking page.
Pricing has been stable, but I'm seeing 'out of stock' at Kent's website. Kent is a hardware and building centre franchise licensed by the Irvings to owner operators. The local one was just doubled in size this past year at the same time Home Hardware built a new store the size of a Home Depot on new developed land. But it is not stocked like a Home Depot, lots of wasted floor space. You could drive a transport truck between the isles.
I wish this scotch and red pine I'm cutting right now was worth double . Its up a fair bit from last year but way way less than white pine
We only get good money on red pine if for poles and log cabin wood. Not worth much for posts, except after it is treated it's a fortune. :D Our Scots pine here is crooked junk. Straight jack pine is good lumber wood, but not as good a price as spruce. Which itself is less than it was 20 years ago. ::)
spruce here is brutal in price , not even worth cutting its that bad, spruce is the same price as willow which is pretty much nothing , your cutting cost is more than what the tree is worth and you still got to truck it
About the size of it, at $40/cord trucking. :D
Prices over CDN $1200 on 2 x 4" at year end, will get new data Thursday.
premium 2 x 6" x 16' $20.69 each locally
#2 2 x 6" x 16' $19.74 each
Just keep grubbing that pine ground to make room for more solar "farms". It'll work out.
it does appear we will go from a glutton to a shortage without ever passing stable equilibrium like how things used to work.
Old boy comes in yesterday, says he needs a few hundred foot of 1x for a temporary plastic covered shelter to heat masonary. Says he got his barn siding from me 20 years ago. Says I, lumber prices went back up, says he, thats why I'm here. He is the first one to tell the truth! All the rest , of the unknowns, say the came here because they buy local. B.S. Mr. tell the truth will get a deal.
for a while my wife was employed by a family that owns the two most expensive gas stations in town, and i bought my gas there. still do on the rare occasion when i have $10 more than i owe that day. why was the cost higher? because they pay and treat their people better.. theyre all small town family and not a walmart grinding the cheapest human to dirt.
i figure it as paying myself. i know that money i sent out is coming back to me. not going to a NJ shell corp owned by some foreign billionaire, gone forever. those dollars come straight back to the belbens on friday, almost like a savings bond.
Small business profits go back into the town they reside typically, it helps everyone in that town buying local, not just the business. When you buy stuff from big box stores it all gets sent overseas or hoarded into big cities. When they're are more small business, big guys cost lowers meaning even local business cost lowers. These days government work closely with top .1 to regulate all that out, hardly real capitalism.
Green DF. 2x4x8, #2 Better, just under $6 this weekend. Was down to $3+ a while back.
we havent seen a $6 2x4 since 2018 and were 2 hours to georgia pine, with pine plantations 5 or 8 miles from home as the crow flies.
The SPF market is now around $1,100. Tariff's are a reality from our current government, (they went up! and larger story line therein) that affect Canadian wood coming in from mostly B.C., CA where over 50% of North American SPF comes from.
I paid $300MBF for top grade WP logs delivered to the mill here in KY last week. Same logger gets same price from a larger, local mill that ships those EWP logs on his trucks to another buyer in N KY, at a price point that covers trucking 2 hours above us. Locally the lower grade EWP gets ~ 20cents from the cabin trade mills. There isn't much EWP growing here now and often little market for pine of any species.
Couple of local post mills get the field pine in this area.
So I've read, larger home builders don't care about the lumber price influences on home costs, just their supply & labor issues, as home prices are insane lately.
Low interest mortgages drives that whole senario?
2" x 4" x 8' SPF is CDN $4.91 local
Quote from: kantuckid on January 11, 2022, 12:47:22 PM
So I've read, larger home builders don't care about the lumber price influences on home costs, just their supply & labor issues, as home prices are insane lately.
Low interest mortgages drives that whole senario?
money printing, cheap debt, big box retail seeing the chance to gouge on scarcity news drama, covid migration, political migration, covid induced YOLO culture, and de-dollarization. that is foreign held dollars flooding into the US to be exchanged for real assets before we print the dollar even lower.
all have contributed to demands outstripping supplies. the price must reconcile the sudden imbalance. retailers cant change supply or demand. only price.
First week or so of December 1/2" cdx was around 20.00$ sheet. Decided I'd take a bite after the first of the year. Checked over the weekend 35.00$ ::). 'C'est la vie'.....
doh.
the 4 state tornado sent us right back up as it was just starting to come down to inflation corrected normal.
Just wait until the newly created cross border trucker shortage surcharge hits.
I here bits and pieces about people wanting the start softwood/stud sawmills, one up in the Adirondacks. they better hurry up. Right now it would work for sure but this could drop dead before the mortgage is paid off. That is what happens to sawmills all the time.
interest rates are rising, so home building just might slow down.
Quote from: mike_belben on January 11, 2022, 05:02:24 PM
doh.
the 4 state tornado sent us right back up as it was just starting to come down to inflation corrected normal.
That along with a big hurricane, both mentioned earlier in this thread when talking about the renewed price climb a while back since late August.
Last week at the pharmacy I heard a pharmacist talking to an elderly lady, saying the price of her planned home was going to be $300,000 (probably before pandemic) and now they were asking for $400,000 to build it. She said no way was she forking over another $100,000. :D A $300,000 home in these parts is only 2000 sq feet, plus basement and 2-car garage, pre-pandemic. These people that say, 'oh the price of new home construction only went up $30,000', haven't got a clue about real costs. :D If material goes up 10%, labour will go up 20-30% more, you can guarantee it. Everyone on up the line will want that bonus over price. That's the way the real world works. You can't hire a licensed carpenter around here for less than $40/hr. Only the guys that do remodelling because no one inspects their stuff up here. Legally the owner is suppose to send notice of improvements, most ain't. I see it all around me. Once in awhile one of them gets fined, which killed their savings on their 'deal'. :D
quote: "A building permit is required for all new homes, additions, renovations, mobile or mini homes, enlargement of windows, fences, garages, swimming pools, garden sheds, or any other structural additions/changes to a property."
And for that I don't blame them, government dips their hands in peoples pockets enough.
I do. That means someone gets a free ride, when I pay for mine. So that's fair? Why not repeal it from the law books instead of going underground? Sell off the civic centre I'm not nor the family is using, close the nursing home, don't need it. Look after your own.
That's a interesting outlook, looks like theft all around to me. There are people who want us to pay even more too. Never stops.
Your living in a society which 'demands' services. They have to be paid for.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 05:37:38 AM
Your living in a society which 'demands' services. They have to be paid for.
Thats right we're living almost pure communism. Coerced into everything.
What we have is what we've asked for. We all vote.
Where the property taxes go, which is where property improvements (above) go into the tax base by changing the property assessment.
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Corporate/Promo/localgovreform/docs/LSD%20Postcard%20-%20Web%20version%20NB%20Generic%20Letter%20v3_EN.pdf
Yes the general population was brainwashed into socialism/communism, I’m on their side, they’re not though.
If the people want something capitalism will deliver it, people want safe houses(inspections etc)? There will be someone there in capitalism to meet that need, comes down to individual responsibility, but that’s long gone, all coercion, all forced.
When you hire more government do you think these people are going to be looking into their sectors for reasons to NOT have government? You think they’re gonna think themselves out of a job? They’re only looking for reasons we NEED them to regulate, even though there are many more reasons for them to not. It’s it’s own entity with its own agenda and self it looks out for.
Paying for a police force, fire department, military, rockets to the moon, roads to travel on, waste management, water supply. All communism. :D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 06:36:47 AM
Paying for a police force, fire department, military, rockets to the moon, roads to travel on, waste management, water supply. All communism. :D
Strawman? I didnt say we didnt need police, military or schooling.
Oh, you get to choose what is or isn't, but no one else can. ;D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 06:43:22 AM
Oh, you get to choose what is or isn't, but no one else can. ;D
What is this some kind of failed Gotcha? There is no gotcha, for a prospering economy/free market you need police and government to keep you from being coerced, bribed or attacked. They are suppose to keep you from coercion not force you into it. But it's clear they have gotten to you deep.
And you ignore all the other stuff you enjoy and don't want to pay for it. All these things cost, it's paid by tax.
Sure, I personally don't find the need for certain things. If I'm an old man in a nursing home and I have no one to leave my fortune to, I don't mind paying my way. Don't ask me to liquidate land and housing out from underneath my family to pay when the guy beside me with nothing but his name gets a free bed ride through to the end.
Let them keep taxing everything to death and eventually swampdonkey, it wont matter how you vote because there will be only 2 types of people left in the area. The rich who have access to other peoples money and avoid taxes through corporate deductions, and the welfare class. If you havent noticed both of those groups vote the same.
Everyone getting taxed senseless will move away and leave you footing the whole bill. Youll see. Its happening all over the world.
But I'm not ignoring anything SD....you're just putting words in my mouth. All I want is the ingredients needed for actual freedom, capitalism, free markets, etc
How would you know what I'm enjoying and what I'm not?
As you notice I never listed anything you enjoy, but you enjoy lots of other stuff. I'm darn sure it's more than being watched by police.
Quote from: mike_belben on January 11, 2022, 01:11:58 PMretailers cant change supply or demand. only price.
@mike_belben (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=33722)
True, they can't change those directly, nor short term, but a given supply and demand exists for every price. When price changes, supply and demand do as well. When the price goes up demand goes down (less buyers at a higher price). And supply goes up when there's more money to be made at a higher price, until supply and demand are equal again at a new price. Works perfectly until government gets involved (think rent caps, and Nixon's wage and price controls in the 70's).
Government at its best is a necessary evil. At its worst? N. Korea, Iran, China, Venezuela. North America is somewhere in between.
Quote from: mike_belben on January 12, 2022, 07:29:10 AM
Everyone getting taxed senseless will move away and leave you footing the whole bill. Youll see. Its happening all over the world.
You guys are completely out of context. Tax assessment pays for services. I'm not talking about subsidized farming, tax breaks for the rich or whatever one dreams up. Is it fair that I build a house for $250,000 and get taxes on that much assessment, but you can improve your place and possibly increase it's value from $180,000 to $280,000 but you don't have to be reassessed? I see no fairness in that. Apparently you do.
Expect tax assessments to skyrocket with the 600B our government gave away, 30k debt per person.
Quote from: HemlockKing on January 12, 2022, 08:04:36 AM
Expect tax assessments to skyrocket with the 600B our government gave away, 30k debt per person.
Property tax assessment isn't even part of that debt payment. That is federal, thus income tax pays that debt. Again your off track, and it's not property tax related.
Quote from: PoginyHill on January 12, 2022, 07:57:18 AM
Quote from: mike_belben on January 11, 2022, 01:11:58 PMretailers cant change supply or demand. only price.
@mike_belben (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=33722)
True, they can't change those directly, nor short term, but a given supply and demand exists for every price. When price changes, supply and demand do as well. When the price goes up demand goes down (less buyers at a higher price). And supply goes up when there's more money to be made at a higher price, until supply and demand are equal again at a new price. Works perfectly until government gets involved (think rent caps, and Nixon's wage and price controls in the 70's).
Government at its best is a necessary evil. At its worst? N. Korea, Iran, China, Venezuela. North America is somewhere in between.
Governments control the price more than you think, it's in their best interests to keep prices high for more money from %. Along with getting "donations" to regulate out competitors, so really they control the prices AND demand AND supply.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:06:34 AM
Quote from: HemlockKing on January 12, 2022, 08:04:36 AM
Expect tax assessments to skyrocket with the 600B our government gave away, 30k debt per person.
Property tax assessment isn't even part of that debt payment. That is federal, thus income tax pays that debt. Again your off track, and it's not property tax related.
Not on paper but to think it wont effect them? yeah no, it's going to. the economy is being distorted. Called a inflation tax friend.
If everything/all goods/products inflate then why wouldn't property assessments? aren't they to judge according to market value?? market value ties into the prices that dictate it: price of wood because for a house you need wood, or plastic, or fuel to transport etc etc
Quote from: HemlockKing on January 12, 2022, 08:07:52 AM
Governments control the price more than you think, it's in their best interests to keep prices high for more money from %. Along with getting "donations" to regulate out competitors, so really they control the prices AND demand AND supply.
Yes for sure, government influences prices with subsidies, look at how they drive farm prices up. If the government didn't buy farms the market would never afford the land for new entrants on top of the equipment costs. The retiring farmer would barely cover the bills after the farm sale. The debt could never be paid these days by a new farmer. Lumber prices are higher because it needs to be graded and kilned by legislation. All adds up.
Tax assessment is based on new construction and sale prices in your area. They work out a funding formula for local service districts. $0.xxxx per service on every $X of assessment.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:17:25 AM
Tax assessment is based on new construction and sale prices in your area.
Which is effected by the rest of the market...aka not just my area.
Feds control price by regulating competition out, which like poigny said, price up and down has a factor on demand, well if they control the price....well see where I'm going with this. Supply goes away when they make competition go away..
"When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty"
Quote from: HemlockKing on January 12, 2022, 08:21:16 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:17:25 AM
Tax assessment is based on new construction and sale prices in your area.
Which is effected by the rest of the market...aka not just my area.
When someone from Ontario buys a $40,000 house for $90,000 then yes. That's a local sale by someone willing to spend more than anyone locally. My assessment is not based out of Toronto housing.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:24:30 AM
Quote from: HemlockKing on January 12, 2022, 08:21:16 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:17:25 AM
Tax assessment is based on new construction and sale prices in your area.
Which is effected by the rest of the market...aka not just my area.
When someone from Ontario buys a $40,000 house for $90,000 then yes. That's a local sale by someone willing to spend more than anyone locally. My assessment is not based out of Toronto housing.
Then there are people from ontario than can not afford 90k for a 40k house so where do they move? typically a place cheaper, turning that place more expensive(raising local demand), and it keeps trickling down. I'm surprised you aren't already noticing this with Canadas housing market(mass immigration into BC/Ontario driving housing prices, all by plan of course) as it is today.
So yes, it all has a effect.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:06:34 AM
Quote from: HemlockKing on January 12, 2022, 08:04:36 AM
Expect tax assessments to skyrocket with the 600B our government gave away, 30k debt per person.
Property tax assessment isn't even part of that debt payment. That is federal, thus income tax pays that debt. Again your off track, and it's not property tax related.
This threads off the rails? :D Turned into a Canadian something or other?
In my KY newspaper today, they mention two new bills in our KY legislature to adjust our vehicle property tax laws which have said the taxes must come from a main source-being the NADA/JD Power book. Given that used vehicles are through the roof lately- if left alone it means property taxes this year go sky high in KY. With the federal Homestead tax relief law (cuts real estate taxes in half if your old enough) we pay far more on a 2015 Ford F-150 PU truck in taxes than on a home and acreage. Then there's the SUV and so on. Not to mention our homeowners insurance will rocket upward too given that KY Farm Bureau covers most real estate in KY. Home costs factor in as well, matters not that we built ours with sweat equity and not subsidized mortgages. This could grow into politics even more if I go on.
Back to lumber prices... ;)
They are exiting Ontario and coming here, we've had 13,470 people last year, mainly Ontario. It's not the other way. NS typically gets BC immigrants, they don't like NB cold as much. :D Those Ontario and BC markets are climbing with in province families wanting to own instead of rent, not immigrants. That's the precise story I see.
Pretty soon we will have to put in place a non mobility communist act. You can't come here. :D
Well, I'm living in Nova Scotia so I can tell you it's ontarians getting priced out of their home regions moving here. Ontario plates everywhere.
It's incredible how passive aggressive and sarcastic you are, you're into this with your ego in mind, I'm not.
Yeah demand for new housing in Ontario drives prices up, thus they are leaving to come here. Exactly what I said.
I know a couple families that moved down to the Fundy coast on land they purchased for far less than up there and live in cabins. They've been in the news and I know precisely where one family is just from their description of the area. I say go for it, if that's your happy place. ;D
Mobility communist act, we both know what you were doing with that sentence.
It would be quite communist to ban mobility wouldn't it? I mean you have to stay inside your borders? I remember communists and communes doing it a few times. Ever hear of North Korea or Jonestown? ;D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:03:08 AMI see no fairness in that. Apparently you do.
life isnt fair, so i dont waste my energy crying about it, or trying to make sure that since i was screwed, everyone else gets a fair dose of my misery. i invest my time into warning others to watch their 6 because it got me and youre next.
the more tax money you send to government, they larger they grow themselves so i am for a platform of deny them their money at every turn. keep the govt broke, and keep the money in your own kids bellies and on their feet and their backs. if youve got 300k to spare for a box to live in good for you. most people dont. thats why theyre indentured to the lenders for most of their lives, stuck at jobs they tend to hate.
Again...putting words in my mouth, where did I say I'm for preventing people to move provinces? My point is, these people wouldn't be doing so if the government didn't mass immigrate people out of financial existence in these immigration centers, meaning, housing wouldn't have skyrocket like it did, 300k added onto the average home cost over the last 5 years.
Part. of. the. plan.
Quote from: mike_belben on January 12, 2022, 09:25:33 AM
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 08:03:08 AMI see no fairness in that. Apparently you do.
life isnt fair, so i dont waste my energy crying about it, or trying to make sure that since i was screwed, everyone else gets a fair dose. i invest my time into warning others to watch their 6 because it got me and youre next.
the more tax money you send to government, they larger they grow themselves so i am for a platform of deny them their money at every turn. keep the govt broke, and keep the money in your own kids bellies and on their feet and their backs. if youve got 300k to spare for a box to live in good for you. most people dont. thats why theyre indentured to the lenders for most of their lives, stuck at jobs they tend to hate.
And every time they grow...more people thinking of more reasons why we need MORE government...because...lets be honest nobody is trying to brainstorm their way out of a paycheque, especially a easy government one.
Back to lumber prices and Forestry, please.
The discussion I was having was over property assessment and what it pays for. If you want to go down a different path with you're blame game, it's time to look at yourself and see what you're doing different to make a change.
Quote from: WDH on January 12, 2022, 09:42:59 AM
Back to lumber prices and Forestry, please.
Yes, indeed.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on January 12, 2022, 09:44:01 AM
The discussion I was having was over property assessment and what it pays for. If you want to go down a different path with you're blame game, it's time to look at yourself and see what you're doing different to make a change.
I think you should take you own advice and stop with the personal attacks and low blows, and just leave personal ego out of the discussion at debate from now on.
You're on thin ice here. End it.
Now what is lumber doing in NS lately?
im pretty sure there are 3 of us on thin ice.
Next person that make a political comment on the regular forestry forums gets a one week posting ban. Tell yer friends and neighbors I aint got time for anything right now past tickin and clickin.
And I mean it.
understood, thanks for not bootin us jeff.
My brother who lives about 20 miles SE of Richmond VA bought some 2x4x8 pine from a small mill off Facebook Market place yesterday @3. (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=31203)00 each. Probably not grade stamped but doesn't need to be for his project.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/25189/image0_282029.jpeg?easyrotate_cache=1643974713)
Not to go off topic stave buyer but what kind of el camino is that? 🤔
Is it air ride? Im surprised its not squatting.
Quote from: OH logger on February 04, 2022, 07:22:36 AM
Not to go off topic stave buyer but what kind of el camino is that? 🤔
Actually the "el camino" was the reason he sent the picture. He just bought it. Hyundai Santa Cruz.
That thing is ugly, sorry to your brother Stavebuyer :)
It's probably a ranchero.
Quote from: HemlockKing on February 04, 2022, 11:46:42 AM
That thing is ugly, sorry to your brother Stavebuyer :)
I definitely don't agree with you. I am currently looking at buying one of the Santa Cruz or Ridgeline trucks. I had a New Tundra 1794 on order but just canceled it with all the problems and delays Toyota is having. Figured I would go with something smaller for now till they get the issues worked out. Tried the Tachoma but it had uncomfortable seating and rode terrible so decided to look at vehicles that are more comfortable with better gas mileage. Both have 1500 pound load capacity, 5k towing, and a very comfortable ride with good seating position. Less then 3 month availability is a big plus these days also. They are great little trucks that will fill my current needs.
Prices are falling again for lumber, plateaued the end of Jan. Hmm, same time of the trucker protests.
Priced T&G 5/8 spruce plywood for subfloor 64.98 a sheet that is crazy. No such thing as a cheap plywood shack anymore.
You'd think spruce was scarce. Where are all these houses going up? Not in these parts. In fact one, not even 1500 sq feet, two others just shacks. We have people moving here to live in camps and 100 year old clinkers. Crabbe's mill yard is plugged full of lumber, never been empty, not once. I know we certainly lost capacity, one OSB plant shutdown at the beginning of COVID-19 in St Stephen. That's before restrictions. Not sure of the status of Arbec in Miramachi, I assume it's running. My house is full of Arbec material, only wood that wasn't Canadian was radiata pine doors.
Quote from: 21incher on February 04, 2022, 07:34:41 PM
Quote from: HemlockKing on February 04, 2022, 11:46:42 AM
That thing is ugly, sorry to your brother Stavebuyer :)
I definitely don't agree with you. I am currently looking at buying one of the Santa Cruz or Ridgeline trucks. I had a New Tundra 1794 on order but just canceled it with all the problems and delays Toyota is having. Figured I would go with something smaller for now till they get the issues worked out. Tried the Tachoma but it had uncomfortable seating and rode terrible so decided to look at vehicles that are more comfortable with better gas mileage. Both have 1500 pound load capacity, 5k towing, and a very comfortable ride with good seating position. Less then 3 month availability is a big plus these days also. They are great little trucks that will fill my current needs.
I'm looking at the Ridgeline. My Pavement Princess RAM 1500 EcoDiesel is super comfy on the hwy, great fuel economy, but downsizing makes sense for me. If payload and towing capacity are important folks should be looking for at least a 3/4-1 ton. I just want something comfy on the hwy. Off Road capability? Yeah, right I'm taking a 40-80k vehicle off in the woods and scratch the paint up? Nope. I do that with my Polaris Ranger.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on February 05, 2022, 11:03:35 AM
You'd think spruce was scarce. Where are all these houses going up? Not in these parts. In fact one, not even 1500 sq feet, two others just shacks. We have people moving here to live in camps and 100 year old clinkers. Crabbe's mill yard is plugged full of lumber, never been empty, not once. I know we certainly lost capacity, one OSB plant shutdown at the beginning of COVID-19 in St Stephen. That's before restrictions. Not sure of the status of Arbec in Miramachi, I assume it's running. My house is full of Arbec material, only wood that wasn't Canadian was radiata pine doors.
Texas is in the mdist of quite the growth spurt as a lot of high tech is moving to Austin or just expanding in Austin. Washington DC is exploding outwards, suburbs at my doorstep so to speak. 20% increase in population in our county in 5 years. All the NYC folks building second homes out by Barge. The economy has been in a long sustained boom since 2012 and the housing crisis overbuild is finally all over. It took from 2007 to 2014 for prices to recover in many areas.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on February 05, 2022, 11:03:35 AMWhere are all these houses going up? Not in these parts.
Central Florida is in a building frenzy. 3 story wood apartment buildings going up everywhere. Lot prices are thru the roof if you can find one. And yes, they fill up soon as they get final inspection.
I see a lot of buying and selling in areas, not much for new construction. I saw that on Grafton Hill where I lived for 5 years. Places kept recycling through the real estate agents. :D Then maybe 1 or 2 new houses now and again. All the new construction for 2 or 3 years happened on government hiring boon and retirements. So not much of that is from anyone making anything with their hands. And a huge number was retired farmers in the area. More money in the bank that no one was after than they seen in 40 years of farming. And that's a fact. :D When I see a sawmill plugged with lumber all the time, supply is outpacing demand in my math. :D
Maybe you guys are getting all the overflow out of Ontario down there. We got a huge bunch here, that drove our growth numbers above any year previous for decades. :D Now we are seeing tenants on low incomes getting tossed from apartments with huge rent increases. Try tent city life up here on the tundra. Meanwhile business as usual, ignore the marginalized and vulnerable. ::)
Housing markets are local and ours is on fire. People moving in and high paying jobs everywhere. So they get pushed out to where I live and commute, or they buy out a local so they can have a piece of waterfront. Then we get pushed to eastern wa or idaho and repeat the process.
People moving in here from the west, left high paying jobs. They left behind high paying house prices. Plus they hated the rat race in those environments. Sell a house for $800,000 and buy one for $90,000, pretty good deal.
We sold a house to a retired NASA engineer. He then flip flopped real estate all over Grafton. And now some company he was affiliated with in the US begged him to come work. So he returned to the grind. Must have been a pile of money on the table. :D He was already a millionaire before he came here, wife, no kids. I call all this flip flop activity, real estate drifters. Others on your side of the border might call them carpetbaggers. :D Make a buck and get out before the real estate tax catches up. After you sell your first place, income tax kicks in on any future one. I suspect crossing borders resets it all after a year or two. Money men know the game. :D
Middle tennessee is flooding with refugees from high tax states.
The typical way someone lands here in my immediate area is if they run out of money to survive someplace else. A lot of them start over on these land company lots where you put a grand or two down and make 10yr payments. They usually start out in a mennonite shed house since the singlewides cost what doublewides did. Campers are common too but the shed house is much better built and will outlast the camper by far
. I seen people startover here in tents.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on February 06, 2022, 03:23:33 AM
People moving in here from the west, left high paying jobs. They left behind high paying house prices. Plus they hated the rat race in those environments. Sell a house for $800,000 and buy one for $90,000, pretty good deal.
We sold a house to a retired NASA engineer. He then flip flopped real estate all over Grafton. And now some company he was affiliated with in the US begged him to come work. So he returned to the grind. Must have been a pile of money on the table. :D He was already a millionaire before he came here, wife, no kids. I call all this flip flop activity, real estate drifters. Others on your side of the border might call them carpetbaggers. :D Make a buck and get out before the real estate tax catches up. After you sell your first place, sales tax kicks in on any future one. I suspect crossing borders resets it all after a year or two. Money men know the game. :D
I wanted to spend My life on the homestead, know every stone, work the land and improve the place, die there like the others. It didn't work out. To me life was never all about hit and run.
CDN $1600/th SPF 2 x 4's and $49 a sheet for OSB
i hope i have lots of grandkids and they feel the same way doug.
2 x 4's CDN$1800/th, has it peeked for the year?
Panel prices peeked last month and have been slowly falling since. OSB CDN$48/sheet this week.
Our other house sold in 2019 for $280,000, 2 years after we sold (2017) and now listed for sale at $529,000.
https://www.royallepage.ca/en/property/new-brunswick/grafton/21-harnau-street/17195115/mlsnb069825
Half sheets of 7/16 osb 36.00 and crappy studs were 8.99 at the local Menard's last night. ::)
Futures are still sky high.
Lumber exports off the continent have declined and growth in NA expected to be 1.3% this year. Offshore imports are expected to be +10%. US house sales fell -2%, and mortgage rates are climbing. Futures for random length for May 2022 is a -16.8% drop, for Nov 2022 it's -34.10%.
The futures contract traded on Chicago Mercantile Exchange specifies that the lumber must be manufactured in certain U.S. states and Canadian provinces.
[Sources: WSJ , US Commerce Dept., CME]
My time delivering semi loads of big box lumber to the bigbox lumber "shortage" creaters is enough of an experience to know that the "shortage" will not end until the economy officially crashes and people suddenly cancel construction projects. Only when they big box stores stop moving lumber will they compete downward on price to make a sale. The 'crisis' is simply a repricing to account for inflation. Volume is probably basically normal at this point.
When interest rates go way up itll tighten lending, shrink the money supply and strengthen the dollar causing retail lumber to drop
The SAME day that social media was screaming shortage, the receivers were saying this is 2x more lumber than we normally have.. Where the hell am i sposta put it all? We dont know why the bigwigs are ordering it all. That was the same at almost a dozen home depots i delivered to. There was no shortage at mills or treaters.
If you were a price setter and saw the money supply had doubled, youd make up a shortage story so as not to be accused of gouging by the masses when you repriced your real goods to reflect the new lower value of the dollar. Its just repricing due to covid printing. Retail prices cant change until money supply (and thus lumber demand) is changed which wont come until more stimulus or more interest rates. If those dont change neither will lumber prices.
Interest rates are climbing, but it's not a quick jump, just in quarters, delayed by months between. Already gone up 0.5% this year here.
here in the states the lending markets have raised rates ahead of the feds advertised hike plan but i speculate in the coming few months we will see events unfold that cause a much more rapid hike. time will tell. im just along for the ride. if lumber is too high i dont buy it. if its cheap ill buy extra and store it like anything else. just common sense.
It has never been this easy to charge good money for lumber. Did 50 2x5x12 r. oak side boards for a fleet of concrete on site mixer hoppers. They will also take some 8 footers that i will charge 1.50 bf for and the 12's @ 2.00 bf. Customers for this kind of green hardwood are comparing it against 2x4 spf @ $1.75 ! Aren't I a nice guy? :)
every doug has its day. ;D
Yeah, I have a small shop to build 24x20', but I'm not paying high prices for spruce lumber.
There are no house start boons in this area and mills are plugged full, have been the last 3 years. Ya gotta have a job and it better be $25/hr plus or you'll be laughed out of the bank.
Hardwood pricing is at a different scale than spruce lumber prices. Always has been. Hardwood is trim, steps, rails, cupboards and furniture, higher end use.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 26, 2022, 06:21:42 AM
Yeah, I have a small shop to build 24x20', but I'm not paying high prices for spruce lumber.
There are no house start boons in this area and mills are plugged full, have been the last 3 years. Ya gotta have a job and it better be $25/hr plus or you'll be laughed out of the bank.
Hardwood pricing is at a different scale than spruce lumber prices. Always has been. Hardwood is trim, steps, rails, cupboards and furniture, higher end use.
Yes that is true in a commercial sense. But for a local use small sawmill you need a niche, something the big guys can't be bothered with that you can get retail for like trailer planking, horse fencing, fence post, etc.
Those types of things are mostly white cedar or PT spruce (decking) in this area. I've seen 3" hardwood decking on scales before, it's lasts about 3 years. And softwood has to be even thicker. A load of wood on a straight truck can really put a bunch of hurt on hardwood decking on a set of scales, seen it. :D
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 27, 2022, 06:23:33 PM
Those types of things are mostly white cedar or PT spruce (decking) in this area. I've seen 3" hardwood decking on scales before, it's lasts about 3 years. And softwood has to be even thicker. A load of wood on a straight truck can really put a bunch of hurt on hardwood decking on a set of scales, seen it. :D
Forest products are interesting because different trees grow in different areas and how the wood is put to use also. People get stuck thinking it is the same all over. I was once like that in my thinking. I would stop at a mill 100 miles from home and not understand why they where those logs I would never bother with. Anyhow down here we have in my county almost no softwood and we are overwhelmed in hardwood, mostly oak and white oak would do very well on those scales. Even harder and longer lasting is black locust, an open grown pioneer. Hard to get long lengths but it brings good money
Black locust is an incredible wood for lasting durability. Miserable to work with when dry but well worth the effort.
Starting to see cracks in investment real estate deals. Recently one default on such investment where $10M vanished in thin air.
Real estate company collapse, money vanishes. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/epic-company-collapses-real-estate-500-homes-1.6399770)
@SwampDonkey (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=1009) That is an interesting read. Sounds like these people were running a Ponzi scheme. It amazes me the tiny amount of research people are willing to do before investing their money into something so unproven. Not that investing into a property management/investment company is unproven, but this company in particular. The point cannot be reiterated enough, if it seems to good to be true, it probably is. One page promissory notes with no restrictions, <10 year old company with a unbelievable track record, vacancy rates at 60%, etc..... The list goes on. Where's the Red Flag emoji when you need it.
Ponzi schemes often are hatched when people think things can't go wrong. To send $50k to folks without credentials...bizarre. Oh I see dwyatt had the same thought.
Also note that interest rate increases will slow demand (at least it should) but inventory (supply) is still terrible. There just are not many homes. My wife and the team she works for have list of wannabe buyers. No homes to sell them. 10 people have given authorization to make offers on the spot and sign contracts sight unseen. They can't find any houses to sell them. So demand is smokin at least here and in SW VA and in NC where we know what is happening. Can't speak for TX or NYC or CA etc but I don't see any big changes.
I think the problem is almost all supply side. Builders got out of the business in 2008- forced out. Then they did not get replaced.
The St Louis Fed Reserve does a bunch of interesting stats on housing. Research wise, they are conservative.
Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States (MSACSR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR)
It's an interesting metric to watch, doesn't account for things like no units for sale but it does predict crashes pretty well. Based on where we sit now this would not indicate any realestate crash coming.
I'm following all this pretty closely now considering our loan obligations with the new harvester.
This is a few months old but the is the basis for the problem. We are millions of homes short.
America is short more than 5 million homes, study says (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html)
Who knows though...eyes wide open
America has become a massive housing construction site (https://news.yahoo.com/housing-construction-america-135218459.html)
Data that indicates supply side is trying to catch up but can't. Maybe if supply side could make a dent in completions it would ease pent up demand.
The supply issue just depends on where you are. I can get all the construction material I want today, I'm just not going to pay their prices. It's not hard to get, it's hard to justify paying for. Not a mill around here without a yard full of lumber or OSB that I've seen. Some turning grey. Just came from town yesterday and piles of Arbek OSB stacked 5 bundles high all in wrap, not busted open. We make 99% of construction material right here, even the nails and screws. You go to the contractor counter and you get the good stuff and the staff that knows something. At the other counter for walk in and out sales, it's totally different experience. :D For steel roofing the roofing shop has no delays either.
Shortages are not universal from my perspective.
And yet, you can find downward housing trends in the news as well. Take your pick. These articles tend to cherry pick locations to fit their message. :D
That being said, the real estate game is still hot. And that is mostly a money scheme around here, a buy and sell game. I'm sure lots would like to buy and stay put but no money to do it, just as they have no money to built it. I'd hardly call it a lack of homes, when it is actually a lack of affordability. That's not the same. Try and get a mortgage on a $350,000 home on $12/hr. No bank up here would lend it.
I wonder why there is labor shortages? Local fella here carpenters year around for a big building contractor. Been building 35 or 40 homes for residents on a local reservation. I don't see any local adds for carpenters around here. Some 2 or more hrs from here. But not huge numbers, maybe 20 people.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 30, 2022, 10:44:41 AM
The supply issue just depends on where you are. I can get all the construction material I want today, I'm just not going to pay their prices. It's not hard to get, it's hard to justify paying for. Not a mill around here without a yard full of lumber or OSB that I've seen. Some turning grey. Just came from town yesterday and piles of Arbek OSB stacked 5 bundles high all in wrap, not busted open. We make 99% of construction material right here, even the nails and screws. You go to the contractor counter and you get the good stuff and the staff that knows something. At the other counter for walk in and out sales, it's totally different experience. :D For steel roofing the roofing shop has no delays either.
Shortages are not universal from my perspective.
And yet, you can find downward housing trends in the news as well. Take your pick. These articles tend to cherry pick locations to fit their message. :D
That being said, the real estate game is still hot. And that is mostly a money scheme around here, a buy and sell game. I'm sure lots would like to buy and stay put but no money to do it, just as they have no money to built it. I'd hardly call it a lack of homes, when it is actually a lack of affordability. That's not the same. Try and get a mortgage on a $350,000 home on $12/hr. No bank up here would lend it.
I wonder why there is labor shortages? Local fella here carpenters year around for a big building contractor. Been building 35 or 40 homes for residents on a local reservation. I don't see any local adds for carpenters around here. Some 2 or more hrs from here. But not huge numbers, maybe 20 people.
It's definitely a local deal. Folks in Seattle have gobs of money and are willing to pay cash. I know local guys who had offers of million+ cash for houses. My house is gone this spring/summer. For us it's a lack of housing. Limited private land & dumb zoning laws mean a limited supply. Might be 10 houses for sale in my town and 10 in the next. That's for all price ranges. So sellers get top dollar.
The big metro regions have plenty of people with gobs of money. My wife's team doesn't have the affordability issue so much as ...anything. I drove through Manassas VA today, back in 2009 25% of the town was for sale. The worst in northern VA. Today I drove through 20 mins of suburban streets on a detour (well my son was driving) and we saw 1 sign out of hundreds and hundreds of houses. 1. It was under contract.
Plenty of houses for sale here. Some dropping prices. We really know how to keep out the riff raff :D
The big foreclosures isn't far off. You'll be getting your house before long, for a bargain. Yesterday's report of warnings by the Bank of Canada:
"When the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in two years earlier this month, it sent an unmistakable message to borrowers that the era of cheap money was coming to an end.
The bank's deputy governor at a speech in San Francisco this week, telling attendees at a monetary policy conference, that an uptick of household debt was worrisome and that the bank was prepared to act forcefully to ensure inflation doesn't run too hot for too long. She expects the pace and magnitude of interest rate increases ... to be active parts of deliberations at their next decision." [CBC reporting]
Bank of America projects 3.25% by next year, rising at every quarter meeting of the central bank. Then of course the chartered bank rates on top.
And most mortgage rates float, they aren't fixed. Well, they've got to do something to end this insanity. And it's coming quick apparently. So if Canada is doing it, the US is to.
No shortage of housing here, 15,000 new people came here to NB last year. They're not living in tents.
Since the all time mortgage rate low was Jan 2021 at 2.65 we could go a long long way up to get to just normal. Since the crash in 2007/8-2020 it has been just above 4%. Before that it was very much more expensive. My first home was 7.7% on a program for first time home buyers back in late 90s. If you bought homes back in the 80s you could pay 10% or more. Not sure it was ever less than 10% during Reagans terms and there were many great years of growth.
Since i have quite a lot at stake with our new purchase I've been studying both the supply and demand side of things. This means looking at wage growth, the historic mortgage rate movement, housing stock availability, what younger generation is doing, etc. The reason I feel pretty good is historical data. We failed to build a lot of housing following the crash of 07/08- we missed on 5 million units, demand is strong- in growing metro regions time on market is brief, corporate profits are at an all time high, inflation is very strong, and our immigrants pool over the last 20 years has become wealthier- buying homes faster (for about 100k a year they have to buy as a condition of immigration), and most states expect to cut state tax's or pay off debt early. All in all I can't find a single negative except that the LACK of housing may cause house prices to inflate too quickly. Based on how I see wage growth in metro regions, where most growth is, I think people that want houses will buy them and I think the market could do with another 3 million extra units. I think that's about what it needs to get enough liquidity so people stop bidding wars so that home price growth moderate. It might take the 5 million some estimate but i bet it happens faster. My bet is that it takes us 6 years going all out to get 5 million houses and I think it is supply, not demand, that drives things.
If it is demand than the average mortgage rate rise would need to add over $1000 a month to really have any impact and that would mean rates up at 6% and that would be if wage growth stops in metro regions. Based on what's happening in Nashville, Austin, Triangle, etc I don't see wage growth slowing. So, I don't think anything hits demand enough to impact a market that is short millions of units.
If you do see something, data based, from metro regions that concerns I'd appreciate any heads up. Our bear is nearly ready to get to work..fingers crossed.
i was talking to a carpenter i know last week he said a 8ft 2x4 is almost 10 bucks a sheet of advantec is 88
Lumber dropped $100/th and OSB dropped $150 per thousand sq feet, to $45/sheet 7/16" thick ($59 local). 23/32" Arbek OSB is CDN$80 a sheet local. She's on the slide, hopefully.
Local ski resort in So Indiana, owned by a big national company said they will pay minimum of $20.00 hour for people to work next winter. $7.00 an hour over what they are paying now.
We are a small rural county. Think this won't shake things up?
The inflation of 2019 for covid relief is what shook things up. Money supply and goods supply have a 1:1 ratio, an equilibrium. When you print a bunch of money it does not print goods so equilibrium is lost. They have a lag time to manufacture the increased quantity of goods and re-establish equilibrium. Prior to equilibrium being regained, the price of goods spikes or reprices to reflect the new ratio of money available to goods available. The value of the goods is unchanged, the value of the currency has diluted so it takes more currency to buy the same truck. Water your booze down and it takes more shots to get drunk.
In my opinion they call it inflation to obscure peoples understanding and prevent revolt. Inflation is a new coal mine or packing plant suddenly putting a thousand people to work and there is more cash in that immediate area, but not more goods. Its an isolated inflation. Thats what inflation defines, a rapid local increase in real earned wages where the dollar value across the globe is not modified.There is a boom of locally available money but goods needs time to catch up and equilize.
The central bank just printing it from a central location should be called dilution but is not. It causes rising prices across the entire planet, even in the poorest places without any new employers, because the corporate retailers know more money was printed and will close a walmart before they 'lose money.' But locally no new employer is hiring so poverty deepens.
So immediately after the money printing the natural thing for price setters is to say well, the money in circulation doubled so now our prices have to double. But that is a very very unpopular thing to do to the masses and will cause lasting resentment and lost customers. Hence the need to invent these shortage narratives even if your product ISNT stuck on a boat in long beach... to justify the price doubling without being called gougers.
The last thing to come into equilibrium is always wages, and they only rise when workers say oh my god, i cant pick up enough shifts at my job to stay afloat anymore. Bossman, i need a raise or you need a new employee. So wages rising actually signals a return to normalcy and equilibrium, its the last phase. When the price takers (the workers) actually say no and become price setters. Whether the workers universally refuse to work whether by unionized strike or by cost of living preventing them from being able to endure minimum wage any longer is irrelevant. Work stoppage equals wage increase. This always lags a round of money printing. A handout always increases worker shortage too so its no surprise that they came as a package deal in 2019.
The conundrum is that the federal govt is continually bleeding out more and more cash in the form of IOUs (tbills) on a graduated scale and the tbills just issued for covid, now for ukraine, next for another wall street and banking bailout then for the wiped out pensioners and vanished 401Ks etc etc. Continuaal normalized crisis.
The invoice on all these currency cannons we fire off will eventually come due and payable. You cant pay off credit card debt by shuffling balances among credit cards with 'no interest for 6 months' offers. You can only stall the inevitable liquidation, which is what we are doing. America is a business. Lowering taxes is popular on one side and giving more handouts is popular on the other. Democracy has a pre-installed crowd pleasing malfunction that causes us to do both, and this eventually makes the masses poor through printing money. Eventually poor people revolt and tear their system down, which is getting closer every year.
How long would your sawmill business last if you paid higher wages, more for logs and fuel and equipment but sold lumber for less? Cant pay out more than you take in without debt, which is enslavement, so sayeth the Lord in proverbs 22:7. the government is a business, it cant dole out more handouts while cutting taxes, and remain solvent but it does this, and thus enters debt. when govt has debt it and fiat currency it just prints more money. enslaving the citizenry with the situation we are in. having to make more money every single year until you die because savings no long appreciates and you cant sell your house to buy advil and milk. you need some disposable cash savings for that but its never enough and retirement evades the bulk of the population.
itll sink our ship just like it did Rome. Technology hasnt changed any of that, its is still very simple.
Enjoy it while ya can.
I think that is entry level salary. Right now average is $37hr at the big resorts here, those with experience.
A top exec at Applebee's just got thrown out for sending an email that suggested wages should drop because cost of living is rising, so we can get more hours for less out of the workers because no new jobs created. No option but to stay and work.
My buddy in the hvac union up north says theyre offering $52/hr plus full cadillac bennies and cant get anyone.
Weve been here before. This signals peak employment, which is a leading indicator of major market reversals.
Most experienced is around $48-54/hr at the big resorts up here. Just gleaming info here off sites that track it.
I find that hard to believe. I cant imagine working at a glorified hotel requires the same money it takes for someone to be on a winter rainy roof for a 3am hospital service call or crawling under rat infested houses or bat infested 130* attics to get workers to show up.
Quote from: mike_belben on March 31, 2022, 09:45:00 AM. . they're offering $52/hr plus full cadillac bennies and cant get anyone . .
Bunnies in Cadillacs!
Let the good times roll!
. . . . .
Oh. Misread that.
My American to Canadian translation is "full benefits".
Yours is funnier by far.
I don't, I knew a fella who worked in Whistler for big bucks and that's 25 years ago. But a place like Big Rock or Crabbe Mountain, your on the low end, there's no resorts there. Whistler is a $250M + a year revenue maker off tickets. Chateau Lake Louise makes $317,500 per employee, annual revenue there is $102M. There's big money. :D
A few years ago, when I still had an operational sawmill it was more cost effective for me to buy the 2X8s I needed for a project than cut the trees, get them to the mill, saw them, and bring the lumber to the job. A few weeks ago I needed some 2x4s. I was surprised at how many I didn't get for $700.00. A working sawmill wouldn't be bad now ;D
Although my pandemic spending didn't change much from pre-pandemic for many it would have.
I'm thinking that a majority of the "extra money" for building projects is coming from the drastically reduced daily spending that happened when things were shut down, when you look at the cost of dining out, going to a show, recreational shopping, grabbing lunch and/or coffee, vacation travelling, transportation etc. that suddenly stopped or were drastically reduced and add them up it should be significant.
Now factor in all the people that suddenly realized that they don't have to live in the centre of the universe to do their work and never dreamed they could own their own home there. They suddenly figured out that they could if they moved somewhere else, add the people that figured out that they could sell their house or condo and buy another somewhere and have several $100,000 left over, the people that kept noticing the lower covid rates away from big cities, the people that got laid off from the job that they hated but felt trapped in so decided to move and you get a big increase in demand and rising prices.
I see a lot of unfamiliar faces at the building supply store, some will get discouraged with slower pace and "lack of things to do" around here (sometimes you got to make your own fun) others already like it or will learn to enjoy it.
If they all want to go back west once she falls apart, and their houses drop in price to ground level, I won't stop'm. We have a term for that to, Skedaddlers. :)
My understanding is the US is looking at an official digital/ cryptocurrency. A few of the pundits suggest that the US$30.35 trillion US national debt will be vaporised or at least reduced if the greenback vanishes and a new cryptocurrency is introduced as a resetting of the system.
The 198 us short tons of gold mined in the US/2021 is not going to cover the big debt.
The immediate concern is the drought conditions that exist (29th March) across wide areas of US crop growing regions. Fire people are already in action.
| U.S. Drought Monitor (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx)
Rather than focusing on the numbers of homes in the US being built, perhaps there should be a focus on the quality of the homes being built as well.
Are the constructed/ assembled within a factory built homes in US, an improved quality compared to the on site builds.
This quality concern covers most of the Western World UK, Canada, Aus and NZ. YouTube Channel UK 'New Home Quality Control'
The apartment blocks of Australia abandoned due to safety concerns after columns crack. Canada in the past were leaky condos. US - past building booms look like speed of construction outweighs a mark& measure at phases during the build stages quality control process.
NZ has been garbage claddings, flat roof designs used in high rainfall areas, roof drainage piped through wall areas and many other poor building practices.
There is likely a singular global digital currency on the way but i cant really speculate very accurately on what itll be. Perhaps something like the SDR.
I anticipate the next banking crisis to cause a push for individual accounts at the federal reserve, like a social security number. And for debt discharging via bankruptcy to be highly curtailed, like fafsa student loans.
I can't see any debt being discharged by a digital currency. It would bring the moral risk of USA to that of China. I know we are working on it but I don't get it.
If someone wants to take a look at the USA vs China, I just found this; a good read. He actually makes the same comment that I've made many times. Housing is far too expensive in China based on other factors; that and the mis allocated capital (stupid mines, etc) mean that China has it's own special blend of stupid. He has a newsletter he'd send you if you ask for it.
How Does Excessive Debt Hurt an Economy? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86397)
He also weighs in on the impacts of the recent sudden increases in debt. His broad statement is that based on his studies the positive and negative impacts are underestimated.
When one looks for the reason for the massive shifts of assets to real estate and stocks you have to study the economy. It's not really the case that it's the debt ( as Mike is concerned about) that has caused the shifts; sorry it is not the US Govt printing money that caused real estate to inflate- it happened everywhere in the world over the last 2 decades. It's that there is no where to put money and hasn't been for almost 20 years. Software and other changes in the economy require very very little capital compared to the past. Take Apple for instance. It's worth well over a trillion. Ok, I looked it up= $2.85 trillion. That's more than the entire energy sector in the S&P (every oil company, every electric utility, etc). How much investment did Apple need to achieve this mind blowing value? Very little actually. Just a fraction of Exxon. So rather than needing $95 in investment to create $100 in profit (say this is Exxon), it requires $5 to create $100 in profit. It's a huge shift. Value with minimal investment. The very interesting side effect is that money wasn't required to deliver robust profits. Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, etc etc are all riding waves on relatively low capital needs compared to our economy prior to 1990. This has left capital looking for a home. It could go into all sorts of asset classes but not surprisingly it has (around the globe) chosen real estate from Japan to China to Germany to Saudi Arabia. What's somewhat ironic is that many on the forum encourage investing in land but bemoan the inflation in land values and it's all driven by the thing that brings us together, forum software and all it's wonderful cousins. We are our own worst enemies.
Anyway, long story short...I don't think there are many asset classes capable of absorbing wealth other than housing. There is literally no where else to put it except in a digital currency like bitcoin...which I still don't understand. Stocks could inflate more. I actually worry a lot more about deflation in China (Japanification) than inflation in the USA. For instance Mike's worry about Credit Card balances...they are over $100 billion lower than in 2019 before the pandemic. Poor people often paid off CC balances and they benefited from that. Serious delinquency is way down from a year ago by almost any category (Mortgage to student loans to autos).
The most holistic look would be US household debt as a percent of GDP. Basically it is about the lowest it's been in 15 years. It's not climbing year on year like it was doing during the housing bubble.
Household Debt to GDP for United States (HDTGPDUSQ163N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N)
There is a significant timber land sale happening right now in North Carolina, we are talking multiple thousand acre tracts, being sold together. Bid has been accepted, done deal, when it closes it will close for better than $30K / acre. Absolutely no other destination for that land than housing, high end, way over valued, Mc Mansion style, OSB and vinyl, housing. Makes absolutely no sense, is completely unsustainable, and un-affordable. There are simply not enough people, earning enough income, to keep pushing this along. It's going to break, and when it does the pain is going to hurt.
US CBP reported 165K encounters on the South West Border during February, 2022. Over 2 million during the 2021 calendar year.
Potentially a drift from the city urban areas. Those North Carolina areas are likely to be occupied at some time, though some log equipment sales and service will have to covert to earth moving.
Seemed to work out for West Germany to have half of a debt cancelled 1953 London. West German debt cut in half from DM 30 billion to DM 15 billion.
https://www.cadtm.org/How-Europe-cancelled-Germany-s
Top 3 US foreign debtholders 1- $1.3 Trillion, Japan, $1 Trillion China, and UK $650 Billion
Fairly simple technical analysis of longterm PE ratio will show that we printed our way out of the full pain of 2008/9 and forced the financial market upward when it wanted downward to perform the obligatory liqidative reset that a bubble demands. This is a normal and necessary function of free markets. Sort of like fevers are normal when a body is fighting infection. The taxpayer was forced to bail out the viruses and infections and kept them in the bloodstream to proliferate.
In my opinion it just means that we have prevented the economy's immune system from functioning as designed, because our industrial-political elite complex was not willing to endure the fever. so they meddled via TARP/QE (by printing debt in the form of Tbills and allowing the fed to buy wall street investment assets with the proceeds of sold debt) and surpressed it.
Preventing the expression of sickness by medically supressing the symptoms of it, has never cured a disease. That simply delays inevitable death from the disease.
The megaphone pattern of my lifetime is telling me that whenever this bubble pops we will have to pay not only the total cost for this keynesian malinvestment, but also finish paying for the flu the fed supressed by public debt in 09.
I hope to be mistaken. If i am right the great depression generation will pity us. I am bullish on Christ but not much else. Missing 10 upticks isnt as critical as dodging the one tidal wave crash. I just dont have the energy to rebuild from a 3rd wipeout and have grown comfortable living day to day on faith and freedom. I personally will shun speculative financial risk until the day trader suicide rate is unspeakable. Thats the bottom.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1204211004.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1638681706)
The mean is 17. Note how many standard deviations above the mean the dotcom bubble achieved. The penance should have been a similar number of deviations below the mean for a brief period to squeeze the puss out. TARP was able to prevent this by printing.
At the next crash, the free market will demand full repayment for the errors of now and then. If the fed tries to print their way out of this one it will result in a zimbabwe or brazil 89 level hyperinflation that spells the end of USA.
Naturally people with HUUUGE debts will benefit the most by repaying with diluted dollars a fraction of the true loan value, as the terms will not include an influation scaled modification clause. Many unscrupulous financialized people know this and go after maximum debt because of it.
Good to have eyes wide open but don't put dark shades on. You're looking at PE, sort of useless. Look at PEG. The lack of growth in an economy is a good sign of concern and is reflected in prices. Right now, I see years of growth but your milage may vary.
Quote from: Southside on March 31, 2022, 10:35:14 PM
There is a significant timber land sale happening right now in North Carolina, we are talking multiple thousand acre tracts, being sold together. Bid has been accepted, done deal, when it closes it will close for better than $30K / acre. Absolutely no other destination for that land than housing, high end, way over valued, Mc Mansion style, OSB and vinyl, housing. Makes absolutely no sense, is completely unsustainable, and un-affordable. There are simply not enough people, earning enough income, to keep pushing this along. It's going to break, and when it does the pain is going to hurt.
They plan to HBU much of it I guess. Unaffordable ? to whom? To a kid with a $90k signing bonus from Amazon? Probably not unaffordable and as long as interest rates are so low (below 6%) a lot of housing looks pretty cheap and there are no houses. Crappy homes I wouldn't want to live it but they've been doing this for 60 years and it has not crashed so I'd not bet against it.
Quote from: mike_belben on March 31, 2022, 11:18:24 PM
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/43722/1204211004.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1638681706)
The mean is 17. Note how many standard deviations above the mean the dotcom bubble achieved. The penance should have been a similar number of deviations below the mean for a brief period to squeeze the puss out. TARP was able to prevent this by printing.
At the next crash, the free market will demand full repayment for the errors of now and then. If the fed tries to print their way out of this one it will result in a zimbabwe or brazil 89 level hyperinflation that spells the end of USA.
Naturally people with HUUUGE debts will benefit the most by repaying with diluted dollars a fraction of the true loan value, as the terms will not include an influation scaled modification clause. Many unscrupulous financialized people know this and go after maximum debt because of it.
A caution: The dot com bubble reflected a fundamental shift in the economy. Amazon never looked back, neither did MS, etc. Almost no capital required (amazon plowed all earnings back into growth and no company in history could have done that to that point), Apple did it without building manufacturing plants anywhere. So they achieved fantastic growth rates. In the meantime China was deflating the cost of manufacturing and the combination meant you had to be really stupid to not grow earnings rapidly.
Lots of stupid out there, GM, Chrysler, Washington Mutual, Enron, etc but they were stupid places to park money and in terms of today they are meaningless. I would encourage you to look at the trend of increased virtualization and consider the implications as further legacy costs are shunted away. Things like landline infrastructure. In some places they've pulled the wires.
Lots of infrastructure and costs today are not aligned to current societal trends. Either the trends prove true- and those costs and infrastructure are sunk or the trends don't hold true- either something more interesting comes along or an external event. Solar would be an example, maybe it displaces natural gas peakers when paired with batteries. Or maybe the recent sustained Fusion reaction (in the UK the international consortium actually did it-amazing breakthrough) proves to be a commercial success and fusion reactors proliferate. If the later than all the current infrastructure back by bonds would be worthless overnight. Anyway, just pointing out that change is inevitable and generally over time its adding efficiency and productivity. The .com bubble was a burst of productivity growth unparalleled in modern history. That's the danger of looking at a PE chart in isolation.
There is also significant danger in offshoring manufacturing due to it being cheaper. We are just now seeing those seeds sprouting.
I just got 2 weeks off for saying what was really on my mind so i will stop here this time.
I disagree with everything NW just said.
So how does Apple recover when Foxconn decides they can design their own phones or China sides with Russia and bans all trade with the US? Seems like COVID gave us a preview of how outsourcing everything may not be a perfect solution.
In Spaceballs terms lumber must be back to "Ludicrous Price" as I see a couple older threads about sawing used RR ties and treated phone poles are coming back around.....
Skipped ludicrous and went to plaid
7/16th OSB @ 46 bucks US yesterday at Lowes. Time to go back to solid wood decking for floors, roof and siding. We only used the OSB because it was cheap and utilized what would otherwise be waste. In the 70s when I first saw it, 3/4 inch was 5 bucks.
I paid $7 for 1/2" 10 years ago.
There was a notorious meth crowd house on a small parcel near me that sold laat year and then got meticulously dismantled by a mexican family, men women and children. The materials have all been stacked and disapearing.
Im pretty certain they bought the house just for the materials savings. And since it looked like a bomb went off before they showed up im sure the bare clean lot will be
bring more than purchase price.
You can still get ahead with good old fashioned hard work.
About a month ago I paid 29.99 apiece for 2x10 10' spruce. It about made me sick. One of the most foolish mistakes I've made is not getting a bandmill when I had the chance. Passed on two different ones, a true boneheaded move.
longer term futures have been rising and nearer term contracts falling, makes more sense than the $300 spread that had been there. There's a bloke that writes about and speculates on lumber futures but I haven't seen anything new to him.
Bond yield curve has also inverted. A crash predictor.
Quote from: mike_belben on April 03, 2022, 02:41:51 PM
Bond yield curve has also inverted. A crash predictor.
I'd say the crash started in Feb 2020. With the amount of "stimulus money" that has been handed out, the general public didn't really notice until inflation showed its ugly head. The money printing was like putting a tiny band-aid on an arterial puncture while also pumping blood thinners into the wounded person.
Federal student loan relief ends may 1st.
Article claimed a survey found 89% of borrowers arent prepared to start making payments again, and that the avg FAFSA debt in my state is 36 grand. Note that it cannot be discharged.
Quote from: newoodguy78 on April 03, 2022, 11:13:19 AM
One of the most foolish mistakes I've made is not getting a bandmill when I had the chance. Passed on two different ones, a true boneheaded move.
I know where you can make a deal that's pretty sweet. Let me know if you decide to avoid #3. :D
pallet dropped to $45/t last friday and RO switch ties came down from $550 to $530/mbf doyle. fussy stick too.
As to the housing market, Canada's Federal cabinet will impose a $15 million-a year tax on house flippers (carpet bagers) and require all mortgage lenders to report cash transactions. Also taking aim at foreign speculators.
I saw where they were going after foreign speculators. Is it hong kong residents realizing they need a bolt hole from the CCP? or ?
How do you feel about it?
Money laundering
That's why they want cash sales reported
and they get outta Hong Kong free ticket
Cheers
Al
Banks and insurers face $1.1 billion in new federal taxes this year including a permanent higher rate that would make them the most heavily taxed corporations in Canada. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland also proposed a minimum tax on one percenters who “make significant use of deductions and tax credits.”
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday detailed billions in subsidies to boost new construction of about 20,000 homes a year nationwide. 40,000 annually are needed.
Why exactly are house flippers carpet baggers?
Because they are skyrocketing house prices by flipping houses and never live in them as a primary residence. They are individuals who are perceived to be exploiting the local populace for their own financial gain. I've seen this locally, and then they will disappear from the area.
What is actually wrong with that?
Making housing unaffordable through flipping is not something I would praise too highly. It's entirely different if I lived there and worked in the area for 10+ years and had to move to another job, as real estate value does climb and I would expect a little extra. And therefore I would not be required to pay income tax on that. Now there will be income tax on short term flippers.
Your house flippers Sounds eerily like the "timber jockeys " around here. They jump into the timber business don't own a saw and couldn't cut one if they had too. Don't have a clue about forest management and dont care to. the woods are left a wasteland when they're done. Buy low sell high exploit the high markets. Then poof they're gone. I try to educate the landowners about management. Most times seems to go in on ear out the other. As far as the "jockeys" go, As Much as I hate to see it it is still a free country. For now I guess. They move onto a different business and we are left to pick up the pieces
Honestly if they can make money flipping homes...which is a middle man type of thing I don't see the issue. More regulation doesn't seem to be the answer, maybe they should try a bit less. Let someone teardown a home and build a 4 story townhouse in it's place, etc. Local zoning keeps the market from responding to the price movement. Get rid of much of that and build homes, townhouses, condos what have you.
House flippers means you have an active strong real estate market and that bets the heck out of sitting for years waiting for a buyer when you need to sell.
Smart investors are just looking for a dis connect between markets. Doesn't matter if it is houses in Florida or California or corn or sunflower acreage or oil. Traders sit in the middle and make money. They also lose money. Right now they are making money but that could turn around in a hurry as we all saw in 2007/8.
There wasn't any, and that didn't work.
I sure don't have the answers. But I agree the less meddling the better, if we all assume things are legal. House pricing has been skyrocketing before the pandemic, and from what I recall in 2008, that set back in Canadian terms, was like pulling back on the sling shot and firing it off soon after and the projectile has never stopped. :D
A house flipper is using a real estate agency, just as the average Joe does. And likely a lawyer. Although I have seen some people who thought they bought a place, no lawyer, and the transaction for the deed transfer never took place. The seller took the money and still retained ownership. These are usually poor people buying bare lots and trying to cut corners and get burned.
One of the ten commandments "Thou shalt not covet" applies to many posts in this thread.
My interp, is it suggests we should not be jealous of what others do with their time, money, and energy.
Usually in the US flipping a house means buying, repairing or renovating, and selling at higher price because value has been added and the house is more appealing.
I understand where you're coming from beenthere, but what I see mostly is disparity and affordability issues. Ignoring it doesn't improve the situation, it hasn't worked in 20 years.I would rather collect what is due instead of subsidizing housing or land purchases. Subsidies make prices higher because the seller is dealing with people using money they don't have. The only thing from keeping a lot of people from leaving the cities for more affordable housing is the job market, wage level and benefits of the cities.
Quote from: btulloh on April 08, 2022, 07:32:53 PM
Usually in the US flipping a house means buying, repairing or renovating, and selling at higher price because value has been added and the house is more appealing.
That's one aspect of it, but it's also the constant turnover of housing in short term sales with zero improvements and paying no tax on the gains. Moving from one area to the next when the local market slows.
Meanwhile, 2x4 and OSB continue to fall this week.
$1600/th for 2" x 4" and $43.75/sheet 7/16" OSB
So the only thing keeping people from leaving city for affordable housing is ....they make more money in the city and most people like cities? So the market is working, good. Keep them in the cities. Wish it was working a bit better.
So Russia may default this month. Going to be interesting to see how that impacts the lumber market. Fed watchers say the market believe the Fed, finally. Treasury and Fed are supposed to start cutting 100 billion a month in assets. Bout time. They built up 2 trillion over the last couple of years and if you go back to 2007/8 ...a couple more trillion. That's about 4 years of correction but if they stick to it we could unwind all the past housing errors by 2027/8 or so (being generous with time).
Speculators are going to make and lose fortunes in the commodity markets in that time.
Just keep inviting more friends over to live and pay rent with you. :D
Why would Russia default? I will bet Europe will freeze to death first. When you block someone's ability to pay, I would assume you don't want to be paid.
Down here you have to hold a property for a year to qualify for capital gains, live in it for 2 years you get a real sweet break. $250k single, $500k filing jointly. At least the FED isn't going to keep rates low for too long like they did after the dot com bubble burst.
Quote from: nativewolf on April 09, 2022, 07:20:50 AM
So the only thing keeping people from leaving city for affordable housing is ....they make more money in the city and most people like cities? So the market is working, good. Keep them in the cities. Wish it was working a bit better.
..........
Well, that used to be the case. Folks would work and live in the city for the big bucks, then buy or rent places in the country to spend some of that cash on weekends and all was pretty good. Then COVID hit and with the internet presence available, many of these folks left the city and bought whatever they could find at some crazy money and worked remotely. Many dumped their city residences which gave them even more working cash.
This trend still continues and the result is anyone who was born and raised here cannot afford to buy a modest house to raise a family of their own. Those places all got bought for crazy money and built up into fancy places or rented out as B&B's. Bare land prices are nuts.
The place just 1/4 mile down the road from me sold for $375k a year before COVID hit. In the middle of COVID, that house sold again for $675k (less than 2 years later). Many houses sell for more than asking price within 48 hours. That's not 'normal'.
During the pandemic, most ingress into my area were retired folks buying old farm houses for double the money. Well double the money is double of $45,000-55,000. I can name off four within 4 miles. One fellow is replacing the old structure he bought last December and down sizing this summer. He's the only one of those 4 with family here. In fact he used to live across the road. I'd say he has moved 4 times in 20 years. But there was one house here that was $189,000 3 years ago, sold last year for $320,000, a local family. That got resold because it was part of a farm sale, so they got $20,000 profit in the flip (no improvements) before realtor 5%, taxes, and lawyer fee to transfer. But you could build it for $240,000. ;)
Rough cut 1" boards working out to about half the price of OSB for builders here locally and 1/4 the price of plywood is what they are saying
Around here in new home construction everything is sheeted with plywood. And more often than not it has a built in barrier film, and they tape all the joints to make an "envelope".
Full time house flippers here have to pay taxes, no different than fixing up machinery and selling for a profit. I believe you are allowed to flip one house per year if it is not your main job. You can live in and sell your house tax free if lived in for that one year minimum.
Also people should move more. Too many people aren't willing to move to a place they can get a job and afford. They'd rather just work part time and complain about outsiders raising housing prices. Plenty of jobs out there and affordable houses if one is willing to move.
Softwood Lumber futures closed at $950/mbf Friday April 8th.
$1 bf/ft will buy as much green Red Oak FAS 4/4 as you want. A buying opportunity at that price.
Going in the right direction anyway. I say that because that plantation spruce is not that valuable, they aren't paying much at all at the stump. $280/th for private woodlot wood and way less off public land. ;) Half what it sold for in the late 90's and early 2000's. And lumber price back then was not even anywhere near what it is now.
Quote from: quilbilly on April 09, 2022, 01:31:21 PM
Full time house flippers here have to pay taxes, no different than fixing up machinery and selling for a profit. I believe you are allowed to flip one house per year if it is not your main job. You can live in and sell your house tax free if lived in for that one year minimum.
Also people should move more. Too many people aren’t willing to move to a place they can get a job and afford. They’d rather just work part time and complain about outsiders raising housing prices. Plenty of jobs out there and affordable houses if one is willing to move.
Yes, a principle residence and no tax at sale time, except property tax, and no term attached to that. You are also except 1 year of not residing in it before the sale. And again, not all flips have reno's to improve anything.
And I don't agree with your last statement. Those that want work are seeking it, they are not finding affordable housing. Coming here to NB to retire is not looking for work. More often then not, the affordable house is in an economically depressed area. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on April 10, 2022, 06:20:49 AM
Quote from: quilbilly on April 09, 2022, 01:31:21 PM
Full time house flippers here have to pay taxes, no different than fixing up machinery and selling for a profit. I believe you are allowed to flip one house per year if it is not your main job. You can live in and sell your house tax free if lived in for that one year minimum.
Also people should move more. Too many people aren't willing to move to a place they can get a job and afford. They'd rather just work part time and complain about outsiders raising housing prices. Plenty of jobs out there and affordable houses if one is willing to move.
Yes, a principle residence and no tax at sale time, except property tax, and no term attached to that. You are also except 1 year of not residing in it before the sale. And again, not all flips have reno's to improve anything.
And I don't agree with your last statement. Those that want work are seeking it, they are not finding affordable housing. Coming here to NB to retire is not looking for work. More often then not, the affordable house is in an economically depressed area. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Of course we are speaking of two different situations, since we are in different countries and on opposite ends of those countries. I see Canada imposed a moratorium on foreign buyers of housing.
I am in one of the fastest rising property markets in the US. Locals can barely afford rent and are lucky to buy a house. However they could've moved 3 hours away and got an affordable house and a job at the same wage if they wanted to. But most are content to make barely above minimum wage and complain about the house price. Sounds like a different situation. I had multiple acquaintances go to the oil fields out of high school to save up enough money to move back and buy a house. It worked for them. Others could've done it but chose not to.
I know and know of a lot of folks who were out in Alberta during the boom. They could not afford housing and often none to be had. They stayed in travel trailers or onsite trailer parks or commuted every 2 weeks, maybe 4 weeks back to their loved ones. One of those guys is a neighbor here, decided to work for a building contractor the last four years, bought a lot and put a camp on it, off grid. Works at building homes year around, can't afford one. Alberta is a dust bowl for oil patch jobs now thanks to government climate mandates. Chasing the money doesn't always build the dream.
Quote from: stavebuyer on April 10, 2022, 05:37:09 AM
Softwood Lumber futures closed at $950/mbf Friday April 8th.
$1 bf/ft will buy as much green Red Oak FAS 4/4 as you want. A buying opportunity at that price.
Recently I have sawed 4 sides clear r/o and b/o into 12x12 blocking because that is what logs I had. Some of these logs would have been rotary or better. What a shame.
A red oak cross laminated timber wall would look awesome.
Panama City Paper Mill to close (wjhg.com) (https://www.wjhg.com/2022/04/07/panama-city-paper-mill-close/)
Here's the link I watch on lumber Futures as well as gas prices at NY harbour (NB uses it as an index for our pump prices).
c1 CME RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES price information - FT.com (https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Lumber)
Here are market prices of lumber, panel goods, and pulp I watch.
Current lumber, pulp and panel prices (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/domestic-and-international-markets/current-lumber-pulp-panel-prices/13309#softwood)
Futures still falling, $874.20 in yesterday's trading.
OSB prices for plain old generic 7/16" x 4' x 8' in Buffalo NY this morning ( 4/13/22 ).
Lowes.............$45.95
Home Depot....$43.55.......69+ sheets $39.20 max of 90 sheets.
THEY CAN STUFF THAT OSB WHERE THE SUN DON'T SHINE :o :D
Ground contact AC2 pressure treated 2x6x10 are running THREE DOLLARS CHEAPER :o
each than the price of regular construction framing 2x6x10 at my local big-box (mail in your receipt for that rebate :D) store.
Bank of Canada rate was hiked 0.5% today.
A buddy that builds out near Kenora, ON told me that when he was framing a building this winter, he used the pt 2x6's because they were less expensive. And they were in stock.
Some prices from a local lumber store yesterday; 2x8x12=$16.20, 1x6x8=$7.00,treated 2x4x10=$9.75, pressure treated 2x4x8=$7.80 1/2" cdx=$48.00,3/8" cdx=$32.00
Lumber and panel prices continue to fall and have started a steeper fall recently.
Lumber prices are falling, but I see futures are up some from last week.
Red Oak and Walnut both dropped in all grades and thicknesses this week in the HMR. Maple and Ash continue to rise. Bizarre for Maple to climb going into "stain season".
Quote from: stavebuyer on April 27, 2022, 06:57:52 AM
Red Oak and Walnut both dropped in all grades and thicknesses this week in the HMR. Maple and Ash continue to rise. Bizarre for Maple to climb going into "stain season".
I always wondered how they buy, truck, sort and saw fast enough to keep it white.
I've seen veneer maple in Columbia's yard where they kept it watered to keep them from drying and staining. But most of the maple for veneer we moved was winter cut, significant volumes were often cut on 4 woodlots to get a full load.
Watering helps minimize stain in birch and maple, but it is still more of an issue in the summer than winter. 10ft logs are preferred for that reason to make 8ft veneer. The extra trim costs more, but the increase value in veneer recovery makes up for the 2ft of waste.
For the lumber products the mills here have almost all moved to dip tanks to prevent stain.
In the "stain season" we sawed HM every Monday and shipped that afternoon. We had a cabinet customer 1/2 mile down the road and still sometimes had stain issues.
Dipping Maple degrades the color. Many customers will not accept dipped lumber or watered logs. The lumber will be off-white or cream colored and not snow white.
I tried spraying hard maple with the stuff I use on pine. It did not work so well. For me , being so small, white maple is too much work and worry while the colored woods are so forgiving.
Maple darkens anyway, just like white pine does. There might be a few finishes that slow the process, but it's going to darken. It will even darken between being kilned and stacked outside the kiln in a warehouse. Only time I've had white sugar maple was when it was cut from the stump and fresh sawed. By the time it air dried it darkens anyway. I might not have used trailer loads of it, but enough to know what happens, and it doesn't take years.
Softwood lumber futures dipped yesterday to 780/thous
Poplar and Red Oak both dropped across all grades and thickness again this week's HMR report.
"Bark Season" is upon us, and a full week's sunshine is in the forecast locally for the first time in a long while.
Sell it while you can.
Fuel keeps going up. Lumber will stop selling.
Random length futures shows over $1000 here.
There was an uptick in 2 x 4" price last week, to CDN$1400.
Utility and composite grade US$950
Western 2 x 4" US$1100
Random length futures dropped $84 today, to $920. Market price on 2 x 4 is no change, around CDN$1400.
#2 1x12 pine selling for $3.00 FT at the local
lumber yard. Won't be buying any of that or anything else there for that matter.
I bought some PT lumber today in northern Maine close to the Canadian border and deep into the Irving Kingdom. ;D
It'll be delivered next week. Hope it's nice. The store owner said lucky me the price is down.
#1 2x6x16=21.99
2x6x10=12.99
2x6x8=8.99
2x10x16=37.99
2×10×12=28.99
40 - 50% higher up here at Kent (Irving's flagship building centre). Probably cheaper in Yarmouth, NS, same store. :D
I walked across the Kent lumber yard this week but never looked to see who's lumber they had but I can tell you for certain that at one time (4 or 5 years ago) there was not one stick of Irving lumber in the yard.
I made a comment to the store assistant manager while he was pricing up my list, he said that the Irving lumber rep asked him the same thing two weeks earlier to which he replied "your prices are too high".
They delivered the lumber today. Beautiful p.t. southern yellow pine. :)
Wasn't red pine? That's all we see here is red pine.
Quote from: Hilltop366 on May 14, 2022, 05:56:39 PM
I walked across the Kent lumber yard this week but never looked to see who's lumber they had but I can tell you for certain that at one time (4 or 5 years ago) there was not one stick of Irving lumber in the yard.
I made a comment to the store assistant manager while he was pricing up my list, he said that the Irving lumber rep asked him the same thing two weeks earlier to which he replied "your prices are too high".
A lot here in their yards comes out of Quebec.
Meanwhile I drive by Crabbe's mill and their yard is stuffed full, their yard goes up over a hill to another level, you don't see half of the lumber piled up. All out in the rain and sun to. :D
What mill stamp is on that pine MH?
Can Red pine be pressure treated?
Quote from: customsawyer on May 17, 2022, 03:44:36 AM
Can Red pine be pressure treated?
From what I can see it takes pressure treatment same as most other pines, so Yes.
It gets sold in the general SPF grade.
Quote from: Ianab on May 17, 2022, 05:41:28 AM
Quote from: customsawyer on May 17, 2022, 03:44:36 AM
Can Red pine be pressure treated?
From what I can see it takes pressure treatment same as most other pines, so Yes.
It gets sold in the general SPF grade.
Red pine can be mixed in the SPF(S), South, species group, it is not allowed in the general SPF species group. That's a strength issue. It does treat, but not as well as the southern yellow pines. Red pine is our only native relative of the european pine, pinus sylvestris, scots pine. I wouldn't be surprised to see SYP anywhere, it travels :).
Always though red pine went for poles. It sure saws nice however.
I thought Red Pine was more closely related to European Black Pine?
Red pine is one of our major commercial species up here. Primary uses are studs, treated lumber, pallet, and utility poles.
X2. Around here red pine was planted like a row crop, the best trees are cut for utility poles. And for dimensional lumber it goes to Biewer sawmill in Prentice (WI), where they saw millions of board feet of it for the treating and construction industry.
It was nice not having to sort thru the piles to find quality. ;)
Riddle me this. Looks like it is being shipped north and then treated in N.Y. or Mass.?
Wow. The mill is In Bristol Florida.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/13635/20220517_063553.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1652808093)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/13635/20220517_122804.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1652808104)
Put more dry wood on a truck or train than treated.
I've got treated red pine posts on the porches here. Floor decking is treated spruce and one deck is white cedar.
There are two groups of pines. The white pines that have five needles to the fascicles (needles in bundles of five), also called the soft pines, and the yellow pines with either 2 needles or 3 needles to the fascicle, also called the hard pines.
Red pine is in the yellow pine group. There are a number of yellow pines such as red pine, Jack pine, lodge pole pine, pitch pine, pond pine, table mountain pine, sand pine, Virginia pine, and spruce pine. Lobolloy, shortleaf, slash, and longleaf are also in the yellow pine group, but are classed separately as the four major Southern yellow pines (SYP) because of their much higher strength and density.
Quote from: Southside on May 17, 2022, 02:48:31 PM
Put more dry wood on a truck or train than treated.
Also cheaper not to have all the hazardous materials and its regulations to deal with.
Alright Danny, you always have to remind us northern guys how much stronger your SYP is, don't you?😁
From ring counts I have determined that red pine was planted around here from 1928 to 1950 +- on abandon hay fields. This is not pine country but a long long time ago there where stands. The old timers , back when this rural wanted to see pine. Red pine would be the fits all as it is stronger than white but can be used where ever white would. From what I gather most of these lots grew very slow, changed hands and where never thinned. Almost all have gone to the wood chipper and the land to housing. White pine would have done better.
moodnacreek we have a lot of red pine plantations up here, state and county reforestation areas (abandoned farmland). This page tells the story better than I can: History Of State Forest Program - NYS Dept. of Environmental Conservation (https://www.dec.ny.gov/lands/4982.html)
Nowadays stumpage is selling for a lot of money out of those stands, especially if they were thinned and grew high quality poles.
Succession is taking over and as the pines are harvested the hardwoods that got established in the understory are released. The system worked :o :D
Quote from: moodnacreek on May 17, 2022, 06:44:21 PM
From ring counts I have determined that red pine was planted around here from 1928 to 1950 +- on abandon hay fields. This is not pine country but a long long time ago there where stands. The old timers , back when this rural wanted to see pine. Red pine would be the fits all as it is stronger than white but can be used where ever white would. From what I gather most of these lots grew very slow, changed hands and where never thinned. Almost all have gone to the wood chipper and the land to housing. White pine would have done better.
The growth rings are incredible. The year after the pith growth is abouth 1/2 inch. Every year after about 1/4 inch. The 2x6 board I'm looking at is about 10 years old. :D
Quote from: Mooseherder on May 17, 2022, 01:26:50 PM
It was nice not having to sort thru the piles to find quality. ;)
Riddle me this. Looks like it is being shipped north and then treated in N.Y. or Mass.?
In
Wow. The mill is In Bristol Florida.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/13635/20220517_063553.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1652808093)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/13635/20220517_122804.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1652808104)
Looking at the stamp, the lumber was graded #1 at mill #338 under Timber Products Inspection's oversight, one of the grading agencies. It was then shipped to the treaters up north who are treating under the oversight of Southern Pine Inspection Bureau, a different grading agency. Ding Ding. Use Category 4A is ground contact, in the old CCA it would have been .60 pcf stuff. Good stuff. Foundation grade is UC4B. Watch the big boxes they can have stuff treated for indoor use ::). The treated our little building supply does a good trade in is usually #1 and nice stuff.
That's pushing the envelope growth rate wise. The percentage of latewood, the width of the dark ring, is the key when looking at it strengthwise. Wide latewood bands are strong, thin, light latewood bands are weak and will drop the grade. Bold grained yellow pine is strong, you can feel the difference when you pick up equally dry dense vs non-dense sticks.
I think I have a pic in the gallery that shows band width and specific gravity of dougfir, same idea.
Here it is;
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/001.jpg?easyrotate_cache=1512682861)
That old growth fifty-eleven rings per inch stuff Bubba's been braggin about... ;) :).
I can't stand cutting that wide ring pine. Gum cants move less on the mill than that stuff does.
Sounds like I asked the right question to get the juices flowing. Thanks for all of the info gents.
April new home sales numbers;
Sales dropped 16.6% from March
Sales down 26.9% =vs April 2021
Annualized projected sales dropped to 591K units from 750K
Stock market decline has wiped off 5 trillion in "wealth" since January. Rich people aren't quite as rich and working folks are spending their pay raises on gas and groceries. Demand for houses hasn't changed but people's ability to pay for them has.
Demand for lumber will ease as people are priced out of building.
All of the excavating and lot prep were done for a new local church and I heard yesterday that they are now on hold as projected costs for the actual building have gone up 40% from expected, what will the social security cost of living increase be next year?
You can bet it won't come anywhere close to the inflation rate.
SS increase will probably be same as Canada Pension, only goes up by a few dollars a month, wouldn't amount to $200 a year more. When my grandfather was first getting his pension he could buy a brand new F150 pickup every year. Not gonna now, that's how out of step the Canada Pension plan is, underfunded. You can bet government union pensions are out pacing them. Government has lost lots of money speculating with their union pension money, and they've always topped them up, so they are not subject to risk like you and me on private plans. If your on a company pension, and it goes down, you have nothing. Companies have been known to steal from the fund for operating capital when they are about to go bust. Landegger did it. Not long after, he was caught for tax evasion. Some of that pension money went in his pocket. Like I told anyone at a mill, you better put your money into your own pension fund because it won't be there when you retire. Been several mills over the years that have defaulted. No legal recourse.
I visited one of my old partners mills this morning and asked him about the large number of 4x6 cants stacked about. He said he had confirmed purchase orders for 4 of the 7 loads he had piled up and the buyer was balking about picking them up citing excess inventory and slower sales. Nationwide buyer. He found an alternative at a lower price. I see mostly full log yards at area mills. We got another raise on stave logs while thick stock White Oak lumber is dropping. I'd be moving all I could before the July 4 holiday.
2x4" softwood lumber and panel prices haven't budge much for a month. Been a flat line on the price side.
Don't know when will see at it retail but lumber futures are flirting with $600/mbf
Lumber PRICE Today | Lumber Spot Price Chart | (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price?op=1)
SS cost of living adjustment was 5.9%, highest in 40 years.
Ohio Valley Veneer lowered their Walnut log pricing 500/mbf across the board effective June 13th. They are one of the larger Walnut sawlog buyers here.
Bought a sheet of 1/2" CDX pine sheathing plywood last week. $46.
Prices fell to CDN$950/th on 2x4" #2 and better.
Panel prices have not budged much since early March.
From what I'm reading, lumber prices are falling, around $600/1000. Of course, that's not the retail segment.
For those of you out there 'in the know', what's your prediction for how long this will take to trickle down to the local retailers? Also, how long do you think it is going to take for stumpage prices to crater?
I talked to a l logger last week. He says he is seeing that mills are full of logs and they are cutting their hours back. He thinks a price pullback is in the very near future.
August we'll possibly see it, if the hurricanes don't blow everyone down.
OSB is way too high yet for junk wood and glue.
At the local Home Depot 2x4x8 are $5.50 each. OSB is mid $20s a sheet. I think some of it is showing already.
My trucker told me that the mill I sent my w/pine too, just raised the price to $300.mbf for #1 and clear went to $400.
A 2 x 6 x 16' #2 should be CDN$14 it's more than double that locally.
7/16" - 4 x 8' is CDN $39 locally.
2 x 4 x 8' are CDN $7.28 locally, should be half that.
Today, in southern France; kiln dried russian larch, 424bdft (one cubic meter) 1785.71€ 1857.57$ All taxes included. 4.38$ a bdft.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on June 14, 2022, 05:04:47 PM. . should be half that. .
Agreed.
Completely.
However, what kind of stock market crash and chaos would it take for the price of commodities to go back to pre-virus levels?
We're looking at price gouging and can't do much about it.
Don't consume it, it's the only form of protest that matters as far as profits are concerned. Rest of my thoughts don't belong on this part of the forum... :)
In new york's north country where I go to camp and goof off, small sawmills are booked sawing out green pine or hemlock framing lumber. Those who buy their logs are having trouble getting them. same with firewood logs. I see state d.o.t. road side jobs using rough cut local lumber. The little guy, if he has the wood, can really compete now.
Governments are pretty much going to force a recession with higher interest, then lumber price will fall. The US Fed just adjusted by 3/4% this week.
From business insider June 11:
Lumber prices have been on a steep decline as a combination of rising interest rates, record-high inflation and a red-hot housing market translate into fewer people being able to afford to buy their own home.
Prices are down about 50% year-to-date, recently dropping to their lowest point in 9 months (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/lumber-prices-mortgage-housing-demand-plummets-lowest-level-two-decades-2022-6?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets) trading below the $600-per-thousand-board-feet mark. This marks a stark turnaround from 12 months ago, when prices hit a record $1,733, as pent-up demand for construction and home improvement after the pandemic fueled a speculative frenzy.
Lumber 2x4" fell to CDN$700/th this week according to Madison's figures. Local prices are still sky high though. OSB still 3x as high as 2019. And $60 for 1/2" spruce plywood, way too high. There's certainly no scarcity of spruce for studs or veneer. I saw 3 loads of studwood heading into the mill Wednesday afternoon. That's just a small snapshot in time. And their yard has never been empty of lumber all through the piece. :D :D
flatbed freight from up here is slowing down. mostly lumber. it seems there is some in fighting between a couple of the bigger lumber mills
Century Aluminum in Hawesville, KY the county's largest employer and a major supplier of aluminum is closing it's doors indefinitely due to increased energy costs.
Lumber will soon be really cheap.
Century Aluminum to Temporarily Idle Its Hawesville Smelter (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/06/22/2467497/0/en/Century-Aluminum-to-Temporarily-Idle-Its-Hawesville-Smelter-Due-to-Soaring-Energy-Prices-Issues-WARN-Notice-to-Employees.html)
9-12 months they say til energy prices fall.
Aluminum smelters up here are on cheap hydro and that is the only reason they are here, cheap power. The one I was in, they own the power generation. They are all on sea ports and also have rail.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on June 26, 2022, 03:37:43 AM
Aluminum smelters up here are on cheap hydro and that is the only reason they are here, cheap power. The one I was in, they own the power generation. They are all on sea ports and also have rail.
The biggest cost in smelting aluminium is the electricity, there is still a large smelter here here in NZ that basically hogs 5,000 GwH annually from a nearby hydro. Shipping the ore in, and the metal out is chump change compared to the electric bill.
Economics of that might change in the future if we need the power for electric cars? Even Iron refining may switch to electric (from coal). There are 2 alternative methods, arc furnace or hydrogen reduction, but both needs heaps of electric power.
KY, TN and North AL used to have plentiful low-cost electricity. It was based on coal and cheap transport of coal by barge. Oak Ridge and plentiful electricity were crucial to the Manhattan Project.
Those coal plants have all been forced out.
I have a security camera and 1 light bulb running 24/7 in my old log yard office. I use less than $5 a month but with adjustments and add-ons for "green power" the bill is $30.
I don't have a clue if the aluminum plant in Hawesville will re-open but I guarantee if it does it won't be because the electric rates got lower unless some politicians subsidize them and add the difference to my bill.
Red Oak and White Oak green lumber down in all grades and thicknesses in this week's HMR along with upper grades of Yellow Poplar.
FAS 4/4 RO is now down to 1055 per mbf.
July will be interesting.
The kiln dried prices are down pretty much across the board also.
Been an uptick in futures and market price of 2x4" material this week. Locally, #2 and better is still way high.
Panel prices are starting downward. CDN$15 a sheet OSB 7/16". Locally it's still $33 a sheet.
Interest rates have started falling, 10 years moved quite a bit this week.
7/16 OSB at Home Depot is $21.05, can't remember what it peaked at but it's still high although better.
Talked stumpage prices with the Forester we are working for the other day. He says he has not seen stumpage prices drop as of yet. Said he doesn't understand how the mills are paying as much as they are with the rising costs of everything associated with their business. Some of the local mills have dropped their prices slightly for gate wood, but nothing dramatic that I have seen or heard of
$21.05 for sheathing grade. $32 for smooth surface paintable.
7/16" OSB $12 a sheet national average this week, but locally still $31.
#2 2x6x16' $27, still double what it should be locally.
National average CDN$780/th for 2 x 4 x 8', we are well above (CDN$1200/th) average locally. Futures are only US$680 (CDN$816). That's the way stuff always works around here, charge us way more than 1000 miles down the road.
1/2" spruce plywood still sky high at $56 locally.
7/16 OSB $19.65 here now. I need 24 sheets to use as interior paneling in my office/man cave room I'm building in a corner of my new pole building.
One of the larger regional wholesale lumber concerns has quit giving PO's for White Oak 1C and better as they have multiple millions of feet in inventory and no matching sales interest. A few months back lumber mills were outbidding stave mills on logs. That little trend is long gone.
Do you think the price on chestnut oak logs will drop drastically ? Its still high in the southern Tennessee area. And I have alot to cut . Nice timber. Hope it don't crash !
With the price of white oak lumber dropping, you should anticipate the price of logs to follow suit at some point in the future. There may be a lag as is usual but the laws of economics are not in your favor.
Quartersawn oak log prices have already started to ease. Chestnut Oak will drop quicker than true White Oak as it is of no interest to the cooperage market. I would do all I could to get Chestnut oak sold.
Yes chestnut oak is getting ready to take a hit.
Thats what im concerned about. Going to concentrate on cutting the chestnut oak and save the white oak . I think the stave prices will stay strong in this area. They dont have any inventory of logs now. And it has been dry and perfect weather to log. Come winter they will be in a tight spot .
I suspect prices of softwood lumber and panels to take a big fall soon as the Bank of Canada is raising rates by 3/4% this week. And Canada and the US always discuss interest rate moves. There are some houses here listed for double the price they were 4 years ago. Half a Mil. for a 3200 sq foot bungalow is a bit much, especially since it in a rural setting and always will be. ::) The only time we have housing boons, is when new government jobs come online and lots of boomers retiring. That's what built up Grafton and Bull Road. There was no manufacturing, mining, gas projects, zippo in those areas. We are over bloated with government.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 14, 2022, 04:38:44 AM
I suspect prices of softwood lumber and panels to take a big fall soon as the Bank of Canada is raising rates by 3/4% this week. And Canada and the US always discuss interest rate moves. There are some houses here listed for double the price they were 4 years ago. Half a Mil. for a 3200 sq foot bungalow is a bit much, especially since it in a rural setting and always will be. ::) The only time we have housing boons, is when new government jobs come online and lots of boomers retiring. That's what built up Grafton and Bull Road. There was no manufacturing, mining, gas projects, zippo in those areas. We are over bloated with government.
Canada has been overbloated with government for a long time Swamp but don't worry we are right behind you.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 14, 2022, 04:38:44 AM
I suspect prices of softwood lumber and panels to take a big fall soon as the Bank of Canada is raising rates by 3/4% this week. And Canada and the US always discuss interest rate moves. There are some houses here listed for double the price they were 4 years ago. Half a Mil. for a 3200 sq foot bungalow is a bit much, especially since it in a rural setting and always will be. ::) The only time we have housing boons, is when new government jobs come online and lots of boomers retiring. That's what built up Grafton and Bull Road. There was no manufacturing, mining, gas projects, zippo in those areas. We are over bloated with government.
BoC did a full 1% move on Tuesday. Locally, housing resale has really slowed down and homes are not selling above asking. Listing prices are still 30-40% too high for starter homes, though higher end homes are coming down faster. I'm not sure what's happening with new construction, but the new subdivisions don't seem to be slowing down.
There is a lot of pent up demand for homes and lots of people moved from stock market to housing. Interest rate are higher now and maybe enough to cut froth but rates of 6-7 percent don't stop many buyers. With oil and gas prices falling some maybe they nail the soft landing? I would be happy with real estate moving sideways for 3 years but I am not selling.
In lumber nees the local treatment yard was almost bare. Diesel was at $5.19 in Opal VA
Local Amish mill just lowered Oak prices 100mbf across the board. Record number of home buyers failed to close sales contracts last month. The Crypto evaporation of a few trillion is going to expose some collateral damage. Musk could be among them.
1/2" box store plywood still 40.00$ here.
Home sales in June were up 10% over the 5 year average here in NB and 29% of the 10 year. But did drop 3.7% from the previous June.
The average home in New Brunswick was selling for $172,200 in April 2019. In April 2022 the average was $313,700. I will attest that that is driven by out of province immigration. Local people are not driving it. I know several old houses here all bought by outsiders and drove prices up. Many of them have them relisted already, like I told ya they would. It's totally a speculator's market. New Brunswick is no longer a cheap place to buy a house.
Still too much easy money and no interest on savings to speak of. I remember when savings was 12% and maybe 18%. In 2000 maybe 4% at best and now, not even 1%.
Gas dropped 8 cents a litre this week, the first move in 3 weeks.
Aspen plywood 1/2" sanded $73 a sheet. Homedepot.ca :D :D :D $53 a sheet for 1/2" spruce.
1/2" CDX sheathing steadily dropping in price. $37 now, was $40 a week ago .
2x6x8 studs $10, Box shop prices.
Nothing to do with lumber but I just picked up some bagged 14% feed for my heifers. I bought a pallet of it May 26th for $8.75/50lb bag. Today the same feed was $12.50/50lb bag.
The winter wheat I combined and carried to the co-op a couple of weeks ago was paying over $10 / BU, in normal times $5 is awesome, so yea, it's all going to keep getting more expensive.
I see most of Homedepot.ca hardwood plywoods are from Columbia Forest Products. They have a mill in Presque Isle, Maine. They've always sent buyers for veneer logs in New Brunswick. We never had large volumes but they were always interested and they hired the trucking. Chances are we are buying our own wood back. ;)
I wonder what potatoes are going to do this year? I see a lot less grown. Almost all are contract from large farmers. Potato chips, dehydrated products, french fries. Locally processed. This is a potato belt. The field beside the house here, 100 acres is all wheat this year. Said his wheat was going to a dog food maker.
Dogs have to eat, too.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 16, 2022, 05:17:32 AM
Home sales in June were up 10% over the 5 year average here in NB and 29% of the 10 year. But did drop 3.7% from the previous June.
The average home in New Brunswick was selling for $172,200 in April 2019. In April 2022 the average was $313,700. I will attest that that is driven by out of province immigration. Local people are not driving it. I know several old houses here all bought by outsiders and drove prices up. Many of them have them relisted already, like I told ya they would. It's totally a speculator's market. New Brunswick is no longer a cheap place to buy a house.
Still too much easy money and no interest on savings to speak of. I remember when savings was 12% and maybe 18%. In 2000 maybe 4% at best and now, not even 1%.
Gas dropped 8 cents a litre this week, the first move in 3 weeks.
Aspen plywood 1/2" sanded $73 a sheet. Homedepot.ca :D :D :D $53 a sheet for 1/2" spruce.
The emboldened above is amazing. I am not aware ever of that large of an increase that fast, that is nuts.
It sure is.
I think in most of Tennessee real estate has gone up more than that, at least in any area closer to a bigger town.
Just around the corner from me there is a place for sale, 6.62 acre, 1100 sq ft, 3 bed, 1 bath barn and 2 car garage ...........$400,000
IMHO its maybe a $150k place.
it scares me to thin what my 26acres with house and barn would sell for.
If your on the selling end your happy as a billy goat 🐐. And if your on the buying end mad as a hornet 🐝. 😂
Dad's house in Gafton on 1-1/2 acres was $290,000 (after finishing the basement) when sold by our buyer in 2019, now listed for $520,000. ::)
Those of you who have a good sense of historical prices... these real estate prices you mention are nuts... if we were to have a horrific recession/depression, do you think they would reverse or is it once there, always there?
As for raw land, I don't ever remember in my lifetime a period when land went down significantly. If it did, it sure didn't stay there long. I dunno about houses or land with houses.
Same could be asked of trucks/cars, equipment, machinery. For the average person in the USA, housing and transportation prices are the two biggies.
A friend of mine that has seen the hardest of times and was forced to have a farm sale on equipment years ago and the list goes on! Is the same one that has a place in Florida and has bought and sold several farm land tracts for four times and more. That adds up in a hurry when farm ground goes up 3 to 7 k acre that adds up quick. Like he says if you want to get rich! Buy things that appreciate and if you want to go broke! Buy things that depreciate. I've had my share of setbacks! Sometimes the best way to learn is the hard road!
Quote from: Walnut Beast on July 17, 2022, 06:15:49 PM
A friend of mine that has seen the hardest of times and was forced to have a farm sale on equipment years ago and the list goes on! Is the same one that has a place in Florida and has bought and sold several farm land tracts for four times and more. That adds up in a hurry when farm ground goes up 3 to 7 k acre that adds up quick. Like he says if you want to get rich! Buy things that appreciate and if you want to go broke! Buy things that depreciate. I've had my share of setbacks! Sometimes the best way to learn is the hard road!
Education is expensive if you get self taught or ivy league taught.
Pickup my raw land for $6.000 30 years ago' 27ac
Ask if I would take $650,000 + this year.
Told the man NO.
Roots too deep here. ;)
Box store 2x4x8 under $5.00 now
Just off the top of my head during the farm crisis of the 80's land prices dropped considerably. Home values dropped a little from the savings and loan collapse. The Great Recession hit home prices and raw land too.
Having said that Freddie Mac estimates the US is short 3.8 million housing units. When inventory starts to climb that will be time to worry.
We lost most of a decade of home building and that's a lot of ground to make up. Gas was $3.79 in Front Royal VA this evening. Diesel was back down to just over $5 in Opal VA. That should cut the inflation situation a bit, this last month we have 1-4 trucks show up any day we call and to me that means there is some trucking because we have always struggled with trucks. Lumber in Lowes was down this weekend too.
I listened to a contrarian on a podcast the other day, I believe she used to work for the fed, said we are really only short about a million homes and much of the math is a cook the books situation from realtors double counting and projections that aren't taking into account current demographics and lifestyles.
I think the biggest thing is affordability. A new house available that isn't within your means isn't going to do you any bit of good. You can build those 3.8M homes, but it will be like those ghost cities in China, no one can afford them. You think it works different over here? How many homeless are in the US living in tents? Oh, they did something wrong I guess. :D You have the king pins at the top driving prices. What happened to all those abandoned homes in 2008? Whole suburbs. You never hear a peep.
Several years ago a estate planner told me you would be surprised how many people living in the big fancy houses with the big fancy cars that when the smoke settles what their actual net worth is.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on July 19, 2022, 03:25:08 AM
I think the biggest thing is affordability. A new house available that isn't within your means isn't going to do you any bit of good. You can build those 3.8M homes, but it will be like those ghost cities in China, no one can afford them. You think it works different over here? How many homeless are in the US living in tents? Oh, they did something wrong I guess. :D You have the king pins at the top driving prices. What happened to all those abandoned homes in 2008? Whole suburbs. You never hear a peep.
They all got resold at lower prices, investors snapped up many thus, many are rentals. I agree affordability is important, in our closest little town they are putting in the first big subdivision in 2 decades and they built some townhouses (high density and more affordable) but they are doing 100 mcmansions (low density and not affordable).
Kind of hope the developer gets caught with his pants down on the mcmansions.
Around here folks are getting quoted $300+ / square foot to build on land they own, and I am talking a nice home, nothing fancy or ornate.
some kind of crazy. These mcmansions are 4k+ sqft maybe 6k. Dirtwork and proffers had to make the lots some kind of pricey. They'll be pushing 2 million I guess.
Gotta be a lot of people with deep pockets in your area. The only mansion near these parts is Allison McCain's. His father never had a house anywhere as big as that 3 story motel. And it was his father and uncle who built the empire. Spend'r if you've got'r. What in the world do you do with so much house? :D
A lot of the ones from the roaring '20's got turned into multi unit apartments in their final demise. I would be less concerned with spanking the developer, he is responding to the whims of the market. That is where the thinking problem is, our "wants". There will always be a few castles. we have somehow screwed up our minds to thinking every wannabee needs a castle. Enough of them are barren inside, spending money we don't have to impress people we don't know.
Agree Don, that's sort of like the guy who logs with a farm tractor wishing doom onto the guy who goes full mechanical.
Quote from: Southside on July 19, 2022, 07:10:45 AM
Around here folks are getting quoted $300+ / square foot to build on land they own, and I am talking a nice home, nothing fancy or ornate.
Sheesh, this is insane. A 2,000 sq ft home would be $600,000. I can't wrap my head around that.
Quote from: Southside on July 19, 2022, 07:10:45 AM
Around here folks are getting quoted $300+ / square foot to build on land they own, and I am talking a nice home, nothing fancy or ornate.
That's the same here. You can get one of the slap em up pre planned crews for about 150-200/ft depending on the model. 15 years ago those same guys were doing it for 40-50. Anything even semi custom though is $300/ft and they've got work lined up for 2 years or so. What we really need out here are masons. Almost none around and folks need their imitation river rock chimney.
Those who are spending their money is what keeps people working.
I suspect they are spending the banks money.
The job figures, it turns out can't even be trusted. Recent audit up here showed unproven/unsubstantiated numbers drummed up under a federal program. Of those that were suppose to be real, a 5th of those claimed, they lack evidence of existence. :D
#1 pressure treated syp 2x6x16= 17.99 yesterday at small but wonderful hardware store.
Invest in plywood for your retirement future .
About 2 years ago and current price, identical nails;
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10017/000_0010.JPG?easyrotate_cache=1658782286)
Lumber is part of it but the nickel and dime stuff is really adding up.
So it appears lumber prices are dropping like a lead balloon . I won't be the local hero much longer. The real problem for me is my fuel cost. It was good [for me] while it lasted.
Lots of thoughts on this as I heal up (and I will say that this robotic surgery was just amazing. Just amazing- on my feet and eating most foods and using bathroom and no pain meds but for Advil).
A lot of new mills were built over the last 4 years in a belt across the south from TX to FL so capacity finally caught up to demand just as demand started to fall due to raging inflation.
Gas prices are falling, housing sales have slowed a lot, walmart cut earning forecasts, etc. OTOH manufacturing growth is strong, labor is tight, wages have stayed up. What happens now will be studied by economics students for decades to come. Coin toss for a sharp recession or soft landing. Will be interesting and will surely be impacted by global events in China and Europe. At the end of the day we're short some housing- 1 million or 3 million units -who knows. We're short some.
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Red Oak/White Oak/ Hard Maple/Poplar/Walnut lumber pretty well down across all grades. Ash is holding but most of ours is gone. Red Oak is getting to the point that if you figure a 300mbf saw bill and 300mbf logging bill there is very little left for stumpage. When landowners pull the plug is usually what stops the free fall.
Interest rates went from 2 1/2% to 5 1/2%. On a $400,000 loan, that is $12,000/ year or $1000/mo just in extra interest making the monthly payment out of reach for a good number of people. Any wonder people quit buying. But then again, rents are soaring, so what is a person to do. A lot of people are going to get run over by the bus.
A lot of people up here have built tiny homes or shacks in the last 3-4 years, that's what they are doing. I know of 5 here in a 5 mile circle. I know of two outfits building them, but I know even more that built their own. They are sitting in rural places where old homesteads once sat. Most are off grid around here, solar and battery. Three of the 5 that I know of are on family land. But living in shacks is nothing new. Been going on for a long time.
Saw this last night went to a box store. Must be giving up on trying to peddle that junk. Probably will be a bargain bundle outside...
They still had knotty waney crappy studs at 5.84. With a foot and half of sort culls on top and beside the pile. 3/8 plywood was 34.00. Supposedly OSB is around 14.00$. I didn't check. Hardly anyone working not very many folks shopping. I picked up my rolls of drain tile and got out of there.
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Bought two nice 8' treated 4"x4"s at HD yesterday.$10.99 a piece. My locust is all gone and need foundation for drying platform.The last treated I bought was a couple years ago.6"x6"x20' was $125 a piece.This was for sawmill foundation.
Softwood 2" x 4" x 8' economy grade locally is $4.14 each ($781/th). But according to surveys it has been on a slow steady decline since August, now @$650/th. OSB price has been pretty steady $12.50/sheet according to surveys. But local price is however @ $21/sheet for 7/16" OSB. [Natural Resources Canada]
Bit the bullet the other day and bought a lift of cdx ended up about 20.00$ a sheet and 15 sheets of OSB it ended up around 12.00$. 2x4 x8 were still over 5.00$. The sheeting pile is tarped and an 8 ft air drying roof is over that. Not much will happen with it before next summer.
Stopped by Home Depot yesterday in Oxford Ms to pick up some nails an noticed spruce 2x4s were $3.74. I'll bet they will be higher in the spring. House building around here is wide open at about $150/ft for a good quality house if you own the dirt, so I have been told. Makes me want to stop thinking about building.
price of spruce logs is dropping
100/m january 1st. buyer informed me yesterday
I had my logger haul +/- 1000' of walnut logs to be sawn by a local Amish mill. I picked up the 4/4 and paid the saw bill today. First time I had been to his mill. Nice setup. He runs two large (2") band-mills. A Timber Buddy like Barge Monkey just installed and a slightly larger Tru-Cut that is similar to the big Baker.
The lumber was well manufactured. The bill was $.25 a bd ft. I still have to separate the lengths and put it on sticks. I will take a few pictures as I go through it. Not much way to compete with $.25 :o
Impossible to compete with that, unreal they can operate that equipment for that price.
Quote from: stavebuyer on December 15, 2022, 05:08:09 PM
I had my logger haul +/- 1000' of walnut logs to be sawn by a local Amish mill. I picked up the 4/4 and paid the saw bill today. First time I had been to his mill. Nice setup. He runs two large (2") band-mills. A Timber Buddy like Barge Monkey just installed and a slightly larger Tru-Cut that is similar to the big Baker.
The lumber was well manufactured. The bill was $.25 a bd ft. I still have to separate the lengths and put it on sticks. I will take a few pictures as I go through it. Not much way to compete with $.25 :o
What's your plans for the lumber stave? Personal use I assume? I had the idea here awhile back to have a local mill that has a big woodmizer saw my walnut sawlogs and I'd sell the lumber. At that time the numbers didn't work. That may change and I hope it does at some point cause I'd like to try it to see if my dreams of owning a woodmizer and doing that are just that- a dream or nightmare
Picked up some 2x4-10' KD today 9.49 apiece. Priced a sheet of 3/4 AC that would've been $99 a sheet needless to say I left without it.
The lumberyard owner said his prices have dropped drastically in the last 2 weeks.
Often times when I see the title of this thread I question if "too high" is bad for people in our position. I know that for the economy as a whole, we need lower lumber prices so more houses are built, etc, etc, but at the same time I would be lying if I said the high prices haven't created opportunities for me. Many of my past jobs this last summer were people that compared the cost of what I could saw lumber for to what they would pay at the lumber yard. During normal times, it often wouldn't pay to saw commodity lumber but recently it has been possible because of the high retail prices. For my personal use I never use to waste my time with 2 x 4's because you could buy them so cheap. Recently I have. Again, not arguing to say this recent price surge is good for our economy. At the same time I'm acknowledging that it has created opportunities. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but it would be different if the higher prices meant more money was being made by loggers and landowners. I think that's not the case. It's being made by middle men and speculators. Me, being one of the middle men sawing the lumber is someone that has benefited.
The only way I could saw that cheap was at the big mill and I had everything dialed in for production. Here sawing for John Q Public I haven't been at 25 cents a BF for close to 20 years. When you factor in unloading the logs, loading the lumber, and the time spent on each end of that I don't see how they are making any profit. Of course I hear the Amish don't have to have all the different types of insurance and such as that either, so that would help but not enough.
The Amish remind me of northern New Brunswickers. In times when the wood market was tight and the price was rock bottom they would still cut and move wood when everyone else would park equipment. The industry can always count on people that are willing to work for next to nothing. I remember one operation over near Tracadie-Shiela where they were cutting jack pine by hand and it barely made fence post size, it was a plantation. That stuff took a lot of cut'n to make a cord, 4 foot stuff. Not big enough for 8', too small on the top, at that length. :o
OH Logger, I didn't and still don't have a plan for the lumber. Nothing new LOL. Just was half a tandem load of logs on a hard to access tract I decided to have sawn rather than sell cheap in a down market.
But to answer your question there is no doubt it could be a profitable arrangement to have the Amish do the sawing and then do some retailing of the lumber. Especially for a logger who could hand pick the logs that fit into the scheme like the aforementioned Walnut I had. You couldn't saw them yourself at $.25, especially not on a bandmill. I got 1346' of lumber out of 994' of Doyle scaled logs.
The challenge is finding a home for all of it. Using it yourself it's not a problem. Selling it to the public they generally want to pick through the stack for long, wide, and clear.
Most likely the Walnut will gather dust like the large stacks of Sassafras and ERC that I seldom touch but won't part with lol
Money in the bank if it's decent lumber and kept out of the weather and powder beetles. ;D
Some of the Walnut lumber the Amish sawed for me @$.25. Lot of sorting and sticking to be done but the wind is brutal today so I will wait for a better day. Walnut is pretty forgiving dead stacked in freezing weather.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/25189/050BF98C-7398-4178-9E5E-3221409E0362.jpeg?easyrotate_cache=1671211815)
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/25189/E9A9990F-DD96-4A6E-8570-AAD183D17355.jpeg?easyrotate_cache=1671212119)
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Nice stash of lumber. I've bought worst, dried. A lot of it was flat but curved right or left. Lovely stuff. And the stack was well pawed over to. :D I've only used short pieces anyway and some for accent wood. I bet nothing has been longer than 20". Quite certain a lot of limb wood causing all the bends. ;D
Funny how the larger of the mini bandsaw mills went away and the Amish are bringing them back. I think down south it was S&W and up north east Sanborn. I could never see how you could run them without a debarker mill. I use a mud saw but if the mud is frozen [on the bottom] I am done. That 25 cents b.f., I don't want to hear about :).
Quote from: stavebuyer on December 16, 2022, 03:07:45 AMMost likely the Walnut will gather dust like the large stacks of Sassafras and ERC that I seldom touch but won't part with
That belongs in a woodworker porn novel somewhere.
I was ready to send a pm after the first half of the sentence and then just like Lucy and the football... I'm staring at the sky, foiled again :D
Looks good! Always good to have a stash.
Got wind of a sale last weekend picked up 100 2x4x8 spf at a local box store for 2.00, if I remember to get the rebate sent.
I needed a comparison price for some lumber that I used on a recent project.
12' 1X6 = $12.99.
I quoted that to my Monday's customer and he felt really good about having 1018bf of 16' & 18' 1X6's sawn.
We were moving and restacking some 4/4 WO yesterday. I had pawed through the stack for modest grade porch flooring and left the clears to restack. We were passing the time counting the $50 Lowes price per board :D
In 1987 I sheeted my roof and two floors with these .Would hate to try it now.
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Prices for eastern SPF 2x4x8' have been around $600/th national average. Locally $750/th CDN
OSB has been around $9.50 a sheet national average. Locally $16.50/sheet, shop grade.
Prices have been fairly steady on 2 x 4" x 8' and 7/16" OSB for the last month, with a slight downward trend.
The commercial market for pine timber has returned to its proper place. I'm not sure when the retail aspect will be back to usual. They've actually quadrupled in the last two years. I'd recommend investing in a sawmill!
Wow, been a while since I've purchased lumber from a retailer.
A client need some #2 1x4 pine. $1 per lineal ft ! Thats $3 dollars + a bd ft for
# 2 1x4s !
Hammond lumber Co. They bought out the local competition in this immediate area quite a few years ago and now can gouge all they want.
CDN$5.40/b-ft here for 1"x4"x8' clear pine, $3 for knotty pine.
$1.10/b-ft for #2 - 2"x6"x16' spruce, was $0.70 - 3 years ago.
National average for 2" x 4" x 8' spruce 0.55/b-ft, local is $0.73/b-ft.
Most everything costs more in the Maritimes. They think we are some kind of elite class. :D :D
Softwood and panel prices have not moved much since February.
I don't see any new house construction in these parts.
Canadian wildfires shutter sawmills, drive up lumber prices (https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/canadian-wildfires-shutter-sawmills-drive-up-lumber-prices-2023-06-12/)
Not seeing that trend in national weekly average data. Maybe a couple more weeks out?
Weekly softwood lumber prices in NA (https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/domestic-and-international-markets/current-lumber-pulp-panel-prices/13309#softwood)
SW Lumber prices (national average) have settled back to June prices. However, 7/16" OSB jumped $200 per thousand square feet (to CDN $22.88/sheet ). Kraft pulp prices have fallen since March.